NATO Membership Research Articles

Reassessing NATO’s deterrence and defence posture in the Baltics: rebalancing strategic priorities to counter Russian hybrid aggression

ABSTRACT Russia's full-scale (re)invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022 has energised longstanding security concerns of the Baltic states. To ensure their security, NATO implemented an enhanced Forward Presence to deter Russian military aggression. This article questions the utility of NATO's conventional deterrent posture rooted in Cold War thinking and argues that its deterrent function is limited, given Russia's different strategic outlook towards the Baltics in contrast to Ukraine. The following analysis explores Russia's strategic interests and why Moscow pursues different goals towards the Baltics in the geo-strategic realm, juxtaposing them with Russia's unflinching approach toward Ukraine. Further, the article argues that Russia relies more on active measures and unconventional tools of statecraft to exert influence on NATO member states such as sabotage, intimidation, cyber-operations, and malign influence. The implication is that Russia's hybrid approach requires a multifaceted strategy that should be updated from NATO's posture in the Baltics.

PROSPECTS FOR THE INTEGRATION OF UKRAINE'S NATIONAL SECURITY MECHANISMS WITH THE COLLECTIVE SECURITY SYSTEMS OF THE EU AND NATO

This article examines the prospects for integrating Ukraine's national security mechanisms with the collective security systems of the European Union and NATO. The study addresses the current challenges and opportunities arising from Ukraine's efforts to align its national security policy with the standards and requirements of international security organizations. The analysis underscores the significance of this integration in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions and the necessity for enhanced cooperation in safeguarding national and regional security. Utilizing a qualitative research methodology, the article employs a comprehensive literature review, analyzing existing frameworks, policies, and strategic documents relevant to Ukraine's security landscape. Comparative analysis is also applied to assess the effectiveness of Ukraine's security initiatives against those of EU and NATO member states, identifying best practices that can be adapted to the Ukrainian context. The findings reveal critical areas of cooperation, including military interoperability, intelligence sharing, and joint training exercises, which are essential for strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities. The article further explores the legal, institutional, and operational frameworks necessary for harmonizing Ukraine's security strategies with those of its partners, emphasizing the importance of aligning legislative measures and defense policies with EU and NATO standards. In conclusion, the article advocates for a strategic approach to integration that prioritizes resilience and adaptability within Ukraine's national security mechanisms. By enhancing collaboration with EU and NATO, Ukraine can bolster its security architecture, thereby contributing to regional stability and collective defense initiatives. The recommendations presented aim to guide policymakers in implementing effective strategies for fostering greater alignment with international security frameworks, ensuring a robust response to evolving threats in the region. Through these measures, Ukraine can not only advance its national security objectives but also play a pivotal role in the broader European security landscape.

Türkiye’s Relations with/within NATO: The Ontological Security Dilemmas of Türkiye’s Transatlantic Identity

Since 1952, Türkiye’s Transatlantic identity has been largely shaped by its NATO membership and interactions with the Allies. During the Cold War, Türkiye aligned its national interests and security concerns with NATO, making its membership a central element of its identity. However, starting in the 2000s, Türkiye shifted toward a more independent foreign policy, influenced by its new activism and regional ambitions, particularly in the Middle East. This shift has caused tensions with NATO, especially considering Türkiye’s military interventions in Syria, its purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, and its reactions to the latest enlargement of NATO. This paper examines Türkiye’s evolving Transatlantic identity through the lens of ontological security, according to which states act in order to provide continuity in their identities (Türkiye’s Transatlantic identity) and to prevent any instabilities to feel ontologically secure, which then might create security dilemmas between the protective security cocoons (Türkiye’s NATO membership) and the crises with other actors (Türkiye’s clashes with/within NATO). In other words, this paper aims to understand how Türkiye’s Transatlantic identity is still valued, desired, and reconstructed, despite the security dilemmas of Türkiye’s contentions with/within the NATO Alliance, from the ontological security perspective.

Germany’s approach to the functioning of NATO standing force groups in the mid-2010s and early 2020s

Western democracies have endowed NATO with the functions of “containment” of Russia and influential non-Western powers in general. This process is accompanied by a spasmodic growth of the Alliance’s military capabilities and changes in its internal structure. The principal responsibility for the implementation of the aforementioned measures falls upon the European member states, particularly those which have been members of the Alliance for a considerable length of time. Of these, Germany has demonstrated the most considerable commitment. Although some studies have examined the evolution of the Alliance’s military structures, there is a dearth of literature on Germany’s role in the Alliance within the field of Russian historiography. Nevertheless, an analysis of this topic is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of Berlin’s strategic intentions. The objective of this article is to examine the role of the FRG in relation to the functioning of permanent NATO troops. In order to achieve this, the author employs two distinct theoretical frameworks, namely those of alliance theory and military capability building, in combination with a comparative analysis approach. The author illustrates the distinctive features of the evolution of permanent NATO force groups and elucidates the challenges, including a shortage of military personnel, and opportunities, including limited activity by other NATO member states, that have influenced the utilisation of the Bundeswehr in the functioning of the groups. In light of the aforementioned conceptual and operational documents, which serve as the foundation for Germany’s foreign policy, the article posits that the Federal Republic of Germany is prepared to assume a leading role within the European NATO member state contingent with regard to the operationalisation of multilateral troop groupings.

THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY: MAIN DIRECTIONS, PROBLEMS AND SOME LESSONS OF WESTERN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE

Despite the heroic resistance of Ukrainians, in particular the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during the current Russian-Ukrainian war, without effective assistance, especially military, from the Western democratic world, Ukraine would hardly have withstood the Russian aggressor's more than two-year-long large-scale armed invasion and would have been able to preserve national statehood and the Ukrainian nation from genocide and destruction in the event of a protracted war of attrition. For such a war, Ukraine will need at least $150 billion a year, which can only be provided by its Western partners. And the World Bank estimates that over the next 10 years, about $500 billion will be needed to rebuild Ukraine's war-torn infrastructure, which is more than Ukraine's GDP, so without investment and financial assistance from our partners, we will not be able to find these resources in the country either. The purpose of the article is to systematise the huge amount of information available in accessible/open sources about the central, fateful event of modern international relations - Russia's war against Ukraine and the international community's attitude to it, in particular, to highlight the main directions, problems and some preliminary lessons of Western support for Ukraine in its resistance to Russian aggression, which can already be outlined in the third year of the large-scale war. Russia's unprovoked and brutal large-scale armed attack on Ukraine in February 2022 left no choice but to recognise this aggression as an attack on European and Euro-Atlantic democratic values and the fundamental principles on which the United Nations is built. This was a manifestation of the next stage of Russia's global hybrid war against the West. Unprecedented international support for Ukraine and powerful pressure on the aggressor country - Russia - is manifested in active political, financial, military, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine from EU and NATO member states and other countries. In total, more than 50 countries provide such assistance to Ukraine during the war. However, our Western partners do not yet have a common strategic plan for the Russian-Ukrainian war and its victorious conclusion, and in the third year of the war, they are increasingly talking about different options for peace talks with the aggressor, so Ukraine must develop its own grand strategy, which should be based on the fact that war and peace coexist and that Russia poses a long-term threat to it and the entire democratic world.

Military expenditure and income inequality in European NATO Member States

The purpose of this investigation was to empirically assess the association between military expenditure and income inequality in the 19 European member states of NATO between 2011 and 2022. To achieve this, the authors carried out multivariate statistical analysis using Kaplan-Meier life tables and survival estimation techniques. The results highlighted a trend in the countries analysed that income inequality tended to decrease when investment in the military increased during the period under consideration. The association manifested itself in the shortest time in the group of countries with the lowest military spending per capita, while emerging in the longer term in the countries with the highest. Furthermore, under high threat of war, the association tends to be shortest in relative terms in countries with the lowest military expenditure per capita. The results also revealed that the association between military spending and income inequality is more pronounced in the smallest countries by population and those with the lowest military expenditure per capita. The authors believe that this investigation will enrich scientific knowledge with new insights.

Long-Run Equilibrium Between Military Expenditure and GDP with Non-Linear Structural Breaks in NATO Member States

ABSTRACT This paper studies stationarity and cointegration of military expenditure and GDP for two subsamples of NATO member states. In particular, we employ newly developed unit root and cointegration tests which approximate an unknown number of smooth structural shifts in the low-frequency components of a Fourier expansion. The new unit root test indicates that military expenditure and GDP are non-stationary. Given the presence of several gradual shifts in the cointegration regression, our empirical results support the existence of stochastic comovement between military expenditure and GDP in the NATO member states. Additionally, we identified that income elasticities of the new member states are larger than those of the old member states, which implies that new member states appear to be more flexible, with their military expenditures more easily scaled up or down in accordance with economic performance.

Improvement of methodical training of physical training instructors in the direction of application of physical impact measures

Physical training in units of the security and defense sector plays an important role in the system of professional training of personnel. The direction of application of measures of physical influence, in addition to technical preparation, development of physical qualities, has a positive effect on the education of moral and volitional qualities. And all this certainly affects the readiness of the personnel to perform the assigned tasks. In the conditions of martial law, the system of professional training also changed in order to transform and adapt it to the realities of today. The system of security measures implemented in the state has made its corrections in the educational and training process of personnel training, in particular with regard to planning in training. It is also necessary to take into account the level of physical condition, development and training of the replenishment. During martial law, military personnel are trained according to an abbreviated program. At the same time, from the experience of training our servicemen in various NATO member countries, the training periods there are much longer - which indicates different approaches and concepts. On the one hand, the shorter the training period, the faster a serviceman will get into a combat unit, and on the other hand, the quality of training of personnel is required, many of whom have not served at all, have mature age, low physical development and training, and often have health problems. Undoubtedly, all these conditions require high professional competence and skill from instructors in various areas, including physical training. The instructor must raise his professional level in order to ensure higher efficiency of the educational and training process, increase the training of the personnel and their readiness to perform official and combat tasks as assigned.

Analysis of the organization and conduct of sports events in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the armed forces of the leading states – NATO member states with military personnel with limited functional capabilities

During the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine, servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, defending their country from the aggressor, received injuries of various degrees of severity, including amputation of limbs. After receiving injuries and wounds, servicemen go through significant psychological and physical disorders, which are difficult for them to deal with alone. Therefore, with the specified category of servicemen, it is necessary to carry out medical, psychological, and physical rehabilitation, as well as to develop programs for their adaptation to civilian life with the mandatory involvement of them in sports events. The Russian-Ukrainian war leads to an increase in the number of servicemen with limited functional capabilities. This indicates the search for optimal ways of their adaptation to the normal conditions of existence and functioning in the social environment and among the collective of their units and parts. Unfortunately, historical analysis shows that our servicemen with limited functional capabilities are in urgent need of social adaptation, especially with the start of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine since 2014, in connection with Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine. That is why various sports federations, public organizations and active public figures in Ukraine hold competitions involving servicemen with limited functional capabilities, namely; "National Invincible Games", "Strong of Ukraine", "Kyiv Unbreakable", "Hero Games", "Veteran Ten", "Invincible Cup" football, "Strong of Ukraine", "I am your hand" and others. According to the results of the performances, the best athletes with disabilities represent our country at international level competitions, such as the Invictus Games.

Joining NATO: a national end or a strategic means for Georgia?

Georgia’s pursuit of NATO membership faces significant challenges due to Russia’s strong opposition, placing the country at a critical geopolitical crossroads. This article examines whether NATO membership is a national end or a strategic means for enhancing Georgia’s security. It explores the historical context, strategic dilemmas, and complexities of Georgia’s situation, highlighting the impact of Russia’s opposition, particularly in light of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The article argues that NATO membership should be a means to enhance security rather than a precursor to armed conflict. It recommends that Georgia adopt a strategy of strategic patience and diplomacy, recognizing that Euro-Atlantic integration is a long-term endeavour; prioritize dialogue with both NATO and Russia; pursue regional cooperation; and explore alternative pathways to security as well. Ultimately, the article calls for a comprehensive approach to national security that aligns with Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations while addressing immediate security challenges

Exploring the Viability and Implications of a NATO-like Defense Cooperation Among Turkic States

This paper explores the viability of a NATO-like defense cooperation among the Turkic states. While several challenges such as divergent security perceptions, differing foreign policy orientations, and the institutions’ limited capacities must be overcome, there are also several catalysts that could provide impetus for new security cooperation arrangements. Türkiye’s military capabilities as the only member of NATO in the region is particularly important. Furthermore, an ongoing imbalance in Armenia’s favor, supports the establishment of a security cooperation framework among the Turkic states. The developments in Ukraine and Crimea point to the necessity of a collective defense arrangement amid an increasingly insecure environment for the Turkic states. While initially beneficial, the OSCE has gradually and mostly lost its credibility in the southern Caucasus. The unequal implementation of its own principles and tactics employed in conflict resolution have inevitably led to a loss of trust from the parties involved. Meanwhile, it has ceased to analyze arms control developments in the region, despite UN Security Council Resolutions recognizing their regional dimension. Furthermore, the inadequate response to Armenia’s non-compliance with the above resolution damaged the OSCE’s credibility. Today, the Turkic states are left with few operational security cooperation options. The UN is far too inefficient and does not even have the legal framework to resolve any post-Soviet disputes. The CIS, which exists in the Caucasus in both political and military forms, lacks regional capacity and legitimacy. The GUAM organization created in 1997 at the instigation of the US and the West to pacify the edges of “the Russian World,” has been rendered operationally void. Overall, this paper explores cooperation strategies, assesses key institutional and political challenges, and discusses implications and future developments exploring the viability of a NATO-like defense cooperation among the Turkic states.

The Asymmetries Generated by New Weapon Systems and Their Role in Achieving Success on the Battlefield. The Impact of HIMARS on the Conflict in Ukraine

The advent of new weapon systems, which integrate the latest technologies, is transforming the battlefield and redefining the character of contemporary modern warfare. The recent armed conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine, by their complexity, serve to illustrate the diversification of threats and the adaptation of military capabilities to counter them. Regardless of the type of conflict, success on the battlefield depends on the ability to gain an advantage over the enemy and exploit it. Such an advantage may be derived from the realization of asymmetries on the battlefield, which may be generated at all levels of military operations. The equipping of the Ukrainian forces with the HIMARS system in the summer of 2022 has given them a significant position of advantage, creating a number of tactical and operational asymmetries. In this context, the objective of this research is to identify the asymmetries generated by the HIMARS system and to determine how they contributed to the battlefield success. The key findings are of significant value due to the fact that most NATO member states, including Romania, are making efforts to strengthen their HIMARS capabilities.

Evaluating the Impact of Culture and Identity on Sino-Turkish Cooperation in the Belt and Road Framework

This study examines the material and intellectual factors that make inter-state cooperation possible from a constructivist perspective and aims to assess the impact of identity and culture on Turkey's planned partnership with China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI, which envisions the creation of a new China-centered economic-political structure and value system in the long run, seems to be a manifestation of China's desire to transform the existing order of international relations. The article examines from a constructionist perspective the question marks raised by Turkey's participation in this large-scale project, where Westernized intellectuals are the main constitutive element, and where Turkey has been included in the economic, political and military architecture of the West since the Second World War with the Truman Doctrine, Marshall Plan and NATO membership.

ANALYSIS OF THE PECULIARITIES AND SHORTCOMINGS OF THE MOVING AND TRAFFIC (TRANSPORTATION) OF GROUPS OF TROOPS (FORCES) IN THE OPERATIONS OF THE ARMIES OF NATO MEMBER COUNTRIES AND IN THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE

The task of increasing the efficiency of moving and traffic (transportation) of weapons and military equipment and material and technical means (material means) of military units and groups of troops (forces) in operations (combat operations) in the modern conditions of repelling wide scale armed aggression of the rf is becoming more and more urgent. This is due to the fact that the success of logistical support of operations (combat operations) is achieved mainly by early and high-quality preparation and distribution of vehicles, deployment of transport communications, clear organization of their technical service and cover. In order to solve these problems, an analysis of the peculiarities and shortcomings of the moving and traffic (transportation) of groups of troops (forces) in the operations of the armies of NATO member countries and in the Armed Forces of Ukraine was carried out based on the experience of local wars and armed conflicts, the Russian- Ukrainian war and the conduct of Joint Forces Operation (JFO) (Anti-terrorist operation (ATO) ) and identified the main shortcomings of this process. These shortcomings indicate that in previously performed studies, the issue of increasing the efficiency of moving and traffic (transportation) of weapons and military equipment and material and technical means (material means) of military units and groups of troops (forces) in operations (combat actions) was not sufficiently considered in theory. Therefore, in further research, it is necessary to analyze the existing scientific approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of moving and traffic (transportation) of troops (forces) in order to determine ways of their improvement.

A spatiotemporal analysis of NATO member states' defense spending: how much do allies actually free ride?

Abstract Concerns over free riding in NATO are widespread. An intuitive approach to analyzing free riding is treating it as a systematic pattern of spatial interdependence between the allies: how does a NATO member's defense spending react to changes in other allies' military expenditures? While recent work has found statistically significant free riding (negative spatial interdependence in the outcomes), it suffers from important limitations. First, this research does not adequately account for temporal dependence. Second, it does not quantify the effect of interest. Accounting directly for temporal dependence provides a meaningfully distinct perspective on the within-alliance dynamics, demonstrating that the spatiotemporal effect of free riding is, in fact, more substantial than its short-run effect, challenging inferences of static spatial models. We discuss the relevant practical and theoretical implications.

Russia-Ukraine War and Implications of Finland’s Membership of NATO

This study examines how the war between Russia and Ukraine has tilted Finland into the orbit of NATO. Therefore, the research approach is a qualitative systematic literature review, and it examines scholarly papers, foreign policy reports, and websites like Carnegie Europe and the Atlantic Council that deal with international relations. In addition, the study examines what this milestone poses for East-West relations within the international system going-forward. The study as a concluding remark indicated that the war between Russia and Ukraine has significant geo-political ramifications which are discussed in this study. Likewise, Ukraine's struggles on the battlefields are still raging, while neighbouring nations like Finland and Sweden have sought stronger ties with both of them making connections with NATO for increased security in response to the crisis. Similarly, the defection of Finland into the NATO alliance is of consequential impact on global dynamics. As a result, insightful information on the changing dynamics of the area and the difficulties of post-conflict international cooperation and security are gleaned from the comprehensive literature research.

Political and Legal Dimension of the Prospects for Ukraine's Invitation to NATO

The purpose of the research is to reveal the possibilities of inviting Ukraine to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the context of the escalation of Russian aggression. The research methodology is based on the principles of historicism, systematicity, scientificity, verification, authorial objectivity, moderate narrative constructivism, as well as the use of general scientific (analysis, synthesis, generalization) and special-historical (historical-genetic, historical-typological, historical-systemic ) methods. The scientific novelty is that for the first time in historiography, the current prospects of Ukraine's invitation to NATO have been considered. Conclusions. Accession to NATO is a constitutionally enshrined main priority of Ukraine, a fundamental condition for its survival. Today, the political elite of Ukraine and Western governments are unanimous on the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO. The Russian-Ukrainian war acts as an arena in which the political and military strategies of the global West are formed and break into the intentions of those world forces that promote anti-democratic values and, using Western technologies, intend to play a leading role in world civilization. The further development of the world system depends on Ukraine for a long period, and possibly for centuries to come. The need to invite Ukraine to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is due to the possibility of overcoming the global crisis of international security. In favor of the rapid Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine, the uniqueness of the military experience in the large-scale modern war against powerful Russia, the removal of the financial burden from the NATO members, the demonstration of the unity of the Alliance and the ability to respond to modern challenges testify. Ukraine demonstrates commitment to high spiritual values, such as freedom, independence, dignity and self-respect, on which the Alliance is built. Thanks to its armed forces and active civil society, it deserves NATO membership.

What makes paradigms last? A study of defense policy change in Germany and Italy (1989–2022)

ABSTRACT Policy ideas are often crafted in international fora, such as international organisations, multilateral institutions, and high-level summits. However, whether and how ideas will eventually inform policymakers at the domestic level remains an understudied subject. This paper contributes to this debate by tracing the domestic consolidation and eventual erosion of ‘Crisis Management’, a policy paradigm that emerged after the end of the Cold War and became dominant among NATO members in the 2010s. We investigate Germany and Italy as two case studies that followed two distinct trajectories. Policy elites suddenly adopted the paradigm in Italy and built a broad consensus on it. In Germany, crisis management has emerged lately and remains contested, as the territorial defense has maintained legitimacy among elites. Understanding the mechanisms underpinning such trajectories is the key to uncovering whether a consensus on a new version of territorial defense as a dominant paradigm will consolidate.

Rally around the flag? Explaining changes in Swedish public opinion toward NATO membership after Russia's invasion of Ukraine

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden changed its historic position of non-alignment and applied for membership in the NATO military alliance. This decision coincided with a shift in public opinion in favor of NATO membership, in what has been described as the largest and fastest shift in public opinion that has ever been measured in Swedish history. We examine two aspects of this “rally around the flag effect” to explain this change, the effect of the crisis event itself and the effect of political elite influence by analyzing within-individual changes of a Swedish university student population at three different time points. We find that after the Russian invasion but before the decision was made to join NATO, public opinion was still split with roughly 40% still opposed. However, after the decision was made to apply for membership to the alliance many people changed their position (32%), either making up their minds or switching position entirely. We show that these changes were likely in response to the decision to join, and that they were moderated by individuals’ previously established political preferences.

Rapacki Plan: Policy of Small States in Central and Eastern Europe in Second Half of 1950s

This article addresses the role of small states in addressing security issues in Central Europe. Through an examination of the development of the Rapacki Plan, the authors trace the distinctive features of the national interests of small states in both Western and Eastern Europe. These interests were oriented towards the advancement of European integration, the resolution of the German question, and the mitigation of political and economic dependence on the USSR. Special attention is given to the Federal Republic of Germany’s (FRG) membership in NATO and the roles played by the United States, the United Kingdom, and other alliance members in attempts to address European security issues at the level of small states. Although the Rapacki Plan was never fully realized, its objectives were partially achieved. First, the arming of the FRG with American nuclear weapons and the deployment of American intermediate-range missiles on its territory were prevented; second, economic cooperation expanded, initiating the erosion of the “Iron Curtain”; third, a “universal idea of nuclear-free zones” emerged; and fourth, concrete steps were taken to prevent nuclear war.