Multi-period Optimization Model Research Articles

The perceived instability of tax legislation and its effect on consumption-investment decisions

During the past decade, there appears to have been an alarming decline in the flow of investment capital into ventures with uncertain returns. One factor which may have contributed to investor aversion to such investments is an increase in the perceived instability of the tax laws. This study examines the effect which this increase in the perceived instability of the tax laws may have on the two representative consumption-investment decisions of an owner-manager of a closely held corporation, namely: 1) the optimal periodic salary to draw from the corporation, and 2) the optimal time horizon for planning corporate affairs. These decisions are analyzed in the context of multiperiod optimization models. The study reveals that: 1) under certain conditions, increased tax rate uncertainty causes an increase in salary, and 2) increased tax rate uncertainty may cause a decrease in the time horizon for planning corporate affairs.

MIN-MAD life: A multi-period optimization model for life insurance company investment decisions

This paper presents a model, called the MIN-MAD Life Model, for managing the investments of a life insurance company over a multiperiod planning horizon. The MIN-MAD Life Model is a linear programming under uncertainty model based on Markowitz portfolio theory. Given the insurance company's current position and its forecasts of possible future developments with their associated probabilities, the model helps determine the set of efficient investment decisions over the planning horizon subject to market constraints and to the insurance company's legal and policy constraints. The senior executives of the life insurance company need examine only the set of efficient investment decisions to determine their optimal investment decisions.

The "Ratchet Principle" and Performance Incentives

The use of current performance as a partial basis for setting future targets is an almost universal feature of economic planning. This principle, as it is sometimes called, creates a dynamic incentive problem for the enterprise. Higher rewards from better current performance must be weighed against the future assignment of more ambitious targets. In this paper I formulate the problem of the enterprise as a multiperiod stochastic optimization model incorporating an explicit feedback mechanism for target setting. I show that an optimal solution is easily characterized, and that the incentive effects of the ratchet principle can be fully analyzed in simple economic terms.