Municipal Water Demand Research Articles

Assessing human-source microbial contamination of stormwater in the U.S

Stormwater capture and use (SCU) projects have the potential to provide a significant portion of municipal water demand. However, uncertainty about the degree of microbial contamination in stormwater and the required treatment is a barrier for implementation of SCU projects. Stormwater runoff could become contaminated with human fecal matter in areas with deteriorating infrastructure where raw wastewater exfiltrates from sewer networks to stormwater collection networks, homeless encampments exist, or sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs) occur. Estimation of human fecal contamination can inform selection of stormwater treatment targets. This study investigates stormwater microbial contamination originating from human fecal matter using observed detections and concentrations of human microbial source tracking (MST) markers and potentially human-infectious pathogens (PHIPs). First, a systematic review complied measurements of human MST markers in wet and dry weather stormwater flows and influent wastewater. In addition, measurements of viral pathogens (e.g., adenoviruses, norovirus GI+GII, and enteroviruses) and protozoan pathogens (e.g., Giardia lamblia and Cryptosporidium parvum) in wet weather flows and influent wastewater were assessed. Human MST marker and PHIP data were statistically analyzed and applied to estimate a human fecal contamination analog (HFCA) which is an estimate of the amount of human fecal matter based on relative concentrations of microbial contaminants in stormwater compared to municipal wastewater. Human MST-based HFCAs in wet and dry weather flows ranged from <10−7.0 to 10−1.5 (median = 10−4.5) and 10−12 to 10−2.6 (median = 10−7.0), respectively. PHIP-based HFCAs in wet weather flows ranged from ∼10−8 to 10−0.14. Estimates of human MST-based HFCAs are more reliable than PHIP-based HFCAs because the current PHIP datasets are generally limited by the number of data points, percent detection, variability observed within the statistical distributions, and the geographical span of sampling locations. The use of human MST-based HFCAs is recommended to guide the selection of stormwater treatment process trains that are protective of public health based on the intended end use. Application of HFCA 10−1 (i.e., sewage dilution 10−1) remains a reasonable conservative estimate of human fecal contamination in stormwater to inform selection of pathogen log reduction targets based on the data presently available.

How tourists ‘escaping the heat’ may drive future increases in municipal water demand in Oregon coastal communities

Little is known about the effect of future weather and climate on municipal water demand in coastal communities with tourist-centric economies. To address this knowledge gap, we used an econometric model of monthly water demand that allowed for non-linear responses to weather variables to estimate temperature-response functions for demand from a sample of communities in the Oregon Mid-Coast. A main result is that local temperature was not a significant driver of variability in monthly water demand but that temperature in the Willamette Valley—the source of most tourists to the Oregon coast—was. We assumed that the increase in demand in response to higher Willamette Valley temperature arose from an increase in tourists escaping the heat in the Willamette Valley for cooler conditions on the coast. Applying the temperature response functions to scenarios of future climate to the year 2070 led to projected increases in water demand independent of other factors. Whether future tourism is either constrained by the local resident population that serves tourism or is constrained by the potential tourist population in the Willamette Valley, the climate-change contribution to projected water demand is generally of comparable magnitude to—if not greater than—the contribution from resident population change alone over the next 50 years. For communities where the population is projected to decline, the climate effect may more than offset the effect of declining population, resulting in a net positive change in demand.

Assessing the impact of socio-demographic factors on municipal water security in planned and unplanned urban centers of Pakistan

ABSTRACT In the current era of climate change, along with population and urbanization growth, Pakistan is facing increasing environmental challenges. These challenges intensified the pressure on the existing municipal water supply (MWS), which necessitated a need for a comprehensive assessment of the municipal water dynamics in these three cities. This research aimed sixfold: assessing the current municipal water services, municipal water demand, groundwater table depletion, satisfaction, awareness level, and the monetary indicators of the MWS. A three-stage key performance indicator (KPI) -based questionnaire survey was conducted, both online and through a field survey, self-administered between March 2022 and December 2023 in Islamabad (planned), Rawalpindi, and Mardan (unplanned). Public water supply (PWS) coverage remained 63% in Islamabad and 52% in Rawalpindi, while Mardan heavily relied on (44%) bore wells. Similarly, water scarcity remained alarmingly high in Islamabad (82%) and Rawalpindi (72%), compared to (relatively) low in Mardan (16%) between June and August every year. Over the past three decades, groundwater depths (GWD) in Rawalpindi have increased up to 300 ft, in Islamabad by 200 ft, and in Mardan by 50 ft. The study calls for intensified roles of all stakeholders, including the community, municipalities, policymakers, and urban planners, to ensure sustained municipal water supply.

Historic channel dynamics of a highly developed dryland river

AbstractUnderstanding how river systems adjust to hydrologic alterations is critical to sustainable river management. Remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) provide a reliable and cost‐effective approach to studying river adjustment, including the possible attainment of dynamic equilibrium. We used this approach to study the highly managed lower South Platte River in northeastern Colorado, USA. We assessed the active channel (inclusive of open water, sand bars and adjacent sparsely vegetated areas) in three 30 km study sections, using General Land Office (GLO) maps circa 1870, and a time series of eight sets of aerial photographs from 1941 to 2015. In the GLO surveys, the active channel was 72–80% larger and 65–85% wider than in the later aerial photographs. Mean daily discharge in the prior photo interval was the strongest hydrologic predictor of channel area, while mean June daily discharge was the strongest predictor of channel width. Maximum daily discharge was the only significant predictor of lateral movement of the main channel. The highest rates of channel movement occurred when the primary channel switched locations to occupy a pre‐existing secondary channel. An average of 17% of the total active channel area was persistent, defined as consisting of channels at ≥7 of the eight photo years, and there was a narrow, persistent active channel throughout 68–72% of the length of each section. Thus, the location of the river has been stable since 1941, though flanking the channel location were areas of the active channel that were more temporally dynamic. After 1956, the post‐development lower South Platte River channel planform achieved a state of dynamic equilibrium, fluctuating thereafter within a relatively narrow range of values. As conditions in the basin change in the future due to increased municipal and industrial water demand and climate change, we can expect the river to also change.

Drivers of municipal water security and vulnerability in Pakistan: A case study of Mardan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Tehsil Mardan has experienced enormous shifts in land use and cover (LULC), growth in population, climate variance, and a drop in the groundwater table. This study sought to evaluate and quantify the vulnerability status of municipal water security in Tehsil Mardan, by incorporating LULC, population, and climate indicators using remote sensing and statistical techniques. LULC changes were quantified from Landsat imageries using Envi from 1990 to 2021. Field and questionnaire surveys were conducted to estimate groundwater depletion and municipal water demand. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to temperature and precipitation data. Analysis of correlation was performed to measure the relationship among all the variables. To get a deeper understanding of the vulnerability of municipal water security caused by physical, climatic, and social factors, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was utilized. LULC results showed a fivefold rise in built-up class from 37 km2 to 188 km2 and a substantial decline in bare land from 437 km2 to 252 km2 from 1990 to 2021. The average groundwater table depletion was one foot per year and showed a significant positive correlation with the number of tube wells, water supply and demand, and population growth. An increase of 0.008 °C per year in average temperature while a declining trend is observed in mean precipitation during the last 30 years. The results showed that municipal water security vulnerability changed from “invulnerable relatively” to “very vulnerable” stage during the last three decades. The study contributed valuable insights to facilitate policymakers, and urban planners for management of the current and future municipal water works, land use planning, and associated environmental opportunities and threats.

A comparative study of different optimization algorithms for the optimum operation of the Mahabad dam reservoir

In this study, the performance of the Differential Evolution (DE) Algorithm, the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Teaching-Learning Based Optimization (TLBO) Algorithm are compared for the optimum operation of the Mahabad dam reservoir. The Reservoir supplies agricultural, environmental, municipal and industrial water demands of the area. The desktop reserve model is used for estimating the minimum environmental demand. Six alternative agricultural water management scenarios are proposed and a sensitivity analysis is performed on the agricultural demands under different scenarios. The results of the study indicate that both DE and GA algorithms performed nearly equally; however, the DE Algorithm reached its result more quickly with the reliability of 74.19 % compared to the results of the GA and TLBO. A 30 % decrease in agricultural demand in the fifth scenario with 87.56 % reliability provides the best results.

Data‐driven modeling to enhance municipal water demand estimates in response to dynamic climate conditions

AbstractAltered precipitation and temperature patterns from a changing climate will affect supply, demand, and overall municipal water system operations throughout the arid western U.S. While supply forecasts leverage hydrological models to connect climate influences with surface water availability, demand forecasts typically estimate water use independent of climate and other externalities. Stemming from an increased focus on seasonal water demand management, we use the Salt Lake City, Utah municipal water system as a test bed to assess model accuracy versus complexity trade‐offs between simple climate‐independent econometric‐based models and complex climate‐sensitive data‐driven models to average to extreme wet and dry climate conditions—representative of a new climate normal. The climate‐independent model displayed low performance during extreme dry conditions with predictions exceeding 90% and 40% of the observed monthly and seasonal volumetric demands, respectively, which we attribute to insufficient model complexity. The climate‐sensitive models displayed greater accuracy in all conditions, with an ordinary least squares model demonstrating a measurable reduction in prediction bias (3.4% vs. −27.3%) and RMSE (74.0 lpcd vs. 294 lpcd) compared to the climate‐independent model. The climate‐sensitive workflow increased model accuracy and characterized climate‐demand interactions, demonstrating a novel tool to enhance water system management.

Developing a sustainable water conservation strategy for Saudi Arabian cities

Water scarcity is a global issue posing significant challenges for sustainable water management. Saudi Arabia, due to its arid conditions, limited freshwater resources, and high evapotranspiration rates, faces water scarcity. Factors such as rapid population growth, urban expansion, industrial development, and unsustainable water management practices contribute to increased municipal water demand and per capita water consumption. This trend is evident in the Jubail Industrial City (JIC), the largest industrial city in the Middle East. Although JIC heavily relies on desalination and groundwater extraction to meet growing water needs, it lacks a strategic vision for water conservation. The objective of this paper is to identify the causes of water scarcity, assess the sustainability of current water management practices, and develop a sustainable water conservation strategy using JIC as a case study. The study adopts a mixed-method approach, involving a comprehensive review of literature and official documents, along with an analysis of successful case studies of water conservation practices in arid regions worldwide. The proposed strategy encompasses demand management, adoption of water-efficient technologies, water reuse and recycling, public awareness and education, and policy and governance frameworks. Strategic water conservation, optimization and reuse hold significant relevance to industry settings. The study’s findings can contribute to the enhancement of the municipal water supply sector and support decision-makers in achieving the sustainable water resource management goals outlined in Saudi Vision 2030.

Operational policy development for dynamic restoration of lakes in a changing climate; application of innovative hedging rules in a system dynamics platform

Growing agricultural and domestic demand exacerbates water shortages globally, creating substantial environmental challenges, especially in lakes and wetlands ecosystems. This paper presents a stationary policy to restore and sustain the water level in natural lakes using a new version of hedging rule that accounts for time-dependent environmental demand and the water allocation to the agricultural and municipal sectors under different climate change projections. The proposed framework is demonstrated via operational policy derived to rehabilitate Lake Urmia in Iran. To simplify the modeling process, all reservoirs in the basin are replaced with an equivalent reservoir (ER) to allocate the available water between potential users. The ER is then operated using the set of hedging rules derived for staged restoration and sustainability of the lake level while meeting other stakeholder objectives. A system dynamics-based model is used to simulate the multi-sectoral system of the basin while using a built-in optimization algorithm to develop the most desirable multi-period operational policy. The lake-level condition is investigated by producing lake-level duration curves, while the reservoir performance indices (reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability) are used for assessing water supply in the basin. The results indicate that the proposed framework is highly effective in restoring lake level while meeting agricultural and municipal water demand in the basin. The proposed model provides a stationary policy for the lake restoration accounting for the dynamic variation of the lake level and fluctuations of the reservoirs inflow due to climate variability and change.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment to pollution using GIS-based DRASTIC and GOD methods in Araihazar upazila of Narayanganj district, Bangladesh

A groundwater vulnerability map is a preliminary way to assess the risk of groundwater pollution from a variety of sources and across a range of geological and hydrological contexts. With rapid urbanization and industrialization, the possibility of groundwater contamination has greatly increased in Bangladesh. The focus of this study is on an industrialized peri-urban area in Bangladesh, where the regional aquifer has already been depressurized owing to pumping to fulfill the ascending municipal and industrial water demand of the Dhaka megacity and adjacent areas. Two vulnerability index maps were created utilizing a Geographic Information System (GIS) and the contamination risk indices DRASTIC (Depth to water table (D), Net recharge (R), Aquifer media (A), Soil media (S), Topography (T), Impact of vadose zone (I) and hydraulic Conductivity of the aquifer (C)) and GOD (Groundwater or hydraulic confinement in the aquifer under consideration (G), Overlying strata in terms of lithological characters that determine the pollutant attenuation capacity (O) and Depth to groundwater (D)). Vulnerabilities varied greatly over the study area. The DRASTIC analysis identified three vulnerability classes: one-fifth of the area exhibited high vulnerability, more than half of the study area showed moderate vulnerability and rest of the area is low in vulnerability. In contrast, GOD analysis was somewhat conservative, showed two classes where vulnerability was negligible in 58% of the study area and low in the rest of the area. The study also generated hot-spot maps of potential surface contamination for each vulnerability map by overlapping the potentially hazardous activity layer which corresponds to areas with higher industrial clusters. Human activities that commonly cause groundwater pollution need to be constrained by utilizing groundwater protection strategies in the identified vulnerable areas to ensure sustainable development.

Municipal Water Use Kuznets Curve

The relationship between per capita municipal water use (PCMWU) and per capita gross domestic product (PCGDP) (purchasing power parity, constant 2011 US$) is statistically analysed for each country in the world. The results indicate that PCMWU will increase with the rising PCGDP at the beginning, which will then decrease when PCGDP reaches a certain level. This trend follows the rules of the Water Use Kuznets Curve, an inverted U-shape curve that describes the relationship between water use and gross domestic product (GDP). The unbalanced panel data analysis of world 183 countries and 22 developed countries revealed that the PCGDP at the peak point of the Municipal Water Use Kuznets Curve (MWUKC) is approximately US$33,000. The specific reason for the MWUKC is the saturation of municipal water demand. At the same time, the driving forces include technological advancements, growth in water prices, effective environmental regulations and policies, and water-saving consciousness. Most of these mechanisms benefit from economic development. The experiences of developed countries provide guidance and positive indicators for developing countries or countries with increasing PCMWU. Due to the accelerated economic growth in developing countries, these countries could reach a turning point more rapidly.

Can Deep Sea Water be Processed into Potable Water and Distributed into the Middle East?

The study will conclude with a way to develop institutional structures implementing Solow’s conceptualization of intergeneralization that can collaborate peace and increase funds for quality water throughout the Middle East. The study is a humanitarian approach addressing the issue in the Middle East of many people going without natural resources of quality water. Identify what the commonalities between different sectors were and where synergies lay in terms of governance paths (Tiller etc al, 2021.p.1). Artificial Intelligence, Synthetic Intelligence and computational are investigated in to improve efficiency by implementing indicators for leaks, security and data and able to view in real-time. The study is a quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods approach that includes an e-mail chain, service partners, auditing, and project scope. Synergy and value are the variables. Artificial Intelligence that can be transcended containment (Capitol Technology, 2022p.1). Machine learning is exploding as an application of narrow AI (Artificial Intelligence), used to comb through vast amounts of data to better develop and market products (Capitol Technology, 2022. P.1). Cultural transparency will be investigated along with how the government manages reluctance and how they build strong relationships. A focus is on building a network of founder’s challenges facing our world today to demonstrate how interconnected we are and how the fates of all people are bound up together (President Biden,2021). The outbreak of a virus overseas can cause profound grief and suffer at home (President Biden, 2021). Energy data will be reported to show key metrics and will be compared to countries in the Middle East and measured in amounts of water consumption and renewable energy. Conflict a continent away can create endangers our security (President Biden,2021). Economic downturns abroad can mean lost jobs and shuttered businesses in towns across the globe (President Biden, 2021). Global climate change worsens hurricanes in the Gulf, floods in the heartland, and wildfires in the West (President Biden,2021). An engineering analysis of options is needed to decide which method is the most cost-effective and the potential locations. Initial potential locations are Oman, Qatar, Emirates, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Potable water is always supplied through some municipality or other government agency; we envision a public-private partnership for this phase. As a first step, the author is looking to collaborate with a partner to perform a feasibility analysis to determine which method will be the least costly to implement, have the secured payback in terms of selling the potable water, and have the largest long-term profitability and setting a standard. Intended Audience, Leading Corporations, Innovators, Investment Managers, Companies Raising Capitol, Wealth Advisors, Independent Scientists, Research Centers, Universities, Governments, Institutions, Water Dubai Industrial, Independent Sponsors, Islamic Financial Market, Governance Indictors, Businesses in the Arab World, Professors, Deans, Ministries, Authorities, Engineers, Foreign Holdings, The General Reserve, Monetary Agencies, Scholars, and Sovereign Wealth Fund Institutions. The study gives a historical comparison and uses the Ad Hoc theory implementing when necessary. The author is discussing how we can reduce evaporation as this increases the amount of water being produced. There is a more substantial cost with producing water from the air. There is also an abundance of panels that are required. Desalination is not new; it has been around since the ‘70s. The study shows that the Middle East will increase the water supply and have a cost available at .88 percent which comes from desalination plants which is much higher than what households and businesses pay for it (MENA, 2021.p.1). On current plans and projections, Bahrain will be able to increase desalination capacity to meet municipal water demand by 2030, but that will entail heavy financial, economic, and environmental burdens (Mena, 2021). The author searched the Persian Gulf, Talha, Khan, Aquil, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Isreal, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and the counts were 415 companies and 1,860 contacts (Dunn,2021p.1).

Is Desalination a Solution to Freshwater Scarcity in Developing Countries?

Rapid population growth and urbanization are two main drivers for the over-abstraction of conventional freshwater resources in various parts of the world, which leads to the situation of water scarcity (per capita availability <1000 m3/year). Predictions based on the World Bank projected population data and the FAO AQUASTAT database for freshwater availability show that by 2050, 2 billion people living in 44 countries will likely suffer from water scarcity, of which 95% may live in developing countries. Among these, the countries that will likely be most strongly hit by water scarcity by 2050 are Uganda, Burundi, Nigeria, Somalia, Malawi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Haiti, Tanzania, Niger, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Sudan, and Pakistan. Currently, these countries have not yet established desalination to meet their freshwater demand. However, the current global trend shows that membrane-based desalination technology is finding new outlets for supplying water to meet growing water demand in most of the water-scarce countries. These 14 water-scarce countries will demand an additional desalination capacity of 54 Mm3/day by 2050 in order to meet the standard of current municipal water demand and to compensate for the withdrawal of renewable resources. Case studies from India, China, and South Africa have highlighted that other countries may apply the strategy of using desalinated water for industrial users. Moreover, challenges to the widespread adoption of desalination exist such as expense, significant energy use, the need for specialized staff training, the large carbon footprint of facilities, environmental issues such as greenhouse gas emission (GHGs), chemical discharge, and operational problems such as membrane fouling.

Household attitudes toward wastewater recycling in Saudi Arabia

Domestic water supply is an essential but challenging public service, especially in countries with rapid population growth and limited freshwater resources. Wastewater recycling has now become a sustainable source of domestic water supply worldwide. In Saudi Arabia, the energy-intensive desalination process meets over 60% of municipal water demand, rising by about 6% within the last two decades. The government has set an ambitious target of complete recycling of treated wastewater in major cities by 2040. Based on a questionnaire survey of 625 households, this study investigates household willingness to reuse treated greywater (TG) for non-drinking domestic applications and the factors that influence their attitudes toward wastewater recycling. The findings indicate more acceptability (agree or strongly agree) of reusing TG for laundering (males: 36.9%, females: 31.7%) than bathing (males: 11.6%, females: 12.1%). Chi-Square analyses show that residential location, age, and education significantly influence household attitudes to reuse TG, but gender and nationality do not. There is more prospect of agreeing to reuse TG for laundering than bathing across all ages groups, residential locations, nationalities, and genders. Educational attainment is the only significant predictor of the likelihood of using TG for bathing and laundering with an odds ratio of 1.26 and 1.04, respectively. Age and gender are significant predictors of the odds of reusing TG for laundering only. Behavioral change campaigns are key to scaling up wastewater recycling to reduce reliance on expensive seawater desalination and dwindling freshwater resources.

An Evaluation of the Main Factors Affecting Future Municipal Water Demand Forecasting in Kuwait. (Dept. C)

An Evaluation of the Main Factors Affecting Future Municipal Water Demand Forecasting in Kuwait. (Dept. C)

Economic Analysis of Recreation Access at a Lake Facing Water Crisis due to Municipal Water Demand

Economic Analysis of Recreation Access at a Lake Facing Water Crisis due to Municipal Water Demand

Time Series Analysis of Monthly and Annual Precipitation in The State of Texas Using High-Resolution Radar Products

Precipitation is the main source for replenishing groundwater stored in aquifers for a myriad of beneficial purposes, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. A significant portion of the municipal and agricultural water demand is satisfied through groundwater withdrawals in Texas. These withdrawals have to be monitored and regulated to be in balance with the recharge amount from precipitation in order to ensure water security. The main goal of this study is to understand the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation in the 21st century using high spatial resolution stage-IV radar data over the state of Texas and examine some climatic controls behind this variability. The results will shed light on the trends of precipitation and hence will contribute to improving water resources management strategies and policies. Pettit’s test and Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), tools for detecting change-point in the monthly precipitation, suggested change-points have occurred across the state around the years 2013 and 2014. The test for the homogeneity of the data before and after 2013 revealed that, in over 64% of the state, the precipitation means were significantly different. The Panhandle region (northern part) is the only part of the state that did not show a significant difference in the mean precipitation before and after 2013. Theil-Sen’s slope test, Correlated Seasonal Mann-Kendall Test, and Cox and Stuart Trend Test all indicated that there were no significant trends in the monthly precipitation after 2013 in over 98% of the area of the state. Texas precipitation was found to be influenced significantly by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A significant correlation in more than 82% and 60% of the state was found with ENSO at two-month and with PDO at four-month lag, respectively.

A Comparative Study for the Variables Affecting Municipal Water Demand. (Dept. C)

A Comparative Study for the Variables Affecting Municipal Water Demand. (Dept. C)

A novel methodology to predict monthly municipal water demand based on weather variables scenario

This study provides a novel methodology to predict monthly water demand based on several weather variables scenarios by using combined techniques including discrete wavelet transform, principal component analysis, and particle swarm optimisation. To our knowledge, the adopted approach is the first technique to be proposed and applied in the water demand prediction. Compared to traditional methods, the developed methodology is superior in terms of predictive accuracy and runtime. Water consumption coupled with weather variables of the Melbourne City, from 2006 to 2015, were obtained from the South East Water retail company. The results showed that using data pre-processing techniques can significantly improve the quality of data and to select the best model input scenario. Additionally, it was noticed that the particle swarm optimisation algorithm accurately predicts the constants of the suggested model. Furthermore, the results confirmed that the proposed methodology accurately estimated the monthly data of municipal water demand based on a range of statistical criteria.

Forecasting of monthly stochastic signal of urban water demand: Baghdad as a case study

Forecasting of municipal water demand is essential for the decision-making process in the water industry in particular for countries that suffered from water scarcity. An accurate prediction of water demand improves the water distribution systems’ performance. This study analyses the water consumption data of Baghdad city using a signal pre-treatment processing approach aiming at a stochastic signal extraction of such data. An autoregressive (AR) model is then applied to predict monthly water consumption. Our prediction model has been trained and tested using a water consumption data captured from Al-Wehda treatment plant between 2006 and 2015. The results reveal that applying signal pre-treatment method was an effective approach for detecting stochastics of our water consumption data, and the hybrid model was reliable for the prediction of water demand.