National Lockdown Research Articles

The risk of developing dementia in the COVID-19 pandemic; a cohort study.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on cognitive decline are not fully understood. Higher social activity and relationships have been associated with decreased risk of dementia. We hypothesised that risk of transition to dementia would increase after the start of the first national lockdown. We obtained data from the Brains for Dementia (BDR) cohort, which has collected roughly annual data on 3726 older adults with and without dementia since 2008. Data continued to be collected during the lockdowns, although by telephone and/or video call instead of in person. Individuals diagnosed with dementia at study entry were excluded from this study as were individuals with only one visit. Cognitive status was classified using the Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) global score. Poisson regression with cubic splines to account for differences in age was used to compare the incidence of dementia before and after March 1st 2020. Out of 2242 individuals, 208 individuals developed dementia before and 50 developed dementia after 01/03/20. The incidence rate ratio of developing dementia after 01/03/20 was 0.847 (0.538-1.335) p=0.570. In our secondary analysis we found that the positive association between mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia incidence decreased after 1/3/20 (interaction effect p=0.031). The incidence of dementia as defined using the CDR global score did not change significantly after the first lockdown began, but we found evidence that lockdown decreased the positive association between MCI and dementia incidence. This may reflect that individuals were progressing to dementia more rapidly and thus missing the MCI stage or that assessing patients over the phone made diagnosing MCI more challenging.

Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Emergency Department Visits, Hospital Admissions, and Mortality in Northern Jordan: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Background: The Jordanian healthcare system was significantly affected by the COVID19 pandemic, as lockdowns and infections strained the healthcare system. The impact of the ensuing national lockdown on emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and mortality is unclear. Purpose: To assess the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the pattern of emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and mortality at a major hospital in northern Jordan. Methods: An electronic database belonging to King Abdullah University Hospital was used for a retrospective analysis, and the data was accessed in 2022. All patients who visited the emergency department before, during, and after the lockdown in 2020 and 2019 were analyzed using an interrupted time-series analysis. Descriptive statistics were calculated for categorical variables, followed by the Wilcoxon Signed-Ranks Test to detect mean differences. Results: ED visits decreased by 53.5% during the lockdown period and by 22% after the lockdown period compared to the same periods a year before. During lockdown, hospital admissions rose significantly from 11.8% in 2019 to 17.1% in 2020, with 23.96% critical care unit admissions. Post-lockdown, ED admissions increased from 11.3% in 2019 to 16.3% in 2020, with critical care admissions rising to 30.10%, and the mortality rate increased by 50%. Conclusion: The study concluded a decrease in hospital admissions and emergency visits during lockdown, but an increase in mortality rates. Future planning should focus on optimizing care for lifethreatening emergencies, improving national emergency preparedness, and developing Hospital Readiness Checklists for effective response to emergencies like COVID-19. Implications for Nursing: Nursing has faced challenges and changes due to the COVID19 lockdown. Patient admissions decreased after the 2020 lockdown, impacting nursing practice, mental health, and patient care. Nurses should be adapted to telehealth services, maintain care remotely, and address nurses’ mental health issues. Virtual tools should be utilized to connect with patients. Keywords: Jordan, COVID-19, Lockdown, Emergency department, Hospital admissions, Interrupted time series analysis.

The impact of maternal mood and economic stress during Covid-19 pandemic on infant behaviour: Findings from the cross-sectional UK Covid-19 New Mum Study.

The UK Covid-19 New Mum Study (cross-sectional study) recorded maternal experience during the early stages of the pandemic. Our previous analyses showed that the pandemic and 2020 national lockdown negatively impacted maternal mental health. Here, we describe changes in infant behaviour (crying and fussiness) reported by the mother during the Covid-19 pandemic compared to beforehand, and test whether these changes are associated with maternal variables (mental health, coping, financial insecurity, income and household support). We included only responses of mothers whose infants were born before the pandemic started (n = 2,031). Composite scores for maternal mental health and coping were obtained using principal components analysis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to test whether maternal mood and coping and household financial stresses were associated with changes in infant behaviour considered negative (becoming fussier, crying more). Adjusting for confounders, the odds of the infant being fussier and crying more increased by 52% (OR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.35;1.72) and 64% (OR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.38;1.95), respectively, if the mother experienced poorer mental health. If the mother coped better and had more time to focus on her health and interests, the odds of these outcomes decreased by 27% (OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.65;0.83) and 23% (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.65;0.91), respectively. Mothers who reported that, during the lockdown, household chores were more equally divided 'to a high extent' had 40% (OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.39;0.92) lower odds of reporting that their babies became fussier. Reporting major/moderate impact on food expenses was associated with the infant crying more (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.16;5.50). Our results are consistent with previous studies showing that maternal wellbeing plays a significant role in children's behavioural changes during lockdowns. We need strategies to improve mental health and enable women to develop the skills to maintain resilience and reassure their children in challenging times.

Delay of Surgery for Spinal Metastasis due to the COVID-19 Outbreak Affected Patient Outcomes.

The present study is to analyze the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 2019) outbreak and the subsequent lockdown on the outcomes of spinal metastasis patients. The study was a retrospective analysis of data from a prospective cohort study. All patients underwent surgical intervention for spinal metastases between January 2019 and December 2021 and had at least 3 months of postoperative follow-up. The primary outcome was overall mortality during the 4 different stages (pre-COVID-19 era, COVID-19 pandemic except in Taiwan, national lockdown, lifting of the lockdown). The secondary outcomes were the oncological severity scores, medical/surgical accessibility, and patient functional outcome during the 4 periods as well as survival/mortality. A total of 233 patients were included. The overall mortality rate was 41.20%. During the Taiwan lockdown, more patients received palliative surgery than other surgical methods, and no total en bloc spondylectomy was performed. The time from surgeon visit to operation was approximately doubled after the COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan (75.97, 86.63, 168.79, and 166.91 hours in the 4 periods, respectively). The estimated survival probability was highest after the national lockdown was lifted and lowest during the lockdown. In the multivariate analysis, increased risk of mortality was observed with delay of surgery, with emergency surgery having a higher risk with delays above 33 hours, urgent surgery (below 59 and above 111 hours), and elective surgery (above 332 hours). The COVID-19 pandemic and related policies have altered daily clinical practice and negatively impacted the survival of patients with spinal metastases.

Inclusion of young children with autism spectrum disorder during the COVID-19 lockdowns

Children with autism spectrum disorder face numerous challenges throughout their childhood and beyond. These challenges include demonstrating behavioural and emotional immaturity, and a lack of grasping intuitively unspoken rules and norms, to mention but a few. Deviating from the norm heightens these challenges. One of the sudden changes brought about by the national lockdown was the extended closure of early childhood development centres. There is a dearth of studies that explored the perceptions of early childhood care and education educators’ knowledge of the inclusion of children with autism spectrum disorder. As a result, I employed case study methodology to explore these educators’ perceptions of the inclusion of young children with autism spectrum disorder in regular education, as well as how these perceptions influenced the inclusion of these children in regular education during the lockdowns of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) period. Three early childhood care and education educators from a semi-urban early childhood development centre were purposively sampled. Using the 4 key principles of special education needs and disabilities, I concluded that early childhood care and education educators lacked knowledge of teaching and accommodating young children with autism spectrum disorder in everyday education during the COVID-19 lockdowns. The study calls for a stern consideration of these educators’ knowledge development and reimagination of their understanding of children with autism spectrum disorder during trying times and beyond.

Value Added Tax Registration and E-filling Status in Revenue Administration in Nepal

Nepal has also improved the implementation of VAT since 1998 both legally and administratively due to liberalization. A key problem facing revenue administrations in many developing countries is operating manual paper-based recording systems henceforth e-filling systems address this issue (William & Huang, 2019). This research was designed descriptively and secondary data was used ranging from FY 2065/66 to 2078/79. The number of VAT registrations sharply increased during the study period. The main reason behind to rise in VAT registration is simplifying the VAT procedures, introducing or launching the ICT, and wide coverage of business in VAT and PAN by IRD. To sum up, both VAT and PAN registration numbers were rising during the study period. Similarly, the average VAT and PAN registration numbers were 170334 and 899714 respectively. Both VAT non-filers and income tax non-filers taxpayers were fluctuating during the study period with 27.04% and 48.6% on average. The non-filler taxpayers under VAT and income tax were the highest at 38.46% and 58.36% in FY 2076/77 and FY 2067/68 respectively during the study period. The non-filler VAT and income taxes were still 33% and 45% in the fiscal year 2078/79. The reason behind the rise from 25.10% of VAT non-filler to 2076/77 and last year was that due to COVID-19 international and national cases and lockdowns around all places of Nepal, almost all businesses were closed suffering from COVID-19. Hence, the implementation of the efilling system needs to be effective and tax-friendly for the taxpayer.

COVID-19, education and access to digital technologies: A case study of a secondary school in Gauteng

The first South African case of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in March 2020 escalated to the national lockdown by the end of March 2020. This caused serious repercussions for learners, as there is a lack of infrastructure in South Africa to support online teaching and learning. The purpose of this study was to investigate the use of digital technologies during COVID-19 by teachers. A case study was used and data were collected using a desktop literature review and a semi-structured, open-ended, qualitative questionnaire. The questionnaire was administered to teachers at a secondary school in the Gauteng province, South Africa (SA) and Atlas.ti was used for data analysis. We conclude that online learning was affected by socio-economic problems, the high cost of data and the lack of devices and parental supervision. The recommendations include ways in which government could prepare for future crises that could arise, as well as promoting ongoing attention to digital technology use in teaching and learning to address the digital divide in South Africa. With this study we add to the body of knowledge regarding COVID-19 and the use of digital technologies in teaching and learning, which will assist the government and teachers in understanding the problems and solutions for the use of digital technology in teaching and learning.

RAPID DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION EXPERIENCES FOR SOCIAL CONNECTEDNESS AMONG LOW-INCOME OLDER ADULTS

Abstract Digital technology has become critical for making social connections and providing social support during COVID-19. However, social isolation challenges disproportionately affected older adults living alone in low-income communities due to a lack of internet access, digital technology ownership, and limited capital. We conducted a mixed-methods study to examine the role of digital technology in this population to keep socially connected during the national lockdown (N=25; 76% African American). Of the participants, 36% reported social isolation, and 36% reported loneliness. Both quantitative and qualitative data illustrate differential experiences of technology use for remaining socially connected. The qualitative data from focus group interviews show that participants were forced to adapt to the isolated situation quickly by learning about new ways of connecting with others through technology. This enabled a long-overdue adoption of digital technologies among individuals who had experienced digital exclusion before the pandemic. Despite the high interest in digital technology-enabled social connections, concerns about its surveilling nature, the possibility of over-dependence on technology, and negative technology experiences due to unreliable functions or lack of tech support made them hesitant to adopt new technology. Future research should highlight the need to include older adults in all stages of technological solution development that recognize the sociocultural context of use with a focus on growth-oriented opportunities for older people.

The Clash of Pro and Anti-Protest Sentiments during the Pandemic: Youths’ Narratives in Malaysia and Hong Kong as Contrasting Political Communication

The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching effects, impacting not only the health and economic sectors but also the global political landscape. In response, certain youth groups have turned to protests as a means of expressing their dissatisfaction with their governments. This study aims to analyse the conflicting narratives between protest groups that support the right to assemble and the anti-protest narratives promoted by governments. While the Malaysian and Hong Kong governments implemented Movement Control Order and a national lockdown respectively, to curb the spread of the coronavirus, young people within these countries perceived these measures as incompatible with their political objectives. This study employs a narrative analysis approach and the theoretical framework of New Social Movement (NSM) in order to examine this issue. The findings of this study indicate the youths in Malaysia and Hong Kong who supported mobilizing protests during the pandemic perceive the government’s presented narratives and response as a defence mechanism to opportunistic suppression of democratic, government-critical actions. Thus, it can be concluded that there is a clear clash of implicit political messages conveyed by both the youths and governments, with the pandemic serving as the instigating factor in motivation for or against the mobilization of protests. Keywords: Protest, political-communication, youth, Malaysia, Hong Kong.

OLDER AGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE COMPLEX PERCEPTIONS OF ROMANTIC RELATIONSHIP QUALITY DURING THE COVID-19 LOCKDOWN

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to mitigate its devastating effects posed unparalleled challenges to romantic relationships. National lockdowns forcing couples to spend long hours in closed quarters were especially straining, yet evidence points to considerable variability in the effect of the pandemic on relationship quality. Drawing on socioemotional selectivity theory, we examined age differences in perceptions of romantic relationship quality as one source of insight into this variability. During the first lockdown in Israel, 280 adults aged 25-81 reported positive and negative qualities of their romantic relationships. Of these, 105 participants completed the survey again once lockdown restrictions were lifted. Contrary to our hypotheses based on socioemotional selectivity theory, we found no evidence for age differences in the effect of the lockdown on perceptions of relationship quality. In addition, the lockdown did not influence participants’ positive and negative perceptions of their romantic partners. However, we found that whereas people of all ages represent positive and negative qualities of their romantic partners as separate constructs, the negative association between the two is weaker for older adults compared to younger adults during (but not after) the lockdown. This finding suggests that in stressful times, older adults are better able to avoid negative perceptions clouding positive perceptions and see positive aspects of relationships with romantic partners in the face of negative ones. Findings extend evidence for age associations with complex emotional experiences to emotional aspects of interpersonal relationships and may inform potential interventions for improving romantic relationships during stressful times.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on rates and predictors of missed hospital appointments in multiple outpatient clinics of The Royal Hospital, Sultanate of Oman: a retrospective study

BackgroundThe global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant changes in the delivery of health care services such as attendance of scheduled outpatient hospital appointments. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the rate and predictors of missed hospital appointment in the Sultanate of Oman.MethodsA retrospective single-centre analysis was conducted to determine the effect of COVID-19 on missed hospital appointments at various clinics at The Royal Hospital (tertiary referral hospital) in Muscat, Sultanate of Oman. The study population included scheduled face-to-face and virtual appointments between January 2019 and March 2021. Logistic regression models were used with interaction terms (post COVID-19) to assess changes in the predictors of missed appointments.ResultsA total of 34, 3149 scheduled appointments was analysed (320,049 face-to-face and 23,100 virtual). The rate of missed face-to-face hospital appointments increased from 16.9% pre to 23.8% post start of COVID-19, particularly in early pandemic (40.5%). Missed hospital appointments were more frequent (32.2%) in virtual clinics (post COVID-19). Increases in missed face-to-face appointments varied by clinic (Paediatrics from 19.3% pre to 28.2% post; Surgery from 12.5% to 25.5%; Obstetrics & Gynaecology from 8.4% to 8.5%). A surge in the frequency of missed appointments was seen during national lockdowns for face-to-face and virtual appointments. Most predictors of missed appointments did not demonstrate any appreciable changes in effect (i.e., interaction term not statistically significant). Distance of patient residence to the hospital revealed no discernible changes in the relative effect pre and post COVID-19 for both face-to-face and virtual clinic appointments.ConclusionThe rate of missed visits in most clinics was directly impacted by COVID-19. The case mix of patients who missed their appointments did not change. Virtual appointments, introduced after start of the pandemic, also had substantial rates of missed appointments and cannot be viewed as the single approach that can overcome the problem of missing hospital appointments.

Globate 360 Solutions: Test on the Wheels

Rohit Prashar, director of Globate 360 Solutions Private Limited, a Chandigarh-based third-party logistics company with a global presence, faced a pivotal challenge on 25 August 2020. He secured a project to transport 200 consignments of crucial medical equipment for COVID testing machines to multiple locations in north-eastern states, Kashmir and Leh, India. This project was awarded by a US-based freight forwarding company authorized by The Indian Council of Medical Research. It was a prestigious achievement, hard-won through extensive negotiations during the national lockdown. However, he knew that the real battle had just begun. The stringent government restrictions during the COVID-19 lockdown added complexity. The consignments had to be transported delicately to maintain the testing equipment’s accuracy, necessitating minimal jolts. Deciding between air and road transport posed another challenge. Furthermore, he grappled with the choice between a multinational company with a premium price tag and a regional player with more budget-friendly options. Securing skilled labour was an ongoing concern. In this predicament, he sought cost-effective solutions for each shipment, strategizing to minimize costs while delivering top-notch service to his clients.

Pandemic, Imagination, and the Rise of the Animal Kingdom

The worldwide outbreak of COVID-19 caused most countries to declare a national lockdown during the spring of 2020 to avoid the further spread of infection. By the end of April of that year, most large urban centers in the world faced empty streets, closed businesses, and an eerie absence of their human population. During the lockdown, a new legend emerged, largely popularized by the media and different social networks: around the world, wildlife was repopulating and reclaiming the urban space once occupied by humans. This article addresses wildlife tales that appeared in the media during the first major lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020. I argue that these stories share narrative patterns with other catastrophe tales, that they were created as a vernacular mechanism to cope with confinement, and that they were also a creative manifestation of human hope for a better post-pandemic world.

Public engagement by early career researchers during the COVID-19 pandemic: case studies from East Africa.

Community engagement and involvement (CEI) in research usually depends on face-to-face interactions. However, the COVID-19 pandemic prevented such interactions because of national lockdowns and social distancing. This paper highlights the ways in which early career researchers from East Africa tackled CEI activities during the pandemic. We provide four case examples that illustrate how early-career researchers based in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, deployed different approaches and initiatives to community-engaged research during the pandemic to encourage participation and uptake of research findings. All the three early-career researchers attempted to use virtual/digital means to implement the CEI. However, in each country, this attempt was unsuccessful because of poor connectivity, as well as many poorer students lacking access to telephones and computers. Nevertheless, the researchers effectively engaged the students using different activities (making up songs, drawing comics, and taking part in quizzes) once the schools reopened. These results highlight the complexity of implementing community engagement and involvement in health research when face-to-face interaction is not possible. The findings are relevant to researchers who wish to incorporate community engagement in their research and initiatives.

Understanding Pandemic Solidarity: Mutual Support During the First COVID-19 Lockdown in the United Kingdom

Abstract Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the concept of solidarity has been invoked frequently. Much interest has centred around how citizens and communities support one another during times of uncertainty. Yet, empirical research which accounts and understands citizen’s views on pandemic solidarity, or their actual practices has remained limited. Drawing upon the analysis of data from 35 qualitative interviews, this article investigates how residents in England and Scotland enacted, understood, or criticised (the lack of) solidarity during the first national lockdown in the United Kingdom in April 2020—at a time when media celebrated solidarity as being at an all-time high. It finds that although solidarity was practiced by some people, the perceived lack of solidarity was just as pronounced. We conclude that despite frequent mobilisations of solidarity by policy makers and other public actors, actual practices of solidarity are poorly understood—despite the importance of solidarity for public health and policy.

The consequence of the closure of primary care dental services on secondary care during the COVID-19 pandemic – A national outlook

BackgroundAfter the global pandemic of COVID-19 in March 2020, restrictions were implemented on all aspects of routine dental-care with a primary focus to urgent care only. AimTo investigate the impact on secondary care medical facilities and Emergency Department (ED) admissions for the management of severe dental infections as a result of restricted access to routine primary dental-care during the period of COVID-19 restrictions. DesignNational level Hospital Episode Statistics was used to describe the number of inpatient admissions for the drainage of a dental abscess and the attendance for dental related to ED. Data was stratified across ethnicity, sex and deprivation. ResultsThere was a decrease in admission to secondary care for dental infection and total admissions during the initial period of national lockdown due to COVID-19. Incidence of dental abscess drainage equalled 4.51 per100,000 person years from 2018 to 2021. There was a 209 % increase in admissions in patients with greatest deprivation. This was much more exaggerated compared to that of non-dental comparison conditions and total inpatient admissions. Using subsequent inpatient admission as a marker of severity, 4.2 % dentally related ED attendance required onward admission. ConclusionA large proportion of ED attendances with dental related conditions did not require inpatient admission, therefore a large proportion of ED attendances could be managed more appropriately in specific dental services. Dental infections requiring surgical admission disproportionality affects the most deprived communities of the population which is much more exaggerated compared to peri-anal and total inpatient admissions. This highlights the inequalities and links with deprivation that exist in oral and dental health in England, which is much greater than that of general health if total admissions are used as maker for this. This research highlights the need to improve access to primary dental-care services.

The Impact of COVID-19-induced Crisis on Rural Zimbabwe

The outbreak of the novel Corona virus disease (COVID-19) in late 2019 in Wuhan, China, had a serious impact on people’s lives, especially on students residing in rural Zimbabwe who were sitting examinations at the end of 2020. In order to curtail the spread of COVID-19, governments across the world instituted lockdowns. When positive cases rose exponentially in Zimbabwe, the government imposed a national lockdown for an indefinite period, from 30th April 2020, restricting movement within the country. Universities found themselves in a crisis as time went by without meaningful lecturer-student interaction. As a result, they resorted to using online platforms, particularly Google Classroom and WhatsApp, in order to reach out to their learners. This qualitative study was a case study in its design and twelve students were sampled using the convenience sampling technique for semi-structured interviews and twenty respondents to complete semi-structured questionnaires. The study revealed that students were so poor that they could hardly afford buying gadgets such as laptops and smart phones. Some students also bemoaned that, even if they could afford, they found it difficult to operate the gadgets. Furthermore, other students observed that they experienced Internet connectivity challenges which would require that they travelled to places far away from where they lived. The study recommends that the Government considers uplifting the lives of the rural students and the general rural populace by attending to connectivity issues and rural electrification as priorities that would culminate in bridging the digital divide between the rural and urban population.

Rise of The Hot Clinic

Abstract Introduction The surgical hot clinic was opened in December 2019 as part of our emergency surgical service. Despite initially poor uptake, the clinic has demonstrated its resilience through two national lockdowns and continuing pressures within the NHS. We report a two-month snapshot of activity in the unit. Methods Between June 1st and 1st August 2023, 299 patients were seen in the clinic. We analysed the data for patient demographics referral source and presenting complaint. Outcome measures included inpatient admission and patient discharge. Results 299 patients attended the clinic during the study period. The number of patients seen each day varied between 4 and 12 (median 5). Of these, 147 (49.1%) were male and 152 (50.9%) were female. The referral source was primary care in 28%, Emergency Department in 37.2% and ward discharges accounted for 34.8%. Abdominal pain accounted for the majority of presentations (39.5%,), abscesses (22.4%), urological complaints (17%) complex wounds (5%), rectal bleeding (3.4%), hernial disease in 2%. Miscellaneous conditions accounted for the remainder (10.7%). 279 patients were discharged from the clinic, the admission rate from the clinic 6.7% Conclusions The surgical hot clinic has become an invaluable for patient assessment and emergency surgical care, remaining open even when other areas of the trust have been closed due to the pandemic or NHS pressures. We recommend an emergency surgical ‘hot clinic’ as part of the framework in the provision of emergency surgical services.

From advocating to attending: The shifting role of the South African Council of Churches during the COVID-19 pandemic

The South African Council of Churches (SACC) has been on the receiving end of criticism from scholars since 1994. This article contends that the 2020 national lockdown at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic was the pinnacle of the renewal of the SACC. Churches had to contend with the question of “the new normal for churches”, as they grappled with, among other issues, distant communication, social and economic relief, law enforcement brutality against citizens, domestic violence, encouragement of frontline workers, and the place of faith, science, and traditional medicine in combatting the deadly virus. Analysing primarily e-mails to member churches, media coverage, and documents from the SACC between March, 17th and September 2020, this paper undertook a systematic approach to the SACC’s response to the national lockdown. The SACC analysed its context through consultation with external bodies and member churches. It also prayed and reflected on the immediate challenges faced by the country. The paper concludes that the SACC took a more pastoral posture, with a shift from “advocating to attending” reminiscent of the pre-1994 church.

Pandemic modeling with the game of life

The generalized semi-classical game of life (gSCGOL) is a cellular automaton in which qubits evolve through repeated applications of birth, death, and survival operators. gSCGOL is used to model human–virus interactions during the COVID-19 pandemic by using cell “liveness” to be equivalent to the human population that is vulnerable to the disease. A match to the United Kingdom (UK) daily 7-day average COVID-19 deaths was achieved by daily changes to a parameter V representing the vulnerability of the population to the virus. The model predicts that the first COVID-19 virus entered the UK on December 22, 2019 with an uncertainty of ±1 days. The changes in the vulnerability V elucidate the human response to the unfolding pandemic during 2020, quantifying the impact of the lockdown, the relaxation of restrictions, and the opening and closing of schools. The model predicts that starting the first UK national lockdown one week earlier would have led to 40% fewer COVID-19-related deaths, equivalent to 17 000 lives.