National Pandemic Preparedness Research Articles

Cost effectiveness of preemptive school closures to mitigate pandemic influenza outbreaks of differing severity in the United States

BackgroundNonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be considered as part of national pandemic preparedness as a first line defense against influenza pandemics. Preemptive school closures (PSCs) are an NPI reserved for severe pandemics and are highly effective in slowing influenza spread but have unintended consequences.MethodsWe used results of simulated PSC impacts for a 1957-like pandemic (i.e., an influenza pandemic with a high case fatality rate) to estimate population health impacts and quantify PSC costs at the national level using three geographical scales, four closure durations, and three dismissal decision criteria (i.e., the number of cases detected to trigger closures). At the Chicago regional level, we also used results from simulated 1957-like, 1968-like, and 2009-like pandemics. Our net estimated economic impacts resulted from educational productivity costs plus loss of income associated with providing childcare during closures after netting out productivity gains from averted influenza illness based on the number of cases and deaths for each mitigation strategy.ResultsFor the 1957-like, national-level model, estimated net PSC costs and averted cases ranged from $7.5 billion (2016 USD) averting 14.5 million cases for two-week, community-level closures to $97 billion averting 47 million cases for 12-week, county-level closures. We found that 2-week school-by-school PSCs had the lowest cost per discounted life-year gained compared to county-wide or school district–wide closures for both the national and Chicago regional-level analyses of all pandemics. The feasibility of spatiotemporally precise triggering is questionable for most locales. Theoretically, this would be an attractive early option to allow more time to assess transmissibility and severity of a novel influenza virus. However, we also found that county-wide PSCs of longer durations (8 to 12 weeks) could avert the most cases (31–47 million) and deaths (105,000–156,000); however, the net cost would be considerably greater ($88-$103 billion net of averted illness costs) for the national-level, 1957-like analysis.ConclusionsWe found that the net costs per death averted ($180,000-$4.2 million) for the national-level, 1957-like scenarios were generally less than the range of values recommended for regulatory impact analyses ($4.6 to 15.0 million). This suggests that the economic benefits of national-level PSC strategies could exceed the costs of these interventions during future pandemics with highly transmissible strains with high case fatality rates. In contrast, the PSC outcomes for regional models of the 1968-like and 2009-like pandemics were less likely to be cost effective; more targeted and shorter duration closures would be recommended for these pandemics.

"We lost a lot, but something good came out of it too:" Exploring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental wellbeing of British Muslim Pakistani women with family responsibilities.

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions caused major disruption globally, shedding light on the unprecedented strain upon the mental health and wellbeing of individuals around the world. Poor mental health in the pandemic is reported to be greater in women, with mothers being at increased risk. It is unclear whether there are differences in the impact of mental wellbeing on some ethnic groups over others. The aim of this study was to explore the experiences of British Muslim Pakistani women with family responsibilities during the COVID-19 pandemic, two years on from the first lockdown. Qualitative interviews with women were conducted via telephone using a semi-structured topic guide. The sample included 25 British Muslim Pakistani women with family responsibilities, both English and non-English speaking. Women lived in households that ranged in number and included extended family. Key themes were determined using thematic analysis. Results were grouped under three themes. These were (1) Community, cultural and religious contributors to poor mental wellbeing, (2) religious and cultural mediators of mental distress, and (3) perceived positive impact on lifestyle. British Muslim Pakistani women were psychologically distressed by the high rates of virus transmission and deaths in their communities and at the prospect of older members of their extended family developing the virus. The impact of restrictions on fundamental religious and cultural interactions further exacerbated poor mental wellbeing in this population. Religion, community social capital and larger household structures were all effective coping strategies for British Muslim Pakistani women. Positive impacts of the pandemic included becoming closer to family and faith, and increased work/life harmony. An exploration of religious and cultural coping mechanisms should be used to inform future national pandemic preparedness plans, as well as effective strategies for building and maintaining social capital. This may increase adherence to physical distancing and other protective behaviours in populations.

Hospital admission and mortality rates for non-Covid diseases among residents of the long-term care facilities before and during the pandemic: a cohort study in two Italian regions.

Long-term-care facility residents are a vulnerable population who experienced reduced healthcare access during the pandemic. This study aimed to assess the indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, in terms of hospitalisation and mortality rates, among this population in two Italian Regions, Tuscany and Apulia, during 2020 in comparison with the pre-pandemic period. We conducted a retrospective cohort study on people residing in long-term-care facilities from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2020 (baseline period: 1 January 2018-8 March 2020; pandemic period: and 9 March-31 December 2020). Hospitalisation rates were stratified by sex and major disease groups. Standardised weekly rates were estimated with a Poisson regression model. Only for Tuscany, mortality risk at 30 days after hospitalisation was calculated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Mortality risk ratios were calculated using Cox proportional regression models. Nineteen thousand two hundred and fifty individuals spent at least 7 days in a long-term-care facility during the study period. The overall mean non-Covid hospital admission rate per 100 000 residents/week was 144.1 and 116.2 during the baseline and pandemic periods, with a decrease to 99.7 and 77.3 during the first (March-May) and second lockdown (November-December). Hospitalisation rates decreased for all major disease groups. Thirty-day mortality risk ratios for non-Covid conditions increased during the pandemic period (1.2, 1.1 to 1.4) compared with baseline. The pandemic resulted in worse non-COVID-related health outcomes for long-term-care facilities' residents. There is a need to prioritise these facilities in national pandemic preparedness plans and to ensure their full integration in national surveillance systems. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01925-1.

Strengthening Global Systems to Prevent and Respond to High-Consequence Biological Threats

Introduction:The world is facing the devastating impact a biological event can have on human health, economies, and political stability. COVID-19 has revealed that national governments and the international community are woefully unprepared to respond to pandemics—underscoring our shared vulnerability to future catastrophic biological threats that could meet or exceed the severe consequences of the current pandemic. This study examines potential threats related to deliberate Russian military use and misuse of the tools of modern biology or an accident caused by a CBRN event evolving rapidly in the highly volatile political environment in and around Ukraine and other conflicts.Method:A participatory foresight, co-creative, future and transformation-oriented methodology was used to structure a transformative model for a disciplined exploration of scenarios to confront complex challenges and facilitate improved outcomes. Foresight helps to evaluate current policy priorities and potential new policy directions; see how the impact of possible policy decisions may combine with other developments; inform, support and link policy-making in and across a range of sectors; identify future directions, emerging technologies, new societal demands and challenges; and anticipate future developments, disruptive events, risks and opportunities.Results:The study found that the “mitigation scenarios” are based on the “Confront, Regulate, Overcome” metamodel combined with the “Security, Rescue, Care” response modalities. These require the cooperation/coordination of law enforcement forces along with military forces, fire departments and civil security resources, hospital and first-line responder teams, in order to appropriately address populations, assets and territories issues elicited by the identified threat, which drives key decision makers’ tasks at the strategic level.Conclusion:The participatory foresight exercise demonstrated gaps in national and international biosecurity and pandemic preparedness architectures highlighted by the challenges of the Ukraine war—exploring opportunities for better cooperation to improve prevention and response capabilities for high-consequence biological events, and generate actionable recommendations for the international community.

Examining priority setting in the national COVID-19 pandemic plans: A case study from countries in the WHO- South-East Asia Region (WHO-SEARO)

BackgroundThe World Health Organization- South-East Asia Region (WHO-SEARO) accounted for almost 17% of all the confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 worldwide. While the literature has documented a weak COVID-19 response in the WHO-SEARO, there has been no discussion of the degree to which this could have been influenced/ mitigated with the integration of priority setting (PS) in the region’s COVID-19 response. The purpose of this paper is to describe the degree to which the COVID-19 plans from a sample of WHO-SEARO countries included priority setting. MethodsThe study was based on an analysis of national COVID-19 pandemic response and preparedness planning documents from a sample of seven (of the eleven) countries in WHO-SEARO. We described the degree to which the documented priority setting processes adhered to twenty established quality indicators of effective PS and conducted a cross-country comparison. ResultsAll of the reviewed plans described the required resources during the COVID-19 pandemic. Most, but not all of the plans demonstrated political will, and described stakeholder involvement. However, none of the plans presented a clear description of the PS process including a formal PS framework, and PS criteria. Overall, most of the plans included only a limited number of quality indicators for effective PS. Discussion and conclusionThere was wide variation in the parameters of effective PS in the reviewed plans. However, there were no systematic variations between the parameters presented in the plans and the country’s economic, health system and pandemic and PS context and experiences. The political nature of the pandemic, and its high resource demands could have influenced the inclusion of the parameters that were apparent in all the plans. The finding that the plans did not include most of the evidence-based parameters of effective PS highlights the need for further research on how countries operationalize priority setting in their respective contexts as well as deeper understanding of the parameters that are deemed relevant. Further research should explore and describe the experiences of implementing defined priorities and the impact of this decision-making on the pandemic outcomes in each country.

The Approach to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Georgia-A Health Policy Analysis.

Objectives: This study aimed to analyze key COVID-19 pandemic-related policies and national strategic responses in light of Georgia’s political, socioeconomic and cultural backgrounds. Methods: We applied a policy triangle framework for policy analysis, performed document and media content analysis, and described pandemic trends statistically. Results: Early introduction of stringent restrictive measures largely prevented a first wave in March–May 2020. This was communicated as a success story, prompting a public success perception. With unpopular restrictions lifted and hesitancy to embrace evidence-informed policymaking ahead of nationwide parliamentary elections, SARS-CoV-2 infection spread rapidly and was met with an insufficiently coordinated effort. Facing health system capacity saturation an almost complete lockdown was re-introduced in late 2020. Factors as delayed immunization campaign, insufficient coordination and, again, little evidence-informed policymaking eventually led to another devastating COVID-19 wave in summer of 2021. Conclusion: Georgia’s pandemic health policy response was adversely impacted by a volatile political environment. National pandemic preparedness and response might benefit from an independent body with appointment procedures and operations shielded from political influences to effectively inform and communicate evidence-based pandemic policy.

Transforming or tinkering: the world remains unprepared for the next pandemic threat

Transforming or tinkering: the world remains unprepared for the next pandemic threat

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to invest in care home research infrastructure

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in catastrophic levels of morbidity and mortality for care home residents. Despite this, research platforms for COVID-19 in care homes arrived late in the pandemic compared with other care settings. The Prophylactic Therapy in Care Homes Trial (PROTECT-CH) was established to provide a platform to deliver multi-centre cluster-randomized clinical trials of investigational medicinal products for COVID-19 prophylaxis in UK care homes. Commencing set-up in January 2021, this involved the design and development of novel infrastructure for contracting and recruitment, remote consent, staff training, research insurance, eligibility screening, prescribing, dispensing, and adverse event reporting; such infrastructure being previously absent. By the time this infrastructure was in place, the widespread uptake of vaccination in care homes had changed the epidemiology of COVID-19 rendering the trial unfeasible. Whilst some of the resources developed through PROTECT-CH will enable the future establishment of care home platform research, the near absence of care home trial infrastructure and nationally-linked databases involving the care home sector will continue to significantly hamper progress. These issues are replicated in most other countries. Beyond COVID-19, there are many other research questions that require addressing to provide better care to people living in care homes. PROTECT-CH has exposed a clear need for research funders to invest in, and legislate for, an effective care home research infrastructure as part of national pandemic preparedness planning. Doing so would also invigorate care home research in the interim, leading to improved healthcare delivery specific to those living in this sector.

The Pandemic and the Military: EU and NATO Between Resilience and Total Defence

The COVID-19 pandemic has once again seen the use of the military in support of civilian authorities. Since pandemics and other non-military challenges are likely to grow in scope and frequency, the use of the military in such contingencies will also become the ‘new normal’. However, to make the employment of the military more effective, a number of additional steps need to be taken. These range from closer cooperation of key international institutions such as the EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to specific improvements in national pandemic preparedness. Moreover, these steps must also include the establishment of a broader political framework that centres on resilience as a central paradigm and helps insulating military contributions from political antagonisms and deliberate disinformation. COVID-19, pandemic, resilience, total defence, European Union, NATO, cyber, disinformation, emerging technologies, hybrid

PIPDeploy: Development and implementation of a gamified table top simulation exercise to strengthen national pandemic vaccine preparedness and readiness

Successful emergency vaccination campaigns rely on effective deployment and vaccination plans. This applies to localised outbreaks as well as for pandemics. In the wake of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, analysis of the global Vaccine Deployment Initiative, through which the World Health Organization (WHO) donated pandemic influenza vaccines to countries in need, revealed that an absence of vaccine deployment plans in many countries significantly hindered vaccine deployment. Through the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework adopted by the World Health Assembly in 2011, WHO is engaging in several capacity building activities to improve pandemic influenza preparedness and response and make provisions for access to vaccines and sharing of other benefits. The Framework calls for the development and exercise of operational plans for deployment of influenza vaccines to enhance pandemic preparedness. To this end, WHO has supported the development of PIPDeploy, an interactive, in-person table top simulation exercise to facilitate learning for emergency preparedness. It employs various game design elements including a game board, time pressure, leaderboards and teams to enhance participants’ motivation. PIPDeploy formed part of five WHO Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Deployment Workshops attended by national-level managers responsible for pandemic influenza vaccine response predominantly in non-producing countries. The purpose of this study was to describe the features and application of PIPDeploy, and present findings of the evaluation of participants’ experiences during the simulation involving a “hot wash” discussion and collection of quantitative data. The simulation’s instructional approach was widely accepted by participants, who reported that the format was novel and engaging. They reflected on its utility for identifying gaps in their own vaccine deployment plans and regulatory frameworks for importation of vaccine products. All participants found the simulation relevant to their professional objectives. A range of other potential applications were suggested, including PIPDeploy’s adaptation to sub-national contexts and to other epidemic diseases.

COVID-19, host response treatment, and the need for political leadership.

Health officials and scientists have warned that we face the threat of a potentially devastating influenza pandemic. Instead, we are now in the midst of a global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. National and international pandemic preparedness plans have focused on developing vaccines and antiviral treatments. Another way to confront the COVID-19 pandemic (and future pandemics) might be to treat patients with inexpensive and widely available generic drugs that target the host response to infection, not the virus itself. The feasibility of this idea was tested during the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2014. This experience should inform our approach to treating COVID-19 patients. It could also save lives during outbreaks of other emerging infectious diseases and episodes of everyday acute critical illness. If this “bottom up” syndromic approach to treating acute critical illness were shown to be effective, it could have a dramatic impact on health, equity and security throughout the world.Highlights: Uncertainty about the outcome of COVID-19 is driving the social, economic and political distress associated with the pandemic.Treating the host response to COVID-19 with inexpensive and widely available generic drugs might save lives and mitigate this distress.Undertaking research on this idea will require political leadership.

Positive Religious Coping and Mental Health among Christians and Muslims in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Positive religious coping has frequently been associated with better mental health outcomes when dealing with stressful life events (e.g., natural disasters, domestic abuse, divorce). The COVID-19 pandemic, and the associated infection prevention and control measures (curfew, quarantine, restricted travel, social distancing), represent a society-wide stressor. This study explored positive religious coping among the Muslim and Christian residents of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during the early stages of the national response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants (N = 543) completed an online survey assessing religious coping in response to the pandemic, along with symptom measures of depression, anxiety and history of psychological disorder. Muslims (N = 339) reported significantly higher levels of positive religious coping compared to their Christian counterparts (N = 204). Across the whole sample, positive religious coping was inversely related to having a history of psychological disorders. Among the Muslim cohort, positive religious coping was inversely related to depressive symptoms and having a history of psychological disorders. Positive religious coping during infectious disease outbreaks may help some individuals reduce their risk of depressive illness. National pandemic preparedness plans may benefit from including a focus on religion and religious coping.

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings-International Travel-Related Measures.

International travel–related nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which can include traveler screening, travel restrictions, and border closures, often are included in national influenza pandemic preparedness plans. We performed systematic reviews to identify evidence for their effectiveness. We found 15 studies in total. Some studies reported that NPIs could delay the introduction of influenza virus. However, no available evidence indicated that screening of inbound travelers would have a substantial effect on preventing spread of pandemic influenza, and no studies examining exit screening were found. Some studies reported that travel restrictions could delay the start of local transmission and slow international spread, and 1 study indicated that small Pacific islands were able to prevent importation of pandemic influenza during 1918–19 through complete border closure. This limited evidence base indicates that international travel-related NPIs would have limited effectiveness in controlling pandemic influenza and that these measures require considerable resources to implement.

The association between socioeconomic status and pandemic influenza: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundPandemic mortality rates in 1918 and in 2009 were highest among those with the lowest socioeconomic status (SES). Despite this, low SES groups are not included in the list of groups prioritized for pandemic vaccination, and the ambition to reduce social inequality in health does not feature in international and national pandemic preparedness plans. We describe plans for a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between SES and pandemic outcomes during the last five pandemics.MethodThe planned review will cover studies of pandemic influenza that report associations between morbidity, hospitalization, or mortality with socioeconomic factors such as education and income. The review will include published studies in the English, Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish languages, regardless of geographical location. Relevant records were identified through systematic literature searches in MEDLINE, Embase, Cinahl, SocIndex, Scopus, and Web of Science. Reference lists of relevant known studies will be screened and experts in the field consulted in order to identify other additional sources. Two investigators will independently screen and select studies, and discrepancies will be resolved through discussion until consensus is reached. Covidence will be used. Results will be summarized narratively and using three meta-analytic strategies: coefficients expressing the difference between the highest and lowest socioeconomic groups reported will be pooled using (a) fixed and random effects meta-analysis where studies involve similar outcome and exposure measures and (b) meta-regression where studies involve similar outcome measures. In addition, we will attempt to use all reported estimates for SES differences in (c) a Bayesian meta-analysis to estimate the underlying SES gradient and how it differs by outcome and exposure measure.DiscussionThis study will provide the first systematic review of research on the relation between SES and pandemic outcomes. The findings will be relevant for health policy in helping to assess whether people of low socioeconomic status should be prioritized for vaccines in preparedness plans for pandemic influenza. The review will also contribute to the research literature by providing pooled estimates of effect sizes as inputs into power calculations of future studies.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO 87922

Progress and Remaining Gaps in Estimating the Global Disease Burden of Influenza.

Influenza has long been a global public health priority because of the threat of another global pandemic. Although data are available for the annual burden of seasonal influenza in many developed countries, fewer disease burden data are available for low-income and tropical countries. In recent years, however, the surveillance systems created as part of national pandemic preparedness efforts have produced substantial data on the epidemiology and impact of influenza in countries where data were sparse. These data are leading to greater interest in seasonal influenza, including implementation of vaccination programs. However, a lack of quality data on severe influenza, nonrespiratory outcomes, and high-risk groups, as well as a need for better mathematical models and economic evaluations, are some of the major gaps that remain. These gaps are the focus of multilateral research and surveillance efforts that will strengthen global efforts in influenza control in the future.

Is the global health community prepared for future pandemics? A need for solidarity, resources and strong governance.

In the wake of recent outbreaks of Zika, Ebola and the MERS‐CoV viruses, and with trust in global institutions at an all‐time low, many are asking: how prepared is the global public health community to deal with future emerging pandemics? A recent report by the Commission on the Global Health Risk Framework, convened by the US National Academy of Medicine, stated that “we are underinvested and underprepared” (GHRF Commission, 2016). What needs to be done? Our experience so far shows that collective action at national, regional and global levels, backed by strong political will and sufficient resources, is the best way to enhance pandemic preparedness and deal with what is not just a health, but a much wider global security issue. First, any effective global response to pandemics will be only as effective as national preparedness, as “the best way to prevent the global spread of diseases is to detect and contain them while they are still local” (Rodier et al , 2007). The Ebola crisis in West Africa demonstrated the dire consequences of fragile health systems unprepared to deal with a massive epidemic. National preparedness is based on the capacities for surveillance, rapid diagnosis, case management, a trained health workforce and surge capacity within the health infrastructure to deal with large numbers of affected persons. WHO's International Health Regulations (IHR), which covers surveillance, monitoring, containment and core capacity building, serves as a guide for countries to strengthen their national health infrastructure and pandemic preparedness. Within a larger context, the strengthening of health systems through provision of universal health care is necessary to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Touraine et al , 2014), and pandemic preparedness must be seen as a part of the overall health infrastructure in a holistic and integrated manner. Unfortunately, many developing countries are not sufficiently prepared …

Factors affecting preparedness and capacity to manage pandemic influenza: perceptions of healthcare managers

ObjectivesNumerous interventions seeking to increase preparedness for pandemic influenza have been implemented, but low compliance of healthcare providers has been reported in many instances. The aim of this study was to identify factors that affect preparedness for pandemic influenza by examining: hospital managers' perceptions of measures implemented to promote preparedness for pandemic influenza; hospital managers' assessments of the readiness and capability of their hospitals to manage pandemic influenza; and the effectiveness of a national pandemic preparedness programme in Israel over time. Study designA quasi-experiment was conducted following implementation of a national pandemic preparedness programme in Israel. A survey assessed hospital managers' perceptions of the effectiveness of the programme, and the preparedness and capacity of their hospitals to manage pandemic influenza. Two independent evaluations of preparedness for biological threats were conducted, based on a validated tool that included 60 objective parameters. MethodsCorrelations between perceived preparedness and capacity and components of the preparedness programme were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences Version 17. Stepwise logistic regression was used to determine the components that influence preparedness and capability to manage pandemic influenza. ResultsAll general hospital managers in Israel were approached twice (first and second evaluations). Ninety-one percent rated themselves as highly/very highly prepared for pandemic influenza, and 87% rated themselves as highly/very highly capable of dealing with pandemic influenza. Strong correlation was found between hospital managers' perceived preparedness and capacity to manage pandemic influenza (rho = 0.761, P = 0.000), and between perceived preparedness and familiarity with the disease (rho = 0.605, P = 0.003). Familiarity with guidelines accounted for 35% of the variance in perceived capability (adjusted R2 = 0.346, P = 0.002). Inclusion of preparedness evaluations explained an additional 15% of the variance (R2 change = 0.146, P = 0.026). An increase in mean total score for emergency preparedness was found in the second evaluation compared with the first evaluation. ConclusionsFamiliarity with guidelines and preparedness evaluations affect the perceptions of healthcare managers regarding preparedness and capability to manage pandemic influenza.

Insufficient preparedness of primary care practices for pandemic influenza and the effect of a preparedness plan in Japan: a prefecture-wide cross-sectional study

BackgroundCases of emerging infectious diseases, including H5N1 influenza, H7N9 influenza, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, have been reported in recent years, and the threat of pandemic outbreaks persists. In Japan, primary care is the frontline against emerging infectious diseases in communities. Although the importance of pandemic preparedness in primary care has been highlighted previously, few studies have thus far investigated the preparedness among primary care practices (PCPs) or differences in the preparedness of different institutional settings. We examined PCP preparedness and response to the 2009 influenza pandemic in Japan, and explored the role of a pandemic preparedness plan during the pandemic.MethodsWe used a survey questionnaire to assess how well individual PCPs in Okinawa, Japan, were prepared for the 2009 influenza pandemic. The questionnaire was mailed to all eligible PCPs (N = 465) in Okinawa, regardless of their institutional setting. In addition, we assessed the differences in the preparedness of clinics and hospitals and determined whether the national preparedness plan affected individual preparedness and response. Data were analyzed using descriptive and logistic regression analyses.ResultsA total of 174 (37.4%) PCPs responded to our survey. In general, high-level personal protective equipment (PPE) such as N95 masks (45.4%), gowns (30.5%), and eye protection (21.3%) was stocked at a low rate. Clinic-based PCPs were significantly less prepared than hospital-based PCPs to provide N95 masks (OR 0.34), gowns (OR 0.15), and eye protection (OR 0.18). In addition, only 32.8% of PCPs adopted an adequate business continuity plan (BCP). After controlling for institutional setting, reading the national preparedness plan was significantly associated with establishment of a BCP (OR 5.86), and with knowledge of how to transfer a swab specimen to a local medical laboratory (OR 5.60).ConclusionsWith regard to PPE availability, PCPs (especially clinic-based PCPs) were not adequately prepared for the influenza pandemic. Awareness of the national pandemic preparedness plan is likely to promote prefecture-wide implementation of BCPs and surveillance activity.

Antivirals in the 2009 pandemic – lessons and implications for future strategies

The World Health Organization's declaration of an imminent swine-origin influenza A pandemic in April 2009 triggered the global launch of national pandemic preparedness plans. An integral component of pandemic preparedness in many countries was the targeted use of antiviral therapy for containment, disease mitigation, and treatment. The 2009 pandemic marked the first pandemic during which influenza antivirals were available for global use. Although most national pandemic plans included provisions for antiviral treatment, these pre-determined protocols required frequent updating as more information became available about the virus, and its susceptibility to antiviral agents, the epidemiology of infection, and the population groups that were most susceptible to severe disease. National public health agencies in countries with both plans for use of antivirals and pre-existing stockpiles, including those in Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, operated distinctly different antiviral distribution and treatment programs from one another. In the 3 years following the pandemic, there is still little comparison of the diversity of national antiviral treatment policies and drug distribution mechanisms that were implemented, whether they had any mitigating effects and which might be most efficient. The purpose of this study is to outline roles of antiviral medicines in a pandemic period, provide insights into the diversity of antiviral treatment and distribution policies applied by selected countries between April 2009-July 2010, and to stimulate discussion on whether these policies remain appropriate for implementation in future pandemics.

Routes of influenza transmission

Remarkably little is known definitively about the modes of influenza transmission. Thus, important health policy and infection control issues remain unresolved. These shortcomings have been exposed in national and international pandemic preparedness activities over recent years. Indeed, WHO, CDC, ECDC and the U.S. Institute of Medicine have prioritised understanding the modes of influenza transmission as a critical need for pandemic planning. Studying influenza transmission is difficult; seasonality, unpredictable attack rates, role of environmental parameters such as temperature and humidity, numbers of participants required and confounding variables all present considerable obstacles to the execution of definitive studies. A range of investigations performed to date have failed to provide definitive answers and key questions remain. Reasons for this include the fact that many studies have not sought to investigate routes of transmission as a primary objective (instead, they have evaluated specific interventions) and that fieldwork in natural settings, specifically assessing the dynamics and determinants of transmission between humans, has been limited. The available evidence suggests that all routes of transmission (droplet, aerosol and contact) have a role to play; their relative significance will depend on the set of circumstances acting at a given time. Dictating the process are factors related to the virus itself, the host and the environment.