Livestock Movement Research Articles

Progress Towards Control of a Mycobacterial Pathogen, <i>Mycobacterium aviumsubsp</i>. <i>paratuberculosis</i>, the Causative Agent of Johne’s Disease in Cattle and Humans

Since the discovery that Mycobacterium aviumsubsp. paratuberculosis(Map) is the causative agent of Johne’s disease (JD) in cattle at the end of the nineteenth century, movement of livestock latently infected with Map has led to the spread of JD throughout the world. A new form of enteritis with clinical features of JD in cattle appeared in humans concurrent with the appearance of Map as a disease problem in livestock. The demonstration that Map is a zoonotic pathogen and the causative agent of the new form of enteritis in humans, however, wasn’t recognized until late in the twentieth century when methods were developed to detect the presence Map in tissues from patients with the new form of clinical enteritis. The objective of this short review is to provide a brief history explaining how Map has become a major disease problem in livestock and humans and then provide a review of the progress that has been made in treating patients with an enteritis caused by Map and the strategies underway to develop a vaccine to control infection in livestock.

Spatial and temporal distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in four districts situated along the Uganda-Tanzania border: Implications for cross-border efforts in disease control.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the major trans-boundary animal diseases in East Africa causing economic loss to farmers and other stakeholders in the livestock industry. Foot-and-mouth disease occurs widely in both Uganda and Tanzania with annual outbreaks recorded. With the recent introduction of the Progressive Control Pathway for FMD control (PCP-FMD) in eastern Africa, knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD at the border area between Uganda and Tanzania is helpful in framing engagement with the initial stages of the PCP. Retrospective data collected between 2011 and 2016 from four districts located along the border areas of Uganda and Tanzania, recorded 23 and 59 FMD outbreaks, respectively, for the entire study period. Analysis showed that 46% of the 82 recorded outbreaks occurred in 20% of sub-counties and wards immediately neighbouring the Uganda–Tanzania border and 69.5% of the outbreaks occurred during the dry months. While the serotypes of the FMD virus responsible for most outbreaks reported in this region were not known, previous research reported South African Territory (SAT) 1, SAT 2 and O to be the serotypes in circulation. The results from this study provide evidence of the endemic status of FMD on the Uganda–Tanzania border and emphasise that the border area should be given due consideration during FMD control drives and that cross-border coordination should be prioritised. With the limited data on circulating serotypes in this area, there is a need for more vigilance on FMD case detection, laboratory diagnostic confirmation and provision of more complete documentation of outbreaks. This work further recommends more studies on cross-border livestock movement coupled with phylogenetics in order to understand the spread of the FMD in the border area.

Spatio-temporal modelling of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157 in cattle in Sweden: exploring options for control

A spatial data-driven stochastic model was developed to explore the spread of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157 (VTEC O157) by livestock movements and local transmission among neighbouring holdings in the complete Swedish cattle population. Livestock data were incorporated to model the time-varying contact network between holdings and population demographics. Furthermore, meteorological data with the average temperature at the geographical location of each holding was used to incorporate season. The model was fitted against observed data and extensive numerical experiments were conducted to investigate the model’s response to control strategies aimed at reducing shedding and susceptibility, as well as interventions informed by network measures. The results showed that including local spread and season improved agreement with prevalence studies. Also, control strategies aimed at reducing the average shedding rate were more efficient in reducing the VTEC O157 prevalence than strategies based on network measures. The methodology presented in this study could provide a basis for developing disease surveillance on regional and national scales, where observed data are combined with readily available high-resolution data in simulations to get an overview of potential disease spread in unobserved regions.

Livestock trade network: potential for disease transmission and implications for risk-based surveillance on the island of Mayotte

The island of Mayotte is a department of France, an outermost region of the European Union located in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa. Due to its close connection to the African mainland and neighbouring islands, the island is under constant threat of introduction of infectious diseases of both human and animal origin. Here, using social network analysis and mathematical modelling, we assessed potential implications of livestock movements between communes in Mayotte for risk-based surveillance. Our analyses showed that communes in the central region of Mayotte acted as a hub in the livestock movement network. The majority of livestock movements occurred between communes in the central region and from communes in the central region to those in the outer region. Also, communes in the central region were more likely to be infected earlier than those in the outer region when the spread of an exotic infectious disease was simulated on the livestock movement network. The findings of this study, therefore, suggest that communes in the central region would play a major role in the spread of infectious diseases via livestock movements, which needs to be considered in the design of risk-based surveillance systems in Mayotte.

A review of the history of research and control of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, babesiosis and anaplasmosis in Uruguay.

In Uruguay, control of Rhipicephalus microplus began in 1910. In 1941 the eradication of R. micoplus throughout the country was declared mandatory, although this attempt was unsuccessful. Since 2008 the country was divided into two regions: the south-western region, which is free of ticks; and a region of tick control that includes all departments to the north of the Rio Negro and five departments in the eastern region. In Uruguay, investigations on R. microplus, babesiosis and anaplasmosis started in 1921, and in the 1970s, studies of the epidemiology of R. microplus determined that from 2 to 3.5 generations can be produced annually and that the country is in an area of enzootic instability for babesiosis and anaplasmosis. Knowledge of tick epidemiology and of tick resistance to different acaricides led to the development of efficient methods of control or eradication, including integrated control and generational treatment. Although research results have led to a legal framework regarding R. microplus control, these measures have had variable results. This can be attributed to several factors, such as the discontinuation of the control measures, variable financial resources, changes in the dynamics of livestock movement, failure to adopt available technology for tick control by farmers, climate change, environmental alterations such as forestation and the increasing resistance of ticks to acaricides, which led to the development of multiresistant ticks. This paper reviews the history of R. microplus, babesiosis and anaplasmosis in Uruguay and proposes alternatives for their control.

Cattle transhumance and agropastoral nomadic herding practices in Central Cameroon

BackgroundIn sub-Saharan Africa, livestock transhumance represents a key adaptation strategy to environmental variability. In this context, seasonal livestock transhumance also plays an important role in driving the dynamics of multiple livestock infectious diseases. In Cameroon, cattle transhumance is a common practice during the dry season across all the main livestock production zones. Currently, the little recorded information of the migratory routes, grazing locations and nomadic herding practices adopted by pastoralists, limits our understanding of pastoral cattle movements in the country. GPS-tracking technology in combination with a questionnaire based-survey were used to study a limited pool of 10 cattle herds from the Adamawa Region of Cameroon during their seasonal migration, between October 2014 and May 2015. The data were used to analyse the trajectories and movement patterns, and to characterize the key animal health aspects related to this seasonal migration in Cameroon.ResultsSeveral administrative Regions of the country were visited by the transhumant herds over more than 6 months. Herds travelled between 53 and 170 km to their transhumance grazing areas adopting different strategies, some travelling directly to their destination areas while others having multiple resting periods and grazing areas. Despite their limitations, these are among the first detailed data available on transhumance in Cameroon. These reports highlight key livestock health issues and the potential for multiple types of interactions between transhumant herds and other domestic and wild animals, as well as with the formal livestock trading system.ConclusionOverall, these findings provide useful insights into transhumance patterns and into the related animal health implications recorded in Cameroon. This knowledge could better inform evidence-based approaches for designing infectious diseases surveillance and control measures and help driving further studies to improve the understanding of risks associated with livestock movements in the region.

Sero-prevalence of foot and mouth disease in cattle in Borena Zone, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia

ObjectiveTo determine the sero-prevalnce of FMD and indicate patterns of animal movement in Borena zone, Ethiopia.IntroductionThe Foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus is a highly contagious and economically devastating trans boundery disease of cloven-hooved domestic and wild animals1.MethodsA cross-sectional study was carried out between April and November 2015 to investigate the sero-prevalence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in cattle using serology and questionnaire servey in Borena zone.ResultsA total of 363 sera samples were collected from nine peasant associations found in three different districts. An overall seroprevalence of 42.7% (95%: CI= 37.7-47.84) was found during the study. There was statistically significant difference among the districts (χ2 = 10.43, p=0.005) and the highest prevalence was found in Dire district which accounted for 52.8% (95%: CI, 44.0-61.4). Soda peasant association of Dire district and Surupa peasant association of Yabello district accounted for highest sero-prevalence 65.5% (95%: CI, 49.4-78.5) and 65.0% (95%: CI= 40.4-78.5), respectively. Statistical significant difference in footand-mouth disease seroprevalence (χ2 =31.1, p=0.000) was found among the peasant associations. Similarly, there was significance difference (χ2 =17.4, p=0.000) in the prevalence of foot-and-mouth disease between age groups. Though the seroprevalence foot-and-mouth disease was higher in females than in males, there was no significant difference (χ2=1.63, p=0.202) between sex. The different risk factors analyzed during this study indicated that, peasant associations (PAs), district and age were seen to be significantly associated (p<0.05) with the seroprevalence of foot-and-mouth disease. The questionnaire survey revealed that foot-and-mouth disease outbreak was commonly seen during June to August (Short rainy season) and December to February (Long dry season), locally called Adolessa and Bona, respectively. Younger (1-3 years) animals were most susceptible than calf and adults (>3years). Moreover, an extrinsic factor like dry season enforces pastoralist to travel a longer distance to look for grazing lands and water sources that creates suitable conditions for foot-and-mouth disease transmission between infected and susceptible animals.ConclusionsFMD is an important transboundery animal disease that affects the livelihood of farmers and economy of the country. In pastoral areas like Borena where livestock movement is common during dry season, the disease is devastating and spreading from one area to the other. Therefore, an extensive regular serological survey, virus isolation, and characterizations of FMD virus need to be conducted for a possible development of poly-valent vaccines that contains commonly circulating serotypes of FMD virus in Ethiopia.

First detection of foot-and-mouth disease virus O/ME-SA/Ind2001 in China.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in China and is predominantly due to foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotype O Mya-98 lineage. In recent years, FMDV O/ME-SA/Ind2001 lineage has spread from the Indian subcontinent to South-East Asia, Middle East and Africa, which may pose potential threats for future trans-regional livestock movements. In this study, we identified the appearance of FMDV O/ME-SA/Ind2001 in China; the first time that this virus lineage has been found there. Sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of VP1 sequences revealed that this newly determined strain belongs to O/ME-SA/Ind2001 sublineage d and is closely related to strains that have caused recent outbreaks of FMD in Nepal, Myanmar, Russia and South Korea. The results suggest extensive movements of the current O/ME-SA/Ind2001 sublineage d viruses and provide essential information for an effective national FMDV control programme in China.

Manipulation of contact network structure and the impact on foot-and-mouth disease transmission

The movements of livestock between premises and markets can be characterised as a dynamic network where the structure of the network itself can critically impact the transmission dynamics of many infectious diseases. As evidenced by the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the UK, this can involve transmission over large geographical distances and can result in major economic loss. One consequence of the FMD epidemic was the introduction of mandatory livestock movement restrictions: a 13-day standstill in Scotland for cattle and sheep after moving livestock onto a farm (allowing many exemptions) and a 6-day standstill for cattle and sheep in England and Wales (with minor exemptions, e.g. direct movements to slaughter). Such standstills are known to be effective but commercial considerations result in pressures to relax them. When contemplating legislative changes such as a change in length of movement restrictions we need to consider the consequent effect these could have on the emergent properties of the system, i.e. the network structure itself. In this study, we investigate how disease dynamics change when the local contact structure of the recorded livestock movement network in Scotland is altered through rewiring movements between premises. The network rewiring used here changes the structure of the recorded trade network through a combination of altered movement restrictions and redirection of movements between holdings and markets to avoid nonsensical activity (e.g. movements to markets on days when they are inactive) while conserving other characteristics (e.g. movement date as closely as possible and market sales of the correct animal production type). Rewiring results in networks with higher clustering coefficients and lower network density. The impact of rewiring on a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Scotland was assessed by stochastic simulation, considering scenarios with and without exemptions to the standstill rules. As expected, rewiring leads to a decrease in outbreak size and - if standstill exemptions are prohibited – higher probability of smaller outbreaks. Without exemptions, a shorter movement standstill is almost as effective as a longer standstill period, indicating that a simpler biosecurity system would offer minimal additional risk for FMD. These results suggest that explicitly manipulating the contact network structure in a sensible way has the potential to significantly impact disease control.

Seasonal interactions of pastoralists and wildlife in relation to pasture in an African savanna ecosystem

Wildlife and livestock have coexisted across East African rangelands for millennia, tracking seasonal forage availability across large landscapes. More recently however, free-ranging movements have been increasingly restricted by land use changes, reducing the ability of livestock and wildlife to access necessary grazing resources, leading to both homogenization and degradation of the rangeland. This in turn has led to losses in productivity of both livestock and wildlife. This study describes wildlife and livestock interactions in response to pasture in one of the few remaining areas of mixed wildlife-livestock use with unrestricted movements. We ask if pastoral management systems can create and maintain spatial and temporal heterogeneity of pasture, through the seasonal movement of livestock. Furthermore, does this heterogeneity create a diverse, productive and resilient assemblage of both domestic and wild ungulates? Our results provide evidence to support the notion that traditional pastoral systems which continue to manage for heterogeneity of pasture can still support not only livestock but also substantial numbers of wildlife. The results highlight the need for wildlife and livestock to retain both mobility and access to both wet and dry season areas to maintain ecosystem resilience and promote coexistence in mixed livestock-wildlife landscapes.

Perceived effects of transhumant practices on natural resource management in southern Mali

Recurring forage and water scarcity in the Sahelian zone of West Africa, especially in the dry season, has led to increased livestock movement into Sudano-Sahelian and Sudano-Guinean zones in the region. This increased movement by transhumant herders has resulted in growing competition over natural resources. Despite the strong presence of transhumant herds in the Sudano-Sahelian/Sudano-Guinean zones of Mali in the past 30 years, there has been limited research on the practice of transhumance in these zones, compared to several studies in the Sahelian zone. In this paper, we present how various actors in two districts in the Sudano-Sahelian/Sudano-Guinea zones of Mali perceived the effect of transhumant practices on natural resource management. Results from the study showed that more than 75% of all categories of respondents in both study sites perceived a decline in availability of forage resources and water as a result of the increased number of transhumant herders in their communities. Furthermore, a greater proportion of farmers and settled pastoralists in both study sites responded that there has been a decline in species richness of the vegetation. In contrast, more than 50% of transhumant herders did not see any change in species richness of natural vegetation due to their presence. They argued that the observed decline in species richness of the vegetation is due to climate change. Education level, location and socio-professional categories tended to be the key factors influencing respondent’s perception on the impact of transhumant practices on natural resource management. As the perceived impact of transhumant practices depends on socio-professional groups, it is necessary to engage all the actors on how to effectively manage the presence of transhumant herders, in order to promote sustainable use of natural resources in southern Mali. Besides, more research is needed to assess the validity of the reported perceptions in this study.

Estimating Mammalian Diversity and Relative Abundance Using Camera Traps in a Tropical Deciduous Forest of Kuldiha Wildlife Sanctuary, Eastern India

Information on the status and distribution of species within a geographical region is vital for designing effective conservation plans. We assessed the diversity and abundance of medium to large sized mammals in Kuldiha Wildlife Sanctuary, eastern India by using remotely triggered camera traps from January 2013 to August 2013. A total 916 camera trap days at 65 trap stations were deployed. We recorded 912 independent photographs and identified 20 species of mammals. Based on photographic rate of each mammalian species, the small Indian civet Viverricula indica represented high relative abundance (RAI = 2.07) among the carnivore while the Asian elephant Elephas maximus among the herbivores (RAI = 9.72) and the sloth bear Melursus ursinus among the omnivores (RAI = 2.51). Large carnivores like the leopard Panthera pardus (RAI = 0.55) and the Asiatic wild dog Cuon alpinus (RAI = 0.11) were represented by a relatively low abundance. Frequency of various anthropogenic activities from movement of livestock, feral dogs and human traffic accounted for maximum photo capture (combined RAI = 30.7) and found to be negatively correlated with mammalian relative abundance. So an effective intervention incorporating the social and ecological components is desirable for wildlife conservation in Kuldiha Wildlife Sanctuary.

Controlling Within-Field Sheep Movement Using Virtual Fencing.

Simple SummaryVirtual fencing has the potential to increase the implementation of spatial grazing management and targeted grazing without the use of conventional fencing. Current virtual fencing that uses an algorithm that is patented through CSIRO involves a collar that emits a warning audio when an animal approaches a set boundary. If the animal continues walking towards the boundary, an electric stimulus is applied. Using manually operated collars to implement a similar virtual fence, a small group of sheep were restricted from accessing a section of a small paddock. Sheep were successfully kept out of the excluded zone of the paddock. By the third day, the sheep were able to avoid receiving an electrical stimulus by turning away from the boundary when the warning audio was applied. When the sheep were allowed full access to the paddock again, then they were quick to use the once restricted area.Virtual fencing has the potential to greatly improve livestock movement, grazing efficiency, and land management by farmers; however, relatively little work has been done to test the potential of virtual fencing with sheep. Commercial dog training equipment, comprising of a collar and GPS hand-held unit were used to implement a virtual fence in a commercial setting. Six, 5–6 year-old Merino wethers, which were naïve to virtual fencing were GPS tracked for their use of a paddock (80 × 20 m) throughout the experiment. The virtual fence was effective at preventing a small group of sheep from entering the exclusion zone. The probability of a sheep receiving an electrical stimulus following an audio cue was low (19%), and declined over the testing period. It took an average of eight interactions with the fence for an association to be made between the audio and stimulus cue, with all of the animals responding to the audio alone by the third day. Following the removal of the virtual fence, sheep were willing to cross the previous location of the virtual fence after 30 min of being in the paddock. This is an important aspect in the implementation of virtual fencing as a grazing management tool and further enforces that the sheep in this study were able to associate the audio with the virtual fence and not the physical location itself.

Occurrence of trypanosome infections in cattle in relation to season, livestock movement and management practices of Maasai pastoralists in Northern Tanzania.

African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) is a parasitic disease considered to be one of the greatest constraints to cattle production in Tanzania. There is insufficient information on seasonal occurrence of AAT and management practices in Monduli District of the Maasai Steppe ecosystem to guide and prioritize AAT control programs. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in 10 randomly selected villages of Monduli District. Information on seasonal animal movements, including wildlife interaction, and AAT management practices was gathered using a standardized questionnaire with 130 pastoralists. Blood samples were collected from a total of 960 cattle, in wet and dry seasons. An entomological survey was also undertaken in the dry season. Polymerase chain reaction targeting the internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) was used for parasite identification in cattle blood and in tsetse flies. The overall apparent prevalence of AAT in cattle was 5.8% (95% CI of 4.1-8.3) and 4.2% (95% CI of 2.7-6.3) during wet and dry reasons, respectively. Trypanosoma vivax was the most common species identified in cattle. All tsetse flies (n = 426) collected were trapped in Esilalei village which is in close proximity to Lake Manyara National Park. Tsetse fly infection status was determined to be 7.0%; (CI 95% of 4.9-9.8%) with nearly 50% of infections due to T. congolense. All 130 cattle owners reported that they could easily recognize AAT and the majority (75%) identified the most prominent clinical signs. Nearly all owners (98.5%) identified that tsetse flies were responsible for AAT transmission. All cattle owners (100%) reported the use of trypanocides for AAT treatment, while 2.3% reported to also use herbal medicine. The trypanocides, Novidium® and Berenil®, were the most frequently reported commercial drugs and were used by 42% of cattle owners. Vector control by hand spraying was reported by the majority (90.8%) of cattle owners, while dipping and deployment of insecticide-impregnated targets were reported by few cattle owners (16.2% and 5.4%, respectively). The majority of cattle owners (83.1%) reported to move cattle away from home villages during the dry season with many migrating to areas in close proximity to wildlife parks. This study confirms the presence of circulating pathogenic trypanosomes in tsetse flies which continue to pose a threat to Maasai cattle. The seasonal movement of cattle during the dry season was associated with more clinical cases of cattle trypanosomosis. This study demonstrates the need to strengthen surveillance and control strategies for AAT.

The Cellular Chaperone Heat Shock Protein 90 Is Required for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Capsid Precursor Processing and Assembly of Capsid Pentamers.

ABSTRACTProductive picornavirus infection requires the hijacking of host cell pathways to aid with the different stages of virus entry, synthesis of the viral polyprotein, and viral genome replication. Many picornaviruses, including foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), assemble capsids via the multimerization of several copies of a single capsid precursor protein into a pentameric subunit which further encapsidates the RNA. Pentamer formation is preceded by co- and posttranslational modification of the capsid precursor (P1-2A) by viral and cellular enzymes and the subsequent rearrangement of P1-2A into a structure amenable to pentamer formation. We have developed a cell-free system to study FMDV pentamer assembly using recombinantly expressed FMDV capsid precursor and 3C protease. Using this assay, we have shown that two structurally different inhibitors of the cellular chaperone heat shock protein 90 (hsp90) impeded FMDV capsid precursor processing and subsequent pentamer formation. Treatment of FMDV permissive cells with the hsp90 inhibitor prior to infection reduced the endpoint titer by more than 10-fold while not affecting the activity of a subgenomic replicon, indicating that translation and replication of viral RNA were unaffected by the drug.IMPORTANCE FMDV of the Picornaviridae family is a pathogen of huge economic importance to the livestock industry due to its effect on the restriction of livestock movement and necessary control measures required following an outbreak. The study of FMDV capsid assembly, and picornavirus capsid assembly more generally, has tended to be focused upon the formation of capsids from pentameric intermediates or the immediate cotranslational modification of the capsid precursor protein. Here, we describe a system to analyze the early stages of FMDV pentameric capsid intermediate assembly and demonstrate a novel requirement for the cellular chaperone hsp90 in the formation of these pentameric intermediates. We show the added complexity involved for this process to occur, which could be the basis for a novel antiviral control mechanism for FMDV.

Use of GPS tracking collars and accelerometers for rangeland livestock production research.

Over the last 20 yr, global positioning system (GPS) collars have greatly enhanced livestock grazing behavior research. Practices designed to improve livestock grazing distribution can now be accurately and cost effectively monitored with GPS tracking. For example, cattle use of feed supplement placed in areas far from water and on steep slopes can be measured with GPS tracking and corresponding impacts on distribution patterns estimated. Ongoing research has identified genetic markers that are associated with cattle spatial movement patterns. If the results can be validated, genetic selection for grazing distribution may become feasible. Tracking collars have become easier to develop and construct, making them significantly less expensive, which will likely increase their use in livestock grazing management research. Some research questions can be designed so that dependent variables are measured by spatial movements of livestock, and in such cases, GPS tracking is a practical tool for conducting studies on extensive and rugged rangeland pastures. Similarly, accelerometers are changing our ability to monitor livestock behavior. Today, accelerometers are sensitive and can record movements at fine temporal scales for periods of weeks to months. The combination of GPS tracking and accelerometers appears to be useful tools for identifying changes in livestock behavior that are associated with livestock diseases and other welfare concerns. Recent technological advancements may make real-time or near real-time tracking on rangelands feasible and cost-effective. This would allow development of applications that could remotely monitor livestock well-being on extensive rangeland and notify ranchers when animals require treatment or other management.

Population structure and genetic diversity of Rhipicephalus microplus in Zimbabwe

Recently there was an expansion in the geographic range of Rhipicephalus microplus in Zimbabwe. In order to understand gene flow patterns and population structure in this highly invasive and adaptable cattle tick, a population genetics study was carried out. Eighty-seven R. microplus tick samples drawn from 5 distinct populations were genotyped using eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Genetic diversity (He) was high (0.755–0.802) in all the populations, suggesting high levels of gene flow with 97% of genetic variation found within populations and 3% amongst populations. No isolation by distance was observed with low but significant genetic differentiation amongst the populations (0–0.076). Most of the sampled individuals had admixed genetic backgrounds, except for those from Matabeleland North whose genetic makeup appeared different from the rest. Rhipicephalus microplus was recently recorded in this area and the environmental conditions do not support survival of the tick there. These results confirm recent range expansion of the tick and the lowest genetic diversity recorded in the Matabeleland North population is suggestive of a founder effect, which may lead to genetic drift. Generally, the very low levels of genetic differentiation amongst the populations could be a result of the frequent movement of livestock from one area to another, which will have implications for disease control. This study offers further opportunities to study evolutionary adaptation of R. microplus in Zimbabwe and southern Africa.

Forecasting the 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in the UK

Near real-time epidemic forecasting approaches are needed to respond to the increasing number of infectious disease outbreaks. In this paper, we retrospectively assess the performance of simple phenomenological models that incorporate early sub-exponential growth dynamics to generate short-term forecasts of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK. For this purpose, we employed the generalized-growth model (GGM) for pre-peak predictions and the generalized-Richards model (GRM) for post-peak predictions. The epidemic exhibits a growth-decelerating pattern as the relative growth rate declines inversely with time. The uncertainty of the parameter estimates (r{text{ and }}p) narrows down and becomes more precise using an increasing amount of data of the epidemic growth phase. Indeed, using only the first 10–15 days of the epidemic, the scaling of growth parameter (p) displays wide uncertainty with the confidence interval for p ranging from values ~ 0.5 to 1.0, indicating that less than 15 epidemic days of data are not sufficient to discriminate between sub-exponential (i.e., p < 1) and exponential growth dynamics (i.e., p = 1). By contrast, using 20, 25, or 30 days of epidemic data, it is possible to recover estimates of p around 0.6 and the confidence interval is substantially below the exponential growth regime. Local and national bans on the movement of livestock and a nationwide cull of infected and contiguous premises likely contributed to the decelerating trajectory of the epidemic. The GGM and GRM provided useful 10-day forecasts of the epidemic before and after the peak of the epidemic, respectively. Short-term forecasts improved as the model was calibrated with an increasing length of the epidemic growth phase. Phenomenological models incorporating generalized-growth dynamics are useful tools to generate short-term forecasts of epidemic growth in near real time, particularly in the context of limited epidemiological data as well as information about transmission mechanisms and the effects of control interventions.

Translating Predictions of Zoonotic Viruses for Policymakers.

Recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease and Zika virus disease highlight the need for disseminating accurate predictions of emerging zoonotic viruses to national governments for disease surveillance and response. Although there are published maps for many emerging zoonotic viruses, it is unknown if there is agreement among different models or if they are concordant with national expert opinion. Therefore, we reviewed existing predictions for five high priority emerging zoonotic viruses with national experts in Cameroon to investigate these issues and determine how to make predictions more useful for national policymakers. Predictive maps relied primarily on environmental parameters and species distribution models. Rift Valley fever virus and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus predictions differed from national expert opinion, potentially because of local livestock movements. Our findings reveal that involving national experts could elicit additional data to improve predictions of emerging pathogens as well as help repackage predictions for policymakers.

Seasonality and pathogen transmission in pastoral cattle contact networks.

Capturing heterogeneity in contact patterns in animal populations is essential for understanding the spread of infectious diseases. In contrast to other regions of the world in which livestock movement networks are integral to pathogen prevention and control policies, contact networks are understudied in pastoral regions of Africa due to the challenge of measuring contact among mobile herds of cattle whose movements are driven by access to resources. Furthermore, the extent to which seasonal changes in the distribution of water and resources impacts the structure of contact networks in cattle is uncertain. Contact networks may be more conducive to pathogen spread in the dry season due to congregation at limited water sources. Alternatively, less abundant forage may result in decreased pathogen transmission due to competitive avoidance among herds, as measured by reduced contact rates. Here, we use GPS technology to concurrently track 49 free-roaming cattle herds within a semi-arid region of Kenya, and use these data to characterize seasonal contact networks and model the spread of a highly infectious pathogen. This work provides the first empirical data on the local contact network structure of mobile herds based on quantifiable contact events. The contact network demonstrated high levels of interconnectivity. An increase in contacts near to water resources in the dry season resulted in networks with both higher contact rates and higher potential for pathogen spread than in the wet season. Simulated disease outbreaks were also larger in the dry season. Results support the hypothesis that limited water resources enhance connectivity and transmission within contact networks, as opposed to reducing connectivity as a result of competitive avoidance. These results cast light on the impact of seasonal heterogeneity in resource availability on predicting pathogen transmission dynamics, which has implications for other free-ranging wild and domestic populations.