Multiregional Model Research Articles

FORENSIC DNA PHENOTYPING FOR CRIMINAL IDENTIFICATION

The purpose of the work – to carry out an analysis of modern achievements andpossibilities of forensic DNA phenotyping to determine the external characteristics ofa person, his biogeographical origin and age in order to facilitate criminal investigations.Conclusions. Forensic DNA Phenotyping (FDP) involves the prediction of a person’sexternal characteristics regarding appearance, biogeographic origin, and age based onDNA samples from a crime scene to support investigations and help to find unknowncriminals who cannot be identified through forensic STR profiling.DNA-based appearance prediction has moved beyond eye, hair and skin color andincluded new features such as eyebrow color, freckles, hair structure, male pattern hairloss and height. DNA-based biogeographic inference of ancestry has progressed fromcontinental ancestry to detecting subcontinental ancestry and resolving models of commonancestry in genetically mixed individuals. DNA-based age estimation is now possible notonly through blood testing, but also through somatic tissues such as saliva and bone, aswell as new markers and tools for analyzing semen. Technological advances have madeit possible to use forensic DNA technology with greatly increased multiplexing capabilityto simultaneously analyze hundreds of DNA predictors using targeted massively parallelsequencing (MPS). Forensically validated MPS-based FDP tools for DNA-based crimescene prediction are used to identify: several features of appearance; multiregional origin;several appearance features together with multiregional origin; age by different tissue types. Despite recent advances that are likely to increase the impact of FDP in criminal casesin the near future, bringing reliable prediction of appearance, ancestry, and age fromcrime scene DNA to the level of detail and accuracy, that forensic scientists may desire,requires further intensive scientific research, along with technical developments andforensic validation.

A preoperative radiogenomic model based on quantitative heterogeneity for predicting outcomes in triple-negative breast cancer patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy

BackgroundTriple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is highly heterogeneous, resulting in different responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and prognoses among patients. This study sought to characterize the heterogeneity of TNBC on MRI and develop a radiogenomic model for predicting both pathological complete response (pCR) and prognosis.Materials and methodsIn this retrospective study, TNBC patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy at Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center were enrolled as the radiomic development cohort (n = 315); among these patients, those whose genetic data were available were enrolled as the radiogenomic development cohort (n = 98). The study population of the two cohorts was randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3. The external validation cohort (n = 77) included patients from the DUKE and I-SPY 1 databases. Spatial heterogeneity was characterized using features from the intratumoral subregions and peritumoral region. Hemodynamic heterogeneity was characterized by kinetic features from the tumor body. Three radiomics models were developed by logistic regression after selecting features. Model 1 included subregional and peritumoral features, Model 2 included kinetic features, and Model 3 integrated the features of Model 1 and Model 2. Two fusion models were developed by further integrating pathological and genomic features (PRM: pathology-radiomics model; GPRM: genomics-pathology-radiomics model). Model performance was assessed with the AUC and decision curve analysis. Prognostic implications were assessed with Kaplan‒Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression.ResultsAmong the radiomic models, the multiregional model representing multiscale heterogeneity (Model 3) exhibited better pCR prediction, with AUCs of 0.87, 0.79, and 0.78 in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets, respectively. The GPRM showed the best performance for predicting pCR in the training (AUC = 0.97, P = 0.015) and validation sets (AUC = 0.93, P = 0.019). Model 3, PRM and GPRM could stratify patients by disease-free survival, and a predicted nonpCR was associated with poor prognosis (P = 0.034, 0.001 and 0.019, respectively).ConclusionMultiscale heterogeneity characterized by DCE-MRI could effectively predict the pCR and prognosis of TNBC patients. The radiogenomic model could serve as a valuable biomarker to improve the prediction performance.

Three-dimensional numerical simulation and theoretical model of a hollow droplet impacting on a solid surface

The phenomenon of a hollow droplet impacting on a solid surface is widely found in various fields. The dynamic characteristics of hollow diesel droplets impacting on a solid surface are studied by combining numerical simulation and theoretical analysis. The dynamic contact angle model presented in this paper couples the advantages of existing dynamic contact angle models for simulating both the spreading and retracting stages. It also considers the continuous variation of the contact angle during the maximum spreading state. Compared to existing models, the maximum error has been reduced from 14.9% to 4.6%. The effects of impact velocity, impact angle, and volume ratio of a hollow droplet on the spreading and jetting characteristics are investigated by three-dimensional numerical simulations. It is found that air entrainment occurred in the counter-jet, and the presence of the impact angle increased the asymmetry of the counter-jet and spreading liquid film, promoting fingerlike splashing at the front liquid film. Based on energy conservation law, the theoretical prediction models of the maximum spreading coefficient of the hollow droplet impacting on the surface and the velocity of the counter-jet at the maximum spreading state are established using the multi-regional modeling method and the energy distribution principle. Compared with existing hollow droplet theoretical models, the proposed theoretical models exhibit a more concise expression, higher accuracy, and wider applicability range.

Old but gold: The use of multiregional life tables and the place-of-birth-dependent approach for studying recent internal migration in Italy

There has been a significant shift in migratory behavior within Italy over time. The origins and destinations of the migration flows, which were previously characterized by a clear prevalence of moving from the south to the center-north, are now much more heterogeneous and complex. Despite the important progress achieved in the past 20 years, the measurement of internal migration remains a contentious topic in international research. Using data provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, we applied Rogers’ multiregional model place-of-birth-dependent approach to assess the internal migration flows that occurred in Italy in the period 2002 – 2013. This approach provides accurate measurements of internal migration, noting in particular the years of life expectancy for each birth cohort living in each geographical Italian macroregion (northeast, northwest, center, and south). The results indicate that the northwest is the main area of destination for internal migration. The birth cohort in the south is the one that has the greatest number of years of life expectancy in other macroregions. Interestingly, this cohort is the only one characterized by a predominantly male migratory model.

Multiregional Models of Economic Interactions: Comparative Analysis

Multiregional Models of Economic Interactions: Comparative Analysis

Feasibility study of developing hollow-core vacuum insulated panels

Super-insulation materials have become more commonplace as highly insulated building envelopes are required to reduce the energy demand of buildings aligned with the net zero targets. While several super insulation materials are available, their environmental impacts and practical on-site limitations hindered their large-scale adoption. The following paper investigates the feasibility of developing hollow-core vacuum insulated panels supported by an internal structural array with different configurations. The designed panel was simulated and measured to evaluate its performance as a thermal insulator for building applications. Panel samples were manufactured from polished stainless-steel plates separated by a PTFE structural array. The change in temperature and heat flux through the sample was measured in a vacuum chamber at a pressure of 0.01 Pa. Thermal conductance was obtained from gradual measurements of heat flux and temperature across the sample after a rapid increase in temperature. Numerical methods that combine molecular and macroscopic solvers were used to model unsteady behaviour recorded in empirical tests. Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) was used to calculate the thermal conductivity of the rarefied gas, which was then used to solve the enthalpy equation for the multi-region model. Thermal resistance from empirical tests and numerical methods are in agreement within error bands, the greatest accuracy observed in high conductance models. Thermal resistance as low as 0.17 [Formula: see text] and as high as 4.75[Formula: see text] was measured. Low conductance sample configurations were sensitive to thermal contact conductance from the structural array contact interfaces, accounting for at least 40% of transferred energy. Gas conduction at a pressure of 0.01 Pa transfers up to 4% of energy in low emissivity sample configurations. Radiative energy transfer in high conductance configurations was responsible for up to 95% of transferred energy. The paper provides a comprehensive feasibility study, providing a solid foundation for further design optimization of the technology.

Optimal Infrastructure after Trade Reform in India

Lower tariffs typically raise productivity, production, and trade, increasing the benefits from building infrastructure. Infrastructure spending by governments should therefore increase after countries open up to trade. I test this hypothesis empirically using a trade reform in India and find that a 1 percentage point reduction in tariffs increased states’ infrastructure spending by 0.5% between 1991 and 2001. To understand the mechanisms behind my empirical findings, I develop and calibrate a multi-region model of international trade, private capital accumulation, and infrastructure spending, in which each government chooses such spending to maximize their state’s welfare. I find if governments choose infrastructure following the reform optimally, infrastructure would have increased by 60% on average. The actual increase, based on my empirical findings, was about 29%. Counterfactual exercises show that raising aggregate infrastructure towards its optimal following the trade reform will result in state GDP to increase by 7% points on average.

The role of hydrogen in a decarbonised future transport sector: A case study of Mexico

In recent years, several approaches and pathways have been discussed to decarbonise the transport sector; however, any effort to reduce emissions might be complex due to specific socio-economic and technical characteristics of different regions. In Mexico, the transport sector is the highest energy consumer, representing 38.9% of the national final energy demand, with gasoline and diesel representing 90% of the sector´s total fuel consumption. Energy systems models are powerful tools to obtain insights into decarbonisation pathways to understand costs, emissions and rate of deployment that could serve for energy policy development. This paper focuses on the modelling of the current Mexican transport system using the MUSE-MX multi-regional model with the aim to project a decarbonisation pathway through two different scenarios. The first approach being business as usual (BAU) which aims to analyse current policies implementation and the second being a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Under the considered net zero scenario, results show potential deployment of hydrogen-based transport technologies, especially for subsectors such as lorries (100% H2 by 2050) and freight train (25% H2 by 2050), while cars and buses tend to full electrification by 2050.

A Hyperbolic Bid Stack Approach to Electricity Price Modelling

Modelling the energy price in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) requires features that are not well reflected in existing models. We present a semi-structural, multi-regional model wherein bidding is not required to be cost-based, renewable fuels and storage technology are structurally integrated, and network constraints are often binding in optimal dispatch. Available fuel capacity then does not necessarily sum to registered bid capacity, as-bid fuel costs do not dependably follow input fuel prices, and cross-regional interconnectedness requires modelling trade. Furthermore, modelling the NEM spot price path must admit price negativity and price spikes. Extending previous work in the literature, the present paper proposes a hyperbolic bid stack approach to price modelling under these conditions.

The importance of gene flow in human evolution

By the latter half of the 20th century, there were three dominant models of human evolution. All three accepted an African origin of humans at the Homo erectus stage, with H. erectus expanding out of Africa and colonizing Eurasia near the beginning of the Pleistocene. The candelabra model had H. erectus splitting into mostly isolated geographical lineages that independently evolved into the modern African, European and Asian “races”. The out-of-Africa replacement model starts out like the candelabra model, but then posits that Homo sapiens first evolved in Africa and then expanded out of Africa in the late Pleistocene and replaced all of the archaic Eurasian populations without interbreeding with them. Neither of these models assign an important role to gene flow (genetic interchange). In contrast, the multiregional model regarded the human populations in Africa and Eurasia as experiencing gene flow throughout the Pleistocene and evolving as a single human lineage with some local differentiation. Studies on mitochondrial DNA in the 1980’s claimed to support the out-of-Africa replacement model and to falsify both the candelabra and multiregional models by mistakenly equating the two. In fact, the mitochondrial DNA studies were fully compatible with both the replacement and multiregional models. The first statistically significant discrimination between these two models appeared in 2002 and revealed a hybrid model in which there was a mid-Pleistocene and a late Pleistocene expansion of humans out of Africa that resulted in limited genetic interchange with Eurasians rather than complete replacement. Moreover, significant gene flow and population movements led to genetic interchange throughout the mid-Pleistocene to the present. Studies on genomic data and ancient DNA have strongly confirmed these inferences. Moreover, our modern species of humans was forged in an African multiregional metapopulation rather than arising from one local area of Africa. Thus, gene flow has played a dominant role in human evolution since the mid-Pleistocene whereas splits and isolation have not. This undercuts the idea that human races are biologically real categories or separate branches on an evolutionary tree.

The emergence and distribution of early modern human in Indonesia

How did early Anatomically Modern Human (Homo sapiens sapiens) appear on earth and then spread rapidly across the globe to the present day? There are two main stages of Homo sapiens’ evolution: (1) the archaic Homo sapiens lived since their initial appearance up to 150,000 years ago, and (2) anatomically modern Homo sapiens from 150,000 years ago to the present. The multiregional model argues there was a gradual and continuous evolutionary process from Homo erectus to Homo sapiens in every region of Africa and Eurasia. In contrast the “Out of Africa” evolutionary model, known as the “replacement” theory argued that the genetic roots of Homo sapiens were around 150,000 to 100,000 years ago originated from one place in Africa, and spread out in different directions, flourished, and replaced local archaic populations. This paper will discuss the presence of early anatomically modern human remains in Southeast Asia including Indonesia from around the second half of the Upper Pleistocene including Wajak man, Lida Ajer and Punung remains, also Flores hominin.

The green quality of urban spatial development: A multi-dimensional and multi-regional model using big data

Spatial development involves multi-dimensional and multi-regional objectives that might be competing, while few studies have examined these issues simultaneously. We proposed a comprehensive model to assess the green quality of urban spatial development (GQUSD), focusing on the synergy of multi-dimensional objectives and the balance of multi-regional interests. The metropolitan city of Hangzhou was taken as an example. We included land consumption, vegetation loss and infrastructure cost as the inputs and the density of production and living activities as the outputs of spatial development. We developed a categorical Data Envelope Analysis (DEA) using geospatial big data and stratified optimization to evaluate the synergy of inputs-outputs at the finer level of spatial grids. Resultsshow a “sandwich” structure of the GQUSD in Hangzhou when considering green space and vegetation loss, and characterize four spatial typologies of agglomerated development, limited development, blinded development and low-potential development through the Bivariate Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) analysis. The “sandwich” structure is shaped by spatial processes of socio-economic agglomeration, industrial-driven sprawl, new-town development and suburbanization of high-end sectors. We also find green inequality in the spatial development of Hangzhou where vegetation costs were higher in manufactural industrial sites and low-income communities. We provide urban planning strategies to balance competing interests across regions, objectives, functions and communities for green growth and sustainable goals.

Multiregional radiomic model for breast cancer diagnosis: value of ultrasound-based peritumoral and parenchymal radiomics.

Breast cancer consists not only of neoplastic cells but also of significant changes in the surrounding and parenchymal stroma, which can be reflected in radiomics. This study aimed to perform breast lesion classification through an ultrasound-based multiregional (intratumoral, peritumoral, and parenchymal) radiomic model. We retrospectively reviewed ultrasound images of breast lesions from institution #1 (n=485) and institution #2 (n=106). Radiomic features were extracted from different regions (intratumoral, peritumoral, and ipsilateral breast parenchymal) and selected to train the random forest classifier with the training cohort (n=339, a subset of the institution #1 dataset). Then, the intratumoral, peritumoral, and parenchymal, intratumoral & peritumoral (In&Peri), intratumoral & parenchymal (In&P), and intratumoral & peritumoral & parenchymal (In&Peri&P) models were developed and validated on the internal (n=146, another subset of institution 1) and external (n=106, institution #2 dataset) test cohorts. Discrimination was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). Calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test assessed calibration. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) was used to assess performance improvement. The performance of the In&Peri (AUC values 0.892 and 0.866), In&P (0.866 and 0.863), and In&Peri&P (0.929 and 0.911) models was significantly better than that of the intratumoral model (0.849 and 0.838) in the internal and external test cohorts (IDI test, all P<0.05). The intratumoral, In&Peri and In&Peri&P models showed good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, all P>0.05). The multiregional (In&Peri&P) model had the highest discrimination among the 6 radiomic models in the test cohorts, respectively. The multiregional model combining radiomic information of intratumoral, peritumoral, and ipsilateral parenchymal regions yielded better performance than the intratumoral model in distinguishing malignant breast lesions from benign lesions.

A multi-annulus heat conduction model for predicting the peak temperature of nuclear fuels with randomly dispersed TRISO particles

The conventional homogenous heat conduction model is capable to calculate the average temperature of the FCM fuels with randomly distributed TRISO particles. However, it is not able to predict the peak temperature due to the dispersed internal heat sources. As a complement of the conventional homogenous model, a Multi-annulus heat conduction model is proposed to capture the peak temperature for the FCM fuels. In this model, the FCM fuel pellet is divide into several annular regions and each annulus region consists of two parts: annular matrix subregion and annular fuel subregion. Then the heat transfer in the FCM fuels is simplified to a one-dimensional heat conduction model. It is found that the peak temperature by the Multi-annulus model is very close to that by the Multi-region model, in which the three-dimensional heat transfer in the randomly distributed TRISO fuel particles is completely solved. The number of the annular regions greatly affects the peak temperature. The Multi-annulus heat conduction model with 9 annular regions is recommended for predicting the peak temperature when the packing fraction is in the range of 0.35–0.45. This work could assist the thermal and safety design of the nuclear reactors with FCM fuels.

The development of ideas about a recent African origin for Homo sapiens.

In this contribution I will review the development of ideas about a recent African origin for our species over the last 50 years, starting from the time of my PhD in the early 1970s. I will examine the instructive and quite different interpretations placed on the 1979 discovery of a partial Neanderthal skeleton associated with a Châtelperronian industry at the rock shelter of St-Césaire in France, and then focus on the crucial years from 1987-1989, including the so-called 'Human Revolution' conference of 1987, and my 1988 Science paper with Peter Andrews: 'Genetic and Fossil Evidence for the Origin of Modern Humans'. Following the historical review, I will assess the status of five proposed models for the evolution of derived Homo sapiens: Recent African Origin (RAO); RAO and Hybridisation (RAOH); Assimilation (AM); Multiregional Evolution (MRE); and Braided Stream (BS). I conclude that a recent African origin model with hybridization (RAOH) is the best supported from the fossil and genetic evidence.

A Realistic Multiregion Mouse Kidney Dosimetry Model to Support the Preclinical Evaluation of Potential Nephrotoxicity of Radiopharmaceutical Therapy.

Suborgan absorbed dose estimates in mouse kidneys are crucial to support preclinical nephrotoxicity analyses of α- and β-particle-emitting radioligands exhibiting a heterogeneous activity distribution in the kidneys. This is, however, limited by the scarcity of reference dose factors (S values) available in the literature for specific mouse kidney tissues. Methods: A computational multiregion model of a mouse kidney based on high-resolution MRI data from a healthy mouse kidney was developed. The model was used to calculate S values for 5 kidney tissues (cortex, outer and inner stripes of outer medulla, inner medulla, and papilla and pelvis) for a wide range of β- or α-emitting radionuclides (45 in total) of interest for radiopharmaceutical therapy, using Monte Carlo calculations. Additionally, regional S values were applied for a 131I-labeled single-domain antibody fragment with predominant retention in the outer stripe of the renal outer medulla. Results: The heterogeneous activity distribution in kidneys of considered α- and low- to medium-energy β-emitters considerably affected the absorbed dose estimation in specific suborgan regions. The suborgan tissue doses resulting from the nonuniform distribution of the 131I-labeled antibody fragment largely deviated (from -40% to 57%) from the mean kidney dose resulting from an assumed uniform activity distribution throughout the whole kidney. The absorbed dose in the renal outer stripe was about 2.0 times higher than in the cortex and in the inner stripe and about 2.6 times higher than in inner tissues. Conclusion: The use of kidney regional S values allows a more realistic estimation of the absorbed dose in different renal tissues from therapeutic radioligands with a heterogeneous uptake in the kidneys. This constitutes an improvement from the simplistic (less accurate) renal dose estimates assuming a uniform distribution of activity throughout kidney tissues. Such improvement in dosimetry is expected to support preclinical studies essential for a better understanding of nephrotoxicity in humans. The dosimetric database has added value in the development of new molecular vectors for radiopharmaceutical therapy.

Entropy generation minimization-based heat transfer and mass transfer study of rectangular packed-bed filled with spherical particles

The study focuses on tritium-extraction and heat-extraction characteristics of the lead lithium ceramic breeder (LLCB) blanket module, an Indian tritium breeding blanket concept design in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). The present study focuses on the mass transfer phenomenon and entropy generation minimization (EGM)-based heat transfer analysis of the packed bed of a fusion reactor considering tritium isotopes in helium gas. For temperature-dependent convection-diffusion of tritium in helium gas and its permeation through the solid structure, a multi-region model in OpenFOAM using the locally varying porous medium approach is developed for studying the coupled multi-physics phenomena. For heat extraction behavior, a parametric study-based analysis is done using the EGM approach that involves irreversibility due to heat transfer, mass transfer, viscous, porosity effect, and heat generation rates. It is found that a lower Reynolds number (Re), and higher non-dimensional heat generation number (β), and non-dimensional species generation number (ϛ) result in a higher tritium extraction. In contrast, due to minimum total entropy generation, higher Re, and lower β and ϛ are preferred. Random packing arrangement as compared to BCC and FCC arrangements gives better tritium extraction and uniformity. However, the FCC arrangement is found as a better choice based on entropy minimization. Diagonally-opposite as compared to same-side inlet-outlet configuration extracts tritium more effectively and also found to be a better configuration from the EGM approach. The present work is significant since, for the breeder blanket, it presents the implementation of Sievert law boundary conditions and the EGM model for the first time in the literature.

Where Have Carbon Emissions Gone? Evidence of Inbound Tourism in China

Tourism is emerging as an important contributor sector to carbon emissions. As inbound tourism is the main component of tourism activities, measuring and evaluating the carbon footprint of inbound tourism can help achieve low-carbon development of the global tourism industry. Based on the carbon footprint theory, this study describes the distribution and transfer path of China’s inbound tourism carbon footprint by using the China multi regional input-output model embedded in the inbound tourism satellite account. The results reveal that embodied carbon emissions (ECE) of inbound tourism is higher than direct carbon emissions, and carbon emissions intensity is close to the average economic. Therefore, it is difficult for inbound tourism to achieve the dual goals of stimulating economic growth and emission mitigation. The ECE of inbound tourism has obvious inter-provincial transfer characteristics. Inner Mongolia and Guangdong are the largest provinces with net outflows/inflows of ECE, with net outflows of 1.47 million tons and inflows of 2.66 million tons. Besides, the ECE mainly flows from the northeast and northwest regions to the southern and eastern regions. From the perspective of industry transfer, 72.2% of ECE of inbound tourism comes from the power sector.

Living fossils unearthed by blasting human chromosomes with Neanderthal mtDNA

The successful retrieval of ancient mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from Neanderthals provides powerful experimental evidence that clarifies the arguments between the out-of-Africa and multiregional models of evolution. However, the lack of nuclear DNA from Neanderthal fossils and mtDNA of early modern human fossils dating back to approximately the same time in the Pleistocene constitutes a limitation that may compromise the significance of mtDNA phylogenetic analysis. In this report, we introduce a mitochromic analysis using Neanderthal mtDNA as a foreign transgene and humans as a naturally occurring transgenic species. Forty Neanderthal mtDNA retrievable nuclear fragments were identified by blasting human genome data with Neanderthal mtDNA. Five of the 40 fragments exhibited higher correlation with Neanderthal mtDNA than those with modern human mtDNA. Furthermore, these five nuclear fragments harbor Neanderthal mtDNA-unique haplotypes. Based on the 98%+ identity between Neanderthal and modern human mtDNA when compared by groups, we suggest that some of the modern human nuclear fragments retrieved using Neanderthal mtDNA may aid in decoding Neanderthal genetic information, and also may simultaneously demonstrate a close genetic evolutionary relationship between modern humans and Neanderthals.

Modelling tourists' responses to climate change and its effects on alpine ski tourism – A comparative approach for European Regions

The paper presents a Regional Distribution Model (RDM), simulating the distribution of alpine skiing tourists in Europe, based on climate change impacts. For 71 European NUTS 3 winter tourism regions possible substitution effects on basis of climate change linked snow reliability and of two behavioural adaptation strategies that result in three different scenarios on touristic market connectedness are investigated. Results for 2050 are presented for European countries and on NUTS 3 level. Without adaptation strategies essential losses in overnight stays in all regions have to be expected (Scenario 1). Allowing shifts to more snow reliable areas (Scenario 2), these losses are significantly reduced, some countries and winter tourism regions profit from climate change by showing small increases. If skiers are allowed to shift also to other tourist activities outside NUTS 3 winter tourism regions within Europe (Scenario 3), all countries and winter tourism regions show again losses in overnight stays, which are usually lower than those for Scenario 1. The paper gives detailed information on Climate Change related competitiveness of touristic NUTS III regions. It argues that multi-regional modelling of tourism activities that take the connectedness of tourism markets into account, are an important part of climate change impact modelling for the tourism sector. We predict, that due to COVID-19 travel restrictions that may be a phenomenon that will occur more often in future, these kind of tourism models that explicitly model, the tourists of which region originate from which other region, will be used more often, since the connectedness of markets might no longer be a static variable.