National Epidemiological Data Research Articles

Impact of layered non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Yucatan, Mexico

BackgroundThe pandemic propagation of SARS-CoV-2 led to the adoption of a myriad of non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs, e.g., social distancing, mobility restrictions, gathering restrictions) in the Americas. Using national epidemiological data, here we report the impact of the layered adoption of multiple NPIs aimed at curving SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Yucatan State, Mexico. MethodsData from suspected and laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases during 2020 were analyzed by age groups and sex, clinical signs, and symptoms as well as outcome. The impact of NPIs was quantified using time-varying reproduction numbers (Rt) estimated as a time-series and by sectors of the city. FindingsA total of 69,602 suspected cases were reported, 39.3% were laboratory-confirmed. Men were hospitalized (60.2%), more severely ill (3% vs 1.9%) and more likely to die (62%) than women. Early in the outbreak, all sectors in Merida had Rt estimates above unity. Once all NPÍs were in place, Rt values were dramatically reduced below one, and in the last interval transmission estimates of Rt remained below one in all sectors. InterpretationIn the absence of a COVID-19 vaccination program, the combination and wide adherence of NPÍs led to a low and stable trend in SARS-CoV-2 transmission that did not overwhelm the health sector. Our study reflects that a controlled and planned ease of restrictions to balance health, social and economic recovery resulted in a single wave of transmission that prolonged at low and stable levels. FundingGVP received funding from Emory University via the MP3 Initiative.

Epidemiology, aetiology and treatment of skin and soft tissue infections: final report of a prospective multicentre national registry

Skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) represent a heterogenous group of pathological conditions involving the skin or the underlying subcutaneous tissues, fascia and muscle, characterised by a considerable variety of clinical presentations, severity and possible aetiological pathogens. Although previous analyses on restricted types of SSTIs and population have already been published, we conducted a large nationwide surveillance program on behalf of the Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical Diseases to assess the clinical and microbiological characteristics of the whole SSTI spectrum, from mild to severe life-threatening infections, in both inpatients and outpatients and their management. Twenty-nine Infectious Diseases (ID) Centres throughout Italy collected prospectively data concerning both the clinical and microbiological diagnosis of patients affected by SSTIs via an electronic case report form. We included in our database all cases managed by ID specialists participating to the study, independently from their severity or the setting of consultation. Here, we integrated previous preliminary results analysing and reporting data referring to a 3-year period (October 2016–October 2019). During this period, the study population included 478 adult patients with diagnosis of SSTI. The type of infection diagnosed, the aetiological agent involved and some notes on antimicrobial susceptibilities were collected and reported herein. We also analysed the most common co-morbidities, the type and duration of therapy executed, before and after ID intervention and the length of stay. The results of our study provide information to better understand the national epidemiologic data and the current clinical management of SSTIs in Italy.

Gender Differences in Psychiatric and Behavioral Health Burden Among Adults With Alcohol and Other Substance Use Disorders in the United States.

Studies report that women with opioid use disorder experience more comorbid psychiatric disorders and behavioral health burdens than men. We broadened the study of this phenomenon to alcohol use disorder (AUD) and other substance use disorders (SUDs) using national epidemiologic data. Data from the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions Wave-III identified 2491 women and 3317 men with DSM-5 AUD or SUDs, and 30,501 men and women without such disorders. Women and men with AUD and SUDs were compared to those without such disorders on 22 measures of DSM-5 psychiatric disorders and behavioral histories (eg, incarceration and suicide attempt). The interaction of female sex and AUD in relation to these measures was evaluated and we repeated analyses for SUDs. Separate analyses of female and male adults with and without AUD or SUDs showed AUD and SUDs in both sexes were strongly associated with psychiatric disorders and behavioral histories. In pooled analyses, the interaction of female sex and AUD showed women with AUD had significantly greater likelihood than men of: borderline personality disorder, pain; parental history of incarceration; traumatic events; incarceration; and lifetime homelessness (P < 0.05 for all), but not for psychiatric diagnoses. Interaction of female sex with SUDs showed women had increased likelihood of all personality disorders, traumatic events, and past incarceration ( P < 0.05 for all). Certain personality disorders and behavioral histories, but not psychiatric diagnoses, may play a distinct role in leading to SUDs among women when compared to men.

Association between growth of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and increased coughing rate in cold temperatures: surveillance in Hokkaido, Japan

ObjectiveAlthough the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in winter is thought to increase through viral droplets when coughing, current epidemiological data in this regard are limited.SettingUsing the national epidemiological surveillance data in...

Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Vulva: A Survival and Epidemiologic Study with Focus on Surgery and Radiotherapy.

Vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is the most frequent vulvar neoplasia. While the primary role of surgery is widely accepted, large population studies are needed to compare survival between diverse treatment modalities and to identify independent prognostic factors to help council patients and guide oncological treatment. The U.S. National Cancer Index, Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program data between 2000 and 2018 was screened for all squamous cell carcinoma affecting the vulva. Raw data was processed with IBM SPSS. Demographic, clinical-pathological and treatment data were studied. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method and subgroups were compared using the log rank test. A multivariate cox regression was conducted to identify independent prognostic factors. A total of 11,360 patients were identified with a median age of 65. Median overall survival was 101 months. Surgery as a primary treatment is the therapeutic sequence associated with the best overall survival. Multivariate cox-regression did not meet proportional hazard assumption. Age, pathological grade, stage at diagnosis, treatment sequence and the use of chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factor. Surgery alone is the treatment sequence offering the best overall survival. Surgery should be offered to all eligible patients.

Development and evaluation of short form of constitution in Chinese medicine questionnaire: a national epidemiological survey data of 21 948 case.

To develop the best short form of constitution in Chinese medicine questionnaire (CCMQ) and evaluate its psychometric properties in Chinese population. A total of 21 948 subjects were used to refine the short form. Correlation coefficient, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and Cronbach's alpha coefficient were used to analyze and select items to form the short form. Separate sample of 205 subjects were collected to further evaluate the short from. EFA, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), item-scale correlation, discriminant validity, internal consistency reliability and split-half reliability were carried out to evaluate the short form. The short form CCMQ included 26 items. Seven common factors of characteristic root > 1 were extracted to explain 58.488% of the total variation. Result of CFA was consistent with the 9-factors structure. The mean differences of Blood-stasis body constitution and Qi-stagnation body constitution had statistical significance in body mass index differentiation. Cronbach's alpha coefficient of short form CCMQ was 0.863. The split-half reliability of total scale was 0.813, and each scale was 0.568-0.770. The item-scale correlations ranged from 0.620-0.849. The short form CCMQ consisted of 26 items with good psychometric properties. The short form should be recommended for the measurement of health of Chinese population in any clinical trial.

Proximal humerus fractures: epidemiology and trends in surgical management of hospital-admitted patients in Portugal.

BackgroundProximal humerus fractures (PHFs) are frequent and associated with significant health care burden. National epidemiological data are limited. Our objective is to characterize the Portuguese population admitted with PHFs and analyze therapeutic management, the impact of associated lesions, and mortality rate.MethodsThis was a retrospective, observational study of admissions from mainland public hospitals (2000-2015), with primary or secondary diagnosis of PHFs. Incomplete records, pathologic lesions, malunion/nonunion, and hardware removal were excluded. Age, gender, admission date, hospitalization period, associated injuries, treatment, and mortality were recorded.ResultsA total of 19,290 patients were included. Through the analyzed period, an increase in the absolute number and incidence of PHFs was observed. The mean age at diagnosis was 62.6 ± 21.0 years old (57% elderly; 63.5% female). The mean length of stay was 10.0 ± 14.1 days, higher in patients submitted to arthroplasty (P < .001) and in those with associated fractures (25%; P < .001). A total of 14,482 patients were operated, most frequently with open reduction and internal fixation (28%). The inpatient mortality rate was 3.2%, significantly higher in patients with associated fractures (odds 2.77 for lower limb vs. upper limb).ConclusionThere is a trend toward an increase in surgical management of PHFs. The relative proportion of open reduction and internal fixation and arthroplasty (particularly reverse arthroplasty) increased, probably reflecting biomechanical implant properties, fracture pattern, and demand for better functionality. Associated fractures are an important comorbidity, associated with increased mortality and length of stay.

Trends in Fontan pregnancies, mode of delivery, and risk for obstetrical complications

With improved therapies, an increasing number of patients with Fontan circulation reach reproductive age. Pregnant patients with Fontan circulation are at high risk for obstetric complications. Most data for Fontan pregnancies and associated complications stem from single center studies, with limited national epidemiologic data available.

Epidemiology of Moyamoya disease in China: A nationwide hospital-based study

SummaryBackgroundThe national epidemiologic data in mainland China is still absent for moyamoya disease (MMD).MethodsThis study was a nationwide hospital-based observational retrospective study to estimate epidemiological characteristics of MMD. The data was based on the Hospital Quality Monitoring System (HQMS), a national database which covers all tertiary hospitals in mainland China. This system consistently collects medical records including demographic characteristics, diagnoses, procedures, and expenses etc. for all inpatients. MMD was identified by ICD-10 code (I67·5) in HQMS.FindingsA total of 47,443 new-onset patients with total 69,680 hospitalization records from 1312 hospitals during 2016 to 2018 were included. The annual incidence rate was 1·14 per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI, 1·12–1·16) and approximately a 2-fold increase from 2016 to 2018. The incidence in children (0·18 per 100,000 inhabitants per year; 95% CI, 0·17–0·20) was significantly lower than that in adults (1·40 per 100,000; 95% CI, 1·38–1·42) (P<0·001) and the peak incidence was 45–54 years. The distribution model of incidence rate was presented as a clustered regional pattern (Moran's I = 0·155, P = 0·018, Z = 2·375) by global spatial correlation analysis.InterpretationOur study reported the annual incidence of MMD was 1·14 per 100,000 inhabitants in mainland China during 2016 to 2018, and it was increasing year by year. The geographical distribution of MMD incidence presented as a clustered regional pattern, which may provide new view for future study on the etiology for MMD.FundingNational Natural Science Foundation of China and “13th Five-Year Plan” National Science and Technology Supporting Plan.

Changing prevalence of overweight and obesity among Chinese children aged 6-15 from 2009-2019

Objective: To analyze the trends of overweight and obesity prevalence in Chinese children, aged from 6 to 15 years old among 4 provinces and cities from 2009 to 2019. Methods: Reviewed the national multi-center epidemiological survey data of children from the National Key Technology R&D Program of China during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2009 to 2010) and the National Key Research and Development Program of China during the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2017 to 2019). The participants' data were selected from four provinces,municipalities and autonomous region,including Beijing, Tianjin (Northern region), Zhejiang (Eastern region), and Guangxi (Southern region). Totally 14 597 pairs of 6-15 year-old children were surveyed. According to the body mass index (BMI) and standard deviation score (SDS) of children among different genders, ages, and regions, t test or chi-square test was used to evaluate the changes in overweight and obesity over a 10-year span. Results: Totally 7 721 pairs of boys and 6 876 pairs of girls were collectted in this study, whose mean age was (10.7±2.5) years. In the past 10 years, the overall BMISDS were 0.39±1.24 and 0.36±1.31 and the overall obesity rate were 11.8% (n=1 773) anel 12.5% (n=1 813) of children in the 4 administrative regions did not have statistically significant differences (all P>0.05). However, the overall overweight rate rose from 17.1% (n=2 496) to 19.1% (n=2 781) (χ²=18.657, P<0.01), and the average annual growth rate was 0.20%. The BMISDS in the Eastern region increased from 0.10±1.07 to 0.19±1.22 (t=-4.095, P<0.01), and the overweight rate and obesity rate increased by 3.8% (n=202) and 3.1% (n=169) respectively (both P<0.01); the BMISDS in the Northern region and the obesity rate did not have statistically significant differences(all P>0.05), but the overweight rate rose from 20.5% (n=1 233) to 22.8% (n=1 365) significantly (χ²=7.431, P<0.01); BMISDS in the Southern region was significantly decreased from 0.30±1.19 to 0.09±1.25 (t=1.426, P<0.01), and the rate of obesity decreased from 9.8% (n=315) to7.9% (n=256) (χ²=6.46, P<0.05), the overweight rate was not stafistically significant (P=0.10), respectively. The obesity rate of boys had risen from 16.4% (n=1 265) to 18.2% (1 407) (χ²=8.997, P<0.01) in the past 10 years, and the overweight rate had risen from 18.0% (n=1 393) to 20.5% (n=1 579) (χ²=14.26, P<0.01). The overweight+obesity rate rose from 34.4% (n=2 658) to 38.7% (n=2 986) (χ²=29.859, P<0.01), and the weight problem in the age group of 8 to 11 years was particularly severe (all P<0.01). The obesity rate of girls dropped from 6.8% (n=468) to 5.9% (n=406) (χ²=4.546, P<0.05), the overweight rate rose from 16.0% (n=1 103) to 17.5% (n=1 202) (χ²=5.006, P<0.05), and the overall overweight+obesity rate rose from 22.8% (n=1 571) to 23.4% (n=1 608) (χ²=0.53, P>0.05). Conclusions: The growth rate of obesity among children in China had slowed down from 2009 to 2019, but the overweight rate was still on the rise. The overall base of overweight and obesity population continued to expand. The weight problem of peri-adolescent boys was particularly prominent. The current status of obesity epidemics in different regions, ages, and genders are significantly different and had their own characteristics. It is necessary to establish a personalized prevention and control strategy.

Visual Impairment and Services Available in a UK Setting

This article aims to introduce visual impairment in a medical context to a target audience of medical students and junior doctors. The paper aims to depict what visual impairment is, present both global and national epidemiological data, as well as showcase the potential implications visual impairment and blindness have on affected individuals.

Needs-led human resource planning for Sierra Leone in support of oral health

BackgroundIn Sierra Leone (SL), a low-income country in West Africa, dental care is very limited, largely private, and with services focused in the capital Freetown. There is no formal dental education. Ten dentists supported by a similar number of dental care professionals (DCPs) serve a population of over 7.5 million people. The objective of this research was to estimate needs-led requirements for dental care and human resources for oral health to inform capacity building, based on a national survey of oral health in SL.MethodsA dedicated operational research (OR) decision tool was constructed in Microsoft Excel to support this project. First, total treatment needs were estimated from our national epidemiological survey data for three key ages (6, 12 and 15 years), collected using the ‘International Caries Classification and Management System (ICCMS)’ tool. Second, oral health needs were extrapolated to whole population levels for each year-group, based on census demographic data. Third, full time equivalent (FTE) workforce capacity needs were estimated for mid-level providers in the form of Dental Therapists (DTs) and non-dental personnel based on current oral disease management approaches and clinical timings for treatment procedures. Fourth, informed by an expert panel, three oral disease management scenarios were explored for the national population: (1) Conventional care (CC): comprising oral health promotion (including prevention), restorations and tooth extraction; (2) Surgical and Preventive care (S5&6P and S6P): comprising oral health promotion (inc. prevention) and tooth extraction (D5 and D6 together, & at D6 level only); and (3) Prevention only (P): consisting of oral health promotion (inc. prevention). Fifth, the findings were extrapolated to the whole population based on demography, assuming similar levels of treatment need.ResultsTo meet the needs of a single year-group of childrens’ needs, an average of 163 DTs (range: 133–188) would be required to deliver Conventional care (CC); 39 DTs (range: 30–45) to deliver basic Surgical and Preventive care (S6P); 54 DTs for more extended Surgical and Preventive care (S5&6P) (range 38–68); and 27 DTs (range: 25–32) to deliver Prevention only (P). When scaled up to the total population, an estimated 6,147 DTs (range: 5,565–6,870) would be required to deliver Conventional care (CC); 1,413 DTs (range: 1255–1438 DTs) to deliver basic Surgical and Preventive care (S6P); 2,000 DTs (range 1590–2236) for more extended Surgical and Preventive care (S5&6P) (range 1590–2236); and 1,028 DTs to deliver Prevention only (P) (range: 1016–1046). Furthermore, if oral health promotion activities, including individualised prevention, could be delivered by non-dental personnel, then the remaining surgical care could be delivered by 385 DTs (range: 251–488) for the S6P scenario which was deemed as the minimum basic baseline service involving extracting all teeth with extensive caries into dentine. More realistically, 972 DTs (range: 586–1179) would be needed for the S5&6P scenario in which all teeth with distinctive and extensive caries into dentine are extracted.ConclusionThe study demonstrates the huge dental workforce needs required to deliver even minimal oral health care to the Sierra Leone population. The gap between the current workforce and the oral health needs of the population is stark and requires urgent action. The study also demonstrates the potential for contemporary epidemiological tools to predict dental treatment needs and inform workforce capacity building in a low-income country, exploring a range of solutions involving mid-level providers and non-dental personnel.

Dental Caries Clusters among Adolescents in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland in 2013: Implications for Proportionate Universalism

Management of dental caries in adolescents presents a population health challenge; thus, it is important to use national epidemiological data to inform policy and action to improve oral health and address inequalities. The aims of this research were to examine dental caries clusters among 15-year-olds, taking account of caries thresholds, and explore associated factors to inform public health action. Secondary analysis of the oral health data on 2,160 15-year-olds from the 2013 Children’s Dental Health Survey in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland was performed. Hierarchical cluster analysis of dental caries experience was conducted across all surfaces and at 4 decay diagnostic thresholds (clinical: International Caries Detection and Assessment System [ICDAS] 1–6, cavitated: ICDAS 3–6, obvious: ICDAS 4–6, and extensive obvious: ICDAS 5–6 decay). Ordered logistic regression was used to estimate the association of behavioural and psychosocial factors with the clusters generated in relation to both clinical and obvious decay experience which are of clinical and epidemiological relevance. A 4-cluster decay pattern representing “low” to “extremely high” decay experience was observed under each of the dental caries diagnostic criteria. For clinical decay, which includes visual enamel caries, 28.70% had low, 39.77% medium, 26.71% high, and 4.81% extremely high caries status. In the adjusted model, significant risk factors for clinical decay included non-modifiable (sex, region, school type, and area deprivation) and modifiable (higher sugar intake at 4 or more times per day and suboptimal dental attendance) factors. This study suggests 4 distinct dental caries patterns among adolescent children nationally. Dental caries clusters demonstrate the importance of embracing proportionate universalism in addressing dental caries in the population oral health strategy.

Tick-Borne Surveillance Patterns in Perceived Non-Endemic Geographic Areas: Human Tick Encounters and Disease Outcomes.

Recent scholarship supports the use of tick bite encounters as a proxy for human disease risk. Extending entomological monitoring, this study was designed to provide geographically salient information on self-reported tick bite encounters by survey respondents who concomitantly reported a Lyme disease (LD) diagnosis in a state perceived as non-endemic to tick-borne illness. Focusing on Texas, a mixed-methods approach was used to compare data on tick bite encounters from self-reported LD patients with county-level confirmed cases of LD from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as well as serological canine reports. A greater proportion of respondents reported not recalling a tick bite in the study population, but a binomial test indicated that this difference was not statistically significant. A secondary analysis compared neighboring county-level data and ecological regions. Using multi-layer thematic mapping, our findings indicated that tick bite reports accurately overlapped with the geographic patterns of those patients previously known to be CDC-positive for serological LD and with canine-positive tests for Borrelia burgdorferi, anaplasmosis, and ehrlichiosis, as well as within neighboring counties and ecological regions. LD patient-reported tick bite encounters, corrected for population density, also accurately aligned with official CDC county hot-spots. Given the large number of counties in Texas, these findings are notable. Overall, the study demonstrates that direct, clinically diagnosed patient reports with county-level tick bite encounter data offer important public health surveillance measures, particularly as it pertains to difficult-to-diagnose diseases where testing protocols may not be well established. Further integration of geo-ecological and socio-demographic factors with existing national epidemiological data, as well as increasingly accessible self-report methods such as online surveys, will contribute to the contextual information needed to organize and implement a coordinated public health response to LD.

Socioeconomic disparity in global vision loss burden due to diabetic retinopathy: an analysis on time trends from 1990 to 2017.

To describe the trends of socioeconomic disparity in global vision loss burden associated with diabetic retinopathy (DR) based on prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). In the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, we extracted global, regional, national, and World Bank categorical epidemiological data in vision impairment by time and age. We searched the Human development index (HDI) from the Human Development Report. Pearson correlation, linear regression, and Kruskal-Wallis test were conducted to analyze the correlation between YLD rates and HDI. We used the Gini coefficient and concentration index to evaluate the socioeconomic inequality trendency. The global and World Bank categorical prevalence and YLDs increased from 1990 to 2017, and rose with ageing. The age-standardized prevalence and YLD rates varied geographically and highest in the Eastern Mediterranean countries. Higher vision loss burden of DR was concentrated in countries with medium level of socioeconomic development, including lower/upper middle-income and medium/high-HDI countries. The Gini coefficient decreased from 0.572 in 1990 to 0.542 in 2017, showing the decreasing between-country inequality. The concentration index decreased from 0.153 in 2000 to 0.061 in 2017, showing the reducing socioeconomic-associated disparity. The vision loss burden of DR increased in the past few decades, with a notable declining socioeconomic disparity since 2000. Our results highlight the necessity to provide more services to reduce the vision loss burden.

MO549INSIDE ANEMIA OF CKD: MICROSIMULATION MODELLING OF THE IMPACT OF POLICY INTERVENTIONS ON ANAEMIA OF CKD IN CANADA

Abstract Background and Aims Anaemia is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with increased mortality, cardiovascular complications, reduced quality of life and increased use of healthcare resources. Based on robust epidemiological and clinical data, mathematical modelling is a useful approach for predicting the future burden of disease and the effects of different intervention scenarios, which is essential for health service planning. This analysis uses a microsimulation model, Inside ANEMIA of CKD, to project the impact of a hypothetical intervention scenario that reduces the prevalence of anaemia of CKD on related healthcare costs in Canada from 2020 to 2025. Method A virtual cohort representing the Canadian population was created within the Inside ANEMIA of CKD microsimulation model framework using national demographics and epidemiological data drawn from Statistics Canada and a provincial renal database. In the cohort, virtual individuals were ascribed an age- and sex-stratified CKD status (defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria levels, as per international guidelines) and anaemia status (defined as mild, moderate or severe based on haemoglobin level, as per WHO criteria) based on Canadian prevalence data. Key comorbidities (type 2 diabetes, heart failure and hypertension) were also assigned, reflecting Canada-specific population statistics. Costs related to the treatment of CKD were taken from the published literature, and are shown in Canadian dollars (C$). This modelling analysis evaluated the effects on healthcare costs of a hypothetical intervention scenario in which the prevalence of moderate and severe anaemia is reduced by 20% per year from 2020 to 2025 compared with no intervention (baseline). In each scenario (i.e. intervention or baseline), the modelling analysis estimated CKD-related healthcare costs for patients with moderate or severe anaemia of CKD. The modelling analysis did not adjust for the potential costs of the intervention. Results Preliminary results predict that, with the hypothetical intervention, there could be approximately 435,000 fewer patients with moderate or severe anaemia of CKD in Canada in 2025 compared with no intervention (approximately 497,000 versus 932,000). The intervention is projected to lead to a reduction of C$4.4 billion in annual direct healthcare costs in 2025 for patients with moderate or severe anaemia of CKD compared with no intervention (C$9.1 billion versus C$13.5 billion), assuming that all eligible patients are diagnosed and treated. Conclusion The Inside ANEMIA of CKD microsimulation model predicts that a hypothetical intervention which reduces the prevalence of moderate and severe anaemia of CKD would produce reductions in direct healthcare costs. This suggests that interventions effective at reducing the prevalence of anaemia of CKD would help to reduce the economic burden on healthcare services.

Estimated Public Health Impact of the Recombinant Zoster Vaccine.

ObjectiveTo investigate the potential public health impact of adult herpes zoster (HZ) vaccination with the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) in the United States in the first 15 years after launch.MethodsWe used a publicly available model accounting for national population characteristics and HZ epidemiological data, vaccine characteristics from clinical studies, and anticipated vaccine coverage with RZV after launch in 2018. Two scenarios were modeled: a scenario with RZV implemented with 65% coverage after 15 years and a scenario continuing with zoster vaccine live (ZVL) with coverage increasing 10% over the same period. We estimated the numbers vaccinated, and the clinical outcomes and health care use avoided yearly, from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2032. We varied RZV coverage and investigated the associated impact on HZ cases, complications, and health care resource use.ResultsWith RZV adoption, the numbers of individuals affected by HZ was predicted to progressively decline with an additional 4.6 million cumulative cases avoided if 65% vaccination with RZV was reached within 15 years. In the year 2032, it was predicted that an additional 1.3 million physicians’ visits and 14.4 thousand hospitalizations could be avoided, compared with continuing with ZVL alone. These numbers could be reached 2 to 5 years earlier with 15% higher RZV vaccination rates.ConclusionSubstantial personal and health care burden can be alleviated when vaccination with RZV is adopted. The predicted numbers of HZ cases, complications, physicians’ visits, and hospitalizations avoided, compared with continued ZVL vaccination, depends upon the RZV vaccination coverage achieved.

Patent ductus arteriosus treatment trends and associated morbidities in neonates

To evaluate national epidemiologic data on infants treated for patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in Korea and analyze outcomes associated with different PDA treatments. We retrospectively evaluated data on 12,336 patients diagnosed with PDA (International Classification of Diseases-10 code: Q250) between 2015 and 2018 from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment database. Among them, 1623 patients underwent surgical ligation (code: O1671). We used birth certificate data from Statistics Korea to estimate the prevalence, diagnosis, and treatment of PDA. The prevalence of infants with PDA was 81 infants per 10,000 live births and 45.2% in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants, which increased from 2015 to 2018. PDA ligation was performed in 2571 infants and 22% VLBW infants. Medical treatment was administered to 4202 infants, which decreased significantly, especially in VLBW infants (62% to 53%). The proportion of treatment was as follows: conservative treatment (53.1%), intravenous ibuprofen (24.4%), surgery (20.4%), and oral ibuprofen (10.7%); that among 4854 VLBW infants was as follows: intravenous ibuprofen (46.3%), conservative treatment (33.2%), surgery (22.2%), and oral ibuprofen (14.2%). Surgical treatment had a significantly higher risk (odds ratio 1.36) of mortality than conservative treatment. Surgical and/or medical treatments were associated with a higher risk of morbidity. Recently, increased use of conservative management of PDA has contributed to improved neonatal outcomes in VLBW infants. Select patients may still benefit from surgical ligation following careful consideration.

Vaccination as a solution of the issue of resistance S. pneumoniae

Relevance Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing acute global health issue. Uncontrolled combined use of antibiotics determines changes in the microbial agents' properties, leading to a decrease of susceptibility to antimicrobial substances and increasing the probability of severe invasive bacterial infections with limited possibilities to treat them. Vaccination against pneumococcal infection as well as improvement of the health care providers awareness can be considered as part of AMR management strategies. A number of epidemiological observations have been published indicating a change in antimicrobial resistance to Streptococcus pneumoniae following the implementation of the national infant immunization program against pneumococcal infection. Aim. To analyze the literature data on the pneumococcal vaccination contribution to the reduction of the number of pneumococcal diseases and the need for antibacterial therapy and to assess the burden of invasive pneumococcal diseases globally and in the Republic of Belarus (RB) and to identify gaps in the awareness of practicing physicians on pneumococcal infection immunoprophylaxis, its' effectiveness and impact on AMR. Conclusions. WHO considers and promote vaccination as an AMR containment measure. There are a lot of publications with the examples of countries with pneumococcal infection pediatric national immunization programs (NIP) and epidemiological data on changes in the S.pneumoniae sensitivity to antibacterial drugs after the start of the NIP. During the period of the mass PCV immunization and the subsequent drift of strains the sensitivity to antimicrobials may return. In Israel 88% and 93% reduction of otitis media cases caused by resistant to penicillin and macrolides vaccine types of S.pneumoniae after the phased introduction of PCV7 and PCV13 to the infant NIP, comparing to the period before vaccination introduction. A decrease in the frequency of bacteremia in combination with a sharp decrease in the proportion of penicillin-resistant pneumococcal isolates (from 50.9% to 5.3%) is also described. In France the proportion of S.pneumoniae strains with reduced susceptibility or resistance to penicillin declined from 47.1% to 39% after the start of PCV13 NIP; researchers also noted a decrease in antibiotic-resistant isolates of S.pneumoniae in children with otitis media: by 26, 31, 55, 29 and 57%, respectively, to penicillin, amoxicillin, cefotaxime, erythromycin and co-trimoxazole to in 2011. A study in Germany revealed a decrease in macrolide-resistant IPD strains after the start of PCV13 use of (in children 8.2%; in adults 8.8%) compared with the period after the introduction of PCV7 (17.3% and 13.0%) and especially in the cohort of children compared with the period before the use of PCV7 (24.8% and 13.3%). In Scotland, there was a decrease in the number of penicillin-resistant strains isolated from the blood of patients with IPD after the introduction of PCV13 into the NIP. The publication of the results of three parallel studies in Finland evaluated the effectiveness of PCV10 in reducing the number of IPD caused by vaccine-specific serotypes of PCV10 by 93%, 98% and 100%, respectively. At the same time, the effectiveness against «related» PCV10 serotypes was equal to 46%, 51% and 78%, respectively, and the estimated effectiveness against unrelated PCV10 serotypes was negative. Composition and resistance profile of the lower respiratory tract microflora isolated from sputum pneumococcal strains in children in 2016–2018, demonstrated up to 72.4% resistance to macrolides, 31.3% resistance to cefotaxime and 8.3% – to ceftriaxone. Spn serotypes structure in under 5 years of age children with meningitis was characterized by relatively high uniformity. Majority (92%) of multiresistant meningeal strains are covered by current PCVs. An anonymous questionnaire showed pediatricians' insufficient awareness about current approaches to pneumococcal infection prevention, underestimation of IPD risks and complications, and the impact of vaccination on reducing AMR. Additional education is required to increase the level of knowledge and understanding of the PCVs role in AMR reduction. PCV NIP introduction will provide additional opportunities to reduce AMR in the Republic of Belarus.

The Prevalence of Diabetic Microvascular Complications in China and the USA.

Diabetes can lead to development of devastating microvascular complications, such as nephropathy, retinopathy, and peripheral sensory and autonomic neuropathy. While China and the USA both face the threat of this major public health challenge, the literature is limited in describing similarities and differences in the prevalence, and risk factors for the development, of diabetic microvascular complications between these two countries. The current review discusses the following: (1) the most recent evidence on prevalence of diabetic microvascular complications in China and the USA (including downtrends of diabetes retinopathy and neuropathy in the USA); (2) differences in patient risk factors of these complications; (3) challenges and current knowledge gaps (such as lacking national epidemiological data of diabetic complications in China); and (4) potential future clinical and research opportunities (including needs in diabetes evaluation and management in remote areas and standardization of methods in evaluating diabetic complications across countries). Diabetic microvascular complications remain to be health threats in both China and the USA. Further investigations are needed for comprehensive understanding and effect prevention and management of these complications.