Dragon spruce (Picea asperata Mast.) is widely planted on clear-cuts from natural subalpine coniferous forests in western Sichuan. To assess the natural regeneration potential of this species in spruce plantations of different ages, field studies on the seed rain, seed bank, and seedling recruitment were conducted in 20-year, 30-year, and 60-year plantations, and in a retained natural forest ca. 150 years old for comparison. Moreover, a series of temperature and light regimes were also designed in March 2003 to test germination/dormancy responses of the P. asperata seeds to different conditions. In the plantations considered, both the densities of seed rain and soil seed bank increased with increasing stand age, whereas they were both low beneath the natural forest partially due to low adult density of P. asperata adult trees. P. asperata has a transient seed bank, and ca. 60% of seeds were found in the litter layer. Seed decay and seed predation were the two most important factors affecting soil seed bank dynamics, which caused a number of seed losses from the soil. Only a small fraction germinated and produced seedlings, and the indices of the losses from the seed bank via germination in the 30-year plantation, 60-year plantation and natural forest were 4.75, 5.10, and 2.80%, respectively. High seedling mortality was observed after seedling emergence, and most of the germinated seedlings died out within one growing season. The P. asperata seeds showed a high percent germination and no significant differences under most light and temperature regimes except for full sunlight or temperature below 5°C. In conclusion, despite a substantial number of seed produced, the high depletion of soil seed, the low seedling output, and high seedling mortality may obscure the natural regeneration potential of this tree species.