Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis Tool Research Articles

Coupling crop simulation modelling and multi-criteria decision aid for ranking the sustainability of cropping sequences

IntroductionCrop sequences are important to make efficient use of natural resources and ensure food security. Climate change affects the sustainability of crops in cropping sequence. The application of crop sequence modelling to evaluate the sustainability of cropping sequences under projected climate is a less explored area.MethodsThe present work evaluated the impact of projected climate on six cropping sequences viz., rice-mustard-groundnut, rice-lentil-groundnut, rice-potato-groundnut, rice-wheat-groundnut, rice-maize-groundnut and rice-mustard-fallow in the Lower Gangetic Plain of India. CMIP-5 multi-model ensemble, long-term crop sequence modelling using DSSAT and a multiple criteria decision analysis tool, TOPSIS was used to evaluate sustainability. Future climate scenarios were developed using 29 GCMs from which a subset of 5 representative GCMs was selected for mid-century (2040-2069) and end-century (2070-99) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Weighted average ensemble yield, ETa and nitrogen fixed by all cropping sequences for the study period were used to rank cropping sequences for sustainability using TOPSIS.Results and DiscussionThe minimum and maximum temperatures during mid and end-centuries were projected to be consistently higher than the baseline period (1980-2010) for all the cropping seasons. Under all the periods, rice-lentil-groundnut had the highest weighted average ensemble yield, followed by rice-wheat-groundnut. Rice-lentil-groundnut fixed the highest quantity of nitrogen, followed by rice-maize-groundnut. Ranking of cropping sequences for sustainability by the TOPSIS method indicated that during mid-century (under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the rice-lentil-groundnut sequence will be the most sustainable cropping sequence. However, by the end century, the rice-wheat-groundnut sequence will be the most sustainable cropping sequence, followed by rice-lentil-groundnut under both RCP4.5 and 8.5. In all the cropping sequences, rice will be benefitted by higher amount of nitrogen fixed and preceding groundnut. The three parameters considered for defining sustainability in crop production (yield, ETa and N-fixed) ensures higher produce and return for the farmer, less dependence on irrigation sources and increase in soil nitrogen content. In this paper, we show for the first time that cropping sequences can be evaluated for sustainability by combining crop sequence modelling, GCM ensemble and multi-criteria decision analysis. The results of the study will help the farmers of the study area to opt for the most sustainable cropping sequence and other alternatives in the context of climate change.

The Development and Pilot Study of a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to Compare Patient and Provider Priorities around Amputation-Level Outcomes.

Patients and providers have successfully completed our MCDA, and patients feel the MCDA may be useful in clinical practice.We encountered several methodologic challenges and identified approaches to ease participant burden.When data are sparse, using the Sheffield elicitation framework is helpful in creating a performance matrix, although patients relied largely on their amputation experiences to complete the exercise. Blinding the alternatives may help patients better understand the process.

Strategic planning of rural areas: Integrating participatory backcasting and multiple criteria decision analysis tools

In rural areas, the fostering of new development paths requires a strategic planning process characterised by several kinds of uncertainties. The existence of multiple decision makers increases the complexity of the analysis, and it is difficult to identify a solution that is acceptable to the different stakeholders. This condition requires identifying appropriate methods to involve stakeholders and to reflect their different priorities. The objective of this paper is to test the suitability of an innovative methodological framework that integrates backcasting and multiple criteria decision-making tools. Backcasting would enable planners to acquire relevant knowledge of local stakeholders, while multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods would allow prioritising the alternatives. The results of the experiment offer technical advice to outline the development strategy of a Georgian Local Action Group. After a strategic analysis of the area, the Best Worst Method and the Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to COmpromise Solution (MARCOS) were used to prioritise the desired futures for the development of the territory and to rank the main obstacles and opportunities, while strategic actions were identified through a backcasting approach. The resulting strategy seems to reflect the vision of most of the participants and is proven to be an effective and approachable method for rural strategic planning. Nevertheless, the main strength of the approach lies in its transversality and in its applicability to face complex issues whenever different actors with different interests come into play.

Classification of groundwater suitability for irrigation purposes using a comprehensive approach based on the AHP and GIS techniques in North Kurdufan Province, Sudan

Deterioration of groundwater quality due to drastic human interventions is rising at an alarming rate particularly in lower- and middle-income countries. Yet, limited research effort has been devoted to monitoring and ascertaining groundwater quality. The present study develops a comprehensive irrigation water quality index (IWQI) for rating water quality of shallow and deep aquifers in North Kurdufan province, Sudan. The new approach is developed to overcome the deficiencies of the existing irrigation indices and coming up with a unified decision for classifying water quality for irrigation purposes. Because of these indices like permeability index (PI), sodium absorption ratio (SAR), etc., depending on specific elements, entirely subjective, as well as the great variations in their results, particularly when classifying water quality. Thus, IWQI is created based on eight indices that are generally used to evaluate irrigation water quality, plus three physicochemical parameters have been proven an impact on water quality. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied to minimize the subjectivity at assign parameter weights under multiple criteria decision analysis tools (MCDA). The spatial distribution of IWQI agrees with the spatial distribution of the most parameters. The results of our approach reveal that the majority of samples are suitable for irrigation uses for both aquifers except few wells in the confined aquifer. Also, noted that there are very variations in the irrigation indices results for classifying water quality. The comparison result showed that the new index robust, fair calculations and has best classifying of water quality.

Multi-Criteria Examination of Power-to-Gas Pathways under Stochastic Preferences

Power-to-gas is an energy storage and vector technology which can utilize off-peak power, assist in the integration of renewable power and provide needed fuel for industry and transportation. Further, power-to-gas is a useful technology for balancing surplus baseload and renewable energy generation with demand. There are numerous applications of power-to-gas in Europe, where renewable power is used to generate hydrogen for numerous applications. Examining each of these power-to-gas pathways across quantitative and qualitative criteria, this paper utilizes the stochastic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine criteria weights. These weights are then fed to a multiple criteria decision analysis tool to determine the viability of each pathway for investors and policy makers. A sensitivity analysis is carried out by reprioritizing the criteria and re-evaluating the multiple criteria analysis. The two pathways that score highest under multiple criteria rankings are power-to-gas to mobility-fuel and power-to-gas-to-power, due to their established technologies, lower costs and environmental performance. By extension, both of these power-to-gas pathways are the most appropriate ways for this technology to be implemented, due to their combination of public familiarity, emissions reductions, and developed, available technologies.

Stakeholder driven development of a multi-criteria decision analysis tool for purchasing off-patent pharmaceuticals in Kuwait

BackgroundIn Kuwait, the government is planning to improve the specifications for purchase of medicine and to improve the tendering system intending to slow the growth of the expenditure for medicine and to improve the sustainability of the healthcare system. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a method which can help to assess multiple and sometimes conflicting criteria in the evaluation of the available alternatives. The objective of this initiative was to develop collaboratively a MCDA tool which is locally relevant, and which could be used to improve the use of performance indicators in the purchasing of off-patent pharmaceuticals.MethodsNineteen leading experts representing a broad range of pharmaceutical policy stakeholders elaborated a locally adapted MCDA format by following a 7-step process for criteria selection, scoring, ranking and weighting.ResultsThe most important criterion was the price measured as savings versus the originator product with a weight of 35% in the final decision and a full score with a 60% price reduction. In addition, eight criteria were considered important for assessing the product performance in the Kuwaiti healthcare system: ‘equivalence with the reference product’ (weight of 16.2%), ‘stability and drug formulation’ (13.5%), ‘quality assurance’ (11.2%), ‘reliability of drug supply’ (8.8%), ‘macroeconomic benefit’ (5.5%), ‘real world outcomes (clinical and economic)’ (4.2%), ‘pharmacovigilance’ (3.3%), and ‘added value services related to the product’ (2.3%).ConclusionsA MCDA model was successfully adapted to the Kuwait decision context by a group of Kuwaiti pharmacists from a broad range of institutions. The participants agreed with the approach and considered it suitable to improve the transparency and consistency of decision making for off-patent pharmaceuticals in Kuwait. A pilot implementation project was proposed.

PHP12 - Value-Based Decisions for Off-Patent Pharmaceuticals in Developing Countries – A Pilot Study Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Tenders in Indonesia

Off-patent pharmaceuticals (OPPs) play a vital role in meeting public health objectives, especially in developing countries with high budgetary constraints. Despite a high need for minimizing acquisition cost, additional criteria matter and therefore, Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can support prioritization. The objective of our work was to develop an approach which can be easily adapted and implemented by decision makers in developing countries in order to improve the evidence base, robustness and transparency of policy decisions related to OPPs. A spreadsheet was developed based on previously suggested decision criteria for OPPs (Brixner et al, ViHRI 2018). This is complemented by a policy workshop with representatives of multiple stakeholder to set local priorities and define requirements to be met by manufacturers of OPPs. A pilot workshop was conducted in Indonesia in order to test and improve the spreadsheet and workshop format. The format was implemented successfully to adapt the MCDA framework to the specific local decision requirements for OPP tenders. The key success factors are: (1) all important stakeholder groups were represented in the 2-day workshop (2) a local health-policy leader was the owner of the process (3) the international academic moderators guided the participants through the process but did not influence the local priority setting (4) realistic case studies helped to test and fine-tune the initial MCDA tool. The criteria selected for OPP tenders in Indonesia were acquisition cost (40% weight), manufacturing quality (18.8%), equivalence with the reference product (12.2%), product formulation and stability (12.2%), supply reliability (8.4%), real-world outcomes (4.2%) and pharmacovigilance (3.6%). A standardized interactive format can be implemented in developing countries to support decision makers in establishing value-driven off-patent pharmaceutical policies.

Guidance toward the implementation of multicriteria decision analysis framework in developing countries

ABSTRACTIntroduction: Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used in health care mainly because it moves decision-making from ad hoc to an evidence-based and comprehensive process. Developing countries with more restricted financial and human research capacities, however, should consider their own methods of MCDA development and implementation.Areas covered: An MCDA framework to improve procurement decisions of off-patent pharmaceuticals was developed for developing countries and adapted to Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Vietnam during three policy workshops. Based on the experience of these workshops and one joint workshop with international experts and decision makers from multiple developing countries, general recommendations were formulated on how to implement MCDA specifically in developing countries. We provide 17 practical MCDA implementation recommendations in four major areas, including (1) MCDA objectives; (2) technical considerations of MCDA tool; (3) development and customization of MCDA tool and (4) policy implementation of MCDA in decision-making.Expert commentary: These practical MCDA recommendations for developing countries contribute to feasible, transparent, stepwise, iterative and standardized decision-making in health care.

Application of multi‐criteria decision analysis tool for design of a sustainable micro‐grid for a remote village in the Himalayas

Decision analysis tool is utilised for the design and analysis of a microgrid with a perspective of sustainable development for a remote location in the hilly terrain of Himalayas. The microgrid design is based on the locally available energy resources, such as solar, wind, running water streams to meet the electrical load demand. The village selected has no access to electricity till date. A door-to-door survey is conducted to project the current and future load demand of the community. The complexity in designing sustainable energy system due to the inclusion of multiple criteria with multiple objectives and scenarios has increased to a great extent. Involvement of multiple stakeholders with differing views and various factors such as social, technical, environmental, economic and political/institutional, makes the process more tedious. For a successful design of the microgrid for such locations, a synergy needs to exist between differing viewpoints of stakeholder when multiple criteria with various scenarios are considered. Multiple criteria decision analysis tools are best suitable for such scenarios especially for energy planning based on renewable energy technologies. The process outlined in this paper will be helpful for successful design of sustainable microgrids for unelectrified and rural location in developing nations.

Potential impact of the implementation of multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) on the Polish pricing and reimbursement process of orphan drugs.

BackgroundThe objective of this study was to assess the potential impact of the implementation of multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) on the Polish pricing and reimbursement (P&R) process with regard to orphan drugs.MethodsA four step approach was designed. Firstly, a systematic literature review was conducted to select the MCDA criteria. Secondly, a database of orphan drugs was established. Thirdly, health technology appraisals (HTA recommendations) were categorized and an MCDA appraisal was conducted. Finally, a comparison of HTA and MCDA outcomes was carried out. An MCDA outcome was considered positive if more than 50 % of the maximum number of points was reached (base case). In the sensitivity analysis, 25 % and 75 % thresholds were tested as well.ResultsOut of 2242 publications, 23 full-text articles were included. The final MCDA tool consisted of ten criteria. In total, 27 distinctive drug-indication pairs regarding 21 drugs were used for the study. Six negative and 21 positive HTA recommendations were issued. In the base case, there were 19 positive MCDA outcomes. Of the 27 cases, there were 12 disagreements between the HTA and MCDA outcomes, the majority of which related to positive HTA guidance for negative MCDA outcomes. All drug-indication pairs with negative HTA recommendations were appraised positively in the MCDA framework. Economic details were available for 12 cases, of which there were 9 positive MCDA outcomes. Amongst the 12 drug-indication pairs, two were negatively appraised in the HTA process, with positive MCDA guidance, and two were appraised in the opposite direction.ConclusionsAn MCDA approach may lead to different P&R outcomes compared to a standard HTA process. On the one hand, enrichment of the list of decision making criteria means further scrutiny of a given health technology and as such increases the odds of a negative P&R outcome. On the other hand, it may uncover additional values and as such increase the odds of positive P&R outcomes.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13023-016-0388-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Web-based geospatial multiple criteria decision analysis using open software and standards

ABSTRACTThe emerging ubiquity of geospatial information is providing an unprecedented opportunity to apply Geographical Information Systems (GIS)-based multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to a broad spectrum of use cases. Volunteered geographic information, open GIS software, geoservice-based tools, cloud-based virtualized platforms, and worldwide collaboration of both domain experts and general users have greatly increased the quantity and accessibility of geospatially referenced data resources. Currently, there is a lack of GIS-based MCDA tools that integrate this decision-driven process within a widely accessible, robust geoframework environment, designed for user-friendly interaction. In this contribution, we present a conceptual workflow and proof-of-concept software application, Geocentric Environment for Analysis and Reasoning (GEAR), which provides a viable transition path to enhance geospatial MCDA in the age of open GIS. We propose a Web-based platform that leverages open-source geotechnologies to incorporate a wide variety of geospatial data formats in a common solution space to allow for spatially enhanced and time-relevant decision analysis. Through the proposed workflow, a user can ingest and modify heterogeneous data formats, exploit temporally tagged data sources, create multicriteria decision analysis models, and visualize the results in an iterative and collaborative workspace. A sample case study applied to disaster relief is used to demonstrate the prototype and workflow. This proof-of-concept Web-based application provides a notional pathway of how to connect open-source data to open-source analysis through a geospatially enabled MCDA workflow that could be virtually accessible to many levels of decision makers from individuals to entire organizations.

MEASURING TRADE-OFFS AMONG CRITERIA IN A BALANCED SCORECARD FRAMEWORK: POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS RESEARCH FIELD

Claimed by the Harvard Business Review as one of the main innovations of recent decades in management systems, the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) has been widely studied and applied in different management contexts. However, despite recent progress and its undeniable merit, the BSC has its own shortcomings. As reported in the literature, it seems generally agreed that the way compensations between criteria within a BSC framework are calculated remains an open issue. Thus, one of the contributions of this study is to augment the theoretical discussion on the potentialities of the multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach to bring simplicity and transparency to the calculation of compensations (i.e. trade-offs) among evaluation criteria within a BSC framework. It seems important to underline that this paper builds on previous work and is not empirical research. However, it aims to extend the discussion to other (new) measurement contexts. We believe that the development and promotion of the integrated use of MCDA tools in BSC applications to measure trade-offs among evaluation criteria in the BSC framework can be a key factor in ensuring more successful implementations and uses of the BSC within firms.

Credit risk estimation using payment history data: a comparative study of Turkish retail stores

Our paper presents a comparative study applying logistic regression and multiple criteria decision analysis tools to the operations of wholesalers to assess the credit risk of their retailers using payment history data and to cluster the risky customers by ranking their risk levels. Our sample comprises approximately 6,000 retailer customers and 600.000 transactions of one of the major wholesalers of Turkey. Our findings emphasize the importance of using payment history and some non-financial factors data for predicting the creditworthiness of a firm.

Validation of the adaptive reuse potential (ARP) model using iconCUR

PurposeThis paper aims to focus on the adaptive reuse of existing buildings that have become obsolete, an important strategy for sustainable development and a pertinent response to excessive resource usage resulting from typical destruction and redevelopment.Design/methodology/approachThis paper looks at the validity of earlier work to model adaptive reuse potential (ARP) using a new multiple criteria decision analysis tool called iconCUR. Based on a review of 12 case studies, the paper determines the extent of agreement between ARP and iconCUR evaluations that both claim to be useful in making decisions about reuse.FindingsThe results show a high correlation between these approaches, whether based on raw scores or on relative ranking, and match expert opinion concerning appropriate actions. This work represents the culmination of a three‐year study into the strategic assessment of building adaptive reuse opportunities.Originality/valueThe paper provides confidence in the modelling of future interventions to revitalise existing built assets using a triple bottom line perspective.