Multilevel Multinomial Models Research Articles

Going Off the Grid: Assessing Sentencing Departures for Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses

This research examines factors associated with departures from sentencing guidelines for a sample of individuals convicted of sexual offenses in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2015 ( N = 26,093). We contribute to the literature on the sentencing of these cases by considering whether the impact of individual and contextual factors is conditioned by the type of sexual offense being sentenced (e.g., assaultive, child pornography, failure to comply with registration). Bayesian multilevel multinomial logit models suggested a number of legal, extralegal, and contextual correlates of departure likelihood, and indicated that the effects of offense severity, prior record, a previous sex offense conviction, multiple concurrent convictions, and court size vary across different subsets of sexual convictions.

You are my favourite! Parent–child relationships and satisfaction in later life in Italy

AbstractIntergenerational transfers measured in several currencies (e.g. co-residence, contact, proximity and support) have been always considered important indicators for family solidarity. Most of the studies on intergenerational transfers examine the structural characteristics of such exchanges (as distance, frequency, type, motives), emphasising the potential positive association between the structure and the quality of parent–child relationships. Additionally, while most surveys include questions on the structural indicators of family exchanges, it is still uncommon for them to contain assessments of the relationships between parents and their adult children as well. Using the Italian 2009 Family Survey, this study analyses the satisfaction of parent–child relationships for parents aged 65 and older. After examining the association of such a variable with the structural indicators of intergenerational exchanges (frequency of contact), we explored the individual factors associated with satisfaction of relationships with a child using multilevel multinomial models. Overall, older Italian parents report high satisfaction in their relationships with their adult children. Additionally, a not strong, but statistically significant association between structure (contact) and satisfaction was found. This study shows how high satisfaction of relationships with children is positively associated with being a mother and being married and negatively associated with bad health status. Some of the variables considered have different impacts between the sexes of parents. Additionally, a better appreciation of relationships with daughters compared to sons was found, especially for fathers.

Cultural values and definitions of career success

AbstractThis paper examines how national culture relates to the ways that individuals define career success. Data are drawn from interviews with 269 professional services employees in 15 countries. Interviews are content coded and linked with country‐level Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness measures of cultural values. We test our hypotheses using a multilevel multinomial logit model. The results demonstrate that the ways in which employees define career success vary across countries, due in part to differences in cultural values after controlling for gender, occupation, job level, and national economic development. We find that employees from countries high in future orientation, uncertainty avoidance, and performance orientation are more likely to define career success in terms of interpersonal outcomes, and those from countries high in collectivism (institutional and in‐group), humane orientation, and gender egalitarianism are more likely to prefer intrapersonal outcomes. We find that employees from countries that are high in assertiveness, uncertainty avoidance, and performance orientation are more likely to define career success in terms of achievement‐oriented outcomes. Finally, we find that employees from countries high in power distance report career success definitions in terms of safety and security outcomes. We discuss the implications of these findings for theories of cultural differences in careers across countries.

State variation in the drug felony lifetime ban on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families: Why the modified ban matters

The drug felony lifetime ban on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) affects thousands of individuals with felony drug convictions in the United States. Federal law allows states to choose to opt out or modify the full ban. Prior research has treated the ban as a binary outcome, characterizing anything but a full ban as a sign of state reform of this harsh collateral consequence. We argue that modified versions of the ban, which simultaneously allow greater access to public aid while also monitoring and sanctioning recipient behavior, have been overlooked but pose important theoretical and empirical challenges to this narrative. To address this gap, we analyze state discretion in the implementation of the drug felony lifetime ban on TANF receipt between 1997 and 2010 utilizing a multilevel multinomial modeling strategy. Results reveal that distinct patterns of state-level factors are associated with each form of the ban, highlighting the need to treat modified bans as unique policy choices in their own right. Our study informs the understanding of state implementation of collateral consequences that straddle both the penal and welfare systems in the United States.

Optional-switch cognitive flexibility in primates: Chimpanzees' (Pan troglodytes) intermediate susceptibility to cognitive set.

Within human problem-solving, the propensity to use a familiar approach, rather than switch to a more efficient alternative is pervasive. This susceptibility to "cognitive set" prevents optimization by biasing response patterns toward known solutions. In a recent study, which used a nonverbal touch screen task, baboons exhibited a striking ability to deviate from their learned strategy to use a more efficient shortcut. Humans, on the other hand, displayed the opposite response pattern and almost exclusively used a less efficient, but familiar, response. In the current study, we sought to further explore variation in susceptibility to cognitive set within the primate lineage by conducting the Learned Strategy-Direct Strategy task with 10 chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes). Using multilevel multinomial modeling, we found that chimpanzees' shortcut use was intermediate to baboons' and humans'. However, unlike either baboons or humans, there was pronounced inter- and intraindividual variability in chimpanzees' shortcut use. Additionally, a subset of chimpanzees employed a unique solution, wherein they switched strategies midtrial. Further, we found that chimpanzees did not exhibit switch costs when switching between the learned strategy and the shortcut, but humans did. We propose that differences in abstract rule encoding may underlie differences in susceptibility to cognitive set on the Learned Strategy-Direct Strategy task within the primate lineage. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

What characterizes the reminiscence bump in autobiographical memory? New answers to an old question.

The reminiscence bump represents one of the most robust findings in autobiographical memory research. As such, it has led to a number of different explanatory accounts that aim to elucidate it. Because most of these accounts have received some empirical support, it has been assumed that they may equally contribute to the explanation of the reminiscence bump phenomenon. In the present study, we used a multilevel multinomial mixed-effects model to examine the predictive power of explanatory variables selected from different accounts simultaneously. Analyses were based on 2,813 autobiographical memories that 97 older adults aged between 60 and 88 years reported in response to 31 cue words. Overall, the predictor variables (i.e., first-time experience, importance and emotional valence) meaningfully distinguished memories from the reminiscence bump from memories from life periods before and after. These effects, however, did not always go into the hypothesized directions. In addition, results of a Commonality Analysis indicated that although the explanatory accounts considered in the present study draw on qualities of autobiographical memories (within-person effects), they might be more useful in explaining why individuals differ in the number of autobiographical memories reported from the reminiscence bump period (between-person effects). Taken together, our findings are in line with a more integrative view on the reminiscence bump that, additionally, emphasizes the individual (e.g., the life-story account).

Multilevel multinomial logit model to study individual migration decision in Viet Nam

In this paper we study the impact of relevant factors, such as individual characteristics, wages, living areas, on individual migration decisions. We have been using data from Labor Force Survey 2014 from Genaral Statistics Office of Vietnam (LFS 2014). We are going to evaluate how these above factors affect the status of "short-term migration" and "long-term migration" compared to "nonmigration". The well-known model in this field is the multinomial logistic model. However, the multinomial logistic model does not control the latent factors that have different effects on migration decision. This would result that the estimated coefficients of the variables would no longer be reliable (biased estimates due to lack of important variables). Hence, we have selected a multilevel multinomial logistic model. The levels we choose to control latent factors are province and region levels. As the results, the potential factors of different provinces and regions show different impacts on migration decisions. To sum up, a multilevel multinomial logistic model gives more reliable estimates, so it is more suitable for migration analysis compared to conventional multinomial logistic model.

Teachers’ attitudes towards lesson study, perceived competence, and involvement in lesson study: evidence from junior high school teachers

ABSTRACTA considerable body of literature has shown the benefits of lesson study, but little attention has been paid to the determinants of lesson study involvement. This study examines how teachers’ participation in lesson study is affected by their attitudes towards lesson study as well as their perceived competence. A multilevel logistic regression model and a multilevel multinomial logit model are separately used to analyse representative data on active junior high school teachers in Taiwan. The results reveal that teachers’ positive attitudes towards self-development are significantly correlated with complete participation as well as with partial participation in the lesson study cycle, while teachers’ perceived competence only relates to complete participation. This study not only contributes to developing predictors of lesson study involvement but also provides valuable references for policymakers.

Transitions from Unemployment to Education in Europe: The Role of Educational Policies

AbstractThe aim of this study is to investigate cross-country variability in transition rates from unemployment to further education among young adults, as well as how barriers in educational systems affect these transition rates. Previous research on adult further education has largely neglected the role of policies, and has not taken unemployed people into account.Two dimensions of educational policies are investigated. (1) Barriers facing prospective students with regard to previous academic achievements (e.g. second chance opportunities); and (2) financial barriers (e.g. high costs). It is hypothesized that low barriers are associated with higher transition rates into education, especially for unemployed young adults with lower levels of education.The aim is approached by investigating how differences in transition rates across countries are linked to the design of educational policies. Cross-country standardised individual-level panel data from 29 European countries are taken from EU-SILC. Multilevel multinomial models are fitted.Results show that lower barriers in the education system are associated with higher probabilities that unemployed young adults leave unemployment to re-enter further education, although only partial support is found for the hypothesis that unemployed young adults with lower levels of education gain relatively more from low barriers. Low barriers are sometimes associated with lower transition rates into employment.

Explaining Differences Within and Between Countries in the Risk of Income Poverty and Severe Material Deprivation: Comparing Single and Multilevel Analyses

This study investigates the differences between the risk factors of income poverty and severe material deprivation by assessing to what extent both indicators are subject to the same underlying household-level and country-level determinants. Given that these two indicators encompass the majority of the Europe 2020 social inclusion target group, it is crucial for policy makers to better know which determinants are effective in explaining the differences within and between countries in the risk of these two target components. We employ a series of single-level and multilevel logistic multinomial models to explain differences between those who suffer from income poverty ‘only’, from severe material deprivation ‘only’, from both problems and none. The comparative use of single-level and multilevel methods allow for the first time to confront the respective within and between-country explanatory power of both types of models. In addition to the usual econometric approach of identifying significant relationships, we employed the Shapley decomposition method to compare the relative contribution of independent variables at the household-level (i.e. work intensity, household education, household costs, socio-demographic variables) and country-level (i.e. size of social spending (total, in-cash, in-kind), pro-poorness of social benefits, median income levels and the unemployment rate) to within and between-country explained variance measures. We apply our method to the cross-sectional European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions for the year 2012.

Leveling up the analysis of the reminiscence bump in autobiographical memory: A new approach based on multilevel multinomial models.

In many studies of autobiographical memory, participants are asked to generate more than one autobiographical memory. The resulting data then have a hierarchical or multilevel structure, in the sense that the autobiographical memories (Level 1) generated by the same person (Level 2) tend to be more similar. Transferred to an analysis of the reminiscence bump in autobiographical memory, at Level 1 the prediction of whether an autobiographical memory will fall within the reminiscence bump is based on the characteristics of that memory. At Level 2, the prediction of whether an individual will report more autobiographical memories that fall in the reminiscence bump is based on the characteristics of the individual. We suggest a multilevel multinomial model that allows for analyzing whether an autobiographical memory falls in the reminiscence bump at both levels of analysis simultaneously. The data come from 100 older participants who reported up to 33 autobiographical memories. Our results showed that about 12% of the total variance was between persons (Level 2). Moreover, at Level 1, memories of first-time experiences were more likely to fall in the reminiscence bump than were emotionally more positive memories. At Level 2, persons who reported more emotionally positive memories tended to report fewer memories from the life period after the reminiscence bump. In addition, cross-level interactions showed that the effects at Level 1 partly depended on the Level 2 effects. We discuss possible extensions of the model we present and the meaning of our findings for two prominent explanatory approaches to the reminiscence bump, as well as future directions.

A Multilevel Multinomial Model for the Dynamics of Graduates Employment in Italy

Several studies have demonstrated that skilled human capital is a key resource for the economic growth of a territory, since it helps to increase productivity, competitiveness and sustainability over time. The aim of this paper is to model the probability of working for university graduates 3 years after degree, taking into account the effectiveness and coherence of a degree with respect to the labour market. Hence, first of all, a multilevel binary logit model for measuring the probability of working will be discussed. Then, a multilevel multinomial model suitable to predict the probability of the possible job status, such as unemployed/unsteady employed/steady employed, will be further proposed. The ISTAT microdata regarding the Italian survey on the graduates’ employment conditions, will be used.

Exploring the Relationship Between School Transformation and Inclusion: A Bayesian Multilevel Longitudinal Analysis

AbstractGrounded in research and federal law, inclusive education is a right and preferred placement for all learners with disabilities receiving special education services. However, most students in the U.S. education system do not have access to inclusive education and few models are available to demonstrate how schools can develop and implement inclusive services. The purpose of this study was to describe the outcomes of one such endeavor, the SWIFT technical assistance model, aimed at transforming schools to develop inclusive, effective instruction for all students. Multilevel multinomial modeling was used to predict rates of inclusion over time for a subset of students with disabilities in schools participating in SWIFT technical assistance. The findings suggest schools did become more inclusive in their services, with many students predicted to be served in less restrictive general education placements and others no longer requiring special education services. Implications for inclusive education are provided.

Daily associations between alcohol and sexual behavior in young adults.

We tested within-person effects of alcohol on sexual behavior among young adults in a longitudinal burst design (N = 213, 6,487 days) using data collected from a previously published parent study. We differentiated effects of alcohol on likelihood of sexual activity versus use of protection against sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) or pregnancy on intercourse occasions by testing a multilevel multinomial model with 4 outcomes (no sex, oral sex without intercourse, protected intercourse, and unprotected intercourse). At the within-person level, effects of alcohol were hypothesized to be conditional upon level of intoxication (i.e., curvilinear effect). We also tested effects of four between-person moderators: gender, typical length of relationship with sexual partners, and two facets of self-control (effortful control and reactivity). Consistent with our hypothesis, low-level intoxication was associated with increased likelihood of engaging in oral sex or protected intercourse (relative to no sex) but was not related to likelihood of unprotected intercourse. The effect of intoxication on unprotected versus protected intercourse was an accelerating curve, significantly increasing likelihood of unprotected intercourse at high levels of intoxication. Between-person factors moderated associations between intoxication and sexual behavior. Effects of intoxication on both protected and unprotected intercourse were diminished for individuals with more familiar sexual partners. Effortful control exhibited a protective effect, reducing the effects of intoxication on likelihood of unprotected intercourse. Hypothesized effects of reactivity were not supported. Intoxication was a stronger predictor of oral sex and protected intercourse (but not unprotected intercourse) for women relative to men. Results highlight the inherent complexities of the alcohol-sexual behavior nexus. (PsycINFO Database Record

Irrigation Water Availability and Winter Wheat Abandonment in the North China Plain (NCP): Findings from a Case Study in Cangxian County of Hebei Province

The North China Plain (NCP) is the major winter wheat producing area in China. Abandonment of this crop has, however, become more and more prevalent in this region since the late 1990s. Although the underlying causes of this phenomenon remain little understood, irrigation water availability (IWA) has always been regarded as the key factor limiting winter wheat production on the NCP. The aim of this paper is to determine the role played by IWA in the abandonment of winter wheat, using evidence drawn from a case study in Cangxian County, Hebei Province. First-hand data were collected for this study from 350 households in 35 villages, using semistructured one-on-one questionnaires. Five types of irrigation water sources were defined and identified at the level of individual land plots: “ground and surface water”, “just groundwater”, “just rivers”, “just reservoirs”, and “no irrigation”. These levels correspond to a decreasing trend in the overall frequency of irrigation and thus provide a clear proxy indicator for IWA. The results from a series of multilevel multinomial models show that the higher the IWA, the less likely it is for a land plot to abandon winter wheat. Specifically, using “no irrigation” cases as a control group, the results show that land plots with more sources of irrigation water also tend to be characterized by greater IWA, including “ground and surface water” and “just groundwater”, and also have lower probabilities of abandoning winter wheat. In contrast, land plots with less IWA (less irrigation water sources), including “just reservoirs” and “just rivers”, are more likely to abandon winter wheat. The results also show that, in addition to IWA, soil quality and plot size at the plot level, as well as demographic characteristics, farm equipment, and land fragmentation at the household level and irrigation prices at the village level, all play additional significant roles in the cropping-system decisions made by farmers. A number of suggestions are made in this paper regarding policy implementation related to integrative water management and transferred water reallocation, in order to achieve the twin goals of water conservation and winter wheat production on the NCP.

Non-kin ties as a source of support in Europe: understanding the role of cultural context

ABSTRACTThe ‘crowding-out’ and the ‘decline of the family’ hypotheses are the fundamental theoretical notions underlying the literature on cross-country differences in informal support. In this study, we expand upon these notions to develop and test the premise that cultural context shapes European’s views about an often overlooked source of support: non-kin. We carefully conceptualise cultural context as individualistic values and familialistic norms. Employing multilevel multinomial models and European Quality of Life Survey data from 27 countries, we confirm the importance of decomposing the broader notion of culture by demonstrating that contexts with both less pronounced individualistic values and less pronounced familialistic norms are conducive to non-kin rather than kin or professional help. Moreover, unlike prior work, which suggested the existence of a north/west-south/east divide in support patterns, our findings show nuanced cross-national differences in the importance of non-kin ties as a source of advice and help when looking for a job. We find some of the highest levels of non-kin reliance in countries in southern and eastern Europe, and in northern and western Europe more generally. We conclude by proposing ways in which future research can advance our understanding of the role of context in shaping support patterns.

Attitudes toward transnational intermarriage in China: Testing three theories of transnationalization

Background: In an increasingly interconnected world, understanding the formation of transnational orientations is of great importance. Attitudes toward transnational intermarriage tell of people’s view of the transnational world and their perception of the social distance between countries and regions. Objective: The purpose of this research is to identify the holistic formations of Chinese people’s transnational orientations in relation to distinct countries and regions, and examine the individual- and province-level correlates of the distinctive profiles of transnational orientations in order to test theories of transnational convergence, transnational distinction, and individualized transnationalization. Methods: This research draws on individual-level data from the China General Social Survey (N = 3,000) and province-level data from the China Statistics Yearbook. Latent class analysis and multilevel multinomial random-intercept models are used to analyze the data. Results: A fourfold typology of attitudes toward transnational intermarriage is identified, namely cosmopolitan, pro-West, pro-East Asia, and anti-transnational. The results support the theory of transnational distinction rather than transnational convergence, as macro-level difference ‒ instead of convergence in the level of transnational activity and, particularly, socioeconomic development between countries ‒ fosters support for intermarriage. The thesis of individualized transnationalization is also supported, as individuals’ region-specific cultural consumption positively predicts their exclusive support for intermarriage with people from these regions. Conclusions: The findings reveal the ways in which uneven socioeconomic development, globalization, and individualization configure people’s transnational orientations in a development context.

Incorporating land use and pricing policies for reducing car dependence: Analytical framework and empirical evidence

This article develops an analytical framework to connect the theories of market and planning failures with the reasoning of incorporating land use and pricing policies for reducing driving and car dependence. A multilevel multinomial logit model (MML) is applied to estimate the effects of neighbourhood land use characteristics and price variables on travel mode choice of non-work trips and their interaction effects in the city of Austin, Texas. Results reveal that pricing policies are more efficient for reducing auto travel while land use policies appear better for adjusting non-auto travel. The practical significance of land use policies for reducing car dependence are more reflected in the modified effects of land use on pricing elasticities of driving probability. Pricing policies are more effective for reducing driving in neighbourhoods with a higher sidewalk density and a better accessibility to mixed-use activity centres. These findings validate the theoretical analysis and demonstrate the importance of coordinating land use and pricing policies together in the transportation planning practice.

Socioeconomic inequalities in health in the context of multimorbidity: A Korean panel study.

Socioeconomic inequalities in health are commonly known to decrease at late age. Yet, it remains unclear whether socioeconomic inequalities in health at late age appear in relation to multimorbidity, particularly in Korea where social support remains unsatisfactory for older people. Using three waves of Korea Health Panel, data of 19,942 observations with repeated measure were constructed to ensure a temporal sequence between three socioeconomic measures (i.e., poverty, employment status, and education) and multimorbidity with a t to t+1 year transition. A multilevel multinomial model was applied to quantify the socioeconomic impact across different age, diseases and disease groups, both separately and in combination. There were associations between socioeconomic position (SEP) and multimorbidity, and increasing trends of socioeconomic inequalities not only with greater number of morbidity but also with age. The latter result was only observed with employment status through mid-to-early old age; i.e., between the 40s (odds ratio (OR) = 2.45, 95% confidence interval (CI):1.08–5.57) and 70s (OR = 3.48, 95%CI: 1.24–9.74). The patterns of socioeconomic inequalities in multimorbidity varied for particular pairs of diseases and were stronger in the disease pairs co-occurring with mental and cardiovascular diseases but weaker in the disease pairs co-occurring with cancer. Accumulation of adversity tended to intensify with increase in number of diseases and older age, though this finding was not consistently supported. The labour market should be encouraged to actively participate in actions to promote healthy aging needs to be complemented by the provision of more generous and universal income support to the elderly in Korea.

Polycentricity, Performance and Planning

Polycentricity, Performance and Planning