The article discusses the dependence of European countries on imports of Russian oil and gas, which caused instability in supply chains and could trigger the destruction of the global financial system, against the background of the war in Ukraine. The main positions of the impact of the sanctions regime on global trade flows were highlighted. As Ukraine fights for survival, Western governments are taking steps to punish Russia. They’re aware that by doing so, they could heighten the conflict’s impact on their own economies. In this way, the sphere of sanctions had revealed the weaknesses of the national oil regime of the European Union from Russia and gas. According to the European Central Bank, the shock of gas regulation by 10% could reduce eurozone GDP by 0.7%, which will increase the figure to 40% – the share of European gas coming from Russia – means an economic decline of 3%. Maximum sanctions can lead to unpredictable consequences that lead to a system of global financial destruction with side effects for US and European banks. The Federal Reserve System is moving to sustain growth. But if higher prices lead to inflationary expectations among consumers and businesses, it will lead to the worst-case scenario of monetary policy: the need to tighten even in a weak economy. The pandemic has left the global economy with two key points of vulnerability – high inflation and jittery financial markets. Aftershocks from the invasion could easily worsen both. There’s a threat to growth too. Households spending an ever-larger chunk of their incomes on fuel and heating will have less cash for other goods and services. Plunging markets would add another drag, hitting wealth and confidence, and making it harder for firms to tap funds for investment. It is analyzed how supply chain disruptions can complicate Russia's trade with European countries and how it affects the entire Eurozone region. Against the background of a sharp decline in Russian energy supplies to Europe and the United States, there is a tendency to increase oil and gas supplies to the East and Africa. The article highlights the forecast for Europe and US inflation and identifies its impact on foreign trade policy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine carries huge risks for a world economy that’s yet to fully recover from the pandemic shock. So it has been determined that the deterioration of the global financial system is accelerating in the context of the slow growth of world trade since the 2008 global financial crisis and the recovery of the world's economies from the shock of the COVID-19 epidemic. Therefore, in order to avoid and mitigate the negative effects on the world economy, the strategies of import substitution policy in the current realities of geo-economics’ instability were conducted and studied.
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