Natural Rate Of Unemployment Research Articles

Investment and the long swings of unemployment

AbstractWe estimate the medium‐term relationship between investment and unemployment over the period 1960–2017 in 20 OECD countries, a period that includes the years of the Great Recession. While neoclassical growth theory typically assumes full employment—with no effect of investment on unemployment—and New‐Keynesian models assume that such a relationship only exists in the short term at business cycle frequencies, we find that over our sample period covering more than 5 decades, a statistically significant negative relationship does exist: in decades when investment fell, unemployment increased. Panel estimation, using a measure of stock market volatility as an instrument for investment, confirms the negative relationship between investment and unemployment. High stock market volatility and low investment are associated with high unemployment, other things equal. The evidence supports both Keynes' ideas about an unemployment equilibrium as well as more recent investment‐based theories of the natural rate of unemployment.

The Intergenerational Effects of Recessions

Several studies analyze the contemporaneous effects of recessions on individuals and their children. This paper shows that recessions also affect future offspring, not born yet. By linking fathers and offspring from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find that a percentage‐point increase in the national unemployment rate experienced by men between ages 16 and 20 reduces their future offspring's annual wages by 4 percent, occupational prestige by 3 percent, and education by 0.2 years. We then investigate the mechanisms explaining our findings.

Milton Friedman and the Road to Monetarism: A Review Essay

Milton Friedman and the Road to Monetarism: A Review Essay

YOUTH EMPOWERMENT IN NATIONAL SPORTS INDUSTRY AS A COMPONENT OF APPRECIATING PLURALISM AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

This paper focuses on a balanced, integrated and blended effort at every level of government administration and community structure to empower and strengthen the nation's sports industry. In accordance with the endemic era, it was then used as an element of appreciation for the unity of Malaysia's plural society. This paper attempts to address the following topics: (i) the potential income of youth through the sports industry; (ii) The status and future prospects of the country's sports industry; (iii) The Ministry of Youth and National Sports Key Performance Index target and unemployment among the youth; (iv) Challenges and empowerment on the implementation of the term youth age limit; and (v) The spirit of Malaysian Family Sports. The primary objective of the discussion is to identify the debate regarding the government's role and efforts to align national sports with national development. In reality, the method utilised by the Ministry of Youth and National Sports is competitive with foreign sports industries. This paper uses secondary sources, such as research results published in journals, scholarly writing, online news sources, and public forums, to employ a qualitative methodology. According to the findings of the study, the progressive development of the country's sports industry can generate numerous benefits for individuals, communities, and the country, thereby boosting the country's total income and economy. Therefore, drastic measures must be taken so that the development of the sports industry is in line with the development of the nation and is not solely dependent on the Ministry of Youth and National Sports.

Analyzing the causal relationship between the variables of economic stability in Iraq using Granger's causality

Economic stability is the state or position in which the full employment of the available economic resources or what is known as the gross domestic product possible is achieved and the occurrence of unemployment is avoided, up to the natural rate of unemployment and the avoidance of large changes in the general level of prices which it mean keeping inflation rates at controlled levels in light of Maintaining an appropriate real growth rate in real output. Therefore, economic policy and economic decision-makers in all developed and developing countries have attached great importance to this, and they have solid convictions of adopting macroeconomic policies to influence the specific variables that affect it to restore the economy to a state of balance and stability away from economic fluctuations.

Search, technology choice, and unemployment

AbstractTechnology variations among countries account for a significant part of their income differences. In this paper, a firm's technology choice is embedded in a search theoretic framework for unemployment. More advanced technology is assumed to have a higher setup cost, but it is more productive. The model is tractable and the following results are derived analytically. An increase in the unemployment benefit leads to an increase in the equilibrium wage rate, giving an incentive to firms to choose a more advanced technology. Thus, this result regarding unemployment insurance in models with wage posting carries through with Nash bargaining as well. As a consequence, the equilibrium unemployment rate increases. Furthermore, an increase in the bargaining power of workers increases the unemployment rate but has an ambiguous impact on the equilibrium level of technology and the wage rate. Finally, an increase in the exogenous job separation rate or the interest rate increases the unemployment rate and decreases the wage rate but does not affect the equilibrium level of technology.

Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends

In Spain, the youth unemployment rate is one of the highest in the European Union. With the pandemic caused by Covid-19, young people face high unemployment rates and are more vulnerable to a decrease in labour demand. This paper analyses and predicts youth unemployment using Google Trends indices in Spain for the period between the first quarter of 2004 and the second quarter of 2021, being the first work to carry out this study for Spain and the first to use the regional approach for the country. Vector autoregressive Bayesian models and vector error correction models have been used for national data, and Bayesian panel data models and fixed effects model for regional data. The results confirm that forecasts based on Google Trends data are more accurate in predicting the youth unemployment rate.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the EAC tourism and hospitality industry

Worldwide, the COVID-19 epidemic has impacted all economies. The study examines the impact of the pandemic on the tourism and hospitality industry in East African Community member nations. This study is a systematic review of Covid19’s influence on the tourist and hospitality industries. The analysis is based on 54 publications collected from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. The current study was motivated by an extensive review of literature. According to these studies, the spread of COVID-19 disease to workers in the tourism industry has put the sector in jeopardy; travel restrictions and tourism guidance have made tourism and hospitality industry suffer from severe reduction of revenues. All these studies however do not clarify how, the pandemic has impacted tourism and hospitality industry in terms of national park visitors, hotel occupancy, and unemployment in particular. Therefore, the current study assesses the impact of COVID-19’s on tourism and hospitality in the EAC Partner States by using such indicators as the number of international tourists, receipts and tourism jobs generated, visitors to the parks and the rates of hotel occupancy. The study’s findings show that the EAC Partner States lost USD 4.8 billion in foreign tourist earnings and two million jobs in the tourism sector due to COVID-19. The numbers of visitors to the National parks decreased by 65 percent, hotels in the region had an average occupancy rate of less than 30 per cent, which had a substantial impact on their operations. The study recommends to actors in tourism destinations, to have pandemic preparedness and risk management plans.

Lucas and Tobin: Debating the New Classical Challenge to Keynesian Economics

ABSTRACT The future Nobel laureates Robert Lucas and James Tobin debated the New Classical challenge to the microeconomic foundations and empirical validity of Keynesian economics, with Lucas singling Tobin out as an interlocutor among Keynesian economists who took the New Classical challenge seriously. Their intellectual exchanges began with Tobin, ‘The Wage-Price Mechanism: Overview of the Conference’ (1972), and Lucas, ‘Econometric Testing of the Natural Rate Hypothesis’ (1972), both in Otto Eckstein, ed., The Econometrics of Price Determination Conference (1972). That conference was a milestone in confronting alternative macroeconomic methodologies with each other, but has received relatively little attention in the literature, most notably from Stanley Fischer (in JMCB Supplement, 2007), who characterized ‘that volume as representative of the best thinking of the time on the Phillips curve.’ This paper examines the debate between Lucas and Tobin that began with their contributions to that conference and that reached a climax with Tobin’s Yrjö Jahnsson Lectures (Asset Accumulation and Economic Activity, 1980) and Lucas’s Journal of Economic Literature review article on those lectures.

Modeling unemployment duration, determinants and insurance premium pricing of Malaysia: insights from an upper middle-income developing country.

This paper investigates the behavior and determinants of unemployment in Malaysia, an upper middle-income country with relatively low unemployment but rising labor market mismatches, and derives a model-based insurance premium pricing schedule that broadens the country's unemployment insurance coverage. The unemployment profile is best fitted with Burr distribution, and using survival analysis, the average unemployment duration is found to be the highest for the youths and it decreases gradually after age 20. The results of the Cox proportional hazards model show that age, gender, and education are significant explanatory variables of unemployment. While all age groups are statistically significant in explaining unemployment, the youngest cohort has the least likelihood of being hired, while the older groups are found to have a lower hazard ratio that could be attributed to work experience. The significant gender effect is also characterized by the female workforce taking a longer time to exit unemployment as shown by its lower hazard rate than male workers. Similar to findings for other countries, those with higher education have the highest chance of gaining employment. Fitting the estimated parameters to a standard unemployment insurance premium pricing framework based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the analysis shows that the coverage of the existing national unemployment insurance scheme can be expanded to all income categories at lower premium prices. The widening of the coverage will contribute to the strengthening of the country’s social safety net in addition to reducing inequalities in the post-COVID-19 period.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43546-022-00287-2.

Doubts on natural rate of unemployment: Evidence and policy implications

This study aims to revisit the nature of unemployment dynamics in Asian and OECD countries from 1998 to 2018 by employing a novel nonlinear unit root test developed by Park and Shintani (2016). We specify a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with two specifications to detect the presence of natural rate, hysteresis, and a permanent shift of natural rate of unemployment due to economic or structural changes. Empirical evidence is important to give guidance for policymakers to make effective stabilization policies when having doubts on the natural rate hypothesis. The findings in this study confirm the presence of hysteresis unemployment in many Asian and OECD countries while some countries are found to have a permanent shift of natural rate, thereby giving support to more activist stabilization policies.

Безробіття та бідність в Україні: актуальні проблеми і шляхи вирішення

The issue of improving the welfare of the population is becoming increasingly important. The article analyzes the dynamics of the unemployment rate in Ukraine for the period 2010-2020, and also identifies the structure of the unemployed population due to unemployment in 2020. The causes and features of unemployment in Ukraine are identified, as well as its negative and positive consequences are emphasized. The peculiarities of the natural rate of unemployment and the complexity of its calculation are detailed. The relationship between unemployment and poverty is described. The dynamics of the subsistence level in Ukraine for 2010-2020 is analyzed and compared with the international standard. Possibilities of reduction of the level of the specified phenomena and their influence are defined.

A 'Natural' Suicide Rate, Hysteresis or Suicide Persistence? Evidence from U.S. State Level Panel Data,1980-2020

Abstract A growing literature probing the natural suicide rate hypothesis appears to have split into two factions. The first focuses on testing the strictly positive rate premise using 'ideal' socioeconomic conditioned empirically predicted values. The second examines the stationarity of the suicide rate time series. By exploiting an expansive (4 decade) panel of U.S. state-level suicide rates and characteristics, this paper aims to debit the inventories of both factions of the literature. Regarding the first, we provide a long-panel (3 decade) test of the strictly positive rate hypothesis where results reinforce the growing consensus that, even under the most pristine socioeconomic state, suicide occurrence endures. Additionally, we test the stationarity of U.S. suicide rates over time. Using panel methods that allow for cross-sectional dependence and structural deviations, we find strong evidence of non-stationarity (unit root) for the common factors of suicide rates in the U.S. This latter finding casts doubt on the usefulness of the natural suicide rate hypothesis. Keywords: Natural suicide rate, Unit root, Panel data. JEL Classifications: C32, C33, R12.

The Medicaid expansion of the Affordable Care Act and participation of patients with Medicaid in cancer clinical trials.

6505 Background: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid Expansion (ME) resulted in increased use of Medicaid insurance nationwide. However, the impact of the ACA ME on access to clinical trials has not been examined. Methods: We examined the number and proportion of patients insured by Medicaid at enrollment over time using data from the SWOG Cancer Research Network. We examined all patients 18-64 years old enrolled to treatment trials between April 1, 1992 to February 28, 2020 using Medicaid vs. private insurance. Interrupted time-series analysis was used; first implementation of the ACA ME (in 2014) was the independent exposure variable. Segmented logistic regression was used to estimate the difference between actual enrollment of patients using Medicaid to the expected rate had the ACA ME not been implemented. To account for secular trends related to economic conditions, we adjusted for the monthly unemployment rate using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Indicator variables to reflect administrative differences in Medicaid by presidential administration were included. Results: In total, 47,042 patients age < 65 years were analyzed, including 31,565 (67.1%) females, 18,987 (40.4%) age < 50 years, and 4,709 (10.0%) with Medicaid coverage. Overall, a 20% (OR = 1.20, 95% CI, 1.11-1.30, p <.001) increase per year in the odds of patients using Medicaid was detected following the ACA ME. Based on pre-ACA patterns, the proportion of patients using Medicaid decreased during periods of economic growth and low unemployment; thus, the model-based estimate of the proportion of patients with Medicaid insurance had the ACA ME not occurred was only 7.4% (95% CI, 4.8%-9.5%) at the end of the study period (February 2020), when national unemployment was low (3.5%). In contrast, the actual rate was 20.8% (95% CI, 17.1%-25.0%). Patterns were consistent by age but not by sex, with a stronger 29% (OR = 1.29, 95% CI, 1.17-1.42, p <.001) annual increase in the proportion of Medicaid use for female patients compared to only 7% (OR = 1.07, 95% CI, 0.94-1.23, p =.26) for males. The increase per year of Medicaid use for patients from states that implemented the ME in 2014 or 2015 was 27% (OR = 1.27, 95% CI, 1.16-1.41, p <.001) compared to 7% for patients from other states (OR = 1.07, 95% CI, 0.94-1.22, p =.28). Conclusions: The implementation of the ACA ME was associated with nearly a threefold increase (20.8% vs. 7.4%) in the proportion of patients using Medicaid in cancer clinical trials by early 2020. Improved access to clinical trials for more vulnerable patients is critical for improving confidence that trial findings apply to the general cancer population. These findings suggest that the recently enacted Cancer Treatment Act – which mandates that state Medicaid programs cover the routine care costs of clinical trial participation – may continue to improve access to clinical trials for those with Medicaid insurance.

Industrial relations and unemployment benefit schemes in the Visegrad countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic and technological adjustment increased the risk of unemployment, underemployment and skills mismatch across Europe. These increased risks highlighted the importance of national unemployment benefit schemes for income security. This article examines the role of industrial relations in shaping unemployment benefit regimes in the Visegrad countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. We adopted an actor-oriented approach based on desk research and 12 semi-structured interviews with the representatives of trade unions and employers in all the Visegrad countries. Our research showed that the capacities of the trade unions and employers' associations to shape the unemployment benefit regimes were rather limited. State control over social policy remained very strong and shaped the dynamics of industrial relations, without inclusive involvement of social partners. National governments sought to implement measures to protect employment (mainly wage subsidies), rather than to reform existing unemployment support regimes.

Trends in Permanent Work Disability Associated With Rheumatoid Arthritis in the United States, 1999-2015.

Advances in treatment over the past 20 years have resulted in improved control of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The objective of our study was to investigate whether there has been a decrease in permanent work disability associated with RA in the US. Medicare data from 1999 to 2015 were used to identify beneficiaries age 20-59 years with RA who became eligible for Medicare coverage under Social Security Disability Insurance. Diagnosis of RA was based on physician claims in the first year of enrollment. Annual rates of enrollment were sex- and age-standardized to the 2000 US population. The study included 97,787 beneficiaries with RA and Social Security Disability Insurance across all years. Medicare enrollment was 26.0 per million in 1999 and 26.0 per million in 2015. Rates increased following the Great Recession of 2008-2009 before returning to prerecession levels. There was no linear trend over time after adjusting for the annual national unemployment rate (relative risk 0.99 per year [95% confidence interval 0.99-1.00]; P = 0.69). Risks of work disability were much higher among workers over age 50 years. Based on Medicare enrollment by recipients of Social Security Disability Insurance, there was no decrease in permanent work disability among young and middle-age workers with RA in the US between 1999 and 2015.

Entrepreneurial intention and university: A necessary relationship in regions with high level of unemployment

Purpose: Although university entrepreneurship education as a predictor of entrepreneurial intention (EI) has been verified in the academic literature, few studies have analysed its influence in regions with low entrepreneurial activity. This research provides a new point of view by contrasting students' perceptions with what entrepreneurs consider most relevant. We propose an integrative and multi-perspective framework based on expectancy theory and the theory of planned behaviour, which includes the moderating effect of gender and family imprinting. Design/methodology/approach: A valid sample of 108 business students from the University of Huelva (Spain) served as the basis of the study, whose data were analysed using consistent partial least squares (PLSc) to validate the scales and subsequently test the hypotheses. In addition, 54 valid questionnaires from local entrepreneurs were used for the comparative analysis between entrepreneurs and students. Findings: Our findings showed that the elements associated with university support have a significant, albeit negative, impact on students' intentions to become entrepreneurs. In terms of moderating variables, no significant differences were found by gender, but significant differences were found in the group with entrepreneurial parents. In relation to the determinants of entrepreneurial success, it was found that the students' conceptions of entrepreneurship were closer to those of the entrepreneurs in Huelva than to those of the successful entrepreneurs. Originality/value: This paper contributes to the academic debate on whether universities in general, and business schools in particular, should promote entrepreneurship as the core of education. We believe that these results, despite the specific and limited scope of the study, may be of great interest for university staff in regions with high levels of structural unemployment and low rates of total early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA) to incorporate into their academic programmes.

Incidence of the Digital Economy and Frictional Unemployment: International Evidence

ABSTRACT This paper is the first to quantify the relationship between the incidence of the digital economy and long-term frictional unemployment across countries. This paper contributes a novel approach to the literature that had been missing by focusing on the impact of the digital economy on unemployment across a global sample of countries . The resulting evidence indicates that there is a robust, negative partial correlation between national unemployment rates and the incidence of the digital economy, proxied by the share of the adult population that reports using the internet to pay bills. Further, the absolute values of OLS estimates of the partial correlation suggest that it might be higher for developing than high-income economies. Controlling for informal employment appears to be key for removing a positive omitted-variable bias in the estimate of the partial correlation between unemployment and the digital economy, which is due to a negative bivariate correlation between unemployment and informality, and a negative bivariate correlation between informality and the incidence of digital payment. The results from IV estimations suggest that the partial correlation between unemployment and digital payments is negative, with the absolute value of the estimates being larger than the absolute value of the OLS estimates.

GAMBARAN PENINGKATAN ANGKA PENGANGGURAN NASIONAL DI TENGAH PANDEMI COVID-19

On January 30, 2020, WHO declared a global health emergency as a follow-up effort to the spread of covid-19. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the government imposed Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) or physical disatancing in most parts of Indonesia. The implementation of PSBB and physical disctancing provides changes to the social order in society, causing many business people who lose business or experience bankruptcy due to layoffs in both the formal and informal sectors. For this reason, this study was conducted to find out the picture of the increase in national unemployment during the pandemic. The type of research used in this study is associative quantitative research. The samples in this study are all the participants registered by BPS with total sampling techniques. The data source used is a secondary data source that is taken open access through the official BPS website. Based on the results of research that has been done, it is known that the percentage of national unemployment tends to be constant in 2019-2020 and increases in 2021. In 2021 Riau Island Province is the province with the highest number of unemployed for the past three years. Strategic steps to overcome unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic can be done by developing labor-intensive and entrepreneurial programs.

Analysis of Determinants of Regional Unemployment Rate Using Dynamic Spatial Panel Model

Purpose - This study analyzed the determinants of local unemployment rate in Korea using panel data from 16 metropolitan cities and provinces from 2000 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach - We use a dynamic spatial panel model that considers characteristics of the regional unemployment rate such as the common factors effect, spatial dependence, and serial correlations. Findings - The local unemployment rate is affected by the past and present values of the national unemployment rate. And it is significantly affected by the past local unemployment rate and the past neighboring unemployment rate because spatial dependence and serial correlations are clearly present. In addition, when the industrial structure diversity and labor productivity were high, the regional unemployment rate decreased, and when the education level was high, the regional unemployment rate increased. Research implications or Originality - In order to reduce regional unemployment rate, it is necessary to plan and establish regional customized industrial structure policies under the stance of diversification rather than specializing the regional industrial structure and accompany improvement of the quality of education with the number of years of education. In addition, the redistribution of labor from low labor productivity sectors to high labor productivity sectors through technology development will help to reduce the local unemployment rate.