The natural quality (NQ) of a coffee drink is defined as the one that is obtained in the year of bean production with the standard postharvest treatments of the region. The NQ varies with the climatic conditions during the crop cycle and with the drying period of beans in the sun. A well-formed bean can provide a good drink if well processed, but a bean grown during unfavourable environmental conditions will have poor quality regardless of the postharvest options. The goals of this study were to (1) increase our understanding of the relationship between meteorological elements (MEs) and NQ in coffee-producing regions, (2) identify the ranges of the MEs during the crop cycle that optimise quality, and (3) develop models to predict NQ based on the MEs. We used the two major regions of coffee production in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, the Cerrado Mineiro (CEMG), and the southern Minas Gerais (SOMG). We mapped the influences of ME on NQ successfully. Air temperature in November and December for SOMG and precipitation from November to January for CEMG were generally the most important MEs for NQ. Water deficiency, water storage, and rainfall became increasingly more important during winter (June to September) than during other seasons. The crop models were accurate, with errors < 7.9% for predicting NQ for all regions. These models used precipitation in June and December, the actual evapotranspiration in May, and the water deficit in April as the MEs for CEMG, and the rainfall in June and December, the water storage in April, and the actual evapotranspiration in May as the MEs for SOMG.