National Emission Ceilings Directive Research Articles

Assessing interim objectives for acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone of the EU National Emission Ceilings Directive with 2001 and 2012 knowledge

The National Emission Ceilings Directive regulating European Union (EU) Member State emissions of acidifying and eutrophying pollutants as well as ozone precursors was adopted in 2001. Its interim environmental objectives, to be achieved in 2010, consist of a reduction of the exceedance of critical loads for acidification and eutrophication and of critical levels of ground-level ozone relative to 1990. Objectives for acidification and ground-level ozone were to be met in every single receptor grid cell in the European Union. For eutrophication, however, the target was to be met only for the EU area as a whole. Since 2001, reported emissions for 1990 and 2010 as well as knowledge and methodologies and for computing atmospheric dispersion and critical loads and levels have changed. In this paper, it is shown that acidification and eutrophication objectives are largely met when assessing them with the knowledge of 2001. However, with 2012 knowledge the interim objectives for acidification and eutrophication are not met in most of the EU. The objectives for ground-level ozone are met in most EU Member States with both 2001 and present (2012) knowledge, with the exception of the objective for forests, which was still not met in most Member States in 2010. Therefore, it seems prudent that science is employed also in the implementation phase of policy agreements.

Environmental Reviews and Case Studies: Flexibility in the European Legal Framework on Air Quality

This article discusses the room for national maneuver (flexibility) in the implementation of two important European directives aimed at the improvement of air quality: the Ambient Air Quality Directive and the National Emission Ceilings Directive. Concrete examples of flexibility are time extensions for deadlines, the possibility for lowering standards, or the freedom to decide in which manner certain objectives like those for environmental quality are set. This flexibility is an important factor for the actual impact that these legal obligations could have on air quality. Evaluated is whether these directives are, considering the flexibility, actually capable of contributing to the environmental protection they seek to provide. The overall conclusion is that both directives set an inflexible environmental target and that a European level of ambition is being established.Environmental Practice 15:62–71 (2013)

Effect of CO2 capture on the emissions of air pollutants from industrial processes

This study assesses whether the deployment of CO2 capture technologies in the European industrial sector would result in significant changes in the emissions of air pollutants (NOx, SO2, PM, and NH3) in the short term. The industrial sectors investigated were: cement, petroleum refineries, and iron and steel. The analysis included onsite emissions and changes associated with grid electricity consumption due to CO2 capture. Post-combustion capture using monoethanolamine (MEA) was considered for the cement sector and petroleum refineries, and Top Gas Recycling Blast Furnace (TGRBF) with vacuum-pressure swing adsorption (VPSA) for the iron and steel sector.The results show that when all three industrial sectors in the EU-27 are fully equipped with CO2 capture, industrial SO2 emissions in the EU-27 may decrease by 40–70% whereas NH3 emissions may increase by 120–520% (equivalent to 2–8% of total European emissions). The large increase in NH3 emissions is due to the degradation of MEA. Cement and petroleum refineries account for nearly all these changes. The results also show limited impact (within ±10% of EU-27 industrial emissions) on NOx and PM emissions. Emission changes due to electricity import/export are found to be equally important as onsite emission changes. For the iron and steel sector, the changes in National Emissions Ceilings Directive (NECD) emissions are found to be limited for the selected CO2 capture technique under conservative assumptions. However, the changes in the NECD emissions could vary largely depending on how the steel mill will adapt and operate their coke oven batteries that supply the coke to the blast furnace (BF).

Projected change in atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea towards 2020

Abstract. The ecological status of the Baltic Sea has for many years been affected by the high input of both waterborne and airborne nutrients. The focus here is on the airborne input of nitrogen (N) and the projected changes in this input, assuming the new National Emission Ceilings directive (NEC-II), currently under negotiation in the EU, is fulfilled towards the year 2020. With a set of scenario simulations, the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) has been used to estimate the development in nitrogen deposition based on present day meteorology combined with present day (2007) or future (2020) anthropogenic emissions. Applying a so-called tagging method in the DEHM model, the contribution from ship traffic and from each of the nine countries with coastlines to the Baltic Sea has been assessed. The annual deposition to the Baltic Sea is estimated to 203 k tonnes N for the present day scenario (2007) and 165 k tonnes N in the 2020 scenario, giving a projected reduction of 38 k tonnes N in the annual load in 2020. This equals a decline in nitrogen deposition of 19%. The results from 20 model runs using the tagging method show that of the total nitrogen deposition in 2007, 52% came from emissions within the bordering countries. By 2020, this is projected to decrease to 48%. For some countries the projected decrease in nitrogen deposition arising from the implementation of the NEC-II directive will contribute significantly to compliance with the reductions agreed on in the provisional reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. This underlines the importance of including projections like the current in future updates of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.

Trends in NOx and NO2 emissions from road traffic in Great Britain

In this paper we have compared detailed road traffic NOx emissions with the equivalent trends in ambient roadside NOx measurements. This was undertaken separately in Great Britain and London, for all of the major roads, and by road type and location. The emissions trends were created using different emissions factors, those used in UK emissions inventories (Base case), the Swiss-German handbook (HBEFA), and those created from recent remote sensing measurements in the UK (RSD). An alternative assumption for use of Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) in the articulated Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) fleet was also tested. For all scenarios traffic flows, speeds and vehicle age were kept constant. Comparison between the emissions scenarios in Great Britain showed that by 2009, NOx emissions estimates from road traffic could be as much as 25% greater than current UK estimates and 31% greater in London. The RSD emissions inventory gave the smallest downward trend in NOx emissions, from 2004 to 2009, of between 3 and 4%/year and this compared with a reduction of ∼6%/year from the Base Case and HBEFA scenarios. All scenarios compared poorly with roadside NOx measurement trends from UK sites, which typically reduce by between 1% and 2%/year. We have shown that the differences in NOx emissions trends were driven, partially at least, by the relative contribution from light duty diesel vehicles. An analysis from 2700 NOx measurement sites throughout Europe has shown that this problem is unlikely to be limited to the UK, and identifies a difficulty in meeting EU limit values for NO2, obligations under the National Emission Ceilings Directive (NECD, 2001) and the Gothenburg Protocol (UNECE, 1999) and for forecasting future changes in PM2.5.

A model to calculate consistent atmospheric emission projections and its application to Spain

Global warming and air quality are headline environmental issues of our time and policy must preempt negative international effects with forward-looking strategies. As part of the revision of the European National Emission Ceilings Directive, atmospheric emission projections for European Union countries are being calculated. These projections are useful to drive European air quality analyses and to support wide-scale decision-making. However, when evaluating specific policies and measures at sectoral level, a more detailed approach is needed. This paper presents an original methodology to evaluate emission projections. Emission projections are calculated for each emitting activity that has emissions under three scenarios: without measures (business as usual), with measures (baseline) and with additional measures (target). The methodology developed allows the estimation of highly disaggregated multi-pollutant, consistent emissions for a whole country or region. In order to assure consistency with past emissions included in atmospheric emission inventories and coherence among the individual activities, the consistent emission projection (CEP) model incorporates harmonization and integration criteria as well as quality assurance/quality check (QA/QC) procedures. This study includes a sensitivity analysis as a first approach to uncertainty evaluation. The aim of the model presented in this contribution is to support decision-making process through the assessment of future emission scenarios taking into account the effect of different detailed technical and non-technical measures and it may also constitute the basis for air quality modelling. The system is designed to produce the information and formats related to international reporting requirements and it allows performing a comparison of national results with lower resolution models such as RAINS/GAINS. The methodology has been successfully applied and tested to evaluate Spanish emission projections up to 2020 for 26 pollutants but the methodology could be adopted for any particular region for different purposes, especially for European countries.

Presentation of the influence of deposition uncertainties on acidity critical load exceedance across Wales

Critical loads and exceedances have been used as the basis for negotiation of the Gothenburg Protocol and the National Emissions Ceilings Directive to reduce emissions of sulphur and nitrogen across Europe. Since emissions have already been significantly reduced, the associated cost of further emission reductions is high. In order to define future abatement strategies, policy makers therefore need to understand uncertainties associated with critical load exceedances and interpret them accordingly. Deterministic methods of presenting critical load exceedance, which treat the critical load concept as a set criterion, are well established. Spatially explicit uncertainties in deposition estimates for Wales have recently become available and new ways of presenting information on critical load exceedance are now possible. We explore the utility of partial distributions and inverse cumulative distributions of exceedance data, probability of exceedance and cumulative distribution function by habitat, using Wales as a case study.

Issues in model validation: assessing the performance of a regional-scale acid deposition model using measured and modelled data

The development and validation of a new version of the Hull Acid Rain Model (HARM12.1) is described in the context of changes in emissions and deposition estimates supplied by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) Edinburgh based on the available measurement networks. Major changes to the model include greater vertical resolution, the adoption of new background concentrations and ecosystem-specific deposition velocities. HARM output for 1998–2000 is compared with data from the rural SO 2 , NO 2 and NH 3 networks and results from the nitric acid and aerosol network. The ability to reproduce deposition estimates based on measurements is key to a regional-scale model like HARM. Changes in these estimates between 1995–97 and 1998–2000 are discussed. Comparing HARM modelled deposition and the CEH data indicates that the new version of the model performs better in this respect than its predecessor (HARM11.5). The trend in deposition over the time period does not seem to reflect the marked reduction in emissions. The possible reasons for this are explored with particular emphasis on changes in precipitation. 1995–97 was unusually dry, while 1998–2000 was wet. Changes in rainfall concentration and unmodified deposition are presented for comparison with HARM and CEH estimates. It is clear that the impact of precipitation variability on modelled acid deposition requires further investigation. Finally, we compare HARM12.1 and HARM 11.5 deposition in 2010 following emissions reductions to meet the terms of the National Emissions Ceilings Directive.

General Policy Questions Need Specific Policy Effectiveness Indicators: An Example for Emission Reduction Targets

This paper describes the importance of different policy perspectives and contexts on the numerical values of policy effectiveness indicators, developed to inform the policy makers and the public on the progress of environmental policies towards the targets set. We concentrate on indicators for progress towards emission reduction targets for greenhouse gases (Kyoto) and air pollutants (EU National Emission Ceilings Directive) within the European Union. It is shown that both the policy perspective (monitoring, planning and strategy) and the context (individual EU Member State or the European Union as a whole) have a strong influence on the relative score of the Member States. Scientific and technical policy advisors should be aware of this when developing indicators to answer relatively simple policy questions. The choices they make on perspective and context have a strong influence on the answers they produce.

Implementing Stronger European Air Pollution Policies: Will High Hopes in Brussels and Geneva Be Dashed in London?

The recently adopted National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive within the European Union and the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol within the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) require a substantial further reduction of emissions. What are the chances for implementation success and what are the determining factors? The earlier central air pollution ‘laggard’ the UK is singled out for specific scrutiny, along with Germany and France. With regard to the UK, it does not seem reasonable to assume that the ‘high hopes’ in Geneva/CLRTAP and Brussels will be dashed in London. Despite a recent worrying increase in the use of coal, the UK as ‘the dirty man of Europe’ seems to be history. The prospects for German implementation are more uncertain, but it seems reasonable to assume that the Germans will do quite well, but be less impressive than in the past. France is even more of an uncertain card here, and its unimpressive NOx and VOC performance so far does not bode well. As these countries are central in both the EU and CLRTAP contexts, the implementation prospects for the new EU and CLRTAP commitments are overall quite promising, even though there are huge uncertainties to be clarified further.

Low-CO2 Energy Pathways versus Emission Control Policies in Acidification Reduction

Integrated assessment models were applied to analyze the side-benefits of structural changes in the energy systems of Finland and the EU to reduce acidity critical load exceedances in Finland. The acidification reduction potential of structural measures, induced by the need to restrict carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, was compared with international agreements limiting acidifying emissions. The impacts of the UN/ECE Gothenburg protocol and the European Commission’s proposal for a National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive were assessed together with domestic and bilateral policy scenarios. The study utilized point-source emission databases of Finland and the neighboring areas and a meso-scale deposition model together with the Europe-wide transfer matrices of the EMEP/MSC-W and European emission scenarios of IIASA. Further technical reduction measures in the adjacent large sulfur emission sources in Russia would reduce considerably deposition to nearby Finnish areas. Energy saving and shifts in the EU energy system towards less carbon-intensive fuels instead of further technical emission controls were found to have significant potential in limiting acidifying deposition. Implementation of the Kyoto protocol in the EU could reduce the Finnish areas at risk of acidification more than the Gothenburg protocol and the NEC Directive together.