National Population Commission Research Articles

Emerging cancer disease burden in a rural sub-Saharan African population: northeast Nigeria in focus.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is plagued by myriads of diseases, mostly infectious; but cancer disease burden is rising among non-communicable diseases. Nigeria has a high burden of cancer, however its remote underserved culturally-conserved populations have been understudied, a gap this study sought to fill. This was a cross-sectional multi-institutional descriptive study of histologically diagnosed cancers over a four-year period (January 2019-December 2022) archived in the Departments of Pathology and Cancer Registries of six tertiary hospitals in the northeast of Nigeria. Data obtained included age at diagnosis, gender, tumor site and available cancer care infrastructure. Population data of the study region and its demographics was obtained from the National Population Commission and used to calculate incident rates for the population studied. A total of 4,681 incident cancer cases from 2,770 females and 1,911 males were identified. The median age at diagnosis for females was 45 years (range 1-95yrs), and 56 years (range 1-99yrs) for males. Observed age-specific incidence rates (ASR) increased steadily for both genders reaching peaks in the age group 80 years and above with the highest ASR seen among males (321/100,000 persons) compared to females (215.5/100,000 persons). Breast, cervical, prostatic, colorectal and skin cancers were the five most common incident cancers. In females, breast, cervical, skin, ovarian and colorectal cancers were the top five malignancies; while prostate, haematolymphoid, skin, colorectal and urinary bladder cancers predominated in men. Remote SSA communities are witnessing rising cancer disease burden. Proactive control programs inclusive of advocacy, vaccination, screening, and improved diagnostics are needed.

Demographic determinants of poor childhood immunization coverage among women in Bayelsa state

The study examined at the extent demographic factors influence childhood immunization coverage in Bayelsa State. The design was cross-sectional. The total female population of Bayelsa State is estimated to be 1,116, 200.9. National Population Commission and National Bureau of Statistics (2016); National Bureau of Statistics (2018) According to the World Health Organizatio, women of reproductive age account for 22% of the total population of 501, 502 people. The study population consists solely of women in Bayelsa State who have child(ren) between the ages of 0 and 5 years. A multi-stage procedure was used to select 20 women with at least one child under the age of five from each selected community, yielding a sample size of 1100. The instrument's internal consistency was assessed using Cronbach's Alpha statistics, yielding a reliability of 0.77. At the 0.05 level of significance, simple regression statistics was used to analyze the hypotheses. The findings revealed that mothers’ age and education influence childhood immunization coverage, as the educated and older mothers have higher probability of getting their children immunized completely. Maternal education was recommended in the State, also that the National Orientation Agency should ensure mass media exposure and community education awareness and campaigns on immunization.

Politics of Godfatherism and Democratic Governance in Nigeria: The Rivers State Case

The study examined the politics of godfatherism and democratic governance in Nigeria with preference to Rivers State political crisis. The objectives of the study were to identify the environmental factors infuencing the politics of godfatherism in Rivers State; to examine the impact the politics of godfatherism has on democratic governance in Rivers State; and to find out strategies to abate politics of godfatherism in Rivers State. The study adopted the elite theory, applied a descriptive survey research design, used both primary and secondary sources of data and a structured questionnaire as the instrument for data collection was employed. The population of the study is 5,198,716 residents in Rivers State (National Population Commission of Nigeria, 2006). The sample population is 400 (derived via the application of Taro Yamani sample size determination formula). The data collected via questionnaire were analyzed using table and percentages, while the hypotheses were tested using the chi-square. The findings of the study revealed that there are environmental factors inciting politics of godfatherism in Rivers State; that politics of godfatherism has adversely impacted on democratic governance in Rivers State; and that there are strategic measures to abate politics of godfatherism in Rivers State. Based on the findings, the study recommended the prevention of undue influence from political godfathers, enforcement of campaign finance regulations, promotion of a level playing field for all candidates before and during elections in Nigeria among others.

Examination of Farmers’ Perception on Adaptation Measures Toward Modifying Climatic Challenges for Agricultural Sustainability in Northern Nigeria

This study examines farmers’ perceptions on adaptation measures toward modifying climatic challenges for agricultural sustainability in northern Nigeria. The data were mainly derived from several sources, including maps of Nigeria and the selected States, population figures from records of the National Population Commission and from internet and library sources, as well as from questionnaire survey of farmers’ opinions. Stepwise sampling technique was employed in the selection of respondents for the questionnaire survey. Frequency tabulations and ANOVA were used to collate and analyze the variations within and between states in the farmers’ measures of modifying environmental challenges in northern Nigeria. It was concluded that 86% of the farmers were positive about climatic adaptation measures in Northern Nigeria, to the extent that there is no variation within and between states (F-value = 0.016), across the region. It was recommended that efforts at improving local or indigenous practices of water harvesting and soil water conservation should be promoted.

Prevalence, trends, and determinants of contraception use among women in Nigeria: An analysis of Nigeria demographic and health surveys 2008 to 2018.

Within Africa, maternal mortality remains a concern that can be prevented and addressed. Among the various African countries, Nigeria has one of the highest mortality rates, particularly in a context where the population continues to rise. The relationship between contraceptive usage among married Nigerian women and low socioeconomic development contributes to another concerning public health issue- performing unskilled abortions. This cross-sectional study examines how seven (7) key social determinants of health impact the usage of contraceptive methods among Nigerian women ages 15-24. Data were analyzed and acquired from the Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and the National Population Commission (NPC) in 2008, 2013, and 2018. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses illustrate social determinants have a deep effect on access and usage of contraceptives in Nigeria. Results yielded that as factors such as age, education, and socioeconomic status increase, the use of contraceptives increases as well. While autonomy has little to no significance, religion and urbanity present challenges to Nigerian women who are interested in using contraceptives. More so, this study suggests a stronger need for education for Nigerian women at an early age and deepening the understanding of the barriers to contraception use with the help of the community and religious leaders.

IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON POVERTY IN NIGERIA

This study investigates the impact of population growth on poverty rate in Nigeria over the period: 1986 to 2021. To achieve this objective, time series data was collected mainly from National Population Commission (NPC) and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The data was tested for stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) techniques. The results indicate the nonstationary of the variables. That is, both population growth and poverty rate time series are integrated of order one I(1). The study tested for cointegration using Johensen cointegration and the result indicates the presence of cointegration among the variables of study. Considering the integration and cointegration nature of the data, Dynamic Ordinary Least Square was estimated to avoid the possible problems of spurious regression and serial correlation. The result revealed a significant negative long-run impact of population growth on poverty in in Nigeria. Based on the empirical findings this study recommends that both government, households, private sector and nongovernmental organisations should focus in building productive population in Nigeria.

Exploring how unemployment and grandparental support influence reproductive decisions in sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria in focus

The socioeconomic factors driving the adoption of birth limitation and lengthening birth intervals as fertility control mechanisms in sub-Saharan Africa are a subject of debate. There are also arguments over what accounts for the low performance of the adopted fertility control mechanisms, and the break experienced in the fertility transition process. To fill the gaps, the authors work from a life-course perspective and linked data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the National Population Commission to collect retrospective data from 416 participants. Drawing on the socioeconomic framework, the roles of unemployment and grandparental support in reproductive decisions were tested. Results suggest that the unemployment situation is an underlying mechanism that triggered the adoption of birth control measures in Nigeria. The results also suggest that grandparental support accounts for the slow pace of the fertility transition process. This current study concludes that the unemployment situation pressures parents to reduce the number of childbirth. However, where grandparental support for grandchildren is available, parents tend to have a large family size in line with the pro-natalist nature of Nigerians.

Mathematical modeling of Taraba State population growth using exponential and logistic models

The study models and simulates the future population growth of Taraba State using two models: exponential and logistic. Population data from 1991 to 2019 was obtained from the National Population Commission, and the models’ parameters were estimated and implemented using Python. The results showed that the exponential model performed better than the logistic model, with a higher R-squared value. Both models predict a growing population for Taraba State, reaching 9.8 million people by 2055, emphasizing the need for proper planning and policies to accommodate this growth. The study recommends that the state and federal governments use these findings to develop comprehensive plans for managing the increasing population.

Modeling the Effect of Population Density and Some Related Factors on Covid-19 Pandemic in Nigeria: An Application of Count Data Regression

Aim: Nigeria's population density and other factors like confirmed, admitted, and discharged cases have adversely impacted health behaviors and the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to investigate how population, population density, confirmed, admitted, and discharged cases affect the prevalence of the COVID-19 pandemic in the 36 states of Nigeria, including the FCT. Method: The number of COVID-19-related deaths, confirmed, admitted, and discharged individuals, from June 20, 2021, to December 31, 2022, were extracted from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) online database, while data set on the Nigeria population and density were collected from Nigeria’s National Population Commission (NPC) website. Three count data regression techniques; Poisson, Negative Binomial, and Generalized Poisson Regression models were employed to analyze these count data. Result: It was found that the number of admitted patients has a significant negative impact on COVID-19, whereas the number of confirmed laboratory COVID-19 cases has a significant positive effect on the number of deaths related to COVID-19. Additionally, the result showed that Nigeria's COVID-19 death rate is negatively impacted by discharged cases, population, and population density. Conclusion: It is inferred that the Generalized Poisson Regression model is the most suitable count data regression model for over-dispersion and is the best model for predicting the number of COVID-19-related deaths in Nigeria between June 20, 2021, and December 31, 2022.

A local government area based Covid-19 vulnerability analysis in Nigeria.

Vulnerability to COVID-19 has been widely studied from varying perspectives, but susceptibility at the grassroots has not been adequately considered. The vulnerability of the 774 local government areas (LGAs) in Nigeria to COVID-19 and its predictors were determined using road distances from the two major entry airports in the country to each of the LGAs, socio-economic indices, quality of hygiene, and the level of exposure to mass media. LGA population data were obtained from the National Population Commission of Nigeria, while socio-economic and socio-demographic data were extracted from the 2018 NDHS report. Distances were determined with the aid of an online distance calculator, distantias. The single most important predictor was female non-exposure to mass media. Distances from the COVID-19 epicentres of Lagos and Abuja did not contribute much to the model. Thus, the result highlighted the strategic position of women in the African community and the potential of the mass media in disease control. The suppression of the established effect of distance suggests that vulnerability to COVID-19 in developing countries may not follow the path assumed in developed countries. Thus, the way to contain the disease in developing countries might be the active enlightenment of women.

CONFLICT, DISPLACEMENT AND LIFE AS SELF-SETTLED INTERNALLY DISPLACED CHILDREN: AN APPRAISAL OF SOCIAL AND EDUCATIONAL CHALLENGES IN KADUNA AND KANO STATES NIGERIA

This explorative study used descriptive survey as research design to reach out and aggregate experiences of self-settled IDC in localities in Kaduna state and Kano states North-East Nigeria. Both multistage and purposive sampling techniques deployed in the study allows to unearth 212 self-settled IDC in Kaduna state and 170 in Kano state as participants in the study. The instrumentation used is the modified Qayumi, et.al. (2020) questionnaire on educational need assessment survey of the IDC in Afghanistan. Data collected were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences which elicited both the descriptive, inferential and test of the assumptions made in the study. The findings in the study reveals that majority of settled IDC studied are 11-15years old (56%), followed by those in the age brackets of 6-10years 13%, as those 1-5yeard are only 6%. In addition it is shown that 73% of the sample are male, while only 27% are female. The years in displacement shows that majority of the respondents (60%) spent 6-10 in displacement and as resettled persons. While, 29% of the sample are on 11-15 years, as only 11% of the sample were in 1-5years of displacement. Majority of the respondents state of education is Primary school at 44%, as only 33% of the respondents attends Junior Secondary Schools. Some 9% of the respondents attends Senior Secondary School, as only 6% each of the respondents gained Diploma or graduates. Majority of the respondents (89%) work to help sustained their life as settled IDC, only 20% of the respondents reported not engaging in any forms of manual work in this regard. The educational challenges reported by most subjects of the study are poor access to free and quality education, inability to pay school fees, lack of access to personal learning resources and transportation to school. The study recommends among other things that, the Federal Government through its National Population Commission should development elaborate research framework to engage in detailed nationwide study of the self-settled IDC outside Borno and Yobe states. KEYWORDS: displacement, internally displaced children, self-settlement, social and educational challenges

Computer-based fuzzy logic for forecasting the population census of Edo State, Nigeria

Although the National Population Commission's forecasting efforts have become more accurate over the years, this work aims to use fuzzy logic to predict population growth in a quicker, simpler, more accurate, and more effective way. To accomplish this goal, various data collection technologies were employed to compile data from secondary sources, including the National Population Commission of Nigeria. A thorough literature evaluation on population forecasts and censuses has already been published. Implementing a proactive population forecast was built with a stated goal in mind. Python 3 was chosen as a reliable programming language for ODEINT (Ordinary Differential Equation Integration) for Natural Growth Model and Fuzzy Time Series library functions. Due to a performance accuracy of 99.6%, the model created for population census forecasting projects the future population at a dependable time.

MODELLING URBAN SPRAWL OF THE GREATER PORT HARCOURT CITY USING REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM TECHNIQUES

In recent decades, urban sprawl has been viewed as one of the most pressing issues that cities over all the world in developing countries are batting with. It is often associated mostly with rural-urban migration and rising birth rates, where development is given precedence over urban planning. The study focuses on the urban sprawl of the greater Port Harcourt city. The greater Port Harcourt city is expanding at an unprecedented rate, with no adequate planning or statistical record. The study intends to address this issue by building models using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) tools in order to analyze urban sprawl in the Greater Port Harcourt city. To achieve this set of objectives, three sets of Landsat sensors, which were captured at different time intervals (1986, 2006, and 2021), were used to monitor urban sprawl in the study area. The Geographic Positioning System (GPS) was used during the field visit to collect the ground control points of some locations within the city. The National Population Commission (NPC) data was also employed to acquire the demographic statistics. The result of the study shows that the built-up area had expanded from 47.35 km2 (10.76%) in 1986 to 71.05 km2 (16.14%) in 2000 and to 284.68 km2 (64.68%) in 2021. This expansion in built-up area generates a decline in wetland, bare land, and forest land from 112.296 km2 (25.51%), 61.369 km2 (13.94%), and 160.152 km2 (36.39%) in 1986 to 72.468 km2 (16.47%), 86.486 km2 (19.65%), and 136.853 km2 (31.09%) in 2000, and to 42.810 km2 (9.73%), 10.858 km2 (13.94%), and 40.8384 km2 (9.28%) in 2021. The findings of the study are important because they give the government information on how quickly the study area is expanding, allowing it to adopt an appropriate planning strategy. In conclusion, the study demonstrate that remote sensing and GIS techniques can be utilized to successfully monitor the environment on a regular basis in order to investigate urban sprawl and inform better decision-making.

Computer-based fuzzy logic for forecasting the population census of Edo State, Nigeria

Although the National Population Commission's forecasting efforts have become more accurate over the years, this work aims to use fuzzy logic to predict population growth in a quicker, simpler, more accurate, and more effective way. To accomplish this goal, various data collection technologies were employed to compile data from secondary sources, including the National Population Commission of Nigeria. A thorough literature evaluation on population forecasts and censuses has already been published. Implementing a proactive population forecast was built with a stated goal in mind. Python 3 was chosen as a reliable programming language for ODEINT (Ordinary Differential Equation Integration) for Natural Growth Model and Fuzzy Time Series library functions. Due to a performance accuracy of 99.6%, the model created for population census forecasting projects the future population at a dependable time.

Analysis of household cooking energy consumption and sustainable energy resources in Abeokuta South Local Government Area, Ogun State, Nigeria

ABSTRACT The study examined the energy type used for household cooking in Abeokuta South Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. Primary data were obtained from the 15 existing political wards in the LGA. Secondary data was obtained from the National Population Commission and the State Independent National Electoral Commission. Responses were analyzed using frequency, percentage, pie-graph and Analysis of Variance. Results showed that Kerosene with (58.9%) is the dominant energy used in the area. Variations in fuel energy used in the area were significant (F=25.2, P < 0.05). In conclusion, hydrocarbons from unclean energy types dominate in the study area.

EXAMINATION OF SNAKEBITE PREVALENCE AND FACTORS PREDISPOSE TO BITE IN LANGTANG NORTH, PLATEAU STATE, NIGERIA

Snakebite poisoning is a public health concern to persons in agrarian environments and Langtang North Local Government Area is not an exception. Agricultural and field workers have been reported to be at higher risk of snakebite in this area. The objective of this paper is to examine the prevalence rate and factors predisposed to snakebite. The primary data was gotten from information drive from questionnaire interview of the respondents (victims) while secondary data was obtained from hospital records at Zamko Comprehensive Health Centre (CHC) and National Population Commission and was analysed by using frequency table and trend line as well as the prevalence rate formula (equation). The results showed that the highest number of snakebites incidence was recorded in 2017 with 117 cases, followed by 2008 and 2018 with 109 cases each. The lowest was recorded in 2014 with 33 cases of snakebites. The result further depicts that the highest number of the snakebite cases was recorded at Zamko ward with 117 cases, followed by Nyer with 100 cases, Lipchok and Kuffen C ward had 78 cases each. The prevalence rate of snakebite cases in Langtang north LGA was found to be 424/100000. The findings of the study shows that majority of the snakebite victims were farmers with 36.23% and was observed from the findings that majority 37.68% of the bites occurred in the morning time as compared to the number in the night with 33.33%. Thus, the major factors found to be associated with snakebites included farming activities

ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER POTENTIALS OF CRYSTALLINE BASEMENT COMPLEX AQUIFERS USING HYDRAULIC PROPERTIES IN THE USSA AREA OF TARABA STATE, NORTH-EAST NIGERIA

Hydrogeological parameters in part of the crystalline Basement Complex rock terrain were characterized using pumping test data. The goal of this research was to determine the aquifer characteristics and groundwater potentials in the area. A total of fifteen (15) wells were used during the investigation. Borehole depths in the studied area range from 40.00 to 45.00 meters. The yield varies from 0.68 l/s to 1.11 l/s. In general, which signify that the yields from wells were low to moderate. Transmissivity (T) ranges from 0.57 to 1.96, with 90 percent of the aquifers having transmissivity between 1.00 and 1.96m2/d and only 10percent of having transmissivity below 1m2/d. data. Transmissivity varies from low to moderate. Borehole-specific capacity ranged from 4.36 to 346 m/day. This cannot sustain a population of 121,500 people based on recommending a basic water requirement of twenty (25) litres per person per day to meet the most basic human needs. When you consider the 121,500 people that rely on these boreholes for their water, it's evident that the aquifers of the borehole have very limited production potential. The area will face a future water crisis if the population continues to expand. Around 196,553 people are expected to live there in near future according National Population Commission (NPC). This is a clear pointer that the area will face portable water crisis except government and other stakeholders involve takes drastic measures.

Spatial Expansion and Population Growth Analysis of Ogbomoso Metropolis to Forestall Overwhelming Available Infrastructures

The requirement of land for an array of uses as population grows and cities open up to further development is at an astronomical rate. This has resulted in effort to convert areas covered by water bodies into dry land. This notwithstanding, land has remain a relatively fixed asset which cannot be massively expanded by any means, but its utilization can be managed to ensure its sustainability. Most human activities are land based hence how land is used have a ripple effect on most aspects of our lives and the environment. The way and manner land is being used relative to population growth of an area must be monitored to avoid environmental degradation. This research attempts an analysis of the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes of Ogbomoso metropolis between the years 1985 and 2015 and makes projections for the next 30years at regular interval of 10years. Secondary data obtained through Remote Sensing were adopted for the research. Landsat imageries TM 1985, 1995 and ETM+ imageries of 2005 and 2015 were downloaded from the Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) while Remote Sensing techniques was adopted for data processing and analysis. Population data obtained for the study area from the National Population Commission (NPC) were used for the population projection. Land Consumption Rate and Land Absorption Coefficient were introduced to aid in the quantitative assessment of the change. Analysis of the results showed the alarming rate of growth in built-up area between the periods considered and suitable recommendations was made on measures to properly manage such growth.

Geospatial Distribution of Health Centers in Dass Local Government Area of Bauchi State, Using Geographic Information System (GIS) Tools

This paper examined the spatial distribution of health care facilities in Dass local government area of Bauchi state using GIS tools. Data were obtained from primary and secondary sources: a GPS was used to collect the coordinates of each health care facility. Data from the Ministry of Health (Bauchi State) about the location, name and types of health care facilities in the study area included one general hospital; one model primary health centre, fourteen primary health centers, one clinic, one dispensary and one health post. Population data was obtained from the National Population Commission (NPC, 2006). GIS analysis was used in analyzing the data. The analysis of nearest neighbour was done by using the extension of Arc GIS 10.5 in the spatial analyst tool and average nearest neighbour. The result shows that there is less than 1% (0.01 level of significance) likelihood that the spatial pattern of the distribution of health care facilities in Dass Local Government Area is dispersed and this could be as a result of random chance. This might be as the result of the fewer number of health facilities. The research recommends that government should locate health care services close to the people as possible as distance was found to influence utilization.

Do microfinance banks’ activities affect Nigeria’s economic development?

Microfinance banks were set up to provide financial services to poor people to reduce the rate of poverty and improve the quality of living in the country. As such, this study ascertained the effect of microfinance banks on the economic development of Nigeria. Secondary data were obtained from the CBN Bulletin and records of the National Population Commission from 1996 to 2019. The study used Vector Autoregressive (VAR) estimates to test the effect of the independent variables (microfinance banks’ total loans and advances, total investments, and total deposits) on the dependent variable (per capita income). Johansen Co-integration results showed a relationship between microfinance banks and Nigeria’s economic development in the long run. The VAR results show that the activities of microfinance banks have a positive but insignificant effect on Nigeria’s economic development in the short term. Microfinance banks have not done well in their intermediation function to positively and significantly affect economic development, especially reducing the poverty rate, unemployment rate, and improving living standards, among other macroeconomic development indices in the short run. The study recommends that microfinance banks will help to improve the standard of living in the country by granting more credits to rural dwellers through the creation of corporative societies, age grades, and unions that are predominant in rural areas. AcknowledgmentWe are grateful to all researchers who contributed to this paper.