National Life Expectancy Research Articles

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The Long-Term Benefits of Increased Aspirin Use by At-Risk Americans Aged 50 and Older.

BackgroundThe usefulness of aspirin to defend against cardiovascular disease in both primary and secondary settings is well recognized by the medical profession. Multiple studies also have found that daily aspirin significantly reduces cancer incidence and mortality. Despite these proven health benefits, aspirin use remains low among populations targeted by cardiovascular prevention guidelines. This article seeks to determine the long-term economic and population-health impact of broader use of aspirin by older Americans at higher risk for cardiovascular disease.Methods and FindingsWe employ the Future Elderly Model, a dynamic microsimulation that follows Americans aged 50 and older, to project their lifetime health and spending under the status quo and in various scenarios of expanded aspirin use. The model is based primarily on data from the Health and Retirement Study, a large, representative, national survey that has been ongoing for more than two decades. Outcomes are chosen to provide a broad perspective of the individual and societal impacts of the interventions and include: heart disease, stroke, cancer, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and medical costs. Eligibility for increased aspirin use in simulations is based on the 2011–2012 questionnaire on preventive aspirin use of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. These data reveal a large unmet need for daily aspirin, with over 40% of men and 10% of women aged 50 to 79 presenting high cardiovascular risk but not taking aspirin. We estimate that increased use by high-risk older Americans would improve national life expectancy at age 50 by 0.28 years (95% CI 0.08–0.50) and would add 900,000 people (95% CI 300,000–1,400,000) to the American population by 2036. After valuing the quality-adjusted life-years appropriately, Americans could expect $692 billion (95% CI 345–975) in net health benefits over that period.ConclusionsExpanded use of aspirin by older Americans with elevated risk of cardiovascular disease could generate substantial population health benefits over the next twenty years and do so very cost-effectively.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Socioeconomic development and secular trend in height in China

The objective of this study was to examine the effect of socioeconomic development on secular trend in height among children and adolescents in China. Body height and spermarcheal/menarcheal ages were obtained from two periodic large-scale national representative surveys in China between 1975 and 2010. Chinese socioeconomic development indicators were obtained from the United Nations world population prospects. The effects of plausible determinants were assessed by partial least-squares regression. The average height of children and adolescents improved in tandem with socioeconomic development, without any tendency to plateau. The increment of height trend presented larger around puberty than earlier or later ages. The partial least-squares regressions with gross national income, life expectancy and spermarcheal/menarcheal age accounted for increment of height trend from 88.3% to 98.3% for males and from 82.9% to 97.3% for females in adolescence. Further, through the analysis of the variable importance for projection, the contributions of gross national income and life expectancy on height increment were confirmed to be significant in childhood and adolescence, and the contribution of spermarcheal/menarcheal age was superior to both of them in adolescence. We concluded that positive secular trend in height in China was significantly associated with socioeconomic status (GNI as indicator) and medical and health conditions (life expectancy as indicator). Earlier onset of spermarche and menarche proved to be an important role in larger increment of the trend over time of height at puberty for a population.

The future of life expectancy and life expectancy inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting

SummaryBackgroundTo plan for pensions and health and social services, future mortality and life expectancy need to be forecast. Consistent forecasts for all subnational units within a country are very rare. Our aim was to forecast mortality and life expectancy for England and Wales' districts.MethodsWe developed Bayesian spatiotemporal models for forecasting of age-specific mortality and life expectancy at a local, small-area level. The models included components that accounted for mortality in relation to age, birth cohort, time, and space. We used geocoded mortality and population data between 1981 and 2012 from the Office for National Statistics together with the model with the smallest error to forecast age-specific death rates and life expectancy to 2030 for 375 of England and Wales' 376 districts. We measured model performance by withholding recent data and comparing forecasts with this withheld data.FindingsLife expectancy at birth in England and Wales was 79·5 years (95% credible interval 79·5–79·6) for men and 83·3 years (83·3–83·4) for women in 2012. District life expectancies ranged between 75·2 years (74·9–75·6) and 83·4 years (82·1–84·8) for men and between 80·2 years (79·8–80·5) and 87·3 years (86·0–88·8) for women. Between 1981 and 2012, life expectancy increased by 8·2 years for men and 6·0 years for women, closing the female–male gap from 6·0 to 3·8 years. National life expectancy in 2030 is expected to reach 85·7 (84·2–87·4) years for men and 87·6 (86·7–88·9) years for women, further reducing the female advantage to 1·9 years. Life expectancy will reach or surpass 81·4 years for men and reach or surpass 84·5 years for women in every district by 2030. Longevity inequality across districts, measured as the difference between the 1st and 99th percentiles of district life expectancies, has risen since 1981, and is forecast to rise steadily to 8·3 years (6·8–9·7) for men and 8·3 years (7·1–9·4) for women by 2030.InterpretationPresent forecasts underestimate the expected rise in life expectancy, especially for men, and hence the need to provide improved health and social services and pensions for elderly people in England and Wales. Health and social policies are needed to curb widening life expectancy inequalities, help deprived districts catch up in longevity gains, and avoid a so-called grand divergence in health and longevity.FundingUK Medical Research Council and Public Health England.

Correlation Analysis of the Components of the Human Development Index Across Countries

In the article, a theory of human development based on reports (Research) of United Nations Development Program is described. Model of human development, which was obtained by means of correlation analysis of a number of quantitative indicators of human development across countries, is considered. The main components of the model are the human development index, the index of innovation, ICT index, Gross national income and life expectancy indexes.

National intelligence, basic human needs, and their effect on economic growth

Self-actualization theory suggests that all individuals hold potential, and they can focus their motivations on actualizing this potential only if all basic and psychological needs are satisfied. Contemporary economic literature has reported that national average intelligence (IQ) is the most robust measure of human capital in raising economic productivity across countries. Treating national IQ as an intrinsic potential of society, our study examined the role of basic and psychological needs (i.e., life expectancy, life satisfaction, and political stability) in moderating the impact of national IQ on economic growth among 118 countries from 1970 to 2010. Hierarchical multiple regression indicates that the independent effects of national IQ, life expectancy, political stability, and life satisfaction on economic growth rate were significantly positive. Furthermore, life satisfaction was significantly negative in moderating the effect of national IQ on growth, while the other two factors were non-significant moderators. Therefore, we suggest that increased life satisfaction reduces desire for better performance, thereby diminishing the effect of IQ on economic growth. This finding is in accordance with the predictions of Maslow's hierarchy of needs.

How did national life expectation related to school years in developing countries—An approach using panel data mining

BackgroundThe purpose of the study was to probe into the changes in life expectancy associated with schooling years found by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). MethodsThe study was based on the OECD database from the period 2000 to 2006. The data of thirty countries were constructed to allow comparisons over time and across these countries. Panel data analysis was used to estimate the relationship of national education, as defined as school years, with life expectancy. The control factors considered were numbers of practicing physicians, practicing nurses, hospital beds, and GDP. ResultsWe used fixed effects of both country and time through linear regression, the coefficient of school years in relation to life expectancy was statistically significant but negative. This finding is not in accord with the hypothesis that investing in human capital through education stimulates better health outcomes. ConclusionWithin developing countries, educational attainment is no longer keeping the same pace with life expectancy as before. Therefore, we suggest that an effective education policy should cover diverse topics, for example, balancing economic growth and mental hygiene, to improve national life expectancy.

Life expectancy and national income in Europe, 1900-2008: an update of Preston’s analysis

In the past, upward shifts of the so-called Preston curve, which relates life expectancy to national income, have contributed importantly to worldwide increases in life expectancy. These shifts were due to rapid diffusion of knowledge and technology for infectious disease control from high-income to low-income countries. We assessed to what extent life expectancy growth in Europe has been accompanied by upward shifts in the relation between national income and life expectancy in later parts of the 20th century, when progress in cardiovascular disease control was the main driver of life expectancy growth. Data on national income (gross domestic product per capita, in 1990 international dollars), life expectancy and cause-specific mortality covering the period 1900-2008 were extracted from international data banks. (Change in) life expectancy and age-standardized mortality was regressed on (change in) national income, and the regression parameters were used to estimate the contribution to rising life expectancy and declining mortality in Europe as a whole of changes in national income vs shifts in the relation between national income and health outcomes. Large upward shifts in the relation between national income and life expectancy only occurred before 1960, and were due to rapid declines in mortality from infectious diseases which were independent of rises in national income. These shifts account for between two-thirds and four-fifths of the increase in life expectancy in Europe as a whole during this period. After 1960, upward shifts in the relation between national income and life expectancy were much smaller, and contributed only between one-quarter and one-half to the increase in life expectancy in Europe as a whole. During the latter period, declines in mortality from cardiovascular disease were mainly attributable to increases in national income. In contrast to earlier periods, recent life expectancy growth in European countries appears to have been dependent on their economic growth. More rapid diffusion of knowledge and technology for cardiovascular disease control from higher- to lower-income countries in Europe may be needed to close the East-West life expectancy gap, but it is unlikely that this can be achieved in the absence of more equal economic conditions.

Worker health is good for the economy: Union density and psychosocial safety climate as determinants of country differences in worker health and productivity in 31 European countries

Work stress is recognized globally as a social determinant of worker health. Therefore we explored whether work stress related factors explained national differences in health and productivity (gross domestic product (GDP)). We proposed a national worker health productivity model whereby macro market power factors (i.e. union density), influence national worker health and GDP via work psychosocial factors and income inequality. We combined five different data sets canvasing 31 wealthy European countries. Aggregated worker self-reported health accounted for 13 per cent of the variance in national life expectancy and in national gross domestic product (GDP). The most important factors explaining worker self-reported health and GDP between nations were two levels of labor protection, macro-level (union density), and organizational-level (psychosocial safety climate, PSC, i.e. the extent of management concern for worker psychological health). The majority of countries with the highest levels of union density and PSC (i.e., workplace protections) were Social Democratic in nature (i.e., Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway). Results support a type of society explanation that social and economic factors (e.g., welfare regimes, work related policies) in concert with political power agents at a national level explain in part national differences in workplace protection (PSC) that are important for worker health and productivity. Attention should be given across all countries, to national policies to improve worker health, by bolstering national and local democratic processes and representation to address and implement policies for psychosocial risk factors for work stress, bullying and violence. Results suggest worker health is good for the economy, and should be considered in national health and productivity accounting. Eroding unionism may not be good for worker health or the economy either.

Real age-adjusted life expectancy

This study summarises the development of a model to determine an individual’s adjusted life expectancy based on his Real Age. The model incorporates aspects such as gender, residing province, income, HIV status, ethnic background, weight, exercise, family illness history, stress, substance abuse and diet. Predicting life expectancy is vital in retirement planning for two reasons: 1) given the diverse nature of South Africa, the national average life expectancy cannot be applied to everyone; and 2) retirement duration forms a vital part in the retirement planning process. Retirees can make more informed financial investment decisions based on their Real Age, thus increasing the probability of having sufficient funds during retirement. Three representative examples of South African Real Age-adjusted life expectancies were simulated, predicting life expectancies of 67, 72 and 87 years, notably different from the 50 year average South African life expectancy.

Threat and Right‐Wing Attitudes: A Cross‐National Approach

Threat relates to right‐wing ideological attitudes at the individual level. The present study aims to extend this relationship to the national level. More specifically, in a sample of 91 nations, we collected country‐level indicators of threat (including inflation, unemployment, gross national product, homicide rate, and life expectancy). Moreover, we analyzed data from the European and World Value Survey (total N = 134,516) to obtain aggregated country‐level indicators for social‐cultural and economic‐hierarchical right‐wing attitudes for each of these countries. In accordance with previous findings based on the individual level, a positive relationship between threat indicators and right‐wing attitudes emerged. This relationship was stronger than what was usually reported at the individual level. In the discussion, we focus on the mutually reinforcing influence at the individual and national levels in terms of right‐wing attitudes.

Convergence and divergence of life expectancy in Europe: a centennial view

It has been noted that national life expectancies have diverged in Europe in recent decades, but it is unknown how these recent trends compare to longer term developments. Data on life expectancy, cause-specific mortality and determinants of mortality were extracted from harmonized international data-bases. Variation was quantified with the inter-quartile range, and the contribution of changing economic conditions was analyzed by comparing observed life expectancy variations with those expected on the basis of changes in levels of national income and/or changes in the relation between national income and life expectancy. During the first decades of the 20th century, variation in life expectancy in Europe increased to reach peak values around 1920, then decreased to reach its lowest values in 1960 (among men) and 1970 (among women), and finally increased strongly again. The first widening was due to less rapid decline in mortality in Southern and Central and Eastern Europe, particularly from infectious diseases, and coincided with an increasing strength of the national income-life expectancy relation. The second widening was due to stagnating or increasing mortality in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly from cardiovascular diseases, and coincided with a very strong rise of between-country differences in national income. Despite some similarities, differences between both episodes of widening differences in life expectancy cast doubt on the idea that the current episode of widening represents a simple delay of epidemiological transitions. Instead, it is an alarming phenomenon that should be a main focus of European policy making.

The Relationship Between Economic Status and Mortality of South Koreans, as It Relates to Average Life Expectancy

This study investigates the relationship between economic status and mortality of Korean men and women who were under and over the average national life expectancy using Cox's proportional hazard model to adjust for health status, past medical history, and age. The study subjects come from local applicants of Korean National Health Insurance who had a health examination in 2005. They were enrolled into a follow-up investigation from 2005 to 2011. In individuals younger than the average life expectancy, the mortality of the lowest economic status was 2.48 times higher in men and 2.02 times higher in women than that in the highest economic status. Economic status-mortality association in males older than the average life expectancy was attenuated but not eliminated. However, there is no significant relationship between economic status and mortality for females above the average life expectancy.

Disease, War, Hunger, and Deprivation: A Cross-National Investigation of the Determinants of Life Expectancy in Less-Developed and Sub-Saharan African Nations

Researchers note a recent trend of increasing inequality in cross-national life expectancy rates, largely due to conditions in the poorest of nations. Threats to life expectancy in less-developed nations include poverty, warfare, intense hunger, and disease, particularly AIDS/HIV. This article utilizes structural equation models for a sample of less-developed nations and a subsample of Sub-Saharan African nations to test interrelationships among predictors. Findings indicate modernization to be the most robust predictor of life expectancy across less-developed nations and HIV to be the strongest determinant of life expectancy in Sub-Saharan African nations. Somewhat surprisingly, warfare and hunger do not have direct impacts on life expectancy among less-developed nations; however, important linkages among warfare, hunger, and disease are evidenced in the Sub-Saharan African sample, along with a notable positive influence of modernization on HIV rates. The findings demonstrate the significance of HIV on cross-national life expectancy scores and illuminate unique dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Estimating Indigenous life expectancy: pitfalls with consequences

The methods used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to estimate life expectancies of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in 2009 have been controversial and require critical and sensitive analysis. The introduction by ABS of the direct method for estimating Indigenous life expectancies, based on estimated deaths and populations, has been generally welcomed. But the way this method has been applied and, in particular, death estimates used by the ABS, warrant scrutiny. These estimates were based on a first ever linkage between Indigenous deaths and census records following the 2006 census. Census-based identification was used in place of identification in the death registrations, rather than as a supplementary data source. The various national, state and regional life expectancy estimates published may have been biased upwards by this process. Because the impact of the methodology varies across Australia, regional differentials reported appear substantial but are not soundly based. The questionable ABS results are highlighted and discussed. Analysis based on more comprehensive linkage of death records in New South Wales over 5 years suggests that the ABS methods have understated Indigenous deaths and so overstated life expectancy. The effect of an alternative ABS approach is also discussed. ABS estimates published in 2009 are not necessarily definitive and may well overestimate Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy and underestimate the life expectancy gap. Estimates should be based on accurate estimates of deaths and population. Consultation and a thorough review are essential before the next round of estimates following the findings of the 2011 population census. Closing the Gap commitments focus on eliminating the life expectancy gap between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and other Australians. Life expectancy estimates need to be based on methods and data that are well understood and broadly supported. The alternative is unproductive debate about statistics rather than the range of policies and resourcing issues needed to improve Indigenous health.

Assessing Cognitive Functioning in Older Patients: The Why, Who, What, and How

In the coming years, speech-language pathologists (SLPs) can expect the numbers of older patients on their caseloads to increase. Epidemiological data indicate that the elderly represent one of the fastest growing segments of the U.S. population as national life expectancy continues to increase (U.S. Census Bureau, 2011). Unfortunately, as people age, they become more vulnerable to medical conditions and diseases (e.g., hypertension, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease) that compromise the integrity of their brain structures and functioning (Alzheimer's Association, 2011; Roger et al., 2010). These conditions and diseases negatively affect our cognitive and communication abilities. In this article, I will focus on cognitive assessment, an important component of service provision to older patients. More specifically, I will review the rationale, issues, and procedures pertaining to evaluating attention, memory, and executive functioning abilities in older patients.

Status kesehatan oral dan asupan zat gizi berhubungan dengan status gizi lansia

Background: Central Bureau of Statistics data in 2006, showed that the average life expectancy of the population living in Yogyakarta (DIY) was 73 years, and 73.8 years for those living in Sleman. This was higher than the average national life expectancy of 68.5 years. National Health Survey in 2007 showed that the prevalence of oral and dental problems in DIY was 23.6%, while the pulp and periapical tissue diseases in the elderly in Sleman districts was approximately 1704 cases. Hence, it was classified as one of the 10 most prevalent diseases in Public Health Centre. In addition, there were 406 older adults who were underweight.Objectives: To investigate the relationship between oral health status, nutrient intake and nutritional status in older adults.Methods: This study is an observational study with cross sectional design. Subjects were 310 patients aged 60-74 years old in Sleman district. Data obtained by interview, examination of the oral health status, measurement of body weight and arm span. Data were analyzed with Chi-square test.Results: There was a significant association between oral health status and protein intake (RP=2.38; 95%CI:1.42-3.970). Energy, fat and carbohydrates intake were not associated with oral health status (p>0,05). Nutritional status was significantly associated with the intake of the energy (RP=2.98, 95%CI:1.58-5.58), protein (RP=2.44, 95%CI:1,05-5.67), fat (RP=3.68, 95%CI:1.93-7.03) and carbohydrates (RP=4.89, 95%CI:2.54-9.4). However, there were no relationship found between oral health and nutritional status (RP=1.79, 95%CI:0.94-3.43.)Conclusion: There was a significant association between oral health status and protein intake. The intake of nutrients (energy, protein, fat, and carbohydrate) was significantly associated with nutritional status. However, there was no significant relationship found between oral health and nutritional status in older adults.

An Approach to the Estimation of Chronic Air Pollution Effects Using Spatio-Temporal Information

There is substantial observational evidence that long-term exposure to particulate air pollution is associated with premature death in urban populations. Estimates of the magnitude of these effects derive largely from cross-sectional comparisons of adjusted mortality rates among cities with varying pollution levels. Such estimates are potentially confounded by other differences among the populations correlated with air pollution, for example, socioeconomic factors. An alternative approach is to study covariation of particulate matter and mortality across time within a city, as has been done in investigations of short-term exposures. In either event, observational studies like these are subject to confounding by unmeasured variables. Therefore the ability to detect such confounding and to derive estimates less affected by confounding are a high priority.In this article, we describe and apply a method of decomposing the exposure variable into components with variation at distinct temporal, spatial, and time by space scales, here focusing on the components involving time. Starting from a proportional hazard model, we derive a Poisson regression model and estimate two regression coefficients: the “global” coefficient that measures the association between national trends in pollution and mortality; and the “local” coefficient, derived from space by time variation, that measures the association between location-specific trends in pollution and mortality adjusted by the national trends. Absent unmeasured confounders and given valid model assumptions, the scale-specific coefficients should be similar; substantial differences in these coefficients constitute a basis for questioning the model.We derive a backfitting algorithm to fit our model to very large spatio-temporal datasets. We apply our methods to the Medicare Cohort Air Pollution Study (MCAPS), which includes individual-level information on time of death and age on a population of 18.2 million for the period 2000–2006.Results based on the global coefficient indicate a large increase in the national life expectancy for reductions in the yearly national average of PM2.5. However, this coefficient based on national trends in PM2.5 and mortality is likely to be confounded by other variables trending on the national level. Confounding of the local coefficient by unmeasured factors is less likely, although it cannot be ruled out. Based on the local coefficient alone, we are not able to demonstrate any change in life expectancy for a reduction in PM2.5. We use additional survey data available for a subset of the data to investigate sensitivity of results to the inclusion of additional covariates, but both coefficients remain largely unchanged.