Myocardial Infarction Event Rates Research Articles

Comparison of Long-term Efficacy of Domestic TAVR vs. Corevalve

Aim: To assess the long-term effects of domestic valves and compare them with similar products to demonstrate non-inferiority and provide guidance for valve selection in severe aortic stenosis patients. Methods: The study comprised two parts: evaluating the long-term effects of domestic valves through follow-up data, and conducting a meta-analysis to assess the long-term efficacy of Corevalve. Results: Both valves showed high cumulative all-cause mortality and cardiac mortality rates at 5 years post-surgery, with statistically significant differences. There were also significant differences in the cumulative incidence rates of new pacemaker implantation and cardiac rehospitalization. Stroke and myocardial infarction event rates within 5 years were both below 10%, with no statistically significant differences. Conclusion: Domestic valves demonstrated favorable long-term effects, performing comparably or even superior to Corevalve in certain aspects.

Percutaneous coronary intervention versus medical therapy in stable angina: a matched cohort study

ObjectiveIt is uncertain whether percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in addition to optimal medical therapy (OMT) can reduce adverse clinical events in the long term as compared with OMT alone in...

When Does a Calcium Score Equate to Secondary Prevention?: Insights From the Multinational CONFIRM Registry

BackgroundElevated coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores in subjects without prior atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) have been shown to be associated with increased cardiovascular risk. ObjectivesThe authors sought to determine at what level individuals with elevated CAC scores who have not had an ASCVD event should be treated as aggressively for cardiovascular risk factors as patients who have already survived an ASCVD event. MethodsThe authors performed a cohort study comparing event rates of patients with established ASVCD to event rates in persons with no history of ASCVD and known calcium scores to ascertain at what level elevated CAC scores equate to risk associated with existing ASCVD. In the multinational CONFIRM (Coronary CT Angiography Evaluation for Clinical Outcomes: An International Multicenter) registry, the authors compared ASCVD event rates in persons without a history of myocardial infarction (MI) or revascularization (as categorized on CAC scores) to event rates in those with established ASCVD. They identified 4,511 individuals without known coronary artery disease (CAC) who were compared to 438 individuals with established ASCVD. CAC was categorized as 0, 1 to 100, 101 to 300, and >300. Cumulative major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), MACE plus late revascularization, MI, and all-cause mortality incidence was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method for persons with no ASCVD history by CAC level and persons with established ASCVD. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to calculate HRs with 95% CIs, which were adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. ResultsThe mean age was 57.6 ± 12.4 years (56% male). In total, 442 of 4,949 (9%) patients experienced MACEs over a median follow-up of 4 years (IQR: 1.7-5.7 years). Incident MACEs increased with higher CAC scores, with the highest rates observed with CAC score >300 and in those with prior ASCVD. All-cause mortality, MACEs, MACE + late revascularization, and MI event rates were not statistically significantly different in those with CAC >300 compared with established ASCVD (all P > 0.05). Persons with a CAC score <300 had substantially lower event rates. ConclusionsPatients with CAC scores >300 are at an equivalent risk of MACE and its components as those treated for established ASCVD. This observation, that those with CAC >300 have event rates comparable to those with established ASCVD, supplies important background for further study related to secondary prevention treatment targets in subjects without prior ASCVD with elevated CAC. Understanding the CAC scores that are associated with ASCVD risk equivalent to stable secondary prevention populations may be important for guiding the intensity of preventive approaches more broadly.

Prevalence and incidence of cardiovascular and renal diseases in type 1 compared with type 2 diabetes: A nationwide French observational study of hospitalized patients

BackgroundType 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) increase risks of cardiovascular (CV) and renal disease compared with diabetes-free populations. There are only a few studies comparing T1DM and T2DM for the relative risk of these clinical events. MethodsAll adult patients hospitalized in French hospitals in 2013 with at least 5 years of follow-up were identified and categorized by their diabetes status. A total of 50,623 patients with T1DM (age 61.4 ± 18.6, 53% male) and 425,207 patients with T2DM (age 68.6 ± 14.3, 55% male) were followed over a median period of 5.3 years (interquartile range: 2.8 - 5.8 years). Prevalence and event rates of myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), ischemic stroke, chronic kidney disease (CKD), all-cause death and CV death were assessed with age stratification of 10-year intervals. For clinical events during follow-up, we report hazard ratios (HRs) in T1DM relative to T2DM. ResultsThe age and sex-adjusted prevalence of CV diseases was higher in T2DM for ages above 40 years whereas the prevalence of CKD was more common in T1DM between ages 18 and 70 years. During 2,033,239 person-years of follow-up, age and sex-adjusted HR event rates comparing T1DM, versus T2DM as reference, showed that MI and HF relative risks were increased above 60 years (1.2 and 1.4 -fold). HR of ischemic stroke did not markedly differ between T1DM and T2DM. Risk of incident CKD was 2.4-fold higher in T1DM above 60 years. All-cause death HR risk was 1.1-fold higher in T1DM after 60 years and the CV death risk was 1.15-fold higher in T1DM between 60 and 69 years compared to T2DM. ConclusionsAlthough the crude prevalent burden of CV diseases may be lower in T1DM than in T2DM, patients with T1DM may have a higher risk of incident MI, HF, all-cause death and CV death above 60 years of age, highlighting the need for improved prevention in this population.

Abstract 11473: An EHR-Based Machine Learning Model Predicts Myocardial Infarction Better Than an ECG-Based Machine Learning Model and the Pooled Cohort Equations

Introduction: Patients at high risk for myocardial infarction (MI) benefit from treatments designed for primary prevention, especially cholesterol lowering therapy. The pooled cohort equations (PCE) are the most commonly used risk predictor for future MI but show only modest performance. Hypothesis: Electronic health record (EHR)-based, and ECG-based machine learning models are better at predicting MI as compared toPCE. Methods: We retrospectively included all patients (age 40-79) with clinical encounters in Geisinger, having at least 1 clinically acquired ECG and no prior history of MI. Incident MI within 10 years of an index ECG was identified. The ability of 2 machine learning models to predict MI were compared to the PCE: 1) an XGBoost model with EHR data (age, sex, race, smoking history, vitals, 24 lab tests) as input features; and 2) a deep neural network (DNN) that used ECG traces, age, and sex as inputs. Models were compared based on area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results: A total of 103,933 ECGs from 34,932 patients had sufficient follow-up, 21% of ECGs were followed by an MI event within 10 years. The EHR-based XGBoost model had the best performance (AUROC 81%) in comparison with both the ECG-based DNN model (AUROC 68%) and the PCE (AUROC 72%). 9% of the total encounters were predicted to be ‘high risk’ by the EHR-based model and not by the pooled cohort equations. In that subgroup, 60% of patients were not on a statin and the 10-year MI event rate was 26%. 20% of encounters were predicted to be ‘high risk’ by the PCE and not by the EHR-based model. The event rate in that subgroup was 12%. Conclusions: An EHR-based XGBoost model, but not an ECG-based DNN, is superior to the PCE in predicting future MI. Patients identified as high risk by the EHR-based model but missed by the PCE, have a high rate of future MI. Statin use in that group is low, suggesting ample opportunity for intervention.

Coronary Calcium Scoring Improves Risk Prediction in Patients With Suspected Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease

BackgroundIn patients with suspected obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), the risk factor–weighted clinical likelihood (RF-CL) model and the coronary artery calcium score–weighted clinical likelihood (CACS-CL) model improves the identification of obstructive CAD compared with basic pretest probability (PTP) models. ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the new models. MethodsThe incidences of myocardial infarction and death were stratified according to categories by the RF-CL and CACS-CL and compared with categories by the PTP model. We used cohorts from a Danish register (n = 41,177) and a North American randomized study (n = 3,952). All patients were symptomatic and were referred for diagnostic testing because of clinical indications. ResultsDespite substantial down-reclassification of patients to a likelihood ≤5% of CAD with either the RF-CL (45%) or CACS-CL (60%) models compared with the PTP (18%), the annualized event rates of myocardial infarction and death were low using all 3 models; RF-CL 0.51% (95% CI: 0.46-0.56), CACS-CL 0.48% (95% CI: 0.44-0.56), and PTP 0.37% (95% CI: 0.31-0.44), respectively. Overall, comparison of the predictive power of the 3 models using Harrell’s C-statistics demonstrated superiority of the RF-CL (0.64 [95% CI: 0.63-0.65]) and CACS-CL (0.69 [95% CI: 0.67-0.70]) compared with the PTP model (0.61 [95% CI: 0.60-0.62]). ConclusionsThe simple clinical likelihood models that include classical risk factors or risk factors combined with CACS provide improved risk stratification for myocardial infarction and death compared with the standard PTP model. Hence, the optimized RF-CL and CACS-CL models identify 2.5 and 3.3 times more patients, respectively, who may not benefit from further diagnostic testing.

Contributions of event rates, pre-hospital deaths, and deaths following hospitalisation to variations in myocardial infarction mortality in 326 districts in England: a spatial analysis of linked hospitalisation and mortality data

Myocardial infarction mortality varies substantially within high-income countries. There is limited guidance on what interventions-including primary and secondary prevention, or improvement of care pathways and quality-can reduce myocardial infarction mortality. Our aim was to understand the contributions of incidence (event rate), pre-hospital deaths, and hospital case fatality to the variations in myocardial infarction mortality within England. We used linked data from national databases on hospitalisations and deaths with acute myocardial infarction (ICD-10 codes I21 and I22) as a primary hospital diagnosis or underlying cause of death, from Jan 1, 2015, to Dec 31, 2018. We used geographical identifiers to estimate myocardial infarction event rate (number of events per 100 000 population), death rate (number of deaths per 100 000 population), total case fatality (proportion of events that resulted in death), pre-hospital fatality (proportion of events that resulted in pre-hospital death), and hospital case fatality (proportion of admissions due to myocardial infarction that resulted in death within 28 days of admission) for men and women aged 45 years and older across 326 districts in England. Data were analysed in a Bayesian spatial model that accounted for similarities and differences in spatial patterns of fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction. Age-standardised rates were calculated by weighting age-specific rates by the corresponding national share of the appropriate denominator for each measure. From 2015 to 2018, national age-standardised death rates were 63 per 100 000 population in women and 126 per 100 000 in men, and event rates were 233 per 100 000 in women and 512 per 100 000 in men. After age-standardisation, 15·0% of events in women and 16·9% in men resulted in death before hospitalisation, and hospital case fatality was 10·8% in women and 10·6% in men. Across districts, the 99th-to-1st percentile ratio of age-standardised myocardial infarction death rates was 2·63 (95% credible interval 2·45-2·83) in women and 2·56 (2·37-2·76) in men, with death rates highest in parts of northern England. The main contributor to this variation was myocardial infarction event rate, with a 99th-to-1st percentile ratio of 2·55 (2·39-2·72) in women and 2·17 (2·08-2·27) in men across districts. Pre-hospital fatality was greater than hospital case fatality in every district. Pre-hospital fatality had a 99th-to-1st percentile ratio of 1·60 (1·50-1·70) in women and 1·75 (1·66-1·86) in men across districts, and made a greater contribution to variation in total case fatality than did hospital case fatality (99th-to-1st percentile ratio 1·39 [1·29-1·49] and 1·49 [1·39-1·60]). The contribution of case fatality to variation in deaths across districts was largest in women aged 55-64 and 65-74 years and in men aged 55-64, 65-74, and 75-84 years. Pre-hospital fatality was slightly higher in men than in women in most districts and age groups, whereas hospital case fatality was higher in women in virtually all districts at ages up to and including 65-74 years. Most of the variation in myocardial infarction mortality in England is due to variation in myocardial infarction event rate, with a smaller role for case fatality. Most variation in case fatality occurs before rather than after hospital admission. Reducing subnational variations in myocardial infarction mortality requires interventions that reduce event rate and pre-hospital deaths. Wellcome Trust, British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council (UK Research and Innovation), and National Institute for Health Research (UK).

Relative contribution of trends in myocardial infarction event rates and case fatality to declines in mortality: an international comparative study of 1·95 million events in 80·4 million people in four countries

Myocardial infarction mortality has declined since the 1970s, but contemporary drivers of this trend remain unexplained. The aim of this study was to compare the contribution of trends in event rates and case fatality to declines in myocardial infarction mortality in four high-income jurisdictions from 2002-15. Linked hospitalisation and mortality data were obtained from New South Wales (NSW), Australia; Ontario, Canada; New Zealand; and England, UK. People aged between 30 years and 105 years were included in the study. Age-adjusted trends in myocardial infarction event rates and case fatality were estimated from Poisson and binomial regression models, and their relative contribution to trends in myocardial infarction mortality calculated. 1 947 895 myocardial infarction events from a population of 80·4 million people were identified in people aged 30 years or older. There were significant declines in myocardial infarction mortality, event rates, and case fatality in all jurisdictions. Age-standardised myocardial infarction event rates were highest in New Zealand (men 893/100 000 person-years in 2002, 536/100 000 person-years in 2015; women 482/100 000 person-years in 2002, 271/100 000 person-years in 2015) and lowest in England (men 513/100 000 person-years in 2002, 382/100 000 person-years in 2015; women 238/100 000 person-years in 2002, 173/100 000 person-years in 2015). Annual age-adjusted reductions in event rates ranged from -2·6% (95% CI -3·0 to -2·3) in men in England to -4·3% (-4·4 to -4·1) in women in Ontario. Age-standardised case fatality was highest in England in 2002 (48%), but declined at a greater rate than in the other jurisdictions (men -4·1%/year, 95% CI -4·2 to -4·0%; women -4·4%/year, -4·5 to -4·3%). Declines in myocardial infarction mortality rates ranged from -6·1%/year to -7·6%/year. Event rate declines were the greater contributor to myocardial infarction mortality reductions in Ontario (69·4% for men and women), New Zealand (men 68·4%; women 67·5%), and NSW women (60·1%), whereas reductions in case fatality were the greater contributor in England (60% in men and women) and for NSW men (54%). There were greater contributions from case fatality than event rate reductions in people younger than 55 years in all jurisdictions, with contributions to mortality declines varying by country in those aged 55-74 years. Event rate declines had a greater impact than changes in case fatality in those aged 75 years and older. While the mortality burden of myocardial infarction has continued to fall across these four populations, the relative contribution of trends in myocardial infarction event rates and case fatality to declining mortality varied between jurisdictions, including by age and sex. Understanding the causes of this variation will enable optimisation of prevention and treatment efforts. National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia; Australian Research Council; Health Research Council of New Zealand; Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Canada; National Institute for Health Research, UK.

Prevalences and incidences of cardiovascular and renal diseases in type 1 compared with type 2 diabetes: a nationwide observational study

Abstract Background Type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) increase risks of cardiovascular (CV) and renal disease compared with diabetes-free populations. There are only few studies comparing T1D and T2D for the risk of these clinical events. We examined these issues in a nationwide analysis in France. Methods All patients aged ≥18 seen in French hospitals in 2013 with at least 5 years of follow-up were identified and categorized by their diabetes status. A total of 50,623 patients with T1D (age 61.4±18.6, 53% male) and 425,207 patients with T2D (age 68.6±14.3, 55% male) were followed over a mean period of 4.3±2.1 years (median 5.3, interquartile 2.8–5.8 years). Prevalence and event rates of myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), ischemic stroke, chronic kidney disease (CKD), all-cause death and CV death were assessed with age stratification of 10-year intervals. Cox regression analyses were used to estimate risk with adjustment on sex and age. Results The age and sex-adjusted prevalence of CV diseases was higher in T2D for ages above 40 years whereas the adjusted prevalence of CKD was more common in T1D between ages 18 and 69 years and higher in T2D for ages above 80 years. During 2,033,239 person-years of follow-up, there were 27,497 patients with MIs (yearly rate 1.4%), 24,892 with ischemic strokes (yearly rate 1.2%), 100,769 with incident HF (yearly rate 5.4%), 65,928 with incident CKD (yearly rate 3.4%) and 197,858 deaths (yearly rate 9.7%) including 49,026 CV deaths (yearly rate 2.4%) were recorded. Age and sex-adjusted event rates comparing T1D versus T2D showed that MI risk was increased for ages above 60 (1.2-fold for T1D versus T2D) and HF between ages 18–29 and above 60 years (1.1–1.4-fold). Adjusted risk of ischemic stroke did not markedly differ between T1D and T2D. Risk of incident CKD was 1.1–2.4-fold higher in T1D between ages 18–49 and above 60 years. The all-cause death risk was 1.1-fold higher in T1D at age ≥60 years, the cardiovascular death risk being 1.1-fold higher in T1D between 60 and 69 years. Conclusions The adjusted prevalent burden and risk of incident renal disease are greater among patients with T1D compared with T2D patients across most ages. Although the prevalent burden of cardiovascular diseases may be lower in T1D than in T2D, patients with T1D may have a higher risk of incident MI, HF, all-cause death and cardiovascular death at middle-older ages, highlighting their need for improved prevention. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Long-term prognosis analysis of PARACHUTE device implantation in patients with ischemic heart failure: a single-center experience of Chinese patients

BackgroundHeart failure (HF) is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity. The PARACHUTE device is designed to partition for left ventricular (LV) apical aneurysm post extensive anterior myocardial infarction (MI). However, the long-term prognosis of the PARACHUTE device post-implantation is unclear.MethodsFrom November 2015 to April 2017, six subjects with New York Heart Association Classes II, III and IV ischemic HF, LV ejection fraction between (LVEF) 15 and 40%; and LV anterior apical aneurysm were enrolled in our center. The cumulative event rates for MI, hospitalization, and mortality were documented. Further assessment of LVEF, LV end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD), and estimated pulmonary artery pressure were determined by echocardiography core laboratory. For quantitative data comparison, paired t-test was employed.ResultsDevice implantation was successful in all six enrolled subjects, and acute device association adverse events were not observed. At 4.6 ± 1.7 years follow-up, major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) were found in 50% patients, and the survival rate was 86.7%. We observed that the LVEF was significantly elevated after deployment (46.00 ± 6.00% vs. 35.83 ± 1.47%, P = 0.009). Besides, the LVEDD elevated after MI (51.17 ± 3.71 vs. 62.83 ± 3.25, P < 0.001) was revealed, but the device sustained preserved LVEDD after implantation.ConclusionThe PARACHUTE device is an alternative therapy for patients with severe LV maladaptive remodeling. However, the device seems to increase the HF ratio.Trial registrationNCT02240940

Cardiovascular and Renal Disease Burden in Type 1 Compared With Type 2 Diabetes: A Two-Country Nationwide Observational Study.

OBJECTIVEType 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) increase risks of cardiovascular (CV) and renal disease (CVRD) compared with diabetes-free populations. Direct comparisons between T1D and T2D are scarce. We examined this by pooling full-population cohorts in Sweden and Norway.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSA total of 59,331 patients with T1D and 484,241 patients with T2D, aged 18–84 years, were followed over a mean period of 2.6 years from 31 December 2013. Patients were identified in nationwide prescribed drug and hospital registries in Norway and Sweden. Prevalence and event rates of myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), stroke, chronic kidney disease (CKD), all-cause death, and CV death were assessed following age stratification in 5-year intervals. Cox regression analyses were used to estimate risk.RESULTSThe prevalence of CV disease was similar in T1D and T2D across age strata, whereas CKD was more common in T1D. Age-adjusted event rates comparing T1D versus T2D showed that HF risk was increased between ages 65 and 79 years, MI between 55 and 79 years, and stroke between 40 and 54 years (1.3–1.4-fold, 1.3–1.8-fold, and 1.4–1.7-fold, respectively). CKD risk was 1.4–3.0-fold higher in T1D at all ages. The all-cause death risk was 1.2–1.5-fold higher in T1D at age >50 years, with a similar trend for CV death.CONCLUSIONSAdult patients with T1D compared with those with T2D had an overall greater risk of cardiorenal disease (HF and CKD) across ages, MI and all-cause death at middle-older ages, and stroke at younger ages. The total age-adjusted CVRD burden and risks were greater among patients with T1D compared with those with T2D, highlighting their need for improved prevention strategies.

Relative Contribution of Trends in Myocardial Infarction Event Rates and Case Fatality to Declines in Mortality: An International Comparative Study of 1.95 Million Events in 80.4 Million People in Four Countries

Background: Myocardial infarction (MI) mortality has declined since the 1970s, but contemporary drivers of this trend remain unexplained. The aim was to compare the contribution of trends in event rates and case fatality to declines in MI mortality in four high-income jurisdictions from 2002-2015. Methods: Linked hospitalisation and mortality data were obtained from New South Wales (NSW), Ontario, New Zealand and England. Age-adjusted trends in MI event rates and case fatality were estimated from Poisson and binomial regression models, and their relative contribution to trends in MI mortality calculated. Findings: A total of 1,947,895 MI events were identified in ≥30 year olds. There were significant declines in MI mortality, event rates and case fatality in all jurisdictions. Age-standardised MI event rates were highest in New Zealand (men: 893/100,000 in 2002, 536/100,000 in 2015; women: 482/100,000 in 2002, 271/100,000 in 2015) and lowest in England (men: 513/100,000 in 2002, 382/100,000 in 2015; women: 238/100,000 in 2002, 173/100,000 in 2015). Annual age-adjusted reductions in event rates ranged from -2·6% (95% CI -2·7, -2·6) in men in England to -4·3% (95% CI -4·4, -4·1) in women in Ontario. Age-standardised case fatality was highest in England in 2002 (48%) but declined at a greater rate than in the other jurisdictions (men: -4·1%/year, (95% CI: -4·2, -4·0%); women: -4·4%/year, (95% CI: -4·5, -4·3%)). Declines in MI mortality rates ranged from -6.1%/year to -7.6%/year. Event rate declines were the greater contributor to MI mortality reductions in Ontario (69·4%), New Zealand (men 68·4%; women 67·5%) and NSW women (60·1%), while reductions in case fatality were the greater contributor in England (60% in men and women). There were greater contributions from case fatality reductions in younger age groups and event rate declines in older age groups. Interpretation: The contribution of trends in MI event rates and case fatality varied between jurisdictions, including by age and sex. Understanding the causes of this variation will enable optimisation of prevention and treatment efforts. Funding Information: NHMRC (Australia); Health Research Council New Zealand; Canadian Institutes for Health Research; National Institute for Health Research, Oxford. Declaration of Interests: None to declare. Ethics Approval Statement: This study was approved by the University of Toronto Health Sciences Research Ethics Board, NSW Population & Health Services Research Ethics Committee (reference 2016/09/654), the New Zealand Health and Disability Ethics Committees (reference number H13/049) and the Central and South Bristol Multi-Centre Research Ethics Committee (04/Q2006/176).

Elevated LDL cholesterol and increased risk of myocardial infarction and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 70–100 years: a contemporary primary prevention cohort

Findings of historical studies suggest that elevated LDL cholesterol is not associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in patients older than 70 years. We aimed to test this hypothesis in a contemporary population of individuals aged 70-100 years. We included in our analysis individuals (aged 20-100 years) from the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS) who did not have atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline and who were not taking statins. Standard hospital assays were used to measure LDL cholesterol. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and absolute event rates for myocardial infarction and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and we estimated the number needed to treat (NNT) in 5 years to prevent one event. Between Nov 25, 2003, and Feb 17, 2015, 91 131 individuals were enrolled in CGPS. During mean 7·7 (SD 3·2) years of follow-up (to Dec 7, 2018), 1515 individuals had a first myocardial infarction and 3389 had atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Risk of myocardial infarction per 1·0 mmol/L increase in LDL cholesterol was augmented for the overall population (HR 1·34, 95% CI 1·27-1·41) and was amplified for all age groups, particularly those aged 70-100 years. Risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was also raised per 1·0 mmol/L increase in LDL cholesterol overall (HR 1·16, 95% CI 1·12-1·21) and in all age groups, particularly those aged 70-100 years. Risk of myocardial infarction was also increased with a 5·0 mmol/L or higher LDL cholesterol (ie, possible familial hypercholesterolaemia) versus less than 3·0 mmol/L in individuals aged 80-100 years (HR 2·99, 95% CI 1·71-5·23) and in those aged 70-79 years (1·82, 1·20-2·77). Myocardial infarction and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events per 1000 person-years for every 1·0 mmol/L increase in LDL cholesterol were highest in individuals aged 70-100 years, with number of events lower with younger age. The NNT in 5 years to prevent one myocardial infarction or atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event if all people were given a moderate-intensity statin was lowest for individuals aged 70-100 years, with the NNT increasing with younger age. In a contemporary primary prevention cohort, people aged 70-100 years with elevated LDL cholesterol had the highest absolute risk of myocardial infarction and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and the lowest estimated NNT in 5 years to prevent one event. Our data are important for preventive strategies aimed at reducing the burden of myocardial infarction and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the growing population aged 70-100 years. None.

P5331Aspirin use for prevention of cardiovascular events in patients with high lipoprotein(a): a population-based study

Abstract Background High lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] levels have been shown to increase Myocardial Infarction (MI) and all-cause mortality. However, studies evaluating the optimal preventive measures for that subset of cardiac patients are scarce. This study aims to study the outcomes of aspirin use versus no aspirin for the prevention of all-cause mortality and myocardial infarction in patients with high Lp(a) levels. Purpose We sought to determine the effect of Aspirin in reducing the rate of MI and all-cause mortality among patients with high lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a) ≥50mg/dL] Methods Patients who attended the preventive cardiology clinic from 2005 to 2016 and included in the Preventive Cardiology Database were included in the current single-center, retrospective, observational cohort study that was conducted according to the guidelines of the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology Statement) checklist. The primary outcome was the incidence of myocardial infarction and the secondary outcome was all-cause mortality. Patients were excluded in cases of I) Lp(a)a &lt;50mg/dL, II) history of malignancy, or III) being on anticoagulation/ dual antiplatelet therapy. The median duration of follow-up was 92 months from time of Lp(a) measurement to the last follow-up. Continuous variables were expressed as means ± standard deviation or median (IQR), and categorical variables were expressed as percentages (%). All statistical tests were two-sided. A propensity score-matched analysis was performed with 1:1 nearest match for Age, Gender, Race, Smoking status, BMI, Diabetes, Peripheral artery disease, Carotid artery disease, coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, Heart failure, Hypertension, Dyslipidemia, Stroke, family history of coronary artery disease, Lp (a), LDL, HDL, Triglycerides, glucose and total cholesterol. Results 1,805 patients fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria out of 7,410 patients initially identified with recorded Lp(a) levels in the Preventive Cardiology Database. Of these, 376 patients were taking aspirin, and 1429 patients were not receiving aspirin. After propensity score matching for different baseline characteristics and comorbidities as mentioned above, 316 patients were matched in each group. Patients who were on Aspirin had a significantly lower rate of MI events compared to patients who were not on aspirin (6.96% vs 12.02%, P=0.03) and a lower rate, however statistically non-significant, of all-cause mortality (2.84% vs 4.11%, P=0.385). Conclusion The use of aspirin in patients with elevated Lp(a) levels significantly lowers the rate of myocardial infarction events. Larger randomized clinical trials are warranted to evaluate the use of aspirin for primary and secondary prevention of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with high Lp(a) levels.

P2241Patients examined with coronary computed tomography angiography have comparable five-year outcomes to age- and sex-matched population controls

Abstract Background According to Danish national guidelines, coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) is the preferred frontline test in patients without known coronary artery disease (CAD) and stable symptoms indicative of CAD. Over the last decade in Denmark, we have seen a steadily and considerable increase in CCTA use. Data on long-term cardiovascular risk following CCTA remains limited, in particular in comparison to background population controls. Purpose To study individual and composite five-year outcomes of mortality, myocardial infarction (MI) and revascularization in CCTA-examined patients compared to background population controls. Methods Nationwide registry-based study including 58,176 patients with an incident CCTA examination during 2007–2014 in Denmark versus 116,352 age- and sex-matched population controls. Despite no detailed information on CCTA results were available, a landmark analysis including patients and corresponding controls alive six months post-CCTA enabled us to study five patient categories: 1) 19,135 patients with no relevant medical therapy (nitrates, cholesterol-lowering, antiplatelet and/or anticoagulant drugs) before or 180 days post-CCTA; 2) 6,073 patients on relevant medical therapy prior to but not 180 days post-CCTA; 3) 5,086 patients who initiated relevant medical therapy during 180 days post-CCTA; 4) 19,809 patients on relevant medical therapy both before and during 180 days post-CCTA; and 5) 8,073 patients with myocardial infarction (MI) or treated with percutaneous intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) within 180 days post-CCTA. Within each CCTA patient group, two controls matched on age and sex were identified for each CCTA patient. Neither CCTA-patients nor controls had prior ischemic heart disease. Results Outcomes of MI for CCTA patient groups 1)-5) versus controls were: 0.3%, 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.7%, and 11.4% versus 0.7%, 1.1%, 1.0%, 1.1%, and 1.5%. Corresponding figures for all-cause mortality were: 2.2%, 2.0%, 4.1%, 4.9%, and 6.8%, versus 2.1%, 2.8%, 4.2%, 4.3%, and 6.4%. For composite endpoint of MI, PCI or CABG, results for CCTA patients versus controls were: 0.3%, 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.7%, and 18.2% versus 0.9%, 1.3%, 1.2%, 1.4%, and 1.9%. Lastly, for composite endpoint of MI, PCI, CABG or death, results for CCTA patients versus controls were: 2.5%, 2.6%, 4.8%, 4.9%, and 24.2% versus 3.0%, 3.9%, 5.3%, 6.1%, and 8.0%. Conclusions Only the CCTA group treated with PCI or CABG or diagnosed with MI during the first 180 days post-CCTA had substantially higher five-year MI event rates and composite endpoints of MI, PCI or CABG and MI, PCI, CABG or death. In addition, no difference in five-year all-cause mortality was seen for all CCTA patient groups when compared to their respective controls. Altogether, the majority of CCTA-examined patients were event-free at five-year follow-up suggesting a potential overutilization of CCTA and a need for refinement of CCTA referral criteria.

1213-P: Assessing the Performance of Cardiovascular Risk Equations in the DECLARE-TIMI 58 Population

Sodium-glucose co-transporter inhibitors have demonstrated reduced incidence of cardiovascular (CV) events, which cannot be fully explained by effects on HbA1c, body weight or blood pressure. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) economic models link treatment-related changes in risk factor levels to long-term incidence of CV events via risk equations (RE). This study assessed the performance of commonly used CV RE in T2DM to the CV outcomes trial DECLARE-TIMI 58. Ten sets of RE were coded in MS-Excel (ADVANCE, ARIC, BRAVO, Framingham, Fremantle, New Zealand CVD, QRisk3, Swedish NDR, UKPDS 68 and 82) to predict annual probabilities of CV events and applied to baseline characteristics and 1-year treatment effects (HbA1c, weight and blood pressure) for dapagliflozin (DAPA) versus placebo (PLA) from DECLARE-TIMI 58. Predicted event rates for myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF) and stroke and the relative risks (RR) associated with DAPA versus PLA were estimated and compared to the closest reported trial outcome. Of the ten sets of RE, seven predicted composite CV outcomes, demanding assumptions to predict risk of individual events; only UKPDS and BRAVO predicted all three events. When comparing trial observations against predictions averaged across RE, correlation was greater for absolute event rates (R2: 0.92) than RRs (R2: 0.42). ARIC, Fremantle and New Zealand RE considerably overpredicted risk of MI and stroke compared to the trial. RE typically underpredicted the effect of DAPA on HF (average predicted RR: 0.89 versus reported hazard ratio 0.73, CI: 0.61 to 0.88) and MI (average predicted RR: 0.93 versus reported hazard ratio 0.89, CI: 0.77 to 1.01). Existing methods of CV risk prediction evaluated in this study did not accurately predict the treatment benefits observed in DECLARE-TIMI 58. The development of DECLARE-TIMI 58-specific risk equations may be required to robustly evaluate the long-term clinical and economic impact of DAPA in T2DM. Disclosure P. McEwan: Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca. Employee; Self; Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd. V. Foos: Employee; Self; Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., IQVIA. H. Bennett: Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca. Employee; Self; Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd. B. Kartman: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. Stock/Shareholder; Self; AstraZeneca. C. Edmonds: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. I.A. Gause-Nilsson: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. Funding AstraZeneca

Risk stratification by assessment of coronary artery disease using coronary computed tomography angiography in diabetes and non-diabetes patients: a study from the Western Denmark Cardiac Computed Tomography Registry.

We examined whether severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) measured by coronary computed tomography angiography can be used to predict rates of myocardial infarction (MI) and death in patients with and without diabetes. A cohort study of consecutive patients (n = 48731) registered in the Western Denmark Cardiac Computed Tomography Registry from 2008 to 2016. Patients were stratified by diabetes status and CAD severity (no, non-obstructive, or obstructive). Endpoints were MI and death. Event rates per 1000 person-years, unadjusted and adjusted incidence rate ratios were computed. Median follow-up was 3.6 years. Among non-diabetes patients, MI event rates per 1000 person-years were 1.4 for no CAD, 4.1 for non-obstructive CAD, and 9.1 for obstructive CAD. Among diabetes patients, the corresponding rates were 2.1 for no CAD, 4.8 for non-obstructive CAD, and 12.6 for obstructive CAD. Non-diabetes and diabetes patients without CAD had similar low rates of MI [adjusted incidence rate ratio 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71-2.78]. Among diabetes patients, the adjusted risk of MI increased with severity of CAD (no CAD: reference; non-obstructive CAD: adjusted incidence rate ratio 1.71, 95% CI: 0.79-3.68; obstructive CAD: adjusted incidence rate ratio 4.42, 95% CI: 2.14-9.17). Diabetes patients had higher death rates than non-diabetes patients, irrespective of CAD severity. In patients without CAD, diabetes patients have a low risk of MI similar to non-diabetes patients. Further, MI rates increase with CAD severity in both diabetes and non-diabetes patients; with diabetes patients with obstructive CAD having the highest risk of MI.

Abstract 16888: Comparing Adverse Clinical Outcomes Between Drug Eluting Stents and Bare Metal Stents in Patients Undergoing Non-Cardiac Surgery: a Meta-Analysis

Introduction: History of coronary stents is risk factor for short term adverse clinical events (ACE) after a non-cardiac surgery (NCS). Safety of Drug-Eluting Stent (DES) or Bare-Metal Stent (BMS) has been studied in such patients, but no clear optimal choice of stent type exists. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis to compare the two stents in patients undergoing NCS. Methods: PubMed, Medline, EMBASE databases were queried from inception to January 2018 for all studies comparing DES vs BMS in patients undergoing NCS. ACE was defined as 30-day event rate of myocardial infarction (MI) or death after NCS. Two subgroups created by difference in time from stent placement to NCS: Within 30-45 days and &gt;45 days after stent placement. Random effect model was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR). Two tailed p value &lt; 0.05 were considered significant. Results: Four retrospective cohort studies with 6708 patients were identified. Out of 2597 BMS patients, 8.9% had an ACE compared to rate of 6.5% ACE in DES patients (n=4111). In the overall cohort, there was no difference was observed with either stent type irrespective of duration of NCS after stent placement (OR: 0.85, 95% CI 0.70-1.03, P=0.46). In patients undergoing NCS shortly(30-45days) after stent placement, no significant difference in ACE was observed {Odds Ratio (OR): 0.90, CI 0.63-1.28, P=0.82}. Similarly, no difference was noted in ACE in patients undergoing NCS after 45 days of stent placement (OR: 0.88, CI 0.56-1.40, P=0.10). Conclusion: In patients undergoing NCS after coronary stenting, there is no difference in rate of ACE with BMS vs DES placement. Thus, choice of stent may not play a role in prediction of adverse clinical outcomes after an non-cardiac surgery.

Durability of Stroke Prevention with Carotid Endarterectomy and Carotid Stenting

BackgroundCarotid artery stenting remains an effective alternative to carotid endarterectomy for stroke prevention; however, the long-term durability of carotid artery stenting remains poorly defined. We performed a 10-year “real-world” comparative analysis of carotid endarterectomy and carotid artery stenting to help evaluate the success of these procedures in preventing late ischemic stroke events. MethodsThis was a single-center retrospective review of 996 patients (symptomatic and asymptomatic) treated with carotid endarterectomy or carotid artery stenting from January 2001 through December 2011 at a tertiary academic medical center. All-cause death, stroke, and myocardial infarction event rates were analyzed using log-rank analysis. ResultsAmong the 996 patients treated with carotid endarterectomy (n = 787) or carotid artery stenting (n = 209), the 30-day, 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival rates for carotid endarterectomy patients were 99.1%, 95.3%, 77.9%, and 54.8%; carotid artery stenting rates were 99.5%, 96.2%, 67.8%, and 40.2%, respectively (P = .005, at 10 years). There was no significant difference in early stroke rates or myocardial infarction rates between the groups. Subgroup analysis comparing symptomatic status demonstrated no statistically significant differences in overall survival, stroke, or myocardial infarction rates at 10 years. In addition to reduced long-term overall survival, carotid artery stenting patients had a higher long-term restenosis rate as compared to carotid endarterectomy (6.3% vs 2.8%, P < .0001) and reduced restenosis-free survival (P = .01). ConclusionsEarly death, stroke, and myocardial infarction rates are comparable after carotid endarterectomy and carotid artery stenting. Carotid artery stenting is an effective means of preventing stroke among patients with carotid artery stenosis. Symptomatic status does not seem to affect rates of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death. Carotid endarterectomy continues to be the preferred long-term solution for extracranial carotid artery occlusive disease as it is associated with better long-term survival and lower restenosis rates.

Long-term safety and tolerability of nintedanib in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: results from the open-label extension study, INPULSIS-ON

The efficacy and safety of nintedanib, an intracellular tyrosine kinase inhibitor, in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis were assessed in two phase 3, placebo-controlled INPULSIS trials. Patients who completed the 52-week treatment period in an INPULSIS trial could receive open-label nintedanib in the extension trial, INPULSIS-ON. We aimed to assess the long-term efficacy and safety of nintedanib in INPULSIS-ON. Patients who completed the 52-week treatment period of INPULSIS, and the follow-up visit 4 weeks later, were eligible for INPULSIS-ON. The off-treatment period between INPULSIS and INPULSIS-ON could be 4-12 weeks. Patients receiving nintedanib 150 mg twice daily or placebo at the end of an INPULSIS trial received nintedanib 150 mg twice daily in INPULSIS-ON. Patients receiving nintedanib 100 mg twice daily or placebo at the end of an INPULSIS trial could receive nintedanib 100 mg twice daily or 150 mg twice daily in INPULSIS-ON. Spirometric tests were done at baseline, at weeks 2, 4, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, and then every 16 weeks. The primary outcome of INPULSIS-ON was to characterise the long-term safety and tolerability of nintedanib in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and this was analysed in patients who received at least one dose of nintedanib in INPULSIS-ON. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01619085, and with EudraCT, number 2011-002766-21. The first patient was enrolled into INPULSIS-ON in July 2, 2012. Of 807 patients who completed the INPULSIS trials, 734 (91%) were treated in INPULSIS-ON. 430 (59%) patients had received nintedanib in INPULSIS and continued nintedanib in INPULSIS-ON, and 304 (41%) had received placebo in INPULSIS and initiated nintedanib in INPULSIS-ON. Median exposure time for patients treated with nintedanib in both the INPULSIS and INPULSIS-ON trials was 44·7 months (range 11·9-68·3). The safety profile of nintedanib in INPULSIS-ON was consistent with that observed in INPULSIS. Diarrhoea was the most frequent adverse event in INPULSIS-ON (60·1 events per 100 patient exposure-years in patients who continued nintedanib, 71·2 events per 100 patient exposure-years in patients who initiated nintedanib). 20 (5%) of 430 patients who continued nintedanib and 31 (10%) of 304 patients who initiated nintedanib permanently discontinued nintedanib because of diarrhoea. The adverse event that most frequently led to permanent discontinuation of nintedanib was progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (51 [12%] patients continuing nintedanib and 43 [14%] patients initiating nintedanib). The event rate of bleeding was 8·4 events per 100 patient exposure-years in patients who continued nintedanib and 6·7 events per 100 patient exposure-years in patients who initiated nintedanib. The event rate of major adverse cardiovascular events was 3·6 events per 100 patient exposure-years in patients who continued nintedanib and 2·4 events per 100 patient exposure-years in patients who initiated nintedanib. The event rate of myocardial infarction using the broad scope (ie, all possible cases) was 1·3 events per 100 patient exposure-years in patients who continued nintedanib and 0·7 events per 100 patient exposure-years in patients who initiated nintedanib. These findings suggest that nintedanib has a manageable safety and tolerability profile over long-term use, with no new safety signals. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis could use nintedanib over the long-term to slow disease progression. Boehringer Ingelheim.