Movements In Real Effective Exchange Rates Research Articles

Real Exchange Rate and External Balance: How Important Are Price Deflators?

AbstractThis paper contrasts real effective exchange rate (REER) measures based on different deflators (consumer price index, GDP deflator, and unit labor cost) and discusses potential implications for the link—or lack thereof—between the REER and the external balance. We begin by comparing the evolution of different measures of REER to confirm that the choice of deflator plays a significant role in REER movements. A subsequent empirical investigation based on 35 developed and emerging market economies over 1995–2017 yields comprehensive and robust evidence that only the REER deflated by unit labor cost exhibits contemporaneous patterns consistent with the expenditure‐switching mechanism. Finally, we show that a standard open‐economy model with nominal rigidities and trade in intermediate goods is able to generate these aforementioned patterns.

Determinants of real exchange rate movements in 15 emerging market economies

ABSTRACT Previous work has established that an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) contributes to premature deindustrialization, less productive investment and dependence on commodity booms and busts in emerging markets economies (EME). From the literature, it is less clear, however, what the most important drivers for the cyclical REER movements in EME are. The aim of this study is to provide empirical evidence about the determinants of the REER movements of 15 emerging markets during the last two decades, using statistical analysis and a dynamic panel fixed effects model approach. Our analysis shows that although “commodity” and “industrial” EME are heterogeneous, REER volatility tends to be higher among the former. EME that had more stable REER fared better than those that had a depreciating or appreciating trend (with the notable exception of China). As theoretically expected, commodity prices are an important structural driver of REER movements in “commodity EME”. Moreover, the results confirm the existence of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect, and show the importance of financial inflows. Further, the interventions of central banks were partially successful to avoid more substantial appreciations (depreciations). Finally, we find that lower country risk and, at least in some periods, growing broad money in OECD countries has led to REER appreciations in our sample countries.

Real Effective Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Empirical Evidence from India’s Sub-National Economies

This paper investigates the impact of real effective exchange rates (REER), both in terms of levels and volatility, on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows for a panel of 35 Indian sub-national economies over the period 2000-2013. In light of the asymmetric distribution of FDI inflows within India, we focus on examining the nexus between FDI inflows at the sub-national level and India’s competitiveness captured by REER. Our empirical analysis reveals that movements in REER have a significant and negative impact on FDI inflows, while REER volatility is found to be inducing FDI. Our results are suggestive that FDI inflows into India are largely domestic market oriented in nature. Purpose: In light of the asymmetric distribution of FDI inflows within India, we focus on examining the nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows at the sub-national level and India’s competitiveness captured by real effective exchange rates (REER). This paper investigates the impact of REER, both in terms of levels and volatility, on FDI inflows to 35 Indian sub-national economies over the period 2000-2013. Research Methodology: To examine the impact of REER on FDI inflows, we compile a panel dataset for 35 sub-national economies covering the time period 2000 to 2013. We employ panel fixed effects models to explore our relationship of interest between REER and FDI, controlling for other characteristics specific to a sub-national economy.Findings: Our empirical analysis reveals that movements in REER have a significant and negative impact on FDI inflows, while REER volatility is found to be inducing FDI. Our results are suggestive that FDI inflows into India are largely domestic market-oriented in nature. Originality/Value: Considering that India’s FDI inflows exhibit significant concentration patterns among selected regions, we exploit this heterogeneity at the sub-national level to empirically understand the determinants of FDI, with a particular focus on cost competitiveness as captured by REER. The extant literature has not explicitly focused on testing the impact of REER both in terms of its levels and volatility on FDI inflows to India at the sub-national level, especially not at the sub-national level. While admittedly the exchange rate varies only at the national level, the value-addition comes from understanding its interaction with state-varying macroeconomic indicators.

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment

There is an ongoing debate in the literature on whether global trade flows have become disconnected from the large real effective exchange rate movements in the wake of the global financial crisis. The question has important policy implications for the role of exchange rates in supporting growth and restoring external balance. In this paper, we use Turkey---a large and open emerging market economy that has experienced sizable swings of the real effective exchange rate---as a case study to test competing hypotheses. Our results lend support to the finding in existing cross-country studies that the real effective exchange rate remains an important determinant of trade flows. But, its effect is not symmetric in secular periods of appreciation and depreciation and is, oftentimes, dwarfed by the impact on trade flows of the income growth differential between trade partners.

Impact of exchange rates on exports from India’s sub-national economies

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of real effective exchange rates (REER), both in terms of levels and volatility, on the export performance of India’s sub-national economies, given the recent slowdown in India’s exports. Design/methodology/approach India’s export distribution is highly asymmetric, with 90 percent of India’s exports concentrated in 11 sub-national economies. Exploiting this concentration, this paper constructs a panel data set using available data between 2002 and 2014 to understand the relationship between REER and exports from the top exporting cluster. Moreover, the paper constructs a sub-national competitiveness index to capture the supply capacity of the states. Findings The empirical findings of this paper reveal that a higher REER volatility deters exports and movements in REER do not matter as much as volatility. The most significant finding of the paper is that state competitiveness is the most crucial factor affecting trade. Therefore, policy makers at the state level must lay more emphasis on the supply side such as addressing logistical bottlenecks to help revive exports growth. Originality/value This study makes a departure from the plethora of extant aggregate-level studies by examining the relationship between REER and exports at the sub-national level for India. Considering the highly skewed distribution of India’s exports, the study provides important insights into the exporting patterns and determinants that are at play at the sub-national level.

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey

There is an ongoing debate in the literature on whether global trade flows have become disconnected from the large real effective exchange rate movements in the wake of the global financial crisis. The question has important policy implications for the role of exchange rates in supporting growth and restoring external balance. In this paper, we use Turkey---a large and open emerging market economy that has experienced sizable swings of the real effective exchange rate---as a case study to test competing hypotheses. Our results lend support to the finding in existing cross-country studies that the real effective exchange rate remains an important determinant of trade flows. But, its effect is not symmetric in secular periods of appreciation and depreciation and is, oftentimes, dwarfed by the impact on trade flows of the income growth differential between trade partners.

Real exchange rate and asymmetric shocks in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)

This paper examines real effective exchange rate (REER) responses to shocks in exchange rate determinants for the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) over the period 1980–2015. The analysis is based on a country-by-country VECM, and oil price, supply and demand shocks are identified using long run restrictions in a structural VAR model. We report significant differences in the response of REER to real oil price, productivity (supply) and demand preference shocks across these economies. In addition the relative contribution of these shocks to REER movements in the short and long run appears to be different across economies. Our findings suggest that the WAMZ countries are structurally different, and asymmetric shocks with inadequate adjustment mechanisms imply that a monetary union would be costly.

The influence of the international oil prices on the real effective exchange rate in Romania in a wavelet transform framework

The purpose of this paper is to assess the empirical influence of oil prices on the real effective exchange rate in Romania in a wavelet transform framework. More precisely, we investigate to what extent oil prices impact the real effective exchange rate in an Eastern European transition country, characterised by a low level of retail fuel prices and by an important growth rate of these prices as compared to the other EU countries. For this purpose we use a discrete wavelet transform approach and scale-by-scale Granger causality tests. We find that oil prices have a strong influence on the real effective exchange rate in the short run, but also for large time horizons. These results are important considering the fact that, in a classical Granger causality linear framework for the entire sample, we find that oil prices have no influence on the real effective exchange rate. The findings remain robust when resampling the initial 1986–2009 period, or when we use an alternative continuous wavelet transform. In addition, we discover that mainly the positive shocks associated with an increase in oil prices have an impact upon the real effective exchange rate movements in the short and long runs.

Écarts d’inflation et soutenabilité de la zone euro : les enseignements des indicateurs des conditions monétaires

Inflation Gaps and Sustainability of the Euro Zone : What Do the Monetary Conditions Indexes Tell Us ? The existence of inflation gaps across the euro zone countries is a real preoccupation for policy makers. Diverging levels of inflation across a monetary union lead to various gaps of real interest rates among the member countries. These gaps of real interest rates can contribute to maintain both inflation and output gaps. Therefore, the impact of real interest rates can be compensated by the movements of the real effective exchange rate. The motivation of this paper is to test the effect of real effective exchange rate movements on output gaps within the euro area countries. Using the standard version of the monetary conditions index (MCI), which is a combination of the changes of interest rate and exchange rate from some arbitrary base period, we find that there is a compensation between internal and external monetary conditions (interest rate and exchange rate) for many economies of the euro zone members. Classification JEL : E31, E42, E52, F31.