National Emission Reduction Targets Research Articles

Potential effects of future land-use change on regional carbon stocks in the UK

Abstract In order to explore the impact of land-use change on carbon (C) stocks in South West England, three scenarios were explored based on current UK national- and regional-scale policies and plans. The scenarios assessed were: (i) Rebuilding Biodiversity (RB), involving habitat restoration of 824,244 ha of strategic nature areas; (ii) Forest Strategy (FS), involving establishment of 16,000 ha of new woodlands; and (iii) Biomass Strategy (BS), involving conversion of 65,513 ha of arable land into bioenergy crops. It was assumed that each of these targets would be implemented by the year 2020, with carbon build-up times of 100, 100 and 30 years, respectively. Estimates of C-stock changes were produced by compiling vegetation and soil organic C-density data for 11 land-use types from a systematic literature review. Results indicated that FS would lead to the highest yearly potential carbon sequestration (up to 3.63 Mg C ha −1 yr −1 ). However, the total C-stocks would be the highest under RB (up to 20% increase), owing to the greater area of pastures and arable land being converted into broadleaved forest when compared to FS. BS would have the least effect on C (C-stock increase of up to 0.3% and up to 0.41 Mg C ha −1 yr −1 sequestered). The spatially explicit analytical approach adopted here provides an indication of which land-use changes would contribute most to C-sequestration within the South West region, and could contribute to achieving national emission reduction targets post-2012.

Better Together? The Implications of Linking Canada - US Greenhouse Gas Policies

The Canadian and American economies are inextricably intertwined through trade. As the two countries debate plans to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, policymakers in both countries must consider how emissions policies, such as an emissions trading system that sets economy-wide limits on GHG emissions and allows firms to trade GHG emissions permits for the right to pollute, might coexist. This paper analyzes the implications of linking elements of potential Canadian and American GHG emissions trading systems, including the scope of emissions covered by the systems, national emissions-reduction targets, emissions permit prices, and cross-border trade of emissions permits. This assessment indicates that linked allowance trade with the US would not necessarily be the best policy for Canada to pursue, as the US develops its own system. Instead, Canada should forge ahead with its own system, while minimizing the risk of getting too far out of step with the US on relative carbon prices. A policy of “go-it-alone” with similar carbon price expectations, and a targeted innovation agenda, seems to be a low-risk strategy for Canada as it develops its emissions policies.

Public engagement with carbon and climate change: To what extent is the public ‘carbon capable’?

The relevance of climate change for society seems indisputable: scientific evidence points to a significant human contribution in causing climate change, and impacts which will increasingly affect human welfare. In order to meet national and international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets, there is an urgent need to understand and enable societal engagement in mitigation. Yet recent research indicates that this involvement is currently limited: although awareness of climate change is widespread, understanding and behavioral engagement are far lower. Proposals for mitigative ‘personal carbon budgets’ imply a need for public understanding of the causes and consequences of carbon emissions, as well as the ability to reduce emissions. However, little has been done to consider the situated meanings of carbon and energy in everyday life and decisions. This paper builds on the concept of ‘carbon capability’, a term which captures the contextual meanings associated with carbon and individuals’ abilities and motivations to reduce emissions. We present empirical findings from a UK survey of public engagement with climate change and carbon capability, focusing on both individual and institutional dimensions. These findings highlight the diverse public understandings about ‘carbon’, encompassing technical, social, and moral discourses; and provide further evidence for the environmental value-action gap in relation to adoption of low-carbon lifestyles. Implications of these findings for promoting public engagement with climate change and carbon capability are discussed.

Meeting a national emission reduction target in an experimental setting

Climate change mitigation presents us with a social dilemma: while mitigation benefits everyone, individuals lack the incentive to alter their behaviour, since they can reap its benefits while failing to reduce their own emissions. Using a ‘public good’ experiment with a climate change framing, the scope for cooperation in meeting a national mitigation goal is examined: in particular, how different sectors with differing marginal abatement costs distribute the responsibility of reducing emissions between themselves. The experiment consists of four scenarios: (1) a counterfactual baseline scenario in which cooperation is voluntary although communication is prohibited, (2) a communication scenario in which communication is permitted, and finally, (3) and (4) two scenarios in which there is a carbon tax, where the tax reflects an electricity levy. The results suggest that relying on the voluntary cooperation of individuals will not be sufficient to meet the mitigation target; while communication significantly increases average contribution levels, it also polarizes the strategies of individual players between full cooperation and free-riding. While introducing a carbon tax crowds out contributions, in excess of a specified mitigation target, cooperation becomes near-universal, thus emphasizing the importance of choosing the correct tax level.

Strategic partitioning of emission allowances under the EU Emission Trading Scheme

The EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is breaking new ground in the experience with emission trading regimes across multiple jurisdictions. Since the EU ETS covers only some industries, it implies a hybrid emission control scheme where EU member states must apply complementary domestic emissions regulation for the non-trading sectors of their economies in order to comply with their national emission reduction targets. The EU ETS thus opens up for strategic partitioning of national emissions budgets by the member states between trading and non-trading sectors. In this paper we examine the potential effects of such strategic behavior on compliance cost and emissions prices. We show that concerns on efficiency losses from strategic partitioning are misplaced. In turn, our analysis implicitly indicates significant political economy forces behind EU climate policy, as both cost-effective and strategically motivated partitioning of national emission budgets are far off from the actual break-down between trading and non-trading sectors.

Implications for national emission reduction targets of halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

Implications for national emission reduction targets of halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050

Implications for national emission reduction targets of halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050

Aviation and climate change: can the airline industry continue to grow in a carbon-constrained economy?

The aviation industry has grown rapidly over the past 50 years. One of the downsides of this growth has been a substantial increase in aviation greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns about the growth trajectory of the industry and emissions have led to calls for measures to be introduced to restrict demand and prompt innovation. In response, the European Union has announced that both domestic and international flights will be included in its Emissions Trading Scheme from 2012. At the time of writing, no similar measures had been proposed in Australia. This article considers whether the unconstrained growth of the aviation industry in Australia is compatible with reducing the nation's greenhouse gas emissions to levels that are required to minimise the risk of dangerous climate change. To do this, the article projects Australia's aviation emissions (international and domestic) over the period 2005 to 2050 and compares the projections to likely national emission reduction targets in 2050. The results suggest that total aviation emissions could rise by more than 250 per cent over this period. With such rapid growth, aviation could account for over 30 per cent of Australia's entire emissions space by 2050 if there is a desire to reduce emissions by 60 per cent by the middle of this century.

Sinn und Unsinn der Anrechnung von Waldsenken im Kyoto-Protokoll (Essay) | Sense and nonsense of using forests as carbon sinks in the Kyoto Protocol (essay)

According to the Kyoto Protocol, biological carbon sinks can be used as a means of partially achieving national emission reduction targets. In this paper, I evaluate 1) the historical development of human impacts on the terrestrial carbon balance, 2) the resulting differences in baseline conditions in different parts of the world and for different nations, and 3) key aspects of the sustainability of accounting biological carbon sinks regarding the long-term development of the greenhouse effect. Humankind has been influencing the greenhouse gas balance of the Earth for much longer than the past 100 to 150 years in a regionally highly differentiated manner. Forests play an important role as C sinks in most temperate zone countries today, but their sink strength results mainly from historical over-exploitation and thus should be regarded as “compensation” rather than a generic achievement of humankind in general, or forest management in particular. Although accounting for biological C sinks for achieving national emission reduction targets appears positive at first sight, I conclude that this practice tends to obstruct problem solving, rather than fostering it. Considerations on the sustainability, ethics and efficiency and on the equitability of this accounting suggest that the two issues should be considered separately, without implying that forest protection would be of lesser importance, nor that biological C sinks would be of a marginal value.

Aviation and climate change: can the airline industry continue to grow in a carbon-constrained economy?

The aviation industry has grown rapidly over the past 50 years. One of the downsides of this growth has been a substantial increase in aviation greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns about the growth trajectory of the industry and emissions have led to calls for measures to be introduced to restrict demand and prompt innovation. In response, the European Union has announced that both domestic and international flights will be included in its Emissions Trading Scheme from 2012. At the time of writing, no similar measures had been proposed in Australia. This article considers whether the unconstrained growth of the aviation industry in Australia is compatible with reducing the nation's greenhouse gas emissions to levels that are required to minimise the risk of dangerous climate change. To do this, the article projects Australia's aviation emissions (international and domestic) over the period 2005 to 2050 and compares the projections to likely national emission reduction targets in 2050. The results suggest that total aviation emissions could rise by more than 250 per cent over this period. With such rapid growth, aviation could account for over 30 per cent of Australia's entire emissions space by 2050 if there is a desire to reduce emissions by 60 per cent by the middle of this century.

Climate Change--Statutory Duty or Pious Hope?

The UK Climate Change Bill is in the course of becoming law. The Bill covers a number of different aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation, including, amongst other things, establishing an advisory Committee on Climate Change, provisions relating to emissions trading and reporting duties in relation to climate change impacts and adaptation. The headline feature of the Bill, however, relates to national emissions reduction targets, and the obligation on Government to achieve these. During the consultation process doubts were expressed about whether the duty to achieve the Bill's emissions reduction targets was legally enforceable. The ad hoc Joint Committee of MPs and Peers (‘the Joint Committee’) said: ‘We have concerns regarding the legal enforceability of Clauses 1(1) and 2(1)(b), which impose a duty on the Secretary of State to ensure targets and budgets are met. We believe, therefore, that these provisions need to be altered or strengthened.’ The Government did not adopt the Joint Committee's recommendation, yet it insists that the duty is legally binding and that judicial review will be available in the case of failure to meet targets. 1 This analysis examines that proposition.

Monetary Valuation of Emissions in Implementing Environmental Policy

SummaryAt various levels of environmental policy making there is a demand to translate polluting emissions into monetary units. In the so‐called reduction cost approach, based upon policy targets, polluting emissions are expressed in monetary terms by determination of the marginal unit reduction cost at the emission target level. This approach provides shadow prices for emissions by which it can be established whether a certain measure or technology belongs to the most efficient set of measures by which the policy targets can be reached. This article argues that, if clear (generic) government targets such as national emission reduction targets exist for an emission, shadow prices derived by this method are to be preferred to shadow prices derived by other methods for decisions at the project (implementation) level. By application of the reduction cost approach, implementation decisions can be made that are both cost‐effective and consistent with government policy.

A method to improve the international comparability of emission data from industrial installations

Abstract Emissions from industrial installations are regulated under several international conventions and directives to prevent harmful impacts on environment and human health. Stricter limitations often exist in national legislations, or due to regional and local conditions, than in the international conventions. The international comparability of emission data from industrial installations is currently poor. Comparability is an essential element when the environmental performance of different installations or techniques is studied, as well as in reviewing data presented in emission registers. The availability of reliable and comparable data is an important requirement for the emissions trading market. Comparable emission data ought to be used when reviewing compliance with the national emission reduction targets established under international conventions, as well as in reviewing the compliance of industrial installations with the requirements set in the environmental permit conditions. There are currently no internationally agreed principles or a comprehensive strategy for production of emission data at the level of an industrial installation. The data production chain principle presented in this paper provides a tool for identifying elements that are essential in comparing emission data correctly and that need to be taken into consideration to ensure emission data reliability. The method was originally developed and applied in Finland for emission and impact monitoring of wastewaters from industrial installations and fisheries. Due to the implementation of the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) directive the methodology was reconstructed for integrated emissions monitoring purposes. The data production principle was introduced for European use when preparing the BREF document on monitoring of emissions. It will also be relevant when the industrial installations report their emissions data to the Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers (PRTRs).

A new inventory of ammonia emissions from Irish agriculture

Agriculture plays a vital role in the Irish economy, accounting for 3.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2000. Grassland farming and, in particular, cattle rearing and dairying accounts for more than 90% of farming activity. In addition, there have been significant increases in the number of sheep, pigs and poultry over the last twenty years. As a consequence, gaseous nitrogen (N) emissions have shown a clear upward trend. Following the adoption of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Gothenburg protocol (Protocol to the 1979 convention on long-range transboundary air pollution to abate acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone. United Nations Economic Commissions for Europe (UNECE), Geneva.), Ireland has to achieve a 9% reduction in national ammonia (NH 3) emissions between 1990 and 2010. The agricultural sector accounts for virtually all NH 3 emissions in Ireland. It is on this basis that a new inventory of NH 3 emissions from agriculture has been produced. This paper describes the adoption of the UK national inventory model to Irish agricultural systems, the results of model calculations and the measures available to enable compliance with national targets and areas within the inventory, which require further investigation. Estimated total emissions from Irish agriculture were 89.9 and 91.8 kt NH 3-N for 1991 and 2010, respectively. Cattle farming accounts for more than 75% of total emissions. The largest emission factors found included 46.9 g NH 3-N lu −1 d −1 for cattle housing, 29.5 g NH 3-N lu −1 d −1 for pig housing and 150 g NH 3-N lu −1 d −1 for housed broilers (lu being equivalent to 500 kg live weight). In addition, model predictions for the year 2010 showed that without any abatement strategies being implemented, NH 3 emissions would exceed the agreed national emission reduction target by 12%. It was also found that strategies for reducing emissions from the land spreading of manure offer the greatest potential to achieve target levels.