Multinomial Logit Regression Research Articles

Factors influencing Midwestern grain farmers’ use of risk management tools

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify the relationships between grain farm and farmer profiles and their respective choices to use forward pricing techniques and revenue protection crop insurance to manage risk.Design/methodology/approachAn e-mail survey of Midwestern grain farmers elicited farmer demographic information, farm profile, risk attitudes and farmer use of forward pricing and revenue protection insurance. Responses regarding use of risk management tools were compiled as choices to use possible bundles of tools to account for simultaneous nature of the decision. Choices to use bundles of tools were used as the independent variable categories in a multinomial logit regression. Regressors were relevant data collected from the survey.FindingsFarm size, using a market advisory service, and being a technology adopter are the most important factors in predicting risk management tool use by grain farmers. Farmers tend to use forward pricing and revenue protection insurance in combination. Large farms are more likely to use forward pricing tools.Practical implicationsResults provide researchers, extension professionals and risk management specialists with a current understanding of how farm and farmer characteristics relate to use of risk management tools. The authors also elaborate on findings to provide guidance for future risk management research.Originality/valueThe survey covered 9 Midwestern states and 648 grain farmers. The survey results update understanding of grain farmers’ risk management practices. The empirical approach treats risk management decisions to use available tools as simultaneous, which recent literature suggests is more appropriate than earlier approaches.

Towards better mapping of forest management patterns: A global allocation approach

Forests provide numerous ecosystem services, such as timber yields, biodiversity protection and climate change mitigation. The type of management has an effect on the provision of these services. Often the demands for these services can lead to conflict – wood harvest can negatively impact biodiversity and climate change mitigation capacity. Although forest management differences are important, spatially explicit data is lacking, in particular on a global scale. We present here a first systematic approach which integrates existing data to map forest management globally through downscaling national and subnational forest data. In our forest management classification, we distinguished between two levels of forest management, with three categories each. Level 1 comprised primary, naturally regrown and planted forests. Level 2 distinguished between different forest uses. We gathered documented locations, where these forest categories were observed, from the literature and a database on ecological diversity. We then performed multinomial logit regression and estimated the effect of 21 socio-economic and bio-physical predictor variables on the occurrence of a forest category. Model results on significance and effect direction of predictor variables were in line with findings of previous studies. Soil and environmental properties, forest conditions and accessibility are important determinants of the occurrence of forest management types. Based on the model results, likelihood maps were calculated and used to spatially allocate national extents of level 1 and level 2 forest categories. When compared to previous studies, our maps showed higher agreement than random samples. Deviations between observed and predicted plantation locations were mostly below 10 km. Our map provides an estimation of global forest management patterns, enhancing previous methodologies and making the best use of data available. Next to having multiple applications, for example within global conservation planning or climate change mitigation analyses, it visualizes the currently available data on forest management on a global level.

English

Merely providing support on improved yields for increased crop productivity to smallholder farmers can not improve the household food security. But parallel support for market linkages to crop producer smallholders can reap the full benefit of this increased crop productivity because lack of reliable and accessible market linking system has been found to be one of the main constraints faced by smallholder crop producer farmers for their food security improvements. So understanding the effects of crop market participation for the improvements of household food security has essential effects. The focus of this study is analyzing the effects of crop market participation in improving food security among smallholder crop producer farmers in the case of Ada’a woreda, Central Ethiopia. 160 sample size respondents of crop producer smallholder farmers represent this study. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected from primary and secondary sources. Interview schedules, focused group discussions and key informant interviews were the major data collection methods. Descriptive statistics, Tobit and multinomial logit econometric regression models were employed and operated for the analysis. The result showed that, high, low ad medium degree of crop market challenges and arable land size were significantly identified factors and affected household crop market participation intensity negatively. While none degree of crop market challenges and extension service for the household per year were significantly identified factors and affected household crop market participation intensity positively. Multinomial logit regression result revealed that, household crop market participation intensity was found significant at 1% sig. level on both moderately food secured (51_79) and food secured (80_102) household food security levels relative to food insecure (0_50) and showed its positive effect for the household food security improvement. As a result, though household crop market participation intensity influenced the household food security significantly at 1% sig. level but the food insecure situation is the most frequently occurring situation in the woreda. This implies the household crop market participation intensity in the woreda is low and producing crop for the purpose of household consumption rather than for market. Which indicated that crop market challenge reduced ways of interventions by triggering the augmentation of reliable and accessible marketing system through adaptable crop market linking approach is required for the central Ethiopia household food security enhancement. Key words: Crop market participation, food security, smallholders, Central Ethiopia/Ada’a woreda. &nbsp

Empirically based analysis of households coping with unexpected shocks in the central Himalayas

ABSTRACTClimate change may significantly impact the large number of households in developing countries depending on agricultural production, not least through changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of climatic hazards resulting in household income shocks. This paper analyses rural households’ responses to past experiences of and future expectations to substantial and unexpected negative and positive agricultural income shocks. Empirical data is derived from an environmentally-augmented structured household (n = 112) survey in the high mountains of central Nepal. Multinomial logit regression, using data on rural household demographics, assets (agricultural land, livestock), value of other assets such as furniture, bicycles, and agricultural implements, and income sources showed that household coping choices are determined by opportunities to generate cash. We argue that public policies should enhance the ability of rural household to generate cash income, including through environmental products.

Corporate insolvency procedures in England: the uneasy case for liquidations

Our paper investigates a comprehensive sample of 574 English corporate insolvency cases, including direct liquidation cases. In contrast to other insolvency procedures, liquidations perform poorly on average and fail to produce satisfactory repayments to creditors. We run multinomial Logit regressions to explain the choice between liquidation and reorganization. We obtain three main results. First, we confirm that size matters: distressed firms owning low assets have higher chances of being liquidated immediately. Second, the presence of secured creditors decreases the risk of direct liquidation. This provides a clue that in England, the most-informed creditors adapt their strategies and turn away from the less-performing procedures. Third, we find that the likelihood of administration—which appears nowadays as the main alternative to direct liquidation—significantly depends on the proportion of fixed/current assets owned by the firms.

Determinants Of Credit Sources Utilized By Small Scale Arable Crop Farmers In Imo State, Nigeria

Credit is not only one of the critical inputs in agriculture but is also an effective means of rural development. The study determined the sources utilized by small-scale arable crop farmers in Imo state, Nigeria. 80 respondents were randomly selected from 16 villages in one local government area selected at random among the 27 local government areas in Imo state, Nigeria and interviewed using structured questionnaire. The data were collected and analysed using descriptive statistics such as mean, percentages and frequency distributions and Multinomial logit regression model. The study revealed that majority (41.25%) of the farmers in the study area were middle-aged farmers between the ages of 30-49years and equal number of male and female arable crop farmers in the study area were interviewed of which majority (78.75%) were married and also had basic education (82.5%). The major source of credit utilized by the respondents in the study area is esusu (30%) followed by village cooperatives (17.5%) and then family and friends (12.5%). Results showed that very few farmers in the area used credit from banks (2.5%). Furthermore, the likelihood ratio statistics as indicated by 2 (80.84) are highly significant and had strong explanatory power to predict farmers choices. Household size, interest rate, farm size, value of assets and age were the major significant determinants of credit sources. It is recommended that credit should be extended more to respondents with higher age and low family size and credit institutions should reduce the long process involved in obtaining loan from their institutions.

Patient Quality of Life and Benefits of Leptin Replacement Therapy (LRT) in Generalized and Partial Lipodystrophy (GL, PL)

Effects of LRT on metabolic disease in GL and PL have been studied; however, little is known about consequences of GL and PL, or the effect of LRT, on quality of life (QoL). To characterize health utility consequences of GL and PL attributes on patients, a discrete choice experiment (following a tutorial on the disease) was conducted with 1,000 members of the general population. Multinomial logit regression was used to estimate utility decrements associated with each attribute using an approach similar to Bansback et al. (2012). Results were combined with data on prevalence of attributes before and after 1 year of LRT, derived from a retrospective chart review, to assess overall QoL consequences of GL, PL, and the impact of LRT in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Overall, QALY gains associated with LRT were estimated at 0.423 across all patients. Impaired work/school ability, hyperphagia and organ damage were the largest contributing attributes. A subgroup analysis for GL and PL found total QALY gains associated with LRT were 0.569 and 0.199, respectively. This study indicates that lipodystrophy is associated with a large QoL impairment and that the benefits of LRT may be substantial in these patients. Attribute utility decrements appear to be consistent with those reported in other research (e.g., for diabetes), yet the cumulative impact of attributes makes the burden of GL and PL high. Disclosure O.A. Ali: Consultant; Self; Aegerion Pharmaceuticals. K. Cook: Consultant; Self; Aegerion Pharmaceuticals. K.S. Shampanier: Consultant; Self; Aegerion Pharmaceuticals. E. Tuttle: Consultant; Self; Aegerion Pharmaceuticals. C. Gerrits: None. R. Brown: None.

Aging population, farm succession, and farmland usage: Evidence from rural China

The aging farming population has a significant influence on production agriculture, succession planning, successors, and farmland usage. Given recent trends in urban migration and increased opportunities for off-farm work, aging farmers increasingly face problems with farmland succession and usage in China. This study investigates the usage of farmland in the absence of a farm successor. Using multinomial logit regression model and data from rural households, we find that aging farmers without successors tend to have options for farmland usage. Specifically, the presence of a grain subsidy increases the likelihood of keeping the farmland in agriculture—albeit by hiring labor or leasing out farmland and decreases the likelihood of pooling farmland into farming cooperatives as shareholders. Off-farm work decreases the likelihood of using hired labor and leasing out farmland. Rich rural households are less likely to keep farmland idle. Large farm operators are more likely to lease out farmland. Finally, rural people with pension plans are more likely to pool their land in land cooperatives — a less-risky option.

Is poverty the cause of nonattendance in schools and prevalence of idleness in children? A regional analysis of Sind

This paper investigates the extent to which poverty determines the activities of children in the province of Sind. A structured demand model is estimated using multinomial logit regression, whereby the effect of the variables poverty, mother autonomy and gender equality are measured on schooling, student labour, child labour and idleness. The results reveal that greater poverty levels negatively impact parents’ decision regarding child schooling. Furthermore, higher educational gender equity and mother empowerment is positively associated with child schooling.

The Impact of Income and Taxation in a Price-Tiered Cigarette Market: findings from the ITC Bangladesh Surveys

BackgroundTaxing tobacco is among the most effective measures of tobacco control. However, in a tiered market structure where multiple tiers of taxes coexist, the anticipated impact of tobacco taxes on...

Duration and setting of rural immersion during the medical degree relates to rural work outcomes.

Providing year-long rural immersion as part of the medical degree is commonly used to increase the number of doctors with an interest in rural practice. However, the optimal duration and setting of immersion has not been fully established. This paper explores associations between various durations and settings of rural immersion during the medical degree and whether doctors work in rural areas after graduation. Eligible participants were medical graduates of Monash University between 2008 and 2016 in postgraduate years 1-9, whose characteristics, rural immersion information and work location had been prospectively collected. Separate multiple logistic regression and multinomial logit regression models tested associations between the duration and setting of any rural immersion they did during the medical degree and (i) working in a rural area and (ii) working in large or smaller rural towns, in 2017. The adjusted odds of working in a rural area were significantly increased if students were immersed for one full year (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-2.79), for between 1 and 2 years (OR, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.54-3.32) and for 2 or more years (OR, 4.43; 95% CI, 3.03-6.47) relative to no rural immersion. The strongest association was for immersion in a mix of both regional hospitals and rural general practice (OR, 3.26; 95% CI, 2.31-4.61), followed by immersion in regional hospitals only (OR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.39-2.70) and rural general practice only (OR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.06-3.45). More than 1 year's immersion in a mix of regional hospitals and rural general practices was associated with working in smaller regional or rural towns (<50 000 population) (relative risk ratios [RRR] 2.97; 95% CI, 1.82-4.83). These findings inform medical schools about effective rural immersion programmes. Longer rural immersion and immersion in both regional hospitals and rural general practices are likely to increase rural work and rural distribution of early career doctors.

Effects of Metal Foam Porosity, Pore Size, and Ligament Geometry on Fluid Flow

This paper explores the effects of porosity, pore size, and ligament geometry in metal foams on its fluid flow capability. The motivation to understand this phenomenon stems from exploring the use of metal foams for thermal energy dissipation applications where both thermal convection and fluid flow are desired. The goal of this research is to identify the optimum configuration of metal foam design parameters for maximum flow. To study the impacts of said parameters, an experimental study of air flow through open cell metal foams is performed. Seven foam blocks were used in this partial factorial study, representing varying materials, pore size, and porosity. Wind tunnel tests are performed to measure the velocity of air flowing through the foam as a function of the free stream air velocity. Multinomial logit regression was performed to analyze the effects of the design parameters on velocity loss through the foam. Results indicate that effect of porosity on velocity loss is significant while that of pore size is insignificant. However, one test result did not fit this trend and further investigation revealed that this was due to varying ligament geometry in outlier metal foam. The cross section shape of the ligaments varied from a convex triangular shape to a triangle shape with concave surfaces, increasing the amount of drag in the airflow through the sample.

Intra-Asian performing arts tourism – the motivations, intentions, and performance preferences of Japanese visitors

ABSTRACTTo provide an enhanced understanding of performing arts tourism in the Asian context, the present study investigates the motivations, intentions and performance preferences of a particular source market – Japan. Five primary motivations identified for this group when travelling to Korea to watch a theatre-based performance were: to relieve stress, to learn about Korean culture, to socialise, to enhance their life satisfaction, and curiosity. The various motivations were significantly different in the case of the following independent variables: socio-demographics, prior experiences of travel and of attending performances. Diverging results were reported from the respective analyses using the multinomial logit and BN regression models. The respondents who were most favourably disposed to attending a future theatre-based performance in Korea were (based on their future intentions), married, aged over 40, had prior experience of attending a Korean performance, had at least a college level education, preferred modern-style performances and were ready to pay an admission fee of US$40 or above.

Assessing rear-end crash potential in urban locations based on vehicle-by-vehicle interactions, geometric characteristics and operational conditions

Rear-end crashes are one of the most frequently occurring crash types, especially in urban networks. An understanding of the contributing factors and their significant association with rear-end crashes is of practical importance and will help in the development of effective countermeasures. The objective of this study is to assess rear-end crash potential at a microscopic level in an urban environment, by investigating vehicle-by-vehicle interactions. To do so, several traffic parameters at the individual vehicle level have been taken into consideration, for capturing car-following characteristics and vehicle interactions, and to investigate their effect on potential rear-end crashes. In this study rear-end crash potential was estimated based on stopping distance between two consecutive vehicles, and four rear-end crash potential cases were developed. The results indicated that 66.4% of the observations were estimated as rear-end crash potentials. It was also shown that rear-end crash potential was presented when traffic flow and speed standard deviation were higher. Also, locational characteristics such as lane of travel and location in the network were found to affect drivers’ car following decisions and additionally, it was shown that speeds were lower and headways higher when Heavy Goods Vehicles lead. Finally, a model-based behavioral analysis based on Multinomial Logit regression was conducted to systematically identify the statistically significant variables in explaining rear-end risk potential. The modeling results highlighted the significance of the explanatory variables associated with rear-end crash potential, however it was shown that their effect varied among different model configurations. The outcome of the results can be of significant value for several purposes, such as real-time monitoring of risk potential, allocating enforcement units in urban networks and designing targeted proactive safety policies.

Value-based prediction of election results using natural language processing: A case of the New Zealand General Election

In this article, we report the results of a study that tested a values-based method of predicting political election results. The study was carried out on the 2014 New Zealand General Election, randomly selecting a stratified sample from a consumer panel. The survey of 858 participants used open-ended questions to invoke and capture values relevant to the election. By using corpus linguistic analysis techniques, terms were ranked by weighting based on a log-frequency entropy method. Lexicons for Lasswell and Kaplan’s societal value framework reduced the corpus of term-weighted documents to a workable number of eight user-defined societal value-topics. The topics were regressed onto the individual voting decision using a multinomial logit (MNL) regression. The mean absolute deviation (MAD) from the actual vote was 1.8%, much less than the margin of error of 3.5% expected from sampling error alone. The methodology was successful in predicting the outcome for the minor parties with good accuracy, for example, the prediction for the then newly formed Internet-Mana was out by about 0.5%. The framing-balanced, value-based predictions exhibited reasonable stability, considering they were made six weeks before Election Day. Thus the values relevant to the voters and a good prediction of the voting behavior became evident ahead of the official campaign period, which started four weeks before Election Day in New Zealand. Our study concluded that the value-based prediction shows promise for improving the quality of political journalism and public engagement in the period of election campaigns, and will assist greatly in focusing public debate more on values that are influential on citizens’ voting decisions.

Distinct clusters of stunted children in India: An observational study

Childhood stunting is often conceptualised as a singular concept (i.e., stunted or not), and such an approach implies similarity in the experiences of children who are stunted. Furthermore, risk factors for stunting are often treated in isolation, and limited research has examined how multiple risk factors interact together. Our aim was to examine whether there are subgroups among stunted children, and if parental characteristics influence the likelihood of these subgroups among children. Children who were stunted were identified from the 2005–2006 Indian National Family Health Survey (n = 12,417). Latent class analysis was used to explore the existence of subgroups among stunted children by their social, demographic, and health characteristics. We examined whether parental characteristics predicted the likelihood of a child belonging to each latent class using a multinomial logit regression model. We found there to be 5 distinct groups of stunted children; “poor, older, and poor health‐related outcomes,” “poor, young, and poorest health‐related outcomes,” “poor with mixed health‐related outcomes,” “wealthy and good health‐related outcomes,” and “typical traits.” Both mother and father's educational attainment, body mass index, and height were important predictors of class membership. Our findings demonstrate evidence that there is heterogeneity of the risk factors and behaviours among children who are stunted. It suggests that stunting is not a singular concept; rather, there are multiple experiences represented by our “types” of stunting. Adopting a multidimensional approach to conceptualising stunting may be important for improving the design and targeting of interventions for managing stunting.

Transit user reactions to major service withdrawal – A behavioural study

Public Transport (PT) plays an important role in mobility in urban areas. A major PT disruption removing all service can have a considerable impact on travel and increase traffic congestion. This paper investigates the behavioural reactions of PT users in Melbourne to removal of PT service using self-reported responses and an online questionnaire. Of the 640 respondents, 52% would switch from PT to become a car driver, 11% would switch to car as a passenger and 5% would shift to taxi/Uber. Mode shift to cars would directly contribute to an increase in congestion. By contrast, only 31% in total would switch to either non-motorised modes (cycle and walk) or trip cancellation. In order to explore factors affecting changes in travel behaviour among PT users, a multinomial logit regression model was adopted. The analysis indicates that users with a driver's license or a car were found to prefer using a car should PT be unavailable. Work trips were more likely to be undertaken by car as a driver. Users who had trips to the CBD were more likely to cancel their trips and those who accessed PT stations by car were more willing to shift to being a car driver. This paper provides new insights into how PT users change their travel behaviour in the event of major PT disruptions. Based on the findings, potential measures can be proposed to mitigate the increase in traffic congestion.

One size fits all? Contract farming among broiler producers in China

Contract farming has been increasingly found to benefit smallholders in developing countries, yet much less is known about its role in the poultry industry where economies of scale could be more prominent. This study aims to narrow this gap by analysing the choice of contract farming among Chinese broiler producers using a nationally representative survey. Simply cost-benefit analysis and multinomial logit regression modelling are jointly employed to explain contract farming decision making especially among small producers. In contrast to many recent studies, we find that small producers, though not passively excluded, usually opt out of contract farming due to limited profitability when large producers are coexistent. Such relationship is appropriately identified through a control function approach to correct for possible endogeneity. Therefore, contract farming may not help achieve higher welfare goals for small broiler producers who actually instead seek alternative market opportunities that better realise their comparative advantages.

Location factors and spatial dependence in household perceptions and adaptations to climate change: A case in the upper Blue Nile Basin

ABSTRACTStudies on perceptions of, and adaptation responses to, climate change have not paid sufficient attention to location and neighbourhood effects. Moreover, although one often regards perceptions as preconditions for adaptation, some direct and underlying factors may influence perceptions and adaptations in opposite ways. To assess determinants of perceived directions of climate change and adaptations by farmers, the paper formulates ordered response and multinomial choice models accounting for the location and neighbourhood effects. Relative to a survey of rural households in the Ethiopian Nile basin, perceptions of long-term climate trends are found to substantially vary across regions, altitudes, distances from markets, and neighbourhood characteristics, with climate reference scales being themselves non-uniform across respondents. The inclusion of proxies for local spatial dependence and clustering in multinomial logit regressions on adaptation decisions provides further insights, relative to individual- and farm-specific features. Adaptation measures turn out to be largely independent from degree of awareness of negative trends in climate changes. This highlights the importance of adaptive strategies coordinated at regional and national scale, such as preventive measures of control of pest damage risk due to increasing temperatures, and specific interventions for semi-arid agro-climatic zones.

Market participation and marketing channel preferences by small scale sorghum farmers in semi-arid Zimbabwe

ABSTRACTA fundamental concern of agricultural development is the efficient marketing of goods and services. This paper examines the determinants of market participation and marketing channel choice decisions by small scale sorghum farmers using a case comprising 380 households from five Wards in the mid Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe. Mixed data collection approaches including a questionnaire, observations and focus group discussions were used. Secondary data triangulated and validated farmers’ responses. A double hurdle based on probit and multinomial logit regression models was applied to the two decision making stages. Ninety six percent of the sampled farmers participated in some market as influenced by payment time, number of buyers in the market, age of principal decision maker and distance to market. Three marketing channels were isolated as local, traders and a combination. The local marketing channel dominates due to its convenience and relatively lower transaction costs. Using the local market option as the referent category, weighted average market price of sorghum, number of buyers in the market, distance to the market, dependency ratio and household income are the most robust determinants of marketing channel selection. Sorghum marketing channel options are limited for small scale farmers in Zimbabwe. Strengthening cooperative based and extension anchored marketing can reduce the risks associated with relating to external traders who usually exploit farmers for price, payment time and quality requirements. Decentralisation of the sorghum markets and promotion of value addition activities in the sorghum value chain is likely to reduce transaction costs and increase the market size.