NASA Global Research Articles

Simulating PACE Global Ocean Radiances.

The NASA PACE mission is a hyper-spectral radiometer planned for launch in the next decade. It is intended to provide new information on ocean biogeochemical constituents by parsing the details of high resolution spectral absorption and scattering. It is the first of its kind for global applications and as such, poses challenges for design and operation. To support pre-launch mission development and assess on-orbit capabilities, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has developed a dynamic simulation of global water-leaving radiances, using an ocean model containing multiple ocean phytoplankton groups, particulate detritus, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), and chromophoric dissolved organic carbon (CDOC) along with optical absorption and scattering processes at 1 nm spectral resolution. The purpose here is to assess the skill of the dynamic model and derived global radiances. Global bias, uncertainty, and correlation are derived using available modern satellite radiances at moderate spectral resolution. Total chlorophyll, PIC, and the absorption coefficient of CDOC (aCDOC), are simultaneously assimilated to improve the fidelity of the optical constituent fields. A 5-year simulation showed statistically significant (P <0.05) comparisons of chlorophyll (r = 0.869), PIC (r = 0.868), and aCDOC (r = 0.890) with satellite data. Additionally, diatoms (r = 0.890), cyanobacteria (r = 0.732), and coccolithophores (r = 0.716) were significantly correlated with in situ data. Global assimilated distributions of optical constituents were coupled with a radiative transfer model (Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model, OASIM) to estimate normalized water-leaving radiances at 1 nm for the spectral range 250–800 nm. These unassimilated radiances were within −0.074 mW cm−2 μm1 sr−1 of MODIS-Aqua radiances at 412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667 nm. This difference represented a bias of −10.4% (model low). A mean correlation of 0.706 (P < 0.05) was found with global distributions of MODIS radiances. These results suggest skill in the global assimilated model and resulting radiances. The reported error characterization suggests that the global dynamical simulation can support some aspects of mission design and analysis. For example, the high spectral resolution of the simulation supports investigations of band selection. The global nature of the radiance representations supports investigations of satellite observing scenarios. Global radiances at bands not available in current and past missions support investigations of mission capability.

Forecasting Ocean Chlorophyll in the Equatorial Pacific.

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012–2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Niño event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015–2016 El Niño. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p < 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R = 0.33), 8-month (R = 0.42) and 9-month (R = 0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 μg chl L−1 for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 μg chl L−1 for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 μg chl L−1) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 μg chl L−1). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Niño events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

NASA’s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Investigation

Abstract The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) investigation was a multiyear field campaign designed to improve understanding of the physical processes that control hurricane formation and intensity change, specifically the relative roles of environmental and inner-core processes. Funded as part of NASA’s Earth Venture program, HS3 conducted 5-week campaigns during the hurricane seasons of 2012–14 using the NASA Global Hawk aircraft, along with a second Global Hawk in 2013 and a WB-57f aircraft in 2014. Flying from a base at Wallops Island, Virginia, the Global Hawk could be on station over storms for up to 18 h off the East Coast of the United States and up to about 6 h off the western coast of Africa. Over the 3 years, HS3 flew 21 missions over nine named storms, along with flights over two nondeveloping systems and several Saharan air layer (SAL) outbreaks. This article summarizes the HS3 experiment, the missions flown, and some preliminary findings related to the rapid intensification and outflow structure of Hurricane Edouard (2014) and the interaction of Hurricane Nadine (2012) with the SAL.

A comparison of very short lived halocarbon (VSLS) and DMS aircraft measurements in the tropical west Pacific from CAST, ATTREX and CONTRAST

Abstract. We present a comparison of aircraft measurements of halogenated very short lived substances (VSLSs) and dimethyl sulphide (DMS, C2H6S) from a co-ordinated campaign in January–February 2014 in the tropical west Pacific. Measurements were made on the NASA Global Hawk, NCAR Gulfstream-V High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (GV HIAPER) and UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe-146 (see Sect. 2.2) using four separate gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) instruments: one operated by the University of Miami (UoM), one from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and two from the University of York (UoY). DMS was measured on the BAe-146 and GV. The instruments were inter-calibrated for halocarbons during the campaign period using two gas standards on separate scales: a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) SX-3581 standard representative of clean low-hydrocarbon air, and an Essex canister prepared by UoM, representative of coastal air, which was higher in VSLS and hydrocarbon content. UoY and NCAR use the NOAA scale/standard for VSLS calibration, and UoM uses a scale based on dilutions of primary standards calibrated by GC with FID (flame ionisation detector) and AED (atomic emission detector). Analysis of the NOAA SX-3581 standard resulted in good agreement for CH2Cl2, CHCl3, CHBr3, CH2Br2, CH2BrCl, CHBrCl2, CHBr2Cl, CH3I, CH2ICl and CH2I2 (average relative standard deviation (RSD) &lt; 10 %). Agreement was in general slightly poorer for the UoM Essex canister with an RSD of &lt; 13 %. Analyses of CHBrCl2 and CHBr3 in this standard however showed significant variability, most likely due to co-eluting contaminant peaks, and a high concentration of CHBr3, respectively. These issues highlight the importance of calibration at atmospherically relevant concentrations ( ∼ 0.5–5 ppt for VSLSs; see Fig. 5 for individual ranges). The UoY in situ GC-MS measurements on board the BAe-146 compare favourably with ambient data from NCAR and UoM; however the UoY whole-air samples showed a negative bias for some lower-volatility compounds. This systematic bias could be attributed to sample line losses. Considering their large spatial variability, DMS and CH3I displayed good cross-platform agreement without any sampling bias, likely due to their higher volatility. After a correction was performed based upon the UoY in situ vs. whole-air data, all four instrument datasets show good agreement across a range of VSLSs, with combined mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of the four platforms throughout the vertical profiles ranging between 2.2 (CH2Br2) and 15 (CH3I) % across a large geographic area of the tropical west Pacific. This study shows that the international VSLS calibration scales and instrumental techniques discussed here are in generally good agreement (within ∼ 10 % across a range of VSLSs), but that losses in aircraft sampling lines can add a major source of uncertainty. Overall, the measurement uncertainty of bromocarbons during these campaigns is much less than the uncertainty in the quantity of VSLS bromine estimated to reach the stratosphere of between 2 and 8 pptv.

Combining Tandem-X InSAR and simulated GEDI lidar observations for forest structure mapping

Abstract NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), to be deployed on the International Space Station (ISS) in 2018, will provide billions of measurements of ground elevation and forest vertical structure. GEDI will acquire data only along transects or tracks, with between-track spacing of about 500 m. To fill the gaps in between these tracks and potentially produce higher spatial resolution products, appropriate fusion strategies between GEDI observations and other spatially contiguous datasets should be explored. One source of global data on canopy structure comes from the TanDEM-X (TDX) mission, which uses the technique of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to estimate surface structure. The goal of this paper is to explore the fusion of GEDI data with TDX for canopy height retrievals. In particular we examined the improvement in TDX height retrievals from a widely used scattering model – the Random Volume over Ground (RVoG) model using ancillary topographic data from simulated GEDI observations of surface elevation. Our study site is a mountainous, mixed-temperate forest: Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF). We started with a wall-to-wall lidar data set acquired by the Land Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS) that provides a close analogue to anticipated GEDI waveforms. We derived a reference canopy height map and a reference bare earth digital terrain model (DTM) using LVIS. We next simulated GEDI ground tracks over HBEF for the nominal one-year period and extracted these observations from the reference DTM. A series of experiments were then conducted to examine the impact of ancillary topographic information. Using two different sets of TDX acquisitions, we compared height from RVoG respectively using no external DTM, the full LVIS DTM, and the DTM derived from simulated GEDI data against reference canopy heights at 90 m spatial resolution. With no external DTM to remove the ground phase, the RVoG model estimated heights with the best RMSE error (of the two TDX acquisitions dates) of 4.3 m and a bias of 2.5 m. Using the full LVIS DTM, results improved to 3.5 m RMSE and a bias of 1.3 m. Using the simulated GEDI DTM, the RMSE was 4.6 m with a bias of 1.8 m. The agreement between predicted and actual heights was good, ranging from an r2 of 0.39 (GEDI DTM) to 0.71 (p-value

Dynamics of Fractional Vegetation Coverage and Its Relationship with Climate and Human Activities in Inner Mongolia, China

Long-term remote sensing normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets have been widely used in monitoring vegetation changes. In this study, the NASA Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g dataset was used as the data source, and the dimidiate pixel model, intensity analysis, and residual analysis were used to analyze the changes of vegetation coverage in Inner Mongolia—from 1982 to 2010—and their relationships with climate and human activities. This study also explored vegetation changes in Inner Mongolia with respect to natural factors and human activities. The results showed that the estimated vegetation coverage exhibited a high correlation (0.836) with the actual measured values. The increased vegetation coverage area (49.2% of the total area) was larger than the decreased area (43.3%) from the 1980s to the 1990s, whereas the decreased area (57.1%) was larger than the increased area (35.6%) from the 1990s to the early 21st century. This finding indicates that vegetation growth in the 1990s was better than that in the other two decades. Intensity analysis revealed that changes in the average annual rate from the 1990s to the early 21st century were relatively faster than those in the 1980s–1990s. During the 1980s–1990s, the gain of high vegetation coverage areas was active, and the loss was dormant; in contrast, the gain and loss of low vegetation coverage areas were both dormant. In the 1990s to the early 21st century, the gains of high and low vegetation coverage areas were both dormant, whereas the losses were active. During the study period, areas of low vegetation coverage were converted into ones with higher coverage, and areas of high vegetation coverage were converted into ones with lower coverage. The vegetation coverage exhibited a good correlation (R2 = 0.60) with precipitation, and the positively correlated area was larger than the negatively correlated area. Human activities not only promote the vegetation coverage, but also have a destructive effect on vegetation, and the promotion effect during 1982 to 2000 was larger than from 2001 to 2010, while, the destructive effect was larger from 2000 to 2010.

The Transit-Time Distribution from the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Surface

Abstract The distribution of transit times from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface is a fundamental property of tropospheric transport. Here, the authors present an analysis of the transit-time distribution (TTD) since air last contacted the NH midlatitude surface, as simulated by the NASA Global Modeling Initiative Chemistry Transport Model. Throughout the troposphere, the TTD is characterized by young modes and long tails. This results in mean transit times or “mean ages” Γ that are significantly larger than their corresponding modal transit times or “modal ages” τmode, especially in the NH, where Γ ≈ 0.5 yr, while τmode &amp;lt; 20 days. In addition, the shape of the TTD changes throughout the troposphere as the ratio of the spectral width Δ—the second temporal moment of the TTD—to the mean age decreases sharply in the NH from ~2.5 at NH high latitudes to ~0.7 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Decreases in Δ/Γ in the SH reflect a narrowing of the TTD relative to its mean and physically correspond to changes in the contributions of fast transport paths relative to slow eddy-diffusive recirculations. It is shown that fast transport paths control the patterns and seasonal cycles of idealized 5- and 50-day loss tracers in the Arctic and the tropics, respectively. The relationship between different TTD time scales and the idealized loss tracers, therefore, is conditional on the shape of the TTD.

Evaluating model parameterizations of submicron aerosol scattering and absorption with in situ data from ARCTAS 2008

Abstract. Accurate modeling of the scattering and absorption of ultraviolet and visible radiation by aerosols is essential for accurate simulations of atmospheric chemistry and climate. Closure studies using in situ measurements of aerosol scattering and absorption can be used to evaluate and improve models of aerosol optical properties without interference from model errors in aerosol emissions, transport, chemistry, or deposition rates. Here we evaluate the ability of four externally mixed, fixed size distribution parameterizations used in global models to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption at three wavelengths using in situ data gathered during the 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) campaign. The four models are the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Combo model, GEOS-Chem v9-02, the baseline configuration of a version of GEOS-Chem with online radiative transfer calculations (called GC-RT), and the Optical Properties of Aerosol and Clouds (OPAC v3.1) package. We also use the ARCTAS data to perform the first evaluation of the ability of the Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP v2.1) to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption when in situ data on the aerosol size distribution are used, and examine the impact of different mixing rules for black carbon (BC) on the results. We find that the GMI model tends to overestimate submicron scattering and absorption at shorter wavelengths by 10–23 %, and that GMI has smaller absolute mean biases for submicron absorption than OPAC v3.1, GEOS-Chem v9-02, or GC-RT. However, the changes to the density and refractive index of BC in GC-RT improve the simulation of submicron aerosol absorption at all wavelengths relative to GEOS-Chem v9-02. Adding a variable size distribution, as in ASP v2.1, improves model performance for scattering but not for absorption, likely due to the assumption in ASP v2.1 that BC is present at a constant mass fraction throughout the aerosol size distribution. Using a core-shell mixing rule in ASP overestimates aerosol absorption, especially for the fresh biomass burning aerosol measured in ARCTAS-B, suggesting the need for modeling the time-varying mixing states of aerosols in future versions of ASP.

A multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (TransCom-VSLS): linking oceanic emissions and tropospheric transport for a reconciled estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection of bromine

Abstract. The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). Eleven global models or model variants participated (nine chemical transport models and two chemistry–climate models) by simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), over a 20-year period (1993–2012). Except for three model simulations, all others were driven offline by (or nudged to) reanalysed meteorology. The overarching goal of TransCom-VSLS was to provide a reconciled model estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of bromine from these gases, to constrain the current measurement-derived range, and to investigate inter-model differences due to emissions and transport processes. Models ran with standardised idealised chemistry, to isolate differences due to transport, and we investigated the sensitivity of results to a range of VSLS emission inventories. Models were tested in their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial distribution of VSLS at the surface, using measurements from NOAA's long-term global monitoring network, and in the tropical troposphere, using recent aircraft measurements – including high-altitude observations from the NASA Global Hawk platform. The models generally capture the observed seasonal cycle of surface CHBr3 and CH2Br2 well, with a strong model–measurement correlation (r ≥ 0.7) at most sites. In a given model, the absolute model–measurement agreement at the surface is highly sensitive to the choice of emissions. Large inter-model differences are apparent when using the same emission inventory, highlighting the challenges faced in evaluating such inventories at the global scale. Across the ensemble, most consistency is found within the tropics where most of the models (8 out of 11) achieve best agreement to surface CHBr3 observations using the lowest of the three CHBr3 emission inventories tested (similarly, 8 out of 11 models for CH2Br2). In general, the models reproduce observations of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 obtained in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) at various locations throughout the Pacific well. Zonal variability in VSLS loading in the TTL is generally consistent among models, with CHBr3 (and to a lesser extent CH2Br2) most elevated over the tropical western Pacific during boreal winter. The models also indicate the Asian monsoon during boreal summer to be an important pathway for VSLS reaching the stratosphere, though the strength of this signal varies considerably among models. We derive an ensemble climatological mean estimate of the stratospheric bromine SGI from CHBr3 and CH2Br2 of 2.0 (1.2–2.5) ppt, ∼ 57 % larger than the best estimate from the most recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment Report. We find no evidence for a long-term, transport-driven trend in the stratospheric SGI of bromine over the simulation period. The transport-driven interannual variability in the annual mean bromine SGI is of the order of ±5 %, with SGI exhibiting a strong positive correlation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific. Overall, our results do not show systematic differences between models specific to the choice of reanalysis meteorology, rather clear differences are seen related to differences in the implementation of transport processes in the models.

Evaluation of global fine-resolution precipitation products and their uncertainty quantification in ensemble discharge simulations

Abstract. The applicability of six fine-resolution precipitation products, including precipitation radar, infrared, microwave and gauge-based products, using different precipitation computation recipes, is evaluated using statistical and hydrological methods in northeastern China. In addition, a framework quantifying uncertainty contributions of precipitation products, hydrological models, and their interactions to uncertainties in ensemble discharges is proposed. The investigated precipitation products are Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products (TRMM3B42 and TRMM3B42RT), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)/Noah, Asian Precipitation – Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and a Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP-MVK+) product. Two hydrological models of different complexities, i.e. a water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model and a physically based semi-distributed hydrological model, are employed to investigate the influence of hydrological models on simulated discharges. Results show APHRODITE has high accuracy at a monthly scale compared with other products, and GSMAP-MVK+ shows huge advantage and is better than TRMM3B42 in relative bias (RB), Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC), false alarm ratio, and critical success index. These findings could be very useful for validation, refinement, and future development of satellite-based products (e.g. NASA Global Precipitation Measurement). Although large uncertainty exists in heavy precipitation, hydrological models contribute most of the uncertainty in extreme discharges. Interactions between precipitation products and hydrological models can have the similar magnitude of contribution to discharge uncertainty as the hydrological models. A better precipitation product does not guarantee a better discharge simulation because of interactions. It is also found that a good discharge simulation depends on a good coalition of a hydrological model and a precipitation product, suggesting that, although the satellite-based precipitation products are not as accurate as the gauge-based products, they could have better performance in discharge simulations when appropriately combined with hydrological models. This information is revealed for the first time and very beneficial for precipitation product applications.

The NASA High-Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler

The High-Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP) is a dual-frequency (Ka- and Ku-bands), dual-beam (30° and 40° incidence angles), and conical scanning Doppler radar designed for operation on the NASA high-altitude (∼19 km) Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial System. HIWRAP was developed under the support of the NASA Instrument Incubator Program for studies of tropical storms and severe weather events. It utilizes solid-state transmitters along with a novel transmit and receive waveform scheme that results in a system with compact size, light weight, less power consumption, and lower cost compared to radars currently in use for precipitation and Doppler wind measurements. By combining volume backscattering measurements at Ku- and Ka-bands, HIWRAP is capable of imaging radar reflectivity and 3-D wind fields in clouds and precipitation. In addition, HIWRAP is also capable of measuring surface winds in an approach similar to SeaWinds on QuikSCAT. HIWRAP operating frequencies are similar to those used by the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar, making it suitable for providing airborne validation data for the GPM mission. This paper describes the scientific motivation for the development of HIWRAP as well as the system hardware, aircraft integration, and recent flight activities. Data from recent science flights are also presented.

Cirrus and the Earth system

Cirrus and the Earth system

How High is High? A Meta-Analysis of NASA-TLX Global Workload Scores

This paper presents a descriptive analysis of over 1000 global NASA Task Load Index (TLX; Hart &amp; Staveland, 1988) scores from over 200 publications. This analysis is similar to that which was suggested by Hart (2006). The frequency distributions and measures of central tendency presented will aid practitioners in understanding global NASA-TLX scores observed in system tests.

Tropospheric ozone variability in the tropics from ENSO to MJO and shorter timescales

Abstract. Aura OMI and MLS measurements are combined to produce daily maps of tropospheric ozone beginning October 2004. We show that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related inter-annual change in tropospheric ozone in the tropics is small in relation to combined intra-seasonal/Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and shorter timescale variability by a factor of ~ 3–10 (largest in the Atlantic). Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), taken as a proxy for convection, suggests that convection is a dominant driver of large-scale variability of tropospheric ozone in the Pacific from inter-annual (e.g., ENSO) to weekly periods. We compare tropospheric ozone and OLR satellite observations with two simulations: (1) the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) that uses observed sea surface temperatures and is otherwise free-running, and (2) the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model (CTM) that is driven by Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) analyses. It is shown that the CTM-simulated ozone accurately matches measurements for timescales from ENSO to intra-seasonal/MJO and even 1–2-week periods. The CCM simulation reproduces ENSO variability but not shorter timescales. These analyses suggest that a model used to delineate temporal and/or spatial properties of tropospheric ozone and convection in the tropics must reproduce both ENSO and non-ENSO variability.

Comparison of different fittings of drop spectra for rainfall retrievals

It is widely acknowledged that a thorough characterization of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) may address many needs regarding the remote sensing of precipitation, which is central to new research challenges related to the estimation and management of water resources. In particular, the third and higher moments (up to the sixth) of DSD are proportional to relevant hydrological and meteorological parameters (i.e., rain rate, liquid water content, radar reflectivity, and kinetic energy). Therefore, the retrieval process of these quantities is usually based upon higher-order statistics that are mainly influenced by the upper part of the DSD (i.e., its tail behavior). In this study, we first investigate the effects on rainfall integral parameters of truncating the DSD at upper drop diameters when assuming heavy- and light-tailed distributions. Then, we compare both the tails (i.e., large drops only) and the entire empirical distributions of thousands of disdrometer-measured raindrop spectra with four common theoretical distributions characterized by different tail behaviors (i.e., heavy- and light-tailed distributions): the Pareto, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions. In particular, we analyze the relative quality of each distribution (relative ranking) by means of a straightforward method. Observational data consist of 1-min spectra collected by two-dimensional video disdrometers (2DVD) during three pre-launch field campaigns of the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission located in (i) Rome (HyMeX SOP 1, (ii) Central Oklahoma (MC3E, ), and (iii) Eastern Iowa (IFloodS). The results obtained from the analysis of the three datasets were consistent with each other, and they show that the lighter-tailed distributions are in better agreement with the observed size spectra than the heavier-tailed distributions. However, we also found significant departures of empirical drop spectra from light-tailed distributions, especially when fitting only the tail of the distributions. These departures may imply a dramatic increase of uncertainty in the statistical estimation of high-order DSD moments, thus making the retrieval process unreliable.

Development of the GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model: evolution from MERRA to MERRA2

Abstract. The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA2) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System-5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is currently in use in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at a wide range of resolutions for a variety of applications. Details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the version in the original MERRA reanalysis are presented here. Results of a series of atmosphere-only sensitivity studies are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in physical parameterizations, and the impact of the newly implemented resolution-aware behavior on simulations at different resolutions is demonstrated. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used as part of the GMAO MERRA2 reanalysis, global mesoscale simulations at 10 km resolution through 1.5 km resolution, the real-time numerical weather prediction system, and for atmosphere-only, coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled atmosphere-chemistry simulations. The seasonal mean climate of the MERRA2 version of the GEOS-5 AGCM represents a substantial improvement over the simulated climate of the MERRA version at all resolutions and for all applications. Fundamental improvements in simulated climate are associated with the increased re-evaporation of frozen precipitation and cloud condensate, resulting in a wetter atmosphere. Improvements in simulated climate are also shown to be attributable to changes in the background gravity wave drag, and to upgrades in the relationship between the ocean surface stress and the ocean roughness. The series of resolution-aware parameters related to the moist physics was shown to result in improvements at higher resolutions and result in AGCM simulations that exhibit seamless behavior across different resolutions and applications.

Testing gridded land precipitation data and precipitation and runoff reanalyses (1982–2010) between 45° S and 45° N with normalised difference vegetation index data

Abstract. The realistic simulation of key components of the land-surface hydrological cycle – precipitation, runoff, evaporation and transpiration, in general circulation models of the atmosphere – is crucial to assess adverse weather impacts on environment and society. Here, gridded precipitation data from observations and precipitation and runoff fields from reanalyses were tested with satellite derived global vegetation index data for 1982–2010 and latitudes between 45° S and 45° N. Data were obtained from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM; analysed for 1998–2010 only) and precipitation and runoff reanalyses were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the NASA Global Modelling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). Annual land-surface precipitation was converted to annual potential vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) and was compared to mean annual normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) data measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR; 1982–1999) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 2001–2010). The effect of spatial resolution on the agreement between NPP and NDVI was investigated as well. The CRU and TRMM derived NPP agreed most closely with the NDVI data. The GPCP data showed weaker spatial agreement, largely because of their lower spatial resolution, but similar temporal agreement. MERRA Land and ERA Interim precipitation reanalyses showed similar spatial agreement to the GPCP data and good temporal agreement in semi-arid regions of the Americas, Asia, Australia and southern Africa. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis showed the lowest spatial agreement, which could only in part be explained by its lower spatial resolution. No reanalysis showed realistic interannual precipitation variations for northern tropical Africa. Inclusion of runoff in the NPP prediction resulted only in marginally better agreement for the MERRA Land reanalysis and slightly worse agreement for the NCEP/NCAR and ERA Interim reanalyses.

The Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013: Analyses and Forecasts in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

Abstract The major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) of 6 January 2013 is examined using output from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) near-real-time data assimilation system (DAS). GEOS-5 analyses showed that the SSW of January 2013 was a major warming by 1200 UTC 6 January, with a wave-2 vortex-splitting pattern. Upward wave activity flux from the upper troposphere (~23 December 2012) displaced the ~10-hPa polar vortex off the pole in a wave-1 pattern, enabling the poleward advection of subtropical values of Ertel potential vorticity (EPV) into a developing anticyclonic circulation region. While the polar vortex subsequently split (wave-2 pattern) the wave-2 forcing [upward Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux] was smaller than what was found in recent wave-2, SSW events, with most of the forcing located in the Pacific hemisphere. Investigation of a rapidly developing tropospheric weather system over the North Atlantic on 28–29 December 2012 showed strong transient upward wave activity flux from the storm with influences up to 10 hPa; however, the Pacific hemisphere wave forcing remained dominate at this time. Results from the GEOS-5 five-day forecasts showed that the forecasts accurately predicted the major SSW of January 2013. The overall success of the 5-day forecasts provides motivation to produce regular 10-day forecasts with GEOS-5, to better support studies of stratosphere–troposphere interaction.

A two-channel, tunable diode laser-based hygrometer for measurement of water vapor and cirrus cloud ice water content in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Abstract. The recently developed NOAA Water instrument is a two-channel, closed-path, tunable diode laser absorption spectrometer designed for the measurement of upper troposphere/lower stratosphere water vapor and enhanced total water (vapor + inertially enhanced condensed phase) from the NASA Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) or other high-altitude research aircraft. The instrument utilizes wavelength-modulated spectroscopy with second harmonic detection near 2694 nm to achieve high precision with a 79 cm double-pass optical path. The detection cells are operated under constant temperature, pressure, and flow conditions to maintain a constant sensitivity to H2O independent of the ambient sampling environment. An onboard calibration system is used to perform periodic in situ calibrations to verify the stability of the instrument sensitivity during flight. For the water vapor channel, ambient air is sampled perpendicular to the flow past the aircraft in order to reject cloud particles, while the total water channel uses a heated, forward-facing inlet to sample both water vapor and cloud particles. The total water inlet operates subisokinetically, thereby inertially enhancing cloud particle number in the sample flow and affording increased cloud water content sensitivity. The NOAA Water instrument was flown for the first time during the second deployment of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) in February–March 2013 on the NASA Global Hawk UAS. The instrument demonstrated a typical in-flight precision (1 s, 1σ) of better than 0.17 parts per million (ppm, 10−6 mol mol−1), with an overall H2O vapor measurement uncertainty of 5% ± 0.23 ppm. The inertial enhancement for cirrus cloud particle sampling under ATTREX flight conditions ranged from 33 to 48 for ice particles larger than 8 μm in diameter, depending primarily on aircraft altitude. The resulting ice water content detection limit (2σ) was 0.023–0.013 ppm, corresponding to approximately 2 μg m−3, with an estimated overall uncertainty of 20%.

Characterisation of quasi-stationary planetary waves in the Northern MLT during summer

Observations of planetary wave (PW) activity in the northern hemisphere, polar summer mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) are presented. Meteor winds from a northern hemisphere chain of SuperDARN radars have been used to monitor the meridional wind along a latitude band (51–66°N) in the MLT. A stationary PW-like longitudinal structure with a strong zonal PW number 1 characteristic is persistently observed year-to-year during summer. Here we characterize the amplitude and the phase structure of this wave in the MLT. The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) of the NASA Global Modelling and Assimilation Office has been used to evaluate possible sources of the observed longitudinal perturbation in the mesospheric meridional wind by investigating the amplitudes and phases of PWs in the underlying atmosphere. The investigation shows that neither gravity wave modulation by lower atmospheric PWs nor direct propagation of PWs from the lower atmosphere are a significant cause of the observed longitudinal perturbation. However, the data are not of sufficient scope to investigate longitudinal differences in gravity wave sources, or to separate the effects of instabilities and inter-hemispheric propagation as possible causes for the large PW present in the summer MLT.