Natural Experiment In Japan Research Articles

Causal effects of sex preference on sex-blind and sex-selective child avoidance and substitution across birth years: Evidence from the Japanese year of the fire horse

This paper examines the effect of a short-term change in preference for male offspring on couples' childbearing and child-avoidance behaviors. We exploit a natural experiment in Japan in which girls born in a specific astrological year are regarded as less desirable. We relate this superstition to an economic model of child avoidance. We measure the relative importance of sex-selective and sex-blind child avoidance responses nationwide and across geographic areas and the degree of substitutability of children across birth years in Japan in 1846, 1906, and 1966, and we examine how these responses interacted with the economic and social development of Japan over this period.

Is There a Premium for Elite College Education: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Japan

In a dramatic move to confront the prolonged and often violent student protests, the Japanese government ordered that every student repeat the school year at the University of Tokyo in 1969. The directive had the inadvertent effect of denying those graduating from high school in that year an opportunity to seek admission to the nation's foremost institution of higher education. This paper uses the highly unusual event as a natural experiment to examine whether graduates from the elite Tokyo university receive a preferential treatment in hiring and promotion in the high civil service. The University of Tokyo traditionally predominates as the chief supplier of elite bureaucrats. As a result of the 1969 incident, however, the entering class in the high civil service four years later in 1973 contained a significantly lower proportion of graduates from the University of Tokyo than in usual years. Comparing the career experiences of the entering class of 1973 with those of adjacent entry cohorts, we do find some evidence that where one went to school may matter in the hiring stage, but no significant evidence for a similar favoritism in promotion in later stages.