Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation Research Articles

Evapotranspiration and its partitioning during and following a mountain pine beetle infestation of a lodgepole pine stand in the interior of British Columbia, Canada

IntroductionMassive tree mortality events in western Canada due to widespread infestation by mountain pine beetle (MPB) are expected to impact local-to-regional evapotranspiration (ET) dynamics during and after a disturbance. How ecosystem-level ET and its components may vary with canopy-tree mortality (treefall) and subsequent understory recovery remains unclear.MethodsWe used 10 years of continuous eddy-covariance and remote-sensing data (2007–2016) and machine-learning models based on random forest and xgboost to determine forest- and climate-driven effects at temporal scales appropriate for a lodgepole pine-dominated stand following a major, five-year MPB disturbance initiated in the summer of 2006.ResultsTotal annual ET over the 10 years ranged from 207.2 to 384.6 mm, with annual plant transpiration (T) contributing to 57 ± 5.4% (mean ± standard deviation) of annual ET. Annual ET initially declined (2007–2011) and then increased (2011–2016), with ET and T/ET increasing at statistically non-significant rates of approximately 3.2 and 1.2% per year from 2007 to 2016. Air temperature (Ta) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) were the most important predictors of seasonal variation in ET and T/ET during the 10-year period, with high Ta, VPD, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) causing ET and T/ET to increase. Annual ET increased with both increasing spring Ta and decreasing VPD. Annual T/ET was shown to increase with increasing VPD and decrease with increasing volumetric soil water content at a 5-cm depth (VWC5). Enhanced vegetation index (EVI, an indicator of canopy greenness) lagged T and overstory tree mortality, whereas previous- and current-year values of EVI were shown to be poor predictors of annual ET and T/ET.Discussion and conclusionsThese findings suggest that the promotion of climate factors on forest ecosystem-level water vapor fluxes may offset reductions promoted by MPB outbreaks. Climate processes affected water vapor fluxes more than biotic factors, like stand greenness, highlighting the need to include climate-regulatory mechanisms in predictive models of ET dynamics during and subsequent to stand disturbance. Climate and forest-greenness effects on water vapor fluxes need to be explored at even longer time scales, e.g., at decadal scales, to capture long-drawn-out trends associated with stand disturbance and its subsequent recovery.

The impact of mountain pine beetle outbreaks and their treatment methods on the abundance of plant-foods important to caribou and grizzly bears

In Alberta, Canada, mountain pine beetle (MPB) infestations overlap with threatened caribou and grizzly bear ranges. While MPB is a natural part of the ecosystem, increased intensity of infestation due to fire suppression and a changing climate has required mitigating actions in the form of MPB control treatments, including accelerated forest harvesting, prescribed burns, and single-tree cut and burn. However, little is known on how MPB and MPB treatments affect understory shrub and forb forage taxa important to threatened caribou and grizzly bear populations. Using data collected in west-central and north-west Alberta, we investigated how the occurrence and abundance of 25 shrub and forb taxa varied among MPB kill, MPB treatments: single-tree cut and burn, harvesting, fire, and uncut forest strata. We determined that MPB kill and MPB treatments impacted 13 forage taxa preferred by threatened caribou and grizzly bear populations. These caribou and grizzly bear forage taxa generally had a positive response to MPB kill and single-tree cut and burn, a positive response to fire, or a positive response to MPB kill, single-tree cut and burn, and fire. Our results suggest that less-intensive MPB treatments like single-tree cut and burn might balance the threat of MPB against maintaining food resources and habitat for threatened species. As MPB continues to be a significant problem in Alberta and across the boreal forest, the results from our study, combined with ongoing assessments on the impact of MPB on wildlife species will provide essential information for evidence-based landscape management.

Cumulative forest disturbances decrease runoff in two boreal forested watersheds of the northern interior of British Columbia, Canada

In relatively large, forested watersheds, different types of forest disturbances such as timber harvesting, wildfire, and insect infestation often cumulatively and interactively affect runoff. There is a general lack of studies examining cumulative hydrological impacts caused by different types of forest disturbance, particularly in boreal forested watersheds. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of cumulative forest disturbances (timber harvesting, mountain pine beetle (MPB) infestation, and wildfire) on annual runoff in two large, forested watersheds situated in the boreal northern interior of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The study period was divided into the reference period of 1981 to 2003 and the disturbance period of 2004 to 2018. Time series analysis (cross-correlation) was used to determine the statistical relationship between cumulative forest disturbances and annual runoff, while two quantification methods including the modified double mass curve (MDMC) and a sensitivity-based technique were applied to separate the effects of cumulative forest disturbances and climate variability to annual runoff. Surprisingly, our results contradict the well-accepted conclusion that annual runoff increases with forest disturbances. We found that cumulative forest disturbances overall decreased annual runoff in the study watersheds, with varied reductions depending on severities of dominated disturbance types and post-disturbance forest dynamics. Our results also revealed that both cumulative forest disturbance and climate variability played an additive role in decreasing annual runoff during the entire disturbance period. These results provide valuable implications for supporting water management in boreal forested watersheds in the context of the warming climate.

How does water yield respond to mountain pine beetle infestation in a semiarid forest?

Abstract. Mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks in the western United States result in widespread tree mortality, transforming forest structure within watersheds. While there is evidence that these changes can alter the timing and quantity of streamflow, there is substantial variation in both the magnitude and direction of hydrologic responses, and the climatic and environmental mechanisms driving this variation are not well understood. Herein, we coupled an eco-hydrologic model (RHESSys) with a beetle effects model and applied it to a semiarid watershed, Trail Creek, in the Bigwood River basin in central Idaho, USA, to examine how varying degrees of beetle-caused tree mortality influence water yield. Simulation results show that water yield during the first 15 years after beetle outbreak is controlled by interactions between interannual climate variability, the extent of vegetation mortality, and long-term aridity. During wet years, water yield after a beetle outbreak increased with greater tree mortality; this was driven by mortality-caused decreases in evapotranspiration. During dry years, water yield decreased at low-to-medium mortality but increased at high mortality. The mortality threshold for the direction of change was location specific. The change in water yield also varied spatially along aridity gradients during dry years. In wetter areas of the Trail Creek basin, post-outbreak water yield decreased at low mortality (driven by an increase in ground evaporation) and increased when vegetation mortality was greater than 40 % (driven by a decrease in canopy evaporation and transpiration). In contrast, in more water-limited areas, water yield typically decreased after beetle outbreaks, regardless of mortality level (although the driving mechanisms varied). Our findings highlight the complexity and variability of hydrologic responses and suggest that long-term (i.e., multi-decadal mean) aridity can be a useful indicator for the direction of water yield changes after a disturbance.

Wildfire risk and response in Jasper National Park, Alberta: Application of an adaptation readiness framework

Environmental change associated with warmer temperatures is creating unprecedented conditions in natural regions and ecosystems. In Jasper National Park, Alberta, climate change, historical fire management practices, and the mountain pine beetle infestation are combining to increase the risk of a major wildfire. The intent of this short viewpoint is to provide a primer for decision makers. The application of an adaptation readiness framework highlights areas where the Park's level of preparedness for wildfire adaptation is well developed and areas in need of further attention. Areas where adaptation is well developed include political leadership, decision making, and stakeholder engagement. Further attention is necessary around institutional organizations, funding, and public support.

Detecting subtle change from dense Landsat time series: Case studies of mountain pine beetle and spruce beetle disturbance

In contrast to abrupt changes caused by land cover conversion, subtle changes driven by a shift in the condition, structure, or other biological attributes of land often lead to minimal and slower alterations of the terrestrial surface. Accurate mapping and monitoring of subtle change are crucial for an early warning of long-term gradual change that may eventually result in land cover conversion. Freely accessible moderate-resolution datasets such as the Landsat archive have great potential to characterize subtle change by capturing low-magnitude spectral changes in long-term observations. However, past studies have reported limited success in accurately extracting subtle changes from satellite-based time series analysis. In this study, we introduce a supervised framework named ‘PIDS’ to detect subtle forest disturbance from a comprehensive Landsat data archive by leveraging disturbance-based calibration sites. PIDS consists of four components: (1) Parameter optimization; (2) Index selection; (3) Dynamic stratified monitoring; and (4) Spatial consideration. PIDS was applied to map the early stage of bark beetle infestations (i.e., a lower per-pixel fraction of trees cover that show visual signs of infestation), which are a typical example of subtle change in conifer forests. Landsat Analysis Ready Data were used as the time series inputs for mapping mountain pine beetle and spruce beetle disturbance between 2001 and 2019 in Colorado, USA. PIDS-detection map assessment showed that the overall performance of PIDS (namely ‘F1 score’) was 0.86 for mountain pine beetle and 0.73 for spruce beetle, making a substantial improvement (> 0.3) compared to other approaches/products including COntinuous monitoring of Land Disturbance, LandTrendr, and the National Land Cover Database forest disturbance product. A sub-pixel analysis of tree canopy mortality percentage was performed by linking classified high-resolution (0.3- and 1-m) aerial imagery and 30-m PIDS-detection maps. Results show that PIDS typically detects mountain pine beetle infestation when ≥56% of a Landsat pixel is occupied by red-stage canopy mortality (one year after initial infestation), and spruce beetle infestation when ≥55% is occupied by gray-stage mortality (two years after initial infestation). This study addresses an important methodological goal pertinent to the utility of event-based reference samples for detecting subtle forest change, which could be potentially applied to other types of subtle land change.

Dramatic increase in water use efficiency with cumulative forest disturbance at the large forested watershed scale

BackgroundForest disturbance induced changes in the coupling of forest carbon and water have important implications for ecosystem functioning and sustainable forest management. However, this is rarely investigated at the large watershed scale with cumulative forest disturbance. We used a combination of techniques including modeling, statistical analysis, and machine learning to investigate the effects of cumulative forest disturbance on water use efficiency (WUE, a proxy for carbon and water coupling) in the 19,200 km2 Chilcotin watershed situated in the central interior of British Columbia, Canada. Harvesting, wildfire, and a severe Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) infestation have gradually cumulated over the 45-year study period, and the watershed reached a cumulative equivalent clear-cut area of 10% in 1999 and then 40% in 2016.ResultsSurprisingly, with the dramatic forest disturbance increase from 2000 to 2016 which was mainly due to MPB, watershed-level carbon stocks and sequestration showed an insignificant reduction. This resilience was mainly due to landscape-level carbon dynamics that saw a balance between a variety of disturbance rates and types, an accumulation of older stand types, and fast growing young regenerated forests. Watershed-level carbon sequestration capacity was sustained, measured by Net Primary Production (NPP). A concurrent significant decrease in annual evapotranspiration (ET), led to a 19% increase in WUE (defined as the ratio of NPP to ET), which is contrary to common findings after disturbance at the forest stand-level. During this period of high disturbance, ET was the dominant driver of the WUE increase.ConclusionsWe conclude that disturbance-driven forest dynamics and the appropriate scale must be considered when investigating carbon and water relationship. In contrast to the stand-level trade-off relationship between carbon and water, forested watersheds may be managed to maintain timber, carbon and water resources across large landscapes.

Integrating Neighborhood Effect and Supervised Machine Learning Techniques to Model and Simulate Forest Insect Outbreaks in British Columbia, Canada

Background and Objectives: Modelling and simulation of forest land cover change due to epidemic insect outbreaks are powerful tools that can be used in planning and preparing strategies for forest management. In this study, we propose an integrative approach to model land cover changes at a provincial level, using as a study case the simulation of the spatiotemporal dynamics of mountain pine beetle (MPB) infestation over the lodgepole pine forest of British Columbia (BC), Canada. This paper aims to simulate land cover change by applying supervised machine learning techniques to maps of MPB-driven deforestation. Materials and Methods: We used a 16-year series (1999–2014) of spatial information on annual mortality of pine trees due to MPB attacks, provided by the BC Ministry of Forests. We used elevation, aspect, slope, ruggedness, and weighted neighborhood of infestation as predictors. We implemented (a) generalized linear regression (GLM), and (b) random forest (RF) algorithms to simulate forestland cover changes due to MPB between 2005 and 2014. To optimize the ability of our models to predict MPB infestation in 2020, a cross-validation procedure was implemented. Results: Simulating infestations from 2008 to 2014, RF algorithms produced less error than GLM. Our simulations for the year 2020 confirmed the predictions from the BC Ministry of Forest by forecasting a slower rate of spread in future MPB infestations in the province. Conclusions: Integrating neighborhood effects as variables in model calibration allows spatiotemporal complexities to be simulated.

Exploiting the full potential of Bayesian networks in predictive ecology

Abstract Although ecological models used to make predictions from underlying covariates have a record of success, they also suffer from limitations. They are typically unable to make predictions when the value of one or more covariates is missing during the testing. Missing values can be estimated but methods are often unreliable and can result in poor accuracy. Similarly, missing values during the training can hinder parameter estimation of many ecological models. Bayesian networks can handle these and other limiting issues, such as having highly correlated covariates. However, they are rarely used to their full potential. Indeed, Bayesian networks are commonly used to evaluate the knowledge of experts by constructing the network manually and often (incorrectly) interpreting the resulting network causally. We provide an approach to learn a Bayesian network fully from observed data, without relying on experts and show how to appropriately interpret the resulting network, both to identify how the variables (covariates and target) are interrelated and to answer probabilistic queries. We apply this method to the case study of a mountain pine beetle infestation and find that the trained Bayesian network has a predictive accuracy of 0.88 AUC. We classify the covariates as primary and secondary in terms of contributing to the prediction and show that the predictive accuracy does not deteriorate when the secondary covariates are missing and degrades to only 0.76 when one of the primary covariates is missing. As a complement to the previous work on constructing Bayesian networks by hand, we show that if instead, both the structure and parameters are learned only from data, we can achieve more accurate predictions as well as generate new insights about the underlying processes.

Carbon storage recovery in surviving lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) 11 years after mountain pine beetle attack in northern British Columbia, Canada

We studied the recovery of tree- and stand-level carbon (C) storage in a lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) forest in northern British Columbia that experienced substantial (∼83%) mortality in 2006–2007 (total loss by 2013 = 86%) during a severe mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) infestation. Earlier work suggested that this forest recovered positive annual C storage 3 years after attack based on eddy covariance measurements. We sought to confirm these results by examining C storage in surviving pine trees using tree core analysis. Average growth release of surviving lodgepole pine trees was 392% (range of –53% to 2326%) compared with mean decadal growth prior to MPB attack. Nearly 97% of trees underwent a growth release, considerably higher than the 15%–75% reported for lodgepole pine in previous studies. Mean annual stem C storage of the surviving trees in this study was highly correlated (r = 0.88) with 10 years of annual net ecosystem productivity estimates made using the eddy covariance technique, indicating that surviving lodgepole pine remain an important part of C recovery after MPB attack. Mean annual stem C storage was also highly correlated (r = 0.92) with the cumulative percentage of downed stems per hectare at the site, suggesting that increased availability of resources is likely assisting the growth release.

Local-level emergence of network governance within the U.S. Forest Service: A case study of mountain pine beetle outbreak from Colorado, USA

In the U.S. and around the world, governmental and non-governmental actors are piloting network governance approaches to fill gaps in governance resources (management capacity, local legitimacy) that cannot be met by a single entity alone. Such resources are needed to respond adaptively to changing conditions, such as those posed by severe disturbance. The purpose of this study is to provide insight into the drivers, pathways, and outcomes of network governance emergence within a federal bureaucracy, that of the U.S. Forest Service. We aim to shed light on the local variability of emergent network types (partnerships, collaboratives, combination types). We conducted case study research on responses to a severe mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) infestation (~1996–2012) on the Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests in northern Colorado, USA. We applied a multi-level analysis, comprised of bottom-up, top-down, and “from around” (pre-existing network) factors, to three examples of MPB outbreak-driven network emergence. The examples vary in their combination of geographic location (Western Slope vs. Front Range) and scale (local vs. regional). Our analysis revealed: (1) network type and governance outcomes varied due to interlinked, multi-level factors (predominant gaps in governance resources, bottom-up factors, and pre-existing networks); (2) USFS managers and counterparts exercised agency in navigating top-down bureaucratic constraints on network governance emergence; (3) state, local, industry, and NGO entities, along with federal counterparts, co-initiated network governance of federal lands; (4) emergent networks generally did not persist in the large bureaucracy after the aftermath subsided. This study's findings are applicable to governance networks associated with land management bureaucracies in the U.S. and around the world.

Reconstructing historical outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine forests in the Colorado Front Range

Regional-scale mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in the first decade of the 2000s affected millions of hectares of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in western North American forests. In Colorado, 1.4 million ha exhibited high mortality. These events prompted questions about whether historical outbreaks reached the scale of this most recent event. We aimed to reconstruct past mortality events in lodgepole pine forests in the northern Colorado Front Range and to determine whether these were of similar extent to the 2000s outbreak. We identified logs of mountain pine beetle-killed trees based on visually identifiable signs of beetle infestation including lower bole breakage, egg galleries, exit holes, and the presence of blue stain. We collected cross-sections, developed tree ring chronologies and determined death dates through tree ring analysis. We detected five mortality events since the 1860s, including widely distributed mortality in the 1910s that was geographically as extensive as the 2000s outbreak in our study area. Trees killed were on average 232 years of age and 36 cm in diameter. In our study area, it takes about 200 years for a lodgepole pine to reach the size suitable for mountain pine beetle attack. We conclude that mountain pine beetle infestation signs remain useful for identifying mountain pine beetle-caused tree mortality for over a century and that well-distributed mountain pine beetle-caused mortality has occurred in the past in the northern Colorado Front Range. Future reconstructions of bark beetle-caused mortality may benefit from integrating the use of beetle symptomatology with growth releases. The inclusion of stand demography and fire history will present a holistic picture of how disturbance interactions create the mosaic of forest landscapes. Awareness of the disturbance histories in forests and the legacies of past events advances understanding of their ecology and will inform researchers and managers in developing management strategies to foster sustainable delivery of ecosystem services and maintain resiliency as climate change manifests.

Factors governing outbreak dynamics in a forest intensively managed for mountain pine beetle

Mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks have caused major economic losses and ecological consequences in North American pine forests. Ecological and environmental factors impacting MPB life-history and stands susceptibility can help with the detection of MPB infested trees and thereby, improve control. Temperatures, water stress, host characteristics, and beetle pressure are among those ecological and environmental factors. They play different roles on MPB population dynamics at the various stages of an outbreak and these roles can be affected by intensive management. However, to make detailed connections between ecological and environmental variables and MPB outbreak phases, a deeper quantitative analysis on local scales is needed. Here, we used logistic regressions on a highly-detailed and georeferenced data set to determine the factors driving MPB infestations for the different phases of the current isolated MPB outbreak in Cypress Hills. While we showed that the roles of ecological and environmental factors in a forest intensively controlled for MPB are consistent with the literature for uncontrolled forests, we determined how these factors shifted through onset, peak, and collapse phases of the intensively controlled forest. MPB presence mostly depends on nearby beetle pressure, notably for the outbreak peak. However additional weather and host variables are necessary to achieve high predictive ability for MPB outbreak locations. Our results can help managers make appropriate decisions on where and how to focus their effort, depending on which phase the outbreak is in.

Within-Stand Distribution of Tree Mortality Caused by Mountain Pine Beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins.

The mountain pine beetle (MPB) (Dendroctonus ponderosae) is a bark beetle that attacks and kills ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), among other pine species throughout the western conifer forests of the United States and Canada, particularly in dense stands comprising large trees. There is information on the stand conditions that the insect prefers. However, there is a paucity of information on how small-scale variation in stand conditions influences the distribution of tree mortality within a stand. I examined the small-scale distribution of ponderosa pine basal area pre- and post a mountain pine beetle infestation, and used geostatistical modeling to relate the spatial distribution of the host to subsequent MPB-caused tree mortality. Results indicated increased mortality in the denser parts of the stand. Previous land management has changed historically open low-elevation ponderosa pine stands with aggregated tree distribution into dense stands that are susceptible to mountain pine beetles and intense fires. Current restoration efforts are aimed at reducing tree density and leaving clumps of trees, which are more similar to historical conditions. The residual clumps, however, may be susceptible to mountain pine beetle populations. Land managers will want to be cognizant of how mountain pine beetles will respond to restoration treatments, so as to prevent and mitigate tree mortality that could negate restoration efforts.

Juvenile thinning can effectively mitigate the effects of drought on tree growth and water consumption in a young Pinus contorta stand in the interior of British Columbia, Canada

Large-scale forest disturbances including mountain pine beetle infestation and forest fires have generated overstocked lodgepole pine stands in the interior of British Columbia. A critical need is to determine sustainable management strategies to ensure their healthy growth and provision of various ecological functions under increased drought risk due to climate change. In 2016, a field experiment was established to study the effects of juvenile thinning on carbon assimilation and water use at the both tree- and stand-scales in a 16-year old lodgepole pine stand from June to October in 2016 and 2017. This study located northeast of Penticton, British Columbia, included two thinning treatments (T1: 4500 stems per ha; and T2: 1100 stems per ha) and one control (C: 27,000 stems per ha), randomly assigned in three blocks. Sap flow and microclimatic variables were continuously monitered in one plot of each treatment in one block, while tree diameter at breast height were measured across the three blocks. The results showed that C had the lowest tree radial growth (0.14 mm2/d), sap flow velocity (64.61 g/cm2d), and highest stand transpiration (4.36 mm/d), while T2 had the highest tree radial growth (1.28 mm2/d), sap flow velocity (149.14 g/cm2d), and lowest stand transpiration (0.36 mm/d) over the two-year study period. Significant differences of tree radial growth and sap flow velocity between T1 and T2 only occurred under the drought condition (in the summer season of 2017), with T2 having a significant higher resistant index of sap flow velocity than C and T1, by taking advantage of the change in microclimatic conditions following intense thinning. At the stand-level, only the stand transpiration of T1 statistically decreased in the drought year. We conclude that the thinning plays a significant and positive role in maintaining tree growth and water consumption in the short term, and the more heavily thinning (T2) would be more effective to mitigate the drought effect in young overstocking lodgepole pine forests in terms of water consumption. These findings improve our understanding on how thinning can be used to manage ecological responses to forest practices in a changing climate.

Determining contemporary and historical sediment sources in a large drainage basin impacted by cumulative effects: the regulated Nechako River, British Columbia, Canada

PurposeSediment dynamics in most large river basins are influenced by a variety of different natural and anthropogenic pressures, and disentangling these cumulative effects remains a challenge. This study determined the contemporary and historical sources of fine-grained (< 63-μm) sediment in a large, regulated river basin and linked changes in sources to activities in the basin. The river has seen declines in chinook salmon, sockeye salmon, and the endangered Nechako white sturgeon populations, and sediment (both fine-grained and sands) transport and deposition have been identified as potential causes of these declines.Materials and methodsSamples of suspended sediment and potential source materials were collected from numerous sites distributed throughout the upper Nechako River Basin in British Columbia, Canada. A floodplain sediment core was also collected in order to reconstruct sediment sources over the last ~ 70 years. Discriminating fingerprint properties were used within the MixSIAR model to apportion sources among sub-basins and land-use types. Results were compared to records of precipitation and Nechako River discharge trends, and to changes in landscape development.Results and discussionContributions from the erosion of channel banks dominated the suspended sediment load at most sites. Changes in sediment sources during the 2015 field season reflected snowmelt and patterns of water release from the Nechako Reservoir that affected the sediment-carrying capacity of tributaries and the Nechako River main stem. Spatial variations in 2015 also reflected the distribution of land use (e.g., forested or agricultural land) as well as topography (e.g., slope steepness). Over the last ~ 70 years, variations in sediment sources and the characteristics of the sediment (e.g., organic matter content and particle size composition) were linked to the construction of the Kenney Dam (operational in 1954) and the impacts of deforestation by the forestry and agricultural industries. Superimposed on these have been wildfires and a major mountain pine beetle infestation leading to higher erosion rates in the affected areas.ConclusionsThe sediment source fingerprinting technique, in combination with historical information on the hydrometeorology and the land use and river management in the basin, has provided valuable information with which to understand sediment dynamics in the Nechako River Basin. Such an approach can help to disentangle how large river systems respond to a combination of natural and anthropogenic pressures.

Management assessment of mountain pine beetle infestation in Cypress Hills, SK

Insect epidemics such as the mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak have a major impact on forest dynamics. In Cypress Hills, Canada, the Forest Service Branch of the Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment aims to control as many new infested trees as possible by conducting ground-based surveys around trees infested in previous years. Given the risk posed by MPB, there is a need to evaluate how well such a control strategy performs. Therefore, the goal of this study is to assess the current detection strategy compared with competing strategies (random search and search based on model predictions via machine learning), while taking management costs into account. Our model predictions via machine learning used a generalized boosted classification tree to predict locations of new infestations from ecological and environmental variables. We then ran virtual experiments to determine control efficiency under the three detection strategies. The classification tree predicts new infested locations with great accuracy (AUC = 0.93). Using model predictions for survey locations gives the highest control efficiency for larger survey areas. Overall, the current detection strategy performs well but control could be more efficient and cost-effective by increasing the survey area, as well as adding locations given by model predictions.

Time-series approach for mapping mountain pine beetle infestation extent and severity in the U.S. Central Rocky Mountains

Severe mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemics can degrade ecosystem services and socioeconomic assets. Mapping outbreak progression provides tools to mitigate damages and analyze MPB attack processes. Current time-series methods for mapping disturbance focus on extent rather than severity. Infestation severity, defined by within-pixel percentage, is more robust for answering a variety of ecologic questions. We develop a time-series regression approach to map infestation severity from 2005 to 2015 in the U.S. Central Rocky Mountains. Covariates include spectral data from all available dates of Landsat imagery, topographic data, and US Forest Service aerial detection survey (ADS) polygons. We collect model reference data by interpreting National Agricultural Imagery Program images. Validation against a randomly selected subset of the data results in no statistical difference between predicted and observed severity. The mean absolute deviation is 7.7% with a root-mean-square error of 9.9%. Average (maximum) severity increased from 9.4% (49.7%) in 2005 to 17.6% (58.8%) in 2015. Our raster maps identify widespread, lower severity infestation absent from the ADS. Our maps can improve mitigation efforts by allowing managers to: address low-severity infestations before they intensify, monitor intensifying infestations within previously identified outbreak extents, and combine infestation severity with other forest metrics.

Designer Niches Promote Seedling Survival in Forest Restoration: A 7-Year Study of Whitebark Pine (Pinus albicaulis) Seedlings in Waterton Lakes National Park

Designer niches in which environmental variables are controlled are useful in forest restoration to enhance survival of planted tree seedlings. Here, we evaluate particular manipulated habitats, on site variables, and pre-seedling conditions hypothesized to improve the survival rate of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) seedlings out-planted in Waterton Lakes National Park. The tree species is in peril due to blister rust and mountain pine beetle infestations in its range; and is a restoration priority in Waterton Lakes because populations in the park are highly infected with blister rust (up to 90%). At Summit Lake, 21 plots were set up and half of each was terra-torched; 1000 seedlings were planted in clusters of three, under four conditions: on burned areas in burned beargrass mats, in burned areas where beargrass mats were not present, in unburned areas where beargrass was present, and in unburned areas without beargrass. This study reports data for the seventh year after planting, and overall, survival was 53% for individual seedlings and at least one seedling survived in 60.8% of clusters. Planting in burned areas increased cluster survival (by 34.3%, p ˂ 0.0001) and planting near microsites increased cluster survival (by 19.3%, p ˂ 0.0001); the type of microsite did not make a difference. Planting in beargrass mats decreased survival, but not significantly (8.9%, p = 0.11) and this was true for burns, not unburned areas. Inoculation with native ectomycorrhizal fungi did not enhance survival most likely because controls on lightly terra-torched and unburned areas had access to local native fungi. This is the first study to report statistics on the planting of seedlings in clusters; the results need to be compared with studies where seedlings are planted individually.

Single-generation effects on terpenoid defenses in lodgepole pine populations following mountain pine beetle infestation.

The recent mountain pine beetle outbreak in western Canada provides an opportunity to study the selection and heritability of tree defenses. We examined terpenoid-based defenses of seedling lodgepole pines which were offspring of mature trees subjected to high levels of mountain pine beetle selective pressure. Seedlings were grown from one of three types of cones: old cones on live trees; young cones on live trees; and cones on trees killed by beetles. Offspring thus represented crosses of non-surviving (NS) x surviving (S), S x S, and NS x NS parents, respectively. Methyl jasmonate was used to induce a defensive reaction in the seedlings. Seed source had a significant effect on levels of ten different terpenes, but not on total terpene concentrations. When the seedlings were grouped by location and treatment type, the seedlings of different cone types could be almost entirely distinguished by terpene profiles.