Multiyear Sea Ice Research Articles

Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea

Recent Arctic changes are likely due to coupled Arctic amplification mechanisms with increased linkage between Arctic climate and sub-Arctic weather. Historically, sea ice grew rapidly in autumn, a strong negative radiative feedback. But increased sea-ice mobility, loss of multi-year sea ice, enhanced heat storage in newly sea ice-free ocean areas, and modified wind fields form connected positive feedback processes. One-way shifts in the Arctic system are sensitive to the combination of episodic intrinsic atmospheric and ocean variability and persistent increasing greenhouse gases. Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 showed a unique connectivity between the Arctic and more southern weather patterns when the typical polar vortex was replaced by high geopotential heights over the central Arctic and low heights over mid-latitudes that resulted in record snow and low temperatures, a warm Arctic - cold continents pattern. The negative value of the winter (DJF 2009/10) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index associated with enhanced meridional winds was the lowest observed value since the beginning of the record in 1865. Wind patterns in December 2007 and 2008 also show an impact of warmer Arctic temperatures. A tendency for higher geopotential heights over the Arctic and enhanced meridional winds are physically consistent with continued loss of sea ice over the next 40 years. A major challenge is to understand the interaction of Arctic changes with climate patterns such as the NAO, Pacific North American and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Keywords: Climate change; sea ice; atmospheric circulation; North Atlantic Oscillation (Published: 29 December 2011) Citation: Polar Research 2011, 30, 15787, DOI: 10.3402/polar.v30i0.15787

A model of the three‐dimensional evolution of Arctic melt ponds on first‐year and multiyear sea ice

During winter the ocean surface in polar regions freezes over to form sea ice. In the summer the upper layers of sea ice and snow melts producing meltwater that accumulates in Arctic melt ponds on the surface of sea ice. An accurate estimate of the fraction of the sea ice surface covered in melt ponds is essential for a realistic estimate of the albedo for global climate models. We present a melt‐pond–sea‐ice model that simulates the three‐dimensional evolution of melt ponds on an Arctic sea ice surface. The advancements of this model compared to previous models are the inclusion of snow topography; meltwater transport rates are calculated from hydraulic gradients and ice permeability; and the incorporation of a detailed one‐dimensional, thermodynamic radiative balance. Results of model runs simulating first‐year and multiyear sea ice are presented. Model results show good agreement with observations, with duration of pond coverage, pond area, and ice ablation comparing well for both the first‐year ice and multiyear ice cases. We investigate the sensitivity of the melt pond cover to changes in ice topography, snow topography, and vertical ice permeability. Snow was found to have an important impact mainly at the start of the melt season, whereas initial ice topography strongly controlled pond size and pond fraction throughout the melt season. A reduction in ice permeability allowed surface flooding of relatively flat, first‐year ice but had little impact on the pond coverage of rougher, multiyear ice. We discuss our results, including model shortcomings and areas of experimental uncertainty.

Seasonality of spectral albedo and transmittance as observed in the Arctic Transpolar Drift in 2007

The first continuous and high temporal resolution record of spectral albedo and transmittance of snow and sea ice in the Arctic Ocean over an entire summer season is presented. Measurements were performed at a manned station on multiyear sea ice in the Transpolar Drift during the drift of the schooner Tara from April to September 2007. Concurrent autonomous measurements of ice mass balance and weekly observations of snow and sea‐ice properties complement the data set. The seasonality of physical and biological processes of snow and sea ice is characterized, including quantification of melt onset (10 June), melt season duration, and freeze onset (15 August). Over one year, approximately two thirds of the transmitted energy reached the ocean during the 66‐day‐long melt season. During the second half of July, transmitted irradiance decreased by 90% and absorption in and directly under the ice increased, significantly affecting the vertical partitioning of irradiance. The spectral radiation time series suggests that high biomass abundance in or below the sea ice caused this decrease. Comparing the spectral data set with broadband albedo data measured at the same location shows that 90% of the temporal variability of broadband albedo can be explained by variability in spectral albedo integrated over the limited wavelength range. The combination of spectral radiation and ice mass balance measurements allows a comprehensive description, and quantification, of snow and sea‐ice processes, even with minimal additional in situ observations, suggesting such data sets can be collected autonomously to provide insight into the physical and biological processes on sea ice.

Atmospheric HCH Concentrations over the Marine Boundary Layer from Shanghai, China to the Arctic Ocean: Role of Human Activity and Climate Change

From July to September 2008, air samples were collected aboard the research expedition icebreaker XueLong (Snow Dragon) as part of the 2008 Chinese Arctic Research Expedition Program. Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) concentrations were analyzed in all of the samples. The average concentrations (± standard deviation) over the entire period were 33 ± 16, 5.4 ± 3.0, and 13 ± 7.5 pg m⁻³ for α-, β- and γ-HCH, respectively. Compared to previous studies in the same areas, total HCH (ΣHCH, the sum of α-, β-, and γ-HCH) levels declined by more than 10 × compared to those observed in the 1990s, but were approximately 4 × higher than those measured by the 2003 China Arctic Research Expedition, suggesting the increase of atmospheric ΣHCH recently. Because of the continuing use of lindane, ratios of α/γ-HCH showed an obvious decrease in North Pacific and Arctic region compared with those for 2003 Chinese Arctic Research Expedition. In Arctic, the level of α-HCH was found to be linked to sea ice distribution. Geographically, the average concentration of α-HCH in air samples from the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, neither of which contain sea ice, was 23 ± 4.4 pg m⁻³, while samples from the area covered by seasonal ice (∼75°N to ∼83°N), the so-called "floating sea ice region", contained the highest average levels of α-HCH at 48 ± 12 pg m⁻³, likely due to emission from sea ice and strong air-sea exchange. The lowest concentrations of α-HCH were observed in the pack ice region in the high Arctic covered by multiyear sea ice (∼83°N to ∼86°N). This phenomenon implies that the re-emission of HCH trapped in ice sheets and Arctic Ocean may accelerate during the summer as ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean decreases in response to global climate change.

Contribution of melt in the Beaufort Sea to the decline in Arctic multiyear sea ice coverage: 1993–2009

For the summers of 1993 through 2009, we estimate the loss of multiyear sea ice (MYI) area in the Beaufort Sea due to melt. Parcels of MYI in April are traced into the Beaufort Sea where they melt as the ice edge retreats. Net loss of area (with fractional MYI coverage >50%) over the 17‐year period is ∼900 × 103 km2. Three‐quarters of that area, ∼10% of the area of the Arctic Ocean, was lost after 2000. There is a clear positive trend in the record, with a distinct peak of 213 × 103 km2 in 2008; this is twice the summer outflow at the Fram Strait that year. The net melt area of 490 × 103 km2 between 2005 and 2008 accounts for nearly 32% of the net loss of 1.54 × 106 km2 of Arctic Ocean MYI coverage over the same period. Volume loss, for the years with ICESat thickness (2004–2009), is highest at 473 km3 in 2008 followed by 320 km3 in 2007. Net loss in MYI volume for the six summers is ∼1400 km3. This is ∼20% of the loss in MYI volume of 6300 km3 during 2004–2008. This adds to the freshwater content of the Arctic Ocean and locally to the freshening of the Beaufort Gyre.

Early to middle Holocene valley glaciations on northernmost Greenland

This paper presents the glacial stratigraphy and palaeoenvironmental evolution around Constable Bugt, Johannes V. Jensen Land, located on the north coast of Greenland. This is a land of extreme climate: polar desert conditions and a coast bound by a permanent sea ice cover. Our data covers the period from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 18–22 cal ka BP) into the Holocene. It records the history of a shelf-based glaciation with ice flowing eastward along the coast as well as two local valley glacier advances from the south during the Holocene. With ice on the coastal plain during the LGM, glaciolacustrine basins formed in marginal positions and in ice-dammed valleys to the south into the mountainous area of Peary Land. With the break-up of shelf-based ice there was a gradual marine inundation at which the marine limit formed at ∼45 m a.s.l. This initial early Holocene ice advance from the south formed prominent valley mouth moraines, especially in Sifs valley. Here, both glaciolacustrine and marine sediments were remoulded and/or dislocated as thrust blocks into a moraine ridge spanning more than 1 km in width and >60 m in height. Radiocarbon ages of sediments incorporated in this moraine, as well as from on-lapping sediments, suggest that the moraine formed between 9.6 and 6.3 cal ka BP. Based on 14C dating results, the youngest ice advance phase can be narrowed down to 14C ages between ∼5.5–5.0 cal ka BP. The recorded ice advances took place during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) for North Greenland, the last one close to the beginning of the Neoglacial cooling. During the HTM we have recorded a period of ∼2500 years during which the north coast of Greenland – as opposed to today – experienced an absence to very restricted occurrence of land-fast or multi-year sea ice. This observation can be explained by the altitudinal and temporal distribution of beach-ridge complexes that must have formed by wave action and thus requiring at least partial open-water conditions. With a moisture source at hand, we propose that this lead to enhanced precipitation in the near-coastal areas which, coupled to documented HTM cold reversals, caused a lowered glaciation limit, and led to a positive mass balance and subsequent ice advance.

Late Quaternary glaciation history of northernmost Greenland – Evidence of shelf-based ice

We present the mapping of glacial landforms and sediments from northernmost Greenland bordering 100 km of the Arctic Ocean coast. One of the most important discoveries is that glacial landforms, sediments, including till fabric measurements, striae and stoss-lee boulders suggest eastward ice-flow along the coastal plain. Volcanic erratic boulders document ice-transport from 80 to 100 km west of the study area. We argue that these findings are best explained by local outlet glaciers from the Greenland Ice Sheet and local ice caps that merged to form a shelf-based ice in the Arctic Ocean and possibly confirming an extensive ice shelf in the Lincoln Sea between Greenland and Ellesmere Island. It is speculated that the shelf-based ice was largely affected by the presence of thick multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean that prevented it from breaking up and forced the outlet glaciers to flow eastwards. During the initial retreat the coastal area was dammed by the shelf-based ice and kame and glaciolacustrine sediments were deposited up to 50 m above the marine limit before the final deglaciation and marine transgression. The timing of the shelf-based ice is constrained on land by dating glaciolacustrine sediments with OSL and marine molluscs with radiocarbon and by re-evaluating IRD events in cores from the Fram Strait. Results show that the shelf-based ice started to build-up as early as 30 cal ka BP and reached a maximum during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The shelf-based ice began to retreat ca 16 ka to 10.3 cal ka BP before the final break-up, which took place ca 10.1 cal ka BP probably as a combined result of increased inflow of warm Atlantic water through the Fram Strait, a shallower halocline and higher summer temperatures, corresponding to orbital maximum solar insolation at this time. The existence of extensive shelf-based ice north of Greenland provides an important contribution to the understanding of the LGM glaciation history of the Arctic Ocean.

Submarine landforms and shallow acoustic stratigraphy of a 400 km-long fjord-shelf-slope transect, Kangerlussuaq margin, East Greenland

Kangerlussuaq Fjord is a relatively uniform, steep-walled basin, whose floor has an almost smooth surface. Debris is supplied mainly from icebergs from the fast-flowing Kangerlussuaq Glacier. Sedimentation after iceberg release from multi-year sea ice is mainly by rain-out of fine-grained englacial debris. Streamlined glacial lineations and drumlins were produced at the sedimentary bed of an ice sheet that expanded into Kangerlussuaq Trough at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Bedrock channels and crescentic overdeepenings indicate warm-based ice and free water beneath parts of the former ice sheet. Cross-cutting iceberg scour marks, which characterise outer Kangerlussuaq shelf, were produced not only during deglaciation, but also occasionally through the Holocene by deep-keeled icebergs from further north in East Greenland. The outward-convex contours of the shelf edge and slope beyond Kangerlussuaq Trough, and debris flows on the slope, suggest a glacier-influenced high-latitude fan. The distribution of streamlined subglacial landforms demonstrates that the Greenland Ice Sheet extended throughout Kangerlussuaq Fjord and reached at least 200 km across the shelf in Kangerlussuaq Trough at the LGM. Streamlined landform orientation indicates ice flow from the interior of Greenland down the axis of Kangerlussuaq Trough. There is little evidence for discrete sedimentary depocentres in the trough, implying that ice probably retreated rapidly from the outer and mid shelf during deglaciation.

Impacts of metals and nutrients released from melting multiyear Arctic sea ice

Nutrients (C, N, and P) and metals (iron, molybdenum, nickel, zinc, vanadium, copper, and cobalt) were determined in water and multiyear ice sampled along the Greenland current and Fram Strait in July 2007. Total metal and nutrient concentrations in ice varied fivefold to tenfold, for most elements, across the area sampled. Data show that some nutrients (i.e., NH4+) and metals (i.e., Fe, Zn, V, Cu, Ni, Mo, and Co) are enriched in Arctic ice relative to surface seawaters, suggesting that ice melting is a significant source of metals to the receiving seawaters, particularly Fe and Zn whose concentrations were significantly (t test, P < 0.05) more than 2 orders of magnitude higher in ice than in surface seawater.

CO2 fluxes across the air‐sea interface in the southeastern Beaufort Sea: Ice‐free period

Surface mixed layer CO2 fugacities (fCO2‐sw) calculated from carbonate system parameters in the southeastern Beaufort Sea during the ice‐free period ranged from 240 to 350 μatm in fall 2003 and from 175 to 515 μatm in summer 2004. The surface mixed layer remains mostly undersaturated with respect to atmospheric CO2 (378 μatm) and, therefore, acts as a potential CO2 sink throughout this period. Air‐sea CO2 fluxes (FCO2) were first computed assuming ice‐free conditions and ranged from −32.4 to +8.6 mmol m−2 d−1 in fall 2003 and summer 2004, respectively. Then we included a reduction factor to account for ice cover (ic) and we computed the resulting fluxes (FCO2‐ic). In fall 2003, FCO2‐ic ranged from −4.7 mmol m−2 d−1 in the relatively open water of the Cape Bathurst Polynya to −0.1 mmol m−2 d−1 in the southeastern Beaufort Sea, limited by the presence of the multiyear sea ice. In summer 2004, FCO2‐ic ranged from −13.1 mmol m−2 d−1 on the western Mackenzie Shelf to +8.6 mmol m−2 d−1 at Cape Bathurst; the variability being ascribed to competing effects of vertical mixing, temperature variations, and possibly biological production. On average, a net sink of −2.3 ± 3.5 mmol m−2 d−1 was estimated for the ice‐free period over the study area. Nevertheless, the FCO2 displays strong variability due to ice coverage, freshwater input, and upwelling events. The potential responses (direction and intensity of potential feedbacks) of the carbon cycle in the study area to a changing Arctic climate are discussed.

Methane and nitrous oxide in surface water along the North-West Passage, Arctic Ocean

Dissolved methane and nitrous oxide in seawater were measured along a 6700 km transect of the North-West Passage between the North Atlantic Ocean and Beaufort Sea in the Arctic Ocean. Over- and under-saturation with respect to atmospheric equilibrium were observed for both gases. Methane and nitrous oxide were in the range of 58–528% and 82–181% saturation, respectively. Under-saturation was attributed to melt-water with low methane and nitrous oxide, while over-saturation was found under multi-year sea-ice. Elevated methane was also found in the vicinity of the marginal ice zones and the Mackenzie River plume. Our data support both water column and sedimentary sources of methane and nitrous oxide. We found first-order methane oxidation in surface seawater with a rate constant of 3.8 × 10 − 3 h − 1. Based on these results and a conceptual model, we suggest that future sea-ice retreat may decrease the residence times of methane and nitrous oxide in the surface Arctic Ocean and thus enhance the sea–air flux of these climatically active gases.

Large sea ice outflow into the Nares Strait in 2007

Sea ice flux through the Nares Strait is most active during the fall and early winter, ceases in mid‐ to late‐winter after the formation of ice arches along the strait, and re‐commences after breakup in summer. In 2007, ice arches failed to form. This resulted in the highest outflow of Arctic sea ice in the 13‐year record between 1997 and 2009. The 2007 area and volume outflows of 87 × 103 km2 and 254 km3 are more than twice their 13‐year means. This contributes to the recent loss of the thick, multiyear Arctic sea ice and represents ∼10% of our estimates of the mean ice export at Fram Strait. Clearly, the ice arches control Arctic sea ice outflow. The duration of unobstructed flow explains more than 84% of the variance in the annual area flux. In our record, seasonal stoppages are always associated with the formation of an arch near the same location in the southern Kane Basin. Additionally, close to half the time another ice arch forms just north of Robeson Channel prior to the formation of the Kane Basin arch. Here, we examine the ice export with satellite‐derived thickness data and the timing of the formation of these ice arches.

Arctic Report Card

The 2009 annual update of the Arctic Report Card, issued on 22 October, indicates that “warming of the Arctic continues to be widespread, and in some cases dramatic. Linkages between air, land, sea, and biology are evident.” The report, a collaborative effort of 71 national and international scientists initiated in 2006 by the Climate Program Office of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), highlights several concerns, including a change in large‐scale wind patterns affected by the loss of summer sea ice; the replacement of multiyear sea ice by first‐year sea ice; warmer and fresher water in the upper ocean linked to new ice‐free areas; and the effects of the loss of sea ice on Arctic plant, animal, and fish species.“Climate change is happening faster in the Arctic than any other place on Earth—and with wide‐ranging consequences,” said NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco. “This year's Arctic Report Card underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas pollution and adapting to climate changes already under way.”

A review of the engineering properties of sea ice

Operations in ice-covered waters require good engineering to ensure the safety of personnel and the environment. In polar regions, the presence of sea ice is the main factor hindering the operations. It affects shipping, and oil and gas exploration and development. This paper looks at the stage of knowledge and applications of the engineering properties of sea ice. The physical properties (microstructure, thickness, salinity, porosity, and density) and the mechanical properties (tensile, flexural, shear, uni-axial compression and multi-axial compression strength, borehole strength, failure envelope, creep, elastic and strain modulus, Poisson's ratio, fracture toughness and friction) are explored. The paper outlines these properties for both first-year sea ice and Old Ice (i.e. second-year and multi-year sea ice). Although some properties are reasonably well understood (microstructure, salinity, flexural strength, compressive strength, and elastic modulus), others are not. Knowledge of Old Ice is particularly limited.

Climate tendencies of changes in multiyear sea ice thickness in the Arctic Basin (1970–2005)

The area integral of the sea ice thickness in the Arctic Basin is estimated from the measurements of sea ice surface fluctuations at drift-ice stations. The 1970–1990 linear trend is indicative of an approximately 10-cm reduction in the average sea ice thickness over the entire Arctic Basin, which makes 3% of the average ice thickness (about 3 m). Seasonal changes made 40 cm. The amplitude of variations of the average ice thickness in that period is 20 cm with a period of changes of approximately 6–8 years. The observations were interrupted during 1991–2003 and then resumed in 2004. During 1990–2005, the old ice thickness over the entire Arctic Basin decreased, on average, by 110 cm.

Climate Impacts on Northern Canada: Regional Background

Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land-based renewable resource-subsistence activities still being a major part of many local economies.

C-Band Scatterometer Measurements of Multiyear Sea Ice Before Fall Freeze-Up in the Canadian Arctic

Backscatter signatures of multiyear sea ice (MYI) during the late summer and early fall season before the fall freeze-up in the Canadian Arctic archipelago (CAA) have been obtained through the use of a ship-based polarimetric scatterometer. The device operates in C-band, and measurements were conducted in swaths from incidence angles of 20 <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">deg</sup> -60 <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">deg</sup> . Three characteristic sites on MYI floes were investigated in the high Arctic and the central Arctic regions. <i xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">In</i> <i xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">situ</i> snow and sea-ice thermophysical data were collected at each site in conjunction with local scatterometer measurements. The thermophysical data were subsequently analyzed using dielectric modeling techniques and coupled with the backscattering measurements (sigma <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">deg</sup> ). Observed backscatter values and ratios were found to be in agreement with literature data, with volumetric scattering as the dominant scattering mechanism.

Sea ice type and open water discrimination using dual co-polarized C-band SAR

We investigate the utility of dual co-polarized C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery for discriminating sea ice types and open water during winter. We base our analysis on ENVISAT ASAR alternating vertical and horizontal polarization (VV, HH) medium-resolution imagery of thin sea ice, first-year sea ice, multiyear sea ice, and open water in the Canadian Arctic. We introduce a methodology for generating colour composite imagery (based on VV, HH, and co-polarization ratio channels) that substantially enhances visual discrimination. We statistically compare sampled vertical and horizontal backscatter from sea ice types and open water to assess backscatter magnitudes and polarization differences. The latter are presented as co-polarized ratio (VV/HH) values in decibels (dB). We conclude by presenting a decision-tree classifier using estimated statistical thresholds. Open water is unambiguously discriminated (>99% accuracy) from all sea ice types, except thin sea ice, using a co-polarized ratio threshold of 2 dB. Thin sea ice exhibits high variability in backscatter magnitude and polarization difference, making its discrimination from multiyear sea ice, rough first-year sea ice, and open water ambiguous. Thin sea ice is effectively discriminated (93% accuracy) from smooth first-year sea ice using a co-polarized ratio threshold of 1.3 dB. Smooth snow-covered first-year sea ice exhibits polarization differences that are attributed to volume scattering mechanisms within the brine-wetted snow cover.

Validation of three global ocean models in the Weddell Sea

We present a validation of three global z-level eddy-permitting/resolving ocean general circulation models against hydrographic observations and remote sensing sea ice data from the Weddell Sea. The Weddell Sea is a region in which complex processes such as water mass formation, sea ice formation and melt, and circulation under ice shelves take place. The representation of these processes is challenging even for the current generation of eddy-permitting ocean models. Simulating the hydrographic structure of this basin is a stringent test for models, notably so when considering the global influence of the regional processes. The performance of OCCAM (at two resolutions), ORCA025 and TPAC are tested regarding water mass properties, sea ice seasonality (OCCAM and ORCA025 only) and volume transport. OCCAM simulates the deep water masses reasonably well in both resolutions. The eddy-resolving run is not significantly better than the eddy-permitting simulation. ORCA025 and TPAC represent the surface layers and the Weddell Gyre circulation better but are generally too warm throughout the water column. All models underestimate Weddell Sea Bottom Water formation. Both OCCAM and ORCA025 struggle to correctly model the sea ice cover: OCCAM overestimates the summer ice extent while little multi-year sea ice remains in ORCA025. TPAC exhibits considerable drift in potential temperature during the model run. The choice of a model for a study has to be made carefully taking into account the model’s performance in the specific area, application and variable of interest. We identify several starting points for improving the models, namely model numerics and parameterisations of subgridscale processes, ensuring more accurate forcing datasets, correct initialisation, and ice–ocean interactions, all of which are likely to have larger benefits than simply increasing the horizontal resolution beyond eddy permitting.

Arctic epishelf lakes as sentinel ecosystems: Past, present and future

Ice shelves are a prominent but diminishing feature of the northern coastline of Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic (latitude 82–83°N). By blocking embayments and fiords, this thick coastal ice can create epishelf lakes, which are characterized by a perennially ice‐capped water column of freshwater overlying seawater. The goal of this study was to synthesize new, archived, and published data on Arctic epishelf lakes in the context of climate change. Long‐term changes along this coastline were evaluated using historical reports, cartographic analysis, RADARSAT imagery, and field measurements. These data, including salinity‐temperature profiling records from Disraeli Fiord spanning 54 years, show the rapid decline and near disappearance of this lake type in the Arctic. Salinity‐temperature profiling of Milne Fiord, currently blocked by the Milne Ice Shelf, confirmed that it contained an epishelf lake composed of a 16‐m thick freshwater layer overlying seawater. A profiling survey along the coast showed that there was a continuum of ice‐dammed lakes from shallow systems dammed by multiyear landfast sea ice to deep epishelf lakes behind ice shelves. The climate warming recently observed in this region likely contributed to the decline of epishelf lakes over the last century, and the air temperature trend predicted for the Arctic over the next several decades implies the imminent loss of this ecosystem type. Our results underscore the distinctive properties of coastal ice‐dammed lakes and their value as sentinel ecosystems for the monitoring of regional and global climate change.