Multimember Districts Research Articles

The effects of district magnitude and social diversity on party system fragmentation in majoritarian systems

Cross-national models of party system fragmentation hold that social diversity and district magnitude interact: higher levels of district magnitude allow for greater expression of social diversity that leads to higher levels of party system fragmentation. Most models, however, ignore differences between majoritarian and proportional electoral rules, which may significantly alter the impact of district magnitude, as well as the way in which district magnitude impacts the translation of social cleavages into party system fragmentation. Examining the case of Singapore suggests majoritarian multimember districts limit party system fragmentation, particularly by reducing the degree to which ethnic and religious diversity are translated into political parties. Applying these insights to a standard cross-national model of party system fragmentation, the results suggest that majoritarian multimember districts produce lower levels of party system fragmentation than proportional multimember districts.

One for all or all for one: The electoral effects of personalized campaign strategies

Political candidates in multi-member district proportional systems use different campaign strategies. Scholars have studied why some candidates focus on the party and run a party-centered campaign, while others highlight their own personal profile and merits by running personalized campaigns. However, it remains unclear how these different strategies influence the electoral success of candidates, especially in the context of proportional flexible list systems. To answer this question, we asked Belgian candidates to map out their campaign strategy and linked this to their election results. We find that especially investing personal money is an important predictor of success. Moreover, we find that candidates who aim to attract attention for themselves rather than the party also score better, but this effect is contingent on a candidate’s resources, list position, and political party.

The Contraction Effect: How Proportional Representation Affects Mobilization and Turnout

A substantial body of research examines whether increasing the proportionality of an electoral system increases turnout, mostly based on cross-national comparisons. In this study, we offer two main contributions to the previous literature. First, we show that moving from a single-member district system to proportional representation in multimember districts should, according to recent theories of elite mobilization, produce a contraction in the distribution of mobilizational effort across districts and, hence, a contraction in the distribution of turnout rates. Second, we exploit a within-country panel data set based on stable subnational geographic units before and after Norway’s historic 1919 electoral reform in order to test various implications stemming from the contraction hypothesis. We find significant support for the predictions of the elite mobilization models.

Structural and Contextual Factors Regarding the Accessibility of Elective Office for Women of Color at the Local Level

ABSTRACTDifferent from the majority of past research on gender gaps in political officeholding, we adopt an intersectionality framework and move beyond traditional individual factors to explore what implications certain elements in the political opportunity structure may have for women and men of color elected officials serving in county, municipal, and local school board offices. We argue that structural and contextual factors, such as type of institutions, election systems, and jurisdictional racial makeup, may influence the calculations women of color make concerning the accessibility of elective office. Using data from the Gender and Multiracial Leadership (GMCL) project, we find county offices to be the least, and seats on school boards the most, accessible to women of color. Of the types of electoral arrangements, we find multimember districts (MMD) to be the most significant variable predicting the likelihood of women of color in office. Although both Black and Latina women benefit from having a significant share of coethnics or nonwhites in jurisdictions, the two groups of women have an opposite relationship to their racial constituent makeup than that held by their male counterparts.

Out and Elected: Political Careers of Openly Gay and Lesbian Politicians in Germany and Finland

How have openly lesbian and gay politicians feared in German and Finnish politics from the 1980s to the present day? The article follows anecdotally the careers of individual lesbian and gay political actors in two countries with either a mixed system of constituency voting and list voting, or an open list with multi-member districts by using newspaper and journal articles as its sources. The findings of the article challenge pervious understandings about the natural connection between lesbian and gay politicians, movements and voters, as well as the most advantageous timing and ways for coming out. Whereas in both countries politician’s known homosexuality has transformed from a devastating problem to a potential benefit, the article also highlights the decisive role of gender in building successful political careers as an openly homosexual politician in high-level politics, and suggests to the enduringly gendered and sexualized constructedness of politics.

Electoral Rules and Political Selection: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan

Voters commonly face a choice between competent candidates and those with policy preferences similar to their own. This article explores how electoral rules, such as district magnitude, mediate this trade-off and affect the composition of representative bodies and the quality of policy outcomes. We show formally that anticipation of bargaining over policy causes voters in elections with multiple single-member districts to prefer candidates with polarized policy positions over more competent candidates. Results from a unique field experiment in Afghanistan are consistent with these predictions. Specifically, representatives selected by elections with a single multi-member district are better educated and exhibit less extreme policy preferences.

Incumbency advantage in multi-member districts: Evidence from congressional elections in Chile

Do parties enjoy an advantage to incumbency in multi-member districts? In this paper we answer this question by adapting a regression-discontinuity design to multi-member districts in congressional elections in Chile. The electoral system in place generates discontinuities in the number of elected representatives from each coalition at the 1/3 and 2/3 thresholds of the two-party vote share. Regression-discontinuity estimates indicate that, by holding two seats as opposed to holding only one, the left-leaning coalition obtains an extra 4.5% vote share in the next election and increases by 28 percentage points the probability of electing two candidates again. These results are in line with those obtained in previous studies in the U.S. but contrast with results obtained in developing countries which find a negative advantage to incumbency.

Does a mixed-member majoritarian system lead to a party vote?

One of the aims of the reform of the electoral system in 1994 was to increase the party vote. While the old system of multi-member districts with a single non-transferable vote promoted intra-party competition, the new system would encourage inter-party competition. The reformers expected Japanese electoral politics to become a party-oriented election. The analysis in this paper, however, shows that Japanese voters preferred a personal vote to a party vote in the 2012 general election. The results of a logistic regression analysis showed that the supporters of the Democratic Party of Japan and voters in districts where two parties competed tended toward the personal vote. The suggestion here is whether the voters who cast a personal vote are determined by not only the effect of the electoral system but also the evalu

Dual Defection Incentives in One System: Party Switching under Taiwan's Single non-transferable Vote

AbstractPolitical scientists generally consider that the incentive for legislators to switch parties lies in their desire to be re-elected. While some scholars attribute defection to the legislators’ popularity and strong connections with their constituents which enable them to be re-elected without relying on party labels, others assert that legislators switch if they perceive that staying put might threaten their chances of re-election. In this paper, we find that the two assumptions, to some extent, contradict each other. More surprisingly, the two contradictory hypotheses cohabit under the single non-transferable vote (SNTV) system. From an analysis of the switching in the Taiwanese Legislative Yuan, the empirical evidence shows that because of fierce intraparty competition in the multimember districts, not only barely elected but also top-ranked legislators switched party affiliation in order to avoid the loss in votes or even seats to their copartisans and to maximize their chances of re-election.

The Impact of District Magnitude on Voter Drop‐Off and Roll‐Off in American Elections

This study demonstrates that multimember districts (MMDs) complicate ballots, reduce voter information, and increase incentives for strategic voting in ways that reduce voter participation. Using data from three states that elect members of at least one legislative chamber from both single‐member districts (SMDs) and MMDs, we test hypotheses about the impact on MMDs on ballot drop‐off (selecting fewer candidates for an office than permissible) and roll‐off (not voting in down‐ballot races). We find support for both sets of hypotheses, with the strongest results related to ballot drop‐off. The results have broad implications for voter participation, representation, and election administration in the many states and localities that use MMDs to elect public officials.

Bamboo Shoots and Weak Roots: Organizational Expansion of New Parties in Japan

AbstractRecent research claims that local party organizations are essential for new parties seeking organizational stability and national-level electoral success. Yet new parties which emerged in Japan since the 1990s have failed in building nation-wide networks of local organizations. The article asks how these parties sought to expand locally and why their attempts have been largely unsuccessful. It finds evidence that under certain conditions (in urban areas and multi-member districts, or when controlling local chief executive offices and endowed with inherited resources) new parties have been more successful in standing and winning seats in regional elections. Regions with these favorable conditions are few, however, resulting in the overall weakness of the new parties’ local organizations. The study also disconfirms expectations that a party's control of national government should result in their improved representation at the local level. The article contributes to elucidating the incentives and dynamics of building party organizations in terms of local elected offices for newcomer parties in Japan. It hints at similar challenges for entrepreneurial parties with few social roots in other established democracies.

Candidate Ethnic Origins and Voter Preferences: Examining Name Discrimination in Local Elections in Britain

This article examines the relationship between candidate names as they appear on the ballot paper and voting patterns in British local elections. Specifically, it explores whether some voters favour candidates with British-sounding names over those whose names suggest either European or non-European ethnic origins. Name classification software identifies three categories of candidate: British, other European and non-European. Separate analyses of aggregate voting data are undertaken of multi-member and single-member electoral districts. Data cover the period 1973–2012, and votes for more than 400,000 candidates are examined. In multi-member districts, after comparing within-party slates and finishing order generally, candidates whose surnames suggest a British ethnic origin perform best, while non-Europeans attract fewer votes. The analysis of single-member districts focuses on a party’s vote share after taking into account the pattern of candidate recruitment across electoral cycles. It shows that vote share is adversely affected when British candidates are replaced by those with European and non-European surnames, while the opposite pattern of succession is associated with a boost in votes. It is clear that the outcome of some elections has been determined by the parties’ choice of candidates.

Incumbency advantage in a proportional electoral system: A regression discontinuity analysis of Irish elections

The existence of a large incumbency advantage in the winner-takes-all plurality system of the United States is well documented. It is unclear whether incumbents in proportional systems should enjoy such a large advantage. Multi-seat constituencies make it difficult for individual incumbents to claim credit for the provision of local public goods and services. Moreover, multiple incumbents may dilute media attention thereby limiting name recognition advantage. We use a regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effect of incumbency using election data from Ireland’s system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV). Incumbency causes an eighteen percentage point increase in the probability that a candidate in Ireland’s lower house of parliament wins a seat in the next election. Our results indicate that the protection of vulnerable incumbents from intra-party competition may be a source of incumbency advantage in multi-member district elections.

Explaining the Oil Advantage: Effects of Natural Resource Wealth on Incumbent Reelection in Iran

Why does natural resource wealth prolong incumbency? Using evidence from parliamentary elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran, the author shows that natural resource revenues boost incumbent reelection rates because they are used to provide public or private goods to constituents, which incentivizes voters to reelect incumbents over challengers. To test this hypothesis, the author employs originally assembled data on five parliamentary elections in Iran (1992–2008) in longitudinal hierarchical regression analyses at the district and province levels. By leveraging Iran's mixed-member electoral system, he shows that the resource-incumbency mechanism works primarily in single-member districts with little evidence of an incumbency advantage for politicians in resource-rich multimember districts. Building on the rentier theory of natural resource wealth, the results suggest that voting for the incumbent is attributable to patronage and public goods distribution. The findings offer new insights into the understudied context of Iranian legislative elections, illustrate the mechanisms driving the relationship between resource wealth and incumbency advantage at the subnational level in a nondemocratic setting, and highlight the mediating effects of electoral institutions on the resource-incumbency relationship.

Voting correctly in lab elections with monetary incentives

Whether people make the right choice when they vote for a given candidate or party and what factors affect the capacity to vote correctly have been recurrent questions in the political science literature. This paper contributes to this debate by looking at how the complexity of the electoral context affects voters’ capacity to vote correctly. Correct voting is defined as a vote that maximizes one’s payoffs in lab elections with monetary incentives. We examine two aspects of the electoral context: district magnitude and the distribution of preferences within the electorate. The main finding is that the frequency of correct voting is much higher in single-member than in multi-member district elections. As soon as there is more than one single seat to be allocated, voters have more difficulty figuring out whether they should vote sincerely for their preferred party or opt strategically for another party in order to maximize their payoffs. By contrast, the distribution of preferences within the electorate has no significant effect.

Party Organizations in Multiethnic and Homogenous Societies: Comparing India and Japan

How do party organizations respond to newly evolving social groups? Research on Indian party organizations reveals that in multiethnic societies with uneven modernization between social groups, internally competitive parties respond better to newly evolving groups. Moreover, it is claimed: the same dynamic works vis--vis homogenous societies with cleavages based on economic differences; and, the pattern holds regardless of differences in electoral institutions. This study examines these claims by testing whether factional competition correlated with recruitment into Japan`s Liberal Democratic Party in 1972 and 1983. Japan had a single-nontransferable-vote system with multi-member districts, while the research on India assumes a first-past-the-post system with single-member districts. This study conducts a difference of means test on the population of new and old politicians in the LDP in 1972 and 1983 with a pooled variance adjustment to account for differences in populations` size. The findings show that intra-party competition and recruitment are not correlated in Japan, thus tentatively rejecting both claims.

Women’s descriptive representation in developed and developing countries

Today there is a wealth of research on women’s legislative representation and the factors contributing to it. For example, proportional representation in large multi-member districts and an egalitarian political culture are commonly associated with high rates of women’s representation. However, in the developing world findings are less solid and there is little consensus on the salience of various explanatory variables (for example, political culture or electoral system type) on women’s descriptive representation. In this article, I explore the possibility that the divergent findings that characterise the discipline stem from the different dynamics at work in developed and developing countries. My results indicate that development by itself has a positive and significant impact on the percentage of female representatives. Development also interacts with other variables (for example, women’s participation in the workforce and quotas) in determining the level of women’s representation.

Two-party Contests and the Politics of Electoral Reforms: The Case of Taiwan

This article examines how party competition has led to electoral reforms in Taiwan. Dissatisfied with the existing system, political parties in Taiwan promoted electoral reforms. The Democratic Progressive Party led the reform process and the Kuomintang collaborated with it to change the electoral system from a single non-transferable vote and multi-member district system to a first-past-the-post mixed system. Despite opposition to the changes, these two parties successfully formed a coalition and passed reform bills with the support of the public. Using a theoretical framework of actors’ rational choices, this article argues that the parties’ goals of maximizing the number of seats and strategic interaction led to electoral reforms, and that during the reforms, the provision that the first-past-the-post system would provide more seats in the Legislative Yuan was crucial for the two parties. The article supports this argument with evidence from interviews, biographies and documents.

Party, leader or candidate? dissecting the right-wing populist vote in Finland

What populist right parties offer (the supply side) should be examined in relation to the preferences of the populist right electorate (the demand side). This article examines how the supply and demand in the electoral market are met by assessing the relative importance of party, party leader, and district-level candidate for the right-wing populist vote. The study is set in an electoral system, which uses preferential voting for candidates in multi-member districts, namely Finland, where all three objects of vote choice may matter. We analyse post-election survey data for the 2011 parliamentary election in which the right-wing populist True Finns party gained almost one fifth of the national vote. The results show that being guided by the characteristics of the party leader is a much stronger predictor the of the True Finns vote than being affected by party or district-level candidate characteristics.

Where Do Women Run? A Case for the Study of “Women Friendly Districts” in State Legislative Primaries

This study explores the political, institutional, and socio-demographic factors that contribute to the entry of women candidates in state legislative primaries. Using a dataset constructed from 49 partisan state legislative primary elections from 20012010, a binary time series cross-sectional logistic model is used to determine which factors are independently related to the probability of a woman candidate running for office. Women candidates run in districts that have a higher income, more professional people, are typically in cities with a higher urban population. Women candidates typically do not run in states with more professionalized legislatures, but are more likely to run in districts that are in session longer. Women are more likely to be present in districts where there is a lot of competition for a seat, i.e. multimember districts. The electoral environment that women face is different than men.