Natural Disasters Research Articles

Climate change scenario simulations for urban flood resilience with system dynamics approach: a case study of smart city Shanghai in Yangtze River Delta region

With the rapid advancement of technology, cities are increasingly integrating smart designs to enhance their urban resilience, particularly against natural disasters such as floods. This study employs an integrated approach to simulate the social, economic, and environmental conditions under various climate change scenarios to strengthen urban flood resilience in smart cities. The CMIP5 BCC-CSM 1-1 model, using the RCP4.5 scenario, is utilized to project future climate changes. Shanghai, a highly developed smart city in the Yangtze River Delta, was selected as the case study. Five scenarios are examined through a system dynamics model spanning from 2015 to 2030, encompassing current continuation, economic priority, social priority, natural priority, and coordinated development scenarios. The model is built upon a conceptual framework known as PSR-SENCE (Pressure-State-Response model and Social-Economic-Natural Complex Ecosystem theory). The findings reveal a consistent improvement in resilience within the response dimension facilitated by modern technology. Notably, the coordinated development scenario emerges as the most effective in bolstering urban flood resilience, surpassing scenarios prioritizing economic, social, or natural development individually. Smart cities like Shanghai must prioritize technological innovation alongside enhancing organizational governance to address these challenges effectively.

The effect of natural disasters on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Purpose This study aims to assess the effects of natural disasters on food security in a sample of 40 sub-Saharan African countries. First, the authors assess the effects of natural disasters on the four dimensions of food security and second, the authors disaggregate natural disaster using the two dimensions that are most representative, namely, hydrological and biological disasters. Design/methodology/approach The regressions are based on the generalised method of moments on a data set covering the period 2005–2020. Natural disasters are measured by the total number of people affected and food security by its characteristics: access, availability, use and sustainability. Findings The results show that natural disasters increase the prevalence of undernourishment but reduce dependence on cereal imports. An increase in natural disasters by 1% increases the prevalence of undernourishment by the same proportion. As for import dependency, a 1% increase in natural disasters reduces dependency by 2.2%. The disaggregated effects show that hydrological disasters are more significant than biological disasters in impacting food security. Floods reduce the average energy supply adequacy but also dependence on cereal imports. Policy implications are discussed. Originality/value The study complements the extant literature by assessing the effects of natural disasters on food security in a region where food insecurity is one of the worst in the world.

The role of the play therapist in supporting children and families following a natural disaster: A scoping review

The role of the play therapist in supporting children and families following a natural disaster: A scoping review

Modelling drought in South Africa: meteorological insights and predictive parameters

South Africa has grappled with recurring drought scenarios for over two decades, leading to substantial economic losses. Droughts in the Western Cape between 2015 and 2018, especially in Cape Town was declared a national disaster, resulting in the strict water rationing and the “day zero” effect. This study presents a set of simulations for predicting drought over South Africa using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) as the drought indicator in line with the recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Furthermore, different meteorological variables and an aerosol parameter were used to develop the drought set in four distinct locations in South Africa for a 21-year period. That data used include relative humidity (rh), temperature (tp), soil wetness (sw), evapotranspiration (et), evaporation (ev) sea surface temperature (st), and aerosol optical depth (aa). The obtained R2 values for SPI3 ranged from 0.49 to 0.84 and from 0.22 to 0.84 for SPI6 at Spring Bok, Umtata 0.83 to 0.95 for SPI3, and 0.61 to 0.87 for SPI6; Cape Town displayed R2 values from 0.78 to 0.94 for SPI3 and 0.57 to 0.95 for SPI6, while Upington had 0.77–0.95 for SPI3, and 0.78–0.92 for SPI6. These findings underscore the significance of evapotranspiration (et) as a pivotal parameter in drought simulation. Additionally, the predictive accuracy of these parameter combinations varied distinctly across different locations, even for the same set of parameters. This implies that there is no single universal scheme for drought prediction. Hence, the results are important for simulating future drought scenarios at different parts of South Africa. Finally, this study shows that ANN is an effective tool that can be utilized for drought studies and simulations.

Hispanic Cancer Survivors Exposed to Multiple Natural Disasters: Pre–Post-Disaster Changes in Anxiety, Depression, PTSD, Perceived Stress, and Physical Symptom Burden

Background: Studies evaluating the effects of natural disasters on cancer outcomes are scarce, especially among USA ethnic minority groups, and none have focused on the effects of concurrent natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this secondary data analysis is to explore the impact of concurrent exposure to COVID-19 and earthquakes on psychological distress and symptom burden among Puerto Rican cancer survivors. Methods: This secondary data analysis (n = 101) was part of a longitudinal case–control cohort study (n = 402) aimed at describing unmet psychological needs among Puerto Rican cancer patients and non-cancer subjects previously exposed to Hurricane María in 2017. The research team pooled data from participants (cancer survivors and non-cancer group) from their baseline assessments and from follow-up assessments conducted during January–July 2020 (earthquake and the lockdown period). A descriptive, paired t-test, non-parametric mean rank test, and two-sided Pearson correlation analyses were performed. Results: Psychological distress and cancer symptom burden diminished over time. Resilience was significantly correlated with all the psychological and symptom burden variables during both pre- and post-earthquake and COVID-19 assessment periods. Conclusions: The results support the role of resilience, social support, and post-traumatic growth as potential protective factors preventing psychological distress and diminishing cancer symptom burden among cancer survivors exposed to natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Navigating Natural Disaster Disruption in the Hospitality Sector: Insights From the September 8, 2023 Earthquake in Morocco

Purpose: This case study delves into the specific hurdles encountered by hotel managers in Marrakech during and after the September 8, 2023 earthquake, alongside the strategies deployed to tackle these challenges. Moreover, it aims to unravel the intricacies faced by risk claims professionals in processing claims and evaluating risks post-earthquake, aiming to formulate suggestions for enhancing disaster risk management within the hospitality domain. Design/Methodology/Approach: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 27 hotel managers and five insurance professionals in Morocco, all intimately engaged in handling or alleviating the impacts of the earthquake on the hospitality sector. Thematic analysis was utilized to pinpoint key challenges, responses initiated by hotel managers, and insights provided by risk claims professionals. Findings: The study underscores that the earthquake caused significant operational disruptions and financial strains on hotels, resulting in cancellations, revenue loss, and infrastructure damage. Hotel managers responded with prompt evacuation, safety protocols, damage assessment, and customer communication strategies. Risk claims professionals underscored the significance of comprehensive insurance coverage, streamlined claims processes, and advanced risk modeling techniques to mitigate financial risks and bolster disaster resilience within the hospitality sector. Originality/Value: This study furnishes original insights into the challenges faced by hotel managers and risk claims professionals post-seismic event, illuminating the complexities of disaster risk management within the hospitality industry. The recommendations proposed contribute to the formulation of effective strategies and protocols for navigating similar unforeseen events in the future.

Optimizing Construction Spoil Reactivity for Cementitious Applications: Effects of Thermal Treatment and Alkaline Activation

Construction spoil (CS), a prevalent type of construction and demolition waste, is characterized by high production volumes and substantial stockpiles. It contaminates water, soil, and air, and it can also trigger natural disasters such as landslides and debris flows. With the advent of alkali activation technology, utilizing CS as a precursor for alkali-activated materials (AAMs) or supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) presents a novel approach for managing this waste. Currently, the low reactivity of CS remains a significant constraint to its high-value-added resource utilization in the field of construction materials. Researchers have attempted various methods to enhance its reactivity, including grinding, calcination, and the addition of fluxing agents. However, there is no consensus on the optimal calcination temperature and alkali concentration, which significantly limits the large-scale application of CS. This study investigates the effects of the calcination temperature and alkali concentration on the mechanical properties of CS–cement mortar specimens and the ion dissolution performance of CS in alkali solutions. Mortar strength tests and ICP ion dissolution tests are conducted to quantitatively assess the reactivity of CS. The results indicate that, compared to uncalcined CS, the ion dissolution performance of calcined CS is significantly enhanced. The dissolution amounts of active aluminum, silicon, and calcium are increased by up to 420.06%, 195.81%, and 256.00%, respectively. The optimal calcination temperature for CS is determined to be 750 °C, and the most suitable alkali concentration is found to be 6 M. Furthermore, since the Al O bond is weaker and more easily broken than the Si O bond, the dissolution amount and release rate of active aluminum components in calcined CS are substantially higher than those of active silicon components. This finding indicates significant limitations in using CS solely as a precursor, emphasizing that an adequate supply of silicon and calcium sources is essential when preparing CS-dominated AAMs.

Measuring Well-Being Index with Environmental in Mind: Evidence Forest Land Use in Indonesia

This project aims to create an objective composite wellbeing index from the point of view of the whole by using a complete welfare methodology and suggested weightings to take into account the differences between the components. Forestry total productivity (TFP) was also compared because of the importance of the environmental component in preparing the well-being index. This study examined 64 social, economic, environmental, and institutional indicators from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, and the National Disaster Management Agency. Three primary analysis elements were highlighted in this investigation. First, PCA created a weighted index of eleven important domains. Second, it creates a well-being index model for Indonesia's environmental sustainability. Third, comparing forestry's environmental dimension to its TFP. This study found that the Indonesian wellbeing model under construction weighs environmental quality, living conditions, including housing, and happiness. Indonesia's disaster-prone locations make environmental quality important, unlike other wellbeing indices. Forest degradation has decreased the composite wellbeing index, notwithstanding other socio-economic improvements. This study stands out from past research by being the first to compare the environmental dimension with forestry total factor productivity (TFP). Deforestation significantly affects the well-being index in Indonesia.

Impact of natural disasters on educational attainment in India: a panel data analysis

Natural disasters are known to adversely affect welfare, especially education. This can lead to a loss in human capital, reducing future growth and development. We use data from two of the latest rounds of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) and employ a panel difference in difference regression model with continuous treatment fixed effects at the individual level. This allows us to examine the impact of natural disasters on education outcomes between 2004-05 and 2011-12 at the individual level. Our estimates improve upon all earlier studies on this theme that have relied on cross-section or pseudo-panel data at the district level. We provide first estimates of the impact of natural disasters on educational attainment disaggregated by social (including caste, religion, and gender) and economic groups (consumption quintiles). Natural disasters significantly and negatively affected education for women and three Consumption Quintiles (including those below poverty), Other Backward Castes, Scheduled Castes, Muslims, and other Minorities. We also find that the number of household assets, the number of children in the household, school fees, school type, Confidence intensity, health insurance, and life insurance influence educational years. Our results have significant implications in the context of quality education (SDG 4), gender equality (SDG 5), reduced inequalities (SDG 10), and climate change (SDG 13). The study evaluates the impact of the rising incidence of climate extremes vis-a-vis natural disasters as external shocks on educational outcomes. Educational attainment is directly linked to earnings and is well-established in the literature. We thus believe the negative impact of natural disasters on educational attainment, especially for the marginalized, may have long-term disruptive effects beyond immediate losses and may last through generations.

Vaccine/Vaccination Hesitancy: Challenging Science and Society

Abstract How disasters (e.g., disease, war, and natural disasters) affect people is reflected in their behavior; in the face of a disaster, people are likely to act out of fear, anxiety, uncertainty, and panic in terms of self-preservation. Following more than 2 years of living amidst a global pandemic, issues of human behavior, and especially individual and societal resilience in response to disasters, are increasingly gaining focus. The theories of planned behavior and cognitive dissonance can help explain behavioral changes and underlying intrinsic conflicts. Especially in relation to global health, such phenomena as discrimination and exclusion are identified as having a negative impact on efforts to contain infectious diseases. In this context, the question arises of how to encourage members of a global society to behave cohesively in terms of quarantine, social distancing, and vaccination. This article demonstrates the existence of disbelief and misrepresentations in the context of vaccine fatigue and skepticism. While vaccinations have helped improve public health, skepticism, and resistance toward their efficacy are increasing. Looking specifically at the relatively new vaccines inoculating against the coronavirus, this article explores factors contributing to vaccine skepticism, especially with regard to Western Europe and the United States.

Study on the Water Use at the Tailwater of Nam Theun 2 Hydropower Station through the Canal of the 3rd Water Gate (Case study: Nongping and Boungbao villages) Nhommalath District, Khammounce Province

Water management is managed through the Nam Theun 2 hydroelectric project. The project has released water in two parts: 1) Water gates and channels release water into natural streams about 30 km long and can drain 1,200 m3/s; and 2) Releasing through the newly constructed regulating dam to the Xe Bang Fai River directly, with a length of about 27 km, can drain 330 m3/s. According to the length of the channel, there is a built water gate for 5 irrigations. Currently, only 3 water gates have been opened to supply water for production in 9 villages that depend on Nhommalath district, Khammouane province. In order to make the use of water through the channel to the maximum benefit, it can operate together between electricity generation and the actual use of water by the community. In this chapter, we have studied the amount of water flow according to the season through Regulating Dam during the past 11 years. Since 2012 to 2022, we have studied the participation of farmers in the management and use of water within the scope of agricultural land. Through comparing the amount of water flow during the past 11 years, from 2012 to 2022, The amount of water flow through the channel with the lowest flow in December 2022 is equal to 0.0 cubic meters per second caused by the stoppage of the company's electricity production to do various repairs, and the highest flow rate in November 2016 was 318.18 cubic meters per second. The reason is that the project has full production capacity to respond to the electricity buyers. Among them, the annual average flow volume with the lowest value in 2022 is equal to 153.06 cubic meters per second, and the annual average flow volume with the highest value in 2017 is equal to 239.11 cubic meters per second. At the time the company stopped production, it used a backup pump with a suction power equal to 0.083 m3/s, which was installed at 2 points to pump water into the irrigation channel for the people. The company is responsible for all costs, such as fuel for the pump, maintenance of the pump, and the water system from the pump to the channel. Assessment of farmers' participation in water management with topics such as survey participation and data collection, participation in the implementation of four seasonal plans, participation in monitoring and evaluation, and participation in the review of all outputs is at a very satisfactory level ( = 3-3.8), except for the topic of participation in determining water use regulations within the channel, and the flood problems are evaluated at a moderate level ( = 2.4). Because of management, the municipality has appointed a committee and has specific management rules. There has never been a natural disaster in the area in the past, such as a drought or flood.

Nivar cyclone-related urban flood vulnerability in Velachery municipality, Chennai

ABSTRACT The Velachery Municipality is highly vulnerable to natural disasters such as Storms, and floods due to its geo-environmental settings. It is evident that the Nivar cyclone has severely hit and caused flooding in the Velachery region during the fourth week of November 2020. Along with the increasing urbanization, it is also expected to experience severe impacts of climate change soon. Urbanization exerts additional environmental stress and amplifies the impact of natural disasters. The study area has been divided into 3 clusters based on the geographical location. The survey has been carried out in 180 households and data was statically analyzed. Indicators such as exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were grouped and aligned with available data. Data were aggregated using a composite index and Urban Flood Vulnerability was compared to Cluster wise. The results reveal an extreme variability in terms of flood magnitude and frequency in Velachery. The vulnerability spider diagram suggests that Cluster 2 is more vulnerable in terms of less capacity to cope, and Cluster 3 is more vulnerable in terms of Exposure, Health, Economic susceptibility, physical susceptibility, less capacity to anticipate, cope and recover. Overall Cluster 3 has higher flood vulnerability compared to other clusters. The identification of flood-vulnerable zones has been done in the study and recommended flood resilience measures for Velachery Municipality, Chennai.

The Effect of Weathering Conditions in Combination with Natural Phenomena/Disasters on Microplastics’ Transport from Aquatic Environments to Agricultural Soils

Concern over microplastics (MPs) in the environment is rising. Microplastics are generally known to exist in aquatic settings, but less is known about their occurrence in soil ecosystems. When plastic waste builds up in agricultural areas, it can have a negative impact on the environment and food sources, as well as have an indirect effect on all trophic levels of the food chain. This paper addresses the relationship between microplastics and the management of plastic waste, which contributes to their accumulation, and it describes the sources and the movement processes of microplastics in agricultural soils as a result of natural events and disasters. Evaluating the impact of weather on coastal microplastic contamination is critical, as extreme weather events have become more frequent in recent years. This study sheds light on how weather patterns affect the dispersion of plastic waste in terrestrial habitats, including the impacts of seasonality and extreme weather. According to the results of this review, typhoons, monsoons, rainfall, and floods contribute significantly more microplastics to the surface sediment through surface runoff and wind transport, particle redistribution caused by agitated waves, and fragmentation under intense abrasion forces. Severe weather conditions have the potential to disperse larger and more varied kinds of microplastics.

Специфика добровольческой деятельности в условиях современной России

The article presents the features of the formation of modern Russian volunteer activity, which in the last decade has become a large-scale systemic social phenomenon in the history of our country. The active life position of Russians is realized in the desire to be useful to society through real participation in specific projects of the vol-unteer movement. The approaches, reasons and potential for the development and functioning of volunteer movements are considered. It is noted that in the formation of volunteering as a social system there is, on the one hand, reliance on traditional experience, on the other hand – the desire to use the potential of modern technology and management functioning. The demand for the volunteer movement is beyond doubt, however, in the modern situation, its organization and functionality require the participation of government agencies in order to structure, finance and provide a legal basis for many activities carried out by volunteers. Various areas in which there is a greater need for volunteer support are being considered, ranging from helping the elderly to providing all kinds of support in situations of natural disasters, such as fires or floods. Modern Russian volun-teering is based on mutual assistance, spirituality and a sense of collectivism that has been inherent in our people since ancient times.

ДОСРОЧНОЕ ОСВОБОЖДЕНИЕ ОСУЖДЕННОГО ОТ ОТБЫВАНИЯ НАКАЗАНИЯ В ЭКСТРЕМАЛЬНЫХ УСЛОВИЯХ: НЕКОТОРЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЯ

Based on the analysis of the provisions of the Federal Constitutional Law «On the State of Emergency», the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, the Penal Code of the Russian Federation and other normative legal acts, a number of shortcomings in the regulation of parole, replacement of the unserved part of the punishment with a milder one and release from punishment due to the illness of the convicted person, accepted by the court in extreme conditions, that is, when natural disasters occur or a state of emergency or martial law is imposed. The article focuses on a number of issues: suspension of the convict’s right to apply for early release, leaving the possibility of such treatment with the administration of the institution or body executing the punishment; attribution of the convict’s participation in emergency rescue and other urgent work to the criteria for parole or replacement of the unserved part of the punishment with a milder one; imputation of post-penitentiary responsibilities related to the elimination of the consequences of extreme conditions; etc.

Tsunami propagation and flooding maps: An application for the Island of Lampedusa, Sicily Channel, Italy

AbstractThe Mediterranean coastlines are densely populated zones which host key socio‐economic and commercial activities. For this reason, coastal areas are vulnerable sites in case of natural disasters as tsunamis that can strike coasts causing widespread damage to the population and facilities. For these reasons, several studies were performed over the last decade to study the impact of tsunami waves on the coasts. This research assessed the inundation risk due to a tsunami wave which can hit the southeastern coast of Lampedusa Island. The coastal low‐lying geomorphological setting of the southeastern part of the island led to significant socio‐economic growth, but Lampedusa falls within the Mediterranean Sea, a high‐tsunamigenic area, therefore, the need to investigate tsunami propagation and coastal flooding of this sensitive site emerged. For this scope, a calculation chain model was implemented incorporating three steps: the DELFT‐3D software for earthquake effects modelling, MIKE 21 Flow Model FM for nearshore propagation and HEC‐RAS for onshore tsunami inundation modelling. The simulations illustrate the impact of three tsunami scenarios with different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 7.5, 6.5) generated by hypothetical earthquakes in the Hellenic Arc. In the Mw 8.5 magnitude scenario, significant flooding occurs in the harbour region, with maximum water depths reaching approximately 3.5 m. The maximum water velocity in this scenario reaches about 15 m/s in the eastern portion, adjacent to cliffs impacted by the tsunami wave. In contrast, the Mw 7.5 magnitude scenario demonstrates reduced flooded areas, with the cliffs containing the waves and preventing further flooding. Water depths and velocities in the Mw 7.5 scenario remain minimal. Changes in both propagation and flooding are not significant between scenarios Mw 7.5 and Mw 6.5. This methodology can be employed for more accurate tsunami wave simulations not only in the Mediterranean region but also in various case studies.

The Role of Nursing in Crises and Disasters

The current study aims what is the meaning of disasters, what is the relationship between national disasters and high rates of disease and mortality? what is the relationship between nursing care during emergencies and disasters? Is there a specialized department concerned with disasters and crises in Saudi Arabia? Are there courses and training plans dealing with disasters and crises in the workplaces? A questionnaire was prepared via Google Drive and distributed to the population aged 25-55 years, men and women in city of mecca. As for the questionnaire, it was distributed via the social networking program (WhatsApp) for the purpose of distancing for fear of the presence of the Corona virus. 380 questionnaires were distributed, 365 responses were obtained via email to the principal researcher. This study concluded that nursing provides many nursing services to the injured during emergencies, crises, and natural disasters, checking for fractures or dislocations in the body or limbs, and if the bones are visible, they must be covered with a clean, sterile bandage, and not move the injured person if the fracture is in the spine. Apply clean, sterile bandages to other wounds. The patient should also be closely monitored and given any possible nursing care with any type of belt and chemical, manual, or mechanical restraints according to the doctor’s orders and instructions, according to the opinions of 94.4% of participants.

A First Extension of the Robust Satellite Technique RST-FLOOD to Sentinel-2 Data for the Mapping of Flooded Areas: The Case of the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2023 Event

Extreme meteorological events hit our planet with increasing frequency, resulting in an ever-increasing number of natural disasters. Flash floods generated by intense and violent rains are among the most dangerous natural disasters that compromise crops and cause serious damage to infrastructure and human lives. In the case of such a kind of disastrous events, timely and accurate information about the location and extent of the affected areas can be crucial to better plan and implement recovery and containment interventions. Satellite systems may efficiently provide such information at different spatial/temporal resolutions. Several authors have developed satellite techniques to detect and map inundated areas using both Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and a new generation of high-resolution optical data but with some accuracy limits, mostly due to the use of fixed thresholds to discriminate between the inundated and unaffected areas. In this paper, the RST-FLOOD fully automatic technique, which does not suffer from the aforementioned limitation, has been exported for the first time to the mid–high-spatial resolution (20 m) optical data provided by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 Multi-Spectral Instrument (MSI). The technique was originally designed for and successfully applied to Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite data at a mid–low spatial resolution (from 1000 to 375 m). The processing chain was implemented in a completely automatic mode within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to study the recent strong flood event that occurred in May 2023 in Emilia Romagna (Italy). The outgoing results were compared with those obtained through the implementation of an existing independent optical-based technique and the products provided by the official Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS), which is responsible for releasing information during crisis events. The comparisons carried out show that RST-FLOOD is a simple implementation technique able to retrieve more sensitive and effective information than the other optical-based methodology analyzed here and with an accuracy better than the one offered by the CEMS products with a significantly reduced delivery time.

A novel statistical framework of drought projection by improving ensemble future climate model simulations under various climate change scenarios.

Unlike other natural disasters, drought is one of the most severe threats to all living beings globally. Due to global climate change, the frequency and duration of droughts have increased in many parts of the world. Therefore, accurate prediction and forecasting of droughts are essential for effective mitigation policies and sustainable research. In recent research, the use of ensemble global climate models (GCMs) for simulating precipitation data is common. The objective of this research is to enhance the multi-model ensemble (MME) for improving future drought characterizations. In this research, we propose the use of relative importance metric (RIM) to address collinearity effects and point-wise discrepancy weights (PWDW) in GCMs. Consequently, this paper introduces a new statistical framework for weighted ensembles called the discrepancy-enhanced beta weighting ensemble (DEBWE). DEBWE enhances the weighted ensemble data of precipitation simulated by multiple GCMs. In DEBWE, we addressed uncertainties in GCMs arising from collinearity and outliers. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed weighting framework, we compared its performance with the simple average multi-model ensemble (SAMME), Taylor skill score ensemble (TSSE), and mutual information ensemble (MIE). Based on the Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) metric, DEBWE outperforms all competitors across all evaluation criteria. These inferences are based on the analysis of historical simulated data from 22 GCMs in the CMIP6 project. The quantitative performance indicators strongly support the superiority of DEBWE. The median and mean KGE values for DEBWE are 0.2650 and 0.2429, compared to SAMME (0.1000, 0.0991), TSSE (0.2600, 0.2397), and MIE (0.1550, 0.1511). For drought assessment, we computed the adaptive standardized precipitation index (SPI) for three future scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The steady-state probabilities suggest that normal drought (ND) is the most frequent condition, with extreme events (dry or wet) being less probable.

Emergency safe havens

This paper describes how to find or create protective shelter in disaster zones. Federal Urban Search & Rescue (US&R) teams pre-stage directly in the path of on-coming hurricanes and floods, and these forward-positioned teams must seek out buildings and rooms that can survive these events. Safe havens are also needed for those civilians who can’t be evacuated, including the disabled and critically ill. Safe havens are also important in the aftermath of a disaster. Critical work continues for days or weeks at disaster zones, at places where buildings and infrastructure are severely damaged, and where hazards persist. Protected spaces are needed for ongoing humanitarian and medical care for survivors. Rescuers, law enforcement, and medical personnel also need safe interior spaces to eat and rehab. US&R teams and other first responders also seek out safe havens inside the “red zone”, the areas of intense damage and hazards where first responders must operate during rescue, fire-fighting, or HazMat mitigation. The authors describe how safe havens can be rapidly identified or created in disaster zones. This aspect of protective structures is of growing importance as the world population becomes more vulnerable to natural and man-made disasters.