National Election Campaign Research Articles

Do political elite endorsements influence online mobilization? A study of Twitter behavior in Narendra Modi’s 2019 election campaigns

ABSTRACT Modern campaigns increasingly rely on social media to influence voters, with Twitter offering affordances that enable direct communication between politicians and the public. However, scholars remain divided over the effectiveness of engaging ordinary Twitter users for mobilizing support online. This article seeks to address this issue by examining whether endorsements from political elites influence the tweeting behavior of ordinary users. Using a quasi-experimental design, we analyze an original dataset of tweets made by users who were mentioned (N = 27,634; 36.62 million tweets) and not mentioned (N = 27,672; 16.30 million tweets) by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 16th March 2019, during his national election campaign. Our analysis reveals that, on average, users mentioned by Modi exhibited a greater increase in tweet activity compared to those not mentioned. However, this surge in activity proved to be only temporary, suggesting that mentions by political elites facilitate immediate mobilization but are not necessarily self-sustaining. Furthermore, no evidence was found of a differential effect based on users’ pre-existing engagement levels. Our findings offer important insights into political leaders’ strategic use of Twitter in campaigns and contribute to the theoretical understanding of Twitter's role in mobilization and interactivity by bringing in diverse perspectives from the Global South.

Walking the line of the double bind: A cross-country comparison on women and men politicians’ self-presentations on social media

Abstract Political leaders play a crucial role in shaping societal perceptions and citizens’ expectations of gender roles. Through their self-presentation on social media, political leaders have the power to either reinforce or challenge existing gender stereotypes, thereby influencing how citizens perceive and interpret gender norms. However, research on how women and men politicians present themselves on social media is scarce. This comparative study contributes to remedying this research gap by content analysing the official Facebook and Instagram pages of 18 political leaders during the 2021 national election campaigns in Germany and Norway. In contrast to earlier research on gendered presentations of politicians in the news, we did not find strong evidence of gendered self-presentations in either country, neither in terms of personalisation nor in terms of gender issue ownership. This could be because gender roles in Germany and Norway have become more fluid, or because the successful politicians we have analysed have been successful due to their ability to “walk the double bind” of needing to conform to both masculine and feminine gender expectations. Our study calls for more comparative research into this field, including studies of lower profile politicians and politicians in countries with lower degrees of gender equality.

The Relationship Between Topics, Negativity, and User Engagement in Election Campaigns on Facebook

Negativity is a common feature of current online political communication during elections. Previous studies on negativity and its impact on user engagement focused mainly on Western European countries. Considering the political particularities of the Central and Eastern European countries, the present study focused on Czechia, Hungary, Lithuania, the Republic of Moldova, and Romania, where national election campaigns took place from 2020 to 2022. We aimed to investigate comparatively different topics prevalent in the negative messages and look at users’ engagement with negative communication. We applied manual content analysis of N = 4,095 Facebook posts published four weeks before the elections by political parties elected in the national parliament. Results showed significant differences across countries using negative messages and the associated topics. The posts’ highest rate of negative statements was identified in Czechia (52%), while the lowest was in Lithuania (17%). There are topics consistently associated with negative statements across most countries, such as corruption, economy and finance, foreign policy, labor, and social issues. However, given that those elections took place during the Covid-19 pandemic in Czechia, Lithuania, Romania, and the Republic of Moldova and, in Hungary, after Russia invaded Ukraine, we also identified contextual topics such as health, war, and conflicts with other countries and defense that were mainly associated with negative messages. Furthermore, negative posts generate more reactions and comments than posts containing no negative statements. Addressing foreign policy in negative posts generates significantly more reactions and comments.

Tapestries of Topics: Factors Affecting the Issue Diversity of Political Parties’ Social Media Campaigns

<p>For citizens to make well-informed decisions, they require information on diverse policy issues, which, among others, are publicized on political parties’ social media accounts. However, as strategic actors, parties carefully weigh which issues to highlight and which to play down, rather than addressing a full range of issues in their campaigns. We investigated the hitherto neglected question of which issue diversity parties prioritize on their social media accounts and which factors influence this choice. We conducted a standardized content analysis of the official Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter accounts of 10 Norwegian parties and their leaders during the 2021 national election campaign. The results of our analyses indicate that issue-related campaign strategies influence parties’ issue diversity more systematically than parties’ governing/opposition statuses and their choices of social media platforms.</p>

French political symbolism and identity construction

The present study examines how the language of political symbolism operates within the framework of identity construction. It focusses on the themes of sovereignty during the 2022 French presidency of the European Union and the national presidential election campaign. On the basis of Conceptual Metaphor Theory, it suggests that, apart from purely linguistic features, extra-linguistic factors are also essential in order to convey a global view of symbolic rhetoric. The analysis is conducted according to an overall 6-tier model of figurative origins involving the parameters of personal background, political context, cultural history, reference, conceptual metaphor and linguistic metaphor. By applying the parameters of the model, it is proposed that the core of political argumentation in the corpus analysis is based on national symbols and the conceptual mapping they embody. The basic hypothesis of the model assumes that a politician attempts to portray the symbolisation of unity in accordance with his or her political background and personal biography. A political narrative is thereby created within the current political context using predominant symbols in cultural history. An over-riding factor is the role of referential points which may determine divergence in conceptual mapping. These features then lead to the construction of conceptual metaphors which can take on a particularly hyperbolic structure in the ensuing linguistic metaphors. The implications of the study highlight the important role of symbolism in political debate, its interaction with conceptual metaphor, the relevance of extra-linguistic factors portrayed by the 6-tier model, the link between cultural history and hyperbolic linguistic structures and political divergence in similar symbols.

What makes the difference? Social media platforms and party characteristics as contextual factors for political parties’ use of populist political communication

Abstract Social media has contributed to the spread of populist political communication, yet we still lack systematic knowledge of the contextual factors affecting its use. In this study, we investigated how and to what degree platforms (Facebook, Instagram, Twitter) and party characteristics (populist vs. non-populist parties; political ideology) affected the use of populist communication by Norwegian political parties on social media during the 2021 national election campaign. Based on a tripartite conceptualisation of populist communication consisting of people-centrism, anti-elitism, and the exclusion of out-groups, we conducted a standardised content analysis of the official social media accounts of nine parties and their party leaders. Populist communication was overall rather rare, being most widespread on Facebook and least widespread on Twitter. Which parties used populist communication the most depended on the platform, and it was not always the populist Progress Party [Fremskrittspartiet] that communicated in the most populist manner. Parties located towards the fringes of the political party spectrum used more populist communication. Anti-elitism was more widespread among left-wing parties, and almost exclusively the right-wing Progress Party excluded out-groups.

Emergency Power in Hungary and the COVID-19

We live in an era of overlapping states of exceptions: the climate and ecological emergency, the permanent crisis of global capitalism, the migration crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic. Relying on the Hungarian political regime, this paper investigates how and why exceptional measures restructure our life. It can be argued that the main outcome of the exceptional measures is the rise of a new executive power, and it is demonstrated how heavily authoritarian regimes rely on the state of exception. It has been argued here that behind the strengthening of the emergency power there is the new rise of unlimited executive power, which is nothing more than the legal and political fulfilment of two-thirds majority power. Upon the case of the permanent state of exception of the Orbán regime, it can be said that the COVID-19 as an epidemiological crisis cannot be traced back to the Orbán administration, but the executive power has found a way to create a new political crisis based on the epidemic. The paper briefly discusses the impact of the 2022 Hungarian national election campaign period and the Russian aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 on the Hungarian emergency powers.

Between anger and love: A multi-level study on the impact of policy issues on user reactions in national election campaigns on Facebook in Germany, Hungary, and Norway

Eliciting user reactions is an important tactic for political actors using social media like Facebook to seek attention for campaign messages on policy issues. Still, little is known about policy issues’ effect on user reactions and how structural factors play into this relationship. Applying a standardized manual content analysis on Facebook posts from political parties and their top candidates during the German, Hungarian, and Norwegian national election campaigns in 2021/2022 ( N = 4988), we investigate the relationship between policy issues and two of Facebook’s “emotional reactions” (“angry” and “love”). We find that posts addressing the economy, energy policy, and foreign policy drive more “angry” reactions, while environmental posts drive more “love” reactions. While effects are largely uniform across different party types, there are more variations between countries. Our analyses suggest that differences between individual parties and candidates and situational factors are vital to understanding the relationship between policy issues and user reactions.

The Influences of Political Strategies and Communication Styles on Political Candidates’ Online and Offline Visibility

The main aim of this study is to investigate how political strategies (issue ownership, issue trespassing, and issue extremeness) and communication styles (responsiveness and mobilization) affect political candidates’ ability to trigger other users’ engagement (in terms of likes and retweets) as well as traditional media attention (in terms of news articles and of the proportion of media-related followers). Theoretically, the study links these strategies and communication styles within the framework of a single research and to expand these concepts to the social media realm. To do so, we rely on Swiss political candidates’ tweets over the course of the 2019 national election campaign while also integrating newspaper articles about these candidates. Combining political strategies with different styles of communication within the framework of a single study enables us to better understand the dynamics of public and media attention within political communication. Findings demonstrate a certain dose of media interconnection and highlight the specificities of Twitter in terms of communicative behaviors from media-related accounts and how they compare to offline media coverage. Practically, the study highlights what are best communication practices for political actors, especially which strategies and communications styles are more likely to generate other users’ engagement and media attention.

A Theory and Test of Pledge-Based Voting: The Limited but Real Effects of Election Pledges on Citizens’ Vote Choice

Do voters decide on the basis of the election pledges political parties make? Although this is a key assumption in most democratic theories and, seemingly, among parties who issue dozens of pledges during campaigns, the scientific literature does not provide a clear answer to this question. This article develops a theory of pledge-based voting and a research design that allows for studying the electoral effects of pledges in real-time as the campaign unfolds. Based on a novel experimental design embedded in panel surveys administered during and after the 2019 Danish national election campaign (N = 6233), we estimate that the most salient pledges affect vote choice by between 1.1 and 2.1 percentage points averaged across the electorate. While modest, these effects can be decisive in the often highly competitive context of modern elections. The findings have implications for our understanding of political behavior, party politics, and normative theories of democracy.

Election campaigns and the cyclical nature of emotions—How politicians engage in affective polarization

AbstractDo politicians get emotional during an election campaign? We examine the existence of changes in partisan in‐group favoritism and partisan out‐group hostility among political elites by evaluating the degree to which they fluctuate before, during and after election campaigns. The lack of elite level panel data has prevented scholars from studying the dynamics of politicians' emotions around the most emotionally intense political event in democracies: elections. We focus on Sweden around the 2014 election and follow more than 700 Swedish politicians before, during and after a national election campaign using a unique three‐wave panel survey. The results reveal that politicians' emotions towards other parties are affected during the election, but less so for their own party. Our study adds to the body of recent evidence that campaigns mobilize partisan identities and increase partisan animus.

Prime ministers in waiting? Women leaders of the opposition in Westminster systems

One of the key defining features of Westminster-type democracies is the acknowledgement of an official Opposition and a Leader of the Opposition typically referred to as a ‘prime minister in waiting’. This article focuses on this crucial element of Westminster democracy and applies a gender perspective, looking into women Leaders of the Opposition in the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia (1975–2022). As this inquiry reveals, there have been few and mostly short-lived women Leaders of the Opposition. Further, contrary to plausible assumptions, there have been more women Leaders of the Opposition from conservative than from left-wing parties. In particular, however, the office of Leader of the Opposition has, with few exceptions, not proven to be a springboard to the premiership. In fact, a majority of women prime ministers were ‘takeover prime ministers’, inheriting the office from a predecessor from their own party, rather than former Leaders of the Opposition, while many women Leaders of the Opposition were not even given the opportunity to lead their party into a national election campaign. The article discusses possible explanations for these patterns.

Campaigning Online: Use of the Internet by Parties, Candidates and Voters in National and Local Election Campaigns in Israel

Campaigning Online: Use of the Internet by Parties, Candidates and Voters in National and Local Election Campaigns in Israel

Women politicians in Austria: Still not breaking the media ceiling

Abstract The underrepresentation of women politicians in the media is a persistent feature in many contemporary democracies. Gender bias in election coverage makes it harder for women to reach positions of power in politics. Drawing on the special circumstances in Austria during the 2019 election campaign which saw the first female top candidate of a major party and a caretaker government containing equal numbers of men and women and which was led by the country’s first woman as chancellor, we examine the effect of these developments on women politicians’ representation in campaign coverage. We draw on quantitative content analysis of Austrian newspaper articles (N = 16,125) during four national parliamentary election campaigns (2008, 2013, 2017 and 2019). We show that for women politicians the media ceiling is slowly lifting at best, but that positions of power provide the most promising ways to evade gendered media bias.

Misinformation in India's 2019 National Election

This study investigates the dynamics and dissemination of political misinformation in India's 2019 national election campaign, drawing on cases identified by internationally verified fact-checkers. Many political parties and their affiliates or supporters deployed both positive (pro-party) and negative (anti-party) misinformation claims. The distribution of measures of engagement with misinformation claims on Facebook (N=4,478) show BJP, INC and CPIM were most often deploying positive or pro-party misinformation, whereas more parties were targeted with negative or anti-party misinformation. The incumbent BJP was the target of the largest number of negative misinformation claims that came from challenger parties and the INC in particular, confirming extant research from Western contexts that challengers go negative and attack incumbents while the latter tend to focus more on accomplishments. Negative or anti-party misinformation was deployed more than twice as often as pro-party misinformation and diffused farther than positive or pro-party claims.

Election Campaigns, News Consumption Gaps, and Social Media: Equalizing Political News Use When It Matters?

We investigate how inequalities in political media use develop throughout election campaigns, and in particular whether social media use helps counterbalance traditional news consumption gaps. Using a four-wave individual-level panel survey of the Norwegian 2017 national election campaign, we run a series of latent growth models to investigate whether differences in news consumption based on gender, age, education, and political interest increase or decrease during campaigns. We find that news consumption gaps are either stable or converge throughout the campaign. Importantly, social media provides political information to those groups that use traditional media channels the least and thereby reduce overall gaps in political media consumption. In this way, election campaigns, to some extent, equalize inequalities in political news consumption when it matters the most.

“Our Issue Positions are Strong, and Our Opponents’ Valence is Weak”: An Analysis of Parties' Campaign Strategies in Ten Western European Democracies

AbstractPolitical parties face strategic decisions about whether to campaign on issue-based appeals, pertaining to debates over such issues as economic, immigration, and environmental policies, versus valence-based appeals, emphasizing leadership attributes, such as character (integrity, honesty, and so on), along with performance, that is, the ability to deliver positive outcomes. To better understand these choices, we analyze parties' national election campaign strategies across ten Western European democracies. We argue for, and empirically substantiate, an: our issues versus their valence effect, that is, that parties' self-presentations will be more issue-based than their presentations of opponents; an extremist party issue focus effect, that is, that parties with more extreme ideologies most strongly emphasize issues over valence in their self-presentations; and a prime ministerial valence focus effect, that is, that prime ministerial parties more strongly self-present on valence. These findings have implications for election outcomes and mass–elite linkages.

Populism as a communication phenomenon: A cross-sectional and longitudinal comparison of political campaigning on Facebook

In this paper, we adopt the notion of populism as a communication phenomenon that includes typical elements of content (i.e. people, anti-elitism, and the exclusion of out-groups) and of style (i.e. evoking fear, oversimplification, and style of language). We thus move away from actor-centric approaches towards a content-centric approach of studying populism. Empirically, our study measures populism to varying degrees and forms in 3,564 Facebook posts of political parties in France, Germany and the United Kingdom during the 2014 EU election campaigns, the 2017 national parliamentary election campaigns, and a non-electoral period in 2018 in each country. The results show that populism is not a marginal phenomenon but that it is present in about one-fourth of all posts in some form; that there is variance between countries, party types, policy fields, and over time. While radical parties are very exclusionary towards out-groups on the right and very anti-elitist on the left and the right, this observation provides only a partial view of the multifaceted phenomenon of populism.

The Return of the “Lurker”: A Longitudinal Study of Citizens’ Use of Social Media in Danish Elections 2011, 2015, and 2019

In this case study on Denmark, we particularly focus on trajectories of participation, the question of increasing mobilization, and the perceived outcomes in terms of efficacy. Contrary to other studies, we seek to establish a coherent perspective including the “silent majority.” By combining studies of participation, mobilization, and efficacy, we wish to provide not only a rigorous documentation of mobilization and efficacy of social media during election campaigns, but also a historic documentation of the participatory use and perception of social media as a democratic and political tool during three national election campaigns from 2011 to 2019.

Interaction (Election Campaigning Communication)

Interaction (Election Campaigning Communication)