National Climate Change Strategy Research Articles

Paving Paths to 2050: Mapping the Mexican Power Sector’s Potential to Build Sustainable Futures

A prospective analysis of the Mexican power system has been carried out, and the possibilities for complying with the National Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments adopted in the Paris Agreement in the National Climate Change Strategy of the General Law for Climate Change are presented. A hybrid approach was used, inspired by Foresight Frameworks on one side, and using an accounting and scenario-based modeling platform called Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) with economic optimization on the other, to analyze four possible scenarios to 2050: Trend, also known as Business As Usual (BAU), which only looks at the growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) and population, along with the country’s proven potential for renewable resources under the policy framework before 2015; Market, which considers the trend of installation of renewable technologies and the policies of the past administration; Sovereignty, which does the same as the previous scenario but for the policies of the current Mexican government; and Sustainable, which together with GDP and population growth takes into account the possible potential of national renewable resources and characteristics that the country should have to foster this. The research question was: Is there a long-term energy policy for the Mexican power sector to accomplish its NDCs? The study concluded that the best scenario is Sustainable, showing that the possible potential of the country’s renewable resources has the capacity to meet the Mexican commitments adopted in the Paris Agreement if, on one side, techno-economic renewable technologies and electricity storage systems are used, and on the other, if the country’s strategic areas evolve into a more holistically sustainable future.

Climate justice in Vietnam’s green transformation: A three-dimensional analysis of the green growth and climate change mitigation sectors

Vietnam has been making great strides in promoting a low-carbon development pathway to ensure high growth rates, environmental protection, and fulfilment of international climate change commitments. These efforts are concretized in the form of a green transformation policy framework of which the most important components are the National Green Growth Strategy for the period 2021-2030 and the National Climate Change Strategy for the period up to 2050. As these policies employ an integrated approach that aim to achieve economic growth and climate change mitigation simultaneously, there is a possibility that the social pillar of sustainable development may be neglected, potentially leading to issues with equity and fairness in planning and implementing concrete missions and tasks. This article seeks to determine whether this is the case by assessing how three dimensions of climate justice -namely recognition justice, procedural justice and distributive justice - are reflected in the Green Growth and Climate Change Strategies.

Prioritizing climate adaptation at the local level in Ghana

<abstract> <p>The increasing intensity and frequency of climate impacts exacerbate pressures on front-line local communities. This calls for location-specific adaptation strategies. Alignment of strategies with respective National Climate Change Strategy is key for the overall sustainability of initiatives and local communities. The work presented in this paper examines the adoption and prioritization of climate adaptation policies at the local level based on a case study of the Adansi North District (AND) in Ghana. An assessment of the extent to which climate adaptation policies are captured and budgeted for was done via a review of the district’s medium-term development and key political actors were interviewed to assess the level of priority they place on climate adaptation. Findings from the study reveal that 41% of the locally adopted policies directly align with stipulated national level policies. We attribute the adoption of climate policies in AND to local political actors having higher education which has afforded them good understanding of the climate change phenomenon, being experienced professionals and having to work within institutional rubrics that make climate policy formulation a requirement. However, little priority is given to these policies for implementation, mainly through the non-allocation of funds. We account for this with the weak environmental advocacy in the district and exchange between actors on adaptation. Furthermore, partisan actors who already wield veto powers and can promote policies that may not necessarily support adaptation measures, often do so, since their interest is to become popular among electorates who also prefer infrastructure over environmental policies. We conclude that although climate adaptation policies are fairly adopted and budgeted for in AND, they have not received commensurate priority for implementation. Recommendations are proposed for addressing this.</p> </abstract>

Climate Change Considerations in Public Procurement and Concessions in Bulgaria (Part I)

This article is the first part of a wider study on the climate change aspects in Bulgaria’s regulatory and policy framework for public procurement and concessions. In Part I, the authors first define, then review climate change and its potential effect on public procurement, including concessions. The present article outlines the expected climate changes in Bulgaria for the next 50 years and provides an overview of national climate change strategies and action plans that could affect procurement. As part of the analysis, we refer to relevant legal instruments at national, international and European Union (EU) levels, and consider their respective potential to accommodate the shifts in weather patterns and changes in temperatures. The Bulgarian procurement and concessions legislation is reviewed with reference to relevant EU procurement directives. Part I of the study focuses on climate change as an element of the wider category of environmental considerations, at the preparation stage of a typical whole-cycle procurement model. In the conclusion of the present article, the authors briefly outline the research agenda of the upcoming Part II. Keywords: climate change; environment; procurement; concessions; Bulgaria

When threat is imminent, does character matter for climate action? Exploring environmental concerns, well-being, and character strengths in the Pacific Island Countries

Pacific Island Countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental and economic consequences of climate change including both direct and indirect impacts on individuals’ mental health. There is a need to better understand the links between environmental attitudes, pro-environmental behaviours, and well-being in this region and to develop cost-effective, culturally informed interventions. The present study explored the level of environmental concerns and attitudes among Pacific Island university students and how this relates to their overall well-being, the nature of their current pro-environmental actions, and the potential for individuals’ character strengths to predict pro-environmental attitudes. College students ( n = 269) from six Pacific Island Countries completed a survey measuring their character strengths, well-being, and environmental support. As expected, the young adults had very high levels of concern about environmental threats, and this was related to their overall well-being. The young adults felt a personal responsibility to protect the environments around their local communities, which suggests national climate change strategies should be embedded within this localised context. Character strengths were highly valued among the Pacific Island sample and showed some association with (specifically) support for environmental actions and policies. Given the high levels of environmental concern in the sample, the character strengths approach likely provides a bridge between emotional engagement and active allyship in some individuals. Therefore, further research should investigate the role of character strengths in empowering pacific students to play a more leading role in policy change.

Strengthening Health Systems for Climate Adaptation and Health Security: Key Considerations for Policy and Programming.

Strengthening Health Systems for Climate Adaptation and Health Security: Key Considerations for Policy and Programming.

Indigenous knowledge and innovative practices to cope with impacts of climate change on small-scale farming in Limpopo Province, South Africa

PurposeThis paper aims to describe the indigenous and innovative practices adopted by the small-scale farmers to cope with the impacts of climate change hazards on subsistence farming.Design/methodology/approachThe data were collected through focus group discussions with 72 small-scale farmers from a rural community in Limpopo Province, South Africa. The discussions were analysed through verbatim transcripts and content analysis.FindingsThe study results show the farmers’ understanding of climate change variability and its hazards in the form of rainfall scarcity and excessively increased temperature, which are responsible for a declining production of indigenous crops. It has also been found that in the face of these hazards, the farmers experience low crop yields, which cannot provide the household food requirements. However, the small-scale farmers use a combination of local and innovative knowledge and skills to improve their crop production. They have adopted the indigenous adaptation mechanisms, which include rainfall prediction, preparation of the gardens, change of crops and the planting season to ensure better crop yields. The farmers also adopted innovative adaptation practices such as the use of fertilisers, growing of exotic crops and use of extension officers’ guidance and skills to minimise the risks and maximise the chances of resilient crop production.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper describes the farmers’ ability to use the indigenous and innovative adaptation practices. It is only focused on the farmers’ knowledge and skills other than the extension officers’ skills.Originality/valueThe adaptation practices reported in the study fall within the adaptation and mitigation systems stipulated in the South African National Climate Change Strategy to assist the small-scale farmers grow and maintain the crops to improve production and minimise the risks, thus ensuring food security under observable harsh climate hazards.

Technology needs assessment for climate change adaptation: Experiences of Mauritius and Seychelles

Besides access to climate finance and capacity building, developing countries, comprised mainly of least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS) have negotiated for increased technology transfer to support their climate change adaptation. The Global Environment Facility has been supporting LDCs and SIDS to develop technology needs assessments (TNAs) to leverage international climate finance, and 62 countries have conducted a TNA to date. Ten SIDS are currently completing their TNAs, and 9 more will start the process in 2021. The focus of this paper is on in-country processes that have not received much attention to date. We find that an efficient TNA process is characterized by the adoption of an inclusive multi-stakeholder process, using existing institutional structures to increase ownership, and applying a learning-by-doing approach. An effective TNA process supports the formulation of national climate change policies and strategies and importantly enables the country to leverage international climate finance. For the latter, an effective TNA should address more closely the investment criteria of the Green Climate Fund. The lessons learned are shared to better inform forthcoming TNA processes in SIDS.

Do National Policies Translate into Local Actions? Analyzing Coherence between Climate Change Adaptation Policies and Implications for Local Adaptation in Nepal

National climate change policy and strategies set out a framework for planning and undertaking climate change adaptation as well as mitigation activities at the national and local levels. In this article, we examine the coherence and contradictions between national policies and plans, and its impacts on the implementation of adaptation measures at the local level. We undertook a content review of key climate change policy documents (n = 4) of Nepal. In addition, we conducted a field study in the Rajdevi Community Forest User Group (CFUG) located in the mid-hills of Nepal, which has developed and implemented a community level adaptation plan of action (CAPA). The field study involved household interviews, focus group discussions, and an in-depth analysis of CAPA implementation. The paper found that while policies are coherent for targeting highly affected areas and communities, they deviate from discerning an appropriate planning and implanting unit. The local adaptation plan of action (LAPA) considers the local government as an implementing unit, while the national adaptation program of action (NAPA) puts an emphasis on the local community groups. It suggests that the existing LAPA implementation breaches the provision of community-level institutions for the implementation conceived in the central framework. Despite little attention to promoting food security in climate change policy, through the CAPA, local communities have planned and implemented adaptation measures envisioned in the thematic areas identified in the climate change policy of Nepal: agriculture and food security; forests and biodiversity; water resources and energy; climate-induced disasters; public health; and urban settlements and infrastructure. Nevertheless, the CAPA is not institutionalized under government policies and the institutional framework as a local level implementing unit. So, the consensus for a local implementing unit in the policies has remained a key issue. We suggest identifying a suitable and acceptable unit for implementing climate change adaptation at the community level. Only if an appropriate implementing unit is identified can the policies be successful with a broader acceptance and desirable outcomes enshrined in the climate change policy.

Are We Missing the Opportunity of Low-Carbon Lifestyles? International Climate Policy Commitments and Demand-Side Gaps

Current commitments in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are insufficient to remain within the 2-degree climate change limit agreed to in the Paris Agreement. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that lifestyle changes are now necessary to stay within the limit. We reviewed a range of NDCs and national climate change strategies to identify inclusion of low-carbon lifestyles. We found that most NDCs and national climate change strategies do not yet include the full range of necessary mitigation measures targeting lifestyle change, particularly those that could reduce indirect emissions. Some exceptional NDCs, such as those of Austria, Slovakia, Portugal and the Netherlands, do include lifestyle changes, such as low-carbon diets, reduced material consumption, and low-carbon mobility. Most countries focus on supply-side measures with long lag times and might miss the window of opportunity to shape low-carbon lifestyle patterns, particularly those at early stages of development trajectories. Systemic barriers exist that should be corrected before new NDCs are released, including changing the accounting and reporting methodology, accounting for extraterritorial emissions, providing guidance on NDC scope to include the menu of options identified by the IPCC, and increasing support for national level studies to design demand-side policies.

Producing climate boundary maps using GIS interface model designed with Python

Climate and its effects need to be examined within a more planned and comprehensive framework to prevent the unfavorable impact of climate change. Thus, climate effects on the ecosystem can be identified by determining the geographical boundaries of different climate types. The Köppen, Trewartha, Thornthwaite, Erinc, Aydeniz, De Martonne, and De Martonne–Gottman methods are used in the classification of climates. These methods enable the regional differences of climate types to be determined and their changes over the years to be examined. A number of studies examining climate classes have produced graphic findings and maps. The absence of new approaches has resulted in climate classifications still being carried out via manual studies. However, a program for identifying and representing these methods in a convenient, fast, and automated way could facilitate the completion of analyses in a shorter time. The programming languages developed in recent years have made it easy to design interface models that can perform analyses faster and easier than prolonged manual methods. In this study, a climate boundary determination interface model, designed using the Python programming language, was developed for use in the ArcGIS 10.6 program to determine geographical climate boundaries automatically. The provinces of Artvin, Ordu, Rize, Trabzon, Giresun, Bayburt, and Samsun (Turkey) were chosen as the study area to test the interface model. The resulting interface model design is expected to: (1) address the dimensions of climate change in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change studies; (2) identify the climate changes in our country as an objective of the National Climate Change Strategy; and (3) determine the land-use changes caused by climate boundaries and examine the ownership dimension of the adaptation process in the declaration published by the International Geodesy Federation in 2014.

ГЛОБАЛЬНОЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ КЛИМАТА: ТЕНДЕНЦИИ И ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ ДЛЯ ВЬЕТНАМА

The modern scientific theory of global climate change has been developing for several decades, tens of thousands of scientific articles have been published. Climate change and its impacts are already visible in many parts of the world, and coastal areas are highly vulnerable to these changes. The Vietnamese government has foreseen the impact of climate change and has already taken various measures to control the impact of coastal hazards. However, with 3,200 km of coastline, Vietnam still suffers severely from damage caused by floods, erosion and typhoons each year. In addition, most of Vietnam's coastal areas are below 1 m in height, making them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and associated sea level rise. This article is devoted to the description of the consequences of climate change for Vietnam and analyzes their impact on the socio — economic and demographic situation of the country. The analysis of Vietnam's National Climate Change Strategy for the period 2011-2020 is presented. The study found that Vietnam faces potentially significant social and economic impacts in many regions and sectors. Without effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction efforts, multidimensional poverty and inequality are likely to increase.

Long-Term Land Use Land Cover Change in Urban Centers of Southwest Ethiopia From a Climate Change Perspective

Long-term urban land use land cover change (LULCC) dynamics and climate change trends in Southwest Ethiopia's four urban centers were examined for 60 years. Remote sensing, aerial photos, and Landsat, temperature, and rainfall data were analyzed from a climate change perspective over the Jimma, Bedelle, Bonga, and Sokorru urban centers of southwest Ethiopia from 1953 to 2018. Based on geospatial analysis and maximum likelihood supervised image classification techniques to classify LULCC categories, the Mann-Kendall test was applied to perform trend analyses on temperature and rainfall. The LULCC analysis revealed that built-up areas over the urban centers had shown an increasing trend, with the highest increment by 2,360 hectares over Jimma, while vegetation, wetland, and cropland declined due to conversion of plain lands to built-up areas and other similar zones. The pronounced decline of vegetation coverage was 1,427, 185,116, and 32 hectares in Jimma, Bedelle, Bonga, and Sokorru, respectively. Mann-Kendall test results showed a significant sign of intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall while the summer and annual rainfall patterns remained less variable compared to other seasons. This study's findings revealed that when the mean between the two climatic normals of 1953–86 is compared with 1987–2018, the temperature has significantly increased in the latter three decades. The rapid expansion of built-up areas coupled with a sharp decline of green space or vegetation and agricultural/croplands could lead to gradual changes in LULCC classes, which have contributed to the changing of the local climate, especially the surface temperature and rainfall over the urban centers of southwest Ethiopia. Therefore, we recommend that the local urban administrations emphasize sustainable urban development by integrating urban planning policies with land use to protect the environment by adopting local municipal adaptation and national climate change strategies. Restoration of the local environment and creation of climate-smart cities could be critical to the resilience of urban dwellers and ecosystems to the changing climate by enhancing grass-root climate services. To that end, we recommend further advanced research to understand how urban LULC-related changes and other factors contribute to local and regional climates, as urban areas of Southwest Ethiopia are undergoing a rapid transformation of their rural surroundings.

Developing a Set of Criteria for Prioritising GHG Emission Reduction Measures in Metallurgical Sector

Prioritizing climate change mitigation measures could help to identify most feasible or most nationally appropriated mitigation actions. This process can also provide important inputs for the development of national climate change strategies or policies. The paper applies Delphi method to prioritize criteria for potential climate change mitigation technology in the metallurgical sector in Vietnam. The consultation process has been done with ten experts in only two cycle to reach Kendall (W) value over 0.5. Then, 11 out of 21 criteria have been selected for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in prioritizing mitigation options in iron and steel, lead, zinc, tin and aluminium productions. Mitigation options with highest scores will be proposed for mitigation target of the metallurgical sector which could be inputs for NDC of industrial sector. The selected criteria include 01 indicator in emission reduction (GPT1), 01 indicator in environmental impacts (MT1), 01 indicators in social impacts (XH3), 02 indicators in economic impacts (KT1, KT2), 02 indicators in sustainable development impacts (PTBV1, PTBV2) and 04 indicators in MRV (MRV1, MRV2, MRV3, MRV4).

Inventario de gases de efecto invernadero: Distrito central de Puntarenas (Costa Rica)

En el 2018 el MINAE (Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía de Costa Rica) oficializó el PPCN 2.0, en respuesta a la Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático. En el distrito central de Puntarenas, la UTN lidera los esfuerzos para la elaboración de los Inventario de gases de efecto invernadero. Para ello se siguió la metodología descrita en el PPCN 2.0; se calcularon las emisiones del transporte y la energía estacionaria (consumo de combustibles fósiles y electricidad), residuos sólidos y aguas residuales. Para obtener la información requerida, se emitieron solicitudes de información a actores claves del distrito y se aplicó una encuesta al sector residencial y al sector comercial e industrial. Se utilizaron además los factores de emisión y potenciales de calentamiento global del IMN. Finalmente, se obtuvieron emisiones de 83618,27 ton CO2e para el año 2016 y 79053,66 ton CO2e para el año 2017, donde el mayor aporte es representado por el consumo de combustibles fósiles en la actividad pesquera y el transporte.

Quantifying the impacts of defaunation on natural forest regeneration in a global meta-analysis

Intact forests provide diverse and irreplaceable ecosystem services that are critical to human well-being, such as carbon storage to mitigate climate change. However, the ecosystem functions that underpin these services are highly dependent on the woody vegetation-animal interactions occurring within forests. While vertebrate defaunation is of growing policy concern, the effects of vertebrate loss on natural forest regeneration have yet to be quantified globally. Here we conduct a meta-analysis to assess the direction and magnitude of defaunation impacts on forests. We demonstrate that real-world defaunation caused by hunting and habitat fragmentation leads to reduced forest regeneration, although manipulation experiments provide contrasting findings. The extirpation of primates and birds cause the greatest declines in forest regeneration, emphasising their key role in maintaining carbon stores, and the need for national and international climate change and conservation strategies to protect forests from defaunation fronts as well as deforestation fronts.

Low-Carbon Quick Wins: Integrating Short-Term Sustainable Transport Options in Climate Policy in Low-Income Countries

In low income countries (LICs) in Africa and Asia per capita transport greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low but are expected to grow. Therefore, a substantial reduction in projected increases is required to bring emissions in line with long-term global climate objectives. Literature on how LICs are integrating climate change mitigation and sustainable transport strategies is limited. Key drivers of transport policy include improving accessibility, congestion, air quality, energy security, with reducing greenhouse gas emissions being of lower priority. This paper assesses the current status, feasibility and potential of selected low-carbon transport measures with high sustainable development benefits that can be implemented in the short to medium term, so- called ‘quick wins’. It examines to what extent ten such quick wins are integrated in climate change strategies in nine low- and middle-income countries in Africa and South Asia. The research method comprises expert interviews, an online questionnaire survey of experts and policymakers in the focus countries, and a review of literature and government plans. Results indicate that sustainable urban transport policies and measures are considered high priority, with vehicle-related measures such as fuel quality and fuel economy standards and electric two- and three-wheelers being of key relevance. In existing national climate change strategies, these quick wins are integrated to a certain extent; however, with better coordination between transport and energy and environment agencies such strategies can be improved. A general conclusion of this paper is that for LICs, quick wins can connect a ‘top-down’ climate perspective with a ‘bottom-up’ transport sector perspective. A knowledge gap exists as to the mitigation potential and sustainable development benefits of these quick wins in the local context of LICs.

Investigation of Climate Vulnerability of Domestic Natural and Artificial Ecosystems

The climate change, the increase of average temperature, the changing of precipitation and its distribution, the increase of frequency of extreme weather events have significant effects on all ecosystems. The most vulnerable are the natural ecosystems. In case of forest the climate change causes large changes in the spatial distribution of tree species and that these changes may be associated with significant tree mortality, forest decline, and loss of forest cover. The climate change affects the properties of soil and because the soil is Hungary’s natural water reservoir of the largest water storage capacity. thus is important task to keep its properties. In the Hungarian agriculture is the drought that causes the highest losses, and it is followed by frost damage and water damage. The adaptation and mitigation were discussed on the basis of the National Forest Strategy and the Second National Climate Change Strategy 2014–25 with an Outlook until 2050.

Consequences of the National Energy Strategy in the Mexican Energy System: Analyzing Strategic Indicators with an Optimization Energy Model

This paper presents an approach to the assessment of the Mexican energy system’s evolution under the climate and energy objectives set by the National Climate Change Strategy using an energy optimization model. Some strategic indicators have been chosen to analyze the performance of three integration elements: sustainability, efficiency, and energy security. Two scenarios have been defined in the medium and long-term: the business as usual scenario, with no energy or climate targets, and the National Climate Change Strategy scenario, where clean energy technologies and CO2 emissions objectives are considered. The aim of this work is the analysis of some of those strategic indicators’ evolution using the EUROfusion Times Model. Results show that reaching the strategy targets leads to improvements in the integration elements in the medium and long term. Besides, meeting the CO2 emission limits is achievable in terms of technologies and resources availability but at a high cost, while clean technologies targets are met with no extra costs even in the business as usual scenario.

National climate change mitigation legislation, strategy and targets: a global update

ABSTRACTGlobal climate change governance has changed substantially in the last decade, with a shift in focus from negotiating globally agreed greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets to nationally determined contributions, as enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. This paper analyses trends in adoption of national climate legislation and strategies, GHG targets, and renewable and energy efficiency targets in almost all UNFCCC Parties, focusing on the period from 2007 to 2017. The uniqueness and added value of this paper reside in its broad sweep of countries, the more than decade-long coverage and the use of objective metrics rather than normative judgements. Key results show that national climate legislation and strategies witnessed a strong increase in the first half of the assessed decade, likely due to the political lead up to the Copenhagen Climate Conference in 2009, but have somewhat stagnated in recent years, currently covering 70% of global GHG emissions (almost 50% of countries). In comparison, the coverage of GHG targets increased considerably in the run up to adoption of the Paris Agreement and 89% of global GHG emissions are currently covered by such targets. Renewable energy targets saw a steady spread, with 79% of the global GHG emissions covered in 2017 compared to 45% in 2007, with a steep increase in developing countries.Key policy insightsThe number of countries that have national legislation and strategies in place increased strongly up to 2012, but the increase has levelled off in recent years, now covering 70% of global emissions by 2017 (48% of countries and 76% of global population).Economy-wide GHG reduction targets witnessed a strong increase in the build up to 2015 and are adopted by countries covering 89% of global GHG emissions (76% not counting USA) and 90% of global population (86% not counting USA) in 2017.Renewable energy targets saw a steady increase throughout the last decade with coverage of countries in 2017 comparable to that of GHG targets.Key shifts in national measures coincide with landmark international events – an increase in legislation and strategy in the build-up to the Copenhagen Climate Conference and an increase in targets around the Paris Agreement – emphasizing the importance of the international process to maintaining national momentum.