National Center Of Atmospheric Research Research Articles

Analysis of the typhoon wave distribution simulated in WAVEWATCH- III model in the context of Kuroshio and wind-induced current

To investigate the relationship between surface currents and wave distributions in typhoons, we took the Typhoon Talim in 2017 as a case, and found that the track of the typhoon winds up to 50 m/s was almost consistent with the Kuroshio track, particularly from September 13 to 16, 2017. The surface current data, derived from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) from the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), revealed that the speed of the wind-induced current exceeded that of the Kuroshio in the region with the maximum wind speed. In this study, was utilized a third-generation numeric wave model, WAVEWATCH-III (the latest version 5.16), developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to simulate the wave fields of Typhoon Talim using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis wind data in 0.125°×0.125° grid as the forcing field. We found that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the significant wave height (SWH) was 0.34 m when validated against measurements from altimeter Jason-2. In addition, we discovered that the SWH had a similar tendency to the change in the surface current speed that was approximately 0.5 m/s at the beginning of Typhoon Talim. However, the relationship became weak as the surface current speed was below 0.2 m/s. Our findings show that the distribution of typhoon waves is resulted from the interaction of surface current and the wind-sea portion of the wave system, since the distribution pattern of wind-sea is consistent with the surface current, and there is a weak relationship between surface current and swell.

Middle atmosphere dynamical sources of the semiannual oscillation in the thermosphere and ionosphere

AbstractThe strong global semiannual oscillation (SAO) in thermospheric density has been observed for five decades, but definitive knowledge of its source has been elusive. We use the National Center of Atmospheric Research thermosphere‐ionosphere‐mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME‐GCM) to study how middle atmospheric dynamics generate the SAO in the thermosphere‐ionosphere (T‐I). The “standard” TIME‐GCM simulates, from first principles, SAOs in thermospheric mass density and ionospheric total electron content that agree well with observed climatological variations. Diagnosis of the globally averaged continuity equation for atomic oxygen ([O]) shows that the T‐I SAO originates in the upper mesosphere, where an SAO in [O] is forced by nonlinear, resolved‐scale variations in the advective, net tidal, and diffusive transport of O. Contrary to earlier hypotheses, TIME‐GCM simulations demonstrate that intra‐annually varying eddy diffusion by breaking gravity waves may not be the primary driver of the T‐I SAO: A pronounced SAO is produced without parameterized gravity waves.

A decision tree algorithm for investigation of model biases related to dynamical cores and physical parameterizations.

An object‐based evaluation method using a pattern recognition algorithm (i.e., classification trees) is applied to the simulated orographic precipitation for idealized experimental setups using the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the finite volume (FV) and the Eulerian spectral transform dynamical cores with varying resolutions. Daily simulations were analyzed and three different types of precipitation features were identified by the classification tree algorithm. The statistical characteristics of these features (i.e., maximum value, mean value, and variance) were calculated to quantify the difference between the dynamical cores and changing resolutions. Even with the simple and smooth topography in the idealized setups, complexity in the precipitation fields simulated by the models develops quickly. The classification tree algorithm using objective thresholding successfully detected different types of precipitation features even as the complexity of the precipitation field increased. The results show that the complexity and the bias introduced in small‐scale phenomena due to the spectral transform method of CAM Eulerian spectral dynamical core is prominent, and is an important reason for its dissimilarity from the FV dynamical core. The resolvable scales, both in horizontal and vertical dimensions, have significant effect on the simulation of precipitation. The results of this study also suggest that an efficient and informative study about the biases produced by GCMs should involve daily (or even hourly) output (rather than monthly mean) analysis over local scales.

Poleward transport variability in the Northern Hemisphere during final stratospheric warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM)

AbstractObservational studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air masses can be advected to high latitudes and remain confined within a long‐lived “frozen‐in” anticyclone (FrIAC) for several months. It was suggested that the frequency of FrIACs may have increased since 2000 and that their interannual variability may be modulated by (i) the occurrence of major stratospheric warmings (mSSWs) in the preceding winter and (ii) the phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). In this study, we tested these observational‐based hypotheses for the first time using a chemistry climate model. Three 145 year sensitivity experiments were performed with the National Center of Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM): one control experiment including only natural variability, one with an extreme greenhouse gas emission scenario, and one without the QBO in the tropical stratosphere. In comparison with reanalysis, the model simulates a realistic frequency and characteristics of FrIACs, which occur under an abrupt and early winter‐to‐summer stratospheric circulation transition, driven by enhanced planetary wave activity. Furthermore, the model results support the suggestion that the development of FrIACs is favored by an easterly QBO in the middle stratosphere and by the absence of mSSWs during the preceding winter. The lower stratospheric persistence of background dynamical state anomalies induced by deep mSSWs leads to less favorable conditions for planetary waves to enter the high‐latitude stratosphere in April, which in turn decreases the probability of FrIAC development. Our model results do not suggest that climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) influence FrIAC occurrences.

An Object-Based Approach for Quantification of GCM Biases of the Simulation of Orographic Precipitation. Part II: Quantitative Analysis

Abstract An object-based evaluation method is applied to the simulated orographic precipitation for the idealized experimental setups using the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the finite volume (FV) and Eulerian spectral transform dynamical cores with varying resolutions. The method consists of the application of k-means cluster analysis to the precipitation features to determine their spatial boundaries and the calculation of the semivariograms (SVs) for the isolated features for evaluation. The quantitative analysis revealed differences between the simulated precipitation by the FV and Eulerian spectral transform models that are not visually apparent. The simulated large-scale precipitation features of the idealized test cases provide analogs to orographic precipitation features observed in simulations of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) models. The spatial boundaries of these features (determined by k-means clustering) for Eulerian spectral T85 and T170 resolutions revealed the level of merger between the two large-scale features simulated because of each peak in the double mountain idealized setup. Both FV 1° and 0.5° resolutions were able to simulate the dryer region between the two mountains. The SVs of precipitation for the single and double mountain setups show close agreement between FV 1°, FV 0.5°, and Eulerian spectral T170 resolutions; however, Eulerian spectral T85 simulated the precipitation in lower intensity, indicating the qualitative difference in resolutions previously determined to be equivalent. Such close agreement was not observed in the more realistic idealized setup.

An Object-Based Approach for Quantification of GCM Biases of the Simulation of Orographic Precipitation. Part I: Idealized Simulations

Abstract An object-based evaluation method to quantify biases of general circulation models (GCMs) is introduced using the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Idealized experiments with different topography are designed to reproduce the spatial characteristics of precipitation biases that were present in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations using the CAM finite volume (FV) and CAM Eulerian spectral dynamical cores. Precipitation features are identified as “objects” to understand the causes of the differences between CAM FV and CAM Eulerian spectral dynamical cores. Three different mechanisms of precipitation were simulated in idealized experiments: stable upslope ascent, local surface fluxes, and resolved downstream waves. The results indicated stronger sensitivity of the CAM Eulerian spectral dynamical core to resolution. The application of spectral filtering to topography is shown to have a large effect on the CAM Eulerian spectral model simulation. The removal of filtering improved the results when the scales of the topography were resolvable. However, it reduced the simulation capability of the CAM Eulerian spectral dynamical core because of Gibbs oscillations, leading to unusable results. A clear perspective about models biases is provided from the quantitative evaluation of objects extracted from these simulations and will be further discussed in part II of this study.

Using Ensemble of Neural Networks to Learn Stochastic Convection Parameterizations for Climate and Numerical Weather Prediction Models from Data Simulated by a Cloud Resolving Model

A novel approach based on the neural network (NN) ensemble technique is formulated and used for development of a NN stochastic convection parameterization for climate and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This fast parameterization is built based on learning from data simulated by a cloud-resolving model (CRM) initialized with and forced by the observed meteorological data available for 4-month boreal winter from November 1992 to February 1993. CRM-simulated data were averaged and processed to implicitly define a stochastic convection parameterization. This parameterization is learned from the data using an ensemble of NNs. The NN ensemble members are trained and tested. The inherent uncertainty of the stochastic convection parameterization derived following this approach is estimated. The newly developed NN convection parameterization has been tested in National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). It produced reasonable and promising decadal climate simulations for a large tropical Pacific region. The extent of the adaptive ability of the developed NN parameterization to the changes in the model environment is briefly discussed. This paper is devoted to a proof of concept and discusses methodology, initial results, and the major challenges of using the NN technique for developing convection parameterizations for climate and NWP models.

Assessment of Regional Global Climate Model Water Vapor Bias and Trends Using Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) Observations from a Network of Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) Receivers in the U.S. Great Plains and Midwest

Abstract Precipitable water vapor (PWV) observations from the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) SuomiNet networks of ground-based global positioning system (GPS) receivers and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Profiler Network (NPN) are used in the regional assessment of global climate models. Study regions in the U.S. Great Plains and Midwest highlight the differences among global climate model output from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario in their seasonal representation of column water vapor and the vertical distribution of moisture. In particular, the Community Climate System model, version 3 (CCSM3) is shown to exhibit a dry bias of over 30% in the summertime water vapor column, while the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E20 (GISS E20) agrees well with PWV observations. A detailed assessment of vertical profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and specific humidity confirm that only GISS E20 was able to represent the summertime specific humidity profile in the atmospheric boundary layer (<3%) and thus the correct total column water vapor. All models show good agreement in the winter season for the region. Regional trends using station-elevation-corrected GPS PWV data from two complimentary networks are found to be consistent with null trends predicted in the AR4 A2 scenario model output for the period 2000–09. The time to detect (TTD) a 0.05 mm yr−1 PWV trend, as predicted in the A2 scenario for the period 2000–2100, is shown to be 25–30 yr with 95% confidence in the Oklahoma–Kansas region.

Mesoscale wind speed simulation using CALMET model and reanalysis information: An application to wind potential

Abstract This work presents a simple methodology to simulate the mesoscale wind field using dynamic modeling and complementary meteorological data. Meteorological information obtained from the project developed by the National Center of Environmental Research (NCEP) and the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), meteorological stations, a digital elevation model and a land use data were used in this study. All these data were input for the simulation of wind fields at three different heights (20, 30 and 40 m) through the CALMET model. Simulations were made for an area corresponding to the south central region of Chile, known as the Maule Region. The results show that the simulated spatial resolution (1 × 1 km) in the CALMET model yields good results, yielding an RMSE value near 1 m s−1 for all the heights simulated, with a greater RMSE at 40 m (1.15 m s−1) and a lesser RMSE at 20 m (1.10 m s−1). The direction of the simulated wind fields was also evaluated, yielding an RMSE near 31° at 40 m. The determination of the wind potential is presented as a direct application of the method shown in this work.

Simulation of Wind Circulation and Pollutant Diffusion Over the Pearl River Delta Region

Changes in urban surface areas and population growth have significantly affected the weather and environment. Emissions of nitrogen oxides are increasing in the Pearl River Delta region. Nitrogen compounds emitted by factories and motor vehicles are the major sources of nitric pollution. To study the impacts of urbanization and the relationship between pollutant diffusion and the atmospheric environment, the nonhydrostatic mesoscale forecast model MM5 (v3.73), which was developed by Penn State University and the National Center of Atmospheric Research, and a mass continuity equation for air pollutants, were used in this study. Two experiments were designed. One experiment (BE) applied horizontal grid resolutions of 27, 9, 3, and 1 km in four nested domains. The other experiment adopted new land-use data (in domain 4) directly retrieved from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery to replace the 1980s data of the United States Geological Survey in BE. A 48-h simulation (from 0000 UTC on 21 October to 0000 UTC on 23 October 2008) was conducted, with the first 12 h being the spin-up time and the remaining 36 h being the effective simulation, so as to capture the diurnal features of the thermally induced winds associated with the land–sea breeze and urban heat island circulations. The different results obtained from the two tests for wind circulation and air pollution dispersion and transportation in the Pearl River Delta region were analyzed. The simulated results show that the both experiments can well simulate land–sea breeze circulation and remarkable land–sea breeze evolution, comparing with observation data. The height of the PBL had a significant diurnal cycle. The structure of the wind field can obviously impact the dispersion of the NO x in three dimensions. Nitrogen oxides mainly diffused along the dominant wind direction (east or southeast wind), therefore the majority of the pollutants accumulated in the northwest region of the fine domain in both simulation experiments. However, it induced the pollutants concentration in an irregular pattern due to the fine-resolution grid spaces and complicated inland wind field in the northwest area of the inner domain. Moreover, increasing the proportion of urban surface caused sensible heat flux increase, latent heat flux decrease and humility reducing relatively in the region of urban surface characteristics apparently. Urbanization will cause pollution accumulated severely over the urban surface.

Global distribution and climate forcing of marine organic aerosol: 1. Model improvements and evaluation

Abstract. Marine organic aerosol emissions have been implemented and evaluated within the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's 7-mode Modal Aerosol Module (MAM-7). Emissions of marine primary organic aerosols (POA), phytoplankton-produced isoprene- and monoterpenes-derived secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and methane sulfonate (MS−) are shown to affect surface concentrations of organic aerosols in remote marine regions. Global emissions of submicron marine POA is estimated to be 7.9 and 9.4 Tg yr−1, for the Gantt et al. (2011) and Vignati et al. (2010) emission parameterizations, respectively. Marine sources of SOA and particulate MS− (containing both sulfur and carbon atoms) contribute an additional 0.2 and 5.1 Tg yr−1, respectively. Widespread areas over productive waters of the Northern Atlantic, Northern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean show marine-source submicron organic aerosol surface concentrations of 100 ng m−3, with values up to 400 ng m−3 over biologically productive areas. Comparison of long-term surface observations of water insoluble organic matter (WIOM) with POA concentrations from the two emission parameterizations shows that despite revealed discrepancies (often more than a factor of 2), both Gantt et al. (2011) and Vignati et al. (2010) formulations are able to capture the magnitude of marine organic aerosol concentrations, with the Gantt et al. (2011) parameterization attaining better seasonality. Model simulations show that the mixing state of the marine POA can impact the surface number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The largest increases (up to 20%) in CCN (at a supersaturation (S) of 0.2%) number concentration are obtained over biologically productive ocean waters when marine organic aerosol is assumed to be externally mixed with sea-salt. Assuming marine organics are internally-mixed with sea-salt provides diverse results with increases and decreases in the concentration of CCN over different parts of the ocean. The sign of the CCN change due to the addition of marine organics to sea-salt aerosol is determined by the relative significance of the increase in mean modal diameter due to addition of mass, and the decrease in particle hygroscopicity due to compositional changes in marine aerosol. Based on emerging evidence for increased CCN concentration over biologically active surface ocean areas/periods, our study suggests that treatment of sea spray in global climate models (GCMs) as an internal mixture of marine organic aerosols and sea-salt will likely lead to an underestimation in CCN number concentration.

A numerical simulation of the effect of the number concentration of cloud droplets on Typhoon Chanchu

In recent years, an increase in the number of anthropogenic aerosol particles has raised the global mean content of aerosol particles in the atmosphere from that of preindustrial times. The indirect effects of aerosols on weather and climate cannot be ignored. In this paper, the fifth generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)–National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Typhoon Chanchu (international designation: 0601), which affected the northwest Pacific. Simulations are conducted in three two-way nested domains with Mercator map projection. The horizontal grid resolutions of the three domains are 27, 9, and 3 km. A period of 60 h is simulated. Surface and rawinsonde conventional observation data and ocean wind data are additionally incorporated into the initialization data. A control (CTL) experiment is run to produce a reasonable forecast. We change the parameter of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration (CNP) in the Reisner-2 scheme of the CTL experiment (the default value is 100 cm−3) to conduct two sensitivity experiments. They are the very clean marine (VCM) CNP experiment (CNP = 25 cm−3) and the severe contamination (SC) CNP experiment (CNP = 1,000 cm−3). We investigate the effects of the CNP on Typhoon Chanchu by comparing and analyzing the simulation results of the three experiments in terms of the track, intensity, precipitation, vertical structure, and microphysical processes. The main results show that Typhoon Chanchu slightly weakens as the CNP increases. Increasing the CCN to 1,000 cm−3 results in less graupel, rainwater, and cloud ice but more cloud water. However, the mixing ratio of snow does not distinctly change as the CNP changes. Increasing the CCN leads a rapid decrease in the autoconversion of cloud water to rainwater. There is no autoconversion of cloud water to rainwater in a seriously polluted continental air mass. As the CNP increases, there is more condensation, evaporation, accretion of cloud water by rainwater, and precipitation fallout. Finally, a seriously polluted continental air mass can result in distinctly lower precipitation efficiency.

Atomic oxygen distributions in the Venus thermosphere: Comparisons between Venus Express observations and global model simulations

Nightglow emissions provide insight into the global thermospheric circulation, specifically in the transition region (∼70–120 km). The O 2 IR nightglow statistical map created from Venus Express (VEx) Visible and InfraRed Thermal Imaging Spectrometer (VIRTIS) observations has been used to deduce a three-dimensional atomic oxygen density map. In this study, the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model (VTGCM) is utilized to provide a self-consistent global view of the atomic oxygen density distribution. More specifically, the VTGCM reproduces a 2D nightside atomic oxygen density map and vertical profiles across the nightside, which are compared to the VEx atomic oxygen density map. Both the simulated map and vertical profiles are in close agreement with VEx observations within a ∼30° contour of the anti-solar point. The quality of agreement decreases past ∼30°. This discrepancy implies the employment of Rayleigh friction within the VTGCM may be an over-simplification for representing wave drag effects on the local time variation of global winds. Nevertheless, the simulated atomic oxygen vertical profiles are comparable with the VEx profiles above 90 km, which is consistent with similar O 2 ( 1Δ) IR nightglow intensities. The VTGCM simulations demonstrate the importance of low altitude trace species as a loss for atomic oxygen below 95 km. The agreement between simulations and observations provides confidence in the validity of the simulated mean global thermospheric circulation pattern in the lower thermosphere.

Atmospheric correction of optical imagery from MODIS and Reanalysis atmospheric products

In this paper we analyze the differences obtained in the atmospheric correction of optical imagery covering bands located in the Visible and Near Infra-Red (VNIR), Short-Wave Infra-Red (SWIR) and Themal-Infrared (TIR) spectral regions when atmospheric profiles extracted from different sources are used. In particular, three sensors were used, Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS), Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer (ASTER) and Landsat5 Thematic Mapper (TM), whereas four atmospheric profiles sources were considered: i) local soundings launched near the sensor overpass time, ii) Moderate Resolution Radiometer (MODIS) atmospheric profiles product (MOD07), iii) Atmospheric Correction Parameter Calculator (ACPC) generated by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and iv) Modified Atmospheric Profiles from Reanalysis Information (MAPRI), which includes data from NCEP and National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis project but interpolated to 34 atmospheric levels and resampled to 0.5°×0.5°. MODIS aerosol product (MOD04) was also used to extract Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) values at 550nm. Analysis was performed for three test dates (12th July 2003, 18th July 2004 and 13th July 2005) over an agricultural area in Spain. Results showed that air temperature vertical profiles were similar for the four sources, whereas dew point temperature profiles showed significant differences at some particular levels. Atmospheric profiles were used as input to MODTRAN4 radiative transfer code in order to compute atmospheric parameters involved in atmospheric correction, with the aim of retrieving surface reflectances in the case of VNIR and SWIR regions, and Land Surface Temperature (LST) in the case of the TIR region. For the VNIR and SWIR region, significant differences depending on the atmospheric profile used were not found, particularly in the Visible region in which the AOT content is the main parameter involved in the atmospheric correction. In the case of TIR, differences depending on the atmospheric profile used were appreciable, since in this case the main parameter involved in the atmospheric correction is the water vapor content, which depends on the vertical profile. In terms of LST retrieval from ASTER data (2004 test case), all profiles provided satisfactory results compared to the ones obtained when using a local sounding, with errors of 0.3K for ACPC and MAPRI cases and 0.7K for MOD07. When retrieving LST from TM data (2005 test case), errors for MOD07 and MAPRI were 0.6 and 0.9K respectively, whereas ACPC provided an error of 2K. The results presented in this paper show that the different atmospheric profile sources are useful for accurate atmospheric correction when local soundings are not available. In particular, MOD07 product provides atmospheric information at the highest spatial resolution, 5km, although its use is limited from 2000 to present, whereas MAPRI provides historical information from 1970 to present, but at lower spatial resolution.

Maintenance of Lower Tropospheric Temperature Inversion in the Saharan Air Layer by Dust and Dry Anomaly

Abstract The role of Saharan dust and dry anomaly in maintaining the temperature inversion in the Saharan air layer (SAL) is investigated. The dust aerosol optical thickness (AOT) in the SAL is inferred from the measurements taken by Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the corresponding temperature and specific humidity anomalies are identified using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data in August–September over the North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) main development region (MDR; 10°–20°N, 40°–60°W). The authors also study the SAL simulated in the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3), coupled with dust radiative effect. It is found that higher AOT is associated with warmer and dryer anomalies below 700 hPa, which increases the atmospheric stability. The calculated instantaneous radiative heating anomalies from a radiative transfer model indicate that both the dust and low humidity are essential to maintaining the temperature structure in the SAL against thermal relaxation. At 850 hPa, heating anomalies caused by both the dust and dry anomalies (for AOT > 0.8) are 0.2–0.4 K day−1. The dust heats the atmosphere below 600 hPa, while the dry anomaly cools the atmosphere below 925 hPa, resulting in a peak of heating rate anomaly located at 700–850 hPa. In the eastern Atlantic, dust contributes about 50% of the heating rate anomaly. Westward of 40°W, when the dust content becomes small (AOT < 0.6), the heating rates are more sensitive to the water vapor profile used in the radiative transfer calculation. Retrieving or simulating correct water vapor profiles is essential to the assessment of the SAL heating budgets in regions where the dust content in the SAL is small.

Atmospheric Model-Based Streamflow Forecasting at Small, Mountainous Watersheds by a Distributed Hydrologic Model: Application to a Watershed in Japan

In this study, an experimental 12-h lead-time flood forecasting methodology that combines the fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) of the U.S. National Center of Atmospheric Research with the physically based, spatially distributed watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model is described and applied to the Shiobara Dam watershed in Japan in order to explore its utility. The Shiobara-Dam watershed is a mountainous steep-sloped watershed that has an area of 123 km2 . Meanwhile, the routine atmospheric assimilation data that are provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) over Japan, have spatial resolution of 20 km and are at 12-h time intervals. In order to utilize the JMA’s atmospheric data at 12-h intervals as initial and boundary conditions for 12-h lead-time hourly precipitation forecast inputs to the WEHY model of Shiobara-Dam watershed for runoff forecasts, the MM5 nonhydrostatic atmospheric forecast model was chosen and nested inside the JMA’s data domain. The JMA’s atmospheric data were...

A numerical study of the South Atlantic circulation at the Last Glacial Maximum

In this study, we examine the simulation results from the paleoclimate version of the National Center of Atmospheric Research coupled Climate System Model (CSM 1.4) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in order to understand changes in the South Atlantic (SA) circulation relative to the Present Day (PD). The LGM simulation is validated with the available proxy data in the region. The results show good agreement, except in the eastern equatorial and eastern SA region, where the model is not able to reproduce the correct cloud cover and the associated air–sea interactions. Ocean transport in the PD simulation is in good agreement with observational estimates. Results show that at subsurface levels there are two distinct patterns: (i) strengthening of the transport for the LGM in the southern SA (35°S to 25°S); and (ii) weakening of the mass transport in the northern SA (25°S to the Equator). In intermediate layers, there is an intensification of the subtropical gyre and a northward shift of the South Equatorial Current (SEC) bifurcation for the LGM. This leads to the intensification of the southward transport by the Brazil Current (BC) and the associated BC recirculation cell in the southern basin for the LGM. This shift in the position of the SEC bifurcation leads to a weakening in the northward transport and the western recirculation of the central SEC in the northern basin. This northward shift of the SEC (upper limit of the subtropical gyre) is consistent with the northward shift observed in the subtropical convergence zone and suggests a displacement of the sub-tropical gyre 3°–5° towards the Equator. In deeper layers, a shallower and weaker North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) circulation in the LGM contributes to the reduction of the southward transport in the northern part of the basin and is associated with a greater northward intrusion of Antarctic Bottom Water. This intrusion plus the increase of the Indian Water inflow is responsible for the northward transport intensification in the southern basin.

Behavior of 137Cs concentrations in the North Pacific in an ocean general circulation model

We have carried out a first simulation of the spatial distributions and the temporal variations of 137Cs concentrations in the North Pacific in off line calculations by using archived output of an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) developed by the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Artificial radionuclides including 137Cs are introduced into ocean surface due to global fallout originating from the large‐scale atmospheric nuclear weapons tests in 1961–1962. The distribution of radioactive deposition used as forcing for this simulation is estimated from global precipitation data and observed values of annual deposition of radionuclides at the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) in Japan. 137Cs originating from global fallout have been transported into the ocean interior by advection and diffusion, and the 137Cs concentrations reduced by radioactive decay. We assess the skill of the model calculations by comparing simulated values of 137Cs in seawater with the observed values included in the database compiled by MRI because 137Cs is one of the most useful tracers regarding water motion in the ocean. The vertical and horizontal distributions of the calculated 137Cs concentrations were in good agreement with those of the observed 137Cs concentrations, except in the deep layer.

Numerical simulation of 137Cs and 239,240Pu concentrations by an ocean general circulation model

We simulated the spatial distributions and the temporal variations of 137Cs and 239,240Pu concentrations in the ocean by using the ocean general circulation model which was developed by National Center of Atmospheric Research. These nuclides are introduced into seawaters from global fallout due to atmospheric nuclear weapons tests. The distribution of radioactive deposition on the world ocean is estimated from global precipitation data and observed values of annual deposition of radionuclides at the Meteorological Research Institute in Japan and several observed points in New Zealand. Radionuclides from global fallout have been transported by advection, diffusion and scavenging, and this concentration reduces by radioactive decay in the ocean. We verified the results of the model calculations by comparing simulated values of 137Cs and 239,240Pu in seawater with the observed values included in the Historical Artificial Radionuclides in the HAM database, which has been constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute. The vertical distributions of the calculated 137Cs concentrations were in good agreement and are in good agreement with the observed profiles in the 1960s up to 250 m, in the 1970s up to 500 m, in the 1980s up to 750 m and in the 1990s up to 750 m. However, the calculated 137Cs concentrations were underestimated compared with the observed 137Cs at the deeper layer. This may suggest other transport processes of 137Cs to deep waters. The horizontal distributions of 137Cs concentrations in surface water could be simulated. A numerical tracer release experiment was performed to explain the horizontal distribution pattern. A maximum 239,240Pu concentration layer occurs at an intermediate depth for both observed and calculated values, which is formed by particle scavenging. The horizontal distributions of the calculated 239,240Pu concentrations in surface water could be simulated by considering the scavenging effect.

Estimating monthly surface winds for scania, southern sweden, using geostrophic wind (1899–1997)

Wind direction conditions during the 20th century in Scania, southern Sweden, are investigated using an estimated series of monthly wind vector components (east–west u component and north–south v component). The series is developed from a regression relationship between pairwise (1973 to 1997) monthly averages of 10–m surface wind from Scania and a monthly geostrophic wind, based on mean sea level (MSL) pressure data from the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The wind conditions during the 20th century are dominated by winds from southwesterly and westerly directions, particularly during summer and autumn. From the 1980s onwards, increased frequencies of westerly winds are evident in spring and summer; however, similarly large frequencies of westerly winds are also found during the early part of the 20th century. Analysis of the estimated wind series indicates large variation in wind direction during the investigated time period, particularly during 1930 to 1960 when large increases of easterly winds are evident in spring. Increased frequencies of easterly winds were also found in other months during this period but not to the same extent as during the spring season. Thus, the presence of periods with quite different wind characteristics suggests that the overall atmospheric circulation has experienced some shifts in this region during the 20th century.