National Basketball Association Games Research Articles

Epidemiology of Injuries Among National Basketball Association Players: 2013-2014 Through 2018-2019.

Understanding the epidemiology of injuries to athletes is essential to informing injury prevention efforts. The incidence and impact of basketball-related injuries among National Basketball Association (NBA) players from 2013-2014 through 2018-2019 is relatively stable over time. Descriptive epidemiology study. Level 3. Injuries from 2013-2014 through 2018-2019 were analyzed using the NBA Injury and Illness Database from an electronic medical record system. Descriptive statistics were calculated for injuries by season, game-loss, and onset. Incidence rates were estimated using Poisson models and linear trend tests. Between 552 and 606 players participated in ≥1 game per season during the study. Annual injury incidence ranged from 1550 to 1892, with 33.6% to 38.5% resulting in a missed NBA game. Game-loss injury rates ranged from 5.6 to 7.0 injuries per 10,000 player-minutes from 2014-2015 through 2018-2019 (P = 0.19); the rate was lower in 2013-2014 (5.0 injuries per 10,000 player-minutes), partly due to increased preseason injury rates and transition of reporting processes. The 6-year game-loss injury rate in preseason and regular season games was 6.9 (95% CI 6.0, 8.0) and 6.2 (95% CI 6.0, 6.5) injuries per 10,000 player-minutes; the rate in playoff games was lower (P < 0.01) at 2.8 (95% CI 2.2, 3.6). Most (73%) game-loss injuries had acute onset; 44.4% to 52.5% of these involved contact with another player. From 2013-2014 through 2018-2019, over one-third of injuries resulted in missed NBA games, with highest rates of game-loss injuries in preseason games and lowest rates in playoff games. Most game-loss injuries had acute onset, and half of those involved contact with another player. These findings - through reliable data reporting by team medical staff in an audited system - can guide evidence-based injury reduction strategies and inform player health priorities.

Video analysis of anterior cruciate ligament tears of professional basketball players in the National Basketball Association.

Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears are devastating for elite athletes, including those in the National Basketball Association (NBA). The purpose of this study was to describe common in-game mechanisms of injury, playing situations, and anatomic positioning of players who sustained an ACL injury in the NBA. ACL tears which occurred in NBA games during the previous 16 seasons (2007-2022) and had accessible video clips were identified through publicly available reports. Thirty-one ACL tears were identified with quality videos available. Nearly all players were on offense (93.5%, 29/31). Most ACL tears (29/31, 93.5%) did not involve direct contact to the injured extremity. The most common physical activity at the time of injury was landing from any type of jump (45.2%, 14/31). Anatomically, the knee was frequently in early flexion (58.8%, 10/17) and abducted (77.4%, 24/31); the foot was commonly abducted (87.1%, 27/31); and the hip was usually abducted (64.5%, 20/31) and flexed (80.6%, 25/31). Almost all players had another individual near them at the time of injury, with 90.3% (28/31) and 96.8% (30/31) having someone within 2ft and 5ft. Most ACL tears occurred inside the lane, regardless of mechanism of injury (26/31, 83.9%). ACL tears in the NBA were primarily not due to direct contact of the injured extremity but did have common anatomic patterns. The findings of this study can be used in the future to help reduce the risk of injury through the adaptation of current training activities.

On the Incentive Structure of Tournaments: Evidence from the National Basketball Association’s Draft Lottery

Tournament theory analyzes labor market outcomes where rewards are distributed on the basis of relative rank. An important factor in these outcomes is the likely return to additional effort. Using National Basketball Association game event data across two seasons, we estimate each team’s game player portfolio and find that teams who were in contention to win the draft lottery reduce their portfolio’s return differential during the 2017–2018 season but not for the 2018–2019 season. We attribute the change to the reduction in the probability of obtaining a higher pick for the 2019 draft.

Modeling the complexity of basketball games using marked mutually exciting point processes

The basketball game is rarely predictable due to the complexity of its scoring process. To deal with the complexity and forecast the game results, we develop a marked mutually exciting point process model for the scoring process. In the model, the dynamic of the scoring intensity is characterized by a mutually exciting point process. A time varying background rate is used in the intensity function to account for the non-homogeneity. The dependence between scoring events is incorporated into the model with two team-specific exponential exciting kernels. The distribution of the points obtained in each scoring event is modeled as a categorical distribution with parameters from a Dirichlet prior. An empirical Bayesian method and an expectation-maximization algorithm are developed to estimate the model parameters. We design a simulation algorithm to do pre-game and in-game predictions. An empirical study is conducted with National Basketball Association games in four seasons. It is showed that the proposed model outperforms the benchmark model both in the win-loss prediction and score prediction. Moreover, our model can obtain positive returns when betting in the point spread market. Besides forecasting, an index called added winning probability is designed based on the model to evaluate the players’ performance.

Optimal Timeout Choices in Clutch Situations in the NBA

When down by a possession in fourth quarter with the shot clock off and possessing the ball, National Basketball Association (NBA) coaches face a decision: take a timeout and draw up a play or let play continue. Utilizing play-by-play data for 16,839 NBA games, we find taking a timeout lowers a team's chances of a successful possession by 5.7 percentage points. Coaches might view taking a timeout as the safe decision, since blame for the loss would fall on the players for not executing the play, not on the coach for failing to call one. This suboptimal behavior suggests there is a principal–agent problem between team owners and coaches.

Shoulder and Elbow Injuries in National Basketball Association Athletes and Their Effects on Player Performance.

Shoulder and elbow function is essential to basic basketball actions. Outside of anterior shoulder instability, injuries in these joints are not well characterized in National Basketball Association (NBA) players. To describe the epidemiology and associated risk factors of shoulder and elbow injuries in NBA players and identify factors that influence player performance upon return to play. Descriptive epidemiology study. Historical injury data from the 2015-2020 NBA seasons were retrieved from Pro Sports Transactions, a public online database. An injury was defined as a health-related concern resulting in an absence of ≥1 NBA games. Primary measures included pre- and postinjury player efficiency rating (PER) and true shooting percentage (TS%) with interquartile ranges (IQRs), stratified by extremity dominance. Multivariate logistic regression analyses with stepwise regression were performed to identify risk factors associated with return-to-play performance. A total of 192 shoulder and elbow injuries were sustained among 126 NBA athletes, with incidence rates of 1.11 per 1000 game exposures (GEs) and 0.30 per 1000 GEs, respectively. Sprain/strain and general soreness were the most common injury types in both the shoulder and the elbow. In the 2 years after injury, baseline PER was achieved in all groups, except for players with dominant shoulder injuries (baseline PER, 16 [IQR, 14-18] vs 2-year PER, 13 [IQR 11-16]; P = .012). Younger age was associated with quicker return to baseline PER (odds ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.67-0.88]). Shoulder and elbow injuries did not negatively influence TS% upon return to play (baseline TS%, 0.55% [IQR, 0.51%-0.58%] vs 1-year TS%, 0.55% [IQR, 0.52%-0.58%]; P = .13). Dominant shoulder injuries negatively influenced PER during the first 2 seasons upon return to play in NBA players. Therefore, expectations that players with this type of injury immediately achieve baseline statistical production should be tempered. Shooting accuracy appears to remain unaffected after shoulder or elbow injury.

Revisiting the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis and the Loss Aversion Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association: Adding a Predicted Game Quality Perspective

The unparalleled popularity of major professional sports leagues in the United States has led to numerous sold-out events, regardless of the uncertainty surrounding the game's outcome. This phenomenon prompts us to examine the relationship between outcome uncertainty and attendance, specifically in matchups between high-quality teams compared to games involving lower-quality teams in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Based on our analyses, we have discovered a notable distinction in the relationship between outcome uncertainty and attendance in high-quality games. When analyzing high-quality games, we observed a linear relationship between these two variables that was only marginally significant. Conversely, when exploring nonhigh-quality games, a U-shaped relationship emerged between outcome uncertainty and attendance. While the attendance of nonhigh-quality games was influenced by varying levels of uncertainty, high-quality games attracted fans irrespective of the outcome uncertainty. This research provides valuable insights into the factors that contribute to the popularity and attendance of NBA games.

Return to Sport and Performance After Thumb Metacarpophalangeal Joint Collateral Ligament Surgery in the National Basketball Association.

Introduction Basketball players are at increased risk of thumb collateral ligament injury (ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) and radial collateral ligament (RCL)). Methods The National Basketball Association (NBA) players with thumb collateral ligament surgery were identified using publicly available data. Performance statistics, ligament injuries (UCL or RCL), return to sport (RTS) time, laterality, and injury dates were recorded. Cases were matched 1:1 with controls based on age (±1 year), body mass index (BMI), NBA experience (±1 year), and performance statistics prior to the index date. RTS was defined as playing in one NBA game postoperatively. Career longevity was evaluated. Summary statistics were calculated, and Student's t-tests (ɑ = 0.001) were performed. Results All 47 players identified with thumb collateral ligament surgeries returned to sport. Thirty-three players (age: 26.9 ± 3.0) had one year of postoperative NBA experience for performance analysis. Career length (case: 9.6 ± 4.1, control: 9.4 ± 4.3, p > 0.001) was not significantly different from controls (p > 0.001). The same season time to RTS (n = 20) was 7.1 ± 2.4 weeks. Off-season or season-ending surgery (n = 13) RTS time was 28.4 ± 18.7 weeks. Neither thumb collateral ligament (UCL, n = 7; RCL, n = 10; unknown, n = 16) had an identifiable difference between the groups when evaluating career length. Career length, games/season, and performance were not different for players who underwent surgery on their dominant thumb (63.6%, 21/33) compared to controls (p > 0.001). Conclusion RTS rate is high in NBA athletes undergoing thumb collateral ligament surgery. Players do not experience decreased performance or career length due to thumb collateral ligament surgery, regardless of a dominant or non-dominant thumb injury.

A causal approach for detecting team-level momentum in NBA games

This paper provides new evidence that team-level momentum exists in the National Basketball Association (NBA). The existence of momentum is one of the most prominent and longstanding questions in sports analytics. But for all its importance to announcers, coaches, and players, existing literature has found little evidence of momentum in professional basketball. This paper exploits a natural experiment in the flow of basketball games: television (TV) timeouts. Since TV timeouts occur at points exogenous to momentum, they enable the measurement of the effect of pauses in the game separate from the effect of strategy changes. We find TV timeouts cause an 11.2% decline in the number of points that the team with momentum subsequently scores. This effect is robust to the size of a run, substitutions, and game context. This result has far reaching implications in basketball strategy and the understanding of momentum in sports more broadly.

Facial injuries in the National Basketball Association: 2013-14 through 2017-18

ABSTRACT Objective To describe the epidemiology, mechanisms, treatment, and disability for facial injuries in National Basketball Association (NBA) athletes. Methods This was a retrospective descriptive epidemiological chart review using NBA Electronic Medical Record (EMR) system. Responses to injuries reported in games, practices, and other activities were used for all data analysis, except for game incidence rates. Incidence rates were calculated by the game-related facial injury incidence per total athlete exposure (player-games). Results There were 440 facial injuries among 263 athletes during the 5 NBA seasons with an overall single-season risk of 12.6% and a game incidence of 2.4 per 1000 athlete-exposures (95% CI: 2.18–2.68). The majority of injuries were lacerations (n = 159, 36.1%), contusions (n = 99, 22.5%), or fractures (n = 67, 15.2%), with ocular (n = 163, 37.0%) being the most commonly injured location. Sixty (13.6%) injuries resulted in at least one NBA game missed (224 cumulative player-games) with ocular injuries resulting in the most cumulative games missed (n = 167, 74.6%). Nasal fractures (n = 39, 58.2%) were the most common fracture location followed by ocular fractures (n = 12, 17.9%) but were less likely to lead to games missed (median = 1, IRQ: 1–3) than ocular (median = 7, IQR: 2–10) fractures. Conclusions An average of one in eight NBA players sustained a facial injury each season with ocular injuries being the most common location. While most facial injuries are minor, serious injuries, especially ocular fractures, can result in games missed.

Contestant Heterogeneity and Hack-a-Shaq Strategy in Team Efforts in Professional Basketball Games

Abstract: This article addresses the issue of contestant heterogeneity (CH) in team efforts in National Basketball Association games for the three seasons from 2013/14 to 2015/16. The results show that two teams’ total efforts regarding rebounds and fouls increase as CH becomes smaller. The evidence thus indicates that the two teams play harder the smaller that CH is. In the analysis of the effects of heterogeneity on the favorite’s and the underdog’s efforts, the results show that each tries harder when CH is reduced and makes less effort as it becomes larger. These results support the contamination hypothesis. The checks for robustness in the panel regressions and results of Hack-a-Shaq strategy reinforce these conclusions. The evidence also shows that the appearance of the previous year’s champion in a game decreases the two teams’ total number of rebounds and fouls. Overwhelming CH makes both favorites and underdogs exert less effort.

Bouncing between screens: social TV and Brazilian NBA audience

PurposeSports leagues have stood out in the entertainment industry due to their great economic value and cultural impact. This is the case of the American sports leagues, with emphasis on the National Basketball Association (NBA), whose largest Latin American market lies on Brazil. The aforementioned league’s audience is constantly growing, a fact that can be partially explained by the encouragement provided for its viewers to interact through social media, in a phenomenon called social TV. Accordingly, the aim of the present study is to investigate how social TV works as a means for Brazilian fans to coproduce their NBA broadcasting enjoyment through social media interactions.Design/methodology/approachThe authors conducted a netnography on the community of fans engaged in Twitter hashtag #NBAnaESPN, which was released by ESPN to promote audience integration during NBA games' broadcasting.FindingsA theorization about the role played by social TV in the way fan culture articulates through social media to enjoy broadcasting media products was herein presented. The findings of this study have evidenced three categories concerning the role played by television broadcasting, social media and the fandom in NBA consumption by Brazilian fans. Based on these findings, the authors got to the conclusion that social TV establishes a mediatized environment where fan culture can be articulated through social media to enable interactions about television broadcasting.Research limitations/implicationsThe study was limited to members of the Brazilian NBA audience who engage in the official social media of the league’s broadcasting.Originality/valueThe study heads toward a theoretical generalization based on the research results.

Performance Is Regained Within 2 Seasons After Quadriceps Tendon Tears in National Basketball Association Players

To characterize quadriceps tendon injuries over 30 National Basketball Association (NBA) seasons and assess the effects on player performance upon return to play. Partial and complete quadriceps tendon tears in NBA players between the 1990-1991 and 2021-2022 seasons were queried from a publicly available database. The primary outcomes were changes in player performance statistics obtained from each player's preindex season and first 2 postindex seasons. These interseason changes were compared with the changes of a healthy control cohort. Each injured player was matched with 2 controls using position, career length and win shares by season. The secondary measure of this study was the rate of return to play. Nine quadriceps tendon tears (6 partial, 3 complete) were identified in NBA players. Seven (78%) of the players returned to play in NBA games, missing 50 ± 30 games and 214 ± 112 calendar days on average. Comparisons between these player's preindex and first postindex seasons revealed significant declines in games played (73.2 ± 6.6 vs 41.8 ± 10.8, P= .009) and minutes per game (27.2 ± 2.9 vs 23.0 ± 3.7, P= .042). When compared with controls, only the decrease in games played was significant (-31.3 ± 7.6 vs 1.4 ± 8.2, P= .004). These findings were consistent when comparing preindex and second postindex seasons (games played: 79.6 ± 1.9 vs -28.4 ± 5.4, P= .006; minutes per game: 29.3 ± 2.6 vs 51.2 ± 4.6, P= .003). All other player performance metrics including player efficiency rating returned to near-baseline levels in the first 2 seasons after injury. NBA players with quadriceps tendon tears return to play in 78% of cases. These athletes achieved preinjury levels of performance within 1 to 2 seasons, but with reduced games played per season. IV, therapeutic case series.

Willingness to pay for policies to reduce health risks from COVID-19: Evidence from U.S. professional sports.

Airborne transmission of the COVID-19 virus increased the need for health policies to reduce transmission in congregate settings associated with minimal risk before the pandemic. While a large literature estimates tradeoffs between policies designed to reduce negative health outcomes, no empirical research addresses consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for health policies designed to reduce airborne virus transmission. Using survey data from 1381 fans of professional sports, we estimate consumers' WTP for reduced likelihood of coronavirus transmission through mask and social distancing policies using a stated preference approach. The results indicate increased attendance likelihood if the venue requires masks and limits attendance, with significant heterogeneity in WTP across risk scenarios and sports. We characterize consumers as casual fans who prefer a mask requirement but are indifferent to capacity constraints, strong fans who are anti-maskers and prefer capacity constraints, and a second group of casual fans with positive WTP under both mask and limited capacity requirements. For example, casual fans' WTP for masking, $38 per National Basketball Association (NBA) game attended, is more than double their WTP for capacity constraints only. Strong fans' WTP for attending capacity constrained NBA games was $490, more than 400% higher than the pre-pandemic average WTP of $105.

Associations of circadian change, travel distance, and their interaction with basketball performance: a retrospective analysis of 2014–2018 National Basketball Association data

ABSTRACT This investigation aimed to clarify the influence of circadian change and travel distance on National Basketball Association (NBA) team performance using a dataset from the 2014–2018 seasons. Data from 9,840 games were acquired from an open-access source. Game point differential and team free-throw percentage served as outcome variables. Time zone change (TZΔ) captured raw circadian delay/advance based on travel for a game and adjusted TZΔ (AdjTZΔ) evolved TZΔ by allowing acclimation to a novel TZ. We also further categorized AdjTZΔ into AdjTZΔ_A, which assumed travel the day before each game and AdjTZΔ_B, which assumed teams spent as many days in their home city as possible. Travel distance for each game was calculated. Linear mixed-effects modeling estimated associations, with games nested within team and year. Adjusted associations accounted for differences in team ability, whether the game was home or away, and whether the game occurred on the second half of a back-to-back game sequence. Greater circadian misalignment, regardless of delay or advance, and increasing travel distance negatively influenced NBA game performance. Yet, results suggest that performance outcomes may be more influenced by travel distance than circadian misalignment. Moreover, circadian misalignment and travel distance interacted to significantly influence game point differential. Furthermore, differences in results across analyses were observed between AdjTZΔ_A and AdjTZΔ_B, which suggests that subtle differences in constructed travel schedules can have notable impact on NBA performance outcomes. Lastly, playing on the second half of a back-to-back sequence emerged as a robust predictor of performance disadvantage, which corroborates the existing literature and provides further support for NBA schedule changes purposed to enhance competitive equity by reducing the number of back-to-back games across a season. These findings can help guide NBA teams on key strategies for reducing travel-related disadvantages and inform schedule makers on critical factors to prioritize across future schedules to attenuate competitive inequity from travel. Furthermore, they can help direct teams towards scenarios that are best to target for load management purposes due to the cumulative disadvantage arising from travel-related factors, opponent quality, game location, and game sequence.

Q-Ball: Modeling Basketball Games Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

Basketball is one of the most popular types of sports in the world. Recent technological developments have made it possible to collect large amounts of data on the game, analyze it, and discover new insights. We propose a novel approach for modeling basketball games using deep reinforcement learning. By analyzing multiple aspects of both the players and the game, we are able to model the latent connections among players' movements, actions, and performance, into a single measure - the Q-Ball. Using Q-Ball, we are able to assign scores to the performance of both players and whole teams. Our approach has multiple practical applications, including evaluating and improving players' game decisions and producing tactical recommendations. We train and evaluate our approach on a large dataset of National Basketball Association games, and show that the Q-Ball is capable of accurately assessing the performance of players and teams. Furthermore, we show that Q-Ball is highly effective in recommending alternatives to players' actions.

Application of data mining in basketball statistics

Abstract Data mining is a practice that employs mathematical algorithms to search for hidden information in a large amount of data to analyse the underlying pattern and law, and this practice is also known as knowledge discovery in data. The National Basketball Association (NBA) is the professional basketball game at the highest level in the world, and many events in an NBA game are used for statistical analysis. In this paper, data mining technology was applied based on event statistics to quantify the ability of basketball players and teams, the aim of the exercise being to predict basketball results. According to the NBA (2013–2018) season competition data, the quantitative evaluation method was firstly used to establish a player ability evaluation model, and the feature variable selection history game data weighting method was selected to construct a team player ability evaluation feature system. Secondly, machine learning algorithms such as linear regression, XGBoost and neural network models were used to predict the player performance. Considering the randomness and uncertainty of sports competitions, this paper deploys a combination of data mining algorithms and statistical simulation methods to predict the uncertainty of events, and the results indicate a good prediction effect. Therefore, this combined method is worthy of being applied in the evaluation system of team players and in game prediction.

Integrating Advanced Statistics to Predict the Outcome of National Basketball Association Games with Machine Learning

Sports stats and analysis has been propelled by sports fans through the ages. It has evolved into a much more complex and technologically advanced system of statistical encapsulation. Due to a plethora of data available and computerization of these data, the demand for sports advice and evaluation has drastically increased. The National Basketball Association (NBA) has acclimatized to these standards. In this study, win-loss percentage for hybrid basketball game scheme was calculated using designed features. The study takes 10 NBA seasons into account ranging from 2010-2021. Using 3 seasons of NBA data was deduced to be the right method. Hence, this can help calculate an accurate model for the season to follow. The final win-loss percentage was predicted by logistic regression, artificial neural networks (ANN).

The impact of differing audience sizes on referees and team performance from a North American perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic provides a natural experimental framework to comprehensively test the effect of crowds on both referees and players. We examine this from a North American perspective, using data from three major leagues: the National Basketball Association (NBA), National Football League (NFL) and National Hockey League (NHL). In all three leagues in the 2020–2021 season, matches were played either in empty stadiums or before diverse audience sizes. We find that the lockdown affects NBA and NFL results, by lowering the prospects of winning and the expected scoring points of the home team, when games are played without an audience. Conversely, the lockdown does not substantially influence the outcomes of NHL games. We also examine the effect of audience size on game outcomes using historical observations from the past decade, when no lockdown measures were in force. Interestingly, a larger audience size increases the chance of winning and the expected scoring points of the visiting team for NFL games. No significant effect of the audience size on match outcomes is observed for NBA or NHL games. Regarding referee decisions, spectators do not significantly influence referee calls of NHL matches. As for NBA and NFL, the lockdown significantly increases the total number of referee calls but does not prompt more biased decisions towards either of the teams. Finally, a larger audience leads to referee calls more favourable to the visiting team for NFL games. These results extend the literature regarding crowd pressure on the behaviour of players and officials, with an indication that the specific sports activity has a pivotal role in the response to a cheering audience.

Consumption of the National Basketball Association in Brazil: the motives of distant fans

Aim: This study aimed to analyze, through games, the motives for the consumption of the National Basketball Association (NBA) by Brazilian fans and the influence on the consumption intentions of these fans. Methods: The study has a quantitative approach and used an online questionnaire consisting of nine motives for sports consumption and a dimension to analyze behavioral intentions. The sample consisted of 336 individuals over 18 years of age who declared that they support a team in the competition. Data were analyzed using a two-step Structural Equation Modeling in Amos 26.0. Results: The average age of respondents was 24.20 years (±6.70), mostly men (91.7%), with complete high school (45.8%), single (83.6%), who watch 3 to 5 NBA games per week (53.6 %), mostly through the internet (56.8%), and who do not usually buy NBA-licensed products (58.0%). Analysis of the causal model indicated that both vicarious achievement (β = 0.55; p < 0.01) and social interaction (β = 0.28; p < 0.01) are motives that positively influenced behavioral intentions related to NBA. Conclusion: Motives such as the acquisition of knowledge, drama, interest in basketball, and knowledge of the game are highly valued by Brazilian fans who consume the NBA. In addition, the fans' sense of accomplishment with their team's victory and the social interaction offered by the games, even if distant, are important factors that influence the behavioral intentions of these fans.