Multilateral Context Research Articles

Ransomware as a threat to peace and security: understanding and avoiding political worst-case scenarios

ABSTRACT Ransomware is arguably the most disruptive cyber-dependent crime to date. It not only causes considerable economic loss globally but it also threatens public services and security such as critical infrastructure including public transport and healthcare facilities. In this paper, our aim is to foster a better understanding of the threat to peace and security, as well as facilitate debates on effective institutional remedies in a multilateral context. We will, therefore, engage in scenario building to identify plausible linkages between ransomware and political escalation at various levels. Three such linkages or causal chains are conceivable in our view. First, ransomware may aggravate the under-provision of basic public services within fragile societies and thus fuel intra-state conflicts around inequality and economic disparities. Second, amid geostrategic competition, increased high-tech sanctions and export controls may be undermined by state-sponsored cybercrime. Lastly, the risk of unintended escalation stemming from misattribution or operational errors is increasing. Following a risk analysis of the three aforementioned causal chains, we will then move to possible institutional remedies and address the numerous factors hindering progress at the global level.

Indonesia's Diplomacy Towards the Free Papua Organization (OPM)

Para diplomacy is conducted by a sub-nation entity, such as the Free Papua Organization (OPM), a representative of groups within the state to gain independence. Indonesia has had long negotiation experience with separatist groups, such as the Republic of South Maluku (RMS), pro-independence in East Timor (Fretilin), and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). Indonesia's diplomacy with the three movements has succeeded in solving the problem with various peace agreements. Since 1967, with the signing of the referendum, Indonesia still had to resolve various issues that led to the demand for independence. This paper analyzes Indonesia's diplomacy towards OPM by implementing SWAA instruments, namely Strength, Weakness, Advocacy and Adversary, in bilateral and multilateral context. Based on para diplomacy’s main objectives to reinforce identity claims, build and assert claims through actions to influence the international community, the analysis is focused on Indonesian efforts to weaken claims. The purpose of the study is to determine the supporting factors or challenges of OPM’s para diplomacy. The study would become a reference to the government and decision makers while from a theoretical aspect, would enrich understanding of para diplomacy. Hopefully that the study could support the Indonesian vision to maintain state sovereignty and integrity.

Canada’s Approach to Climate Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific: Analysis and Suggestions for Canada’s Engagement with ASEAN Countries under the Indo-Pacific Strategy

Drawing evidence from governmental datasets, policy reports, and other sources, this paper, focusing on the clean energy transition as the key aspect, examines Canada’s current approach to climate cooperation with ASEAN countries to “build a sustainable and green future,” echoing one of the strategic goals in Canada’s newly released Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). In particular, this paper argues that the current policy and financial assistance from Canada to ASEAN countries is unequal and insufficient. Moreover, there is a lack of continuity and measurable objectives within this cooperative framework, which primarily operates within a multilateral context. Given these characteristics, we propose that Canada's cooperation with ASEAN nations in addressing climate change should integrate the imperative for a clean energy transition. This approach has the potential to create numerous opportunities for engaging with ASEAN countries, while also aligning with the objectives of the IPS. Specifically, to enhance the effectiveness of IPS in this context, the Canadian government should emphasize experience sharing, fortify its business collaboration with ASEAN countries, and participate more actively in ASEAN-led initiatives.

‘A League of Minds’? Uses and abuses of the League of Nations’ internationalism by Fascist Italy

ABSTRACT This article aims to shed light on the rationale behind Fascist Italy’s participation in the League of Nations’ (L.o.N.) cultural organizations, as well as on the strategies and diplomatic tools it adopted with a view to setting the intellectual cooperation agenda in the 1920s and 1930s. Although inspired by a strong nationalist ideology, the Fascist regime, at least initially, successfully adapted its cultural diplomacy strategies to the multilateral context of the L.o.N., embracing the language and tools of internationalism. In the long run, however, this delicate balance between nationalist and internationalist attitudes proved untenable: Mussolini’ project aiming to convey a positive and tolerant image of Fascism to the outside world was firstly tainted by the measures taken in 1931 to regiment Italian intellectuals, and then finally collapsed with the aggression to Ethiopia. However, this article shows that the involvement in the L.o.N.’s cultural organizations, while providing Fascism with international channels for circulating its propaganda, also determined instances of real cooperation: the most emblematic case is represented by the development of cinematography, which can be considered Italy’s long-term contribution to the enhancement of intellectual cooperation within the L.o.N. in the interwar period.

Developing a Framework for Evaluating Nuclear Risks in South Asia

A new framework is essential for evaluating nuclear risks in South Asia. This region is marked by perennial disputes, emerging rivalries and long-standing extra-regional interferences, suggesting that it must be considered as a complex geostrategic frame of reference, rather than as a mere geographic construct. As key variables, postures such as no first use and escalate to de-escalate, as well as technological advances may either mitigate or exacerbate nuclear risks. Due to this complexity, causes of instability, risks of conflict, escalation to nuclear use and prospects of restraints and risk reduction will need to engage key players. This must occur not simply in dyadic, but also in multilateral contexts, due to the cascading effects of interactions among them. Within this framework, this essay will explore the erosion of no first use, the potential pitfalls of escalate to de-escalate and technological advances pose significant and worrying challenges for nuclear risk reduction.

EU-India relations in the multi-vector matrix of science diplomacy and Asia-Europe Meeting

Online training events deserve more attention as a form of people-to-people connectivity. The purpose of the article is to elaborate on how online training events gain prominence in the context of the COVID-19 imposed restrictions on geographical mobility. The autoethnographic account provides new ideas on what higher education extra-curricular and capacity building activities should be taken into consideration when taking a comprehensive look at people-to-people sustainable connectivity. As the analysed three online training events that took place over the summer 2020 show, these virtual occasions of people-to-people connectivity are promising building blocks for the future exploration of the EU structural diplomacy towards India both in a bilateral setting and multilateral context of Asia-Europe Meeting.

Status as a Reward

Rewarding in International Law foregrounds a topic that has been in the compliance literature for years but, as Anne van Aaken and Betül Simsek point out, tends to get treated as the mirror opposite of penalizing and therefore of little distinct analytical significance. In this essay, I seek to engage with their argument not by way of critique but rather to highlight some gaps and build on their insights. I introduce the notion of “status” as a reward and identify institutional mechanisms for conferring status, arguing that this is especially important in the multilateral context where institutions tend to be more prominent than in bilateral, transactional relations.

Long Live Monetary Gold *Terms and Conditions Apply

Zachary Mollengarden and Noam Zamir want to take back to basics the principle associated with the Monetary Gold Removed from Rome in 1943 (Monetary Gold) judgment of the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Their “categorical” and mostly doctrinal claim, underpinned by policy concern about “the tensions between the bilateral presuppositions of the Statute and the increasingly multilateral nature of international affairs and international disputes” is “that the Monetary Gold principle is irreconcilable with the ICJ Statute's jurisdictional architecture.” The tension between bilateralism and community interests often provides an attractive analytical perspective, and points raised by the authors might be relevant in calibrating certain aspects of the principle. But its wholesale critique, while skillfully put, is ultimately unpersuasive. Careful consideration of basic instruments and issues is commendable but an exclusive focus that does not engage with the broader international legal process will miss its unmistakable and widespread endorsement of the Monetary Gold principle. Even the concern about the multilateral context ultimately counts against rather than in favor of their argument. Multilateral sensitivities can already be articulated within the four corners of Monetary Gold, and Mauritius/Maldives, delivered just as the ink was drying on the first draft of this essay, is a perfectly timed example for that.

China's Conflict Mediation and the Durability of the Principle of Non-Interference: The Case of Post-2014 Afghanistan

AbstractChina's efforts in conflict mediation are an important test of the durability of the principle of non-interference. By analysing the approaches and means of China's post-2014 mediation efforts in Afghanistan, this article finds that China's behaviour shows it engages in medium-level interference in domestic affairs, but mostly with the host government's concurrence. This is because of the two forms China's mediation takes. In a bilateral context, China's mediation takes the form of “incentivizing mediation,” in which its economic power, and its omnidirectional foreign policy, provide incentives or leverage for warring factions to come to the negotiation table, but which also lets the warring factions formulate their own roadmap to peace talks. In a multilateral context, China sometimes engages in “formulative mediation,” in which the mediators, not the disputing parties, formulate a roadmap to peace talks.

Civil society in times of change: shrinking, changing and expanding spaces and the need for new regulatory approaches

AbstractThe relationship between many G20 governments and organized civil society has become more complex, laden with tensions, and such that both have to find more optimal modes of engagement. In some instances, state-civil society relations have worsened, leading some experts and activists to speak of a “shrinking space” for civil society. How wide-spread is this phenomenon? Are these more isolated occurrences or indeed part of a more general development? How can countries achieve and maintain an enabling environment for civil society? The authors suggest that much of the current impasse results foremost from outdated and increasingly ill-suited regulatory frameworks that fail to accommodate a much more diverse and expanded set of civil society organizations (CSO). In response, they propose a differentiated model for a regulatory framework based on functional roles. Based on quantitative profiling and expert surveys, moreover, the paper also derives initial recommendations on how governments and civil society could find ways to relate to each other in both national and multilateral contexts.

The Legal Principle of Reciprocity and China’s Water Treaty Practice

AbstractThe legal principle of reciprocity plays a strong role in the law of international watercourses in both bilateral and multilateral contexts. China, primarily an upstream state, shares transboundary rivers with 14 neighbouring states. These shared rivers are governed by a variety of treaties and soft law documents, with China preferring to take a bilateral approach. Building on previous research, this article aims to elaborate on the role that reciprocity has played in the development, maintenance and interpretation of the law of international watercourses and then applies this to China’s transboundary water treaties. For these purposes, this analysis focuses on China’s approach to sovereignty on its transboundary waters and the substantive, procedural and dispute settlement rules of China’s transboundary treaties, as well as future developments, including the influence of the concept of ‘common interests’ on China’s practices. There have been significant developments in China’s transboundary water cooperation, as transboundary waters are increasingly important for China’s development. The article concludes with the example of the China-led Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism, highlighting its reciprocal characteristics and pathways for future development.

The formation of the EU negotiating strategy at the UN: the case of human rights

Existing research on the European Union’s (EU) activities at the international level typically pertains to how the EU acts, bargains and performs. However, scholarship less frequently examines how the EU formulates its negotiating strategy at international negotiation fora. Our analysis attempts to fill this gap by presenting an analytical framework to map the different features and parameters that determine and condition the EU negotiating strategy in multilateral contexts. We identify four features in two phases that shape the EU negotiating strategy: (a) goal-setting, (b) field analysis, (c) available means and (d) employed tactics. Each of these features contains additional parameters that, overall, define and constrain the EU’s negotiating strategy. To test the relevance of our analytical framework, we delve into the determination of the EU human rights negotiating strategy at the United Nations.

Japan–Australia security cooperation in the bilateral and multilateral contexts

Japan–Australia security cooperation in the bilateral and multilateral contexts

Sveriges relationer med Ryssland: kontinuitet och förändring historiskt och idag

Relations between Sweden and Russia have historically been characterized by continuity and stability, despite occasional periods of friction. On the one hand, Sweden and Russia have a more active bilateral agenda than what is usually recognized, primarily in the areas of trade, investments and cultural and educational exchanges. On the other hand, there are several issues – like the Ukraine conflict, the EU Eastern Partnership, Swedish NATO cooperation and the security situation in the Baltic Sea area – involving competing claims and interests between Sweden and Russia. Further, Swedish foreign policy since the 1990s has been framed within a multilateral context, and that has a bearing on Swedish–Russian relations as well. This situation is likely to continue, unless dramatic changes occur in the political relations between Russia and the Western powers.

Australia’s relationship with the European Union: from conflict to cooperation

ABSTRACTAfter decades of tension, Australia and the European Union (EU) now have a substantive relationship, interacting and cooperating with each other within a wide range of areas. The relationship is currently at a critical turning point. The Framework Agreement has, for the first time, elevated the relationship to a treaty level. It strengthens Australia–EU actions and interests on bilateral, regional and multilateral issues. There is considerable potential for closer cooperation and more extensive pooling of the resources and capacities of both interlocutors on a range of policies and within the multilateral context. This article provides an assessment of the relationship, the current state of play and key challenges facing the relationship as the EU and Australia forge stronger ties through the conclusion of a Framework Agreement and the commencement of discussions on a Free Trade Agreement at the same time as the UK’s exit negotiations from the EU. It demonstrates that, although there are challenges facing the relationship, there are also significant opportunities to further develop and strengthen ties.

Limiting or liberating? The influence of parliaments on military deployments in multinational settings

Multilateral contexts often complicate parliaments’ efforts to scrutinise and influence security policy, as parliaments usually work in a national setting. This article explores how the internationalisation of security policy has altered parliamentary constraints on executive decision-making. It focuses on cases where multilateral decision-making is particularly advanced and studies military deployments under the auspices of the European Union’s (EU’s) Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Using the examples of France, the United Kingdom and Germany, the article examines how the policy’s location at the intersection of decision-making on security and EU matters creates new opportunities for member state parliaments to scrutinise it. Yet, as an analysis of three CSDP military operations shows, these opportunities do not always translate into increased scrutiny practice and vary in line with factors such as national troop contributions, distinct political traditions and an operation’s salience.

From simple-minded MDGs to muddle-headed SDGs

ABSTRACTRespectable progress was made towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The challenge that remains is two-fold: environmental sustainability and high inequality. However, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), to be reached by 2030, dodge these challenges because the relevant targets lack precision and clarity. Agenda 2030 is not universal in scope because the few targets that are verifiable – those that contain conceptual clarity, numerical outcome and specific deadlines – apply primarily to developing countries. The omission of targets for overweight/obesity and breastfeeding exemplifies the reluctance of developed countries to commit themselves to specific, quantitative and time-bound targets. Most SDG targets that are verifiable are actually not dissimilar from the MDGs. They clearly constitute a difficult intergovernmental compromise, made increasingly arduous by the deepening North–South divide, a return of East-West tensions, and a resurging sense of nationalism in several member states. To a large extent, the context of weak multilateralism explains why the SDGs are not fit for purpose to address the dual challenge of environmental sustainability and high inequality. The article concludes by proposing two vital steps to help realize their transformative potential.

Civil society challenged: towards an enabling policy environment

Abstract The roles of non-governmental or civil society organizations have become more complex, especially in the context of changing relationships with nation states and the international community. In many instances, state-civil society relations have worsened, leading experts to speak of a “shrinking space” for civil society nationally as well as internationally. The author proposes to initiate a process for the establishment of an independent high-level commission of eminent persons (i) to examine the changing policy environment for civil society organizations in many countries as well as internationally, (ii) to review the reasons behind the shrinking space civil society encounters in some parts of the world and its steady development in others, and (iii) to make concrete proposals for how the state and the international system on the one hand and civil society on the other hand can relate in productive ways in national and multilateral contexts.

Agenda setting in multilateral contexts: the example of the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development

ABSTRACTA number of papers have focused on UN policy formulation processes, but little is known about how particular issues come to policy-makers’ attention in the first place. This very early stage of policy formulation, called agenda setting, remains under-researched and more so in multilateral contexts. Applying Kingdon’s multiple streams model to the example of the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (DESD), this study analyses the trajectory of the policy from being just an idea to the point of being placed on the UN agenda. This paper goes on to argue that there are three conditions that supported the successful trajectory of DESD: a funding-backed policy entrepreneur, policy oligopoly, and a highly predictable policy window. Its theoretical contribution is to fill the gap between current studies and theories by presenting an analysis of one policy in a multilateral context.

Koreas Language Studies Grammar Effect Relationship Analysis of the Chosun Language Textbooks as a High School Grammar Language Curriculum in the Intermediate Division Multilateral Context -Centered on Sentence Unit Grammar Education Contents

이 논문에서는 조선어문 선택 교과로서의 교과서와 남북한 문법교과서와의 비교 분석을 통해 조선어 문법 교과서에 나타난 남북한의 국어문법의 영향 관계를 파악해 보고자 한다. 이를 위해 조선어 고등 문법 교과서와 남북한 문법 교과서를 연구 대상으로 삼아 문장 단위 문법 교육 내용을 중심으로 비교분석하였다. 그 결과, 조선어 고등 교과서에 나타난 문장 단위 교육 내용 특징으로 1) 구어중심, 2) 의미 중심, 3) 양태 중심, 4) 문장 단위 중심을 들 수 있었다. 그러나 조선어 문법 교과서에 나타난 남북한의 국어 문법의 영향 관계를 파악하기 위해서는 이전의 교육과정 변화에 따라 문법 교과서 기술이 어떠한 방식으로 이루어져 왔는지에 대한 사적 고찰이 뒷받침될 필요가 있다. 이와 관련한 논의가 활성화될 수 있기를 기대해 본다.