National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Research Articles

A Quantile Regression Approach to Areal Interpolation

Areal interpolation has been developed to provide attribute estimates whenever data compilation or an analysis requires a change in the measurement support. Over time numerous approaches have been proposed to solve the problem of areal interpolation. Quantile regression is used in this study as the basis of the areal interpolator because it provides estimates conditioned on local parameters rather than global ones. An empirical case study is provided using a data set in northern New England. Land cover data, provided by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, derived from remotely sensed images for 2001 captured by the LANDSAT Thematic Mapper at a resolution of 30 × 30 meters, are used for the ancillary variables for the regression model. The utility of quantile regression as an areal interpolation method is evaluated against simple averages, areal weighting, dasymetric interpolation, and ordinary least squares and spatial regression methods. For the empirical data set used in the study, results show that quantile regression was a better interpolator for the given data set but that binary dasymetric interpolation was a close second. These results were only for one data set and further evaluation is necessary before more general conclusions can be made.

Sea-ice monitoring over the Caspian Sea using geostationary satellite data

A new technique is proposed for sea-ice mapping using observations from geostationary satellite over the Caspian Sea. A two end-member linear-mixture approach has been employed. A neural-network-based approach was used to simulate water and ice reflectances for all possible sun–satellite geometries. The ice-mapping technique incorporates an advanced cloud-detection algorithm with adaptive threshold values. The average percentage of cloud reduction because of the daily compositing ranged from 22% to 25%. Daily maps of ice distribution and concentration with minimal cloud coverage were produced for the winter seasons of 2007 and 2008. The retrieved ice distribution demonstrated a good agreement with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images and National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) snow and ice charts. The obtained correlation coefficients with IMS charts for 2007 and 2008 were 0.92 and 0.83, respectively. The technique has been proposed as one of the candidate ice-mapping techniques for the future Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R) Advance Baseline Imager (ABI) instrument.

Analysis of Trends in Vegetation Avhrr-Ndvi Data Across Sokoto State 1982 – 1986 Using Remote Sensing and GIS

The current situation in vegetation productivity across Nigeria and indeed in Sokoto State is being affected by climatic change and other unfavourable environmental conditions. Time-series Remotely Sensed data within Geographic Information System (GIS) environment can be utilized to timely monitor the trajectory in vegetation productivity and dynamics in environmentally unstable areas across the state. In this study, dekadal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder (PAL) dataset was utilised in monitoring trends in vegetation NDVI productivity for 5-year growing seasons (July, August and September) within seven selected sites of irrigated and rainfed croplands across Sokoto State from 1982 to 1986. Ground truthing was conducted using Global positional System (GPS) and digital camera to establish typical status of the individual selected sites and evaluated with the IDRISI-ANDES GIS software. Profiles of the monitored sites were plotted using Excel Spreadsheet. Results have shown that shelter belts within the study area have high variability in vegetation NDVI productivity in all the growing season months compared to the irrigated and rain-fed cropland sites. Although studies have shown that NDVI from AVHRR has strong correlations with rainfall and net primary productivity particularly in the arid and semi arid areas, the month of July 1985, August 1985 and September 1984 had shown very low vegetation NDVI productivity in all the sites monitored compared to the productivity of the preceding months. This is likely to be connected to the Elnino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) warm phase (changes in sea surface temperature) which other studies have shown that it affected the world primary net production (NPP). Keywords: Vegetation, Changes, Remote Sensing and GIS

A Global Optimal Solution With Higher Order Continuity for the Estimation of Surface Velocity From Infrared Images

A global optimal solution (GOS) provides surface velocities from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) remote image sequences using bilinear interpolation algorithms. Although an accurate velocity field can be estimated by GOS from a sequence of infrared images, the field has only first-order continuity. Because an actual coastal ocean has a complex irregular coastland and some ocean studies need vorticity and divergence analysis, which must be extracted from the velocity field, the development of generic GOS algorithms with higher order continuity and smoothed cutouts around these edges is very important. This paper addresses the issues of higher order continuity and smoothed cutouts around coastland edges for using GOS to estimate surface velocities. GOS bilinear polynomials, previously applied to square tiles with first-order continuity, are replaced by surface B-spline functions. The new GOS algorithms can be applied to AVHRR images containing complicated coastal land boundaries, even clouds, to yield smooth velocity fields next to land and higher order continuity velocity fields. The velocity fields obtained through the applications of the first- and higher order GOS techniques to a sequence of two National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration AVHRR images, which were taken from the New York Bight fields, are compared with those measured with the CODAR array. The retrieved velocity fields are used directly to calculate the surface divergence and vorticity. It is found that the angular and magnitude errors of the velocity by the first- and third-order GOSs are quite close for both numerical model data and AVHRR image sequences, and the velocity field estimated by the third-order GOS is globally smoothed.

Ozone, PM10, and Synoptic Circulation Patterns Associated with Asthma/Myocardial Infarction Hospital Admissions

ISEE-0896 Background and Objective: Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale tropospheric motion systems) are likely to affect air pollution and morbidity associations, in light of increased global warming and changing climactic patterns. We evaluated the effect of synoptic circulation patterns (air masses) on the association of air pollution (PM10 and O3) and asthma/myocardial infarction (MI) hospital admissions among adults in North Carolina. Methods: Daily surface meteorology data (including precipitation, wind speed, dew point) for five selected cities in North Carolina were obtained from the Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration. We used a spatial synoptic classification (SCC) system (Sheridan, 2002) to classify each day over the ten year period with one of eight different climatic patterns (dry polar, moist tropical, etc.). Daily 24 hour ambient concentrations of PM10 and O3, were obtained from the U.S. EPA AQS (Air Quality System.) Asthma and MI hospital admissions data from a ten year period, 1996–2005, were obtained from the NC Department of Health and Human Services. Generalized linear models (GLMs) were used to assess the association of the hospitalizations with PM10 and O3 concentrations and specific air mass types with a zero to five day lag. We examined the effect across cities on days with same air mass type. In all models we adjusted for relative humidity, pressure, dew point, temperature, wind speed, and day-of-the-week effects. Results: Ozone was associated with asthma and MI admissions under dry moderate air conditions (23% increase [95% CI 17, 30] and 17% increase [95%CI 10, 19], respectively.) PM10 was associate with asthma hospitalizations (19% increase, 95%CI 6, 28], but not MI hospitalizations, under dry moderate conditions. A similar pattern was found for the moist tropical air mass. Conclusions: Certain synoptic circulation patterns in conjunction with ambient air pollutant levels, were associated with increased asthma and MI hospitalizations.

Spatial and temporal responses of different crop‐growing environments to agricultural drought: a study in Haryana state, India using NOAA AVHRR data

Spatial and temporal responses to agricultural drought of different districts with different crop‐growing environments were assessed using National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)‐derived monthly time composite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images of a drought year (2002) and a normal year (2004) in Haryana state, one of the most prolific agricultural states of India. The seasonal NDVI profiles derived from NOAA AVHRR data, despite coarse spatial resolution, successfully captured the response of vulnerable districts to drought events. The greenness (NDVI) in mid‐season and at the end of the season of drought and normal years was compared. Districts having less irrigation support due to insufficient canal supplies and poor quality of groundwater had very high NDVI deviation from normal, signifying the impact of severe drought conditions in terms of reduced/delayed sown area, poor germination etc. in the year 2002. The districts with high irrigation support (surface water plus good quality groundwater) have either higher NDVI or insignificant deviation from a normal year and are not influenced by meteorological drought. Thus, quality of groundwater in different districts is a key factor to determine the vulnerability and sensitivity of the district to meteorological drought events in the study area state. The results of the study are relevant for vulnerability mapping and drought hazard zonation in the state to aid in‐season and long‐term management of droughts.

A chronology of hurricane landfalls at Little Sippewissett Marsh, Massachusetts, USA, using optical dating

Optical dating has been applied to sediments preserved in Little Sippewissett Marsh, Massachusetts, USA, which are associated with overwashing of the beach barrier during hurricane strikes on the coast. The aims were to determine the hurricane landfall frequency, and make comparisons with independent age control and the historical record. Written sources of hurricane activity along the American east coast are only considered reliable back to the mid 19th century, but the sedimentary record is potentially much longer. Optical dating was applied to quartz grains extracted from thirteen samples within a sediment core from the salt-marsh. Variability in the luminescence characteristics between aliquots was observed and ~ 33% of the measured aliquots were discarded based upon the ratio of the fast component to the medium component. The majority of the samples gave normal dose distributions implying homogeneous resetting of the luminescence signal at the time of deposition, but three of the samples required application of the minimum age model (MAM). Ages ranging between 20 ± 2 and 594 ± 38 years were obtained and are broadly in agreement with independent chronologies, thus demonstrating the potential of optical dating in this setting. The hurricane record based upon optical dating extends approximately 300 years further back in time than the official National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) record. The localised nature of hurricane landfalls means that it will be necessary to collect multiple cores from a number of different sites in order to build up a complete hurricane record for this part of the coast.

Value of bulk heat flux parameterizations for ocean SST prediction

Bulk heat flux parameterization is an increasingly popular technique for forcing non-coupled ocean models. If sea surface temperature (SST) from the model is colder (warmer) than observed, then the net heat flux will be higher (lower) than observed; thus, bulk parameterizations tend to keep model SST close to observational SST on long time scales. However, bulk parameterizations imply neither strong damping of SST variability nor strong relaxation to near-surface (e.g., at 10 m) air temperature ( T a). This is demonstrated using SST simulations from a 0.72° × 0.72° cos(lat) (longitude × latitude) resolution global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) that does not include assimilation of any SST data or explicit relaxation to any SST climatology, but does use bulk heat fluxes. Results are discussed when climatological wind and thermal atmospheric forcing for HYCOM are constructed from three different archived numerical weather prediction (NWP) products: (1) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 15-year Re-Analysis during 1979–1993 (ERA-15), (2) ECMWF 40-year Re-Analysis (ERA-40) during 1979–2002, and (3) the Common Ocean Reference Experiment Corrected Normal Year forcing version 1.0 (CORE-CNY) based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) re-analysis which spans 1948–2002. To investigate the implications of the bulk heat flux approach as relaxation to SST and T a, HYCOM SST simulations are used to demonstrate that model SST errors with respect to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) SST climatology do not look like T a − SST fields from NWP products. Such a result is confirmed for all simulations forced with ERA-15, ERA-40 and CORE-CNY, separately. Overall, global averages of mean HYCOM SST error are 0.2 °C (1.5 °C), 0.4 °C (1.7 °C) and 0.6 °C (2.3 °C) with respect to NOAA SST (NWP T a) climatology when the model uses atmospheric forcing from ERA-15, ERA-40 and CORE-CNY, respectively.

Dynamics of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) level and cosmophysical activity

Background C-reactive protein (CRP), an acute phase reactant, plays an important part in the investigation of the role of inflammation in pathology. Many cardiovascular events show significant associations with various cosmophysical parameters. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the level of CRP and the levels of solar, geomagnetic (GMA), and cosmic ray activity. Methods The results of 25,399 serum CRP tests carried out over a 3-year period were compared with the monthly and daily levels of solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray activity during the same period. The cosmophysical data were obtained from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S. and from the Russian Academy of Science. Results On a monthly basis, CRP levels showed no correlation with GMA ( n = 36, r = 0.258, p = 0.13), but there was a significant inverse relationship with neutron activity ( r = − 0.35, p = 0.03). For the daily comparisons, CRP levels were significantly correlated with GMA ( n = 1057, r = 0.97, p = 0.02), and there was a significant inverse relationship with neutron activity ( r = − 0.97, p = 0.025). Daily neutron activity was higher on days with CRP levels of 0–1.0 mg/dl ( n = 289) and above1.0–1.5 mg/dl ( n = 1213) than on days with higher CRP values (> 1.5; n = 23,897; p < 0.0001). Conclusion The level of serum CRP, in addition to its association with inflammation, is related to the daily level of GMA and inversely to the level of neutron activity.

OBSERVING EARTH VIA SATELLITE

THE U.S. GOVERNMENT needs to fund 17 new Earth-observing satellite missions over the next decade, says a two-year study from the National Research Council. Without increased funding for such missions, the report warns, critical data on climate change, hurricanes, winds, polar ice, and shifting patterns of drought and rainfall will not be available. Prepared by a panel of more than 100 earth scientists, the NRC report sets priorities for the next decade for Earth observation projects at NASA and the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). At a time when it's never been more important to observe and understand the Earth in all its aspects and to apply this understanding for the benefit of society, the number of Earth-observing instruments on NASA satellites will fall 40% by 2010 unless something is done to reverse the trend, says report cochair Richard A. Anthes, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. The general investments in earth ...

Oceanic typhoon rainfall estimation using Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit‐A data

An area, including Luzon and regions near Taiwan, is located on the main path of western North Pacific tropical cyclones (typhoons). The goal of this study was to develop a satellite rainfall algorithm in order to assist in reducing the damage to livelihoods and economies caused by typhoon rainfall. The microwave data from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit‐A (AMSU‐A) onboard the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)‐15+ were used to estimate oceanic typhoon rainfall over regions near Taiwan. The techniques are to screen rainfall over the oceans by checking cloud liquid water and scattering indices, to classify rain type by using threshold checks and to derive rain intensities from the regressive relationship between satellite microwave brightness temperature (T b) and island‐gauge rain rate (RR). The regression of the emission‐based mechanism rainfall used data from AMSU channels at 23.8 and 31.4 GHz regarding the sensitive response to cloud liquid water and to estimate RR over the oceans directly. In addition, the regression of the scattering‐based mechanism rainfall combined low frequency (23.8 and 31.4 GHz) with high frequency (89 GHz) data. As to quantitative validation for the estimated and observed RR, the coefficient of determination is 0.87. Study results showed that one can estimate the rain intensity as typhoon approaching regions near Taiwan, which should increase preparedness against natural calamities in advance.

Atmospheric trajectories and spring bird migration across the Gulf of Mexico

We examined the relationship between the longitude of peak arrival of trans-Gulf migrants on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in spring and wind trajectories over the Gulf at three different altitudes (500, 1,500, and 2,500 m above ground level). We used data from 10 WSR-88D radars (weather surveillance radar-1988-Doppler) from Brownsville, Texas, to Key West, Florida, to record the time and longitude of peak arrival on the northern Gulf coast for four spring migrations (2001–2004). We used the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory HYSPLIT transport and dispersion model at the READY Web site to generate backward, 24-h atmospheric trajectories based on archived atmospheric data for each trans-Gulf flight. The trajectories began at the geographic location where radar indicated the greatest concentrations of arriving migrants. Although the longitude of peak arrival varied, peak densities of most trans-Gulf migrants arrived on the northern coast near longitude 95°W. Regression analyses showed that the relationship between the longitude of peak trans-Gulf arrival and the direction of atmospheric trajectory was significant but weak at the 500-m level, where few migrants occurred, and was insignificant for the 1,500- and 2,500-m altitudes, where migrant densities were greater. We conclude that winds aloft over the Gulf have little influence on the longitude of peak trans-Gulf arrival on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and we speculate that the arrival pattern may reflect the trans-Gulf migration pathways that evolved during the Last Glacial Maximum.

Engineering research in ocean sector: An international profile

In this paper attempt has been made to study the engineering research scenario in ocean sector across the countries - globally. To understand the research dynamics, the articles appeared in Science Citation Index (SCI) database under Ocean Engineering category in the year 2000 were analyzed to visualize the structure of the field. USA and UK are the major producers - 62% of the total output contributed by them. The cooperation linkages between engineers, organizations, countries and journals were mapped. The causal linkages between the productivity function and the socio-economic imperatives of the production units were studied. 62% output in this sector goes to USA & UK. They are also toppers in collaboration centrality list. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), USA; National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), India are the most productive institutions. GDP explains only 36% of variance in productivity (R2 = 0.36). M Longuethiggins and CC Mei are the most cited authors in the field. Co-citation maps of cited authors and cited journals throw light on the semantic structure of the field. Studies in wave mechanics and modeling of waves are the most important areas of research in Ocean Technology.

Evaluating vegetation recovery following large-scale forest fires in Borneo and northeastern China using multi-temporal NOAA/AVHRR images

This study evaluated whether a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), derived from 8-km-resolution National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Pathfinder AVHRR (advanced very high resolution radiometer) land (PAL) data, is appropriate for monitoring recovery following large-scale forest fires. Recovery processes were examined after fires on the island of Borneo and in northeastern China in 1983 and 1987, respectively. Based on pre- and post-fire NDVI differences (NDVId), six damage classes were established. Post-fire changes in land cover were monitored using (1) the average NDVI of all pixels corresponding to each damage class (A-NDVI) and (2) the ratio of a fire-affected A-NDVI to a non-fire-affected A-NDVI (QNDVI). Burn areas located by an NDVId threshold value were similar to reported burn areas. Both A-NDVI and QNDVI values signaled vegetation recovery, but the QNDVI gave much better results. For both the 1983 Borneo and 1987 northeastern China fires, QNDVI values dropped at the time of the fire and increased for about 4 years afterwards, although a 4-year period is obviously less than the time required for biomass recovery. Trends at the two study sites diverged after this period, however. The QNDVI values for multiple fire events in Borneo (in 1983, 1987, 1991, 1997, and 1998) showed that recovery times varied with the size of the burn area, but not with the damage class of the same event, whereas the severe-class QNDVI values for the fire in northeastern China in 1987 were still lower than the control value 10 years after the fire.

Broadband calibration of R/V Ewing seismic sources

The effects of anthropogenic sound sources on marine mammals are of increasing interest and controversy [e.g., Malakoff, 2001]. To understand and mitigate better the possible impacts of specific sound sources, well‐calibrated broadband measurements of acoustic received levels must be made in a variety of environments. In late spring 2003 an acoustic calibration study was conducted in the northern Gulf of Mexico to obtain broad frequency band measurements of seismic sources used by the R/V MauriceEwing. Received levels in deep water were lower than anticipated based on modeling, and in shallow water they were higher. For the marine mammals of greatest concern (beaked whales) the 1–20 kHz frequency range is considered particularly significant [National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and U. S. Navy, 2001; Frantzis et al., 2002]. 1/3‐octave measurements show received levels at 1 kHz are ∼20–33 dB (re: 1 μPa) lower than peak levels at 5–100 Hz, and decrease an additional ∼20–33 dB in the 10–20 kHz range.

Analysis of phenological change patterns using 1982–2000 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data

Using the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) Pathfinder Land dataset (PAL data) from 1982–2000, vegetation phenology (onset, peak and offset) was defined and analysed with climate data. In areas of precipitation-dependent phenology such as Central Africa, it was found that Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is affected approximately 20–40 days after the occurrence of precipitation, depending on land cover types. In areas of temperature-dependent phenology such as Siberia, the relationship of phenology and latitude/elevation was investigated. Using temporal NDVI data of 1982–2000, changes in seasonal NDVI pattern were classified into 11 classes and mapped in the Northern Hemisphere. From this analysis, increasing trends of the annual sum of NDVI were found in Siberia, NE Europe and the northern part of North America where good correspondence with the increasing trend of air temperature was recognized. In contrast, some areas such as the east of the Aral Sea showed a decreasing trend of the annual sum of NDVI. It was found that, in the Northern Hemisphere, the area with increasing trend of the annual sum of NDVI is approximately 12 times larger than the area with the decreasing trend. Also, it was found that areas of increasing/decreasing trend of the annual sum of NDVI correspond roughly to areas with increasing/decreasing trend of air temperature from 1982 to 1995.

Validation of VEGETATION, MODIS, and GOES + SSM/I snow‐cover products over Canada based on surface snow depth observations

AbstractThe ability to map the areal depletion of snow accurately is important for operational decision making (e.g. reservoir management), for correct specification of boundary conditions in numerical weather‐prediction models, and for modelling atmospheric, hydrological and ecological processes. A number of satellite‐derived snow‐cover products are available in real time; however, these can differ considerably due to variations in sensor and platform characteristics, data pre‐processing methods, and the particular snow‐cover classification algorithms employed. This article evaluates the performance of three daily snow‐cover products over Canada: (1) Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow‐cover maps provided at 500 m spatial resolution for 2001; (2) National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) GOES + SSM/I snow maps provided at 4 km resolution for 2001 (∼30 km resolution SSM/I data were used for cloud‐covered areas); (3) SPOT‐4 VEGETATION (VGT) snow maps derived at 1 km resolution for 2000. An evaluation of the snow‐cover products with daily surface snow depth observations collected from almost 2000 meteorological stations across Canada revealed that the VGT snow product used in this study may not be suitable for snow mapping in Canada because of a significant bias towards mapping snow‐free conditions. The MODIS and NOAA products showed similar reasonable levels of agreement with ground data, ranging from approximately 80% to 100% on a monthly basis. Somewhat lower agreement was found in January, when solar zenith angles are large, suggesting that better correction for tree and surface shadow effects is needed in current snow‐cover mapping algorithms. The lowest agreement was seen during snowmelt, mainly in forest areas. Comparison of MODIS agreement statistics between sparse and dense conifer regions indicated that the effect of non‐representativenes of surface snow depth observations was on the order of 10% disagreement. The NOAA product was found to be the most consistent among land cover types and had the highest percentage of cloud‐free pixels. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

The effect of orbit drift on the calibration of the 3.7 µm channel of the AVHRR onboard NOAA-14 and its impact on night-time sea surface temperature retrievals

The orbit drift of National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-14 towards the terminator has caused the deterioration of the radiometric calibration of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 3.7 µm channel at night. This deterioration is a result of solar contamination of the radiometric calibration system when the sun strikes the instrument from the spacecraft horizon. The long-term trend and seasonal variation of the contamination are analysed in this study based on trending data from 1995 to 2000. The calibration bias is evaluated and its effect on the sea surface temperature retrievals is quantified. The solar contamination in late 2000 affected as much as 25% of an orbit of data, compared to an average of 7% in 1995. The NOAA/NESDIS operational calibration algorithm partially corrects for the bias but residual effects can still contribute bias on the order of 0.5 K in scene brightness temperature.

Monitoring desertification risk with an index integrating climatic and remotely‐sensed data

In this paper a desertification risk index (DRI) based on the integration of climatic data and the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), obtained from National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration advance very high‐resolution radiometer (NOAA‐AVHRR) images, is discussed at the light of the aridity index and some eco‐physiological parameters. The good correlation between DRI, the aridity index and the eco‐physiological parameters suggests that DRI could be useful to measure the desertification risk. One advantage of DRI is that, with the help of a geographic information system (GIS), DRI maps can be easily obtained in short time and at relatively low costs.

Land use and vegetation fires in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia

In Indonesia, vegetation fires occur every year in the dry season. To determine where and why fires occur, the natural and cultural landscape features that influence the location of fires were analysed. We investigated the probability of fire occurrence as a function of predisposing conditions and ignition sources, such as land use, land use zoning, accessibility or land cover, to understand the spatial determinants of fires. The study area is the entire province of Jambi, central Sumatra, Indonesia. This province has a diverse setting of actors (small- and large-holders), land cover types and land uses. Fires were extracted for 1992/1993 from National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite data. The results of the spatial statistical analysis show that fire occurrence in Jambi Province in 1992/1993 was determined both by predisposing conditions (mostly climate, elevation and suitability for specific tree crops) and human-related causes (presence of transmigration projects and land allocation to specific land uses). National policies are thus a major driving forces of fires through land allocation. Road accessibility is only an important determinant of fires in forests. Few fires seem to be accidental. While logging companies control fire during their exploitation of concessions, logged-over forests and forests allocated to production but not yet under use have many fires. In 1992/1993, large- and small-holders were likely to be both responsible for fire occurrence. These results highlight the large influence of land use and policies on vegetation fires in Indonesia.