National Presidential Elections Research Articles

French political symbolism and identity construction

The present study examines how the language of political symbolism operates within the framework of identity construction. It focusses on the themes of sovereignty during the 2022 French presidency of the European Union and the national presidential election campaign. On the basis of Conceptual Metaphor Theory, it suggests that, apart from purely linguistic features, extra-linguistic factors are also essential in order to convey a global view of symbolic rhetoric. The analysis is conducted according to an overall 6-tier model of figurative origins involving the parameters of personal background, political context, cultural history, reference, conceptual metaphor and linguistic metaphor. By applying the parameters of the model, it is proposed that the core of political argumentation in the corpus analysis is based on national symbols and the conceptual mapping they embody. The basic hypothesis of the model assumes that a politician attempts to portray the symbolisation of unity in accordance with his or her political background and personal biography. A political narrative is thereby created within the current political context using predominant symbols in cultural history. An over-riding factor is the role of referential points which may determine divergence in conceptual mapping. These features then lead to the construction of conceptual metaphors which can take on a particularly hyperbolic structure in the ensuing linguistic metaphors. The implications of the study highlight the important role of symbolism in political debate, its interaction with conceptual metaphor, the relevance of extra-linguistic factors portrayed by the 6-tier model, the link between cultural history and hyperbolic linguistic structures and political divergence in similar symbols.

Taiwan’s November 2022 Mid-term Election

In late 2022, Taiwan held its every four years mid-term election that was comprised of almost all of its local electoral contests; the ruling Democratic Progressive Party lost. President Tsai Ing-wen was blamed for the defeat for having focused excessively on tension with China while ignoring local problems. She was also seen to depend too much on the Biden administration’s China’s policy. After the election, observers predicted the election would give the opposition Nationalist Party (or Kuomintang, KMT) momentum to win the national presidential, vice-presidential and legislative election in January 2024. Subsequent events and polls, however, indicated a close contest.

Forum on Eric Foner’s “The Causes of the American Civil War: Recent Interpretations and New Directions”

Forum on Eric Foner’s “The Causes of the American Civil War: Recent Interpretations and New Directions” Aaron Astor (bio), Judith Giesberg (bio), Kellie Carter Jackson (bio), Martha S. Jones (bio), Brian Matthew Jordan (bio), James Oakes (bio), Jason Phillips (bio), Angela M. Riotto (bio), Anne Sarah Rubin (bio), and Manisha Sinha (bio) There is something remarkably fresh about Eric Foner’s 1974 essay, “The Causes of the American Civil War: Recent Interpretations and New Directions.” At the crossroads of the new political history, social and labor history, modernization theory, and recent studies (including his own) of the ideologies of proslavery and antislavery thought, Foner synthesized disparate threads of 1970s scholarship into a coherent set of questions that remain relevant today. Foner was particularly interested in competing visions of modernization, as an ideological project as much as an economic one. After several years of productive scholarship over the Civil War’s causes, the debate has unfortunately re-ossified into the old set of distinctions between the “fundamentalists” and “revisionists,” with the former emphasizing deep structural differences between antebellum Northern and Southern society that led “inevitably” toward secession and civil war and the latter highlighting the contingencies of post–second party system 1850s politics. Moreover, as Frank Towers observed in 2011, the “collapse” of the modernization theory of the Civil War’s causes has led to several new directions that have yet to cohere into a new interpretive framework.1 Historians of nineteenth-century politics have posed a variety of ways through the morass. Perhaps most productive are those that have expanded notions of the “political” to incorporate the actions of those denied access to [End Page 60] the ballot in 1860, including women, African Americans (free and enslaved), recent immigrants, Indigenous peoples and those otherwise excluded from the voting process (such as young people). What emerges from these newer studies of late antebellum politics is a more robust understanding of social tensions preceding the Civil War and, more importantly, the manifestation of them as struggles over power. But there remains a question that has long animated more traditional political historians and that still requires attention by historians of the Civil War’s causes: how did ordinary Americans define the limits of legitimate political action? After all, the Civil War most immediately followed the refusal of several states to accept the legitimacy of a national presidential election. In a post-2020 election age where election denial has emerged as a recurring crisis, historians need to explore the question of legitimacy at the point where American mass democracy produced a civil war. Indeed, just as with contemporary attempts to delegitimize the votes of more marginalized elements of twenty-first-century America, the prospect of previously excluded people influencing the political course of the Union in the 1850s fueled a great deal of cultural panic, especially but not exclusively in the South. It mattered then (and now) who participated in politics and, just as importantly, how such political action altered Americans’ understanding of the Union. I would propose a different framework to assess late antebellum political tensions and the coming of the Civil War through the lens of constitutional democracy and its inherent contradictions. By constitutional, I mean more than the 1787 Federal Constitution or even the various state constitutions. I mean the broader set of structures, habits, laws, and procedures that constitute the basic workings of American democratic politics. In other words, how did Americans constitute a democratic polity—not only who was “allowed” to participate in democratic political action, but how were those boundaries shaped, enforced, and, at key moments, rejected? Consider, for example, the ethno-racial identities of, say, Cincinnati’s recently arriving German immigrant artisans who shifted partisan allegiances in a world where debates over slavery in the West superseded earlier questions of immigration, temperance, labor or railroad development. Or think of enslaved women in Tennessee who circulated news and rumors in the wake of the Harpers Ferry raid and fueled wider fears of insurrectionary networks stretching from the Upper to Lower South. Both groups operated on or outside the limits of the legitimate formal democratic polity. They, like so many others, understood the political meaning of their actions...

Housing Performance and the Electorate

The electorate is concerned with personal financial and macroeconomic conditions in addition to policy issues and tends to hold the incumbent party accountable when voting. The performance of the United States’ largest asset class, residential real estate, should influence individual voter behavior. According to economic voting theory and the “homevoter” hypothesis, homeowners will be more supportive of policies that are perceived as beneficial to their property value. We investigate this relationship in the US residential real estate market by evaluating the effects of heterogenous county-level housing market performance on voter behavior in national presidential elections and find counties with superior house price performance in the four years preceding an election are more likely to “vote-switch” to the incumbent party. Counties with relatively inferior house price performance in the four years leading up to the election are more likely to switch their vote from the incumbent to the challenging party. The relationship is strongest in the years closest to an election and in counties that rank in the higher quartile of housing price performance. Election outcomes in “swing” counties are particularly vulnerable the local real estate economy. To our knowledge, this is the first study to link heterogeneous local residential real estate performance over a series of national election outcomes.

Not Policies. People

Not Policies. People

ON THE INNTERACTION OF EURO PARTIES WITH PARTIES FROM THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES. PART 3

The article analyzes the cooperation of one of the leading pan–European political organizations – the European Green Party (EPP) – with its partners in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine). Since 1994, the European Greens have established partnerships with the environmental parties of these countries and even accepted them into their ranks. The profiles of these organizations and their leaders, the results of participation in national parliamentary, presidential and local elections were studied. The interaction of these parties with other political forces of their countries on the formation of pre-election and ruling coalitions is considered. The main provisions of their program documents, which reflect the pro–European choice, as well as the resolutions of the EPZ Council concerning the situation in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program, are given. It is shown that the EPZ actively supported this program itself and its partners, regardless of their electoral results. It is noted that in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, local green parties initially achieved good results in elections, including in the national parliament, but in recent years they have fallen by the wayside of the party-political system of their countries due to a number of objective and subjective circumstances. First of all, this was due to the fact that the political turbulence characteristic of these states made environmental issues irrelevant to public consciousness. Nevertheless, the European greens are confident that as the situation stabilizes, the issues of environmental protection and sustainable development will return to the political agenda and the green parties will once again become in demand.

ON THE INTERACTION OF EURO PARTIES WITH PARTIES FROM THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES. PART 2

The article analyzes the results of cooperation of one of the leading pan-European political organizations – the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) with its partners in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine), with which ALDE has established cooperation and even accepted to become its members. The profiles of these organizations and their leaders were studied, including the results of their participation in national parliamentary, presidential and local elections, as well as interaction with other political forces of their countries to form electoral and ruling coalitions. Information is provided on when these parties became members of ALDE and what status they have today in this European Party. The main provisions of the program documents of these parties, which reflect their pro-European choice, are given. A number of resolutions adopted by the ALDE Council, which is the main governing body of this party, were considered, which concerned the situation in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program and the support of their partner parties. It is shown how ALDE’s strategy regarding cooperation with parties from the Eastern Partnership member countries has changed depending on the results of their participation in parliamentary and presidential elections. It is noted that ALDEэs initial bet on cooperation with the former heads of these states, or well-known politicians, and the parties headed by them did not justify itself in Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. It is assumed that ALDE has recently changed its policy and is now betting on new parties led by young pro-European-oriented politicians, but it is not yet clear whether such a change in the paradigm of cooperation will justify itself

ON THE INTERACTION OF EURO PARTIES WITH PARTIES FROM THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES. PART 1

The article analyzes the results of cooperation between two leading pan-European political organizations – the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Party of European Socialists (PES) with their counterparts in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine), except Azerbaijan. It is considered with which political forces and why the EPP and the PES have established interaction and even accepted them into their membership. The profiles of these political organizations were studied, including the results of their participation in the national parliamentary and presidential elections and interaction with other political forces of their countries on the formation of ruling coalitions. Information is provided on when these parties joined, respectively, the EPP and the PES, and what status they have today in these European structures. The main provisions of the resolutions of the governing bodies of the EPN and the PES concerning the situation in the countries participating in the Eastern Partnership program and the support of their partner parties in these countries are presented. It shows how the foreign policy course of the Eastern Partnership member countries changed after political organizations that closely cooperate with their European counterparts came to power. It is noted that in almost all of these countries there has recently been a steady desire to strengthen political and economic partnership with the European Union and Western countries in general. And only one country. Georgia is still trying to maintain a balance in relations with Western countries and Russia. Key words: European parties, party system, Eastern Partnership program, elections.

Kenya

Abstract On 4 March 2013, when Kenyans participated in national presidential and legislative elections, there was wide-spread concern that the underling grievances that erupted during the 2007 and 2008 post-election violence would remerge. However, the polls were relatively peaceful in comparison. This case study will interrogate how mass atrocities were prevented in 2013 in Kenya, despite the prevalence of risk factors which could spark tensions and fuel violence. This article interrogates the local sources of resilience and inhibitors of atrocity crimes and considers the preventive actions that were undertaken and by whom, with a view to understanding what they achieved. In addition, it will assess the outcomes that were achieved as a result of these preventive actions. Through an evaluation of the preventive actions the article will examine which actions proved to be most effective in affecting the risks dynamics of the country in the short, medium and long-term. Kenya’s history of violence and failure to uphold accountability and redress for victims, meant that in 2013, it was significantly prone to the scourge of atrocity crimes. This analysis will draw out a number of key lessons for enhancing the prevention of atrocity crimes in the future.

National Presidential Election Turnout: 1952 to 2020

In an era when elections scholars expected American national presidential election turnout to increase, its steep, prolonged post-1960 decline sparked deep concern and generated an avalanche of individual-level analyses searching for explanation. The post-1960 decline, however, no longer dominates turnout’s trajectory; it has been on the upswing since 1996. This complicates our understanding as we have yet to settle on turnout’s description, much less its explanation. Here we introduce the first political science-oriented, multivariate modeling of American national presidential election turnout. Our results offer a mix of important confirmatory and original findings. First, we discover that modeling turnout’s decline as a post-1968 secular disturbance reveals turnout’s expected steady increase across the modern era (1952–2020). Second, we show that turnout’s increase can be traced to increased polarization working its influence indirectly through the direct, positive turnout affects of voter external efficacy and negative presidential campaign advertising (1960–2012).

Ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants of voter participation in Ghana’s 2012 election: Implications for the 2020 national elections

In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that influenced citizens’ political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Average District Voter” which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The results of the analysis thus established two major points; that ethnic identification with regard to the two major ethnic groups in Ghana (i.e., the Asantes and the Ewes) has clearly influenced voter turnout, and second, that worsening socio-economic conditions played a role in voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections and these issues will ultimately determine the winner of the 2020 national elections.

Small versus Statewide Parties: How Subnational Contestation and Decentralisation Influence Presidential Elections in Europe and Latin America

Shugart and Carey were among the first scholars to recognise that there is a relationship between regional and local – or subnational – electoral forces and the presidential race. Yet because of a lack of subnational electoral data, this relationship has largely remained unexplored. We elaborate on Shugart and Carey’s theory to argue that the effects of decentralisation are conditional on a party’s presence in subnational elections for determining when and why parties enter the presidential race. Using an original dataset of subnational electoral results and presidential strategies in 17 countries in Europe and Latin America from 1990 to 2013, we find that parties with a small presence in subnational elections are more likely to compete for the presidency under more extensive decentralisation. Statewide parties, however, contest presidential elections regardless of level of decentralisation. These findings have important implications for understanding Shugart and Carey’s expectation that subnational contestation influences national party systems, presidential elections and democratic representation more generally.

Political Economy Analysis of Voter Participation and Choices in National Elections in Ghana’s Fourth Republican Era

We analysed the determinants of voter participation (turnout), impairment of voter participation (spoiled or rejected ballots), and the outcomes (share of the total valid votes cast garnered by the victorious political party) in national presidential elections during the Fourth Republican era in Ghana. This analysis was undertaken based on meso-level statistical models, using district-level data of voters compiled from constituency-level data maintained by the Electoral Commission of Ghana, and district-level socio-economic characteristics derived from the 2010 and 2000 National Population Censuses conducted by the Ghana Statistical Service. In essence, we used data from two presidential elections in Ghana in 2000 and 2012 which could be directly aligned to data from the 2000 and 2010 national population censuses for district-level analysis using the concept of an average “district” voter. Our analysis indicated that the voter turnout was determined by a number of factors, the most important one being the population aged 15 over; the turnout decreases with increasing population. The impairment of voter participation, based on the proportion of the total votes cast attributed to spoiled ballots, was linked to the literacy rate with the spoiled ballots proportion declining with increasing literacy rate. The share of the total valid votes cast, obtained by the victorious party in a district, was influenced to a large degree by the proportion of the total number of citizens in a district belonging to the two biggest social/ethnic groups in Ghana, Asantes and Ewes, who predominantly voted in a countervailing manner for the parties that their political class elites dominate, the New Patriotic Party and National Democratic Congress, respectively.

Political Economy Analysis of the Macroeconomic Impact of National Elections in Ghana During the Fourth Republican Era, 1992 to 2016

The study dealt with the analysis of macroeconomic impact of national presidential elections in Ghana during the Fourth Republican period from 1992 to 2016 based on effects of these elections on economic growth, government budget deficits, inflation and interest rates. Using annual data covering the period, 1992 to 2016, the analysis indicated that national elections did not lead to significant increase in annual economic growth as measured by the changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, the increase in government budget deficits during election years was established. Further, based on quarterly data covering 100 periods from 1992 to 2016, we showed that elections produced significantly higher levels of inflation and interest rates. Our study confirmed anecdotal evidence of worsening macroeconomic performance of the economy of Ghana as a result of national presidential elections which hurt ordinary Ghanaians especially those living on fixed incomes such as pensioners due to higher inflation, and also adversely affected small and medium scale businessmen as a result of increased borrowing costs from higher interest rates.

The Electoral College: A Constitutional Needle in a Political Hay Stack

In examination of the constitutional and political institution of the Electoral College the research shows that throughout American politics and history the Electoral College always had and has a role of great political and historical influence. Furthermore the Electoral College has also been a source of much political and constitutional debate. This is an intriguing constitutional needle in a political hay stack for the simple fact that something appears to be insignificant and inconsequential until its time for the national presidential election to roll around every four years. Thus the Electoral College takes front and center of the national political stage as the collective national eyes are all on the presidential race and the ever so magical number of 270. How the Electoral College factors into American politics has been the subject of much political discussion relevant to how the president is elected, how the American public’s voice is represented and how democratic of a political institution or representative system is the Electoral College. Through the sands of time of American history there has been camps of voices echoing concerns about the constitutional needle in a political hay stack of the Electoral College and its influential role in American politics.

Can post-religious France exist? Abd Al Malik, Frenchness and Islam

This article explores the work of the writer, rapper and slam poet Abd Al Malik, who shook up the music world with his message of religious tolerance in the midst of the suburb riots in France in 2005 and the Charlie Hebdo attack in 2015. It shows how he builds on his religious conversions and revelations to pose challenging questions about Islam, its interpretations, and its relationship with French society. In his essays and novel, he challenges the readiness of France to accept Muslim culture in its national and cultural identity. In his last novel, he tells the story of a converted Muslim frontrunner in a national presidential election and his reception by the French population. Malik campaigns in favour of a post-religious France through his music and through his literary works. He dismantles the idea that Islam is a religion of people of colour and insists on its multi-ethnicity. His ideal post-religious France would be based on acceptability and inclusivity, love and universalism. Malik insists that Islam is not radicalism. According to him the Islamist message that he denounces is based on a narrow and ‘ignorant’ interpretation of Islam, which negates both modernity and the Western world. Malik, as a Sufi Muslim, suggests that Islam actually enables religious practices that embrace deep French values and promote the aspiration to ‘vivre ensemble’.

Foreign policy as a socially divisive issue: the KORUS free-trade agreement

ABSTRACTWhile the Korea–United States (KORUS) free-trade agreement negotiations were concluded in 2007, and ratified in 2011, the agreement has remained deeply controversial. Labor unions, civil society groups, and opposition politicians in South Korea have criticized the agreement as being unfair, and also in the United States have voices spoken out against the agreement. The process of negotiation by South Korea was deeply flawed, and the conclusion of the agreement, that included a unilateral ratification by the ruling party in National Assembly, was forcefully opposed by many groups in South Korean society with violent demonstrations leading almost to the collapse of the Lee Myung-bak government. This article argues that it was not only the perception of potential economic damage to, in particular agricultural, domestic interest that was the main cause of the public resistance to the agreement, but that the unique nature of the relationship with the United States, and how this influenced the progress of negotiating and ratifying the agreement in South Korea, was a leading course of the divisiveness of the agreement and the massive resistance it faced. This is also why while the conservative Park Geun-hye government has expressed its willingness to re-negotiate other free-trade agreements, it has remained adamant in its refusal to even consider reopening the KORUS agreement. It is not only the apparent trade benefits that accrued to South Korea that is behind this refusal. With the ruling party having lost the April 2016 National Assembly elections and presidential elections scheduled for December 2017, the conservative elite, concerned about its electoral fate, has no interest in re-opening such a divisive issue as the KORUS free-trade agreement.

Electoral competition and democratic decline in Nicaragua: uncovering an electorally viable platform for the right

ABSTRACTBetween the 1980s and 2006 Nicaragua was a competitive democracy where parties of the left and right won national presidential elections and relinquished power when their terms ended. More recently the quality of Nicaragua’s democracy has deteriorated. This change is due partly to autocratic behaviour by the elected leftist president, Daniel Ortega. But democratic decline is also the result of factional divisions and vague, outmoded policy commitments on the right that have crippled its electoral competitiveness, enabling Ortega’s behaviour. Utilizing an experimental research design, this article identifies two modernized policy platforms that could significantly broaden rightist electoral support in presidential campaigns, aiding democratic resurgence in Nicaragua. At a point when opposition parties are struggling to retain strength and coherence in many other democracies, the study presents a research strategy that could help clarify the ways such parties might reinvigorate their electoral competitiveness.

Corruption, Election Automation Reforms and Patron-Client Networks: Impact on the May 2010 Philippine Senatorial Contests

The May 2010 elections heralded a watershed in electoral processes and practices. Results of local (congressional) and national (senatorial, vice-president and presidential) elections were obtained nearly overnight, dramatically altering the mode of Philippine elections: typified by arduous and onerous delays in announcing results stretching all the way to several months after elections. This inquiry answers one question: What is the impact of allegations of corruption, the unprecedented automation of elections and the prevalence of patron-client networks to reforms implemented in 2010? Using election data, this exploratory inquiry explores analytical models in understanding changes and continuities in election reforms and corruption in determining outcomes – individual votes garnered during the elections.

Generation Effects? An Empirical Analysis of the Korean National Assembly and Presidential Elections

Generation has played a role in Korean elections, especially since the democratization movement of 1987. In this article, we unify the concept of generation effects to produce two dimensions (the aging effect and the cohort effect), and examine whether these have been embodied in Korean elections. Analysis of survey data for two presidential elections and three National Assembly elections reveals that the importance of generation effects is somewhat exaggerated. For the 2002 and 2007 presidential elections we find that generation had a significant effect on the former but not on the latter. Neither aging effect nor cohort effect had a significant influence on voter choice in any of the National Assembly elections. Even in the 2002 presidential election, in which generation effects are statistically meaningful, their substantive importance is minor compared to that of ideology. We conclude that, with regard to Korean politics, debating the political implications of generation effects is premature.