Multiple Stressor Scenarios Research Articles

Putting the Asymmetric Response Concept to the test: Modeling multiple stressor exposure and release in a stream food web

Communities in stream ecosystems often respond asymmetrically to increase and release of stressors, as indicated by slow and incomplete recovery. The Asymmetric Response Concept (ARC) posits that this is due to a shift in the relative importance of three mechanisms: tolerance, dispersal, and biotic interactions. In complex natural communities, these mechanisms may produce alternative outcomes through poorly understood indirect effects. To understand how the three mechanisms respond to different temporal stressor scenarios, we studied multiple scenarios using a stream food web model. We asked the following questions: Do groups of species decline as expected on the basis of individual tolerance rankings derived from laboratory experiments when they are embedded in a complex dynamic food web? Does the response of ecosystem function match that of communities? To address these questions, we aggregated data on individual tolerances at the level of functional groups and studied how single and multiple stressors affect food web dynamics and nutrient cycling. Multiple stressor scenarios involved different intensities of salt and temperature increase. Functional groups exhibited a different relative tolerance ranking between the laboratory and dynamic food web contexts. Salt as a single stressor had only minor and transient effects at low level but led to the loss of one or more functional groups at high level. In contrast, high temperature, alone or in combination with salt, caused the loss of functional groups at all tested levels. Patterns often differed between the response of communities and ecosystem function. We discuss our findings with respect to the ARC.

Macroinvertebrate communities respond strongly but non-specifically to a toxicity gradient derived by effect-based methods

Chemical pollution is one of the most important threats to freshwater ecosystems. The plethora of potentially occurring chemicals and their effects in complex mixtures challenge standard monitoring methods. Effect-based methods (EBMs) are proposed as complementary tools for the assessment of chemical pollution and toxic effects. To investigate the effects of chemical pollution, the ecological relevance of EBMs and the potential of macroinvertebrates as toxicity-specific bioindicators, ecological and ecotoxicological data were linked. Baseline toxicity, mutagenicity, dioxin-like and estrogenic activity of water and sediment samples from 30 river sites in central Germany were quantified with four in vitro bioassays. The responses of macroinvertebrate communities at these sites were assessed by calculating 16 taxonomic and functional metrics and by investigating changes in the taxonomic and trait composition. Principal component analysis revealed an increase in toxicity along a joint gradient of chemicals with different modes of action. This toxicity gradient was associated with a decrease in biodiversity and ecological quality, as well as significant changes in taxonomic and functional composition. The strength of the effects suggested a strong impact of chemical pollution and underlined the suitability of EBMs in detecting ecological relevant effects. However, the metrics, taxa, and traits associated with vulnerability or tolerance to toxicity were found to also respond to other stressors in previous studies and thus may have only a low potential as toxicity-specific bioindicators. Because macroinvertebrates respond integratively to all present stressors, linking both ecological and environmental monitoring is necessary to investigate the overall effects but also isolate individual stressors. EBMs have a high potential to separate the toxicity of chemical mixtures from other stressors in a multiple stressor scenario, as well as identifying the presence of chemical groups with specific modes of action.

Tipping point arises earlier under a multiple-stressor scenario

Anthropogenic impacts and global changes have profound implications for natural ecosystems and may lead to their modification, degradation or collapse. Increases in the intensity of single stressors may create abrupt shifts in biotic responses (i.e. thresholds). The effects of multiple interacting stressors may create non-additive responses, known as synergistic or antagonistic interactions. Here we combine both concepts—ecological thresholds and interactions between multiple stressors—to understand the effects of multiple interacting stressors along environmental gradients, and how this can affect the occurrence of thresholds. Using an experimental approach to investigate the effect of nutrient enrichment and saltwater intrusion on mortality in the zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha, we show that multiple stressors can create thresholds at lower levels of an environmental gradient. Our results reveal a major shortcoming in how we currently investigate these two ecological concepts, as considering them separately may be causing underestimation of thresholds and stressor-interaction impacts.

Parasites and pollutants: effects of multiple stressors on aquatic organisms.

Parasites can affect their hosts in various ways, and this implies that parasites may act as additional biotic stressors in a multiple-stressor scenario, resembling conditions often found in the field if, for example, pollutants and parasites occur simultaneously. Therefore, parasites represent important modulators of host reactions in ecotoxicological studies when measuring the response of organisms to stressors such as pollutants. In the present article, we introduce the most important groups of parasites occurring in organisms commonly used in ecotoxicological studies ranging from laboratory to field investigations. After briefly explaining their life cycles, we focus on parasite stages affecting selected ecotoxicologically relevant target species belonging to crustaceans, molluscs, and fish. We included ecotoxicological studies that consider the combination of effects of parasites and pollutants on the respective model organism with respect to aquatic host-parasite systems. We show that parasites from different taxonomic groups (e.g. Microsporidia, Monogenea, Trematoda, Cestoda, Acanthocephala, Nematoda) clearly modulate the response to stressors in their hosts. The combined effects of environmental stressors and parasites can range from additive, antagonistic to synergistic. This review points to potential drawbacks of ecotoxicological tests if parasite infections of test organisms, especially from the field, remain undetected and unaddressed. If these parasites are not detected and quantified, their physiological effects on the host cannot be separated from the ecotoxicological effects. This may render this type of ecotoxicological test erroneous. In laboratory tests, for example to determine effect or lethal concentrations, the presence of a parasite can also have a direct effect on the concentrations to be determined and thus, on the subsequently determined security levels such as predicted no effect concentrations.

Dietary exposure to nTiO2 reduces byssus performance of mussels under ocean warming

Nano‑titanium dioxide (nTiO2) is a widely used nanomaterial posing potential ecological risk for marine ecosystems that might be enhanced by elevated temperatures such as expected during climate change. nTiO2 may affect benthic filter feeders like mussels through waterborne exposures and via food chain due to the adsorption on/in algae. Mussel byssus are proteinaceous fibers secreted by byssal glands of the mussels for attachment. Byssus production and mechanical properties are sensitive to environmental stressors but the combined effects of warming and nTiO2 on byssus performance of mussels are unclear hampering our understanding of the predation and dislodgement risk of mussels under the multiple stressor scenarios. We explored the effects of a short-term (14-day) single and combined exposures to warming (28 °C) and 100 μg L−1 nTiO2 (including food co-exposure) on the byssus performance of the thick shell mussel Mytilus coruscus. The mechanical strength (measured as the breaking force) of the byssal threads was impaired by warming and nTiO2 (including food co-exposure), but the number and length of the byssal threads were increased. The mRNA expression levels of mussel foot proteins (mfp-3, mfp-5) and pre-collagens (preCOL-D, preCOL-P, preCOL-NG) were up-regulated to varying degrees, with the strongest effects induced by warming. This indicates that the physiological and molecular mechanisms of byssus secretion are plastic. However, downregulation of the mRNA expression of preCOL-D and preCOL-P under the combined warming and nTiO2 exposures indicate the limits of these plasticity mechanisms and suggest that the attachment ability and survival of the mussels may be impaired if the pollution or temperature conditions further deteriorate.

Fish-Kills in the Urban Stretch of the Tiber River After a Flash-Storm: Investigative Monitoring with Effect-Based Methods, Targeted Chemical Analyses, and Fish Assemblage Examinations

In 2020 and 2021, fish-kills events occurred in the Tiber river in the city of Rome. These events, which caused the death of thousands of fish of different species (e.g., Barbus spp., Cyprinus carpio, Squalius spp.), were preceded the days before by severe flash-storms. Heavy rains in urban areas in recent years are linked to climate change and fish-kills events. With the aim to investigate the causes of these events, effect-based methods (EBMs) and targeted chemical analyses have been performed on a specific site of river Tiber in the center of the city. Additionally, examination and classification of the floating dead fishes have been performed. The chemical analysis performed on several groups of contaminants showed the presence of some pharmaceuticals, insecticides, and PFAS at up to ng/L. Results with the Fish Embryo Toxicity (FET) test confirmed lethal and sub-lethal effects, while acute effects were not detected with the Daphnia magna acute test. The fish-kills events probably can be generated by several factors as a consequence of an increasing human anthropization of the area with the contribution of different stressors together with chemical releases and emissions. This study shows that in multiple stressor scenarios characterized by heavy rainfall, droughts, and strong anthropogenic pressures, the application of EBMs, chemical analysis, and fish assemblage examinations can represent a useful support in the investigation of the causes of extensive fish-kills events.

Copper exposure improves the upper thermal tolerance in a sex-specific manner, irrespective of fish thermal history.

Ectotherms can respond to climate change via evolutionary adaptation, usually resulting in an increase of their upper thermal tolerance. But whether such adaptation influences the phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance when encountering further environmental stressors is not clear yet. This is crucial to understand because organisms experience multiple stressors, besides warming climate, in their natural environment and pollution is one of those. Here, we studied the phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance in three-spined stickleback populations inhabiting spatially replicated thermally polluted and pristine areas before and after exposing them to a sublethal concentration of copper for one week. We found that the upper thermal tolerance and its phenotypic plasticity after copper exposure did not depend on the thermal history of fish, suggesting that five decades of thermal pollution did not result in evolutionary adaptation to thermal tolerance. The upper thermal tolerance of fish was, on the other hand, increased by ∼ 1.5°C after 1-week copper exposure in a sex-specific manner, with males having higher plasticity. To our knowledge this is the first study that shows an improvement of the upper thermal tolerance as a result of metal exposure. The results suggest that three-spined sticklebacks are having high plasticity and they are capable of surviving in a multiple-stressor scenario in the wild and that male sticklebacks seem more resilient to fluctuating environmental conditions than female.

Parasite infection influences the biomarker response and locomotor activity of Gammarus fossarum exposed to conventionally-treated wastewater

Modern wastewater treatment plants cannot completely remove pollutants. Often, effluents entering the aquatic environment still contain micropollutants such as pharmaceuticals or pesticides, which may impose adverse effects on aquatic biota. At the same time, a large proportion of free-living aquatic species are known to be infected with parasites, which raises the question of interactions between environmental stressors (such as micropollutants) and parasite infection. We chose the freshwater amphipod Gammarus fossarum (Koch, 1835) as a test organism to investigate potential pollutant-parasite interactions. This gammarid is frequently used in ecotoxicological tests and is also commonly infected with larvae of the acanthocephalan parasite species Polymorphus minutus (Zeder, 1800) Lühe, 1911. We exposed infected and uninfected specimens of G. fossarum to conventionally-treated wastewater and river water in a 22-day flow channel experiment. The test organisms’ response was measured as mortality rates, concentrations or activities of five biomarkers, and overall locomotor activity. No significant differences were found between mortality rates of different exposure conditions. Contrastingly, three biomarkers (phenoloxidase activity, glycogen, and lipid concentrations) showed a significant increase in infected gammarids, while the effect of the water type was insignificant. Infected gammarids also showed a significantly higher locomotor activity in both water types. Our results suggest that the response of G. fossarum during the exposure experiments was mainly driven by parasite infection. This implies that parasites may act as additional biotic stressors in multiple stressor scenarios, and therefore, might play an important role when measuring the response of organisms to chemical stressors. Future ecotoxicological studies and assessments thus should consider parasite infection as an additional test parameter.

Different ecological histories of sea urchins acclimated to reduced pH influence offspring response to multiple stressors

End-of-the-century predictions on carbon dioxide (CO2) driven ocean acidification and the continuous leakage of pesticides from inland to coastal areas are of concern for potential negative effects on marine species' early life stages which are the most vulnerable to environmental changes. Variations in seawater chemistry related to human activities may interfere with the normal development from embryo to juvenile/adult stage. However, transgenerational studies suggest that the parental generation can influence the offspring phenotype, and thus their performances, based on the environment experienced. Here we compared the transgenerational responses to a multiple stressor scenario in sea urchins (Paracentrotus lividus) that experienced different environments since their settlement: i.e., animals from a highly variable environment, such as the Venice lagoon, versus animals from a coastal area with prevailing oligotrophic conditions in the Northern Adriatic Sea. After long-term maintenance (2 and 6 months) of adult sea urchins at natural and −0.4 units reduced pH, the F1 generations were obtained. Embryos were reared under four experimental conditions: natural and −0.4 pH both in the absence and in the presence of an emerging contaminants’ mixture (glyphosate and aminomethylphosphonic acid at environmentally relevant concentrations, 100 μg/L). A significant detrimental effect of both the parental and the filial pH was highlighted, affecting embryo development and growth. Nonetheless, sea urchins from both sites were able to cope with ocean acidification. The 6-months F1 response was better than that of the 2-months F1. Conversely, the F1 response of the sea urchins maintained at natural conditions did not change sensibly after more prolonged parental exposure. An additive but mild negative effect of the mixture was observed, mostly in lagoon offspring. Results suggest that long-term exposure to reduced pH leads to transgenerational acclimation but does not affect susceptibility to the tested pollutants.

Multiple-stressor exposure of aquatic food webs: Nitrate and warming modulate the effect of pesticides

Shallow lakes provide essential ecological and environmental services but are exposed to multiple stressors, including agricultural runoff (ARO) and climate warming, which may act on different target receptors disrupting their normal functioning. We performed a microcosm experiment to determine the individual and combined effects of three stressors—pesticides, nitrate and climate warming—on two trophic levels representative of communities found in shallow lakes. We used three submerged macrophyte species (Myriophyllum spicatum, Potamogeton perfoliatus, Elodea nuttallii), eight benthic or pelagic microalgal species and three primary consumer species (Daphnia magna, Lymnaea stagnalis, Dreissena polymorpha) with different feeding preferences for benthic and pelagic primary producers. Eight different treatments consisted of a control, only nitrate, a pesticide cocktail, and a combination of nitrate and pesticides representing ARO, each replicated at ambient temperature and +3.5°C, mimicking climate warming. Pesticides negatively affected all functional groups except phytoplankton, which increased. Warming and nitrate modified these effects. Strong but opposite pesticide and warming effects on Myriophyllum drove the response of the total macrophyte biomass. Nitrate significantly suppressed Myriophyllum final biomass, but not overall macrophyte and microalgal biomass. Nitrate and pesticides in combination caused a macrophyte decline, and the system tipped towards phytoplankton dominance. Strong synergistic or even reversed stressor interaction effects were observed for macrophytes or periphyton. We emphasize the need for more complex community- and ecosystem-level studies incorporating multiple stressor scenarios to define safe operating spaces.

Bioenergetics in environmental adaptation and stress tolerance of aquatic ectotherms: linking physiology and ecology in a multi-stressor landscape.

Energy metabolism (encompassing energy assimilation, conversion and utilization) plays a central role in all life processes and serves as a link between the organismal physiology, behavior and ecology. Metabolic rates define the physiological and life-history performance of an organism, have direct implications for Darwinian fitness, and affect ecologically relevant traits such as the trophic relationships, productivity and ecosystem engineering functions. Natural environmental variability and anthropogenic changes expose aquatic ectotherms to multiple stressors that can strongly affect their energy metabolism and thereby modify the energy fluxes within an organism and in the ecosystem. This Review focuses on the role of bioenergetic disturbances and metabolic adjustments in responses to multiple stressors (especially the general cellular stress response), provides examples of the effects of multiple stressors on energy intake, assimilation, conversion and expenditure, and discusses the conceptual and quantitative approaches to identify and mechanistically explain the energy trade-offs in multiple stressor scenarios, and link the cellular and organismal bioenergetics with fitness, productivity and/or ecological functions of aquatic ectotherms.

Variation on the standing stock of Gracilaria sp. in a temperate estuary under single-stressor and multiple-stressor climate change scenarios

The seaweed Gracilaria is not only relevant to the functioning of coastal ecosystems as it also has an important economic value particularly linked to agar extraction. Climate change is expected to affect the production of marine macrophytes and hence their related processes. Baring this in mind, our aim was to develop a numerical model capable of predicting variations on Gracilaria sp. growth and standing stock under climate change scenarios, including temperature rise (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), hypersalinity and enhanced nitrogen (N) runoff. Single- and multiple-stressor simulations were run to check for possible interactions among different stressors and the resulting impacts on Gracilaria sp. growth. Results indicate that the effects of isolated and combined stressors on Gracilaria sp. standing stock differ. The tested temperature rise scenarios induced decreases of 29% (RCP2.6) and 57% (RCP8.5) on the red algae biomass, with more severe effects under the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5), which were related to enhanced algal respiration, decomposition and grazing pressure. Seasonal hypersalinity caused a reduction of 35% on the net productivity of Gracilaria sp., while the simulated N runoff increase (25%) had no effect on the annual biomass of Gracilaria sp. Contrarily to the moderate effects of single-stressors, multiple-stressor scenarios had severe impacts on Gracilaria sp. annual standing stock with reductions >90%, pointing out to the occurrence of synergistic effects of temperature and salinity on the production of Gracilaria sp.Overall, these results indicate that within the next decades, the interaction of different environmental stressors will pose significant constraints to the production of Gracilaria sp. on natural systems with subsequent effects to therein associated ecological services.

Ecotoxicological responses of a reef calcifier exposed to copper, acidification and warming: A multiple biomarker approach

Multiple global and local stressors threat coral reefs worldwide, and symbiont-bearing foraminifera are bioindicators of reef health. The aim of this study was to investigate single and combined effects of copper (Cu) and climate change related stressors (ocean acidification and warming) on a symbiont-bearing foraminifer by means of an integrated biomarker analysis. Using a mesocosm approach, Amphistegina gibbosa were exposed for 25 days to acidification, warming and/or Cu contamination on a full orthogonal design (two levels each factor). Cu was the main factor increasing bleaching and respiration rates. Warming was the main cause of mortality and reduced growth. Calcification related enzymes were inhibited in response to Cu exposure and, in general, the inhibition was stronger under climate change. Multiple biological endpoints responded to realistic exposure scenarios in different ways, but evidenced general stress posed by climate change combined with Cu. These biological responses drove the high values found for the ‘stress index’ IBR (Integrated Biomarker Response) – indicating general organismal health impairment under the multiple stressor scenario. Our results provide insights for coral reef management by detecting potential monitoring tools. The ecotoxicological responses indicated that Cu reduces the tolerance of foraminifera to climate change (acidification + warming). Once the endpoints analysed have a high ecological relevance, and that responses were evaluated on a classical reef bioindicator species, these results highlight the high risk of climate change and metal pollution co-exposure to coral reefs. Integrated responses allowed a better effects comprehension and are pointed as a promising tool to monitor pollution effects on a changing ocean.

Anthropogenic stressors affect fungal more than bacterial communities in decaying leaf litter: A stream mesocosm experiment.

Despite the progress made in environmental microbiology techniques and knowledge, the succession and functional changes of the microbial community under multiple stressors are still poorly understood. This is a substantial knowledge gap as microbial communities regulate the biogeochemistry of stream ecosystems. Our study assessed the structural and temporal changes in stream fungal and bacterial communities associated with decomposing leaf litter under a multiple-stressor scenario. We conducted a fully crossed 4-factor experiment in 64 flow-through mesocosms fed by a pristine montane stream (21 days of colonisation, 21 days of manipulations) and investigated the effects of nutrient enrichment, flow velocity reduction and sedimentation after 2 and 3 weeks of stressor exposure. We used high-throughput sequencing and metabarcoding techniques (16S and 18S rRNA genes) to identify changes in microbial community composition. Our results indicate that (1) shifts in relative abundances of the pre-existing terrestrial microbial community, rather than changes in community identity, drove the observed responses to stressors; (2) changes in relative abundances within the microbial community paralleled decomposition rate patterns with time; (3) both fungal and bacterial communities had a certain resistance to stressors, as indicated by relatively minor changes in alpha diversity or multivariate community structure; (4) overall, stressor interactions were more common than stressor main effects when affecting microbial diversity metrics or abundant individual genera; and (5) stressor effects on microbes often changed from 2 weeks to 3 weeks of stressor exposure, with several response patterns being reversed. Our study suggests that future research should focus more on understanding the temporal dynamics of fungal and bacterial communities and how they relate to ecosystem processes to advance our understanding of the mechanisms associated with multiple-stressor interactions.

Qualifying the effects of single and multiple stressors on the food web structure of Dutch drainage ditches using a literature review and conceptual models

In September 2017, a workshop was held at Wageningen University and Research to determine the current state of knowledge of multiple stressor effects on aquatic ecosystems and to assess how to improve prediction of these effects. We developed a theoretical framework that integrates species-level responses to stressors to predict how these effects propagate through higher levels of biological organisation. Here, we present the application of the framework for drainage ditch ecosystems in the Netherlands. We used food webs to assess single and multiple stressor effects of common stressors on ditch communities. We reviewed the literature for the effects of targeted stressors (nutrients, pesticides, dredging and mowing, salinization, and siltation) on each functional group present in the food web and qualitatively assessed the relative sensitivity of groups. Using this information, we created a stressor-response matrix of positive and negative direct effects of each stressor-functional group combination. Fungicides, salinization, and sedimentation were identified as particularly detrimental to most groups, although destructive management practices, such as dredging with almost complete community removal, would take precedence depending on frequency. Using the stressor-response matrix we built, first, a series of conceptual null models of single stressor effects on food web structure and, second, a series of additive null models to illustrate potential paired-stressor effects. We compared these additive null models with published studies of the same pairs of combined single stressors to explore more complex interactions. Our approach serves as a first-step to considering multiple stressor scenarios in systems that are understudied or data-poor and as a baseline from which more complex models that include indirect effects and quantitative data may be developed. We make specific suggestions for appropriate management strategies that could be taken to support the biodiversity of these systems for individual stressors and their combined impacts.

Antagonistic effects of multiple stressors on macroinvertebrate biomass from a temperate estuary (Minho estuary, NW Iberian Peninsula)

An ecosystem model of the Minho estuary (NW coast of Iberian Peninsula) was implemented in AQUATOX 3.1 (US-EPA) to check whether the effects of temperature rise, dry years, rainy years and river flow decrease acting isolated (single stressor) or combined (multiple stressor) would induce the same type of response on macroinvertebrate biomass variation and to identify the type of stressor interactions. The model was parameterised with site-specific and species-specific data and accounts for a food web with primary producers, benthic invertebrates, fish and detritus, with 12 biotic groups, 4 groups of detritus and 12 forcing functions.Results showed that macroinvertebrate biomass responded differently to single stressor and multiple stressor scenarios and interactions among the tested stressors were antagonistic. During medium term simulations (∼6 years), the biomass of macroinvertebrate communities from the Minho estuary was maintained or slightly increased in single scenarios of temperature rise but the occurrence of antagonistic interactions between temperature rise, river flow decrease, dry years and rainy years counteracted the increasing tendency in multiple stressor scenarios.Overall, the present results highlight the strong dependence of the system’s biomass and production on hydrodynamics and contribute to increase knowledge on the mechanistic processes behind this. Thus, we recommend an ecosystem-based management of the Minho River basin supported by models such as the present one.

A long-term field study on the effects of dietary exposure of clothianidin to varroosis-weakened honey bee colonies

Clothianidin is a commonly used systemic insecticide in seed treatments. Residues of clothianidin can occur in nectar and pollen as a result of within-plant-translocation. Foraging bees can collect contaminated nectar or pollen. Concerns have been brought forward that exposure to pesticide residues might affect colonies especially if they are weakened by varroosis. However, there are few scientific studies investigating such multiple-stressor scenarios in the context of the entire colony. To close this gapa field trial with 24 colonies was set up. The study design comprised four groups of six colonies each fed with uncontaminated sugar syrup ('C0'), or syrup spiked with 10 μg L−1 clothianidin ('C10'), 50 μg L−1 clothianidin ('C50') or 200 μg L−1 clothianidin ('C200'). C10 represented a residue concentration that may exceptionally occur and therefore a worst-case scenario, the higher dietary concentrations exceed and do not reflect fieldrealistic levels. A substantial load of 8 mites of Varroa destructor per ten gram bees in autumn was adjusted. The colonies were followed up for 328 days. The amount of brood and the strength of each colony were regularly assessed. Colony health, bee mortality, overwintering success, hive weights, and levels of in-hive residues were determined. Varroosis turned out to be the significant key factor for the endpoint colony strength. Clothianidin did not have a statistically significant impact on C0, C10 and C50 colonies. No statistical evidence was found for an interaction between varroosis andexposure to clothianidin.

Multiple stressors facilitate the spread of a non‐indigenous bivalve in the Mediterranean Sea

AbstractAimThe introduction of non‐indigenous species (NIS) via man‐made corridors connecting previously disparate oceanic regions is increasing globally. However, the environmental and anthropogenic factors facilitating invasion dynamics and their interactions are still largely unknown. This study compiles and inputs available data for the NIS bivalve Brachidontes pharaonis across the invaded biogeographic range in the Mediterranean basin into a species distribution model to predict future spread under a range of marine scenarios.LocationMediterranean Sea.MethodsA systematic review produced the largest presence database ever assembled to inform the selection of biological, chemical and physical factors linked to the spread of B. pharaonis through the Suez Canal. We carried out a sensitivity analysis to simulate current and future trophic and salinity scenarios. A species distribution model was run to determine key drivers of invasion, quantify interactive impacts arising from a range of trophic states, salinity conditions and climatic scenarios and forecast future trajectories for the spread of NIS into new regions under multiple‐parameter scenarios (based on the main factors identified from the systematic review).ResultsImpacts on invasion trajectory arising from climate change and interactions with increasing salinity from the new opening of the canal were the primary drivers of expansion across the basin, the effects of which were further enhanced by eutrophication. Predictions of the current distribution were most accurate when multiple stressors were used to drive the model. A habitat suitability index developed at a subcontinental scale from model outputs identified novel favourable conditions for future colonization at specific locations under 2030 and 2050 climatic scenarios.Main conclusionsFuture expansion of B. pharaonis will be enhanced by climate‐facilitated increased sea temperature, interacting with increasing pressures from salinity and eutrophication. The spatially explicit risk output maps of invasions represent a powerful visual product for use in communication of the spread of NIS and decision‐support tools for scientists and policymakers. The suggested approach, the observed distribution pattern and driving processes can be applied to other NIS species and regions by providing novel forecasts of species occurrences under future multiple stressor scenarios and the location of suitable recipient habitats with respect to anthropogenic and environmental parameters.

Rising tides, cumulative impacts and cascading changes to estuarine ecosystem functions

In coastal ecosystems, climate change affects multiple environmental factors, yet most predictive models are based on simple cause-and-effect relationships. Multiple stressor scenarios are difficult to predict because they can create a ripple effect through networked ecosystem functions. Estuarine ecosystem function relies on an interconnected network of physical and biological processes. Estuarine habitats play critical roles in service provision and represent global hotspots for organic matter processing, nutrient cycling and primary production. Within these systems, we predicted functional changes in the impacts of land-based stressors, mediated by changing light climate and sediment permeability. Our in-situ field experiment manipulated sea level, nutrient supply, and mud content. We used these stressors to determine how interacting environmental stressors influence ecosystem function and compared results with data collected along elevation gradients to substitute space for time. We show non-linear, multi-stressor effects deconstruct networks governing ecosystem function. Sea level rise altered nutrient processing and impacted broader estuarine services ameliorating nutrient and sediment pollution. Our experiment demonstrates how the relationships between nutrient processing and biological/physical controls degrade with environmental stress. Our results emphasise the importance of moving beyond simple physically-forced relationships to assess consequences of climate change in the context of ecosystem interactions and multiple stressors.

Sequential exposure to low levels of pesticides and temperature stress increase toxicological sensitivity of crustaceans

Frequent pesticide-related impacts on ecosystems at concentrations considered environmentally safe indicate that the current risk assessment framework for registration of pesticides is not protective enough. Causes may include difficulties in assessing the effects of sequential pesticide pulses and their interaction with environmental stressors. By contrast to such realistic scenarios, risk assessment for registration of pesticides is typically based on tests of a single exposure period under benign laboratory conditions. Here, we investigated the toxicological sensitivity of Gammarus pulex, an ecologically relevant crustacean, from uncontaminated control streams and pesticide-contaminated agricultural streams by exposing them to pesticide contamination in the laboratory. Individuals from contaminated streams were 2.7-fold more sensitive to pesticide exposure than individuals from the reference streams. We revealed that this increase in sensitivity was the result of a synergistic interaction of sequential pesticide exposure and temperature stress. Such multiple stressor scenarios are typical for agricultural streams. We conclude that the interactive effects of sequential toxicant exposure and additional environmental stressors need to be considered in a realistic risk assessment framework.