National Lightning Detection Network Research Articles

ISUAL far‐ultraviolet events, elves, and lightning current

The Imager of Sprites and Upper Atmospheric Lightnings (ISUAL) often recorded events that have significant far‐ultraviolet (FUV) emissions in the spectrophotometer but have no discernible transient luminous events (TLEs) in the imager. These FUV events likely are dim TLEs. To confirm the conjecture, lightning emissions were simulated and proved to be completely absorbed by the atmosphere. The FUV emission of the FUV events follows the lightning OI emission within 1 ms, similar to the characteristics of elves. After analyzing the imager‐N21P brightness of the elves and their FUV intensity, a linear correlation was found, which is consistent with the work of Kuo et al. (2007). The intensity of the FUV events ranks among the dimmest elves and is less than 1 × 104 photons/cm2. Combining all the information, the FUV events are identified as dim elves that eluded the detection of the ISUAL imager. Also from the detection limits of the ISUAL spectrophotometer (SP) and the imager, for the before‐the‐limb elves the detection number of SP is found to be nearly 16 times higher than that of the imager. This result is consistent with a related factor of ∼13 that was inferred from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) peak current distribution for the negative cloud‐to‐ground lightning. Hence the ISUAL spectrophotometer can be used to perform elve survey, to infer the peak current of the elve‐producing lightning, and possibly to be used to deduce other lightning parameters. Evidence is also found for the existence of multielves, which are FUV events from the M‐components or the multiple strokes in lightning flashes.

A Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology for Romania

Abstract The first study of the characteristics of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning in Romania, based on the data recorded by the Romanian National Lightning Detection Network (RNLDN), is presented. The data, more than 1.75 million CG flashes, covers the entirety of Romania and were recorded between January 2003 and December 2005 and January and December 2007. The spatial analyses (total and positive flash density, the percentage of positive flashes, and negative and positive peak currents) were done with a resolution of 20 km. The average spatial distribution shows a maximum (3.06 flashes km−2 yr−1) over the south slopes of the central meridional Carpathians possibly associated with the Romanian Plain convergence zone. The mean monthly variation shows maximum CG lightning between May and September (98%) and minimum values in December and January. High values (>0.028 km−2 yr−1) for positive CG lightning density are observed in southwestern and central Romania. The monthly distribution of positive flashes shows a main maximum in May (25%) and a secondary maximum in August (23%), suggesting that positive flashes tend to occur earlier in the year than total flashes. The mean annual percentage of positive flashes has lower values at 1.3% in the central parts of the country. The percentage of positive CG flashes changes over the year from 1% in June to 19% in January. The monthly variation of the median first-strike peak currents has a maximum in winter and reaches a minimum in July, for both negative and positive currents. The mean diurnal cycle for total CG lightning flashes peaks between 1230 and 1430 UTC (2.2%) and shows a minimum between 0600 and 0800 UTC (0.3%).

Objective Satellite-Based Detection of Overshooting Tops Using Infrared Window Channel Brightness Temperature Gradients

Abstract Deep convective storms with overshooting tops (OTs) are capable of producing hazardous weather conditions such as aviation turbulence, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. This paper presents a new objective infrared-only satellite OT detection method called infrared window (IRW)-texture. This method uses a combination of 1) infrared window channel brightness temperature (BT) gradients, 2) an NWP tropopause temperature forecast, and 3) OT size and BT criteria defined through analysis of 450 thunderstorm events within 1-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery. Qualitative validation of the IRW-texture and the well-documented water vapor (WV) minus IRW BT difference (BTD) technique is performed using visible channel imagery, CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar, and/or Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) cloud-top height for selected cases. Quantitative validation of these two techniques is obtained though comparison with OT detections from synthetic satellite imagery derived from a cloud-resolving NWP simulation. The results show that the IRW-texture method false-alarm rate ranges from 4.2% to 38.8%, depending upon the magnitude of the overshooting and algorithm quality control settings. The results also show that this method offers a significant improvement over the WV-IRW BTD technique. A 5-yr Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-12 OT climatology shows that OTs occur frequently over the Gulf Stream and Great Plains during the nighttime hours, which underscores the importance of using a day/night infrared-only detection algorithm. GOES-12 OT detections are compared with objective Eddy Dissipation Rate Turbulence and National Lightning Detection Network observations to show the strong relationship among OTs, aviation turbulence, and cloud-to-ground lightning activity.

Weekly cycle of lightning: Evidence of storm invigoration by pollution

We have examined summertime 1998–2009 U.S. lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) to look for weekly cycles in lightning activity. As was found by Bell et al. (2008) for rain over the southeast U.S., there is a significant weekly cycle in afternoon lightning activity that peaks in the middle of the week there. The weekly cycle appears to be reduced over population centers. Lightning activity peaks on weekends over waters near the SE U.S. The statistical significance of weekly cycles over the western half of the country is generally small. We found no evidence of a weekly cycle of synoptic‐scale forcing that might explain these patterns. The lightning behavior is entirely consistent with the explanation suggested by Bell et al. (2008) for the cycles in rainfall and other atmospheric data from the SE U.S., that aerosols can cause storms to intensify in humid, convectively unstable environments.

Detecting Multiple Ground Contacts in Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Flashes

Abstract Video recordings of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes have been analyzed in conjunction with correlated stroke reports from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) to determine whether the NLDN is capable of identifying the different ground contacts in CG flashes. For 39 negative CG flashes that were recorded on video near Tucson, Arizona, the NLDN-based horizontal distances between the first stroke and the 62 subsequent strokes remaining in a preexisting channel had a mean and standard deviation of 0.9 ± 0.8 km and a median of 0.7 km. The horizontal distances between the first stroke and the 59 new ground contacts (NGCs) had a mean and standard deviation of 2.3 ± 1.7 km and a median of 2.1 km. These results are in good agreement with prior measurements of the random errors in NLDN positions in southern Arizona as well as video- and thunder-based measurements of the distances between all ground contacts in Florida. In cases where the distances between ground contacts are small and obscured by random errors in the NLDN locations, measurements of the stroke rise time, estimated peak current, and stroke order can be utilized to enhance the ability of the NLDN to identify strokes that produce new ground terminations.

Seasonal dependence of energetic electron precipitation: Evidence for a global role of lightning

Analysis of the DEMETER spacecraft particle data shows that energetic electron precipitation exhibits a seasonal dependence consistent with lighting‐induced electron precipitation (LEP). Over the United States, energetic electron fluxes in the slot region (between L = 2 and 3) are significantly higher in the northern summer than in the winter, consistent with the seasonal variation of lightning activity in the Northern Hemisphere. The association of precipitating fluxes with lightning is explored using lightning location data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and VLF wave data on DEMETER. The increased precipitation of particles into the drift loss cone over the Northern Hemisphere in summer is consistent with expected pitch‐angle scattering by lightning‐generated whistler waves, indicating that lightning is a significant contributor to the loss of slot region electrons.

Investigating Possible Links between Incoming Cosmic Ray Fluxes and Lightning Activity over the United States

Abstract During the past two decades, particular scientific attention has been drawn to the potential cosmic ray–atmospheric coupling. Galactic cosmic rays reaching the upper troposphere are suggested as the key modulators of the global electric circuit, with further implications on cloud microphysical processes. Unfortunately, the scarcity of the associated observations renders the evaluation of the theoretical mechanisms rather difficult. This contribution proposes a different approach by introducing observations provided by the National Lightning Detection Network for the period 1990–2005. The study area encompasses the greater part of continental United States and the surrounding waters. The results highlight a statistically significant positive trend between monthly lightning activity and galactic cosmic ray fluxes during the winter season. During the summer season, the trend becomes statistically nonsignificant. In addition, the featured analysis introduces a technique to assess the potential impact of Forbush events on daily lightning activity. Results illustrate that lightning activity may be responsive (minimized) 4–5 days after a Forbush event.

Structure and Evolution of Precipitation along a Cold Front in the Northeastern United States

Abstract Heavy precipitation in the northeastern United States is examined through observational and numerical modeling analyses for a weather system that produced extreme rainfall rates and urban flash flooding over the New York–New Jersey region on 4–5 October 2006. Hydrometeorological analyses combine observations from Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) weather radars, the National Lightning Detection Network, surface observing stations in the northeastern United States, a vertically pointing lidar system, and a Joss–Waldvogel disdrometer with simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Rainfall analyses from the Hydro-Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) system, based on observations from WSR-88D radars in State College, Pennsylvania, and Fort Dix, New Jersey, and WRF model simulations show that heavy rainfall was organized into long-lived lines of convective precipitation, with associated regions of stratiform precipitation, that develop along a frontal zone. Structure and evolution of convective storm elements that produced extreme rainfall rates over the New York–New Jersey urban corridor were influenced by the complex terrain of the central Appalachians, the diurnal cycle of convection, and the history of convective evolution in the frontal zone. Extreme rainfall rates and flash flooding were produced by a “leading line–trailing stratiform” system that was rapidly dissipating as it passed over the New York–New Jersey region. Radar, disdrometer, and lidar observations are used in combination with model analyses to examine the dynamical and cloud microphysical processes that control the spatial and temporal structure of heavy rainfall. The study illustrates key elements of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall that can be used to characterize flash flood hazards in the urban corridor of the northeastern United States.

An Overview of Lightning Locating Systems: History, Techniques, and Data Uses, With an In-Depth Look at the U.S. NLDN

Lightning in all corners of the world is monitored by one or more land- or space-based lightning locating systems (LLSs). The applications that have driven these developments are numerous and varied. This paper describes the history leading to modern LLSs that sense lightning radiation fields at multiple remote sensors, focusing on the interactions between enabling technology, scientific discovery, technical development, and uses of the data. An overview of all widely used detection and location methods is provided, including a general discussion of their relative strengths and weaknesses for various applications. The U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) is presented as a case study, since this LLS has been providing real-time lightning information since the early 1980s, and has provided continental-scale (U.S.) information to research and operational users since 1989. This network has also undergone a series of improvements during its >20-year life in response to evolving detection technologies and expanding requirements for applications. Recent analyses of modeled and actual performance of the current NLDN are also summarized. The paper concludes with a view of the short- and long-term requirements for improved lightning measurements that are needed to address some open scientific questions and fill the needs of emerging applications.

Lake-Effect Thunderstorms in the Lower Great Lakes

Abstract Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning, radar, and radiosonde data were examined to determine how frequently lake-effect storms (rain/snow) with lightning occurred over and near the lower Great Lakes region (Lakes Erie and Ontario) from September 1995 through March 2007. On average, lake-effect lightning occurred on 7.9 days and with 5.8 storm events during a particular cool season (September–March). The CG lightning with these storms had little inland extent and was usually limited to a few flashes per storm. Some storms had considerably more, with the most intense storm (based on National Lightning Detection Network observations) producing 1551 CG flashes over a 4-day period. Thundersnow events were examined in more detail because of the rarity of this phenomenon across the United States. Most lake-effect thundersnow events (75%) occurred in November and December. An analysis of model sounding data using the Buffalo Toolkit for Lake Effect Snow (BUFKIT) software package in which lower boundary conditions can be modified by lake surfaces showed that thundersnow events had an 82% increase in the mean height of the −10°C level when compared with nonelectrified lake-effect snowstorms (1.2 vs 0.7 km AGL), had higher lake-induced equilibrium levels (EL; above 3.6 km AGL) and convective available potential energy (CAPE; >500 J kg−1), had low wind shear environments, and were intense, single-band storms. A nomogram of the altitude of the −10°C isotherm and EL proved to be useful in predicting lake-effect thundersnowstorms.

Development of a Long-Range Lightning Detection Network for the Pacific: Construction, Calibration, and Performance*

Abstract The waveguide between the earth’s surface and the ionosphere allows very low-frequency (VLF) emissions generated by lightning, called sferics, to propagate over long distances. The new Pacific Lightning Detection Network (PacNet), as a part of a larger long-range lightning detection network (LLDN), utilizes this attribute to monitor lightning activity over the central North Pacific Ocean with a network of ground-based lightning detectors that have been installed on four widely spaced Pacific islands (400–3800 km). PacNet and LLDN sensors combine both magnetic direction finding (MDF) and time-of-arrival (TOA)-based technology to locate a strike with as few as two sensors. As a result, PacNet/LLDN is one of the few observing systems, outside of geostationary satellites, that provides continuous real-time data concerning convective storms throughout a synoptic-scale area over the open ocean. The performance of the PacNet/LLDN was carefully assessed. Long-range lightning flash detection efficiency (DE) and location accuracy (LA) models were developed with reference to accurate data from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Model calibration procedures are detailed, and comparisons of model results with lightning observations from the PacNet/LLDN in correlation with NASA’s Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) are presented. The daytime and nighttime flash DE in the north-central Pacific is in the range of 17%–23% and 40%–61%, respectively. The median LA is in the range of 13–40 km. The results of this extensive analysis suggest that the DE and LA models are reasonably able to reproduce the observed performance of PacNet/LLDN. The implications of this work are that the DE and LA model outputs can be used in quantitative applications of the PacNet/LLDN over the North Pacific Ocean and elsewhere. For example, by virtue of the relationship between lightning and rainfall rates, these data also hold promise as input for NWP models as a proxy for latent heat release in convection. Moreover, the PacNet/LLDN datastream is useful for investigations of storm morphology and cloud microphysics over the central North Pacific Ocean. Notably, the PacNet/LLDN lightning datastream has application for planning transpacific flights and nowcasting of squall lines and tropical storms.

HF signatures of powerful lightning recorded on DEMETER

Emissions in the HF range (1.7 – 3 MHz) are observed at the times of powerful lightning on the low‐altitude satellite DEMETER. At ∼700 km, wave activity observed on the E field spectrograms recorded on DEMETER during nighttime is mainly dominated by upgoing 0+ whistlers and higher‐order dispersed whistlers. Over a period of 30 months, 130 events with HF emissions at frequency ∼2 MHz have been observed at the time of intense 0+ whistlers on VLF spectrograms. A global map of the distribution of events indicates that they do not occur above regions of most thunderstorm activity such as the upper part of South America or the middle of Africa. This lack of occurrence above these two near‐equatorial regions is consistent with the high value of the critical frequency of the F layer which prevents the transionospheric propagation of the HF component of the lightning pulses up to 700 km. The time, location, intensity, and polarity of the lightning discharges related to a subset of these HF events are determined above the North American region with the National Lightning Detection Network. As most of the events are recorded in Survey Mode when full resolution of the data is not available, the neural network on board DEMETER is used to determine the times of the 0+ whistlers recorded by the satellite with a time accuracy of ∼0.1 s. The impulsive HF events correspond to intense lightning discharges occurring in regions immediately below the satellite. It is assumed that the propagation of these HF pulses up to the altitude of the satellite is favored by local ionospheric heating due to high thunderstorm activities.

V‐shaped VLF streaks recorded on DEMETER above powerful thunderstorms

We report the observation of unusual V‐shaped streaks on VLF spectra observed on the low‐altitude satellite DEMETER during its overcrossing of highly active (i.e., high lightning flash rate) thunderstorms. At ∼700 km, wave activity observed on the E‐field spectrograms at mid‐to‐low latitudes during nighttime are mainly dominated by upgoing 0+ whistlers and occasional reflected (from the other hemisphere) whistler components. Over a 3 year period, 87 events with V‐shaped streaks associated with intense and numerous 0+ whistlers in VLF range have been observed. Using the National Lightning Detection Network for cases above the North American region indicates that these V‐shaped streaks exclusively occur when DEMETER passes above intense isolated thunderstorms, with relatively high (tens per second) lightning flash activity. Using a new model of VLF propagation in the Earth‐ionosphere waveguide, and transionospheric leakage to the satellite altitude, it is shown that the funnel‐like “V” shape of the streaks is a simple consequence of the mapping to high altitude of frequency‐dependent position of mode interference nulls (and crests) within the Earth‐ionosphere waveguide.

Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning in warm-season thunderstorms in the Central Great Plains

In July 2005, a field campaign was conducted in the Central Great Plains to obtain 60-field/s video imagery of lightning in correlation with reports from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and broadband electric field waveforms from the Los Alamos Sferic Array (LASA). A total of 342 GPS time-stamped cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes were recorded in 17 different sessions, and 311 (91%) of these were correlated with reports from the NLDN. Only 6 of the 17 recording sessions were dominated by flashes that lowered negative charge to ground, and 11 were dominated by positive CG flashes. A total of 103 flashes recorded on video were correlated with at least one NLDN report of negative CG strokes, 204 video flashes were correlated with one or two positive stroke reports, and 4 had bipolar reports. In this paper, we will give distributions of the estimated peak current, I p, as reported by the NLDN, of negative and positive first strokes that were recorded on video, the multiplicity of strokes that were recorded on video, and the number of ground contacts per flash that were resolved on video. 41 (40%) of the negative flashes produced just a single-stroke on video, and 62 (60%) showed two or more strokes. The observed multiplicity of negative flashes averaged 2.83, which becomes about 3.14 after correcting for the finite time-resolution of the video camera. 195 (96%) of the positive flashes produced just a single-stroke on video, and 9 (4%) showed two strokes; therefore, the observed multiplicity of positive flashes averaged 1.04. Five out of 9 (56%) of the positive subsequent strokes re-illuminated a previous channel, and 4 out of 9 (44%) created a new ground contact. Simultaneous video, LASA, and NLDN measurements also allowed us to examine the classification of NLDN reports during 3 single-cell storms (one negative and two positive). Based on the LASA waveforms, a total of 204 out of 376 (54%) NLDN reports of CG strokes were determined to be for cloud pulses. The misclassified negative reports had | I p| values ranging from 3.8 kA to 29.7 kA, but only 58 (24%) of these had | I p| > 10 kA, and only one misclassified positive report had I p > 20 kA. Radar analyses showed that most of the negative and positive CG strokes that were recorded on video were produced within or near the convective cores of storms. The radar imagery also showed that single-cell storms tended to produce one polarity of CG flashes at a time, and that such storms could switch rapidly from negative to positive CG flashes when the reflectivity was near maximum. Multiple-cell storms produced both negative and positive flashes over a broad region, but each polarity tended to cluster near regions of high-reflectivity.

The effect of lightning NO<sub>x</sub> production on surface ozone in the continental United States

Abstract. Lightning NOx emissions calculated using the US National Lightning Detection Network data were found to account for 30% of the total NOx emissions for July–August 2004, a period chosen both for having higher lightning NOx production and high ozone levels, thus maximizing the likelihood that such emissions could impact peak ozone levels. Including such emissions led to modest, but sometimes significant increases in simulated surface ozone when using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). Three model simulations were performed, two with the addition of lightning NOx emissions, and one without. Domain-wide daily maximum 8-h ozone changes due to lightning NOx were less than 2 ppbv in 71% of the cases with a maximum of 10 ppbv; whereas the difference in 1-h ozone was less than 2 ppbv in 77% of the cases with a maximum of 6 ppbv. Daily maximum 1-h and 8-h ozone for grids containing O3 monitoring stations changed slightly, with more than 43% of the cases differing less than 2 ppbv. The greatest differences were 42 ppbv for both 1-h and 8-h O3, though these tended to be on days of lower ozone. Lightning impacts on the season-wide maximum 1-h and 8-h averaged ozone decreased starting from the 1st to 4th highest values (an average of 4th highest, 8-h values is used for attainment demonstration in the US). Background ozone values from the y-intercept of O3 versus NOz curve were 42.2 and 43.9 ppbv for simulations without and with lightning emissions, respectively. Results from both simulations with lightning NOx suggest that while North American lightning production of NOx can lead to significant local impacts on a few occasions, they will have a relatively small impact on typical maximum levels and determination of Policy Relevant Background levels.

Concurrent Cloud-to-Ground Lightning and Precipitation Enhancement in the Atlanta, Georgia (United States), Urban Region

AbstractThis study explores how the Atlanta, Georgia (United States), urban region influences warm-season (May through September) cloud-to-ground lightning flashes and precipitation. Eight years (1995–2003) of flashes from the National Lightning Detection Network and mean accumulated precipitation from the North American Regional Reanalysis model were mapped under seven different wind speed and direction combinations derived from cluster analysis. Overlays of these data affirmed a consistent coupling of lightning and precipitation enhancement around Atlanta. Maxima in precipitation and lightning shifted in response to changes in wind direction. Differences in the patterns of flash metrics (flash counts versus thunderstorm counts), the absence of any strong urban signal in the flashes of individual thunderstorms, and the scales over which flashes and precipitation enhancement developed are discussed in light of their support for land-cover- and aerosol-based mechanisms of urban weather modification. This study verifies Atlanta’s propensity to conjointly enhance cloud-to-ground lightning and precipitation production in the absence of strong synoptic forcing. However, because of variability in aerosol characteristics and the dynamics of land use change, it may be a simplification to assume that this observed enhancement will be persistent across all scales of analysis.

The Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity along the Gulf Coast. Part I: Lightning Climatology

Abstract Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes from the National Lightning Detection Network are analyzed to determine if the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle influences lighting activity along the Gulf Coast region. First, an updated climatology of lightning was developed for the region. Flash density maps are constructed from an 8-yr dataset (1995–2002) and compared with past lightning climatologies. Second, lightning variability is compared with the phases of ENSO. Winter lightning distributions are compared with one published study of ENSO and lightning days in the Southeast. Flash density patterns are, overall, consistent with past U.S. lightning climatology. However, the peak flash density for the annual mean was less than observed in previous climatologies, which could be due to the disproportionately large percentage of cool ENSO periods compared to previous lightning climatologies. The highest annual lightning counts were observed in 1997, which consisted of mostly warm ENSO seasons; the 1997–98 El Niño was one of the strongest on record. The lowest lightning counts were observed in 2000, which had mostly cool or neutral phases of ENSO including the lowest Niño-3.4 anomaly of the study period. Analysis of winter season lightning flash densities substantiated the role of the ENSO cycle in winter season lightning fluctuations. Winter lightning activity increased dramatically during the 1997–98 El Niño. The lowest winter flash densities are associated with cool ENSO phases. Although 8 yr is inadequate to establish a long-term pattern, results indicate that ENSO influences lightning and that further study is warranted. As more years of lightning data are acquired, a more complete climatology can be developed.

Characterization of warm season convective systems over US in terms of Cloud to Ground lightning, cloud kinematics, and precipitation

Convective systems are tracked for two summer months over the continental USA and their properties at different stages of life are investigated in terms of Cloud to Ground (CG) lightning flashes, cloud kinematics, and precipitation. The study employs lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) along with 1/2-hourly satellite Infrared observations, and hourly rainfall accumulation fields from the nationwide WSR-88D radar network. Results show strong dependence of the amount of CG lightning flashes with the stage of the storm's life cycle. The highest number of CG lightning flashes and highest area expansion rates are also seen to be during the growth stage of the systems. The stronger the lightning density, or cloud top area expansion rate, of the storms at their initiation stage is the longer is shown to be their life duration. The average rainfall yield per flash in the growing, mature and dissipation stages of storms with duration greater than 4 h is 4.7, 12.5 and 8.5 10 7 kg, respectively. The temporal evolution of the storms' area and CG flash rate are shown to correlate well with the evolution of rainfall parameters, such as storm's rainfall yield (m 3), conditional mean rainfall rate, and the fraction of rain area. The consideration of the kinematics and CG lightning flashes of convective systems and the knowledge of their life cycle stage demonstrate a potential for drawing information useful in rain rate retrievals and their variability.

A Perfect Prognosis Scheme for Forecasting Warm-Season Lightning over Florida

Abstract This study develops and evaluates a statistical scheme for forecasting warm-season lightning over Florida. Four warm seasons of analysis data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network are used in a perfect prognosis technique to develop a high-resolution, gridded forecast guidance product for warm-season cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning over Florida. The most important RUC-derived parameters are used to develop equations producing 3-hourly spatial probability forecasts for one or more CG flashes, as well as the probability of exceeding various flash count percentile thresholds. Binary logistic regression is used to develop the equations for one or more flashes, while a negative binomial model is used to predict the amount of lightning, conditional on one or more flashes occurring. The scheme is applied to output from three mesoscale models during an independent test period (the 2006 warm season). The evaluation is performed using output from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 13-km RUC (RUC13), the NCEP 12-km North American Mesoscale Model, and local high-resolution runs of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for a domain over south Florida. Forecasts from all three mesoscale models generally show positive skill through the 2100–2359 UTC period with respect to a model containing only climatology and persistence (L-CLIPER) and persistence alone. A forecast example using the high-resolution WRF Model is shown for 16–17 August 2006. Although the exact timing and placement of forecast lightning are not perfect, there generally is good agreement between the forecasts and their verification, with most of the observed lightning occurring within the higher forecast probability contours.

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Lightning Strikes in California in Relation to Large-Scale Weather Patterns

The temporal and spatial distribution of lightning strikes varies across California and has a differential effect on lightning fire ignitions. We analyzed 16 years of lightning strike data obtained from the National Lightning Detection Network to determine how the distribution of lightning strikes was affected by geography, topography, and large-scale weather patterns. Although there were significant differences in the number and density of strikes among bioregions, the annual, monthly, and hourly patterns were similar. The number of strikes increased with elevation. Strike polarity varied by month, and mean peak positive current, mean peak negative current, and number of return strokes per strike varied by bioregion. Weather patterns associated with lightning included strengthened high pressure cells stationed over the western United States that deploy moist monsoonlike air masses and promote rising motions, especially over mountain features. Understanding the variation in lightning strike distributions provides insight into the role of fire in different bioregions of the state and aids in the prediction of wildland fire occurrence.