Referendum Research Articles

Fluoridation advocacy in referenda where media coverage is balanced yet biased

BackgroundDespite supporting scientific evidence, community water fluoridation (CWF) often fails in public referenda. To understand why, the authors quantitatively analyzed text from news media coverage of CWF referenda. MethodsThe authors analyzed text from 234 articles covering 11 CWF referenda conducted in 3 US cities from 1956 through 2013. The authors used cluster analysis to identify each article's core rhetoric and classified it according to sentiment and tone. The authors used multilevel count regression models to measure the use of positive and negative words regarding CWF. ResultsMedia coverage more closely resembled core rhetoric used by fluoridation opponents than the rhetoric used by fluoridation proponents. Despite the scientific evidence, the media reports were balanced in tone and sentiment for and against CWF. However, in articles emphasizing children, greater negative sentiment was associated with CWF rejection. ConclusionsMedia coverage depicted an artificial balance of evidence and tone in favor of and against CWF. The focus on children was associated with more negative tone in cities where voters rejected CWF. Practical ImplicationsWhen speaking to the media, advocates for CWF should emphasize benefits for children and use positive terms about dental health rather than negative terms about dental disease.

Referendum challenges to the EU’s policy legitimacy – and how the EU responds

ABSTRACTMultiple ways of legitimating policy in a multi-level system of states are now creating cross-level challenges to European Union (EU) policies. At the national level referendums are challenging EU policies by claiming that demands arising from a direct democratic ballot have the highest legitimacy. By contrast, the EU legitimates its policies by means of the legal rationality of the policymaking process established by international treaties and confirmed by the representative credentials of the European Parliament and member state governments endorsing its actions in the European Council. Referendums are no longer held to confirm a national government’s decision to become an EU member state. There has been a paradigm shift since 2005; most votes in countries are holding EU referendums have rejected policies approved by their elected representatives. The EU has successfully responded using strategies that involve legal coercion; instrumental calculations; secondary concessions; and avoidance of the risk of a referendum veto through differential integration. However, the legal legitimation of an EU policy without frustration by national referendums does not ensure policy effectiveness.

Realistic Group Conflict and Voting for the 2002 Aboriginal Treaty Negotiations Referendum in British Columbia

Although Indigenous peoples constitute one of the most socially, economically, and politically marginalized groups in the world, relatively few quantitative social scientists have studied the broader public’s views of this ethnicity globally or in Canada. To help isolate the roots of such attitudes, this research note investigates why ordinary British Columbians decided 1. to vote in; and 2. to vote “yes” on the controversial 2002 Aboriginal Treaty Negotiations Referendum. The essay examines the theoretical literature on attitudes toward ethnic minorities in the abstract, which suggests that support for the measure might have been rooted in various forms of realistic group conflict. To evaluate this theory, the research note next examines data from the April 2002 BC Reid Express Poll as well as official census and voting results. Cross-tabulations of the Reid Poll and Gary King-method ecological-inference analysis of the election statistics indicate that regional and ethnic differences but not individual economic circumstances seem to have motivated much of the conflict over this measure. Resume: Bien que les peuples autochtones constituent l’un des groupes les plus socialement, economiquement et politiquement marginalises au monde, relativement peu de scientifiques sociaux quantitatifs ont etudie au niveau mondial ou au Canada l’opinion publique sur cette ethnie. Cette note de recherche cherche les racines de ces attitudes en etudiant pourquoi les citoyens de la Colombie-Britannique : 1. ont decide de participer aux elections et 2. ont vote «oui» sur le controverse Referendum sur la negociation des traites autochtones de l’an 2002. L’essai examine des theories scientifiques generales sur les attitudes a l’egard des minorites ethniques. Cette revision theorique indique que le soutien pour la mesure pourrait etre le resultat des conflits reels entre les Premieres Nations et les Canadiens d’origine europeenne. Pour evaluer cette theorie, la note de recherche examine ensuite les donnees du sondage Reid Express BC d’Avril 2002 ainsi que du recensement et des chiffres officiels du vote. Les tableaux croises de l’analyse du sondage Reid et l’analyse ecologique des statistiques electorales selon la methode de Gary King indiquent que les differences regionales et ethniques, mais pas les circonstances economiques individuelles, semblent avoir motive une grande partie du conflit sur cette mesure.

Review of 'Yes to Europe! The 1975 Referendum and Seventies Britain'

Review of 'Yes to Europe! The 1975 Referendum and Seventies Britain'

National Referendum in the Republic of Poland in the light of the proposal of the Act of 14 March 2003

АнотаціяМетою статті є представлення походження, видів та практики проведення національного референдуму в Республіці Польща (Rzeczpospolita Polska — RP). Окрім аналізу поточного правового статусу щодо предметної сфери та способу адміністрування референдуму, реалізації його окремих етапів та правових наслідків голосування, а також практики референдуму відповідно до Конституції Республіки Польща 1997 року, представлено деякі пропозиції щодо змін, подані доктриною конституційного права та органами виборчої адміністрації, щодо окремих положень Закону про національний референдум від 14 березня 2003 року.Ключові слова: референдум, пряма демократія, форми прямої демократії, Основний Закон Республіки Польщі, вибори, види референдуму

Ustavna revizija - procedura u kontekstu ustavotvorne vlasti

Each Constitutional framer pays special attention to the procedure of constitutional amendment and reserves special section for it in the Constitution. The forms of constitutional revision have been developed throughout history as of a Constituent assembly, via a constituent referendum to legislative (representative) bodies, which decide on the change of the highest normative act in a special constitutional procedure. The procedure is very important as a look out of securing contextual legitimization for adopting the highest normative act of the national legal system and thus justifying the values of the constituent power. Therefore the implementation of a certain model of constitutional revision must be perceived through the lens of authority's legitimacy and the legitimacy of the procedure. The revision of the Serbian Constitution in the procedure of the mandatory national referendum is worthy of special attention, because the constitutional referendum has been arranged as a people's vote whose result is legally binding regardless of the number of voters - participants in the referendum. This implies certain consequences and opens the questions: who is the holder of the constituent power and how is the will of the constitutional authority being exercised? At the first glance in this formal question lies an equation for understanding the connection between the constituent power and the principle of national sovereignty, in other words the connection between the will of the constituent power and the will of the people.

Los referéndums en Venezuela durante la Revolución Bolivariana de Nicolás Maduro (2013-2017)

El objetivo de este artículo es describir los referéndums nacionales que se plantearon en Venezuela durante el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro, los cuales correspondieron, por separado, a una serie de iniciativas de reforma constitucional y de derogatoria del mandato presidencial. La perspectiva teórica empleada en el análisis es la doctrina de los jugadores con veto y su tesis sobre las lógicas competitivas o monopólicas de control de la agenda de los referéndums. Se maneja la hipótesis de que el nivel de control que tuvieron los respectivos promotores sobre las agendas de ejecución de las iniciativas planteadas, determinó la no celebración de sus correspondientes referéndums. Mediante un enfoque empírico inductivo, se pone en evidencia que el rechazo del oficialismo a la celebración de cualquier referéndum se ha debido, principalmente, al potencial efecto transformador que sobre el sistema político tendría en la actual coyuntura la utilización de este mecanismo de participación política.

The Politics of Queer Disidentification and the Limits of Neoliberalism in the Struggle for Gay and Lesbian Equality in Houston

The Politics of Queer Disidentification and the Limits of Neoliberalism in the Struggle for Gay and Lesbian Equality in Houston Wesley G. Phelps (bio) On a warm, humid October afternoon in 1985, former Houston mayor Louie Welch stood outside Kaphan's Restaurant, near the Astrodome. As crew members from the local ABC affiliate Channel 13 set up equipment, Welch chatted jovially with the men, anticipating the interview that would run on the station's 5:00 p.m. broadcast. Nineteen eighty-five was an election year in Houston, and Welch, who had served as Houston's mayor from 1964 to 1974, eagerly sought to get back into the game. His decision to return to politics after a profitable decade in the private sector centered on challenging the popular incumbent, Kathy Whitmire, who in 1981 had become the first woman elected to the mayor's office in Houston's history. Welch hoped to build on his earlier political career, which had focused on the sunny and bipartisan theme of promoting the city's growing economy and business-friendly environment. In this new chapter, however, he also hoped to combine that earlier economic focus with the current reality of a city divided by volatile social issues. During this particular television interview, Welch planned to discuss his four-point plan to combat the spread of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Houston. As the former mayor stood in front of the camera waiting for the broadcast to begin, he continued to engage in small talk with the camera operator, even joking that he could only remember two of the four points in the proposal. When another offcamera individual laughed and asked him to try to remember just one of his points, Welch quipped that the first point in his plan to curb the spread of AIDS would be "to shoot the queers." Little did he know that [End Page 311] the broadcast had just gone live to his remote location, and his gaffe was televised across the city of Houston.1 Welch's public blunder was certainly not the first antigay remark uttered during the campaign. Houstonians had been involved in an intense and emotional debate about sexuality and citizenship since the previous year, when the city council approved amending the city's nondiscrimination and affirmative action ordinances to add sexual orientation to the list of reasons a person could not be denied employment. During the ensuing months, there had been a campaign and public referendum to overturn the council's action. Antigay activists had likewise launched a political campaign, known as the Straight Slate, aimed at unseating Mayor Whitmire and all the city council members who had voted in favor of the amendments. Despite it being said as a joke, Welch's utterance reflected just how hate-filled the campaign had become by the fall of 1985. An analysis of this episode in Houston's recent history is critical to a fuller understanding of the role sexuality has played—and continues to play—in municipal politics. In 1970 New York City activists introduced the nation's first municipal bill to protect the employment rights of gays and lesbians, sparking a wave of activism supporting similar initiatives in cities and small towns across the country. Despite the significance of this political movement, as historian Kevin J. Mumford has recently argued, historians have not paid enough attention to the ways these local battles played out over the subsequent two decades. This lack of analysis seems particularly true for this period in the American South, where there remains a need for more work on gay and lesbian political activism generally, and particularly in the post-1970s period. An examination of Houston's own battle over a pair of nondiscrimination amendments in the mid-1980s reveals not only the contours of local politics but also the significant influence that gays and lesbians have had on the development of the city. As historian Timothy Stewart-Winter has argued in his groundbreaking study of Chicago, gays and lesbians have exerted significant influence on the reshaping of American cities in the second half of the twentieth [End Page 312] century.2 This has certainly been the case in...

Netherlands’ Media vs. Ukraine’s Communication Efforts: The Case of the Netherlands’ Referendum in 2016

Ukraine has redeclared its way to European integration which means the arrangement of not only the information campaign directed at the Ukrainians but the promotion campaign directed at foreign public. A serious communication challenge was caused by the advisory referendum in the Netherlands concerning the ratification of the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement. Ukraine had to counteract the well-organized media campaign held by the Dutch Eurosceptics. The Ukraine’s communication efforts are analyzed within the context of the Dutch referendum, 2016.

Politics 2.0: The Multifaceted Effect of Broadband Internet on Political Participation

We investigate the impact of the diffusion of high-speed Internet on different forms of political participation, using data from Italy. We exploit differences in the availability of ADSL broadband technology across municipalities, using the exogenous variation induced by the fact that the cost of providing ADSL-based Internet services in a given municipality depends on its relative position in the pre-existing voice telecommunications infrastructure. We first show that broadband Internet had a substantial negative effect on turnout in parliamentary elections between 1996 and 2008. However, we also find that it was positively associated with other forms of political participation, both online and offline: the emergence of local online grassroots protest movements, and turnout in national referenda (largely opposed by mainstream parties). We then show that the negative effect of Internet on turnout in parliamentary elections is essentially reversed after 2008, when the local grassroots movements coalesce into the Five-Star Movement (M5S) electoral list. Our findings are consistent with the view that: 1) the effect of Internet availability on political participation changes across different forms of engagement; 2) it also changes over time, as new political actors emerge who can take advantage of the new technology to tap into the existence of a disenchanted or demobilized contingent of voters; and 3) these new forms of mobilization eventually feed back into the mainstream electoral process, converting exit back into voice.

Miller: Legal and Political Fault Lines

The argument I will advance in this extended note on the United Kingdom Supreme Court’s decision in R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union is that the decision and its aftermath can be usefully understood by reference to three fault lines: between form and substance (Part I); between the old constitution and the new constitution (Part II); and between political accountability and legal accountability (Part III). The decision and the academic debate the litigation provoked revealed that British lawyers are deeply divided about how to resolve important questions about the relationship between Parliament, the executive and the courts. And the legislative response to Miller reveals that the fault lines can operate differently in a political context than they do in a legal context (Part IV). Drawing the fault lines I have described and using them as analytical tools achieves three objectives. First, using the fault lines as analytical tools enhances the legal community’s understanding of Miller by placing the resolution of the issue relating to the triggering of Article 50 in a broader context. The litigation raised important questions about the way British lawyers understand their constitution, in particular, how to accommodate constitutional innovations such as EU membership, referendums and devolution. Second, illustrating that important tensions are to be found in the decision of the majority of the Court. For instance, on the juridical effect of triggering Article 50, substance trumped form, but when it came to the impact of triggering Article 50 on the devolution arrangements, form trumped substance; the ‘constitutional’ nature of the 1972 Act weighed heavily in the balance, but other constitutional innovations, such as referendums and devolution, exerted next to no weight at all; and although the executive’s political accountability as a matter of constitutional convention was deemed to be insufficient justification for avoiding parliamentary authorisation for the triggering of Article 50, the enforcement of constitutional conventions relating to devolution was left entirely to political actors. The fault lines thus expose important tensions in the reasoning of the Miller majority. Third, demonstrating that these fault lines are political as well as legal. The relationship between form and substance, old and new and political and legal shaped Parliament’s response to Miller just as much as it shaped the judgments of the Court and the first-instance courts. In the political arena, interestingly, form triumphed over substance, the referendum result carried decisive weight, and confidence about the effectiveness of conventional methods of parliamentary oversight of the executive outweighed concerns about the need for legal protection of the interests of individuals or Parliament. This does not represent an additional criticism of the judges. I mean only to highlight how the legislative response to Miller demonstrates that, under Britain’s constitutional arrangements, legal and political actors do not respond in the same way to the same stimuli. This phenomenon may not be unique to Britain, but if so, Miller is a striking example that ought to be of interest to constitutional lawyers in other jurisdictions.

In search of an inclusive approach: Measuring non-market values for the effects of complex dam, hydroelectric and river system operations

Hydroelectric dams have social, cultural, and environmental impacts on society through both alterations of riverine effects (both downstream and in reservoirs) and the production and distribution of hydropower in a broader geographical area. Management of complex dam, hydroelectric, and river systems frequently requires tradeoffs between alternative operational profiles, each with its own set of heterogeneous external effects. Substantial evidence suggests that segments of the public hold non-market values, including non-use values, for both riverine environmental effects and a wide array of external effects of hydropower production and distribution. However, non-market non-use valuation exercises related to re-purposing dam operations continue to focus exclusively on downstream external effects, calling into question their usefulness in decision-making processes. Focusing on the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD), a critical source of hydropower and peaking capacity on the Colorado River, US, we measure non-market values, expected to be significantly composed of non-use values, using the contingent valuation (CV) method for two proposed management options inclusive of multiple social, cultural, and environmental effects of both downstream riverine effects and hydropower production and distribution in the broader basin. To provide a defensible basis for inclusion of relevant external effects in the valuation exercise, we undertook a multi-year study of the GCD policy domain. Using a nationally-representative, address-based CV internet survey, results from an advisory referendum voting format suggest that the average US household has a median net willingness to pay (WTP) to continue existing GCD operations of $21.51 per year [95% CI: $2.98, $40.04] after accounting for WTP to change operations under the US Department of Interior's preferred alternative. Net non-market value for continuing operations is $2.9 billion per year, aggregating across US households.

Reconciliation and Referendum: 1967 to present

Reconciliation and Referendum: 1967 to present

European Union and National Referendums: Need for Change after the Brexit Vote?

This article compares the referendums in France and the Netherlands on the Constitutional Treaty and the Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty with the Brexit vote. It is argued that the results have hinged on two key factors: voters perceive the EU as an agent for economic internationalisation and increased competition, and there is a low level of understanding of the EU. The article then turns to solutions. The basic bargain where the EU took responsibility for bolstering economic growth while the distribution of the gains was left for the Member States may need revisiting. Further, Europeans need to be educated to become Union citizens, like the Member States educate their nationals for national citizenship. However, such a heightened role for the EU for redistribution and education, traditionally bastions of the Member States, raises uncomfortable questions about the competences and the nature of the Union.

Harvesting Social Signals to Inform Peace Processes Implementation and Monitoring.

Peace processes are complex, protracted, and contentious involving significant bargaining and compromising among various societal and political stakeholders. In civil war terminations, it is pertinent to measure the pulse of the nation to ensure that the peace process is responsive to citizens' concerns. Social media yields tremendous power as a tool for dialogue, debate, organization, and mobilization, thereby adding more complexity to the peace process. Using Colombia's final peace agreement and national referendum as a case study, we investigate the influence of two important indicators: intergroup polarization and public sentiment toward the peace process. We present a detailed linguistic analysis to detect intergroup polarization and a predictive model that leverages Tweet structure, content, and user-based features to predict public sentiment toward the Colombian peace process. We demonstrate that had proaccord stakeholders leveraged public opinion from social media, the outcome of the Colombian referendum could have been different.

Party unity in federal disunity: determinants of decentralised policy-seeking in Switzerland

Federalism and decentralisation offer political parties the opportunity to tailor their policy-seeking behaviour to different regional electorates. These electorates often possess different political preferences. However, the regional branches of nationwide parties must be careful not to dilute or even betray the core values of their party, for equally often they remain dependent on central support. This article studies the ensuing tension between regional deviations from national unity by analysing all vote recommendations of the four major Swiss parties on all 251 national referendums held between 1987 and 2015. Vote recommendations constitute an important guidance for voters. Analytically, the article focuses on the conditions of cantonal deviations from federal recommendations as a proxy for decentralised policy-seeking. It finds that ideological (socialism), temporal, vote-specific (distance to next election) as well as vote- and canton-specific factors (regional turnout and contestation) all influence party unity, with some effects varying by policy area and vote type.

Elite Ambiguity towards Internationalization? The Case of Norway

Norway has traditionally had an ambiguous relation to international cooperation. Norway has on the one hand been an active member of United Nations and NATO and has signed several international treaties and agreements. On the other hand Norwegian voters have in national referenda twice turned down government proposals to join the European Union. At both occasions a majority of the elites were in favor of EU membership. Recent electoral studies have demonstrated that voters’ support for EU has been further reduced since the latest referendum. An elite survey conducted in 2015 showed that also among the elites backing of EU has been reduced, particularly among top leaders within private business. Findings reported in this article do not indicate that the dominant elites are particularly concerned with the lack of codetermination accompanying the non-member status. The decreasing endorsement of EU among Norwegian elites is probably a result of a pragmatic assessment that Norway manages quite well as a non-member and of a certainty that negative opinions in the population forbid any attempt to take up the EU-issue again.

Referendum as platform: the SNP and Scottish Green membership surge

Referendum as platform: the SNP and Scottish Green membership surge

Puzzling evidence on voter turnout

In this empirical analysis of voting patterns in five countries on days when one or more national referenda were held, voter turnout appears to decline in the number of concurrent referenda, in contrast to standard theories’ predictions and regardless of method used to hold constant the quality of the referenda. Multiple concurrent referenda imply ‘quantity discounts’ as one may vote on more ballots in one visit to the polling station. They should also draw more voters due to the wider range of interests attracted when more issues are up for vote. Yet, none of this seems to happen in the data. More recent developments, such as rule utilitarian and information-based theories of voting, fare similarly poorly in light of the evidence presented in this article; a social theory of voting does better.

Baudrillard Between Benjamin and McLuhan: ‘the Narcissistic Seduction’ of the Media Society

This paper aims to further investigate some aspects of Baudrillard’s analysis of the media society, influenced by Benjamin’s aesthetic teaching and McLuhan’s mediological legacy. His purpose is to probe the effects of the symbolic speedup fueled by the repeatability of messages and contents, constantly substituted by their immanent abstractions. The dominion of the signifier upon the signified, the replacement of the referendum with its referential highlights, the emphasis on the semiotic complexity of contemporary myths (as already remarked by Barthes), all this is destined to turn media into body extensions. Hence follows the ‘narcissistic seduction’ of television, as McLuhan outlines in reference to the tautological nature of mainstream media. In this sense, Baudrillard does not neglect the heuristic relevance of daily experience, conceived as an ‘open work’ by Eco. To the fore are the expressive shifts engendered by the cultural industry in the age of consumer fever. The result is Baudrillard’s syncretistic analysis of our communicative uncertainty. The latter stems from the meaningful and repeatable objects permeating the social act, increasingly influenced by the ‘narcissistic seduction’ of media.