Abstract
The winter mortality of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) larvae caused by temperatures below survivable thresholds and sudden decreases in temperature is among the most influential factors limiting population growth. Due to the importance of winter mortality in the demise of mountain pine beetle infestations, a widely used winter mortality model was developed at the Canadian Forest Service and the United States Forest Service. It predicts lethal temperatures and survival probabilities given temperature time series over the winter season. We present a rare and possibly the first peer-reviewed validation of this winter mortality model, wherein we independently tested the model at a new region in Canada by comparing model predictions to the observed lower lethal temperature thresholds and cold-associated mortality. Model predictions were biologically reasonable but slightly biased. Bias was exacerbated by the inaccurate translation of air temperature data from weather stations to temperatures under the bark where larvae develop. The spatial prediction of relative mortality observed across the study area in Banff National Park was poor—likely because the mountainous terrain presents a difficult prediction challenge when under-bark temperatures are not directly observed. Our results will help inform users of model constraints and how to optimize the accuracy of model predictions.
Published Version
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
