Volcanic Eruption Of Mount Pinatubo Research Articles

Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks

AbstractThe 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data‐driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatiotemporal climate data. However, ESNs are noninterpretable black‐box models along with other neural networks. The lack of model transparency poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatiotemporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we consider a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which acts as a proxy for an anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection. We are able to use the proposed approach to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event that agree with relationships previously identified by climate scientists.

Description and performance of a sectional aerosol microphysical model in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

Abstract. We implemented the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) in both the high- and low-top model versions of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2). CARMA is a sectional microphysical model, which we use for aerosol in both the troposphere and stratosphere. CARMA is fully coupled to chemistry, clouds, radiation, and transport routines in CESM2. This development enables the comparison of simulations with a sectional (CARMA) and a modal (MAM4) aerosol microphysical model in the same modeling framework. The new implementation of CARMA has been adopted from previous work, with some additions that align with the current CESM2 Modal Aerosol Model (MAM4) implementation. The main updates include an interactive secondary organic aerosol description in CARMA, using the volatility basis set (VBS) approach, updated wet removal, and the use of transient emissions of aerosols and trace gases. In addition, we implemented an alternative aerosol nucleation scheme in CARMA, which is also used in MAM4. Detailed comparisons of stratospheric aerosol properties after the Mount Pinatubo eruption reveal the importance of prescribing sulfur injections in a larger region rather than in a single column to better represent the observed evolution of aerosols. Both CARMA and MAM4 in CESM2 are able to represent stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol properties reasonably well when compared to observations. Several differences in the performance of the two aerosol models show, in general, an improved representation of aerosols when using the sectional aerosol model in CESM2. These include a better representation of the aerosol size distribution after the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption in CARMA compared to MAM4. MAM4 produces on average smaller aerosols and less removal than CARMA, which results in a larger total mass. Both CARMA and MAM4 reproduce the stratospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) within the error bar of the observations between 2001 and 2020, except for recent larger volcanic eruptions that are overestimated by both model configurations. The CARMA background surface area density and aerosol size distribution in the stratosphere and troposphere compare well to observations, with some underestimation of the Aitken-mode size range. MAM4 shows shortcomings in reproducing coarse-mode aerosol distributions in the stratosphere and troposphere. This work outlines additional development needs for CESM2 CARMA to improve the model compared to observations in both the troposphere and stratosphere.

Radiance Simulations in Support of Climate Services

AbstractClimate services are largely supported by climate reanalyses and by satellite Fundamental (Climate) Data Records (F(C)DRs). This paper demonstrates how the development and the uptake of F(C)DR benefit from radiance simulations, using reanalyses and radiative transfer models. We identify three classes of applications, with examples for each application class. The first application is to validate assumptions during F(C)DR development. Hereto we show the value of applying advanced quality controls to geostationary European (Meteosat) images. We also show the value of a cloud mask to study the spatio‐temporal coherence of the impact of the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption between Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the High‐resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) data. The second application is to assess the coherence between reanalyses and observations. Hereto we show the capability of reanalyses to reconstruct spectra observed by the Spektrometer Interferometer (SI‐1) flown on a Soviet satellite in 1979. We also present a first attempt to estimate the random uncertainties from this instrument. Finally, we investigate how advanced bias correction can help to improve the coherence between reanalysis and Nimbus‐3 Medium‐Resolution Infrared Radiometer (MRIR) in 1969. The third application is to inform F(C)DR users about particular quality aspects. We show how simulations can help to make a better‐informed use of the corresponding F(C)DR, taking as examples the Nimbus‐7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) imager, and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Water Vapor Profiler (SSM/T‐2).

A 30-Year Climatology (1990–2020) of Aerosol Optical Depth and Total Column Water Vapor and Ozone over Texas

Abstract A 30-yr time series (4 February 1990–4 February 2020) of aerosol optical depth (AOD) of the atmosphere, total precipitable water (TPW), and total column ozone has been conducted in central Texas using simple, highly stable instruments. All three parameters in this ongoing measurement series exhibited robust annual cycles. They also responded to many atmospheric events, including the historic volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo (1991), a record El Niño (1998), an unprecedented biomass smoke event (1998), and La Niña that caused the driest drought in recorded Texas history (2011). Reduced air pollution caused mean AOD to decline from 0.175 to 0.14. The AOD trend measured for 30 years by a light-emitting diode (LED) sun photometer, the first of its kind, parallels the trend from 20 years of measurements by a modified Microtops II. While TPW responded to El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions, TPW exhibited no trend over the 30 years. The TPW data compare favorably with 4.5 years of simultaneous measurements by a nearby NOAA GPS (r2 = 0.78). The 30 years of ozone measurements compare favorably with those from a series of NASA ozone satellites (r2 = 0.78). In 2016, 194 comparisons of Microtops II and world standard ozone instrument Dobson 83 at the Mauna Loa Observatory agreed within 1.9% (r2 = 0.81). The paper concludes by observing that students and citizen scientists can collect scientifically useful atmospheric data with simple sun photometers that use one or more LEDs as spectrally selective photodiodes.

Pinatubo Volcanic Eruption Exacerbated an Abrupt Coral Mortality Event in 1991 Summer

AbstractWidespread coral bleaching and mortality associated with global warming have occurred frequently since the phenomenon was first documented in the early 1980s. One such episode that occurred in 1991 over the tropical Pacific‐Indian Ocean region has been attributed to high summer sea surface temperatures. However, we found that sea surface temperature values from the South China Sea region do not provide a comprehensive explanation for the event. Our results, based on time series records of rare earth elements, trace element Al/Ca ratios, and microdomain images from corals in the South China Sea, suggest that this coral mortality event was exacerbated by heavy ash fallout from the cataclysmic 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings highlight the profound impact of a volcanic eruption on the modern vulnerable coral reef ecosystems, already under the stress of global warming.

Impact of a moderate volcanic eruption on chemistry in the lower stratosphere: balloon-borne observations and model calculations

Abstract. The major volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 has been shown to have significant effects on stratospheric chemistry and ozone depletion even at midlatitudes. Since then, only moderate but recurrent volcanic eruptions have modulated the stratospheric aerosol loading and are assumed to be one cause for the reported increase in the global aerosol content over the past 15 years. This particularly enhanced aerosol context raises questions about the effects on stratospheric chemistry which depend on the latitude, altitude and season of injection. In this study, we focus on the midlatitude Sarychev volcano eruption in June 2009, which injected 0.9 Tg of sulfur dioxide (about 20 times less than Pinatubo) into a lower stratosphere mainly governed by high-stratospheric temperatures. Together with in situ measurements of aerosol amounts, we analyse high-resolution in situ and/or remote-sensing observations of NO2, HNO3 and BrO from balloon-borne infrared and UV–visible spectrometers launched in Sweden in August–September 2009. It is shown that differences between observations and three-dimensional (3-D) chemistry-transport model (CTM) outputs are not due to transport calculation issues but rather reflect the chemical impact of the volcanic plume below 19 km altitude. Good measurement–model agreement is obtained when the CTM is driven by volcanic aerosol loadings derived from in situ or space-borne data. As a result of enhanced N2O5 hydrolysis in the Sarychev volcanic aerosol conditions, the model calculates reductions of ∼ 45 % and increases of ∼ 11 % in NO2 and HNO3 amounts respectively over the August–September 2009 period. The decrease in NOx abundances is limited due to the expected saturation effect for high aerosol loadings. The links between the various chemical catalytic cycles involving chlorine, bromine, nitrogen and HOx compounds in the lower stratosphere are discussed. The increased BrO amounts (∼ 22 %) compare rather well with the balloon-borne observations when volcanic aerosol levels are accounted for in the CTM and appear to be mainly controlled by the coupling with nitrogen chemistry rather than by enhanced BrONO2 hydrolysis. We show that the chlorine partitioning is significantly controlled by enhanced BrONO2 hydrolysis. However, simulated effects of the Sarychev eruption on chlorine activation are very limited in the high-temperature conditions in the stratosphere in the period considered, inhibiting the effect of ClONO2 hydrolysis. As a consequence, the simulated chemical ozone loss due to the Sarychev aerosols is low with a reduction of −22 ppbv (−1.5 %) of the ozone budget around 16 km. This is at least 10 times lower than the maximum ozone depletion from chemical processes (up to −20 %) reported in the Northern Hemisphere lower stratosphere over the first year following the Pinatubo eruption. This study suggests that moderate volcanic eruptions have limited chemical effects when occurring at midlatitudes (restricted residence times) and outside winter periods (high-temperature conditions). However, it would be of interest to investigate longer-lasting tropical volcanic plumes or sulfur injections in the wintertime low-temperature conditions.

Robust Wind and Precipitation Responses to the Mount Pinatubo Eruption, as Simulated in the CMIP5 Models

Abstract The volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 is the largest terrestrial eruption since the beginning of the satellite era. Here, the monthly evolution of atmospheric temperature, zonal winds, and precipitation following the eruption in 14 CMIP5 models is analyzed and strong and robust stratospheric and tropospheric circulation responses are demonstrated in both hemispheres, with tropospheric anomalies maximizing in November 1991. The simulated Southern Hemisphere circulation response projects strongly onto the positive phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), while the Northern Hemisphere exhibits robust North Atlantic and North Pacific responses that differ significantly from that of the typical northern annular mode (NAM) pattern. In contrast, observations show a negative SAM following the eruption, and internal variability must be considered along with forced responses. Indeed, evidence is presented that the observed El Niño climate state during and after this eruption may oppose the eruption-forced positive SAM response, based on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state and SAM response across the models. The results demonstrate that Pinatubo-like eruptions should be expected to force circulation anomalies across the globe and highlight that great care must be taken in diagnosing the forced response as it may not fall into typical seasonal averages or be guaranteed to project onto typical climate modes.

Investigation of weather anomalies in the low-latitude islands of the Indian Ocean in 1991

Abstract. Temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration measurements at meteorological stations across the southern Indian Ocean have been analysed to try to differentiate the possible influence of the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption in the Philippines in June 1991 and the normal weather forcings. During December 1991, precipitation on the tropical islands Glorieuses (11.6° S) and Mayotte (12.8° S) was 4 and 3 times greater, respectively, than the climatological mean (precipitation is greater by more than than twice the standard deviation (SD)). Mean sunshine duration (expressed in sun hours per day) was only 6 h on Mayotte, although the sunshine duration is usually more than 7.5 ± 0.75 h, and on the Glorieuses it was only 5 h, although it is usually 8.5 ± 1 h. Mean and SD of sunshine duration are based on December (1964–2001 for Mayotte, 1966–1999 for the Glorieuses). The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is shown to correlate best with precipitation in this area. Variability controlling the warm zone on these two islands can be increased by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Niño, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and/or solar activity (sunspot number, SSN). However, temperature records of these two islands show weak dependence on such forcings (temperatures are close to the climatological mean for December). This suggests that such weather forcings have an indirect effect on the precipitation. December 1991 was associated with unusually low values of the MJO index, which favours high rainfall, as well as with El Niño, eastern QBO and high SSN, which favour high variability. It is therefore not clear whether the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption had an effect. Since the precipitation anomalies at the Glorieuses and Mayotte are more or less local (Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data) and the effect of the Pinatubo volcanic cloud should be more widespread, it seems unlikely that Pinatubo was the cause. Islands at higher southern latitudes (south of Tromelin at 15.5° S) were not affected by the Pinatubo eruption in terms of sunshine duration, precipitation or temperature.

Spurious shifts in the pattern of diurnal variation of sea level pressure of reanalysis datasets

The main purpose of this work is to report the presence of spurious discontinuities in the pattern of diurnal variation of sea level pressure of the three reanalysis datasets from: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Science (R1), the NCEP and Department of Energy (R2), and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ERA-40). Such discontinuities can be connected to the major changes in the global observing system that have occurred throughout reanalyses years. In the R1, the richest period in discontinuities is 1956–1958, coinciding with the start of modern radiosonde observation network. Rapid increase in the density of surface-based observations from 1967 also had an important impact on both R1 and ERA-40, with larger impact on R1. The reanalyses show discontinuities in the 1970s related to the assimilation of radiances measured by the Vertical Temperature Profile Radiometer and TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounders onboard satellites. In the ERA-40, which additionally assimilated Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data, there are discontinuities in 1987–1989. The R1 also presents further discontinuities, in 1988–1993 likely connected to replacement/introduction of NOAA-series satellites with different biases, and to the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991, which is known to have severely affected measurements of infrared radiances for several years. The discontinuities in 1996–1998 might be partially connected to change in the type of radiosonde, from VIZ-B to VIZ-B2. The R2, which covers only satellite era (1979-on), shows discontinuities mainly in 1992, 1996–1997, and 2001. The discontinuities in 1992 and 2001 might have been caused by change in the satellite measurements and those in 1996–1997 by some changes in land-based observations network.

Uncertainties in mesopause temperature trend over Fort Collins, Colorado (41°N, 105°W), using the bootstrap Monte Carlo method

[1] Two methods, based on different assumptions, have been investigated for computing the uncertainty in the trend of 960 mesopause region temperature profiles taken over 20 years. In addition to the trend, the fitting model includes annual and semiannual variations, a solar effect, and an episodic term that can be associated with the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. In our standard procedure we assume that the unknown uncertainties of each measurement, and thus the weights of the observations, are constant with time and are determined by assuming that we have a good model. In addition we investigate including second derivatives along with first derivatives of the Hessian matrix. In the Monte Carlo bootstrap method one resamples the data with replacement to obtain new data sets which are fit to the model and yield a distribution of fitting parameters. The standard deviation of the distribution for a parameter is taken to be the uncertainty in the parameter. A possible assumption to justify this method is that the data are “independent and identically distributed.” Although we have not been able to justify the assumptions of either method, the two methods support each other since they give essentially the same results.

Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century

We estimate the rise in global average sea level from satellite altimeter data for 1993–2009 and from coastal and island sea-level measurements from 1880 to 2009. For 1993–2009 and after correcting for glacial isostatic adjustment, the estimated rate of rise is 3.2 ± 0.4 mm year−1 from the satellite data and 2.8 ± 0.8 mm year−1 from the in situ data. The global average sea-level rise from 1880 to 2009 is about 210 mm. The linear trend from 1900 to 2009 is 1.7 ± 0.2 mm year−1 and since 1961 is 1.9 ± 0.4 mm year−1. There is considerable variability in the rate of rise during the twentieth century but there has been a statistically significant acceleration since 1880 and 1900 of 0.009 ± 0.003 mm year−2 and 0.009 ± 0.004 mm year−2, respectively. Since the start of the altimeter record in 1993, global average sea level rose at a rate near the upper end of the sea level projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. However, the reconstruction indicates there was little net change in sea level from 1990 to 1993, most likely as a result of the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991.

Changes in precipitation with climate change

There is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However, the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1°C warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extratropical rain or snow storms, or tropical cyclones, supplied with increased moisture, produce more intense precipitation events. Such events are observed to be widely occurring, even where total precipitation is decreasing: 'it never rains but it pours!' This increases the risk of flooding. The atmo- spheric and surface energy budget plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle, and also in the slower rate of change that occurs in total precipitation than total column water vapor. With modest changes in winds, patterns of precipitation do not change much, but result in dry areas becoming drier (generally throughout the subtropics) and wet areas becoming wetter, especially in the mid- to high latitudes: the 'rich get richer and the poor get poorer'. This pattern is simulated by climate mod- els and is projected to continue into the future. Because, with warming, more precipitation occurs as rain instead of snow and snow melts earlier, there is increased runoff and risk of flooding in early spring, but increased risk of drought in summer, especially over continental areas. However, with more precipitation per unit of upward motion in the atmosphere, i.e. 'more bang for the buck', atmo- spheric circulation weakens, causing monsoons to falter. In the tropics and subtropics, precipitation patterns are dominated by shifts as sea surface temperatures change, with El Nino a good example. The volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to an unprecedented drop in land precipitation and runoff, and to widespread drought, as precipitation shifted from land to oceans and evaporation faltered, providing lessons for possible geoengineering. Most models simulate precipitation that occurs prematurely and too often, and with insufficient intensity, resulting in recycling that is too large and a lifetime of moisture in the atmosphere that is too short, which affects runoff and soil moisture.

Global dimming and brightening: An update beyond 2000

This study investigates recent variations in downwelling surface solar radiation inferred from a comprehensive set of ground‐based observational records updated for the period 2000–2005. Surface radiation data beyond the year 2000 are particularly interesting as they provide independent and complementary information to the ambitious satellite programs which became operational with the beginning of the new millennium. The surface records suggest a continuation of the surface solar brightening beyond 2000 at numerous stations in Europe and the United States, as well as parts of east Asia (Korea). Surface solar radiation variations in Europe after 2000 are dominated by a large positive anomaly in the year 2003 with its unprecedented summer heat wave, exceeding 10 Wm−2 on an annual and 20 Wm−2 on a summer mean basis in central Europe. The brightening seen at sites in Antarctica during the 1990s, influenced by a recovery from the low atmospheric transparency after the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption in 1991, fades after 2000. The brightening tendency also seems to level off at sites in Japan. In China there is some indication for a renewed dimming, after the stabilization in the 1990s. A continuation of the long‐lasting dimming is also noted at the sites in India. Overall, the available data suggest continuation of the brightening beyond the year 2000 at numerous locations, yet less pronounced and coherent than during the 1990s, with more regions with no clear changes or declines. Therefore, globally, greenhouse warming after 2000 may be less modulated by surface solar variations than in prior decades.

Combined surface solar brightening and increasing greenhouse effect support recent intensification of the global land‐based hydrological cycle

The surface net radiation (surface radiation balance) is the key driver behind the global hydrological cycle. Here we present a first‐order trend estimate for the 15‐year period 1986–2000, which suggests that surface net radiation over land has rapidly increased by about 2 Wm−2 per decade, after several decades with no evidence for an increase. This recent increase is caused by increases in both downward solar radiation (due to a more transparent atmosphere) and downward thermal radiation (due to enhanced concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse‐gases). The positive trend in surface net radiation is consistent with the observed increase in land precipitation (3.5 mmy−1 per decade between 1986 and 2000) and the associated intensification of the land‐based hydrological cycle. The concurrent changes in surface net radiation and hydrological cycle were particularly pronounced in the recovery phase following the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption, but remain evident even when discarding the Pinatubo‐affected years.

Simulating the effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption using the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model

The climate changes that occured following the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Phillippines on 15 June 1991 have been simulated using the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM). The model was forced by a reconstructed spatial-time distribution of stratospheric aerosols intended for use in long climate simulations. Four statistical ensembles of the AGCM simulations with and without volcanic aerosols over a period of 5 years following the eruption have been made, and the calculated fields have been compared to available observations. The model is able to reproduce some of the observed features after the eruption, such as the winter warming pattern that was observed over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the following winters. This pattern was caused by an enhanced Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere that developed due to aerosol heating of the tropics. This in turn led to a strengthening of the polar vortex, which tends to modulate the planetary wave field in such a way that an anomalously positive Arctic Oscillation pattern is produced in the troposphere and at the surface, favouring warm conditions over the NH. During the summer, the model produced a more uniform cooling over the NH.

Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering

The problem of global warming arises from the buildup of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels and other human activities that change the composition of the atmosphere and alter outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). One geoengineering solution being proposed is to reduce the incoming sunshine by emulating a volcanic eruption. In between the incoming solar radiation and the OLR is the entire weather and climate system and the hydrological cycle. The precipitation and streamflow records from 1950 to 2004 are examined for the effects of volcanic eruptions from El Chichón in March 1982 and Pinatubo in June 1991, taking into account changes from El Niño‐Southern Oscillation. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 there was a substantial decrease in precipitation over land and a record decrease in runoff and river discharge into the ocean from October 1991–September 1992. The results suggest that major adverse effects, including drought, could arise from geoengineering solutions.

Daily Microwave-Derived Surface Temperature over Canada/Alaska

Abstract The land surface temperature variation over northern high latitudes in response to the increase in greenhouse gases is challenging because of the lack of meteorological stations. A new method to derive the surface temperature from satellite microwave measurements that improves the frequency of measurements relative to that of infrared data is presented. The daily Special Sensor Microwave Imager 25 km × 25 km Equal-Area Scalable Earth Grid (EASE-Grid) dataset provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, is processed to derive the surface temperature using the method proposed by Fily et al. A normalization approach based on the 40-yr ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40; 2.5°) temperature diurnal cycle fitted for each pixel is applied to overcome the time acquisition variation of measurements as well as to interpolate missing data. An adaptive mask for discriminating between ice-free pixels and snow-free pixels is also applied. The resulting database is thus a new consistent hourly series of near-surface air temperatures during the summer (without snow). The mean accuracy is on the order of 2.5–3 K when compared with the synchronous in situ air temperature and different gridded datasets over Canada and Alaska. The trend over the last 10 yr confirms observed climate evolution: an increase in summer surface temperature of +0.09° ± 0.04°C yr−1, at the 90% confidence level, for Canada between 1992 and 2002, whereas a decrease of −0.15° ± 0.05°C yr−1, at the 95% confidence level, is observed for Alaska. Spatial and temporal anomalies show regional impacts of meteorological phenomena such as the El Niño extreme warm summer episode of 1998, the decrease in temperatures in 1992 in Canada following the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991, and the strong drought in the prairies in 2001. The annual sum of positive degree-days (thawing index) has been related to the permafrost distribution. The lower values of the derived thawing index (<1400 degree-days) are related well to the presence of continuous and dense discontinuous permafrost. The observed increase in the thawing index during the 1992–2002 period represents a decrease of classified permafrost area of 7%.

Reply to comment by T. M. L. Wigley et al. on “Climate forcing by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo”

Reply to comment by T. M. L. Wigley et al. on “Climate forcing by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo”

Reply to comment by A. Robock on “Climate forcing by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo”

[1] In our Pinatubo paper [Douglass and Knox, 2005a, hereinafter referred to as DK] we concluded that there was negative climate feedback and a short climate response time. Robock [2005, hereinafter referred to as R] claims that the outgoing long-wave radiation (LW) was incorrectly described as the forcing and that interchange of energy with the thermocline was unjustifiably neglected in determining our results. Although we made certain incorrect statements about the LW radiation, these were not part of our determination of the parameters. As to energy flow to the thermocline, as we argue elsewhere [Douglass and Knox, 2005b, hereinafter referred to as DK2], this flow is estimated be small and to affect our lifetime and sensitivities by less than 15%, not by a factor of three, as claimed.

Comment on “Climate forcing by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo” by David H. Douglass and Robert S. Knox

[1] Douglass and Knox [2005, hereinafter referred to as DK] present a confusing and erroneous description of climate feedbacks and the climate response to the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Their conclusions of a negative climate feedback and small climate sensitivity to volcanic forcing are not supported by their arguments or the observational evidence. As pointed out by Wigley et al. [2005a], this is the consequence of assuming a one-box representation for the climate system, and ignoring energy exchange with the deep ocean. [2] In the description of their analysis, DK make a fundamental mistake in describing the problem. They claim to use ‘‘standard linear response theory,’’ but they confuse the response with the forcing. They say, ‘‘The LW [longwave] effect is by definition the forcing function DF for the climate, represented by the measured surface temperature anomaly DT.’’ LW radiation changes, however, are produced by both the presence of a forcing agent, in this case stratospheric aerosols, and the response of the climate system. It is the instantaneous net radiation change with no response that is the forcing. The temperature anomaly is the response to forcing, and not the forcing itself, and the LW changes reflect both the true forcing and the effects of the temperature response. [3] In spite of their statement to the contrary, DK apparently do use the correct forcing, as characterized by their equation (5) and illustrated in their Figure 2. Confusion arises because the forcing they use is a scaled version of the estimated aerosol optical depth changes, which represents the true forcing, yet they continually refer to the scaled optical depth as the LW changes. That the two items are different is clear from DK’s Figure 1. [4] The forcing of climate change can be defined as the change in the net radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the tropopause, or the surface, without any response of the climate system, or allowing for the stratosphere to equilibrate. Stenchikov and Robock [1995], Houghton et al. [1996], and Hansen et al. [2005] discuss the standard definitions of radiative forcing and considerations for forcing from aerosols, which are not uniformly mixed in the atmosphere. For our purposes, it is sufficient to consider the forcing at the top of the atmosphere, allowing for no equilibration [Stenchikov and Robock, 1995; Stenchikov et al., 1998]. This forcing can be defined as: