Interest Rate Movements Research Articles

The dynamics of volatility connectedness in international real estate investment trusts

Using a sample of ten real estate investment trusts (REITs) from July 2004 to June 2017, we find a less similar integration process is taking place in the global REIT markets. The local stock market is a major source of REITs’ volatility connectedness shocks in 80 percent of time. Moreover, the REITs’ volatility connectedness effects are crisis-sensitive and decline more quickly than stocks when the crises went off. Finally, we remind investors to pay attention to economic policy uncertainty, interest rate movements, implied volatility and world stock market returns on REITs’ volatility connectivity over time.

The Interaction between American and European IRS Interest Rates

Abstract European interest rates movements are affected by various internal and external factors. This paper studies the link between European and American short- and long-term interest rates. In particular, we consider the forward interest rates coming from euro and dollar IRS term structures. The econometric techniques employed are co-integration, Granger-causality, OLS and GMM. Our results indicate that European remote settlement forward and long-term interest rates are primarily driven by US rates and confirm that the causality acts mainly from the US to the Eurozone. This was true even during the recent periods of European Central Bank quantitative easing. These factors weaken the ECB’s ability to intervene. In fact, we found the impact of American monetary policy on long-term interest rates to be also relevant for European bonds.

Ceny akcji, produkt krajowy brutto i stopy procentowe: analiza współzależności dla Polski

W artykule przedstawiono wyniki badania współzależności między zmianami głównego indeksu warszawskiej giełdy (WIG) a zmianami produktu krajowego brutto oraz długo‑ i krótkookresowych stóp procentowych w Polsce w latach 2001–2016. Analizę przeprowadzono na danych o kwartalnej częstotliwości, z użyciem metod z zakresu ekonometrii szeregów czasowych, pozwalających na uwzględnienie istnienia autokorelacji w szeregach badanych zmiennych. Wyniki badania sugerują, że stopy zwrotu z akcji sygnalizują z wyprzedzeniem dwóch kwartałów zmiany poziomu aktywności gospodarczej. Jednoczenie wyniki te wskazują na statystycznie istotne, stosunkowo słabe, negatywne powiązanie stóp wzrostu WIG z równoczesnymi zmianami stóp procentowych, przede wszystkim długookresowych. Rezultaty te pozostają zgodne z przytaczanymi argumentami teoretycznymi z obszaru finansów i ekonomii.

Inferring the Shadow Rate from Real Activity

We estimate a shadow rate consistent with the paths of time series capturing real activity. This allows us to quantify the real effects of unconventional monetary policy in terms of equivalent short-term interest rate movements. We find that large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance had significant real effects equivalent of up to a four percent reduction in the federal funds rate.

Australian interest rate movements and A-REITs performance: an analysis by industry sector

Investment managers have traditionally resorted to the Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) as a means to growing portfolio return. The A-REITs have been popular for yielding some of the best returns until 2007, when the global financial market (GFC) collapse led to major fall in values. Since the GFC, with low interest rates the A-REITs have performed well compared to the broader stock and bond markets. Given low expectations of additional monetary easing, future rising interest rate environment can significantly impact A-REIT performance mainly in industry sectors with greater reliance on debt funding. Thus, this research explores the sensitivity of A-REITs performance to changes in short- and long-term interest rates across five sectors: diversified, industrial, retail, office and specialised (non-core) funds. The analysis covers a 21-year period (1995–2016) using the capital asset pricing model. In doing so, the research allows comparison of A-REITs performance at sub-sector level and over different market cycles. Findings indicate that both the diversified and retail sector exhibit strong relationship to market risk, short- and long-term interest rates. Rising short-term interest rates contribute to positive returns while rising long-term interest rates result in lower returns. However, the impacts of movements in interest rates on industrial, specialised (non-core) and office sectors were not well explained by the asset pricing model. This could be due to the relatively small sample size of these funds. Overall, the results suggests that gearing levels and by extension costs of debt, do play a significant role in the returns generating process. The paper offers a well-defined practical implication by suggesting that investors may hedge against interest rate risk by selecting A-REITs sub-sector funds with less leverage and large market capitalisation.

Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia

Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.

Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance

This paper studies the effect of demographic change on national saving, global interest rates, and international capital flows, focusing on the role of the public pension system. We develop a small open economy overlapping generations model to illustrate the channels through which demographic variables and pension system generosity interact to affect both private and public saving behavior. We then extend this framework to a two-country setting and simulate scenarios of demographic change and pension reform. We find that the generosity of the pension system plays an important role in determining the movement of the global interest rate and patterns of international capital flows.

A New Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks

Central bank announcements contain both: - a stance on monetary policy - an assessment of the economic outlook When expecting strong growth, central banks usually raise interest rates to stabilize the economy. But an announcement of interest rates higher than the market anticipated may change market participants’ beliefs, leading them to conclude the economy is stronger than they thought. When policy makers and researchers assess monetary non-neutrality, they must consider the distinction between the effect of the central bank’s monetary policy stance and the effects of a shift in fundamentals. I measure this distinction by constructing a monetary policy shock series and applying it to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements. In particular, I examine the high-frequency movements of interest rates in a 30-minute window around the time of the Federal Reserve’s announcement. Because the announcement may reshape expectations about future monetary policy, I use changes in contract rates of interest rate futures settled in both the current and subsequent months. I then project these surprises onto the Federal Reserve’s information set, which is measured by its own economic forecasts preceding each announcement. The monetary policy stance shock is the portion of interest rate surprises which cannot be explained by the economic forecasts. I estimate the causal effects of monetary policy on the financial market and the macro economy using the constructed monetary policy stance shock as an instrument variable. My findings are consistent with the traditional channels of monetary policy non-neutrality. A contractionary monetary policy shock will cause: - an upward revision in private forecasts of the unemployment rate - a downward revision in private forecasts of inflation - a decline in stock prices

MUTUAL ADAPTATION OF INTEREST RATES ON THE MONEY MARKET // MEĐUSOBNA PRILAGOĐAVANJA KAMATNIH STOPA NA TRŽIŠTU NOVCA

Along with the process of globalization, interest rates have become a significant benchmark for the effectiveness of banking policies in the money market. In this regard, the focus of the research is the interdependence of central bank interest rates and interest rates on the interbank money market (EONIA, EURIBOR, LIBOR SONIA and OIS). The paper analyzes the movement of reference interest rates and their variability over time, depending on the effect that the monetary authorities want to achieve. Interest rates on interbank money market and interdependence in the movements of interest rates in the period from 2006 till 2016 have been examined and a positive correlation between them was found. In contrast, the reference interest rates of the leading central banks were moving in line with the monetary authorities’ objectives, so the movements had different directions.During the observed period, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina adjusted the interest rates on the financial markets of euro denominated instruments and yields. The correlation between the interest rates of the European Central Bank for the main refinancing operations and the average weighted interest rate of the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina is justified by the use of the currency board in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Spillovers from Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy: A global VAR Approach

•Spillovers from Japan's QQE to Emerging Asia tended to be positive. .•QQE affected other countries through improvements in confidence and expectations. .•Movements in the shadow interest rate do not fully capture the spillover effects .

Application of threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) in describing adjustment of interest rate of working capital credit to BI rate movement

Knowledge about bank behavior in adjusting the interest rate to BI rate movement is important not only for debtors to make a decision to borrow money, but also for government to know whether BI rate as a monetary policy tool success in influencing the movement of interest rate. The approach used for analyzing the data in this paper is TVECM. The data used in this paper are interest rate of working capital credit of conventional bank and BI rate of January 2008–July 2016. Bank is more agressive in correcting the disequilibrium by increasing the interest rate of working capital credit than decreasing it. Interest rate of working capital credit is significantly adjusted by bank approximately 64.95% of its disequilibrium when the disequilibrium is lower than 0.96. When it is between 0.96 and 0.76, interest rate of working capital credit will be adjusted approximately 11.87% of its disequilibrium.When it is higher than 0.76, interest rate of working capital credit will be adjusted approximately 11.88% of its disequilibrium. Moderate interest rate of working capital credit based on BI rate consideration is between 1.74 BI rate –0.96 and 1.74 BI rate +0.76. According to the selection criteria values, TVECM is better than VECM and VAR in modeling relationship between BI rate and interest rate of working capital.

Contagion Effects of Monetary Policy on the JSE ALSI

This study will investigate the effect of changes in monetary policy variables on the South African stock market. The component variable under study is the JSE ALSI and its responsiveness to movements in interest rates, money supply and the rand-dollar exchange rates. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Arbitrage Pricing Model provide a benchmark for setting stock prices. In this paper the aforementioned variables are tested and integrated in these models to determine how much of an effect they have on the stock index. The study will use Granger Causality tests, unit root tests and the standard Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method to interrogate the hypotheses put forward relating the JSE ALSI and interest rates, money supply and exchange rates. The main argument put forward is that monetary policy does significantly impact stock index movements and hence it is imperative to monitor the relationship so as to control for adverse contagion effects during economic shocks.

Low Frequency Drivers of the Real Interest Rate: A Band Spectrum Regression Approach

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the underlying drivers of the real interest rate in advanced economies over the last 35 years. We adopt a band spectrum regression approach, which allows to study the link between the real interest rate and its determinants only over low frequencies, leaving aside business cycle fluctuations and high frequency noise. Spectral regressions are pooled across countries, allowing for country fixed effects. Our findings indicate that important factors affecting the long-term movements of real interest rates are the evolution of total factor productivity (with a specific role for human capital accumulation) and demographic trends. Monetary policy developments and changes in income inequality, instead, appear to play a limited part. According to our estimates, over recent years the natural rate of interest fell below zero in the euro area. Finally, the paper provides an empirical contribution to the debate on secular stagnation, suggesting that supply-side mechanisms were one of the most significant factors behind the fall in income growth in the advanced economies over the last two decades.

Monetary Transmission: Testing the Post-Keynesian View After the Great Recession

Abstract The paper presents an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that the Post-Keynesian (PK) view of structuralist endogeneity continues to explain the interest rate movements following the Great Recession of 2007–2009. We test the hypothesis by analyzing monthly data from the U.S. economy covering the period 2009:07 to 2016:05 using the unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model and the Granger causality tests. The findings from our paper support the structuralist PK view, which indicates the importance of the interest rate channel of monetary transmission. JEL classifications: E52, E58

Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach

We use a simple quantitative asset pricing model to reverse-engineer the sequences of stochastic shocks to housing demand and lending standards that are needed to exactly replicate the boom-bust patterns in U.S. household real estate value and mortgage debt over the period 1995 to 2012. Conditional on the observed paths for U.S. disposable income growth and the mortgage interest rate, we consider four different specifications of the model that vary according to the way that household expectations are formed (rational versus moving average forecast rules) and the maturity of the mortgage contract (one-period versus long-term). We find that the model with moving average forecast rules and long-term mortgage debt does best in plausibly matching the patterns observed in the data. Counterfactual simulations show that shifting lending standards (as measured by a loan-to-equity limit) were an important driver of the episode while movements in the mortgage interest rate were not. All models deliver rapid consumption growth during the boom, negative consumption growth during the Great Recession, and sluggish consumption growth during the recovery when households are deleveraging.

A theoretical model of jump diffusion-mean reversion

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical model of a jump diffusion-mean reversion constant proportion portfolio insurance strategy under the presence of transaction cost and stochastic floor as opposed to the deterministic floor used in the previous literatures.Design/methodology/approachThe paper adopts Merton’s jump diffusion (JD) model to simulate the price path followed by risky assets and the CIR mean reversion model to simulate the path followed by the short-term interest rate. The floor of the CPPI strategy is linked to the stochastic process driving the value of a fixed income instrument whose yield follows the CIR mean reversion model. The developed model is benchmarked against CNX-NIFTY 50 and is back tested during the extreme regimes in the Indian market using the scenario-based Monte Carlo simulation technique.FindingsBack testing the algorithm using Monte Carlo simulation across the crisis and recovery phases of the 2008 recession regime revealed that the portfolio performs better than the risky markets during the crisis by hedging the downside risk effectively and performs better than the fixed income instruments during the growth phase by leveraging on the upside potential. This makes it a value-enhancing proposition for the risk-averse investors.Originality/valueThe study modifies the CPPI algorithm by re-defining the floor of the algorithm to be a stochastic mean reverting process which is guided by the movement of the short-term interest rate in the economy. This development is more relevant for two reasons: first, the short-term interest rate changes with time, and hence the constant yield during each rebalancing steps is not practically feasible; second, the historical literatures have revealed that the short-term interest rate tends to move opposite to that of the equity market. Thereby, during the bear run the floor will increase at a higher rate, whereas the growth of the floor will stagnate during the bull phase which aids the model to capitalize on the upward potential during the growth phase and to cut down on the exposure during the crisis phase.

A qualitative inquiry into Islamic home financing: evidence from Malaysia

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the development of Islamic home financing and some of its practical issues. In addition, the study also intends to draw attention to some recommendations to the issues highlighted from the viewpoint of industrial experts.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology for this study follows the qualitative research approach which aims to capture the thoughts and extensive knowledge of a few related experts in the field. Eight respondents who are mainly scholars and bankers in Islamic banking were selected for the interview purpose. A semi-structured interview was adopted to investigate a series of themes concerning the Islamic home financing in Malaysia.FindingsIn terms of development, the findings showed that a majority of the participants agreed that the Islamic banking and finance (IBF) is developing in line with its counterpart – the conventional banks. This is due to its innovation in products as well as offering a variety of financial products including home financing. Some of the practical issues highlighted by the respondents include pricing, adherence to conventional framework and interest rate movement. Islamic home financing is argued to be much more expensive and faces difficulty in working within a conventional framework. The issue of interest rate movement is also becoming a major hurdle in Islamic banking due to the absence of a proper benchmark for IBF. At present, IBF still follows the benchmark set by its conventional counterpart. Furthermore, the respondents also believed that the product of home financing, together with other financial products, are not in line with the teaching of Shariah principles and guideline. In addressing those issues, the respondents provided some suggestions to counter those problems, which include promoting Islamic home financing, particularly in terms of Musharakah Mutanaqisah (MM), ensuring the transparency of products, strengthening due diligence, legal aspect and others.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is limited in terms of the relatively small number of respondents used to generate its findings. Time constraint is another limiting factor of the research. Additionally, potential respondents in a higher position were unable to take part in the study. Due to these factors, the generalisation of the study’s findings will be visibly restricted.Practical implicationsThis paper is expected to generate several practical implications. Firstly, the study’s exploration of the issues surrounding home financing will likely provide a general overview of the recent development in Islamic banking and the challenges it faces. Consequently, this will indirectly help policymakers and bankers alike to design a better policy when dealing with Islamic home financing issues. In the review of various literatures in the field, a majority of research studies were observed to mainly focus on a quantitative approach. Hence, in terms of methodological innovation, the study’s use of qualitative inquiry based on an interview method may provide a deeper understanding of the matter. The resolutions proposed by the various experts are hoped to contribute to shaping a better framework and system in Islamic and conventional home financing in Malaysia.Originality/valueDespite having many literatures revealing mixed results concerning Islamic home financing, especially the Bai Bithaman Ajil and MM, addressing the issues of Islamic home financing, particularly from an expert perspective, has been lacking. The majority of research studies claim those issues from a theoretical viewpoint rather than a practical one. With this gap and lack of initiative, the current study is motivated to undertake an in-depth analysis on the issues of Islamic home financing and how to address those arising issues from an industrial expert’s point of view via a qualitative approach.

Margin Procyclicality and Systemic Risk

We develop a model in which margin procyclicality, asset market depth and banks' propensity for liquidity hoarding interact to generate a systemic liquidity crisis. In this model, banks trade derivatives to hedge market risk or to speculate on interest rate movements. To mitigate counterparty credit risk, daily mark-to-market is required which results in daily margin calls. We show that when banks holdings of high quality liquid assets are insufficient to cover a margin call, banks hoard liquidity in the interbank market. Other banks might do the same leading to a liquidity hoarding contagion that is exacerbated by high interbank connectivity. We also show that distressed banks that do not have access to the interbank market sell their less liquid assets leading to consecutive declines in the price of these assets. This fire sale contagion is more severe if collateral haircuts are excessively high. Finally, we find that the propagation of systemic risk is unaffected by whether derivatives are centrally or bilaterally cleared, assuming the same daily mark-to-market rules apply.

Balance sheet effects on monetary and financial spillovers: The East Asian crisis plus 20

We study how the financial conditions in the Center Economies [the U.S., Japan, and the Euro area] impact other countries over the period 1986 through 2015. Our methodology relies upon a two-step approach. We focus on five possible linkages between the center economies (CEs) and the non-Center economics, or peripheral economies (PHs), and investigate the strength of these linkages. For each of the five linkages, we first regress a financial variable of the PHs on financial variables of the CEs while controlling for global factors. Next, we examine the determinants of sensitivity to the CEs as a function of country-specific macroeconomic conditions and policies, including the exchange rate regime, currency weights, monetary, trade and financial linkages with the CEs, the levels of institutional development, and international reserves. Extending our previous work (Aizenman et al., 2016), we devote special attention to the impact of currency weights in the implicit currency basket, balance sheet exposure, and currency composition of external debt. We find that for both policy interest rates and the real exchange rate (REER), the link with the CEs has been pervasive for developing and emerging market economies in the last two decades, although the movements of policy interest rates are found to be more sensitive to global financial shocks around the time of the emerging markets’ crises in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and since 2008. When we estimate the determinants of the extent of connectivity, we find evidence that the weights of major currencies, external debt, and currency compositions of debt are significant factors. More specifically, having a higher weight on the dollar (or the euro) makes the response of a financial variable such as the REER and exchange market pressure in the PHs more sensitive to a change in key variables in the U.S. (or the euro area) such as policy interest rates and the REER. While having more exposure to external debt would have similar impacts on the financial linkages between the CEs and the PHs, the currency composition of international debt securities does matter. Economies more reliant on dollar-denominated debt issuance tend to be more vulnerable to shocks emanating from the U.S.

Wavelet-based monetary and fiscal policy in the Euro area

This paper first applies the MODWT (Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform) to Euro area quarterly GDP data from 1995 to 2014 to obtain the underlying cyclical structure of the GDP components. We then design optimal fiscal and monetary policy within a large state-space LQ-tracking wavelet decomposition model. Our study builds a MATLAB program that simulates optimal policy thrusts at each frequency range where: (1) both fiscal and monetary policy are emphasized, (2) only fiscal policy is relatively active, and (3) when only monetary policy is relatively active. The results show that the monetary authorities should utilize a strategy that influences the short-term market interest rate to undulate based on the cyclical wavelet decomposition in order to compute the optimal timing and levels for the aggregate interest rate adjustments. Given that central bank rates are adjusted in discrete steps, this implies that central bank monetary policy adjustments will be sub-optimal. We also find that modest emphasis on active interest rate movements can alleviate much of the volatility in optimal government spending, while rendering similarly favorable levels of aggregate consumption and investment. This research is the first to construct joint fiscal and monetary policies in an applied optimal control model based on the short and long cyclical lag structures obtained from wavelet analysis.