National Drug Strategy Research Articles

Age, period and cohort effects on alcohol-related risky behaviours in Australia from 2001 to 2016.

The aim of this study is to examine age, period and birth cohort trends in the prevalence of any alcohol-related risky behaviour and to compare these trends between men and women. We used an age-period-cohort analysis of repeated cross-sectional survey data from the Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey from 2001 to 2016. Participants were 121 281 people aged 14-80 years who reported consuming alcohol in the past 12 months. Any risky behaviour undertaken while under the influence of alcohol in the past 12 months (e.g. operating a motor vehicle) was measured: male or female. Controlling for age and cohort, cubic spline models showed that any alcohol-related risky behaviour declined with time among participants who consumed alcohol [2016 versus 2007 rate ratio (RR) = 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.76-0.84]. Risky behaviour peaked in the 1954 birth cohort (1954 versus 1971 RR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.30-1.55) and then steadily declined with more recent birth cohorts (2002 versus 1971 RR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.27-0.39). Risky behaviour peaked at age 21 years, followed by steady decline and stabilization at approximately age 70 years. Males were overall twice as likely as females to report alcohol-related risky behaviour (RR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.84-2.39), but this effect was smaller in cohorts born after 1980 [1980 prevalence rate ratios (PRR) = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.81-2.43; 2002 PRR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.03-1.68]. Alcohol-related risky behaviour in Australia has declined generally since 2001, with rates for recent cohorts having the sharpest decline. Risky behaviour remains most prevalent in young adults, and the male-female gap in risky behaviour is closing for more recent birth cohorts. These trends are consistent with alcohol consumption trends observed in Australia and world-wide.

Age-period-cohort analysis of trends in tobacco smoking, cannabis use, and their co-use in the Australian population.

Background and aimThe prevalence of tobacco smoking has declined in most high‐income countries, while cannabis use has been rising. Moreover, cannabis use has been found to have increased among cigarette smokers in recent years in jurisdictions where it has been either decriminalized or legalized. This study measured trends in cannabis, tobacco and the co‐use of cannabis and tobacco in Australia.DesignAge–period–cohort analysis.Setting and participantsParticipants were n = 143 344 individuals aged 18–80 years who participated in Australia's National Drug Strategy Household Surveys (NDSHS) between 2001 and 2019.MeasurementsRegular (weekly/more frequently): (1) tobacco smoking only, (2) cannabis use only and (3) the co‐use of cannabis and tobacco.FindingsPrevalence of only smoking tobacco decreased in all age groups (P < 0.001) and birth cohorts between 2001 and 2019, but the co‐use of cannabis and tobacco did not. Younger cohorts were much less likely to co‐use tobacco and cannabis (P = 0.02). Period trends showed that both cannabis use only and the co‐use of cannabis and tobacco have increased since 2013.ConclusionThere has been a consistent decrease in exclusive tobacco smoking across age, period and birth cohorts between 2001 and 2019 in Australia, although there is a recent increasing period trend in cannabis use with or without tobacco. The non‐decreasing trend of co‐use may reflect the strong tobacco control policies introduced over the period and changing attitudes towards cannabis use in Australia.

Prevalence and correlates of cannabis use for medicinal reasons – An Australian cross-sectional study

ObjectiveIt is important to know the prevalence and source of medicinal cannabis use in the population because non-prescribed medicinal use of cannabis products places individuals at higher risk of harms. We estimated the prevalence and correlates of the use of cannabis for medicinal purposes in Australia, three years after Australians were given legal access. DesignCross-sectional. SettingThe 2019 Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey. ParticipantsParticipants were 22,015 Australians aged 14 or above. Outcome measureSelf-reported cannabis use in the last 12 months for medicinal purposes only, both medicinal/recreational reasons, or recreationally only. Those who reported medicinal use were asked if it had been prescribed by a doctor. Prevalence estimates were weighted to the population and multinomial logistic regression examined the correlates. ResultsThe prevalence of any medicinal cannabis use in the past year was 2.6%. Only 0.8% of the sample reported using cannabis solely for medicinal reasons, 95.9% of whom did not have a prescription. A self-reported diagnosis of cancer was associated with medicinal use only. Self-reported chronic pain was associated with both medicinal only and medicinal/recreational use. Medicinal cannabis use was associated with opioids use. ConclusionsIn 2019, the prevalence of cannabis use solely for medicinal reasons remains under 1%, was more common among people with specific medical conditions, but most individuals do not have a prescription. The prevalence of self-reported medicinal cannabis use in Australia is low and there is limited use of the legal pathway for medicinal cannabis.

Controlled Delivery of Illegal Drug Parcels in Scotland: Does Policing Practice Align With a Public Health Approach Focused on Drug-Related Harm?

An increase in the flow of drugs into the UK via international postal systems poses challenges for law enforcement. ‘Controlled delivery’ can be used to disrupt supply networks and secure intelligence for prosecution; however, critics argue that law enforcement should instead focus on reducing drug-related harm. In Scotland, national drugs strategy adopts a public health approach but it is unclear whether this extends to policing practice. Therefore, this paper examines whether controlled delivery of drug parcels aligns with a public health policing approach. We find evidence of alignment in terms of potential harm to individual users, particularly in relation to legal highs, but not in terms of drug-related harms within the communities to which parcels were destined. We argue that further investigation is required in order to assess the extent to which political intent and policing practice in Scotland align around the principles of harm reduction and public health.

Effect of vaping on past-year smoking cessation success of Australians in 2019-evidence from a national survey.

Background and aimsPrevious analyses of the effect of e‐cigarettes on real world smoking cessation success have mainly been based on surveys undertaken in the United States and United Kingdom, where nicotine e‐cigarettes can be readily obtained. In Australia, regulations have made obtaining e‐cigarettes containing nicotine difficult. The effectiveness of e‐cigarette use as a smoking cessation aid in Australia might therefore be lower than survey‐based estimates published to date. This study aimed to estimate the effect of using e‐cigarettes for a smoking cessation attempt on past‐year smoking cessation success in Australia.DesignMultivariable logistic regression models for past‐year smoking cessation success.Setting and participantsRespondents to the 2019 wave of Australia's National Drug Strategy Household Survey who made a smoking cessation attempt in the 12 months leading up to the survey.MeasurementsPast‐year smoking cessation success was assumed if a smoking cessation attempt resulted in abstinence of more than a month at the time of the survey.FindingsIn 2019, Australians who attempted to quit smoking using e‐cigarettes achieved greater success than smokers attempting to quit without e‐cigarettes [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.68; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09–2.60]. If people who only tried e‐cigarettes once or twice are considered not to have used e‐cigarettes, the estimated effect was slightly stronger (aOR = 1.98; 95% CI = 1.27–3.10). Also, the estimated odds ratio was higher among vapers who acquired their e‐cigarettes from overseas websites (aOR = 2.24; 95% CI = 1.02–4.93).ConclusionsUse of e‐cigarettes for a smoking cessation attempt appears to be associated with greater success among Australians who attempted to quit tobacco in 2019 compared with Australians attempting to quit without e‐cigarettes, after adjusting for confounding effects.

Monitoring changes in smoking and quitting behaviours among Australians with and without mental illness over 15 years

ObjectiveThis study examines smoking prevalence and quitting behaviours among Australians with and without mental illness. MethodsAnalysis of data from Australia's triennial National Drug Strategy Household Surveys 2004–2019. The prevalence of regular smokers, never smokers, the quit proportion, cigarette consumption, and use of cessation aids were examined for those with and without mental illness. ResultsAmong Australians with mental illness, there was a significant decrease in regular smokers and significant increases in never smokers and in the proportion of ever smokers who had quit between 2004 and 2019. Smokers with mental illness were generally as likely to attempt to quit and more likely to use cessation support; however, they were also more likely to report unsuccessful quit attempts. Smokers with mental illness who had quit reported lower levels of psychological distress than those still smoking. ConclusionSince 2004, there have been some encouraging trends in reducing tobacco use among people with mental illness; however, smoking rates remain substantially higher than among those without mental illness. Implications for public healthFindings highlight the importance of routinely identifying smokers with mental illness and improving access and adherence to best practice smoking cessation treatment.

Alcohol consumption, heavy episodic drinking and the perpetration of antisocial behaviours in Australia

AimsThis study aims to understand the dose-response relationship of the volume and patterns of alcohol consumption with alcohol-related antisocial behaviours (ASB) in the general population and assess whether these relationships are consistent across various sociodemographic subgroups. MethodsWe used data from 30,275 respondents aged (14−69) from two waves (2013 and 2016) of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS). Average daily alcohol consumption and heavy episodic drinking (HED) frequencies were treated as the main independent variables and self-reported ASB perpetration as the dependent variable. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models predicting ASB with interaction terms between alcohol consumption and various sociodemographic variables were estimated. FindingsCompared with low-risk drinking (0.01–20 g of alcohol/day), respondents drinking at risky (20.01–40 g of alcohol/day) and high risk (>40 g of alcohol per day) levels had an increased prevalence of ASB perpetration with adjusted odds ratios of 3.63 (95% CI 2.98–4.42) and 8.07 (6.72–9.71). Increasing frequency of HED was also linked to increased self-report of ASB perpetration in bivariable and multivariable models. In our interaction models, we found higher probabilities of ASB perpetration among younger and unmarried respondents for a given level of drinking. Discussion and conclusionsBoth average daily alcohol consumption and frequency of HED predict the probability of perpetrating alcohol-related ASB. Unsurprisingly, the risk of alcohol-specific ASB increased more quickly with consumption levels for younger and single respondents, suggesting interventions to reduce consumption among younger and unmarried persons will significantly impact ASB.

Increasing cocaine use amongst employed Australians: who is most at-risk?

Australian's cocaine use is at record levels. Large increases occurred between 2016-2019, with significant increases predominately found among employed Australians. Patterns, and prevalence of workers' cocaine use were examined using the 2016 and 2019 National Drug Strategy Household Survey data via frequency analyses. Logistic regression modelling identified predictors of employed Australian's: cocaine use (2019); and increased use over time (2016-2019). Workers' cocaine use increased 63% between 2016-2019 (3.8%-6.2%). Predictors of use, and increased use, were age, marital status, state, remoteness, smoking status, alcohol use, and cocaine approval level. Income and psychological distress predicted cocaine use in 2019 only. Highest prevalence in 2019 occurred among workers who approved of regular cocaine use (47.9%), currently smoked (14.9%), were very highly distressed (14.0%), risky alcohol consumers (13.7%), and aged 18-24 years (13.9%). Numerous individual-level characteristics influence workers' cocaine use. Workplace cultural norms and substance use climates may facilitate increased cocaine use. The workplace is a powerful setting for cocaine prevention and intervention efforts. Potential strategies include targeting social norms, shifting positive drug use workplace cultures, and providing health and safety training focussing on the risk of use to self and co-workers whilst also examining demographic subgroups' motivations for use.

If cannabis use is increasing among workers what are the implications for policy? A secondary analysis of a nationally representative Australian dataset

Patterns, prevalence and predictors of past year cannabis use were examined by industry and occupation groups through secondary analyses of Australia’s triennial National Drug Strategy Household Surveys (2010, 2013, 2016, 2019). Frequency analyses examined cannabis prevalence. Logistic regression models estimated adjusted effects of demographics on cannabis use amongst employees overall, and within industries and occupations where prevalence differed from the employed national average. Workers’ cannabis use increased 17.4% between 2010 and 2019. Workers most likely to use cannabis in all models were male, smokers, aged 14–24 years, and with very high psychological distress levels. Prevalence was highest among trade workers (18.2%) and those in Arts and Recreation Services (26.6%). The greatest relative increases occurred in industries where prevalence levels were traditionally very low. To date, cannabis-related workplace policies and interventions have been predicated on any level of use being potentially risky. However, greater social acceptability, more lenient legal constraints, and increased medicinal use of cannabis necessitates approaches that reflect changing social norms and address the needs of workers vulnerable to harm. Findings highlight the importance of reconceptualizing risk mitigation strategies and implementing novel and effective prevention, intervention approaches and policies tailored to specific workforce settings and populations with differing risk profiles.

The who and what of women's drinking: Examining risky drinking and associated socio-demographic factors among women aged 40-65 years in Australia.

Recent trends in Australian national survey data show an increase in alcohol use among middle-aged people, amidst declines in alcohol use among other population groups. There is limited research, however, on middle-aged women's alcohol use. This study aimed to examine patterns in alcohol use among Australian women aged 40-65 and the associated sociodemographic and contextual factors. Cross-sectional data from six waves of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (2001-2019). We estimated the prevalence of long-term risky drinking (>2 Australian standard drinks per day) and risky-single occasion drinking (>5 Australian standard drinks on one occasion) among middle-aged women. Logistic regression models were estimated using 2019 data to examine demographic characteristics and contextual factors associated with alcohol use. Since 2001, there has been a statistically significant increase in long-term risky drinking and risky-single occasion drinking amongst middle-aged women in Australia. Educational attainment, marital status and employment status were negatively associated with risky drinking, whereas rurality, age and location of use were positively associated with risky drinking. Beverage type was both positively and negatively associated with risky drinking. Given the significant increase in alcohol use amongst middle-aged women in Australia, prevention efforts are needed for this group, which may focus in particular on home drinking and the impact of rurality on alcohol use.

Policy windows for drug consumption rooms in Finland.

Background: Use of drug consumption rooms is a novel harm reduction approach to reach marginalised and isolated people who used drugs, under the high risk of overdose deaths and infectious diseases. The aim of this article was to evaluate the policy opportunities and barriers of the Helsinki City initiative for establishing the first drug consumption room (DCR) in Finland from the multiple streams framework. Method: A qualitative interview research method is used to evaluate the perspectives of stakeholders. By including 23 participants, we analysed the political, social and policy level advantages and disadvantages of the current initiative. Findings: Our results show that the cost of DCRs, the COVID-19 burdens on public resources, the requirement of legislative change, public unawareness, potential policy failure of DCRs, and its impacts on electoral votes constitute the main policy barriers. On the other hand, an increase in drug-related deaths, economic benefits of DCR for society, its effects on street safety and public order, being a local initiative, prospectus change in national drug strategy plans and motivation to catch up with EU standards were underlined as policy opportunities. Four issues, leadership, moral perspective, social change and generational differences, act as mediating factors, which are fluctuated according to public opinions and political environment. Conclusion: By applying the multiple streams framework, our results show that experts’ DCR problematisation is still beyond the public and political interest, which needs additional effort around problem identification and prioritisation. Besides public unawareness, the COVID-19 situation seems to be postponing policy progress since the primary attention and available funds have already been dedicated to public health. Already having a local initiative and an upcoming drug strategy plan might be good formal leverage, but unexpected events might also trigger discussions.

A Web-Based Alcohol and Other Drug Prevention Program (Strong & Deadly Futures) for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander School Students: Protocol for a Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

BackgroundThere are no available school-based alcohol and drug prevention programs with evidence of effectiveness among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander youth. To address this, we codeveloped the Strong & Deadly Futures well-being and alcohol and drug prevention program in partnership with an Indigenous creative design agency and 4 Australian schools.ObjectiveThis paper presents the protocol to evaluate the effectiveness of Strong & Deadly Futures in reducing alcohol and other drug use and improving well-being among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander youth.MethodsThe target sample will be 960 year 7 and 8 students from 24 secondary schools in Australia, of which approximately 40% (384/960) will identify as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander. The study design is a 2-group, parallel cluster randomized controlled trial with allocation concealment. Recruited schools will be block randomized (ratio 1:1), stratified by geographical remoteness, by an independent statistician. Schools will be randomized to receive Strong & Deadly Futures, a web-based alcohol and drug prevention and social and emotional well-being program that delivers curriculum-aligned content over 6 lessons via an illustrated story, or health education as usual (control). Control schools will be supported to implement Strong & Deadly Futures following trial completion. Surveys will be administered at baseline, 6 weeks, 12 months, and 24 months (primary end point) post baseline. Primary outcomes are alcohol use (adapted from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey), tobacco use (Standard High School Youth Risk Behavior Survey), and psychological distress (Kessler-5 Psychological Distress Scale). Secondary outcomes are alcohol and drug knowledge and intentions, alcohol-related harms, binge drinking, cannabis use, well-being, empowerment, appreciation of cultural diversity, and truancy.ResultsThe trial was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council in January 2019, approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the University of Sydney (2020/039, April 2020), the Aboriginal Health and Medical Research Council of New South Wales (1620/19, February 2020), the Western Australian Aboriginal Health Ethics Committee (998, October 2021), and the ethics committees of each participating school, including the New South Wales Department of Education (2020170, June 2020), Catholic Education Western Australia (RP2020/39, November 2020), and the Queensland Department of Education (550/27/2390, August 2021). Projected dates of data collection are 2022-2024, and we expect to publish the results in 2025. A total of 24 schools have been recruited as of submission of the manuscript.ConclusionsThis will be the first cluster randomized controlled trial of a culturally inclusive, school-based alcohol and drug prevention program for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander youth; therefore, it has significant potential to address alcohol and other drug harms among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander youth.Trial RegistrationAustralian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12620001038987; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=380038&isReview=trueInternational Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)PRR1-10.2196/34530

Mapping Problematic Drinking Trends over Time in Urban, Semi-Urban, and Rural Populations.

Current alcohol public health policy in Australia is not uniform but is generally focused on restricting access and early prevention of problematic alcohol use. Semi-urban and rural populations are at greater risk of disease and other poor health outcomes due to a variety of factors. Little is known about problematic drinking patterns over time in semi-urban and rural populations. This study aims to assess patterns of problematic drinking defined as both long-term risky and heavy episodic drinking over time by age, sex, and mental health status among urban, semi-urban and rural populations). Four waves (2004 to 2016) of the Australian NDSHS (National Drug Strategy Household Survey) were analyzed to assess problematic drinking of participants over 18 years of age. We used regression models and predictive margins to identify trends in problematic drinking over time based on age, sex, and mental health status. Our results show young adults across all regions, males, and mentally well individuals in urban areas have reductions in the risk of problematic drinking over time. Middle-aged adults across all regions, females, and those with varying mental health presentations in rural areas have some increases in risk of problematic drinking over time. The general conclusion is that targeted alcohol-related public health policy may need to change and focus on females, middle-aged individuals, and those living in rural areas. Programs to support problematic drinking in people with mental health disorders may also need to be a priority.

Alcohol-related family violence in Australia: Secondary data analysis of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey

Aims: Alcohol is a risk factor for family violence that affects partners, parents, children and other relatives. This study aims to provide estimates of the prevalence of alcohol-related family violence reported in 2016 in Australia across numerous socio-demographic groups.&#x0D; Methods: This paper presents secondary data analysis of 23,749 respondents (10,840 men, 12,909 women) from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s 2016 National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS). Alcohol-related family violence was measured by self-report as being physically or verbally abused or put in fear from a family member or partner deemed by the victim as under the influence of alcohol. Logistic regression was used to analyse which factors were associated with alcohol-related family violence. &#x0D; Findings: Analysis revealed that 5.9% of respondents (7.7% of women and 4.0% of men) reported alcohol-related family violence in the past year from either a partner or another family member. Respondents who were women (vs men), within less advantaged (vs more advantaged) socio-economic groups, risky drinkers (vs non-risky drinkers), residing in outer regional areas (vs major cities), holding a diploma (vs high school education) and single with dependents, reported higher overall rates of alcohol-related family violence. In contrast, respondents aged 55+ had significantly lower odds of experiencing alcohol-related family violence than all other age groups.&#x0D; Conclusions: Alcohol-related family violence was significantly more prevalent amongst respondents in a range of socio-demographic categories. Identification of these groups which are adversely affected by the drinking of family and partners can aid in informing current policy to protect those more vulnerable.

Changes in and correlates of Australian public attitudes toward illicit drug use.

The present study explores Australian public support for more lenient treatment of persons found in possession of small amounts of illegal drugs for personal use. Data for the study are drawn from the 2013, 2016 and 2019 National Drug Strategy Household Surveys. Bivariate associations were tested using χ2 tests corrected for survey design. Multivariate analyses of public support for legalisation and imprisonment involved logistic regression. Multivariate analyses of public preferences for various responses to those found in possession of illicit drugs involved the use of multinomial regression. Support for legalising personal use of three drugs (cannabis, ecstasy and cocaine) has risen significantly since 2013 but remained stable (and low) for two (heroin and methamphetamine). Support for no action, a caution or a warning has grown for those found in possession of cannabis, ecstasy and heroin for personal use but not for those found in possession of methamphetamine. There is, however, more support for responding to this group with treatment, education or a small fine than there is for imprisonment. There is strong support for legalising use of cannabis. There is little support for legalising use of ecstasy and cocaine but growing public support for a less punitive approach to those who use these drugs. There is little public support for a change in the current approach to heroin and methamphetamine.

Role of psychological distress on long-term risky and heavy-episodic drinking patterns in major cities and rural and remote areas.

Psychological distress and alcohol consumption are associated but few studies have focused on the association with problematic drinking in semi-urban and rural settings. In this study, we assessed the role of psychological distress on various measures of problematic drinking in urban, semi-urban and rural settings. Retrospective descriptive study Setting SETTING: National Drug Strategy Household Survey population health survey data PARTICIPANTS: 151,341 Australian residents MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Problematic alcohol consumption categorised as either heavy-episodic drinking (defined as drinking 5 or more standard drinks at least once in the last 12months) or long-term risky drinking (defined as drinking more than 730 standard drinks in the past 12months) was the outcome variables. Psychological distress was identified from the K10 questionnaire. Participants were grouped into area of residence: urban, semi-urban and rural. Sex differences were also explored. Poor-to-severe psychological distress was associated with higher odds of both long-term and heavy-episodic drinking. Being male alone increased the risk of both long-term and heavy-episodic drinking in all areas. When stratified by sex, being female and severe levels of psychological distress increased the risk of both long-term risky and heavy-episodic drinking. These risks were greater in non-urban environments. Poor mental health outcomes may exacerbate problematic drinking amongst females, especially those living in non-urban environments. Public health campaigns could both target these at-risk groups of females in non-urban settings and also account for the interplay between problematic drinking and mental health.

Is smoking reduction and cessation associated with increased e-cigarette use? Findings from a nationally representative sample of adult smokers in Australia

AimsE-cigarettes may benefit public health if they are effective for smoking cessation. Evidence suggests that the frequency of e-cigarette use is likely an important predicator of smoking cessation success, so we examined the associations between frequency of e-cigarette use and smoking reduction and cessation in an Australian population sample of past year adult smokers. MethodsData from the 2019 National Drug Strategy Household Survey were used (N = 22,015). The sample was restricted to 3868 adults who had smoked within the past year. The outcome was self-reported smoking status and smoking reduction, adjusted for key potential confounders. ResultsCompared with no current e-cigarette use, daily e-cigarette users reported an increased likelihood for smoking reduction among current daily smokers (RRR = 2.83; 95% CI = 1.53, 5.22) and were more likely to report quitting smoking among past year smokers (RRR = 2.16; 95% CI = 1.30, 3.58). Smoking reduction and cessation for occasional e-cigarette use were not significantly different from no e-cigarette use. ConclusionsDaily, but not occasional, e-cigarette users were more likely to quit or reduce smoking cigarettes than Australian smokers who did not use e-cigarettes.

Commentary on McCoy et al.: More pieces of the mosaic describing outcomes of the Australian up-scheduling of over-the-counter codeine to prescription only.

Data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) about trends in treatment and non-medical use of codeine and other opioids supports other recent studies indicating there has been no unintended harm from the February 2018 upscheduling of over-the-counter codeine to prescription only. Understanding the trends in non-medical use of pharmaceutical drugs and its consequences relies upon triangulating signals from different data sources to provide a mosaic overview [1]. McCoy et al.’s recent work forms an integral part of the picture in understanding outcomes from a major Australian opioid policy decision: the removal of codeine sales without a prescription [2]. The study examined those who regularly used codeine prior to the re-scheduling change and found reductions in codeine use, no increase in use of other opioids and reduced levels of opioid dependence following codeine re-scheduling. Small increases in general practitioner visits but a reduction in emergency department visits for opioids was also observed, alongside no change in mental health symptoms and an overall reduction in pain. These findings are consistent with work demonstrating a reduction in intentional poisonings with codeine [3], an analysis of population-level opioid supply showing no evidence of substitution to other opioids [4] and a study that found decreased codeine deaths, emergency department presentations and poisonings [5]. Collectively, these data sources provide a coherent picture indicating this policy change did not appear to have unintended harms. This may be linked to the substantial investment and implementation efforts that occurred at the time to raise awareness and support referral for pain management and alcohol and other drug treatment [6]. We write to describe the effects of up-scheduling using several sources provided by the AIHW, which represent a final piece of the puzzle. The National Drug Strategy Household Survey is conducted every 3 years. In 2016, past 12-month non-medical use of pharmaceuticals was the second leading category of drug misuse (4.8% of adults aged 14 or more years) after cannabis [7]. Non-medical use of painkillers/opioids was reported by 3.6% of the population: 29% misused painkillers/opioids at least weekly and 10.7% reported not being able to stop or cut back. Of those reporting misuse of painkillers/opioids, 74.8 and 40.6% reported non-medical use of OTC or prescription codeine, respectively. The prevalence of OTC codeine product misuse was highest in youths aged 14–19 years; 89% of those misusing painkillers/opioids reported this in the previous 12 months. In the 2019 survey, with codeine no longer available without a prescription, the proportion of people using codeine for non-medical purposes halved from 3.0% in 2016 to 1.5% [8]. The proportion of people who had recently misused pharmaceuticals decreased from 4.8% in 2016 to 4.2% in 2019. This included a decrease in the proportion of those recently misusing pain-killers/opioids from 3.6 to 2.7% during this period: of these, there was a statistically significant decrease in the proportion who had misused codeine, from 87.95% in 2016 to 60.7% in 2019. AIHW reports on episodes of care for clients seeking treatment from publicly funded Australian drug treatment services [9, 10] including reporting on trends where codeine was a drug of concern (Fig. 1). The number of codeine-related combined principal and additional drugs of concern closed episodes more than halved (51.1%), from 2711 in the last full financial year when codeine was available OTC (2016–17) to 1326 in the most recent year (2019–20). AIHW also reports standardized data concerning opioid agonist treatment with methadone or buprenorphine for the treatment of opioid use disorder [11]. From 2014 to 2020 heroin and pharmaceutical opioids accounted for 60–65% and 35–40% of the opioid of dependence, respectively (where reported). In the last calendar year (2017), when codeine was available OTC without a prescription, it accounted for 2095 cases (17.5% of all pharmaceutical opioids of dependence reported). This increased to 2332 (19%) in 2018, the first year following up-scheduling on 1 February 2018, and decreased each subsequent year to 2014 (15.7%) in 2020—the lowest proportion since 2015. The treatment and non-medical use data presented here support recent studies that indicate no evidence of unintended harms with codeine re-scheduling. This differs from that seen with re-scheduling of hydrocodone in the United States with a shift to other opioids [12]. This also contrasts with perceptions of pharmacists and consumers, and with concerns raised in submissions to the Therapeutic Goods Administration [13]. These findings may give the small number of countries who continue to supply codeine without a prescription confidence that, with appropriate implementation efforts, such a change can be made without adverse consequences for individuals and the community. Suzanne Nielsen was a co-author in the Addiction paper McCoy et al. to which we refer for this commentary.

1543Gains in life expectancy in the Australian population due to reductions in smoking: comparisons between interventions targeting the population versus interventions in a specific high risk group

Abstract Background Four decades of population-based tobacco control strategies have contributed to substantial reduction in smoking prevalence in Australia. However, smoking prevalence is still double in socially disadvantaged groups compared to those that are not. But not all tobacco control strategies successfully used in the general population is effective in specific high-risk population groups. Hence, an effective way to reduce smoking in high risk population groups may include targeting them specifically to identify and support smokers to quit. In this backdrop, we examined whether tobacco control interventions at the population-level are more effective in increasing life expectancy among Australians compared to interventions targeting a high risk group or a combination of the two when smoking prevalence is reduced to 10 and 0% respectively. Methods Using the risk percentiles approach, analyses were performed separately for men and women using data from various sources such as the 2014–15 National Health Survey linked to death registry, simulated data for high risk groups, and the Australian population and deaths data from the census. Indigenous status was simulated by preferentially assigning those who are indigenous to lower SES quintiles. The age-sex distribution of mental disorder status was simulated using its distribution from 2016 National Drug Strategy Household Survey with 25.9% of mentally ill being assigned to current smoking category and the rest to non-smoking category. The age-sex distribution of prisoners was simulated based on 2014 ABS Prisoners Australia survey with 74% of prisoners being assigned to current smoker category and the rest to non-smoker category. Homelessness status was simulated according to age, sex and indigenous status for 2011 census with all homeless being allocated to the lowest SES category. The age-sex distribution of total cholesterol level was simulated based on 2011–13 Australian Health Survey. Results The results showed that the combined approach for reducing smoking is most effective for improving life expectancy of Australians particularly for the socially disadvantaged and mentally ill groups both of which have high fraction of smokers in the population. For those who were mentally ill the gain in ALE due to reduction of smoking to 10% was 0.53 years for males and 0.36 years for females which were around 51 and 42% respectively of the maximal gains in ALE that could be achieved through complete cessation. Conclusions Targeting high-risk population groups having substantial fraction of smokers in the population can strongly complement the existing population-based smoking reduction strategies. As population and high risk approaches are both important, the national prevention policies should make judicious use of both to maximize health gain.

Who would try (or use more) cannabis if it were legal?

This study sought to determine: (i) whether decriminalisation of cannabis use would increase the proportion who would try the drug; and (ii) the proportion who would use more cannabis; and (iii) explore their characteristics. Australian National Drug Strategy Household surveys were used to address (i)-(iii). Significant independent predictors of (i) and (ii) were identified using logistic regression. An estimated 4.2% of the population aged 14 and over (n=882 708) who have never tried cannabis before would try it, if use of the drug were made legal, while 2.6% of the population aged 14 and over (537 000) would use more cannabis if its use were made legal. Respondents were more likely to say they would try cannabis if they were male, younger or suffered from a mild, moderate and/or severe level of psychological stress. Respondents were more likely to say they would use more cannabis if they were male, younger, psychologically stressed and not currently frequent users of the drug. Decriminalisation of cannabis use is likely to result in an increase in consumption of the drug among young people with mental health problems. If cannabis use is decriminalised, Australian State and Territory Governments should make provision for a possible increase in demand for drug treatment and for public education on the risks associated with frequent/prolonged cannabis use.