National Economic Conditions Research Articles

Tatakelola Utang dan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia:

Research aims to analyze the effect of debt and differences in government regimes on economic growth. and poverty in Indonesia, (1940-2017). The study uses secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia, National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the World Bank, and other reference sources such as books, journals and scientific papers. The data used are the value of foreign debt, national income (GDP), population, number and ratio of the poor population, inflation rate in the period 1949 - 2021. The results of multiple regression analysis show: Foreign debt has a correlation with national economic conditions, especially the GDP and poverty. Debt tends to increase GDP and reduce poverty. In terms of debt a driver of the economy and poverty, the Soeharto Era and Habibie's Era tend to be different and better than the Soekarno Era. While Era Abdurrahman Wahid's debt management, Megawati Era, SBY Era and Jokowi's Era were no different or no better than Sukarno's Era. Although nationally can increase GDP and reduce poverty, debt cannot improve people's welfare. Foreign debt even tends to reduce the level of welfare of the people. This applies to all government regimes.
 Keywords: Debt, Development, GDP,Indonesia, Poverty

Kajian Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Perekonomian Di Kabupaten Ende Dan Strategi Pemulihannya

The weakening of national economic conditions due to the Covid-19 pandemic has an impact on economic conditions in the regions, including in Ende Regency. Restrictions on community activities have disrupted economic activity in all sectors, including the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector. This can be seen in the reduced trading activity at several market in Ende Regency. This study was conducted to find out how much impact the Covid-19 pandemic had on the economy in Ende Regency. The results showed that (1) the economic condition in Ende Regency prior to the Covid-19 Pandemic was sufficiently demonstrated by the low GRDP value of Ende Regency; (2) The Direct Cash Assistance (DCA) policy has an economic impact on the community but it is not yet very effective because there are still many people who do not receive DCA funds even though they meet the criteria as prospective DCA recipients; (3) The impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the community is experienced by business actors more than farmers and the biggest impact is on the decline in the income level of MSME actors; (4) Ende Regency's economic sustainability is in a less sustainable status in terms of economic, social and institutional aspects; (5) The dominant variables affecting the economic status of Ende Regency are (1) superior products and limited online marketing; (2) public understanding of the governance that occurs and (3) there is no marketing agency in Ende Regency.

Pengaruh Sales growth, Capital intensity, Kompensasi Eksekutif, dan Kepemilikan Manajerial Terhadap Penghindaran Pajak

The slowdown in tax revenues was influenced by national economic conditions that were under pressure due to the weakening of the manufacturing industry, a decrease in international trade activities, and restrictions on community activities due to the pandemic. The objectives of this article is to find out how much sales growth, capital intensity, executive compensation, and manager ownership affect taxation. This is a form of quantitative associative research, with secondary data from annual financial statements served as the data source. The population includes property companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2017-2020 with a total population of 65 companies. The sample selection method chosen was purposive sampling and samples that matched the criteria obtained by 11 companies with a period of 4 years, so that 44 observation data were obtained. The data analysis methods used are descriptive statistics, testing classical assumptions, regression of panel data and hypothesis testing. Data analysis of this study uses statistical calculations using the Eviews application version 12. The results of simultaneous research (statistical test F) show that Sales growth, Capital intensity, Executive Compensation, and Managerial Ownership together affect tax avoidance. Based on the results of partial research (statistical test t) shows that Sales growth and Capital intensity have a negative and significant effect on tax avoidance, while in Executive Compensation and Managerial Ownership do not have a significant effect on tax avoidance.

Strategi Pemulihan Kondisi Ekonomi Nasional Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 dalam UMKM Kabupaten Tulungagung

March 2, 2020, is the day of obstacles for all sectors in Indonesia, especially the national economic sector. The tourism sector, industrial sector, mining sector, agriculture sector and other essential sectors experienced a tremendous downturn. All recovery efforts were made to restore industries that played a significant role in developing the national economy. Based on the phenomena that occurred, this article discusses how the strategy for restoring national economic conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic impacts UMKM. Based on the topic raised from the facts that happened, the research method was carried out quantitatively-qualitatively. This method is based on positivist thinking which seeks to explain causality in the phenomena. In addition, the phenomenological school of thought is also applied in understanding the wonders of social life. The data presented in the form of accurate quantitative data found in the reference literacy process and qualitative data obtained based on literacy studies.

The Characteristics of Building Long-Term Training Systems for Footballers in Foreign Countries

A scientific understanding of building a rational system of long-term training for footballers in Ukraine, as well as ways of its practical implementation, should rely on foreign experience in this field to be effective. The article aims to theoretically and methodologically justify foreign experience in building a rational system of long-term training for footballers. Each country demonstrates its options for solving this particular problem. The countries occupying leading positions in European football have well-established organizational and management systems for training and selection of athletes in the process of long-term improvement. In general, all of the above-mentioned countries use similar systems with their own specifics stemming from national traditions, economic and logistical conditions. Differences in the training of footballers from different countries are due to the different role and degree of participation of governmental, non-governmental and private structures.

PENDAMPINGAN MANAJEMEN DAN PENGEMBANGAN USAHA KULINER DONATE GENDHIS MANIS

The declining national economic conditions as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic were felt directly by the community, especially MSMEs engaged in the food and beverage sector. However, the stagnation and slowdown of the economy due to the pandemic cannot be left alone. The massive vaccination movement and the culture of health procedures in the community gave rise to a new spirit to re-open a business. Donate Gendhis Manis is one of the culinary businesses that developed during the Covid-19 pandemic. Challenges faced are limited insight and experience in business management in terms of production, marketing, human resources, finance, and risk management. The community service team tries to help develop the business by brainstorming, FGD, simulation, and providing production tools. As a result, Donate Gendhis Manis' culinary industry can empower itself by being more sensitive to market trends, environmental changes, and consumer tastes and improving its appearance by redesigning its packaging

External quality assessment providers' services appear to more impact the immunohaematology performance of laboratories than national regulatory and economic conditions.

Medical laboratories may, at their own discretion, exceed but not undercut regulatory quality requirements. Available economic resources, however, may drive or hinder eagerness to exceed minimum requirements. Depending on the respective scopes of regulatory and economic framework conditions, differing levels of quality efforts to safeguard laboratory performance can be anticipated. However, this has not yet been investigated. Immunohaematology external quality assessment (EQA) results collected by 26 EQA providers from their participant laboratories in 73 countries from 2004 to 2019 were evaluated. Error rates were aggregated in groups according to the respective national regulatory and economic framework conditions, to whether or not expert advice was provided in case of incorrect results, and the frequency of EQA samples. These representative data indicate no association between national regulatory (mandatory participation in EQA, monitoring of performance of individual laboratories by authorities, financial consequences of incorrect results) and economic (level of national income, share of national health expenditure) conditions to the quality performance of medical laboratories in immunohaematology. However, EQA providers' support for laboratories in the event of incorrect results appear to be associated with lower error rates, but a high EQA sample frequency with higher error rates. Further research into the impact of introducing or changing services of EQA providers is needed to confirm the results found in this first of its kind study.

INTEGRATION PROCESSES IN THE INTERNATIONAL OIL AND GAS BUSINESS: FORMS, TRENDS, SYNERGIES

It is difficult to imagine modern international oil and gas business without constantly transforming integration processes. Their necessity is dictated both by domestic national economic conditions in the hydrocarbon producing countries, and international conditions of the world oil and gas business market, as it becomes more and more difficult to be successful and to withstand the fierce competition in this sphere. Integration processes in international oil and gas business may take a variety of forms from the emergence of long-term and rigid market structures to temporarily create joint structures, depending on the current market conditions and situational goals and objectives. The article argues that the existing literature theoretical distinction between horizontal and vertical forms of integration in real practice is often conditional. In real practice, these forms are rarely implemented according to an outlined and purely classical scenario, more often the integration processes are carried out on a parallel and simultaneous scheme, "overlapping" with each other, that is, on a combined basis, as evidenced by specific examples from global and domestic practice cited in the article. The article also shows that combined schemes of international integration are used in the so-called M&A (mergers and acquisitions) deals, mergers and acquisitions of oil and gas companies. The analysis shows their complex combination and practical implementation in international oil and gas business markets. The analysis showed that the number of small and medium-sized companies in M&A deals is falling. However, the total capitalized value of transactions remains approximately at the same level. This stable financial balance in transactions indicates intensive cooperation of large companies with each other. In this regard, such form of integration as creation of international oil and gas joint ventures acquires special importance. The article shows economic and technological advantages of this cooperation, as well as the solution of the largest problems and achievement of significant practical results in the sphere of oil and gas business. At the same time, in the practice of studying the functioning of joint ventures, it is difficult to define and indicate their feasibility and effectiveness in specific economic conditions. If for large companies it is usually not in doubt, in the case of smaller companies the effectiveness is not so obvious. The authors propose to solve this practical problem through a specific calculation mechanism to determine the synergistic effect and emergence. The authors give a variant of such calculation in this article

Special elections in alternative vote electoral systems: Exploring turnout and the vote in Irish by-elections 1923–2019

Most literature on special elections has focused on first-past-the-post contests and on the performance of governments. Turnout, candidates, and how the electoral system impacts the result have received less attention. This contribution fills these voids by exploring special elections in Ireland, elections conducted under the alternative vote system. Taking a multifaceted approach, it investigates the correlates of turnout, the impact of candidates and the decisive effect of lower preferences, while also testing multiple explanations of government performance. I find Irish special elections live up to the by-election truisms of lower turnout and government loss. Government performance is associated with national economic conditions. By-election victory is more likely among candidates with familial lineage and former members of parliament. Where they come into play, one in five candidates owe their victory to lower preferences.

Parliamentary current questions’ constituency focus under times of crisis: an examination of the Greek case

ABSTRACT Do macro-economic conditions affect legislators’ representative focus? This article examines this novel predictor by analysing an original dataset of parliamentary questions from the Greek parliament. Greece is a very informative case since not only is it one of the countries most severely hit by the Eurozone Crisis but it also offers an institutional setting that provides plenty of incentives to re-election-seeking actors for constituency-focused representative work. The data utilised covers an extended period of six Greek legislatures and over 12,000 parliamentary current questions asked pre, during and post-crisis between 2006 and 2019. The stand-alone effect of macro-economic conditions as well as its interaction with known predictors like the legislators’ vulnerability is tested. Findings provide evidence that better national economic performance conditions increase the likelihood that MPs with table current questions about their constituency, although other traditional factors like electoral vulnerability remain important.

Economic voting in multi-level contexts: Evidence from Kerala and West Bengal in India

What determines electoral support for national incumbent parties and state-level challengers in sub-national pro-poor contexts? Based on survey data from the Indian states of Kerala and West Bengal, collected prior to the 2019 national election, we find that voters were more (less) inclined to vote for the sub-national incumbent relative to the national incumbent if their household economic conditions were perceived to have improved (deteriorated) relative to national economic conditions. Our findings indicate that voters in these settings correctly assume that the sub-national incumbent cannot be held responsible for changes in national economic conditions, but, at the same time, the existence of a strong welfare state at the sub-national level creates expectations that the sub-national government is responsible for personal welfare. Hence, the national election is used to assess the economic performance of both the sub-national and the national incumbent.

The Role Of E-Commerce In Community Economic Resurgence Post Covid-19

Abstract. The COVID-19 epidemic has had a severe impact on the economic sector of the community. The implementation of PSBB and WFH makes it difficult for people to fulfill their daily needs, however technological developments have created new opportunities in business, one of which is E-Commerce, which is used by online business people.The purpose of this research is to what extent E-Commerce is in the revival of the community economy after COVID-19. The method used in this study uses the System Literature Review (SLR), by examining several sources used as material in finding and obtaining literature including books, articles, electronic media and the web.Based on the results of data analysis, E-Commerce is one of the sectors driving the Indonesian economy after COVID-19, but it must be accompanied by high optimism for all business actors, stakeholders and society so that national economic conditions can rise after COVID -19.Keyword. e-commerce; community economic resurgence; post-COVID-19

Prediksi Indeks BEI dengan Ensemble Convolutional Neural Network dan Long Short-Term Memory

The Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) stock market index is one of the main indicators commonly used as a reference for national economic conditions. The value of the stock market index is often being used by investment companies and individual investors to help making investment decisions. Therefore, the ability to predict the stock market index value is a critical need. In the fields of statistics and probability theory as well as machine learning, various methods have been developed to predict the value of the stock market index with a good accuracy. However, previous research results have found that no one method is superior to other methods. This study proposes an ensemble model based on deep learning architecture, namely Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), called the CNN-LSTM. To be able to predict financial time series data, CNN-LSTM takes feature from CNN for extraction of important features from time series data, which are then integrated with LSTM feature that is reliable in processing time series data. Results of experiments on the proposed CNN-LSTM model confirm that the hybrid model effectively provides better predictive accuracy than the stand-alone time series data forecasting models, such as CNN and LSTM.

From the Brady Bunch to Gilmore Girls: The Effect of Household Size on Economic Voting

This article examines whether household size affects economic voting. We argue when individuals are asked about national economic conditions and their personal financial situation that moderate or mid-range responses are more likely in multi-person households than in one-person households. The aggregation of personal economic evaluations within households reduces the variation in economic opinions across household members. As a result, it is harder for an individual to say that the national economic conditions and her personal financial situation are good or bad as the number of household members increases. Using individual-level data from the American National Election Studies from 1966 to 2016, the authors find that both evaluations of the national economy and personal economic conditions are endogenous to household size. The aggregate, state-level evidence from five presidential elections in the U.S. shows that the impact of the economy on the incumbent support increases the larger the number of one-person households.

Looking forward and looking backward: Economic evaluations and regime support in China

It is widely acknowledged that the economic situation is of vital importance for the stability of an authoritarian regime, but it is rarely known how the public’s economic evaluation contributes to such outcomes. This study examines the effects of citizens’ retrospective and prospective evaluations of their household economic situation and the national economy on the level of regime support in China. The findings show that the national economy outweighs household economic conditions in its effects on the public’s support of the regime. However, the gap between evaluations of the national economy and individual economic situations debilitates regime support. The population in different age cohorts has distinct patterns of relationships between retrospective and prospective economic evaluations and regime support. This study elucidates the political-psychological mechanism of the public’s economic evaluation affecting regime support, and the ruling strategy in authoritarian regimes of manipulating this evaluation.

The Formation of Language Policy from the Historical Point of View and its Basic Principles

Language policy is understood as ensuring national unity, economic conditions and political reasons for interfering with the forms and functions of language within the framework of political powers. We can also express the status, languages, and regions of the languages spoken in a society as a set of ideas, laws, and decisions about the rights of individuals who speak them. Although the concepts of «language policy» and «language planning» are accepted as a new concept in sociolinguistics, they are rooted in the past. It should be noted that there is no single term that can express this concept among researchers conducting research in this field related to language policy and language planning. «Language policy, language planning» is often used as a different, sometimes the same concept. Language regulation is a concept that encompasses the whole of conscious activities related to the structure, position, use, and function of languages. However, it is a multifaceted chain of activities involving different processes, expressed in different terms, such as language regulation, language policy, language planning. These vary depending on whether the intervention consists of specific ideas or an abstract action plan, whether the activities are aimed at language norms or the status of the language. The first stage of language regulation is the assessment process aimed at identifying language, languagesociety problems. The problems that arise are considered. The next stage, language policy, is the most concrete stage of a regulatory activity, consisting of goal setting. Language planning is the activity of concretely implementing language policy. Language policy is a set of decisions and applications aimed at the languages spoken in a political unit, their areas, development and use. The main feature of language policy is the presence of conscious interference from outside. These external interferences focus on the internal structure of a language.

Robust Characterization of Multidimensional Scaling Relations between Size Measures for Business Firms.

Although the sizes of business firms have been a subject of intensive research, the definition of a “size” of a firm remains unclear. In this study, we empirically characterize in detail the scaling relations between size measures of business firms, analyzing them based on allometric scaling. Using a large dataset of Japanese firms that tracked approximately one million firms annually for two decades (1994–2015), we examined up to the trivariate relations between corporate size measures: annual sales, capital stock, total assets, and numbers of employees and trading partners. The data were examined using a multivariate generalization of a previously proposed method for analyzing bivariate scalings. We found that relations between measures other than the capital stock are marked by allometric scaling relations. Power–law exponents for scalings and distributions of multiple firm size measures were mostly robust throughout the years but had fluctuations that appeared to correlate with national economic conditions. We established theoretical relations between the exponents. We expect these results to allow direct estimation of the effects of using alternative size measures of business firms in regression analyses, to facilitate the modeling of firms, and to enhance the current theoretical understanding of complex systems.

Financial Distress Prediction Models in Property Sector Companies Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange

Along with the unstable national and global economic conditions, investors and consumers defend themselves to invest in the property sector. Companies go public in obtaining capital markets as a means to obtain sources of funds. Investors and creditors will see the financial condition required before the company will increase financial distress (financial distress) or not before investing their capital. Therefore, analysis and prediction of a company's financial problems is very important. This study uses the Financial Distress model by using discriminant analysis. The independent variables used are financial ratios which are divided into 4 categories (1) Liquidity Ratios, (2) Solvency Ratios, (3) Activity Ratios, (4) Profitability Ratios. This research uses quantitative with the Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA) model. The sample data used in this study includes property, real estate, and construction sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the 2014-2018 period. This study produces a financial distress model Z-score = -3,569 + 6,910DTA -1.107DTE + 7,515ROE + 3,573OPM with a cut-off value of -3,521. When the z-score of the company -3,521, the company is included in the non-financial pressure group.

ФОРМУВАННЯ СТРАТЕГІЇ РОЗВИТКУ ПІДПРИЄМСТВА З ВИКОРИСТАННЯМ ІНСТРУМЕНТАРІЮ СТРАТЕГІЧНОГО КОНТРОЛІНГУ

The article summarizes the methodological approaches to the formation of a strategy for the use of strategic controlling based on the analysis of the state of the external and internal environment, research of innovative activity and assessment of innovative potential. The author provides his own understanding of the essence of strategic controlling and establishes its main tasks in the enterprise management system. Different views to the definition of controlling, its functions and methods are researched. Systematization of knowledge is considered to order the role of controlling in contemporary economical thoughts. A place and a role of controlling in company management are determined. The information on practical possibilities of using the tools of strategic controlling is generalized and systematized. An attempt has been made to classify the controlling toolkit by industry and duration of the analyzed periods. The perspectives of controlling management technology are disclosed, due to the peculiarities of national economic conditions. The place of controlling in the enterprise management system as a central subsystem has been determined. The tasks, areas of application and objects of controlling have been defined. The factors of external and internal environment of the enterprise in modern conditions of management are characterized. For the successful implementation of strategic controlling, the advantages and disadvantages of its current tools are determined, the choice of which should be carried out due to the specific features of an individual enterprise. Taking into account all groups involved, the main goal of developing a new strategy for the enterprise was its preservation, improvement and development. The new development strategy aims to increase the value of the enterprise while achieving material, environmental and social goals. When introducing controlling, it is necessary to carefully evaluate the tools that will be introduced and compare the complexity of implementation, the need for the information received. The prospect of further research within the framework of this problem is the complex implementation of tools for the implementation of strategic controlling of production and economic activities at industrial enterprises.

The strategy to improve Indonesian clove production

Indonesia is one of the major clove producing country in the world. The broad trends Indonesian clove production and the production tends to increase every year. Indonesian clove export competitiveness in the international market is included in the very strong category because it has an RCA value above the world average, but Indonesian clove export competitiveness is still below the five competing countries. The purpose of this study was to formulate a strategy to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian clove exports. Based on SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) strategies that can be formulated to increase the competitiveness of Indonesian clove exports, namely: optimizing clove land, improving the quality of processed cloves, expanding markets, developing existing farmer institutions, collaborating with clove processing companies in major consumer countries, promoting organic farming systems in clove plantations, improving national economic conditions that support clove commodities.