Multipolar Order Research Articles

Shaping the Global Future: The Strategic Influence of the Emerging Global South in the New International Order (2022)

The reconfiguration of the international order in 2022 signifies a pronounced shift in global power dynamics, with the ascendant Global South increasingly asserting itself as a transformative force in redefining governance structures and economic paradigms. This study interrogates the pivotal role of emerging economies across Africa, Asia, and Latin America in contesting the entrenched hegemony of the Global North. It foregrounds the expanding influence of multilateral coalitions such as BRICS, the G20, and various regional alignments, which collectively champion a more equitable and multipolar global order. Central to this inquiry is an examination of how these states strategically deploy economic cooperation, South-South trade, and alternative financial architectures to assert their geopolitical agency on the international stage. Furthermore, the analysis delves into the nuanced geopolitical manoeuvres these nations employ to navigate an increasingly complex global landscape marked by intensified great power rivalry, economic volatility, and emergent security challenges. Through a rigorous examination of case studies, this research posits that the Global South is transitioning from a reactive posture to a proactive role in forging a new international paradigm centred on inclusivity, sustainability, and diversified leadership. The findings suggest that the collective ascendancy of these nations heralds a pivotal transformation in global relations, with far-reaching consequences for the trajectory of global governance. Received: 21 August 2024 / Accepted: 5 November 2024 / Published: 20 November 2024

The return of nuclear great power politics (or why we stopped worrying about terrorists and the bomb)

Abstract With the decline of the Western framing of the war on terror (WoT) in security discourse, it has become commonplace to note the ‘return’ of great power politics. But under-analysed so far have been the nuclear dimensions of this trend. This is important because we are on the cusp of a multipolar order where the ‘poles of power’ are nuclear-armed. We outline the ways in which almost 30 years of perceptions of unipolarity, and particularly the focus on ‘rogue’ and non-state (nuclear) terrorism post 9/11 on the part of Western policy practitioners, analysts, and scholars, allowed for the previous focus on the threat of nuclear war to be supplanted by a wider ‘nuclear security’ agenda. We unpack the return of nuclear threats and risk-taking in the Euro-Atlantic, the nuclear deterrence balance in the Western Pacific, and the emergence of a non-aligned nuclear great power in the Global South. While we argue that managing the dangers of the return of nuclear great power politics will require a dual approach drawing lessons from both from the Cold War ‘balance of terror’ and from an earlier era of a multipolar ‘balance of power’, many key dynamics from the WoT years remain.

Reconceptualising Security-development Paradigm: A Critical Analysis of Chinese ‘Development Peace Model’ in the Middle East

In recent years, China has emerged as a significant player in the intersection of international security and development in the Middle East. This development coincides with a decline in the enduring dominance of the US in the region’s security and development affairs. In contrast, China has pursued a cautious, impartial and novel concept of zero enemy policy with regional states. While existing research has explored Chinese economic engagement in the Middle East, literature focusing on the ‘Development Peace Model’ in relation to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) remains limited. This article aims to provide a critical analysis of how China’s pursuit of a multi-polar world order, based on principles of neutrality and partnership for promoting stability through the ‘Development Peace Model’, offers an alternative approach to ‘Liberal Democratic Peace’ in the Middle East. Furthermore, the article examines why Middle Eastern states are receptive to China’s ‘Development Peace Model’ as they seek to address their economic crises.

Minilateralism and global governance: effectiveness of hybrid models

ABSTRACT The liberal world order is showing signs of disarray: two recent catastrophes in adjoining parts of the world (the Middle East and South Caucasus) have opened the fissures of the international governance gap; and the continuing ramifications of COVID-19 have already paralysed the world. On top of this post-pandemic disquietude, multiple conflicts this year are either in danger of precipitating or wars have already re-ignited over long-standing continuing conflicts, highlighting the failure of international governance institutions, including the UN system. In recent years, one of the central responses to the multilateral failures at multiple levels has been for states to form ‘narrower’ and ‘more flexible’ frameworks called ‘minilaterals’. Thus minilateralism has been contrasted through the lens of receding multilateralism, which has been a long-standing hallmark of the American-led liberal international order. This paper examines how far global governance would be dependent on minilateralism by exploring this growing trend in the Indo-Pacific and explores how minilateralism models can enhance international governance structures. This paper also attempts to analyse whether minilateralism is a product of regional fragmentation, or whether it can reinvigorate the comatose multilateralism. Then this paper posits that minilateralism helps rejig the chaotic multipolar order and thus re-invent global governance.

Resilience of DBI screened objects and their ladder symmetries

Scalar field theories with a shift symmetry come equipped with the K-mouflage (or kinetic screening) mechanism that suppresses the scalar interaction between massive objects below a certain distance, the screening radius. In this work, we study the linear response of the scalar field distribution around a screened (point-like) object subject to a long range external scalar field perturbation for the Dirac-Born-Infeld theory. We find that, for regular boundary conditions at the position of the particle, some multipoles have vanishing response for a lacunar series of the multipole order ℓ for any dimension. Some multipoles also exhibit a logarithmic running when the number of spatial dimensions is even. We construct a ladder operator structure, with its associated ladder symmetries, formed by two sets of ladders that are related to the properties of the linear response and the existence of conserved charges. Our results exhibit a remarkable resemblance with the Love numbers properties of black holes in General Relativity, although some intriguing differences subsist.

BRICS Expansion: A Geopolitical Triumph of Partner Countries

The BRICS organization is making significant and consistent progress in its development. The 15th BRICS Summit was held in Johannesburg from 22 to 24 August 2023. This summit is a global event that sets the trends and guiding principles for future economic policies. Four of the five BRICS member countries are among the ten largest countries in the world in terms of GDP, territory and population. According to open sources, the total area of the BRICS countries is 39.7 million square kilometers (26.7% of the world’s land surface), and the population is estimated at3.2 billion people (41.5% of the world’s population). The economic potential of BRICS, as the leading economic organization in the world, is more than significant. These competitive advantages in the economy and financial sphere represent an enormous resource of industrial, human and technological potential that can serve as the locomotive of the global economy. Following the conclusion of the above summit, the leaders of the BRICS countries adopted the final “Johannesburg-2” declaration, which noted the advisability of using their countries’ respective national currencies in international trade and collectively resolving problems related to international debt. In addition, decisions were made to expand BRICS and admit new member states to the organization. BRICS has established itself as a prominent entity on the global stage, whose influence in world affairs is consistently strengthening. The strategic course of their unification is aimed at planning for the future and meets the interests of the leading nations of the international community, the so-called world majority. By acting cohesively on the principles of equality, partnership support and mutual consideration, the BRICS member countries are effectively addressing the most pressing issues on the global and regional agenda. The BRICS member states are strongly in favor of the establishment of a multipolar world order that is based on international law and is fair. At the same time, they are committed to adhering to the fundamental principles of the United Nations Charter. BRICS is the most important guarantor of the legal foundations of international relations and a fair world order in general. The recent expansion of the BRICS group is a significant event that enables the group to have an even greater influence in international affairs. The presented article analyzes the features of the recent expansion of BRICS and its impact on world geopolitics, taking into account the admission of new states to the organization. The distinctive features of the BRICS group activities and its role in relation to the G7 and G20 are revealed. The trends in the transition to a multipolar world are discussed. Furthermore, issues of political and economic cooperation between the different BRICS member countries are analyzed.

PROMISING DIRECTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN-MONGOLIAN RELATIONS FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF CIVILIZATIONAL POLITICAL SCIENCE

Russia’s current confrontation with the collective West forces us to pay attention to the countries of the East, in whose fate Russia once played a key role and which, unfortunately, it has decided one day to leave. One such power is Mongolia. The history of Russian-Mongolian relations is a clear illustration of the influence of the civilizational factor on the course of political processes. In order to take into account this factor for more effective development of bilateral relations at the current stage, it is necessary to identify the main directions of bilateral cooperation development, resorting both to the analysis of key bilateral political and legal regulatory documents and the provisions of the civilizational approach, which is the purpose of this article.Using the methodology of civilizational political science, the article examines and defines the main and possible directions for the development of RussianMongolian relations in the near future, identifies the main problems and suggests ways to solve them. Special emphasis is placed on those areas of cooperation that can be considered «civilizational». Interaction through public diplomacy is considered. It establishes the need to involve representatives of business, a number of government departments, as well as the public in order to achieve significant results. The inertia and inconsistency in the attitude of the Mongolian side towards bilateral projects are stated, the contours of the problem of Mongolia’s benevolent neutrality towards the countries of the Third Neighbor, and above all the United States, are determined. Based on the results of the study, the prospects of using the civilizational factor in the development of bilateral relations between Russia and Mongolia and the role it can play in the formation of a multipolar world order are assessed. The conclusion is made about how effective Russia’s return to Mongolia and strengthening of the Russian presence can be when giving bilateral relations a new civilizational dimension. It is specified that the fundamental acts of the two countries, which determine the main directions of foreign policy and build the contours of national security, can serve as a basis for this.

Dynamic Jahn-Teller effect in the strong spin-orbit coupling regime

Exotic quantum phases, arising from a complex interplay of charge, spin, lattice and orbital degrees of freedom, are of immense interest to a wide research community. A well-known example of such an entangled behavior is the Jahn-Teller effect, where the lifting of orbital degeneracy proceeds through lattice distortions. Here we demonstrate that a highly-symmetrical 5d1 double perovskite Ba2MgReO6, comprising a 3D array of isolated ReO6 octahedra, represents a rare example of a dynamic Jahn-Teller system in the strong spin-orbit coupling regime. Thermodynamic and resonant inelastic x-ray scattering experiments, supported by quantum chemistry calculations, undoubtedly show that the Jahn-Teller instability leads to a ground-state doublet, resolving a long-standing puzzle in this family of compounds. The dynamic state of ReO6 octahedra persists down to the lowest temperatures, where a multipolar order sets in, allowing for investigations of the interplay between a dynamic JT effect and strongly correlated electron behavior.

Evaluating the Impact of the Stride Model on India's Economic Development and Global Competitiveness by 2047

The study analyses the prospective influence of India's STRIDE model on its economic advancement and international competitiveness by 2047. The approach, concentrating on Startups, Technology and Innovation, Research and Development, Infrastructure, Deployment and Adoption, and Skill Enhancement and Capacity Building, seeks to propel India's global leadership, innovation, and economic resilience within a competitive and multipolar international order. Harmonising STRIDE's pillars with national and global objectives would bolster domestic economic expansion and establish India as a significant participant in the international sphere, fostering a balanced and inclusive global economy by 2047.

Sovereignization as a mechanism of effective economic security of Russia in the context of increasing geopolitical and geo-economic turbulence

Aim. To consider the impact of the current policy of sovereignty of the socio-economic system on the processes of ensuring Russia’s economic security in the conditions of increasing sanctions pressure of the collective West and increasing geopolitical and geo-economic turbulence provoked by the transformation of the unipolar world order. Objectives. To describe the mechanism of influence of Western sanctions on the state of economic security of the Russian Federation (RF); to analyze the state of the national economy in modern conditions and to propose a system of measures to buy the negative external impact, to ensure an acceptable level of economic security, guaranteeing the process of further economic growth in the long term; to propose directions of transformation of economic policy in order to increase the sustainability of the national economic system and qualitativec Methods. We used general scientific methods of research (synthesis, generalization, content analysis, graphical interpretation of data, etc.), as well as methods of strategic, situational, correlation and regression analysis, expert assessments, calculation and analytical methods. Results. The transition to a multipolar world order, which began in the last decade, provoked an unprecedented surge of geopolitical and geo-economic turbulence caused by the rethinking of their own national interests by a significant number of dynamically developing countries that are not part of the privileged caste of the “golden billion”. In response to the emerging threats of losing its dominance in the world, the collective West began to widely implement a policy of containment of the leaders of this movement, identifying Russia’s socio-economic system as a primary aim. It imposed unprecedented economic sanctions on our country, forcing it to launch a special military operation (SMO) in 2022, the costs of which were to stop the economic growth observed in recent years. The economic war declared by the anti-Russian coalition was designed to destabilize the socio-economic situation in the country and cause a change of political regime. However, the economic system of the Russian Federation was able to demonstrate high adaptive capacity and high stability, which is ensured by the effective and adequate to the realities anti-sanctions policy, which includes systematic and purposeful activities of economic entities to ensure the level of economic security of Russia, guaranteeing the progressive and expanded development of the country’s economy in the long term. Conclusions. The problem of Russia’s economic security in the conditions of increasing negative external impact only increases the urgency and requires increased attention from representatives of expert and scientific communities, since the subjects called to carry out the process of ensuring economic security of the country have an urgent need for scientific and methodological support of their activities and the development of recommendations for the effective solution of the tasks set before them to create conditions for further economic growth. Achievement of target indicators of security of the Russian economy is in correlation with the stability and reliability of the national economic system, the degree of activity of its economic agents and the adequacy of modern realities of the socio-economic policy pursued by the state leadership, comprehensive sovereignty of which is defined for the long term as a key vector of development of all spheres of social life of the country and a prerequisite for maintaining independence and international subjectness.

A pact of iron? China’s deepening of the Sino-Russian partnership

To characterize the bilateral partnership, this paper applies the neoclassical geopolitics approach. We first measure China’s potential, and the perception of Chinese geopolitical agents, and placed within the international distribution of capabilities. This is followed by our analytical results on Sino-Russian relations in the spheres of potential, strategic culture, and geopolitical design. The paper concludes that while there is a strategic necessity for China to strengthen the partnership, the Sino-Russian relations are unlikely transforming into a traditional military alliance, due to Beijing’s self-interest to maintain trade relations with Western countries, to avoid being tainted by Russia’s deteriorating reputation, to grasp its goal of multipolar world order, and to spread positive narratives of China as a new global leader. The Sino-Russo relations has been shifting its nature from “marriage of convenience” to “marriage who pretend to be a good couple.”

Extended spherical harmonic expansion using multipolar bases of equivalent magnetic sources on arbitrary surfaces

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to propose a compact model to represent the magnetic field outside the sources. This model provides the multipolar ordering of a spherical harmonic expansion far from the source while being valid in its close proximity.Design/methodology/approachThe authors investigate equivalent surface sources that enable to compute the field very close to any chosen surface that encloses the source. Then the authors present a method to find an appropriate initial basis and its associated inner product that allow to construct multipolar harmonic bases for these equivalent sources, where any vector of order k produces a field that decreases at least as fast as the field produced by a multipole of order k. Finally, those bases are numerically implemented to demonstrate their performances, both far from the source and in its close proximity.FindingsThe charge distribution and normal dipole distribution are well-suited to construct multipolar harmonic bases of equivalent sources. These bases can be described by as few parameters as the decreasing spherical harmonic expansion. Comparison with other numerical models shows its ability to compute the field both far from the source and close to it.Originality/valueA basis for normal dipole distribution has already been described in the literature. This paper presents a general method to construct a multipolar basis for equivalent sources and uses it to construct a basis for single-layer potential.

Realism and Multipolarity in the XXI Century. Challenges for the Balkans

The aim of this paper is to offer an insight into the phenomenon of multipolarity, a phenomenon that appeared on the global scene after the end of a unipolar moment that has lasted since the early 1990s. The paper is an attempt to present the main thesis of multipolarity as well as the correlation between multipolarity and realism as a theory in international relations. For this purpose, the most important explanatory achievements of realism have been reviewed. This was a springboard for analysing one of the world players and an active participant of the new multipolar order in the form of China, using all the realist instruments suggested, in its relations with selected countries of the Balkan region.

Grand Strategies of Russia and China: common trends and potential confrontation

The article focuses on the grand strategies of Russia and China, including both common and specific goals of two states. The current system of international relations is undergoing drastic changes as the status of the United States as a superpower and its global power are eroding. More regional poles of power appear, including Russia and China. Through the implementation of their grand strategies, they seek for their place in a changing world order. Both share the desire to form a more just, multipolar world order based on the supremacy of international law and norms, as well as advocate strengthening the role of the United Nations as the basis and guarantee of following the principles of international relations. Both countries oppose hegemony and the imposition of the norms of the “collective West” on other participants of the world order, interference in internal affairs and undermining the national security. At the same time, it is obvious that Russia and China also have differences in their geopolitical aspirations. China today is increasingly obtaining the features of a superpower, and some researchers believe that she may become one in the future. That is why there is a need to take into account the potential risks of China’s rising for Russian grand strategy and place in the world system in general. As a result, the article concludes that although the current Russian-Chinese relations are beneficial and provide broad support for both countries, it is necessary to analyse potential conflicts when building relations with a rising China.

SCO and BRICS in an emerging multipolar world order

The year 2024 will be a milestone for the development of both the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, a unique negotiating format for rapidly growing economies. This year, Kazan will host the BRICS summit, and Astana has already held the SCO summit, which was marked by the adoption of a number of important initiatives. The assessment of the results and historical significance of these summits requires a special study, in this article we will look at the state in which both BRICS and SCO approached them, what problems they are currently facing and what prospects open up to them in the context of a global transformation of the IR system. The first section examines the main stages of the formation and current trends in the development of the SCO. The author emphasizes that in addition to addressing traditional challenges, the SCO member states are actively cooperating in countering new threats, such as separatism, drug trafficking, terrorism, and Islamic extremism. In this context, the SCO countries are particularly attentive to the rapidly changing situation in Afghanistan. The author concludes that although the SCO member countries have managed to create a solid legal framework and effective mechanisms of interaction, there are contradictions and even clashes between them on a number of issues. The second section identifies the stages of formation and current trends in the development of BRICS. The author notes that in the last few years, BRICS have been actively expanding both quantitatively by including more and more new countries in the association, and qualitatively, exploring new forms and areas of cooperation. In this regard, special attention is paid to the efforts to create a BRICS currency and to cooperation within the framework of the New Development Bank. According to the author, the SCO summits in Astana and BRICS in Kazan in 2024 should bring the development of these international structures, which embody hopes for the establishment of a new, fairer world order, to a qualitatively new level.

Anisotropic magnetic and quadrupolar H−T phase diagram of CeRh2As2

The tetragonal heavy-fermion compound CeRh2As2 has intriguing low-temperature symmetry-breaking phases whose nature is unclear. The unconventional superconducting phase is complemented by other normal-state phases which presumably involve ordering of 4f electron multipoles supported by the Kramers doublets split by the tetragonal crystal electric field (CEF). The most striking aspect is the pronounced anisotropic H−T phase boundary for in-plane and out-of plane field directions. Using a localized 4f CEF model we demonstrate that its essential features can be understood as the result of competing low-field easy-plane magnetic order and field-induced quadrupolar order of xy type. We present calculations based on coupled multipole random phase approximation response function approach as well as molecular field treatment in the ordered regime. We use an analytical approach for a reduced quasiquartet model and numerical calculations for the complete CEF level scheme. We discuss the quantum critical properties as function of multipolar control parameters and explain the origin of a pronounced ac anisotropy of the H−T phase diagram. Finally, the field and temperature evolution of multipolar order parameters is derived and the high-field phase diagram is predicted. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Programmable 2D materials through shape-controlled capillary forces

In recent years, self-assembly has emerged as a powerful tool for fabricating functional materials. Since self-assembly is fundamentally determined by the particle interactions in the system, if we can gain full control over these interactions, it would open the door for creating functional materials by design. In this paper, we exploit capillary interactions between colloidal particles at liquid interfaces to create two-dimensional (2D) materials where particle interactions and self-assembly can be fully programmed using particle shape alone. Specifically, we consider colloidal particles which are polygonal plates with homogeneous surface chemistry and undulating edges as this particle geometry gives us precise and independent control over both short-range hard-core repulsions and longer-range capillary interactions. To illustrate the immense potential provided by our system for programming self-assembly, we use minimum energy calculations and Monte Carlo simulations to show that polygonal plates with different in-plane shapes (hexagons, truncated triangles, triangles, squares) and edge undulations of different multipolar order (hexapolar, octopolar, dodecapolar) can be used to create a rich variety of 2D structures, including hexagonal close-packed, honeycomb, Kagome, and quasicrystal lattices. Since the required particle shapes can be readily fabricated experimentally, we can use our colloidal system to control the entire process chain for materials design, from initial design and fabrication of the building blocks, to final assembly of the emergent 2D material.

Interests trump principles and values: India’s neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war

ABSTRACT This article contributes to the existing literature on India’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war by arguing and illustrating that India’s failure to publicly criticize Russia and its abstention on resolutions condemning Russia for violating Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in international forums highlights India’s sovereignty paradox. India is a sovereignty hawk and its neutral position is contrary to the United Nations Charter, international law and its key foreign policy tenets of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a country, non-aggression, non-interference in the domestic affairs of a country and peaceful co-existence. India has been willing to compromise on its principles because the Modi government believes that Russia can play an important role in aiding India to achieve great/leading power status because of the strategic convergence between the two countries regarding a multipolar world order and countering US hegemony, and Moscow enhancing India’s security.

A new multipolar order: combined development, state forms and new business classes

Abstract What are the key social forces and interests that underpin an emerging multipolar world? Existing research oscillates between the retreat of the liberal international order and the rise of the rest, which remains trapped in a form of geopolitical fetishism. These explanations tell us little about the kinds of forces that are driving a more fragmented and disordered global order. In this article, we suggest going beyond this by fleshing out the underlying social class relations that this new emerging order is based on. At the core of it is the emergence of a new business class—fraction of capital—that in turn sustains what we call competing regulatory geographies. The latter are internalized within state institutions and policies and have reconsolidated a combination of state and market-led industrial policy. Empirically, we also show how these dynamics unfold in key non-core states. In highlighting this particularly potent dynamic of the contemporary global order, this article calls for policy-makers to better recognize the internal contestation within states that shapes and is shaped by combined capitalist development.

Global arms exports : the formation of a new paradigm

The modern world market for arms and military equipment (WME) is experiencing a whole range of structural and dynamic changes caused by numerous global problems in the development of the world economy, the nature of competition in this market, as well as the formation of a multipolar world order. The purpose of the study was to assess possible changes in the long-term program of research on international trade in arms and military equipment, taking into account the specified triggers. As the research has shown, the political economy of global arms and military equipment exports is undergoing a significant transformation when, with the emergence of new players in the global arms and military equipment market, its qualitative characteristics and development parameters change, unconventionally affecting global demand and supply for weapons. In turn, the dynamics of defense spending have an ambiguous impact on the market under study, which can both crowd out investments in other sectors and affect the economic growth of the country and its position in global arms and military equipment exports. Finally, the global arms and military equipment market is witnessing serious and previously unknown changes in the global architecture of multilateral regulation, which determine the formation of global value chains within the framework of military-political blocs. These transformations lead to a new understanding of international cooperation between countries exporting and importing weapons and military equipment and form a new set of research problems.