National Capabilities Research Articles

Concept and measurement: Exploring foreign policy similarity

AbstractObjectiveThis paper aims to evaluate existing measurements and propose new ones for foreign policy similarity in international politics, emphasizing the importance of measurement in social science. The indicators designed must align with theoretical concepts and data characteristics to ensure consistency and validity.MethodsThe paper meticulously examines the assumptions and calculation methods of existing indicators, such as the S‐score and tau‐b, to rigorously evaluate their alignment with theoretical concepts and data characteristics. It then proposes alternative measurements that can address these criteria.ResultsThe new indicators introduced in this paper address the limitations of the existing measurements. While producing values similar to existing measurements, they maintain conceptual consistency and operational interpretability. Additionally, the paper presents a tau‐like indicator weighted by national capability, an aspect not feasible with the previous tau‐b, leading to new meaningful conclusions.ConclusionsThis paper emphasizes the importance of understanding measurements when creating or using them. A deep comprehension of similarity measures and the research topic facilitates more precise measurements, thereby enhancing research outcomes in international politics.

School productive performance and technology gaps: New evidence from PISA 2018

Improving educational outcomes is a global political imperative due to its favourable influence on a country's economic prosperity. Although researchers have endeavoured to gauge school performance through diverse data resources and techniques, there remains a lack of clarity regarding the factors that enhance school effectiveness. Using the latest version of the Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa, 2018), this paper employs a bootstrapped data envelopment analysis (DEA) to investigate the factors underlying the performance of 8825 schools across 34 OECD countries in terms of their national and international technological capabilities. The central idea is that technological heterogeneity and the technology gap significantly influence the benchmarking process. The findings confirm the presence of substantial technology gaps, indicating that the examined schools are unable to fully harness their potential due to limitations in metatechnology. These gaps are influenced by student characteristics, school features and educational practices.

Performance evaluation of financial special poverty alleviation development funds under the background of rural revitalization with 2-tuple linguistic Pythagorean fuzzy information

A scientific financial transfer payment system is an important guarantee for promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity. The new development concept puts forward new requirements for fiscal governance at a new historical stage. The reform and improvement of the special transfer payment system match the responsibility and responsibility of fiscal governance, and better serve the national strategic pattern of rural revitalization and common prosperity. The performance evaluation of financial special poverty alleviation (SPA) development funds is conducive to improving the efficiency of fund utilization, achieving the radiation effect and multiple effect of financial SPA development funds, improving the ability of financial transfer payments, and enhancing the modernization of national financial governance capabilities. The performance evaluation of financial SPA development funds under the background of rural revitalization is a multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM). Based on the existing MABAC model, the MABAC model is extended to 2-tuple linguistic Pythagorean fuzzy sets (2TLPFSs). Firstly, the definitions of 2TLPFSs, 2TLPFWA operator and 2TLPFWG operator is introduced. Then, the existing MABAC method is also introduced. The 2-tuple linguistic Pythagorean fuzzy number MABAC method (2TLPFN-MABAC) is constructed to cope with the MAGDM under 2TLPFSs. Finally, a case study for performance evaluation of financial SPA development funds under the background of rural revitalization is constructed and some comparative analyses is employed to verify the 2TLPFN-MABAC method.

Financing of space activities by organizations in conditions of war

The article provides a thorough characterization of wartime space activity, which has grown and evolved significantly over the past six decades. It is substantiated that the utilization of space under the auspices of several space states has turned into a type of activity in more than 60 countries around the world. Authors carried out a study of trends in the sources of funding for the space industry, as well as identified negative factors that affect the pace of development of the space industry established in previous years, namely: problems in the world economy caused by the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation, inflation rates, changes in interest rates and loss Ukraine's export opportunities. We studied the European Space Agency report on changes to funding amounts for space sector projects that fit the definition of projects with rapid development for the years 2019–2022. The impact of the conflict on Ukraine's space industry and strategies for maintaining pre-war accomplishments under novel circumstances are identified. The process via which the government and private businesses fund domestic space activities is examined. The purpose of the article is a thorough analysis of the pre-war and post-war financing of space activities, as well as the formulation of the main models of financing the space industry in the post-war period in order to bring it to a new level of functioning. The research underscores space activity as a major financing priority in developed nations. Pre-war, the space industry showed rapid growth, initially state-funded, later attracting private investments. However, ongoing conflict in Ukraine led to reduced funding for less profitable projects, emphasizing the need for a balanced strategy using state and private investments for post-war reconstruction and maintaining a strong national defense capability in the global space sector.

Does the Belt and Road Initiative promote international innovation cooperation?

International innovation cooperation is crucial to the enhancement of national technological innovation capabilities in the context of globalization. Does the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as a major international initiative, promote innovation cooperation between China and BRI partner countries? Taking the top 80 global countries in innovation capability as the research sample, this paper uses the DID method to answer this question. The empirical results show that the BRI indeed promoted innovation cooperation between them to a certain extent. Specifically, it significantly increased the proportion of their cooperative patents in China’s total patents, and the promotion effect was more obvious for countries with better economic foundations. Furthermore, the mechanism tests indicate that shortening the institutional distance, strengthening the exchange of scientific and technological talents, and stimulating cultural differences were important mechanisms promoting their innovation cooperation. Although the BRI did not significantly increase the proportion of cooperative patents in BRI partner countries’ total patents, it effectively improved their innovation foundations and capabilities.

Model of an Active Policy of Combatants’ Social Protection in Ukraine

Ukraine's choice of a democratic European path of development requires active and targeted measures in the political, security, social and other spheres. Today, Ukraine is undergoing an intensive process of developing a system of social protection for military men and veterans: the legal framework and institutional support are being updated and NATO standards are being introduced in order to achieve a high level of national defense capability. However, an effective model of social protection of veterans has not been formed during the years of independence. A number of issues remain unresolved, which testifies to the fragmentary nature of changes in the veterans' social protection policy, the improvement of individual components, and not the entire complex of mechanisms, methods, tools, and forms of its implementation. The challenges that the country is forced to take into account require the introduction of a new model of social protection for veterans and a clear vision of the set of mechanisms for its implementation, specific measures, and final results in the field of social protection of veterans.
 The objective of the article is to substantiate the need to implement in Ukraine a model of active policy of social protection of veterans, which will ensure the transition from a paternalistic nature to creating conditions for readaptation and use of the potential of social self-protection.

Baltic States Cyber Security Policy: Development of digital capabilities in 2017-2022

Background The Baltic Sea region is currently one of the tensest areas in Europe, with Russia potentially challenging the international order by provoking a new confrontation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In this context, the Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are developing their cyber security capabilities, which provides an intriguing example of how small states with an aggressive neighbour can operate. The perceived threat is driving the development of cyber capabilities, and policymakers are prioritizing efforts to strengthen their digital capabilities. Methods This article aims to examine the security challenges faced by the Baltic States in the digital environment and their strategies for enhancing digital capacity building competencies. Additionally, the article focuses on the Baltic States' efforts to build and strengthen cyber capabilities, which serve as the foundation for their cyber security policies. To accomplish this, data from the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) was utilized, employing research methods including quantitative, qualitative, and comparative analyses. This approach aimed to evaluate and compare the progress in digital capabilities among the Baltic States. Additionally, an analysis of strategic documents was conducted to gain insight into each country's perspective on cyber security and to identify opportunities for the development of this field in consideration of available resources. Results The findings emphasize the Baltic states' dedication to bolstering their cyber resilience, primarily motivated by the perceived threat from Russia. The study underscores the intricate relationship between socioeconomic factors and a nation's cyber capabilities. Conclusions The conclusion drawn is that their endeavours to establish and enhance cyber capabilities constitute a pivotal component of their cybersecurity strategy, thus contributing to regional stability and NATO's collective defence.

AI specialization for pathways of economic diversification

The growth in AI is rapidly transforming the structure of economic production. However, very little is known about how within-AI specialization may relate to broad-based economic diversification. This paper provides a data-driven framework to integrate the interconnection between AI-based specialization with goods and services export specialization to help design future comparative advantage based on the inherent capabilities of nations. Using detailed data on private investment in AI and export specialization for more than 80 countries, we propose a systematic framework to help identify the connection from AI to goods and service sector specialization. The results are instructive for nations that aim to harness AI specialization to help guide sources of future competitive advantage. The operational framework could help inform the public and private sectors to uncover connections with nearby areas of specialization.

The Development and Operational Use of an Integrated Numerical Weather Prediction System in the National Center for Meteorology of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Abstract The weather and climate greatly affect socioeconomic activities on multiple temporal and spatial scales. From a climate perspective, atmospheric and ocean characteristics have determined the life, evolution, and prosperity of humans and other species in different areas of the world. On smaller scales, the atmospheric and sea conditions affect various sectors such as civil protection, food security, communications, transportation, and insurance. It becomes evident that weather and ocean forecasting is high-value information highlighting the need for state-of-the-art forecasting systems to be adopted. This importance has been acknowledged by the authorities of Saudi Arabia entrusting the National Center for Meteorology (NCM) to provide high-quality weather and climate analytics. This led to the development of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. The new system includes weather, wave, and ocean circulation components and has been operational since 2020 enhancing the national capabilities in NWP. Within this article, a description of the system and its performance is discussed alongside future goals.

Potential impact of artificial intelligence on the emerging world order.

The fast-paced diffusion of technologies broadly falling under the umbrella of artificial intelligence (AI) is said to be shaping the emerging world order in international relations (IR). It is expected that the global AI race will pave the way for another rise and fall of great powers in the international system, similar to the impact caused by the three industrial revolutions of the past. The literature in IR identifies three major powers - namely, the United States of America (USA), China, and Russia, as the leading contenders in this AI race. The ongoing AI-enabled fourth industrial revolution is all the more unique due to the markedly different approaches these three powers have adopted for integrating AI into their military, political, and socio-economic spheres. The AI strategies of these countries further reflect their capabilities and intentions towards how they plan on employing the technology to elevate their prestige and power status in the international system. This paper draws from a historiography of the First, Second, and Third Industrial Revolutions to study how technological innovations have altered relative power capabilities of nations, triggering a re-ordering of power hierarchies at a systemic level. Drawing from this understanding, it analyses the nature of AI as an emerging technology and assesses whether it can cause systemic alterations. It critically examines and compares the AI strategies of the USA, China, and Russia as leading contenders in the global AI race and outlines their strengths and weaknesses. It further draws from the Adoption Capacity Theory to argue that the AI race may well be determined by the relative capacity of the major institutions in each of these countries to manage and adapt to the disruptions this technology is bound to bring to the fore.

The effect of heterogeneous national technological capabilities on a Net-zero energy system

Numerous studies have linked the heterogeneous nature of national technological capabilities to the disparities in country-level low-carbon investment patterns. This study investigates how differences in national and regional technological capabilities can impact the pathway to a global net-zero energy system using an integrated assessment modeling approach. The study begins by developing a novel metric that captures the heterogeneity of national low-carbon technological endowments. The metric is then modeled to explore the regional and global low-carbon investment and CO2 abatement trends. Modeling results reveal that the heterogeneity of low-carbon technological competencies induces an asymmetry in low-carbon investments across countries and regions. This asymmetry is driven by a low-carbon investment gap created by developing economies with inferior technological capabilities. Conversely, frontier low-carbon technology regions increase their technology deployment efforts to compensate for the investment deficits. The resultant impact of the asymmetry leads to a moderate but non-trivial increase (i.e., 5.1 to 9.3 %) in the policy cost for achieving the net-zero energy target. Insights gleaned from this computational thought experiment reassert the importance of supporting local technological capabilities in the context of global climate mitigation.

An integrated hybrid MCDM approach to evaluate countries’ COVID-19 risks

To enable planning and early reaction efforts, it is important to identify the nations most at risk from COVID-19's health and humanitarian effects, which could exceed present national response capabilities. INFORM COVID-19 Risk Index developed by European Commission is one of the initiatives to meet the aforementioned need. However, the Index has 40 conflicting and comprehensive indicators (e.g., health system capacity, hygiene, vulnerability) and different countries that lead to a need for multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches. This paper offers an integrated MCDM approach with two phases to re-assess the countries' COVID-19 risks based on INFORM COVID-19 Risk Index. In the first phase, the 40 indicators are prioritized using the Entropy-based multi-choice best-worst method (MC-BWM) to provide multiple viewpoints for the preferences values. In the second phase, 29 countries from different geographical regions are ranked using the COPRAS (Complex Proportional Assessment) method. Applying these three methods together on the COVID-19 risk assessment of countries is the most significant novelty for the relevant literature. The proposed approach has undergone a thorough comparative evaluation with the released INFORM COVID-19 Risk Index, and recommendations are provided based on different scenario analyses.

Possible green-technology innovation motivated by China’s pilot carbon market: new evidence from city panel data

ABSTRACT Whether the carbon market can promote green technology innovation is a controversial topic because of an incomplete understanding of the mechanism and inconsistent datasets. This study first comprehensively explores the theoretical mechanism of the carbon market on green technology innovation from four aspects: the compensation effect, cost control motivation, crowding-out effect, and spillover effect. A sample of 209 cities in China is employed to empirically test the impact of China’s pilot carbon market on green technology innovation and its regional and industry heterogeneity using quasi-natural experiments. We found that China’s pilot carbon market has significantly promoted green technology innovation at the city level, especially in provincial capital cities, achieving a maximum effect two years after the shock. However, there is no significant spillover effect on the surrounding non-pilot cities, and Chongqing has realized the suppression of green technology innovation under the domination of the crowding-out effect. At the industry level, the pilot carbon market significantly promotes green technology innovation in the transportation, construction, chemical, and power industries but exhibits crowding-out effects in the steel industry. Finally, we propose policy implications for maintaining reasonable and stable carbon prices to stimulate compensation effects, scientifically determining the order of industry inclusion to avoid crowding-out effects, and accelerating inter-regional supply chains and technological cooperation to release spillover effects. Key policy insights: It is recommended to scientifically determine a reasonable carbon price range and introduce institutions, individuals, and other trading entities to improve the liquidity of the carbon market and the effectiveness of carbon prices. Considering the high cost triggered by the complex processes of the steel industry in developing countries, its inclusion may inhibit green technology innovation; thus, it is necessary to be cautious about including the steel industry in the carbon market. To build a carbon market in developing countries, the order of industry inclusion must be determined based on scientific calculations of the costs of green technology innovation in the industry. Avoid using self-declaration for carbon quota allocation and focus on improving national basic innovation capabilities to ensure the supply of green technology innovation.

Analysis of the potential development of defense industry policies with the Total Quality Management (TQM) approach at PT. PAL

This article discusses the analysis of potential defense industry policy development with the Total Quality Management (TQM) approach. The defense industry plays an important role in maintaining the security and sovereignty of a country. In the face of increasingly complex and dynamic security challenges, the product quality and competitiveness of the defense industry must be continuously improved. TQM has proven effective in improving performance and quality in various industrial sectors. This approach emphasizes continuous quality improvement and involves all members of the organization in process and product improvement. In the context of the defense industry, TQM is becoming increasingly relevant to achieve industrial independence and improve competitiveness in the global market. This research uses literature study, data analysis, and case studies of defense industries in several countries. This data is used to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in developing the defense industry with a TQM approach. The results of this analysis are expected to contribute to policy makers and defense industry management in formulating strategies to improve the independence, efficiency and overall quality of the defense industry. By exploring the potential for developing defense industry policies with a TQM approach, the country can strengthen its defense capabilities, increase the contribution of the defense industry in supporting national security, and face the future with greater confidence and resilience. By exploring the potential of integrating the TQM approach into defense industry policies, this research strives to fortify a nation's defense capabilities. It also seeks to amplify the defense industry's role in bolstering national security. Consequently, this comprehensive analysis offers a blueprint for a future that promises increased self-assuredness and resilience, enabling the country to navigate evolving security challenges with confidence and adeptness.

A SOCIAL CONSTRUCTIVIST CRITIQUE TO POWER-TRANSITION THEORY AS A PREDICTOR OF WAR

The concept of power is inadvertently one of the most central topics in the field of politics. The concept has been intriguing for mankind as long as the human memory goes. Especially the realist school of thought has a primary focus on the power-narrative. One of the earliest studies undertaken was that of A.F.K. Organski who wrote World Politics in 1958 that constructed indicators what state power may or may not constitute. Organski’s work being explanatory has prompted a scientific prediction of war based on these indicators. Power Transition Theory provides relevance from a practical realist stance in today’s turbulent international order elaborating on Nation, International Relations and International Organizations. Constructivism criticizes the predictive abilities and the absoluteness as quick turn of events can make mockery of the tidiest of theories. However, this paper seeks to establish an alternative criticism to the Power Transition Theory as discussed in a vast body of literature on how wars are predicted during a transition of power on basis of Index of National Capability (INC).

Beyond Neoliberalism and Capital Accumulation Theory: Evidence Learning from Turkey’s Economy

Neoliberalism is both a body of economic theory and a policy stance. The neoliberal theory claims that a largely unregulated capitalist system (“a free market economy”) embodies the ideal of free individual choice and achieves optimum economic performance.
 The phase of “embedded liberalism” was succeeded by an era of embedded neoliberalism in which the contradictions of global capitalism were veiled by the hegemonic ideology of individual freedom and prosperity in the nineteenth century.
 The conditions for a capitalist economy in Turkey were established in the 1920s within the republican political system, which supported the development of national economic capability for capitalist accumulation—albeit with strict government planning of the budget and control over the private sector and foreign trade and investment. After 1980, neoliberal economic reform weakened the statist system and, particularly since 2001, transformed Turkey into a transnational state better suited to the demands of a global economy.
 This paper tries to identify and find the link between neoliberalism and capital accumulation theory based on learning about Turkey’s economy before and after the crisis. We found that the outcome of neoliberal restructuring experiments depends crucially on pre-existing and changing power structures and relations in the course of state transformations. Thus, Turkey shifted to a neo-liberal model through voluntary choice but as an inevitable and forced outcome of a major balance of payments crisis associated with the exhaustion of the import-substitution model of industrialization.

Six Decades of Consolidation in the European Defence Industry (1960-2022)

In the present security environment, the capabilities of the European defense industry and the impact of restructuring over the years have become issues of concern. Researchers have found considerable consolidation when looking at the overall industry, but have failed to consider that this might understate the loss of national capabilities in subsectors. This article investigates the effect that restructuring has had on twenty subsectors of the defense industry in thirty one European countries from 1960 to 2022. It finds that since the 1960s, the number of major European defense firms has contracted by between 29% and 80% across subsectors, implying the loss of a range of capabilities. It suggests that while Europeanization is inevitable, it is likely be accompanied by further diminishing capabilities at the national level.

Power through Culture: The Gender Paradigm in China’s Soft Power Engagement in the Global South

Despite the growing scholarly interest in China as a Global South power, two themes remain under investigated: One of the ways in which China has used soft power to project its comprehensive national capabilities and international power. Another theme that is overlooked by the existing China scholarship is the issue of gender. The so-called “miracle” of China’s recent rise as an economic powerhouse has also been a highly gendered process about which millions of women within China and outside the home raised concerns about the task of stronger political policies and actions that can institute gender equality and non-discrimination for women and girls. Soft power has played an important role in China’s international relations and the Party-State legitimacy among the people in China in terms of improving national pride and demonstrating that the world outside China admires the Chinese way of life—its social, economic institutions, cultural values, and the communist party of China’s (CPC) governance system. This study presents an analysis of the gender equality paradigm in China’s soft power engagement in the Global South. A history of the CPC shows a consistent policy concern for women’s empowerment and gender equality, generally represented in the concept “women hold up half the sky”, and therefore entitled to their right to resources and equal position in society. Since the 18th National Congress the CPC, President Xi Jinping and the Central Committee committed to adhering the basic national policy of gender equality “as a code of conduct and value standard” for the entire society (China Government Network 2021:3) and advocated for women’s equal rights through strategic measures like participation in economic construction in the family and society, including “equal sharing of housework” and family responsibility such as care work (Chinese Government Network, 2021:31). Have these policy concerns for women’s empowerment been part of China’s structural system of soft power or part of China’s negotiations with any country in Asia?

Enhancing national defense capabilities through collaborative programs: insights and policy recommendations for Indonesia

Enhancing national defense capabilities through collaborative programs: insights and policy recommendations for Indonesia

A Critique of Biosafety Governance in Genetically Modified Crops

The benefits of the technology and the assurances to contain the biosafety risks evolved by the international protocols favoured the release of Genetically Modified crops (GM) crops in the environment. The biosafety proposals established in the international forum is a managed norm after negotiations where the perception of benefits outweigh the risks it could pose to environment and human health. The differing perception of nations over the risks of GM crops and their acceptance to a global norm after protracted negotiations not only signifies the hierarchical power relations exist among nations but also the differing research capabilities of nations, their governance structure, and their socio-economic conditions to manage the risks. The perceived risks and benefits of GM crops is still a contested debate where the relations of technology with politics, policy and economy have come nearer and entangled.