Multi-scale Assessment Research Articles

Methodology of the multiscale assessment of geomorphological safety of seacoasts, on the example of the south-eastern Baltic coast

The article presents a methodological approach to assessing the geomorphological safety of sea coasts based on the close interdependence between geomorphological conditions and active coastal recreational activities. One of the key stages of the proposed assessment is recreational-geomorphological zoning, which results in separation of regions, districts and local areas in relation to relief homogeneity and recreational situation. The suggested approach is based on the quantitative indicators of the environment — conditions of relief formation and the geomorphological properties of the territory. Group of criteria for the situation of relief formation includes lithological, hydrometeorological, human and social factors. Among the group of geomorphological criteria are: morphometric characteristics of the coast, the dynamics of the coast and the activity of slope processes. Resultant geomorphological safety was classified into three classes: the most suitable areas for recreation; territories subject to further refinement; and inconvenience territories that cannot be used at all. The results of the geomorphological safety assessment are designed to increase the effectiveness of recreational environmental planning. The suggested principles of geomorphological assessment can be used not only for the Baltic region, but almost for any coastal region, which may require some correction of criteria.

VisualUVAM: A Decision Support System Addressing the Curse of Dimensionality for the Multi-Scale Assessment of Urban Vulnerability in Spain

Many-objective optimization methods have proven successful in the integration of research attributes demanded for urban vulnerability assessment models. However, these techniques suffer from the curse of the dimensionality problem, producing an excessive burden in the decision-making process by compelling decision-makers to select alternatives among a large number of candidates. In other fields, this problem has been alleviated through cluster analysis, but there is still a lack in the application of such methods for urban vulnerability assessment purposes. This work addresses this gap by a novel combination of visual analytics and cluster analysis, enabling the decision-maker to select the set of indicators best representing urban vulnerability accordingly to three criteria: expert’s preferences, goodness of fit, and robustness. Based on an assessment framework previously developed, VisualUVAM affords an evaluation of urban vulnerability in Spain at regional, provincial, and municipal scales, whose results demonstrate the effect of the governmental structure of a territory over the vulnerability of the assessed entities.

Multi-Scale Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Flooding: Evidence from Firm to Macro-Level Analysis in the Chinese Manufacturing Sector

We present an empirical study to systemically estimate flooding impacts, linking across scales from individual firms through to the macro levels in China. To this end, we combine a detailed firm-level econometric analysis of 399,356 firms with a macroeconomic input-output model to estimate flood impacts on China’s manufacturing sector over the period 2003–2010. We find that large flooding events on average reduce firm outputs (measured by labor productivity) by about 28.3% per year. Using an input-output analysis, we estimate the potential macroeconomic impact to be a 12.3% annual loss in total output, which amounts to 15,416 RMB billion. Impacts can propagate from manufacturing firms, which are the focus of our empirical analysis, through to other economic sectors that may not actually be located in floodplains but can still be affected by economic disruptions. Lagged flood effects over the following two years are estimated to be a further 5.4% at the firm level and their associated potential effects are at a 2.3% loss in total output or 2,486 RMB billion at the macro-level. These results indicate that the scale of economic impacts from flooding is much larger than microanalyses of direct damage indicate, thus justifying greater action, at a policy level and by individual firms, to manage flood risk.

Multi-scale assessment of eco-hydrological resilience to drought in China over the last three decades

Understanding to what extent can terrestrial ecosystems maintain their structure and functions and recover after being hit by drought is critical for sustainable ecosystem management and drought mitigation practices. This study assesses multi-scale (i.e., at grid, climate type, land use, basin, province scales) eco-hydrological resilience to drought over China during the period of 1982–2015, based on Standard Evapotranspiration Deficit Index as well as satellite-retrieved evapotranspiration (ET) and net primary production (NPP). Over the last three decades, the ecosystem water use efficiency (eWUE) increased in most regions of China (especially in Northeast China and North China Plain) in the context of climate change. The western China showed a significant wetting trend with ascending ET, GPP and eWUE. The SEDI and ET showed significantly increasing tendencies but the ecosystem GPP and eWUE did not exhibit obvious responses to regional wetting in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River basin. Most terrestrial ecosystems in China were found overall resilient to drought except for mild temperature-fully humid-warm summer at the climate type scale, water type at the land use scale, Northwest Rivers at the basin scale as well as Ningxia, Qinghai, Shanghai and Hong Kong at the province scale. These findings would facilitate the identification of most drought-vulnerable regions for ecosystem management and taking reasonable adaptation measures (e.g., use of alternative water resources or reuse water, water conservation and smart irrigation) to ensure the sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems during the drought periods over China.

Development of a measure of mental health stigma including police behaviors

Various stigmatizing notions are associated with mental illness, resulting in negative personal (e.g. employment discrimination) and societal (e.g. public treatment of the mentally ill as ‘dangerous’ and/or ‘criminal’) outcomes. This study develops and validates a new multi-scale assessment tool to assess several dimensions of mental illness stigma, including perceived dangerousness, self-care, social distance, treatment amenability and predicted police behavior. A total of 641 undergraduate students from various American universities completed the new stigma measure along with two other existing measures. The results indicate that the new stigma measure has an acceptable three-factor solution consisting of self-care, dangerousness and police behavior. The self-care and dangerousness factors were found to have concurrent validity with the corresponding scales of the existing measures. Future research involving different populations, as well as the policy implications of the new police behavior factor, are discussed.

Multi-scale assessment of post-fire tree mortality models

Post-fire tree mortality models are vital tools used by forest land managers to predict fire effects, estimate delayed mortality and develop management prescriptions. We evaluated the performance of mortality models within the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) software, and compared their performance to locally-parameterised models based on five different forms. We evaluated all models at the individual tree and stand levels with a dataset comprising 34174 trees from a mixed-conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada, California that burned in the 2013 Rim Fire. We compared stand-level accuracy across a range of spatial scales, and we used point pattern analysis to test the accuracy with which mortality models predict post-fire tree spatial pattern. FOFEM under-predicted mortality for the three conifers, possibly because of the timing of the Rim Fire during a severe multi-year drought. Locally-parameterised models based on crown scorch were most accurate in predicting individual tree mortality, but tree diameter-based models were more accurate at the stand level for Abies concolor and large-diameter Pinus lambertiana, the most abundant trees in this forest. Stand-level accuracy was reduced by spatially correlated error at small spatial scales, but stabilised at scales ≥1ha. The predictive error of FOFEM generated inaccurate predictions of post-fire spatial pattern at small scales, and this error could be reduced by improving FOFEM model accuracy for small trees.

Multi-scale assessment of mechanical properties of organic-rich shales: A coupled nanoindentation, deconvolution analysis, and homogenization method

The boom of unconventional shale plays has brought significant attention during the last decade to shale rocks. Elastic properties of shale are one of the most important parameters to be known for hydraulic fracturing success which is necessary for production from organic-rich unconventional reservoirs. In this study, we combined experimental methods including, XRD, Rock-Eval, and nanoindentation on eight Bakken Shale samples with various thermal maturity, taken from different wells and depths in the Williston Basin, ND, to examine their mineralogy, and geochemistry with the emphasis on variations on the elastic properties. Expectation Maximization (EM) based statistical deconvolution was applied to the nanoindentation modulus data to distinguish individual mechanical phases. Then homogenization method was used to upscale the elastic properties to macro-scale, and the data were compared with the values reported in the literature. The results showed that the elastic properties of individual mechanical phases could be distinguished and evaluated through a statistical deconvolution approach. Three main mechanical phases were recognized for each shale sample. It was found that homogenized samples have Young's modulus values in the range of 18.2 GPa–38.8 GPa, which were consistent with the range of mechanical property values of the Bakken Shales reported in the literature. Correlative relationship analysis between mineralogy and thermal maturity with elastic properties showed that Young's modulus decreases with increasing TOC content and increases with the increasing maturity.

Solidification–Stabilization of Heavy Metal–Contaminated Clays Using Gypsum: Multiscale Assessment

Solidification–Stabilization of Heavy Metal–Contaminated Clays Using Gypsum: Multiscale Assessment

Earth observation based multi-scale assessment of logging activities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Congo rainforest, known for its high biodiversity and valuable resources, is the second largest area of rainforest in the world. Two thirds of the forest cover of the basin is located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Despite the importance, deforestation continues recognizing a connection between forests, logging and conflict. Increasing demand for resources, population growth and environmental stresses including climate change, will likely compound these problems. At the same time, conflicts cause serious environmental impacts, which need to be addressed to protect health and livelihoods. The risk that armed groups become involved in timber and mineral trades, that revenues be misappropriated and that forest-dependent communities are being pushed off their land also presents considerable threats to the peacebuilding process.The present study investigates the applicability of a multi-scale approach combining pixel- and object-based images analysis methods for the assessment of different logging activities in the context of conflict in the DRC. Optical high and very high resolution satellite imagery from 2000 to 2014 are analyzed within three different districts characterizing specific logging activities. As a major result one can clearly distinguish these activities and link them to the specific situation in the respective region. In the case of Ituri district logging is directly related to the conflict situation and increasing population pressure. While the slash-and-burn activities in Tshopo seems to be stable and show only minor decrease of primary forest, industrial-scale logging in the Mongala district has degraded a significant amount of primary forest into secondary forest or bare soil.

Ecological network analysis on intra-city metabolism of functional urban areas in England and Wales

The UK has one of the world’s most urbanised societies where nearly 83% of the total population lives in cities. The continuing population growth could lead to increases in environmental pollutions and congestion within cities. The framework of urban metabolism uses an analogy between cities and ecosystems to study the metabolic processes within complex urban systems akin to natural biological systems. It remains as a challenge to fully understand the complicated distribution of resource flows within an urban network. In this paper, Ecological Network Analysis was applied to study the intra-city flows between economic sectors in 35 functional urban areas in order to investigate their respective metabolic relationships. The intra-city flows network of each area was also supplemented with the geographical distance between the workplace zones to study the impacts of spatial distribution on the density of resource flows. The metabolic systems were dominated by 64% of exploitative relationships with an average mutualism index of 0.93 and synergism index of 3.56 across all 35 areas. The consumption-control and production-dependency relationships revealed the hierarchical orders among the sectors resembling the pyramidal structure of an urban ecosystem. Network community classification emphasized the importance of inter-relationship within the organisation of each community class. The producer-type and consumer-type communities showed the tendencies of those sectors to cluster based on their respective hierarchical roles in the ecosystem. This work provides an insight into the wide range of intra-city ecological metabolic characteristics which can potentially expand to a multi-scale assessment of urban metabolism across the country.

Assessing the multi-scale predictive ability of ecosystem functional attributes for species distribution modelling.

Global environmental changes are rapidly affecting species’ distributions and habitat suitability worldwide, requiring a continuous update of biodiversity status to support effective decisions on conservation policy and management. In this regard, satellite-derived Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) offer a more integrative and quicker evaluation of ecosystem responses to environmental drivers and changes than climate and structural or compositional landscape attributes. Thus, EFAs may hold advantages as predictors in Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and for implementing multi-scale species monitoring programs. Here we describe a modelling framework to assess the predictive ability of EFAs as Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) against traditional datasets (climate, land-cover) at several scales. We test the framework with a multi-scale assessment of habitat suitability for two plant species of conservation concern, both protected under the EU Habitats Directive, differing in terms of life history, range and distribution pattern (Iris boissieri and Taxus baccata). We fitted four sets of SDMs for the two test species, calibrated with: interpolated climate variables; landscape variables; EFAs; and a combination of climate and landscape variables. EFA-based models performed very well at the several scales (AUCmedian from 0.881±0.072 to 0.983±0.125), and similarly to traditional climate-based models, individually or in combination with land-cover predictors (AUCmedian from 0.882±0.059 to 0.995±0.083). Moreover, EFA-based models identified additional suitable areas and provided valuable information on functional features of habitat suitability for both test species (narrowly vs. widely distributed), for both coarse and fine scales. Our results suggest a relatively small scale-dependence of the predictive ability of satellite-derived EFAs, supporting their use as meaningful EBVs in SDMs from regional and broader scales to more local and finer scales. Since the evaluation of species’ conservation status and habitat quality should as far as possible be performed based on scalable indicators linking to meaningful processes, our framework may guide conservation managers in decision-making related to biodiversity monitoring and reporting schemes.

Thermodynamics, kinetics, and mechanics of cesium sorption in cement paste: A multiscale assessment

Cesium-137 is a common radioactive byproduct found in nuclear spent fuel. Given its 30 year half life, its interactions with potential storage materials---such as cement paste---is of crucial importance. In this paper, simulations are used to establish the interaction of calcium silicate hydrates (C-S-H)---the main binding phase of cement paste---with Cs at the nano- and mesoscale. Different C-S-H compositions are explored, including a range of Ca/Si ratios from 1.0 to 2.0. These calculations are based on a set of 150 atomistic models, which qualitatively and quantitatively reproduce a number of experimentally measured features of C-S-H---within limits intrinsic to the approximations imposed by classical molecular dynamics and the steps followed when building the models. A procedure where hydrated ${\mathrm{Ca}}^{2+}$ ions are swapped for ${\mathrm{Cs}}^{1+}$ ions shows that Cs adsorption in the C-S-H interlayer is preferred to Cs adsorption at the nanopore surface when Cs concentrations are lower than 0.19 Mol/kg. Interlayer sorption decreases as the Ca/Si ratio increases. The activation relaxation technique nouveau is used to access timescales out of the reach of traditional molecular dynamics (MD). It indicates that characteristic diffusion time for ${\mathrm{Cs}}^{1+}$ in the C-S-H interlayer is on the order of a few hours. Cs uptake in the interlayer has little impact on the elastic response of C-S-H. It leads to swelling of the C-S-H grains, but mesoscale calculations that access length scales out of the range of MD indicate that this leads to practically negligible expansive pressures for Cs concentrations relevant to nuclear waste repositories.

Monitoring flood and drought events - earth observation for multiscale assessment of water-related hazards and exposed elements

Disaster management is dependent on comprehensive information about the hazard’s nature and the elements exposed – independent of the location and extent of the hazard. This work explores methods to monitor water-related hazards and identify exposed elements based on multisensorial earth observation (EO) and auxiliary data in southern Africa. For the hazard-related perspective, we present methods to monitor fl oods based on radar data (Sentinel-1, TerraSAR-X) and droughts based on time series MODIS satellite data. For the exposure-related perspective, we classify exposed settlements from TerraSAR-X (TSX) and TanDEM-X (TDX) data. We assess people at risk and their respective locations, combining earth observation and census-based geoinformation. The datasets and methods are explored in two case studies investigating a flood in northern Namibia in 2011 and drought events in South Africa and Botswana in 2015 and 2016. The case studies show that the methods developed are crucial tools for hazard and exposure identification, assessment, and monitoring.

A multiscale assessment protocol to quantify effects of restoration works on alluvial vegetation communities

Vegetation mapping is a legal obligation in environmental monitoring prompting the need for easy-to-read methods of quantifying changes in vegetation dynamics. Transition matrix modelling provides an alternative approach to qualitative assessment promoting quantification for revealing current complex changes effects on the trajectory of ecosystems. Transition matrix models (TMMs) and two newly developed metrics, the pixel change (PCI) and zonal change (ZCI) indices, were combined into a methodological scheme that provides a multiscale assessment protocol. This protocol was applied during a field study along the Old Rhine River in order to assess complex shifts in alluvial vegetation communities in relation to restoration works and natural processes. The restoration works aim to restore lateral mobility through instream flow increase and controlled bank erosion with artificial groynes implementation. Characterisation of spatial and temporal pathways was carried out using a ‘before-after control-impact’ (BACI) design, and a fuzzy coding approach has shed further light on shifts in aquatic vegetation functional traits. The multiscale assessment protocol highlighted (i) an increase in alluvial habitat types, including habitats of European concern (Natura 2000), and (ii) low time-scale aquatic vegetation recovery. Both ZCI and PCI recorded high values along the restored section with controlled bank erosion, indicating strong ecosystem change. Use of functional traits detected three requirements for the successful establishment of aquatic vegetation in the restored river section, i.e. high degree of flexibility, flow variation tolerance, and fine-sediment adaptability. Subject to the reliability and availability of vegetation mapping, the method opens the possibility of an efficient tool for precisely monitoring alluvial vegetation communities and identifying pathways. It also discriminates event effects, e.g. natural process effects vs. human-induced effects. At full potential, such a protocol may reveal community responses to disturbance during conservation, restoration and management decision-making projects.

Multi-scale research of time and space differences about ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the water resources

A multi-scale assessment framework for assessing and comparing the water resource sustainability based on the ecological footprint (EF) is introduced. The study aims to manage the water resource from different views in Heilongjiang Province. First of all, from the scale of each city, the water ecological carrying capacity (ECC) was calculated from 2000 to 2011, and map the spatial distribution of the recent 3 years which show that, the water ecological carrying capacity (ECC) is uneven and has a downward trend year by year. Then, from the perspective of the five secondary partition basins in Heilongjiang Province, the paper calculated the ecological carrying capacity (ECC), the ecological footprint (EF) and ecological surplus and deficit (S&D) situation of water resources from 2000 to 2011, which show that the ecological deficit situation is more prominent in Nenjiang and Suifenhe basins which are in an unsustainable development state. Finally, from the perspective of the province, the paper calculated the ecological carrying capacity (ECC), the ecological footprint (EF) and ecological S&D of water resources from 2000 to 2011 in Heilongjiang Province, which show that the ecological footprint (EF) is in the rising trend, and the correlation coefficient between the ecological carrying capacity (ECC) and the precipitation is 0.8. There are 5 years of unsustainable development state in Heilongjiang. The proposed multi-scale assessment of WEF aims to evaluate the complex relationship between water resource supply and consumption in different spatial scales and time series. It also provides more reasonable assessment result which can be used by managers and regulators.

Multi-scale urban data models for early-stage suitability assessment of energy conservation measures in historic urban areas

The demand for improving the energy performance of buildings located in the historic districts of cities is as high as the current demand in other city districts. The need to reduce energy consumption and improve the comfort of inhabitants is compounded by the need to preserve an environment of heritage value. The selection of rehabilitation strategies at urban scale offers significant benefits, but makes the process long and costly. Therefore, methods or tools are necessary to establish a rapid assessment that facilitates strategic decision making and a deeper analysis of a reduced number of alternatives.This paper describes a method that supports decision making regarding the suitability of Energy Conservation Measures (ECMs) in historic districts at early stages. The method considers the improvement of the energy performance of buildings as a positive impact, balanced with the negative impacts that the implementation of ECMs could produce. A CityGML-based urban model allows the automation of a multi-scale assessment for different ECMs and provides possible global energy demand reductions. This method, combined with an economic evaluation, can be used by decision makers for large-scale energy retrofitting. The applicability of the method is demonstrated through implementation in the historic city of Santiago de Compostela.

The Australian industrial ecology virtual laboratory and multi-scale assessment of buildings and construction

As global population and urbanization increase, so do the direct and indirect environmental impacts of construction around the world. Low-impact products, buildings, precincts and cities are needed to mitigate the effects of building construction and use. Analysis of embodied energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across these scales is becoming more important to support this direction. The calculation of embodied impacts requires rigorous, flexible and comprehensive assessment tools. Firstly, we present the Australian Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory (IELab) as one such tool discussing its structure, function and wide scope of application. Secondly, we demonstrate its potential high level of resolution in a case study: assessing embodied GHG emissions in an aluminium-framed window by combining product-specific life-cycle inventory data. The input-output analysis at the core of the IELab is mathematically comprehensive in the assessment of direct and indirect impacts and the tool can be applied at a range of scales from building component, to precincts and cities, or to the entire construction industry. IELab uses a flexible formalism that enables consistent harmonisation of diverse datasets and tractable updating of input data. The emissions and energy database supporting IELab has detailed data, aligning with economic accounts and data on labour, water, materials and waste that enrich assessment across other dimensions of sustainability. IELab is a comprehensive, flexible and robust assessment tool well positioned to respond to the challenge of assessing and aiding the design of a low-impact built environment.

Multi-scale assessment of social vulnerability to climate change: An empirical study in coastal Vietnam

Climate change poses significant threats to the livelihoods of people living in coastal areas, especially in the developing world. There is a critical need to assess vulnerability to inform both scientific debates and policy makers in facilitating adaptation and coping strategies at different scales. This study advances existing approaches to assessing vulnerability by focusing on both household and collective scales in a coastal district in Vietnam: Ngu Hanh Son district. A mixed-method approach was used including 100 household questionnaires, 12 key informant interviews and data from direct observations. At household scale, results indicate large variation in the degree of vulnerability to climate change among households in the same agro-climate zone. These differences are attributable to variations in socio-economic household characteristics and ability to access livelihood assets. Diversifying livelihoods and reducing poverty are important in contributing to the resilience of households. At a collective scale, qualitative data indicates a lack of multi-directional flows of information and highlights gaps in the current governance system. Findings suggest the need to bridge the governance gaps and establish an effective communication system to reduce collective vulnerability in the district. Findings also highlight the need to promote social equity, equality and democracy in formulating climate policies in an effort to reduce the overall vulnerability to climate change.

Commentary: Forest Cover Is Critical for Biodiversity Conservation in Tropical Livestock-Dominated Landscapes

Balancing meat production and biodiversity conservation is a major challenge. To address this challenge, we must understand the independent effects of land-use change and production practices on biodiversity across spatial scales. A key question is whether biodiversity will benefit more from habitats embedded in farmland (“land sharing”) or preserved elsewhere (“land sparing”). Our multiscale assessment of dung beetle communities in livestock-dominated landscapes from the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, supports the latter strategy. New results from phylogenetic analyses and unpublished results from dung removal experiments also highlight the importance of forest cover for preserving dung beetles and their key ecological roles. Both landscape-scale forest cover and macrocyclic lactones (commonly used veterinary drugs) shape dung beetle communities in the Yucatan Peninsula, thus suggesting that a land sparing approach, which maximizes forest protection, may minimize the damage of beef production to biodiversity. However, maximizing yields through macrocyclic lactone use will likely reduce on-farm ecosystem service provision. These surprising results have important implications for the conservation of biodiversity and ecological functions, as they suggest that the best strategies for conserving biodiversity may differ from those focused on delivering ecosystem services. We must therefore consider factors other than just food production and biodiversity conservation when designing land-use strategies.

Multi-scale assessment of cultural ecosystem services of parks in Central European cities

Cultural ecosystem services (CES) provided by urban parks are complex phenomena and the diversity of user perspectives and their rather loose linkages to the objective and structural diversity of parks hamper informed planning. Stakeholder involvement in CES assessment has received little systematic attention and only few studies provide examples of the actual application of CES demand indicators or maps in policy and practice. In this context, we focus on physical use of landscapes in different environmental settings, aesthetic and existence ecosystem services. We seek to extend research on cultural urban ecosystem services of parks by 1) assessing their demand and flows as reflected in visitor perception and behaviors, 2) using accessibility as metrics that can be included in multi-scale (city and neighborhood) indicators that characterize distribution of urban green spaces’ benefits in cities, and finally 3) identifying and understanding similarities and dissimilarities by a cross-city Central European approach. The cross-city comparative study in Central Europe reveals striking similarities. Respondents visit parks mainly to relax and rest as well as for pleasure and social activities. While parks tend to meet these demands well, the most pronounced mismatches are in the field of educational potential. The ecosystem service capacities of parks have different strengths in attracting visitors and in some cases this effect can be stronger than simple inconvenience in accessibility and distance. We add to the literature by explicitly involving park visitors as stakeholders in the assessment of cultural ecosystem services’ delivery as mirrored in park visitor surveys. We propose a method that translates human needs, behaviors and perception into the CES approach. The indicator-based approach developed here supports understanding patterns in park use, cultural ecosystem services and their meaning at the site scale that can inform resilience planning at the district and city-wide scales.