National Product Research Articles

PERCEIVED RISKS MEDIATE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURISM DESTINATION IMAGE AND TOURIST BEHAVIOURAL INTENTION: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW (2018-2024)

Tourism industry has become the backbone of most countries’ economies. In most countries, it helped and contributed to the growth of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). There are many types of tourism businesses that focus on meeting the needs of different types of customers. Trends in the tourism business are always shifting. Nowadays, tourists are attracted to explore something adventurous in nature sites. However, an increase in the number of natural disasters reported in the media lead to uncertainty of the tourism destination. In fact, it has gained the prominence of all agencies, mainly the tourists, especially when it is related to their safety and security issues. Even though outdoor and adventure sports tend to involve risks, many of the tourists still support nature and extreme activities because it is a natural human life that will do something that makes them happy and feel thrilled of extremeness. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to review the relevant literature on how destination image and perceived risk as a mediating role can affect behavioural intention. To prepare the groundwork, for the subsequent literature review, the key terms are explained. This is followed by a comprehensive discussion about the destination image and its elements. This paper concludes that the elements of destination image should be viewed as a set and associated with perceived risk and behavioural intention. The findings provide an all-encompassing understanding of destination image, illustrate the academic evolution of the topic, and point to crucial directions for future research.

FOREST MANAGEMENT IN PORTUGAL

Portugal and occupied by more than 1/3 of forests. Portuguese legislation on forests has progressively changed over time, with measures being created that take the Portuguese panorama and problems into account. Portuguese forests present several advantages at a humanitarian, economic and social level. Their contribution to the national economy forest production and foreign trade, forest energy, recreational and tourism. In the Portuguese context, fires are the biggest problem that Portugal faces today. Rays, Arsonists, Burning for cleaning, Smokers and Country fires are examples of the causes. There is a certain impact on time and space indirectly and directly. Fuel reduction in strategic locations and changes in behaviors by the population could be the solution for what we have been looking for.

Інституціоналізація довіри до монетарної політики як інструмент залучення інвестицій для відновлення економіки України

One of the economic tasks of the Ukrainian government is to attract external foreign investments to rebuild the economy and expand its own national production, which entails other positive socio-economic effects. This study analyzes how monetary policy becomes an important tool for promoting the attraction of foreign investments through the institutionalization of trust in the National Bank of Ukraine (hereinafter – the NBU). The study identifies the main political and economic contradictions inherent in the instruments of monetary policy, due to which the importance of increasing trust in the NBU by ensuring its institutional independence is substantiated, in particular, via introducing high-quality corporate governance. It has been proven that institutionalized trust via the predictability of the use of monetary policy instruments, has a positive effect on Ukraine’s investment attractiveness, which increases the potential for this country’s economic recovery.

Climate change, production and trade in apples

AbstractIn this paper, we investigate the impacts of climate extremes on the production and trade of apples. Apple production being notoriously sensitive to climate shocks, we show that March and April temperatures and precipitations beyond estimated thresholds cause large yield reductions in Quebec and Ontario. In years when climate shocks are large and highly correlated across space, large variations in national production cause major variations in trade flows. Hence, we exploit the theoretical foundations of a sectoral structural gravity model to implement counterfactual trade experiments about harvest shocks in Canada and the United States. We report changes in tariffs, imports, exports, farmgate prices, and in consumer welfare. The shocks greatly impact trade between North American countries but have little impact on other countries except for Chile and New Zealand which see their exports grow.

Predicting High Technology Exports of Countries for Sustainable Economic Growth by Using Machine Learning Techniques: The Case of Turkey

In this study, the estimation of high-tech exports for Turkey’s foreign trade target in line with sustainable development was carried out. The research was carried out for Turkey since it has been focusing on sustainable and environmentally friendly production and an export-oriented growth model, with a transformation in its economic growth strategy as of 2021, and high-tech products are a determining factor in the export target. In this research, three different machine learning techniques, namely artificial neural networks, logistic regression, and support vector regression, were used to determine a successful prediction method close to the ideal scenario. In the models, high technology exports for the period of 2007–2023 with data obtained from the World Bank were taken as the dependent variable, while the gross national product, number of patents, and research and development expenditures were taken as independent variables. By calculating the R2, MAPE, and MSE metrics, the success of the model with the least error was evaluated, and it was seen that artificial neural networks (ANNs) were the most successful model, with values of 94.2%, 0.011, and 0.073, respectively. The ANN model was followed by support regression and logistic regression.

Use of the Sentinel System to Examine Medical Product Use and Outcomes During Pregnancy.

While many pregnant individuals use prescription medications, evidence supporting product safety during pregnancy is often inadequate. Existing electronic healthcare data sources provide large, diverse samples of health plan members to allow for the study of medical product utilization during pregnancy, as well as pregnancy, maternal, and infant outcomes. The Sentinel System is a national medical product surveillance system that includes administrative claims and electronic health record databases from large national and regional health insurers. In addition to these data sources, Sentinel develops and maintains a sizeable selection of analytic tools to facilitate epidemiologic analyses in a way that protects patient privacy and health system autonomy. In this article, we provide an overview of Sentinel System infrastructure, including the Mother-Infant Linkage Table, parameterizable analytic tools, and algorithms to estimate gestational age and identify pregnancy outcomes. We also describe past and future Sentinel work that contributes to our understanding of the way medical products are used and the safety of these products during pregnancy.

Do Changes in Demographic Factors Affect Public Health Expenditures? The Case of Turkiye

The main objective of this study is to analyze the effect of demographic factors on public health expenditures in the Turkish economy for the period between 1980 and 2021. Time series methods are employed in this analysis. The stationarity of the variables is tested with the conventional unit root test, while Zivot-Andrews unit root test is employed to identify potential structural breaks in the data. The existence of long-run relationships between non-stationary variables is investigated using the ARDL bounds test method. According to the analysis results, a persistent and statistically significant association exists between public health expenditures and GDP, contingent upon variables such as the old dependent population ratio, urbanization, and population. While increases in national product decrease public health expenditures, increases in demographic variables cause an overall rise in total public health expenditures. Increasing life expectancy, changing demographic structure, urbanization, and advances in medical technology have significantly increased health expenditures. Policymakers must establish strategies to boost the representation of the private sector in the health market if public health spending is to be sustainable and efficient.

Конкурентоспроможність туристичних дестинацій в умовах сучасних викликів

Modern tourist destinations in the world are a driver of the socio-economic development of territories, exerting a positive influence on the growth rate of the gross regional product, increasing profits, and the development of adjacent branches of the national economy, closely related to tourism. The need for accelerated development of the tourism industry makes it necessary to solve the problem of increasing the competitiveness of the national tourist product in both domestic and foreign markets. Such a task is especially relevant now, as most tourist destinations face fierce competition. The significance of this publication lies in its exploration of the competitiveness of tourist destinations, the identification of factors that shape their competitive advantages, and the proposal of strategies to enhance their development. This research is not just informative, but it is also crucial for understanding the dynamics of the tourism industry and for guiding future strategies in this field. The article examines the essence and nature of the popularity of tourism. Tourism development was determined to affect enterprises’ successful operations in the tourism industry and related industries. The Tourism Industry Development Index was studied, and specific global trends such as digitalization, sustainability, and changing consumer preferences affecting the tourism industry were determined. The essence of the tourist destination is substantiated, and it is stated that competitiveness is necessary for its stable and prosperous development. According to the evaluations of various scientific studies, the factors that form competitive advantages and the directions of their creation have been determined. It is justified that the destination’s competitiveness implies safety, efficiency, quality, high productivity, adaptability, success, modern management, excellent products, and low costs. The competitiveness of tourist destinations can be significantly enhanced through the efficient and rational use of environmental, social, and cultural resources. This research not only provides valuable insights into the competitive strategies but also equips the reader with actionable knowledge that can be adopted to elevate the status of a territory in the hospitality sector. Keywords: tourism, tourist destination, competitive advantages, competitiveness, socio-economic development.

The economic impact of tobacco smoking and secondhand smoke exposure in Jordan: estimating the direct and indirect costs

Aim To quantify the economic burden associated with tobacco smoking among smokers aged 30-69 years, and second-hand smokers (SHS) aged 15-69 years in Jordan. Materials and methods A prevalence-based analysis was conducted in alignment with the Economics of Tobacco Toolkit developed by the WHO. The time-horizon of the analysis was one year (2019). Direct and indirect costs were estimated using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases study. The analysis targeted the Jordanian population of smokers aged 30–69 years, and SHS aged 15-69 years. Adjustments were applied for age, gender, and smoking-related diseases. Direct costs were estimated using the smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) and national health expenditures. Indirect costs were divided into morbidity and mortality components. A discount rate of 3.0% and an annual productivity growth rate of 1.0% were assumed in modelling future economic losses. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the lower and upper estimates of data used in this study. Results The cost of tobacco smoking and SHS exposure was estimated at US$2,108 million (95% confidence interval [CI] = US$2,003 million-US$2,245 million). This represents 4.7% (95%CI = 4.5%–5.0%) of national gross domestic product (GDP). Direct costs accounted for 3.1% of national GDP. Tobacco smoking accounted for 85.0% of total cost and SHS exposure accounted for 15.0% of total cost. Direct costs accounted for 67.0% of total cost, while indirect morbidity and mortality costs accounted for 9.0% and 24.0% of total cost, respectively. Non-communicable diseases accounted for 96.0% of total direct costs compared to communicable diseases (4.0% of total direct costs). Conclusions Smoking cessation interventions such as raising taxes on cigarettes, protecting people from tobacco smoke, warning labels, plain packaging, and bans on advertising, are crucial for controlling national expenditures for treating smoking-related diseases and for averting future economic losses.

Potential Improvements in Crop Production in Egypt and Implications for Future Water and Land Demand

Similar to numerous water- and data-scarce regions, Egypt confronts a critical challenge in sustaining food production for its rapidly growing population. Consequently, the country’s water and land resources are under considerable stress and require careful management. About half of Egypt’s both annually harvested areas and renewable freshwater are allocated for cultivating rice, maize, wheat, and berseem clover. However, the extent to which crop production might be improved and how this would impact future water and land requirements remains poorly understood. We analyzed potential improvements in the production of these crops and quantified their future water and land requirements under different scenarios. Potential improvements were detected through percentile analysis in three remote sensing-derived performance indicators for each crop in the Nile Delta’s Zankalon region: (i) crop yield, (ii) crop water productivity, and (iii) transpiration fraction (transpiration to actual evapotranspiration, T/AET). We applied detected improvementsto construct plausible scenarios for Egypt’s water and land requirements to sustain domestic crop production until 2050. Our findings indicate limited potential to improve T/AET (< 4%). However, improvements of up to 27% for crop yields and up to 14% for water productivity are possible. To meet the production targets by 2050, national production must increase by 128, 78, 69, and 71% above the 2016–2020’s average for rice, maize, wheat, and berseem, respectively. Depending on the improvement levels in the developed scenarios, a total harvested land area between 5.3 and 6.4 million ha will be required by 2050, with 18% allocated to rice, 28% to maize, 36% to wheat, and 18% to berseem. Associated freshwater requirements will amount to 59–68 billion cubic meters, divided into 23% for rice, 34% for maize, 28% for wheat, and 15% for berseem. Interventions increasing yields and water productivity will benefit more the summer (rice and maize) than the winter crops (wheat and berseem). We discuss likely interventions for meeting these requirements and for sustaining the supply of these crops in Egypt.

TECHNOLOGICAL GAP AMONG THE FARMERS REGARDING RECOMMENDED SORGHUM PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY

In India and other Asian and African countries, millets commonly include sorghum, pearl millet, and a range of small millets (Vetriventhan et al., 2020). India is the sixth largest producer of sorghum globally (www.smartfood.org). Sorghum is mainly used for food, fodder, alcoholic beverages and production of bio fuels. Sorghum is also known as "Global Grain" due to its multipurpose uses being a 4F (food, feed, fodder and fuel) crop. Despite of its multiple uses, the area under sorghum in India has declined from 18.61 m. ha in 1969-70 to 4.96 m. ha in 2017-18. There is wide gap between national productivity and yield potential of the improved sorghum technologies developed from the research institutes. Productivity of the crop can be enhanced by adopting the improved practices. The extent of technological gap in different production components of the technology contributes differently to the yield gap. Keeping in view the afore mentioned facts, the study on Technological Gap among the farmers regarding recommended sorghum production technology was undertaken the middle of Gujarat. A sample of 300 sorghum growers were selected from all 14 villages of Vadodara district by using proportionate random sampling. Ex-post-facto research design was used. The results of the study show that higher (87.64 per cent) technological gap in use of plant protection measures, 75.30 per cent technological gap in use of seed treatment, 63.18 per cent technological gap in weed management and 61.93 per cent technological gap in use of FYM were found in adoption of recommended sorghum production technology as majority of the sorghum growers faced constraints of high cost of farm inputs ( pesticide, insecticide, FYM), non availability of seed, good quality of FYM &amp; fungicides at proper time, inadequate knowledge about sorghum production technology, non-availability of labor at proper time for weeding &amp; harvesting during adoption of recommended sorghum production technology. Hence, more emphasis should be given to supply inputs in time, sufficient in quantity at affordable price to farmers.

Статистическая оценка влияния антироссийских санкций на динамику развития российской промышленности

The relevance of the study is due to the unprecedented number of economic sanctions imposed on the Russian economy since 2014. In this paper we will assess the impact of economic sanctions on the development of key sectors of the Russian industry: machine-building complex, food industry and extraction of fuel and energy minerals. The dynamics of the development of the analyzed branches of the Russian industry in the 13-year time interval was multidirectional. High utilization of production capacities and support of national production by the weak national currency were counteracted by negative factors associated with the coronavirus pandemic and sectoral sanctions against the Russian economy. The study verifies the hypothesis of the negative impact of economic sanctions on the development of Russian industry using economic and mathematical modeling methods. The results of the study showed the existence of a relationship between the number of anti-Russian sanctions and the dynamics of development of two branches of the Russian industry: food and machine-building. For the mining industry the correlation coefficient was insignificant.

Research Budget Improves National Product Independence: A National Resilience Perspective

The current fundamental problem is the low national research budget, as well as the lack of domestic product innovation so that it will have an impact on the lack of innovation in creating the latest products and defense technology that is still unable to be produced domestically and requires imports of raw materials. This will be potentially bad for a country's national resilience with the country's dependence on foreign products, which will pose a vital risk to the survival and resilience of the nation in the face of crisis. National resilience as the ability of a country to protect its welfare, identity, and political integrity actual and potential threats. There are several elements in the form of ideological, political, social, economic and military. The purpose of this study is to analyze the potential of the research budget in increasing the independence of national products and formulate recommendations in optimizing government policy. This research uses a qualitative descriptive method with a literature study approach, collecting secondary data sourced from official reports, journal articles, and government publications related to the topic of this research. Analysis is conducted on the current condition of imported product dependence and domestic product innovation capacity, when looking at opportunities and challenges in increasing national product independence. The results of this study show the potential of the research budget. If the research budget is increased in order to make the latest innovations and produce domestic strategic products, in order to increase the independence of national products, there is great potential for innovation and encourages the acceleration of the latest strategic innovations in domestic products. So that it can be expected to be a reference for the government in increasing the independence of national products so as to reduce dependence on imported products.

Integrated bioinformatics and multiomics reveal Liupao tea extract alleviating NAFLD via regulating hepatic lipid metabolism and gut microbiota

BackgroundNon-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) poses a significant global public health concern. Liupao tea (LPT) is a Chinese national geographical indication product renowned for its lipid-lowering properties. However, the precise mechanisms and active constituents contributing to the efficacy of LPT against NAFLD remain unclear. PurposeThis study aims to comprehensively explore the therapeutic potential of Liupao tea extract (LPTE) in alleviating NAFLD through an integrated strategy. MethodsInitially, network pharmacology analysis was conducted based on LPTE chemical ingredient analysis, identifying core targets and key components. Potential active ingredients were validated through chemical standards based on LC-MS/MS. To confirm the pharmacological efficacy of LPTE in NAFLD, NAFLD mice models were employed. Alterations in hepatic lipid metabolism were comprehensively elucidated through integration of metabolomics, lipidomics, network pharmacology analysis, and real-time PCR analysis. To further explore the binding interactions between key components and core targets, molecular docking and microscale thermophoresis (MST) analysis were employed. Furthermore, to investigate LPTE administration effectiveness on gut microbiota in NAFLD mice, a comprehensive approach was employed. This included Metorigin analysis, 16S rRNA sequencing, molecular docking, and fecal microbiome transplantation (FMT). ResultsStudy identified naringenin, quercetin, luteolin, and kaempferol as the potential active ingredients of LPTE. These compounds exhibited therapeutic potential for NAFLD by targeting key proteins such as PTGS2, CYP3A4, and ACHE, which are involved in the metabolic pathways of hepatic linoleic acid (LA) and glycerophospholipid (GP) metabolism. The therapeutic effectiveness of LPTE was observed to be comparable to that of simvastatin. Furthermore, LPTE exhibited notable efficacy in alleviating NAFLD by influencing alterations in gut microbiota composition (Proteobacteria phylum, Lactobacillus and Dubosiella genus) that perhaps impact LA and GP metabolic pathways. ConclusionLPTE could be effective in preventing high-fat diet (HFD)-induced NAFLD by modulating hepatic lipid metabolism and gut microbiota. This study firstly integrated bioinformatics and multi-omics technologies to identify the potential active components and key microbiota associated with LPTE's effects, while also primally elucidating the action mechanisms of LPTE in alleviating NAFLD. The findings offer a conceptual basis for LPTE's potential transformation into an innovative pharmaceutical agent for NAFLD prevention.

How will manufacturing capacity additions in China and North America affect the carbon footprint of silicon photovoltaics?

Global annual PV installation is expected to increase from 150 GW in 2021 to 820 GW in 2030 to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Electricity production from PV generates almost zero carbon emissions, but the emissions from the manufacturing phase are nonnegligible. While most installed PV modules in the US are imported from China, manufacturers are expanding the manufacturing capacity in North America to reduce reliance on Chinese PV modules. Although it has been commonly perceived that the North American modules would have a lower environmental footprint than Chinese ones, the effect of capacity expansions and regional impact considering where each component is produced has yet to be fully understood. This study aims to compare the carbon footprint and cumulative energy demand of PERC modules manufactured in China and North America based on the expected 2024 manufacturing capacity additions. We develop PV manufacturing scenarios to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) for the first time considering the regional manufacturing capacity, partnerships between suppliers and manufacturers, and regional electricity grids, while previous PV LCA studies evaluated the national average production. The carbon footprint of China's PERC modules for monofacial and bifacial designs, when using the national average grid, is 517 and 412 kg CO2eq/kWp, respectively. In comparison, the GWP of modules produced in North America is 22.0–22.2 % lower than in China, a difference attributed to the lower carbon footprint of electricity grids. When considering where each component is made, the GWP increases by 1.5 % in China compared to the national average. This difference arises because most of China's solar manufacturing facilities are in regions with higher carbon intensity grids than the national average. Solar manufacturers can reduce the carbon footprint of their products by changing manufacturing locations or increasing the share of renewable sources for manufacturing. We find that both China- and North America-made PERC modules meet the Electronic Product Environmental Assessment Tool (EPEAT) low carbon solar criteria (630 kg CO2eq/kWp). However, to meet the ultra-low carbon solar criteria (400 kg CO2eq/kWp), a significant share, approximately 60 % for China and 15 % for North America, of the total electricity supply must be sourced from renewable energy in addition to the existing grid. This study identifies the significant impact of manufacturing locations on the overall carbon footprint of PV modules. It is important to consider production locations by stage and the regional electricity supply when developing the carbon assessment methodology of PV modules. Otherwise, manufacturers may take advantage of assessing carbon footprint using the country's average grid while producing products in dirty grid regions.

Green or grain? Impact of green space expansion on grain production in Chinese cities and its implications for national urban greening schemes

ContextExpansion of urban green space (UGS) enhances greenery and its benefits in cities. However, the impacts of such expansions on regional landscape sustainability and their spatiotemporal traits across the national scale remain unclear.ObjectivesThis study uncovers a trade-off between agricultural ecosystem services and urban human well-being—the loss of grain production due to UGS expansion consuming cropland—in China from 2000 to 2020. It proposes a safety boundary for UGS expansion to minimize the costs of grain production while addressing the escalating demand for UGS exposure.MethodsUGS expansion and cropland loss are quantified using land cover products, with statistical data contributing to the established relationship between grain loss and UGS coverage. UGS expansion scenarios for 2040 are simulated through bottom-up modeling.ResultsQuadrupled UGS area growth contributed approximately one-third to urban expansion during 2000–2020 in China. Despite improvements in per capita UGS area implying enhanced UGS exposure during rapid urbanization, UGS expansion resulted in a national grain production loss of 4.2 ± 1.4 million t from 2000 to 2020, accelerating post-2010. This loss is equivalent to the annual food intake of 9.3 million Chinese people. We propose a 30.87% UGS coverage target in China by 2040 to preserve UGS access while minimizing grain loss under future urbanization.ConclusionsAcknowledging the critical role of UGS expansion in the issue of cropland loss to urbanization is imperative. Our results offer insights into ensuring human well-being and ecosystem services through landscape and urban planning.

Fitting data to a multiple structural measurement errors model

This paper proposes two new estimation methods to fit a multiple structural measurement error model when all variables are subject to errors. The new estimation methods were extensions of the Wald estimation method, one is the weighted grouping method, and the other is the iterative method. A Monte Carlo experiment is performed to investigate the performance of the new estimators compared with the classical estimation methods; the Maximum Likelihood Estimator and Method of Moment, in terms of root mean square error and its bias. The simulation outcomes demonstrated that the suggested estimators are more effective than conventional estimators. In addition, real data analysis is discussed to examine the relationship between the national gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and human development index after applying the two proposed estimation methods.

The Art of Patchwork Kurak

The subject of the research is the study of the traditional art of ‘kurak’ by folk craftsmen and its dissemination among the people and in light industry. The purpose of the study is to study the art of craftswomen who create products using kurak. Creating favorable conditions for the production of traditional products using kurak, thus contributing to the production and dissemination of traditional kurak among the population. Ensuring conditions for the preservation in each epoch and the transfer of the art of kurak to future generation ns by using patchwork in clothing and costumes in accordance with fashion trends. The research was carried out in stages: Information was collected on national traditional patchwork products, clothing and dried apricots from printed and online sources. The following methods of empirical research are applied to the collected information and photographs: observation, experiment, comparison, as well as methods of analysis, systematization, generalization and classification of theoretical scientific research. The main stages of patchwork sewing technology have been identified. Equipment and materials have been selected for the manufacture of dried apricots and products with its use of high quality. The technological process of manufacturing the type of kurak ‘kattama’ has been developed.

A quantitative framework for characterizing the current and obtaining a future sustainable agricultural production mix meeting environmental, nutritional, and economic goals

Transitioning toward sustainable agriculture production is key in achieving sustainable development goals. However, quantifying the sustainability status of current agricultural mix and figuring out a future sustainable crop and livestock production mix that is nutritionally adequate, low in environmental impact and profitable to farmers, is a formidable challenge for any country. Here through a case-study on Indian agriculture, we demonstrate the application of a framework to first characterize the current agricultural mix by comparing 31 sustainability indicators with respective benchmarks across nutrition (social), environment and economic dimensions in each of the 36 Indian states. Next, we demonstrate the application of mathematical optimization algorithms to calculate the sustainable production mix in each state with the objective of maximizing the farmers’ profit under the constraint that the total national agricultural production meets the nutritional requirements of population without exceeding the current environmental footprint levels. Characterization results show that India does not produce enough of certain micronutrients (vitamin-E, and choline) and the carbon, nitrogen and freshwater footprints exceed their planetary boundaries while the farmers’ income remains below national targets. Optimization algorithm generated the sustainable production amounts of 138 crop and livestock items in each state and showed that fruits, vegetables, legumes, and oilseeds production needs to increase by 50%–100% while the cereals production amounts need to reduce to 50% of current levels in India. This will result in an increase in farmer’s income by 25% on average, fulfil the nutritional requirements of population and reduce the environmental footprint by 10%. Our approach can act as a template for other countries in collecting necessary data on sustainability indicators and determining optimum crop and livestock mix.

Peasant Displacement and Food Sustainability: The Colombian Case

Social migration affects the development of rural territories in multiple ways, as it poses a threat to food security and hinders the achievement of sustainable development objectives. The purpose of this research is to represent peasant migration and measure its impact on food security, since it creates conditions that alter people’s access to healthy food. Our research question is: What variables can be used to measure the impact of peasant migration on food security? A three-stage model is implemented, which includes (i) the acquisition of knowledge, (ii) the representation of knowledge, and (iii) decision-making. These stages are the basis of the methodology developed by the ARCOSES research group (Méndez A. System Dynamics and Social Problems. Bogotá: Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas, 2012). The model developed to represent peasant migration and its impact on food security has five components. The model representation was applied in 58 typical rural municipalities, observing a potential loss of 30,580,000 tons of food, which amounts to 5% of the national production. Likewise, it was observed that 70% of migrating farmers are part of the economically active population. Colombian governorships should strive towards a greater and more comprehensive development of rural municipalities in order to avoid massive displacement to urban regions, which affects the availability of rural labor, causes poor agricultural production levels and compromises food sustainability. To ensure peasants’ full access to food and their well-being, an assertive intervention should be carried out by the Colombian State.