Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Research Articles

Нагорный Карабах — 2023: проблемы международно-правовой квалификации

The Second Karabakh War of 2020, which ended with the defeat of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) and Armenia supporting it, reversed the balance of power but did not resolve the conflict. The absolute superiority of Azerbaijan — both military and political, the insufficient clarity of the Statement of 9 November, the remaining contradictions between the parties — all this created the preconditions for the Third War, which began on 19 September 2023 and lasted only one day. The eventual defeat of the NKR and the transfer of the entire region under Azerbaijani jurisdiction, however, does not appear to be the final point: Azerbaijan demands the eight occupied villages and insists on the extraterritoriality of the Zangezur corridor. This article continues an article published in 2021 and dedicated to the legal aspects of the 2020 conflict. The author describes developments after 2020; analyses the use of force and assesses new interpretations of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter; gives qualification to the blockade of the Lachin corridor and the Armenian exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh in autumn 2020; examines some aspects of the right to self-determination that became relevant in 2023; defines the remaining territorial disputes; and assesses the effectiveness of the settlement formats. In legal terms, the 2023 conflict significantly improved the position of Armenia and the Armenians of Nagorny Karabakh; in the final analysis, it can be argued that the blockade and the 19 September attack created the preconditions for a remedial secession, the realisation of which, however, is unrealistic. Some of the new qualifications are based on scientific hypotheses that reflect progressive trends in the development of law rather than being an established element of it. Politically, on the contrary, the conflict has seriously worsened Armenia’s situation. There are several scenarios for the development of events. The first assumes the satisfaction of all Azerbaijan’s claims and Armenia’s transition to a subordinate position; the second — modification of the status quo through compromise regimes built on the basis of mutual respect and equality; the third — restoration of the status quo as it existed or should have existed at the time of the collapse of the USSR. This scenario seems realistic and fair; its realisation, however, is impossible without the participation of external actors: Russia, Iran, Turkey, the West, the US and China. Unfortunately, the position of these actors is not consolidated, while the Caucasus is still perceived as a peripheral region unworthy of the attention paid to some other regions.

The De Facto State of Nagorno-Karabakh: Historical and Geopolitical Perspectives

The article analyses the complex history of Nagorny Karabakh and the wider Caucasus and its implications for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). Special attention is paid to the geopolitical role of Iran, Turkey, Russia, the United Kingdom and other states. It contends that the Second Karabakh War of 2020 and its aftermath signalled a new historical stage in the geopolitical rearrangement of the region, primarily between Russia and Turkey, a situation reminiscent of the deal between Lenin’s Russia and Atatürk’s Turkey a century ago. Arguably, it is this rearrangement—as well as the ensuing reconfiguration of Russia’s and Turkey’s relationships with both Armenia and Azerbaijan—rather than the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic’s relationship with its patron state of Armenia that will determine the future existence of the NKR as a de facto state.

Geopolitics of separatism

Geopolitics of separatism

Энергетическая безопасность постсоветских де-факто государств: вызовы, конфликты и взаимозависимость

The article represents an effort to conceptualize energy security issues of the four post-Soviet de facto states: Republic of Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, and Republic of South Ossetia. The author considers: relevant conceptual issues; the structure of post-Soviet de facto states’ energy consumption; the role of energy security issues in the context of post-Soviet de facto states’ relations of conflict and interdependence with their parent states; issues of development of these states’ energy sectors to enhance their energy security; societal and environmental aspects of de facto states’ energy security. The author concludes that the energy security agendas of these four polities are largely similar. Unlike major economies, they do not face a primary threat to their oil supplies, while the issue of supplying residential consumers with electricity and natural gas is of utmost importance to them. The energy security agenda plays an ambiguous role in the context of the relationships between these four de facto states and their parent states. In some cases, it exacerbates existing contradictions, while in other cases, it facilitates peaceful and constructive resolution. At present, the majority of post-Soviet de facto states are unable to fully meet their gas and electricity needs, with only Transnistria being capable of exporting electricity, provided that it receives a sufficient volume of gas from external sources. Energy problems play an ambiguous role in the conflicts between post-Soviet de facto states and their parent states. Sometimes the parties use these problems as leverage for pressure. However, in other cases, finding mutually acceptable solution for energy issues becomes an incentive for constructive cooperation. Sometimes parent states even bear the burden of debts and other expenses because they still claim sovereignty over their “breakaway territories”. Overall, due to extremely limited economic potentials and nonrecognition, post-Soviet de facto states have achieved, at best, limited results in safeguarding their energy security.

The Artsakh Issue in Its Historical-Legal Development

Artsakh or Karabakh is an integral part of historic Armenia. Felling under the rule of various conquerors throughout the history, Artsakh remained Armenian, sometimes possessing also a semi-independent status. The legal history of the Artsakh dispute can be traced back to the 1813 Treaty of Gulistan, when Persia ceded sovereignty of Artsakh to the Russian Empire. After the collapse of the Russian Empire, during 1918-1920 Artsakh was disputed by the Republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan, because of the administrative policy of the former Russian Empire to unite the national territories into mixed administrative units. After being incorporated into the Soviet Union, again because of the same administrative police, the Armenian populated Artsakh was incorporated into Soviet Azerbaijan as an autonomous district (marz). Utilizing Article 3 of the "Law on Procedure for Resolving Questions Connected with a Union Republic’s Secession from the USSR,” which provides right to the people of autonomous republics and autonomous formations to independently decide their future state-legal status, on September 2, 1991, a joint session of the People's Deputies of the Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region and Shahumian regional councils, declared the establishment of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR). This move was followed by a referendum, where 99,9 percent voted for independence of NKR. After this vote until now, Azerbaijan tries to seize Artsakh by force, which is contrary to international public and humanitarian law. This article aims to study the status of Artsakh in the context of the above historical-legal developments. It clearly demonstrates that the right of people of Artsakh to independence is undisputable.

Patron-Client Relations in the Post-Soviet Area in the 21st Century—The Case Study of Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic

AbstractThe aim of the article is to analyze Armenia’s limited capacity to function as a patron of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). In the article, the author focused on the analysis of 3 levels of relations on the line Yerevan-Stepanakert: (1) the political dimension of bilateral relations; (2) the economic dimension of bilateral relations; (3) the security policy dimension, in particular the significance of the last phase of the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (2020) for the further shape of relations. In addition, the features that distinguish Armenia’s relations with the NKR from Russia’s relations with the de facto states for which it is a patron are highlighted. The results prove that mid-level states have a limited capacity to be a patron for de facto states, including being a guarantor of their survival.

Between sustainability and uncertainty. Political systems of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic – conditions and features

The article revisits the issue of the political functionality and social organization in Caucasian de facto entities. Basing on theoretical approaches regarding the phenomenon of unrecognized states, the paper examines cases of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) with the focus on internal and external factors, including historical legacy, system of power, weakness of the mother state as well as support of the metropolitan state. It concludes that de facto entities demonstrate the vitality of their societies and political maturity, but their future depends mostly on international politics.

Elections without recognition: presidential and parliamentary contests in Abkhazia and Nagorny Karabakh

While various debates have arisen on the relationship between non-recognition and democratization, empirical case studies on elections in de facto states are extremely rare. This article examines recent presidential and parliamentary elections in two unrecognized or partially recognized de facto states in the South Caucasus, namely Abkhazia and Nagorny Karabakh. Accordingly, the emphasis is on the Abkhazian presidential elections of August 2011 and August 2014 and parliamentary elections of 2007 and 2012, along with the most recent executive and legislative elections in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) in July 2012 and May 2015 respectively. On the basis of extensive interviews and participant observation, this article demonstrates how although both parliamentary and presidential elections in Abkhazia are competitive, they favour the titular nation, while in homogeneous Nagorny Karabakh fear of a renewed conflagration has until recently produced relatively uncompetitive presidential contests. The dynamics of majoritarian versus party list, party, ethnic and gender representation are examined in each case. The case studies reveal weak political parties, but the NKR has made incremental changes to the electoral law that might encourage a less personality-based parliamentary system.

Armenia's International Responsibility and UN Security Council Resolutions on Nagorno-Karabakh in April-November 1993

The working paper discusses Armenia's international responsibility embodied within UN Security Council resolutions of April - November 1993.The speech was delivered at an international conference in Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, devoted to the 20th anniversary celebrations of its freedom and independence.

The Geographic Distribution of Turtles in Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (Artsakh)

The turtles of the Caucasus are poorly studied, and basic data on their geographic distribution in some Caucasian regions are poorly collated, hard to access, or entirely lacking. We present a comprehensive review of turtle localities in such a region, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (Artsakh), based on literature records, personal observations, and museum specimens. The compiled data for the 3 native species (Emys orbicularis, Mauremys caspica, and Testudo graeca) show that their distributions in this region are restricted to 3 areas of low elevation. In the northeast, turtles can be found in the Kura River drainage. In the south and west, turtles can be found in the Arax River drainage. The distributions of species within these areas vary, with E. orbicularis being the most restricted by elevation. We note that the 3 regions here form part of an important transect from the interior Arax drainage (in the Ararat region of western Armenia) to near its confluence with the Kura drainage (in southern Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh) to the Kura drainage sensu stricto (in northeast Armenia). Future studies of turtles in these areas will play an important role in understanding the historical biogeography of Caucasian turtles.

Population Trends in a Contested Pseudo-State: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh

A U.S. population geographer specializing in the former Soviet Union surveys the results of an October 2005 census conducted in a contested pseudo-state known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). Data from the enumeration provide the first credible information about recent population characteristics, including nationality composition and migration from the war-torn republic. The data make it possible to ascertain the crude magnitudes of population losses in the republic's constituent rayons as well as changes resulting from deaths and expulsion of ethnic Armenians and/or Azerbaijanis. Changes documented since the last (1989) Soviet census in the region indicate that the current republic's population differs quite dramatically from that of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of Azerbaijan, complicating efforts to broker a lasting peace agreement between the pseudostate's two neighbors. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23, 1 figure, 1 table, 36 references.