Multiplier Unit Root Tests Research Articles

Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests

In this study, we aim to analyse whether Turkey's 14 major tourist source markets are converging by using monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2012. To this aim, we use the recently developed two-step Lagrange multiplier (LM) and three-step residual augmented least squares-Lagrange multiplier (RALS-LM) unit root tests that allow for two structural breaks in data. The results indicate that 10 out of 14 markets are converging, meaning that tourism policies and strategies directed at these markets are successful. Furthermore, the break points correspond to the important political, social, natural and economic events such as crisis, earthquake, disease and terrorist attack.

Convergence in energy consumption per capita among ASEAN countries

We test for convergence in energy consumption per capita among ASEAN countries over the period 1971 to 2011 using the panel KPSS stationarity test and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root test. The results for the panel stationarity and unit root tests with structural breaks find support for energy convergence in ASEAN.

Are fluctuations in energy consumption transitory or permanent? Evidence from a Fourier LM unit root test

Abstract In this study, we employ a recently introduced unit root test with a Fourier function that is capable of capturing the unknown nature of structural breaks, to reexamine the stationarity properties of energy consumption per capita of 109 countries over the period 1960–2011. The results of the Fourier Lagrange Multiplier unit root test show that the energy consumption per capita for Algeria, Australia, Benin, Bolivia, Canada, Costa Rica, Denmark, Egypt, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Ireland, Jordan, Korea Democratic Republic, Mexico, Myanmar, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Oman, Paraguay, Qatar, Singapore, Tanzania, The United States and Vietnam is stationary, indicating that energy demand management policies will not be effective on energy consumption in the long term. In addition to this, since the energy consumption in these countries does not contain a unit root, future movements in energy consumption can be predicted by employing historical behaviors.

Income convergence dynamics in ASEAN and SAARC blocs

This paper examines whether convergence of real income exists among the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries for the period covering 1970–2009. Univariate Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with structural break(s) are employed to check for the incidence of stochastic convergence, which is necessary for conditional convergence as proposed in the neoclassical model. We further examine the presence of β-convergence, which is considered as the sufficient requirement for conditional convergence. Test results suggest convergence among ASEAN members, with the absence of convergence in SAARC member countries.

Are fluctuations in coal consumption per capita temporary? Evidence from developed and developing economies

Abstract This paper investigates the unit root properties of coal consumption per capita for the 47 developed and developing countries for 1965–2010 period. To examine the stationary properties of coal consumption per capita, Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root test with one break and two breaks Crash model has been utilized. According to empirical results, the coal consumption is stationary in almost all the countries analyzed. Thus, if the coal consumption is mean (or trend) reverting, then it follows that the series will return to its mean value (or trend path) and it might be possible to forecast future movements in the coal consumption based on past behaviors of the series. For the policy makers, it is not necessary to pay attention to coal consumption excepting for Indian and Italian. However, for the researchers it is important to take into account the stationarity property of coal consumption and also structural breaks (should be modeled) in their future studies.

Convergence of per capita sulphur dioxide emissions across US states

This study examines the stochastic conditional convergence of sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions using the Residual Augmented Least Squares–Lagrange Multiplier (RALS–LM) unit root test with structural breaks. This procedure allows the data to account for trend breaks and nonnormal errors that have been ignored or deemphasized in previous studies. The study finds that per capita sulphur dioxide emissions exhibits stochastic conditional convergence across US states.

Will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with structural breaks

This paper examines whether initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption are likely to be effective by applying univariate and panel Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests to hydroelectricity consumption in 55 countries over the period 1965–2011. We find that for the panel, as well as about four-fifths of individual countries, that hydroelectricity consumption is stationary. This result implies that shocks to hydroelectricity consumption in most countries will only result in temporary deviations from the long-run growth path. An important consequence of this finding is that initiatives designed to have permanent positive effects on hydroelectricity consumption, such as large-scale dam construction, are unlikely to be effective in increasing the share of hydroelectricity, relative to consumption of fossil fuels.

Is Per Capita Electricity Consumption Non-stationary? A Long-span Study for Turkey

This article examines the stationary properties of per capita electricity consumption in which the endogenously determined break points are incorporated in Turkey by using annual data over 1923–2008. We utilize a Lagrange multiplier unit root test that endogenously determines structural breaks in level and/or trend. Our empirical findings provide significant evidence that per capita electricity consumption is stationary.

Convergence Analysis of Oil and Diesel Prices for Industries and Households in the European Region

The European Union (EU) aims at increasing the competitiveness in EU markets via single prices for each commodity and service. Energy products are the basic necessary commodities for both production and consumption. This article examines light fuel oil and automotive diesel prices in some EU countries, among other energy prices, to reveal if traditional EU oil and diesel prices move towards an equilibrium single price. Employing panel data sets for industry oil price, household oil price, industry diesel price and household diesel price, this study reveals convergence in prices for panels through Lagrange Multiplier unit root tests with structural breaks. On the other hand, it also observed non-convergence for some individual EU members from the related panels. The speed of adjustment is another important issue together with convergence by itself. To this end, this work observes the half-lives of deviations of prices from their equilibrium levels as well and concludes that oil prices converge faster than diesel prices do.

Do Malaysian house prices follow a random walk? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks

In this article we apply univariate and panel Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and twostructural breaks proposed by Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) and Im et al. (2005) to examine housing prices for five different housing price indices (all housing, detached housing, semi-detached housing, terrace housing and high-rise housing) in 14 states of Malaysia to test whether housing prices exhibit a random walk. Our main finding from the univariate LM unit root tests is that for the vast majority of states housing prices follow a stationary process about a segmented trend. The results of the panel LM unit root tests provide overwhelming evidence that house prices are segmented trend reverting.

Do Balkan economies catch up with EU? New evidence from panel unit root analysis

This paper explores empirically the issue of income convergence for the Balkans over the period 1994–2011 and the investigation relies on income differentials from both the averages of the European Union’s-15 (EU-15) and the European Union’s-24 (EU-24) as well as within the Balkan group. The adopted methodology deploys the non stationary panel unit root framework to cope with the problem of limited sample providing more reliable insight and, in particular, the analysis uses the univariate and panel minimum Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests, suggested by Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) and Im et al. (2005), that accounts for one and two endogenously determined structural breaks. The overall evidence is in favor of catching up with the EU benchmark cases as well as in favor of convergence within the Balkan area. However, disparities for some countries are confirmed.

Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect in Malaysia

This paper applies univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to the ratio of the regional to national house price to examine the ripple effect for five different housing price indices (aggregate housing, detached housing, semi-detached housing, terrace housing and high-rise housing) across 14 regional locations in Malaysia. Segmentation is restricted to a small group of states across most housing types for which there is no long-run relationship with the Malaysian average. When all housing types are taken together, evidence of a ripple effect is generally found from the most developed states to the less developed states of Malaysia. While overall rates of conversion to the long-run equilibrium are consistent with a low level of persistence, there is some evidence of regional clusters based on similar speeds of adjustment in different parts of the country.

Structural changes and regional disparity in China's inflation: a revisit

The study re-examined the time series properties and regional disparities in Chinese inflation by extending the work of Chong, Zhang, and Feng (2011). For this purpose we employed the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root test with one structural break and two structural breaks suggested by Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) and a recently developed ADF type unit root test with two structural breaks of Narayan and Popp (2010). We found that national, urban and rural series of the overall inflation series, clothing, and food, national series of education and residence and the rural series of residence and education are stationary. We also found regional disparity in Chinese inflation, but the disparities existed only in education inflation series.

Will Obama's economic stimulus package be effective? Evidence from the misery index

We apply Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to the US misery index. The results indicate that aggregate demand shocks, such as the economic stimulus package passed by the Congress in 2009, will only have a temporary effect on the long-run growth path of the misery index. The implication is that the benefits of the Obama package in terms of initiating recovery from the Global Financial Crisis will only be transitory.

Is there Really Divergence Across Turkish Provinces? Evidence From the Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Tests

Using data on per capita income among 67 provinces in Turkey over the period 1975–2001, regional stochastic convergence is evaluated. This study employees the LM unit root test to endogenously determine the number and location of structural breaks for each province. On the contrary, convergence literature on Turkish provinces, both univariate and panel LM tests provide strong evidence for convergence except for the provinces of Bitlis and Erzurum when structural breaks are taken into account. Our empirical results are in accordance with the neoclassical model.

Purchasing Power Parity In Mena Revisited: Empirical Evidence in the Presence of Endogenously Determined Break Points

This paper re-examines the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis in which the endogenously determined break points are incorporated in 13 major MENA countries by using official and black market exchange rates data over 1970-1998. We utilize Lagrange Multiplier unit root test that endogenously determines structural breaks in level. We find evidence of PPP for eight of the thirteen countries at the 10% level or better. We also construct the half lives to investigate the persistence of deviations from PPP. The point estimates of the half lives for both OREX and BMREX in the seven countries are lower than range of the consensus of 3-5 years in the literature.

LM threshold unit root tests

We build on the threshold unit root tests in Enders and Granger (1998) and develop tests based on Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests. The asymptotic properties are derived and finite sample properties are examined in simulations.

Reassessment of the finance-growth nexus in the presence of structural breaks

This article investigates empirically the causality between financial development and economic growth for 11 sample countries in a structural break framework via minimum Lagrange multiplier unit-root test and Hsiao's causality test. We find most of the series can be more accurately characterized as a segmented trend stationary process around structural breaks as opposed to a stochastic unit-root process, which has important implications for policy-makers to formulate long-term development strategy and short-run stabilization policies as well as for academics to carry out cointegration analysis. Besides, we find different causality patterns in sample countries, which depart from those found in the existing literature, highlighting that it might be unreliable to apply only conventional unit-root test and inappropriate to take the first difference of the series to achieve stationarity, all of which might result in model misspecification. Our analysis also provides some evidence on the source of the mixed results on finance-growth nexus as they may differ due to the length of data span and the different econometric procedure. ‘One of the most important problems in the field of finance … is the effect that financial structure and development have on economic growth’. Goldsmith (1969, p. 390)

Asian Financial Crisis, Avian Flu and Terrorist Threats: Are Shocks to Malaysian Tourist Arrivals Permanent or Transitory?

International visitor arrivals from Malaysia's 10 major source markets are examined using Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain whether shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The LM unit root test with one break is able to reject the unit root null for between 60% of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and 90% of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and slope. The LM unit root test with two breaks is able to reject the unit root null for all source markets, irrespective of how the break is specified. This result suggests that the effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Malaysia from its major markets are only transitory and that Malaysia's tourist sector is sustainable in the long run. Although the effects of shocks are not permanent, we do find that following shocks the growth in tourist arrivals from Malaysia's source markets has generally slowed. This result suggests there is a need to reduce the negative effects of slower growth in the recovery phase.

‘I’ve been to Bali too’ (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?

International visitor arrivals to Bali are examined using univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The univariate LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in international visitor arrivals to Bali. However, the panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks applied to a panel of Bali's 11 major source markets reject the null and support the alternative hypothesis of a joint trend-stationary series with transitory shocks. This result suggests that, the effects of the recent terrorist acts on Bali on the growth path of tourist arrivals from major markets are only transitory and that as a consequence Bali's tourism sector is sustainable in the long run.