Municipal GDP Research Articles

Economic–Sanitation–Environmental (Dis)Connections in Brazil: A Trans-Scale Perspective From Minas Gerais State and BH Microregion

Brazil’s economic, environmental, and infrastructural landscape is characterised by local and regional inequalities, particularly evident in Minas Gerais state and the municipalities surrounding its capital, Belo Horizonte (BH) microregion. This research examines three primary domains: (a) economic metrics such as GDP per capita, wages, and formal employment; (b) the availability of clean water and sewage systems; and (c) the frequency of emergency decrees. It aims to ascertain whether these factors can delineate economic, health, and socio-environmental divides within the BH microregion and between its urban and rural areas. Economically, a pronounced gap exists between GDP growth and wage stability, underscoring disparities between the BH microregion and the broader state. While the BH microregion boasts higher salaries and GDP, it also grapples with a heightened cost of living. Disparities in water and sewage infrastructure are stark between urban and non-urban locales, with the latter often lacking access. Emergency decrees are correlated with municipal GDP, with lower-GDP areas experiencing more crises, albeit to a lesser extent in the BH microregion. Cluster analysis reveals a nexus between frequent emergencies, lower GDP, and improved access to water and sewage services. Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive public policies to foster local well-being and alleviate economic, infrastructural, and environmental disparities within both the state and the BH microregion.

Heterogeneous Effect of “Eco-Friendly” Dwellings on Transaction Prices in Real Estate Market in Portugal

The main objective of this research is to assess the impact of energy certificate ratings (EPCs) on the value per m2 of Portuguese housing sales. Data from 289 Portuguese municipalities between 2014 and 2019, analysed with a fixed effects panel and method of moments quantile regression, were used. EPCs with high energy efficiency ratings (e.g., A+, A, B, and B-) are used as a proxy for dwellings with “green” or “environmentally friendly” certificates. On the other hand, ratings with a low energy efficiency (e.g., C, D, E, and F) are used as a proxy for dwellings with “non-green” or “not environmentally friendly” certificates. The results support that EPCs associated with green housing increase the value per m2 of housing sales, and those associated with non-green housing decrease the sales value. It was also found that municipal GDP, tax/financial incentive policies for energy efficiency, and the number of completed dwellings in new constructions for family housing will increase sales value. On the other hand, credit agreements and completed reconstructions reduce sales value. Lastly, the results and outgrowths of this study will support the policymakers and governments in developing consistent policies and initiatives that promote the “green” or “eco-friendly” dwellings in Portugal or in similar economies.

Microempreendedores individuais e o desenvolvimento econômico nos municípios paulistas de 2010 a 2014

Study Aims: to analyze the significant relationship contribution of Individual Microentrepreneurs (MEI) in the socioeconomic development of São Paulo municipalities in the period from 2010 to 2014. Methodology: quantitative approach, of an explanatory nature, with documentary research on data from 637 municipalities in the state of São Paulo. Based on the studies by Silva & Porto Júnior (2006) and Caldarelli & Perdigão (2018), the Gross Domestic Product (Municipal GDP) and the Firjan Municipal Development Index (IFDM) were defined as dependent variables and the total of Existing MEIs per municipality. Main results: there were evidenced positive and significant coefficients of MEI´s in 24 municipalities in São Paulo with low and medium socioeconomic growth, in 2014. Methodological contributions: use of the Quantile Regression technique, more appropriate to estimate independent variables categorized by high variability, as demonstrated in the studies by Hao & Naiman (1949), Santos (2012), Das, Krzywinski & Altman (2019) and Koenker & Hallock (2001). Relevance and originality: the study expands, in part, the understanding of previous studies on the different relationships pointed out between the MEI, the GDP and the IDFM of municipalities in different categories of municipal socioeconomic development. Contributions to management: public managers, from both small and medium or large cities, based on differentiated actions consistent with each context, have a policy of fostering and supporting the creation of micro and small businesses with one of the effective ways to enhance and impact socioeconomic development.

Obtaining the Municipal GDP in Hidalgo. Regional polarization and economic imbalances.

Using economic indicators at municipal level is a nearly impossible task. National Institute of Statistics and Geography, Mexico, does not offer statistics on municipal GDP. For this reason, the aim of this work was to obtain data disaggregated at the local level. The main contribution of the research was to calculate the GDP in the 84 municipalities of the state of Hidalgo. The methodology proposed by Luis Unikel was used to achieve this. This methodology argues that it is feasible, to obtain an index of personnel occupied by municipality and, with it, to obtain a consistent series of panel data by municipalities. The Research prove with calculated estimates and data for all municipalities

Budget Revenue Forecasts, Errors and Impact on the Indebtedness of the Municipalities of Maranhão

This study aimed to identify the factors that lead to the indebtedness of the municipalities of Maranhão. The study covers the years 2014-2016. Economic methods with panel data and socioeconomic variables were used: municipal GDP per capita, FIRJAN tax management index (IFGF), and level of education of the public manager. In the results, it was possible to observe that the budget revenue forecast error positively affects the 1% level of debt significance in the year, which means implications for one unit of Real (BRL) of budget revenue, incorrectly predicted in the LOAs of the municipalities Maranhão, leads to an increase between BRL 0.49 and BRL 0.62, in the debt of the relevant financial year. As variables such as GDP per capita, the IFGF and the dummies and the level of education were not statistically significant to explain the increase in debt, allowing to deduce the forecast error (planning) of budget revenue by itself, it is an important determinant that contributes, with high statistical significance, which impacts on the increase of the indebtedness of the municipalities of Maranhão.

A seca e seus desdobramentos: reflexões a partir da realidade da Microrregião de Pau dos Ferros

A região Nordeste sempre foi vista como a região da seca, do subdesenvolvimento, do homem desamparado e de diversos outros estereótipos que consagraram a caracterização de sua configuração humana, econômica e espacial pelas outras regiões do país. A ausência de água é um aspecto marcante, que além de flagelar o nordestino, é utilizada como aporte político para muitos representantes governamentais adotarem discursos de “solução à seca” com a finalidade de adquirirem apoio popular. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar a perda de importância das atividades rurais na microrregião de Pau dos Ferros/RN e discutir as medidas emergenciais adotadas para amenizar a escassez de água com ênfase neste município. Para tanto, foi realizado levantamento de dados com foco nas variáveis População e Produto Interno Bruto Agropecuário, extraídos das bases de dados do IBGE; coletados dados na Secretaria de Desenvolvimento Rural de Pau dos Ferros/RN; e realizadas buscas acerca da questão hídrica deste município em portais online. Diante disso, o que se observou foi a relativa perda de participação do PIB agropecuário na composição do PIB Municipal, redução da população rural nessa microrregião e a implantação de ações paliativas de combate à seca.

Impact of forest concessions on local jobs in central amazon

In the humid tropics, forest concessions have become the main mechanism of access to public forest resources. In Brazil, forest concessions began in 2006 with the creation of local jobs as one of its assumptions. The impact of the forest policy on employment was evaluated in the first forest concessions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used Synthetic Control method to evaluate the impact of the intervention (forest concession in 2010) for the period 2002–2015. The results revealed a positive effect on local forest jobs after a four-year time lapse from the beginning of forest operations. The municipality with the first Brazilian concessions benefited from an increase in forest jobs by concentrating the timber processing from local and neighboring forest concessions. According to our analyses, a 10% increase in municipal agricultural GDP results in a 3.53% increase in forest jobs; an increase of 10 employees in the previous year generates 6 more employees in the forestry sector in the following year; however, a 10% increase in sector's wages leads to a drop of 6.45 jobs in the forest sector. We concluded that for a forest-based economy to contribute to local development in Amazon municipalities, forest concessions need to combine jobs in the forest and industry. This would require broader and more integrated national and state development policies than those under the responsibilities of the environmental agencies that today manage the concessions.

Economic polarization of the Hidalgo Territory. An approach from the concept of space

When economic science is reflected, space is a fundamental element for its study, and is that it plays a key role in the development of economic activities. Each economy has a spatial dimension and production factors operate through space. Economic operators determine their localization decisions and this can largely determine the development of a region. Using economic indicators at municipal level is a nearly impossible task. INEGI (National Institute of Statistics and Geography) does not offer statistics on municipal GDP in Hidalgo. With calculated estimates and data for all municipalities in Hidalgo, showed the existing polarization among them, the gap between the richest and the poorest municipalities was 330 times.

The relationship between municipal solid waste and greenhouse gas emissions: Evidence from Switzerland

Municipal solid waste generation is becoming a prominent issue in the environmental arena. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship among municipal waste generation, greenhouse gas emissions, and GDP in Switzerland over the period 1990–2017. We apply both time series procedures (stationarity and causality tests) and a Machine Learning approach. Empirical findings underline a bidirectional causal relationship between municipal solid waste generation and GDP, indicating that the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis holds for Switzerland. Moreover, we found that waste recovery (recycling and composting) is a key driver in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, in the Tree Model, the probability that a change in the waste recovery variable could lead to a reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions registered a value of 87%.

Evidências da importância da indústria e dos serviços para o crescimento econômico dos municípios brasileiros

Resumo A literatura baseada em Kaldor defende a indústria como o motor do crescimento econômico (engine of growth hypothesis). Contudo, trabalhos recentes destacam a relevância dos serviços para impulsionar o crescimento. Contribuindo para tal debate, o objetivo deste estudo é avaliar os efeitos das participações dos setores industrial e de serviços sobre o crescimento do produto per capita dos municípios brasileiros. Além disso, é averiguado se há efeitos heterogêneos em função do nível de renda municipal per capita e da importância de cada setor para a economia dos municípios. Para isso, são realizadas estimações econométricas em painel com dados de 1999 a 2012. As evidências sinalizam que a indústria tem papel importante sobre o crescimento nos municípios com menores níveis de renda. Porém, em municípios com níveis superiores de renda, a importância dos serviços como motor do crescimento é relativamente maior. As evidências sugerem, ainda, que as relações entre o crescimento econômico e as participações dos dois setores têm formato próximo a um “U-invertido”.

Socioeconomic and demographic determinants in the provision of assistance to elderly people with a fractured femur.

Femur fracture affects the elderly with high morbidity and mortality. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the profile of the assistance given to the elderly who have femoral fractures, relating to their socioeconomic and demographic conditions, in the state of Paraná between the years 2008 to 2013. These relationships were obtained through factor analysis and the development and analysis of the following rates: PAE - the potential of primary health care to the elderly, whose variable was represented by the contribution of the elderly to the municipal GDP, PAP - the potential of the primary health care to the population, represented by GDP per capita and TE - treatment efficiency represented by the annual rate of fractures and annual rate of death per residence. The municipalities were classified according to the rate variation range. In relation to PAE, 10 municipalities were classified with low potential of care for the elderly, 357 with moderate potential and 32 had low potential. In relation to PAE, 12 municipalities were classified with low potential of primary care for the elderly, 303 with moderate potential and 84 had low potential. In relation to TE, 109 municipalities showed high treatment efficiency, 110 with moderate efficiency and 180 had low efficiency. Our conclusion was that the performance of the economy exerts significant influence on femoral fracture morbidity in the elderly.

Does economic performance affect officials’ turnover? Evidence from municipal government leaders in China

As is well known, Chinese central government has full authority to determine the provincial and local officials’ turnover. However, China has not in detail interpreted the standards of officials’ promotions so far. In this paper, the latest database of city-level leaders for the period between 2002 and 2013 is utilized to investigate the influences of economic performance on party secretaries’ odds of being promoted. The estimation results by a panel multinomial logit method indicate that municipal annual GDP per capita is significantly positively associated with leaders’ chances of promotion. Specifically, the average GDP growth rates during leaders’ tenures have much higher effects. Moreover, some important factors of leaders’ personal characteristics also affect the political turnover. For instance, party secretaries’ connection with China’s Communist Youth League, political experience, educational level and professional expertise all have positive impacts on their chances of obtaining a promotion. In contrast, leaders’ ages and tenures are found to be negatively related to their promotion possibilities.

The Relationship between Economic Growth and Municipal Solid Waste & Testing the EKC Hypothesis: Analysis for Saudi Arabia

This paper empirically investigates two main points: application of the VECM test to examine the relationship between economic growth and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation using municipal services, GDP and population growth; and the application of the OLS regression to validate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for MSW over the period of 1980-2012 in Saudi Arabia. The results show that there is a long-standing relationship between the variables under examination, and that the EKC hypothesis is not valid for MSW in Saudi Arabia. Even though there is an inverted U-shaped because the turning point is very high compared with GDP in that period. Saudi Arabia needs to implement new policies and adopt new technologies that help to reduce MSW generation in order to achieve sustainable development in future.

Relação entre indicadores de gestão pública e de desenvolvimento dos municípios brasileiros

O objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi avaliar a relação entre os indicadores de gestão pública (IFGF – Índice Firjan de Gestão Fiscal) e os de desenvolvimento dos municípios brasileiros (IFDM – Índice Firjan de Desenvolvimento Municipal). Os dados foram de mensuração anual, secundários, dispostos em um painel referente aos anos de 2006 a 2011. Observaram-se, nos municípios brasileiros, nível de desenvolvimento médio moderado e indicadores de gestão pública municipal em dificuldade crítica, excluindo-se o custo da dívida e gastos com pessoal, variáveis que foram analisadas pela Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal ao longo do tempo. Verificou-se que os municípios apresentam oscilações temporais nos investimentos públicos municipais, em períodos cíclicos cujas trajetórias coincidem com períodos antes das eleições. Os resultados das regressões de dados em painel evidenciaram que o desenvolvimento municipal foi explicado em 33,75% pelo conjunto dos indicadores de gestão pública municipal com PIB Per capita municipal.

ESTIMATIVAS DE VOTOS DE DILMA ROUSSEFF NAS ELEIÇÕES PRESIDENCIAIS DE 2010 SOB O ÂMBITO DO BOLSA FAMÍLIA

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the Bolsa Familia program’s expenses during the presidential elections of 2010. The beta regression model was adjusted in order to explain the percentage of valid votes from the Northeast region in Dilma Rousseff during the second round of the 2010 elections. Factors such as the poverty ratio, the municipal GDP, the percentage of votes Lula got in 2006 as well as the Bolsa Familia program’s per capita spending all had a positive impact on the percentage of votes in Dilma in the 2010 elections. We’ve established the impact of the Bolsa Familia program in the 2010 elections: had the program being given no budget during the 2010 elections, President Dilma would have lost approximately 2,125 million votes from the Northeast region.

Corruption and turnout in Portugal—a municipal level study

This article ventures to be one of the first studies that examines the relationship between corruption and electoral turnout on the sub-national level. Taking Portugal, a southern European country with nationally relatively high levels of corruption and relatively low levels of turnout, as a case, we examine the relationship between the two concepts across Portugal’s 304 out of 308 municipalities for the legislative elections in 2005 and 2009. Controlling for municipal level GDP per capita, unemployment, the percentage of senior citizens, and population density, as well as the closeness of the election and the district magnitude, we find corruption to be a rather strong mobilizing agent. Compared to “clean” municipalities, our results indicate that turnout is several percentage points higher in “very corrupt” municipalities.