National Disability-adjusted Life-years Research Articles

The global, regional, and national patterns of change in the burden of congenital birth defects, 1990–2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021 and forecast to 2040

Congenital birth defects (CBDs) present enormous challenges to global healthcare systems. These conditions severely impact patients' health and underscore issues related to socioeconomic development and healthcare accessibility and efficiency. Previous studies have been geographically limited and lacked comprehensive global analysis. This study provides global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data for four major congenital birth defects-congenital heart defects (CHD), neural tube defects (NTDs), digestive congenital anomalies (DCAs), and Down syndrome (DS) from 1990 to 2021, emphasizing health inequalities. The goal is to offer scientific evidence for optimizing resource allocation, focusing on high-burden populations, and reducing disease burden. This study systematically evaluated the global, regional, and national burden of CBDs and their changes from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. To conduct a more focused analysis, four specific CBDs were selected: CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS. DALYs were used as the metric, combined with the sociodemographic index (SDI). Analyses included the slope index of inequality and concentration index to measure health inequalities, frontier analysis to estimate achievable outcomes based on development levels, decomposition analysis to identify drivers of disease burden changes, Joinpoint regression analysis to assess temporal trends, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict future disease burden trends. Compared to 1990, the global burden of the CBDs in 2021 showed a downward trend. Males had a higher burden than females, with the highest burden observed in low-SDI regions. When examining CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS specifically, trends in burden changes varied across different CBDs at the global, regional, and national levels. Frontier analysis revealed potential for burden improvement in various countries and territories. Decomposition analysis highlighted differences in disease burden drivers across SDI regions, showing the greatest improvement observed in low-SDI regions. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a downward trend in DALYs burden across SDI regions, and BAPC model predictions suggested that the burden of CBDs will continue to decline in the future. CBDs pose a major challenge to global public health. Despite an overall decline in disease burden, health inequalities remain prominent, particularly in countries and territories with lower levels of development. Future public health interventions should focus on countries and territories with low levels of development by optimizing healthcare resource allocation, improving basic health infrastructure, enhancing health education, and reducing disease burden inequalities. Global collaboration and data sharing are essential to promote a lifecycle management model for CBDs research and treatment, advancing global health development. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82270310) and the Jiangsu Provincial Key Research and Development Program (No. BE2023662).

Global, regional, and national prevalence, disability adjusted life years, and time trends for refraction disorders, 1990\u20132019: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

BackgroundTo evaluate global burden of refraction disorders by year, age, region, gender, socioeconomic status and other national characteristics in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and prevalence from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 and World Bank Open Data 2019.MethodsGlobal, regional, and national DALY numbers, crude DALY rates, age-standardized DALY and prevalence rates of refraction disorders were acquired from the GBD study 2019. Mobile cellular subscriptions, urban population, GDP per capita, access to electricity and total fertility rate were obtained from the World Bank to explore the factors that influenced the health burden of refraction disorders. Kruskal-Wallis test, linear regression and multiple linear regression were performed to evaluate the associations between the health burden with socioeconomic levels and other national characteristics. Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test was used to investigate the gender disparity.ResultsGlobally, age-standardized DALY rates of refraction disorders decreased from 88.9 (95% UI: 60.5–120.3) in 1990 to 81.5 (95% UI: 55.0–114.8) in 2019, and might fall to 73.16 (95% UI: 67.81–78.51) by 2050. Age-standardized prevalence rates would also reduce to 1830 (95% UI: 1700–1960) by 2050, from 2080 (95% UI: 1870–2310) in 1990 to 1960 (95% UI: 1750–2180) in 2019. In low SDI region, age-standardized DALY rates (equation: Y = 114.05*X + 27.88) and prevalence rates (equation: Y = 3171.1*X + 403.2) were positively correlated with SDI in linear regression respectively. East Asia had the highest blindness rate caused by refraction disorders in terms of age-standardized DALY rates (11.20, 95% UI: 7.38–16.36). Gender inequality was found among different age groups and SDI regions.ConclusionHealth burden of refraction disorders decreased in recent years, and may continue to alleviate in the next three decades. Older ages, females and lower socioeconomic status were associated with higher refraction disorders health burden.

COVID-19 and health care workers burnout: A call for global action.

In recent years, increased administrative burden, productivity metrics and work-life imbalance have caused a high burnout rate amongst healthcare workers (HCW) [[1]Linzer M. Smith C.D. Hingle S. et al.Evaluation of work satisfaction, stress, and burnout among US internal medicine physicians and trainees.JAMA Netw Open. 2020; 3e2018758Crossref PubMed Scopus (18) Google Scholar]. A survey of 7500 physicians from 8 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic reveals that this burnout has reached an alarmingly high-rate [[2]Medscape US and International Physicians' COVID-19 Experience Report: Risk, Burnout, Loneliness. ( https://www.medscape.com/slideshow/2020-physician-covid-experience-6013151 ) Last accessed February 14th, 2021.Google Scholar]. HCW responsible for the care of COVID-19 patients are more likely to have depression, anxiety, and mental distress. Psychological distress from witnessing COVID- related deaths, deep despondency, and extra-long work hours are fueling HCW burnout at an exponential rate [[3]Chen R. Sun C. Chen J.J. et al.A large-scale survey on trauma, burnout, and posttraumatic growth among nurses during the COVID-19 pandemic.Int J Ment Health Nurs. 2021; 30: 102-116Crossref PubMed Scopus (184) Google Scholar]. Globally, HCW burnout may be reaching a tipping point with the second/third wave of the pandemic, new contagious, virulent mutant virus, the rising death toll, and slow vaccine rollout. Furthermore, this pandemic is acutely highlighting the damaging mental health consequences being faced by women in medicine and allowing gender inequity to flourish. Female physicians, especially in critical care and infectious disease specialties, have the highest rate of burnout. There are concerns that burned-out HCW can threaten the quality of health care delivered and patient safety. We cannot afford to passively observe unsustainable HCW burnout, which may impede our recovery from the pandemic and jeopardizes healthcare globally. Complacency to address burnout may lead HCW to leave for other careers or choose early retirement, which can endanger the future global supply of healthcare workforce. Lack of access to quality HCW has profound consequences for billions of people around the world, which already has a predicted shortfall of 18 million HCW by 2030 and could cost $47 trillion by the end of the decade [[4]Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.Lancet. 2018; 392: 1859-1922Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (1551) Google Scholar]. COVID-19 pandemic and lingering long-term apathy of burned-out healthcare workers toward patient care will accelerate these trends. What's at stake here is public health, globally. Therefore, the national governments, philanthropic and academic organizations, professional societies, hospitals should enact proactive policies, provide critical leadership and funding for burnout prevention programs. These programs should not only address acute burnout but strategize to promote the well-being of HCW. A gender-equitable perspective in these programs is essential for a healthy, modern world workforce. National and institutional leadership, policymakers, HCW need to work together to develop a comprehensive action plan. To avoid any disconnect in the evolution of policies, policymakers should work closely with the biomedical research community to understand scientific insights into burnout and its implications [[5]Yin Y. Gao J. Jones B.F. Wang D. Coevolution of policy and science during the pandemic.Science. 2021; 371: 128-130Crossref PubMed Scopus (35) Google Scholar]. Such collaborative effort will advance the science of burnout during this pandemic and better prepare us for the future. Politicians and policymakers should be pragmatic in supporting funding for burnout prevention programs, given that the health care workforce is an indispensable part of the economic growth and resilience of a nation.

Epidemic and control of COVID-19 in Niger: quantitative analyses in a least developed country.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic is challenging the public health response system worldwide, especially in poverty-stricken, war-torn, and least developed countries (LDCs).MethodsWe characterized the epidemiological features and spread dynamics of COVID-19 in Niger, quantified the effective reproduction number (Rt), evaluated the impact of public health control measures, and estimated the disease burden.ResultsAs of 4 July 2020, COVID-19 has affected 29 communes of Niger with 1093 confirmed cases, among whom 741 (67.8%) were males. Of them 89 cases died, resulting in a case fatality rate (CFR) of 8.1%. Both attack rates and CFRs were increased with age (P < 0.0001). Health care workers accounted for 12.8% cases. Among the reported cases, 39.3% were isolated and treated at home, and 42.3% were asymptomatic. 74.6% cases were clustered in Niamey, the capital of Niger. The Rt fluctuated in correlation to control measures at different outbreak stages. After the authorities initiated the national response and implemented the strictest control measures, Rt quickly dropped to below the epidemic threshold (<1), and maintained low level afterward. The national disability-adjusted life years attributable to COVID-19 was 1267.38 years in total, of which years of life lost accounted for over 99.1%.ConclusionsClassic public health control measures such as prohibition of public gatherings, travelling ban, contact tracing, and isolation and quarantine at home, are proved to be effective to contain the outbreak in Niger, and provide guidance for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in LDCs.

The burden of tuberculosis and attributable risk factors in Brazil, 1990\u20132017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) continues to be an important cause of fatal and non-fatal burden in Brazil. In this study, we present estimates for TB burden in Brazil from 1990 to 2017 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017).MethodsThis descriptive study used GBD 2017 findings to report years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB in Brazil by sex, age group, HIV status, and Brazilian states, from 1990 to 2017. We also present the TB burden attributable to independent risk factors such as smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Results are reported in absolute number and age-standardized rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsIn 2017, the number of DALYs due to TB (HIV-negative and HIV-positive combined) in Brazil was 284,323 (95% UI: 240,269–349,265). Among HIV-negative individuals, the number of DALYs was 196,366 (95% UI: 189,645–202,394), while 87,957 DALYs (95% UI: 50,624–146,870) were estimated among HIV-positive individuals. Between 1990 and 2017, the absolute number and age-standardized rates of DALYs due to TB at the national level decreased by 47.0% and 68.5%, respectively. In 2017, the sex–age-specific TB burden was highest among males and in children under-1 year and the age groups 45–59 years. The Brazilian states with the highest age-standardized DALY rates in 2017 were Rio de Janeiro, Pernambuco, and Amazonas. Age-standardized DALY rates decreased for all 27 Brazilian states between 1990 and 2017. Alcohol use accounted for 47.5% of national DALYs due to TB among HIV-negative individuals in 2017, smoking for 17.9%, and diabetes for 7.7%.ConclusionsGBD 2017 results show that, despite the remarkable progress in reducing the DALY rates during the period, TB remains as an important and preventable cause of health lost to due premature death and disability in Brazil. The findings reinforce the importance of strengthening TB control strategies in Brazil through integrated and multisectoral actions that enable the access to prevention, early diagnosis, and timely treatment, with emphasis on high-risk groups and populations most vulnerable to the disease in the country.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

SummaryBackgroundHow long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population’s state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years.MethodsWe used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males.FindingsGlobally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1–7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3–65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7–73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0–5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3–12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1–33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8–15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9–6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6–59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5–65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4–4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8–11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4–1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9–64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9–65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9–25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9–32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5–57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6–2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9–12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4–78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8–75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7–50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1–45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8–43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9–51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8–43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0–20·2).InterpretationWith increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Age-sex specific and sequela-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to dental caries preventable through water fluoridation: An assessment at the national and subnational levels in Iran, 2016

We assessed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to dental caries preventable through water fluoridation apportioned by sex, age group, sequela, province, and community type in Iran, 2016. The burden of disease due to dental caries was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD 2016) and the caries preventive effect of water fluoridation was calculated using a database of fluoride levels in drinking water. All the preventable DALYs were caused by years lived with disability (YLDs) because of the non-fatal character of dental caries. DALYs and DALY rate (per 100,000 people) preventable through water fluoridation at the national level in 2016 were 14,971 (95% uncertainty interval 7348– 24,725) and 18.73 (9.19–30.93), respectively. The national population preventable fraction (PPF) of dental caries by water fluoridation was determined to be as high as 0.176 (0.141–0.189). The share of sequelae in the preventable DALYs at the national level were estimated to be 76.8% for edentulism and severe tooth loss, 21.4% for caries of permanent teeth, and 1.8% for caries of deciduous teeth. The national DALYs and DALY rate preventable through water fluoridation exhibited no difference by sex, but considerably increased by age from 110 (37−223) and 1.5 (0.5–3.1) for the age group 0–4 y to 4331 (2334–6579) and 88.9 (47.9–135.1) for the age group 65 y and older, respectively. Over 80% of the national preventable DALYs occurred in urban areas due to higher population and lower coverage of fluoridated drinking water. The highest provincial DALYs and DALY rate preventable by water fluoridation were observed in Tehran and Gilan to be 3776 (1866–6206) and 37.2 (18.6–60.8), respectively. The results indicated that water fluoridation can play a profound role in the promotion of dental public health and compensate the spatial inequality and increasing temporal trend of health losses from dental caries at the national level.

National and subnational mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to 17 occupational risk factors in Iran, 1990–2015

We estimated age-sex specific and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to 17 individual occupational risks in Iran at the national and subnational levels in 1990–2015 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015). The burden of disease attributable to occupational risk factors was calculated using the comparative risk assessment methodology based on 10 outcomes and 21 risk-outcome pairs. The temporal changes in the attributable burden of disease were decomposed into the contribution of population growth, population ageing, risk-deleted DALY rate, and risk exposure. National DALYs attributable to occupational risks at the national level in 1990, 2005, and 2015 were 138,210 (95% uncertainty interval 64,429–223,028), 193,243 (91,645–310,281), and 228,310 (106,782–371,709), respectively indicating a total increase of 65% (65–67) during the study period. Between 1990 and 2015, the share of the attributable DALYs for women rose by 55% (51–58) from 13% (12–14) to 20% (19–21). The proportion of YLLs in national DALYs attributable to occupational risks during the study period slightly decreased from 24% in 1990 to 23% in 2015. The five occupational risks with the highest contributions in the national attributable DALYs in 2015 were ergonomic factors (107,490), noise (52,122), exposure to particulate matter, gases, and fumes (26,847), asthmagens (19,347), and exposure to asbestos (7842). From 1990 to 2015, the increase in total DALYs attributable to occupational carcinogens (112%) was higher than that for other occupational risks. During the study period, changes in risk deleted DALY rate and risk exposure led to decreases in total DALYs attributable to occupational risks by 14% and 30%, respectively. Based on the Gini coefficient, spatial inequality in DALY rate attributable to occupational risks at the provincial level decreased during 1990–2015. A comprehensive plan for management of exposure to occupational risks, especially occupational carcinogens can cause an important effect for control of the increasing trend of occupational health losses.

The Global Spine Care Initiative: a summary of the global burden of low back and neck pain studies.

This article summarizes relevant findings related to low back and neck pain from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) reports for the purpose of informing the Global Spine Care Initiative. We reviewed and summarized back and neck pain burden data from two studies that were published in Lancet in 2016, namely: "Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015" and "Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015." In 2015, low back and neck pain were ranked the fourth leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally just after ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infection {low back and neck pain DALYs [thousands]: 94 941.5 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 67 745.5-128 118.6]}. In 2015, over half a billion people worldwide had low back pain and more than a third of a billion had neck pain of more than 3 months duration. Low back and neck pain are the leading causes of years lived with disability in most countries and age groups. Low back and neck pain prevalence and disability have increased markedly over the past 25years and will likely increase further with population aging. Spinal disorders should be prioritized for research funding given the huge and growing global burden. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

SummaryBackgroundMeasurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).MethodsWe used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate.FindingsThe highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9–78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8–75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0–49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0–44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97–6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74–6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08–6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61–1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69–2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (–2·3% [–5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally.InterpretationAt a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

National disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 257 diseases and injuries in Ethiopia, 1990\u20132015: findings from the global burden of disease study 2015

BackgroundDisability-adjusted life years (DALYs) provide a summary measure of health and can be a critical input to guide health systems, investments, and priority-setting in Ethiopia. We aimed to determine the leading causes of premature mortality and disability using DALYs and describe the relative burden of disease and injuries in Ethiopia.MethodsWe used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for non-fatal disease burden, cause-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality to derive age-standardized DALYs by sex for Ethiopia for each year. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for each age group and sex. Causes of death by age, sex, and year were measured mainly using Causes of Death Ensemble modeling. To estimate YLDs, a Bayesian meta-regression method was used. We reported DALY rates per 100,000 for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases, and injuries, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia.ResultsNon-communicable diseases caused 23,118.1 (95% UI, 17,124.4–30,579.6), CMNN disorders resulted in 20,200.7 (95% UI, 16,532.2–24,917.9), and injuries caused 3781 (95% UI, 2642.9–5500.6) age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 in Ethiopia in 2015. Lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, and tuberculosis were the top three leading causes of DALYs in 2015, accounting for 2998 (95% UI, 2173.7–4029), 2592.5 (95% UI, 1850.7–3495.1), and 2562.9 (95% UI, 1466.1–4220.7) DALYs per 100,000, respectively. Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were the fourth and fifth leading causes of age-standardized DALYs, with rates of 2535.7 (95% UI, 1603.7–3843.2) and 2159.9 (95% UI, 1369.7–3216.3) per 100,000, respectively. The following causes showed a reduction of 60% or more over the last 25 years: lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, tuberculosis, neonatal encephalopathy, preterm birth complications, meningitis, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, iron-deficiency anemia, measles, war and legal intervention, and maternal hemorrhage.ConclusionsEthiopia has been successful in reducing age-standardized DALYs related to most communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases in the last 25 years, causing a major ranking shift to types of non-communicable disease. Lower respiratory infections, diarrheal disease, and tuberculosis continue to be leading causes of premature death, despite major declines in burden. Non-communicable diseases also showed reductions as premature mortality declined; however, disability outcomes for these causes did not show declines. Recently developed non-communicable disease strategies may need to be amended to focus on cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, and major depressive disorders. Increasing trends of disabilities due to neonatal encephalopathy, preterm birth complications, and neonatal disorders should be emphasized in the national newborn survival strategy. Generating quality data should be a priority through the development of new initiatives such as vital events registration, surveillance programs, and surveys to address gaps in data. Measuring disease burden at subnational regional state levels and identifying variations with urban and rural population health should be conducted to support health policy in Ethiopia.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackgroundHealthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.MethodsWe used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.FindingsTotal global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9–3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4–3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78–0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1–1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.InterpretationHealth is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.